How do you feel now about this team, as opposed to earlier in the off-season?

[8slim]

Feel the same. Which is to say I can see this edition of the Sox being anything from a fringe wild card contender to a flaming wreck.

I still have grave concerns about our offense. Maybe Yoshida and Cassas will mash, but we need to see it happen for a couple months. The only guy in the lineup I feel good about right now is Devers. Everyone else? If things break our way we have a bunch of OPS+ 105-115 guys. If not, lots of sub 100s.

Not that I'm breaking any new ground here, but the rotation worries me as well. Old, oft-injured guys. Old, below-average guys. Young guys who have never strung together 20+ starts in a season, let alone 20+ good starts.

Bullpen looks better on paper, but when it comes to bullpens who really knows? It's so damn volatile year-to-year.

The balanced schedule will likely help, and maybe that keeps our floor higher than catastrophe.

By Opening Day I'll choose to be optimistic. I just want to watch good, winning baseball this spring and summer. Just me to Labor Day as a playoff contender, then I can throw my attention towards the Pats. Last year post-June sucked so much.

 

[YTF]

I like the moves from an offensive standpoint better than defensive. Duvall could have a bounce back year. He has some power, and this lineup, in my opinion, is lacking power (Turner is not the HR hitter he used to be, we lost JD, Story, and Bogey). But...signing Duvall instead of a SS means Kike at SS instead of CF. An outfield defense that includes Verdugo, Duvall, and Yoshida is NOT GOOD!

 

[YTF]

Seriously though, is it worse or better than what was out there for most of last year when you consider how much time Kike missed and that JBJ was replaced?

 

[pedro1999mvp]

I should add to my previous post that I do like the Mondesi deal, but I worry about his health. It doesn't look like he will start the year off healthy. If Mondesi can get healthy and play a majority of the year at SS and allows Kike to play more CF, then I like our defense a lot better.

 

[Archer1979]

I'm about the same as I was. If things bounce their way, the off-season is basically a wash. It's going to comedown to how well the rookies perform. If Bello and Casas are for real, this team could contend for the wild card. If not, its going to be an exciting trade deadline as they don't have to pretend that they're contending to appease Devers.

 

[Remagellan]

I'm going to be as optimistic as I always am going into a season. Losing X hurts, but I agree with the decision to not match what he got from the Padres. Given better health luck than they enjoyed last season, this team should compete for a wildcard spot, and I trust Bloom will add to it if needed (or scrap what he can if they flame out again). Bloom is in the midst of building the next great Red Sox team, and I will continue to "trust the process" until there's evidence that he's not up to the job. I may be giving him too much credit for two seasons ago and not enough blame for 2020 or last season, but I'm still holding to the hope that in the end he'll transform the franchise into one like the Astros or the Dodgers---perennial WS contenders with farm systems that can allow them to be judicious about retaining talent.

 

[budcrew08]

The Red Sox pitching list of fWAR last year is crazy...

Hill 1.8 (gone)
Schreiber 1.7
Wacha 1.5 (prob gone)
Pivetta 1.5
Whitlock 1.4
Bello 1.3
Eovaldi 1.0 (gone)
Houck 0.7
Brasier 0.5
Crawford 0.5
Strahm 0.3 (gone)
Davis 0.3 (gone)
Sale 0.2
Barnes 0.1 (gone)
Sawamura 0.0 (gone)
Winckowski 0.0
Feliz -0.1 (gone?)
Familia -0.1 (gone)
Ort -0.1
German -0.2 (prob gone)
Bazardo -0.2 (gone)
Seabold -0.2 (gone)
Danish -0.4 (gone)
Darwinzon -0.5 (gone)
Diekman -0.5 (gone)
Robles -0.7 (gone)

So to be approximately as bad as last year (6th worst in the Majors), they would only need to replace 2.1 fWAR. That seems like an incredibly low bar.

How did Brasier even have half a point of WAR?

 

[nvalvo]

How did Brasier even have half a point of WAR?

fWAR is FIP-based, remember. rWAR, based on R/9, gave him -0.8.

 

[opes]

This off-season was built for 2024. Unless everyone strikes gold, the chances of making the playoffs in the AL east is slightly above zero. There will be some fun watching the young guys playing, but I have my doubts this is a playoff caliber team.

 

[chawson]

I voted "a bit better." Not sure if the original question indexes is to the first day of the offseason vs. the absolute nadir of morale after Xander left, but either way I feel pretty good about where things are going. I think a lot of interesting stuff will happen this season, and much of it we can't see from here.

I'm really jazzed about Yoshida and Mondesi in particular. I'm gonna go out on a limb and make a bold prediction that Mondesi has a 2023 fWAR within 1.0 of Xander in San Diego. (Good thing I'm not a betting man.) ZIPS has Bogaerts projected for 4.4 fWAR in 146 games and 622 PA; it has Mondesi projected for 2.2 fWAR in 80 games and 320 PA. It's possible, and man that would be fun to see.

Here's another way of looking at it. the Sox spent $176.2 million in committed money on seven free agents (Yoshida, Jansen, Turner, Martin, Kluber, Duvall and Joely Rodriguez). What other combination of players, using their total contract dollars, would you have preferred we had signed for roughly $175-180M?

Example: Abreu ($58.50) + Eflin ($40M) + Haniger ($43.50) + Lugo ($15) + Heaney ($25) = $182

I wanted them to sign each of these guys, but I genuinely think I like our group better.

 

[mauf]

I voted “about the same,” but I wasn’t as bearish earlier in the off-season as others. I think they’re a high-variance .500 team, so unless they’re really, really good or really, really bad, I won’t be surprised.

 

[JM3]

I voted "a bit better." Not sure if the original question indexes is to the first day of the offseason vs. the absolute nadir of morale after Xander left, but either way I feel pretty good about where things are going. I think a lot of interesting stuff will happen this season, and much of it we can't see from here.

I'm really jazzed about Yoshida and Mondesi in particular. I'm gonna go out on a limb and make a bold prediction that Mondesi has a 2023 fWAR within 1.0 of Xander in San Diego. (Good thing I'm not a betting man.) ZIPS has Bogaerts projected for 4.4 fWAR in 146 games and 622 PA; it has Mondesi projected for 2.2 fWAR in 80 games and 320 PA. It's possible, and man that would be fun to see.

Here's another way of looking at it. the Sox spent $176.2 million in committed money on seven free agents (Yoshida, Jansen, Turner, Martin, Kluber, Duvall and Joely Rodriguez). What other combination of players, using their total contract dollars, would you have preferred we had signed for roughly $175-180M?

Example: Abreu ($58.50) + Eflin ($40M) + Haniger ($43.50) + Lugo ($15) + Heaney ($25) = $182

I wanted them to sign each of these guys, but I genuinely think I like our group better.

Hmm...I'll take...

Yoshida $90m
Heaney $25m
Turner $21.7m
Segura $17m
Martin $13.5m
Pollock $7m
Joely $2m
Weaver $2m

For a total of $178.2m.

So I'm replacing Kenley/Kluber/Duvall with Heaney/Segura/Pollock/Weaver.

I am concerned about regression from Kenley & think that's a bit of an overpay just to say they have a closer. Houck is fine in the role if they want to play him there, or Martin, or Schreiber. I'm not really that concerned about it. He's projected for somewhere between 0.3 & 0.8 fWAR depending on which system you look at & he costs $16m/year for 2 years. I don't hate the signing, but I think there is better use for this budget.

I chose Heaney as the additional starter over Eflin (cost), Lugo (never pitched more than 101.1 innings in a season, 1 fWAR combined in the last 3 years), & Quintana (some injury concerns). Heaney was in the 1st percentile in hard hit, 2nd percentile in average exit velocity, 4th percentile in barrels, 97th percentile in strikeouts, 96th percentile in chase rate & whiff rate, etc. The Dodgers got rid of his curveball in favor of a slider & it seemed to pay great dividends. Kluber is ok, but I think Heaney's stuff makes him much more interesting.

I think adding a professional middle infielder like Segura gives the Red Sox a lot more flexibility to play Hernandez in CF, which I think is their best defensive lineup. He isn't really a SS anymore, but I'm sure he would be ~ok there. Hardly ever strikes out, consistently a positive offensive & defensive player.

I think I'm choosing Pollock over Duvall, although it's kinda close. Especially with Segura in the mix. Pollock & Duvall profile similarly defensively, but Pollock has been a consistently better player throughout their careers & I am much more comfortable with his 18.6% K-rate compared to Duvall's 32.1%. Duvall had an above average BABIP for him last year & hit .213. Pollock's was well below his average & he hit .245. Obviously lol batting average, but I think Pollock is a strong bounce back candidate. Career 113 wRC+ compared to Duvall's 96.

& I'm adding Luke Weaver to the mix. He was awful last year, but I think he's a legit steal at $2m & expect him to bounce back to being a 1 fWAR or more pitcher. I think he's run bad on injuries & BABIP, but has good stuff & just needs to refine his pitch mix. He had a 6.56 ERA last year but a 2.69 FIP. At a minimum, I think he could be an effective bulk reliever.

 

[chawson]

Hmm...I'll take...

Yoshida $90m
Heaney $25m
Turner $21.7m
Segura $17m
Martin $13.5m
Pollock $7m
Joely $2m
Weaver $2m

For a total of $178.2m.

So I'm replacing Kenley/Kluber/Duvall with Heaney/Segura/Pollock/Weaver.

I am concerned about regression from Kenley & think that's a bit of an overpay just to say they have a closer. Houck is fine in the role if they want to play him there, or Martin, or Schreiber. I'm not really that concerned about it. He's projected for somewhere between 0.3 & 0.8 fWAR depending on which system you look at & he costs $16m/year for 2 years. I don't hate the signing, but I think there is better use for this budget.

I chose Heaney as the additional starter over Eflin (cost), Lugo (never pitched more than 101.1 innings in a season, 1 fWAR combined in the last 3 years), & Quintana (some injury concerns). Heaney was in the 1st percentile in hard hit, 2nd percentile in average exit velocity, 4th percentile in barrels, 97th percentile in strikeouts, 96th percentile in chase rate & whiff rate, etc. The Dodgers got rid of his curveball in favor of a slider & it seemed to pay great dividends. Kluber is ok, but I think Heaney's stuff makes him much more interesting.

I think adding a professional middle infielder like Segura gives the Red Sox a lot more flexibility to play Hernandez in CF, which I think is their best defensive lineup. He isn't really a SS anymore, but I'm sure he would be ~ok there. Hardly ever strikes out, consistently a positive offensive & defensive player.

I think I'm choosing Pollock over Duvall, although it's kinda close. Especially with Segura in the mix. Pollock & Duvall profile similarly defensively, but Pollock has been a consistently better player throughout their careers & I am much more comfortable with his 18.6% K-rate compared to Duvall's 32.1%. Duvall had an above average BABIP for him last year & hit .213. Pollock's was well below his average & he hit .245. Obviously lol batting average, but I think Pollock is a strong bounce back candidate. Career 113 wRC+ compared to Duvall's 96.

& I'm adding Luke Weaver to the mix. He was awful last year, but I think he's a legit steal at $2m & expect him to bounce back to being a 1 fWAR or more pitcher. I think he's run bad on injuries & BABIP, but has good stuff & just needs to refine his pitch mix. He had a 6.56 ERA last year but a 2.69 FIP. At a minimum, I think he could be an effective bulk reliever.

Defensible! Though in your equation you'd have to bump Ort or Brasier from the 40, and we all know that's not happening

I'm with you about Kenley. He seems like an adorable dude and I'm psyched he plays for us, but I'm a little concerned we get stuck with the hot potato on that one. He gets a ton of fly balls to right field, more than twice as often as he does left field, which would seem to make him a decent fit for Fenway.

I like our chances with Arroyo over signing Segura, who would have contradicted the no bad vibes theme of the offseason (Segura's former teammates Pivetta and Paxton might have lent some insight here). I would've been fine with Pollock, but Duvall seems like the better defensive outfielder at this point.

Heaney was a good fit, too bad. Would have been nice in hindsight to have given him 2/$20 or so last offseason, even though Bloom would have gotten hammered for that in the press. Both he and Eflin signed deals with teams that play in states with no income tax and stadiums a three-hour drive from their hometowns. What are you gonna do.

 

[JM3]

Defensible! Though in your equation you'd have to bump Ort or Brasier from the 40, and we all know that's not happening

I'm with you about Kenley. He seems like an adorable dude and I'm psyched he plays for us, but I'm a little concerned we get stuck with the hot potato on that one. He gets a ton of fly balls to right field, more than twice as often as he does left field, which would seem to make him a decent fit for Fenway.

I like our chances with Arroyo over signing Segura, who would have contradicted the no bad vibes theme of the offseason (Segura's former teammates Pivetta and Paxton might have lent some insight here). I would've been fine with Pollock, but Duvall seems like the better defensive outfielder at this point.

Heaney was a good fit, too bad. Would have been nice in hindsight to have given him 2/$20 or so last offseason, even though Bloom would have gotten hammered for that in the press. Both he and Eflin signed deals with teams that play in states with no income tax and stadiums a three-hour drive from their hometowns. What are you gonna do.

I'm trading Brasier for the next Theo Denlinger (or doing something with Dalbec as he is no longer on the Major League roster if I replace Duvall with Segura/Pollock).

I think having an additional professional middle infielder they trust & allowing Hernandez to play mostly CF would be nice. If Segura's a bad guy, though, yeah fine. I'm still ok with signing Andrus to that spot if the $$$ is right. & with Hernandez freed up to play more CF, Pollock's defense becomes less of a concern (although I think they rate fairly similarly anyway).

& yeah, just because I think this is the best use of this fictional budget I could come up with doesn't mean that they realistically could have signed any of the guys who signed with other teams for the actual price they signed at.