How excited are you for this offseason?
- Thread starter BaseballJones
- Start date
If it's true (no idea if it is but that's the scuttlebutt) that Daniels has rocketed up the boards and could go top 5, that means that the top 5 guys are likely, in some order: Williams, Maye, Harrison, Daniels, and Fashanu (or Alt, depending on which tackle a team prefers).
Any of those five would get me excited. Well, I wouldn't be excited about a tackle, but I could totally see the logic as they need major help on the offensive line (in addition to all their other needs). But if the Pats finish with the 4th pick, that means that they can get any of the top 3 QBs or Harrison.
If BB is in charge, I could easily see them trading down from that spot though, and adding another pick, and then maybe grabbing the #2 or #3 WR prospect with their first pick and then going QB in round 2.
I think we will get some offense heavy. I just hope BB is still the coach and the guy picking the groceries with some more voices in the room.
It wouldnt surprise me if he is here that we end up going QB or Tackle with the first rounder.
Fine but doesn't change it. If Joe Alt is the next Penei Sewell, that leaves us no closer to winning next year than in the future. I think the only scenario where I'm not annoyed by them taking OT with their first pick is if they get a king's ransom to trade down. A guy basically needs to be Orlando Pace / Johnathan Ogden to be worthy of using a top 5 pick on OT for me. Hoping a QB works out in the 2nd and beyond is irresponsible, and they're not going to have a high enough draft pick to grab one in the future.
Offensive linemen are handcuffed by how good their QB play is. Joe Thomas was a career loser. Trent Williams too until he went to the 9ers.
OTH I'm more than okay with them trading up, and packaging next year's first or second or whatever and double dipping this year. But unless they address QB, nothing else really matters (well, assuming the QBs pass scouting)
This is generally how I feel, depending on a few key variables. If they end up with a top 3 pick and Bill is still around, well then I’ll be ready for some fun.
If they fire Bill and draft an OT then they could easily be worse next year and get another high draft pick. Not saying I want them to go that way, but that's how bad the talent is on offense. Injuries could also dictate things. The only way I could justify a top 5 OT this year is if they double dip, as you say, and grab Penix or whoever they like best from the non-Williams, Maye, Daniels group. And that's going to be expensive. I guess McCarthy could drop to R2, but he's a cut below.
I like the former more than the latter. I'm talking myself into the elite WR with the first round pick and hoping to get one of the nearly-as-good QBs in the second round. There is a lot of risk in taking the high QB when you don't have decent targets. Mostly I am just giving up on the top two pick because they are 100% beating the Jets this weekend.
Assuming MHJ is gone by the time the Pats fifth pick comes around, who do you like for a WR? I ask because I agree that the Pats are beating the Jets this weekend. I don't agree with all your posts, but I am definitely with you on this one.
Thankfully, there's a lot of really good WRs likely coming out in this year's draft.
Nabers, LSU
Coleman, FSU
Egbuka, Ohio State
Odunze, Washington
Mitchell, Texas
Legette, S Carolina
Just to name a few off the top of my head. Nabers, for example, is mocked in these spots:
Bleacher Report: #8 (NYJ)
Walter Football: #5 (NYG)
Sports Illustrated: #8 (NYJ)
Fantasy Pros: #7 (Ten)
Tankathon: #7 (Ten)
Mock Draft Database: #4 (Ari)
CBS Sports: #13 (NO)
Yahoo Sports: #5 (NYG)
Drafttek: #7 (Ten)
33rd Team: #4 (Ari)
So who knows, but the combination of all this suggests that Nabers is a legit top 7 pick. Top 5? Sure, if he's the guy you love and you're at 5 and he's "projected" to only go #7 or #8, it's not that much of a reach. Point is, he's a really, really freaking good WR prospect that the Pats would probably be very happy with if they got him.
Odunze. I live in Seattle so I'm a bit biased but he checks all the boxes. Just a pure playmaker.
If BB wanted to go crazy, he could sign Wilson to a 3-year relatively modest deal (modest by QB standards), and then draft either Odunze or Nabers in the first round, and then grab Xavier Worthy or Legette or Thomas (LSU) in the second round, and then add OT in the middle rounds.
Adding two really good WRs in the draft, plus a significant QB upgrade in Wilson, then add OL help mid-rounds...that would represent a major improvement for the offense as a whole. Would seem kind of nuts to draft two WRs with their first two picks but it's not like those WR prospects aren't really good, because they are.
Adding two really good WRs in the draft, plus a significant QB upgrade in Wilson, then add OL help mid-rounds...that would represent a major improvement for the offense as a whole. Would seem kind of nuts to draft two WRs with their first two picks but it's not like those WR prospects aren't really good, because they are.
Wilson has some real incentive to sign for league min next year for somebody, DEN contract has offset so it's really just who is paying him, he'll get the same either way.
Though one change I'd have from your proposal.... a mid-round OT isn't going to be a starter year 1 likely, maybe never. I think SMU had it somewhere, but a huge percentage of starting LT in the league came from round 1 (usually the top). You'd probably be better off going Alt/Fashanu then the WR, and signing someone like Evans/Higgins.
Fear: Belichick returns with all this power in tact. BOB is either sacked off or demoted and Josh McDaniels is back for round 3 or 4 or whatever it is at this point. Jimmy G is brought in to be the QB.
Well they have the money for that. So that could work.
Draft Fashanu in round 1. Draft Legette or Thomas at WR in round 2. Heck, there's enough quality WRs they could even add a good WR prospect in round 3. If they have the #5 pick, that's picks #5, #37, and #69.
CBS Sports' WR rankings has the following guys rated at these spots overall:
#40 Worthy, Texas
#74 Legette, South Carolina
#77 Thomas, LSU
#78 Polk, Washington
So they could sign Wilson for low dollars (probably), then draft Fashanu at OT in round 1 and get a 10 year starting tackle who would have a legit shot at being a multiple time pro bowl player. Then draft Worthy and Thomas at WR, giving you two shots at a legit stud playmaker at the WR position - and heck, maybe both pan out. And then they could also sign Higgins to give them the veteran stud at WR.
That would make their WR corps:
Higgins
Douglas
Thornton
Worthy
Thomas
JuJu (they can't really cut him due to cap reasons - I think it costs them more to cut him than to keep him)
Boutte
That would be a massive improvement over what they've got this year.
Then they could add a TE and RB later in the draft. And still have plenty of $$ left over to address other needs.
The Pats will probably take a guard and a defensive tackle and corner though. LOL.
Tee Higgins is a pipe dream as a UFA, he will be franchised as CIN has a healthy amount of cap space and are coming off a lost season. You can pay the freight in picks if you want him or maybe trade for him but virtually zero % chance he is available as a FA. Mike Evans will go to FA but the question is does he chase a ring or go to the highest bidder? Have to assume KC will be interested in his services.
My biggest concern going into the draft is the simple fact Bill hasn't drafted an impact X receiver in over 20yrs. You have to go back to Deion Branch to find an impactful X receiver drafted under Bill. I don't think he will take an X in the first 10 picks and instead try to find value in the 2nd-4th rd as he has done with regularity and end up with another Taylor Price, Bethel Johnson, John Dobson, Chad Jackson, Josh Boyce, Brandon Tate, N'Keal, Tyquan etc.
My biggest concern going into the draft is the simple fact Bill hasn't drafted an impact X receiver in over 20yrs. You have to go back to Deion Branch to find an impactful X receiver drafted under Bill. I don't think he will take an X in the first 10 picks and instead try to find value in the 2nd-4th rd as he has done with regularity and end up with another Taylor Price, Bethel Johnson, John Dobson, Chad Jackson, Josh Boyce, Brandon Tate, N'Keal, Tyquan etc.
That would be...uninspiring.
They desperately need three things in this upcoming draft and/or offseason: QB, OT, and WR. And not "meh" guys either. They need impact players at those positions.
That's a pretty big ask for a single offseason. Getting an impact player at one of those positions would normally be considered a successful offseason. Patriots are set up to possibly do it but it is still a tall task and I'm not seeing many FAs at those positions that would classify as "impact" guys. Most of those that are will likely be franchised.
This is exactly where I am. Excited to see what they do, terrified they'll boof the QB pick and sentence themselves to another three years of suckitude.
Regardless of who is at the helm in the front office, the chance of getting impact players at all 3 of those, or even 2, is slim. Free agency for QB (outside of Cousins) is awful. OT might actually be worse in terms of veterans available. WR has some names but the best guys (Higgins, maybe Evans, mahbe Pittman) are likely to be franchised or are guys (Ridley) who are improvements but not guys I’d consider “impact” signings.
the first round pick needs to be an impact player at one of those 3 spots. Maybe they get lucky and the 2nd round pick is also (more likely at WR than QB or OT)
My expectations are pretty low (which means there's a lot of room to be pleasantly surprised). But the way I see it:
- If they keep BB, there will be a lot of low-upside moves. The coaching staff will remain relatively unchanged, as will the FO. I think he'll view the draft differently than we do - because he always does - and the pipe dream of us solving the offense this offseason will remain just that.
- If they move on from BB, I worry that the Krafts are going to fill his role with a familiar face like Josh McD, which is the worst possible route for them to take outside of hiring someone like Ron Rivera
- The ideal to me is keeping BB but him coming to the conclusion that he needs more help on his staff and in the FO - I just don't think he's going to do that and the other two options above seem more realistic
- I hope that they don't blow all of their free agency cash this year. I'd rather they make a lot of small bets on rookies and/or young players with upside and roll over the cap space until a point in time where they know what they have at QB. I would not be excited for a 2021 redux where they just spend on whatever's out there because they feel like they have to - that's how you end up with the Agholor and Jonnu contracts. There's no need to rush this thing unless BB's record chasing is a higher priority to the franchise than winning long-term.
- If they keep BB, there will be a lot of low-upside moves. The coaching staff will remain relatively unchanged, as will the FO. I think he'll view the draft differently than we do - because he always does - and the pipe dream of us solving the offense this offseason will remain just that.
- If they move on from BB, I worry that the Krafts are going to fill his role with a familiar face like Josh McD, which is the worst possible route for them to take outside of hiring someone like Ron Rivera
- The ideal to me is keeping BB but him coming to the conclusion that he needs more help on his staff and in the FO - I just don't think he's going to do that and the other two options above seem more realistic
- I hope that they don't blow all of their free agency cash this year. I'd rather they make a lot of small bets on rookies and/or young players with upside and roll over the cap space until a point in time where they know what they have at QB. I would not be excited for a 2021 redux where they just spend on whatever's out there because they feel like they have to - that's how you end up with the Agholor and Jonnu contracts. There's no need to rush this thing unless BB's record chasing is a higher priority to the franchise than winning long-term.
Yeah it's not going to be easy, but I think it's doable.
Step 1: Sign Russell Wilson as your QB. He's got gas in the tank still and his numbers are really solid. Again, I don't know why there's always issues with him but he's proven he can win with a not-so-great team around him, and he's way, way better than what the Pats have.
Step 2: Draft a stud OT with the first round pick. Not sexy, but I think that guy can likely step in right away and be solid.
Step 3: Draft WRs with their 2nd and 3rd round picks - there's tons of good ones available. Odds aren't high that both will hit, but I'd suggest that the odds are good that *one* of them will hit.
Step 4: Sign a good FA wide receiver. There's some great ones that are currently slated to be UFA, though who knows what will happen with them. And a bunch of not great but good ones too:
Evans
Higgins
Ridley
Samuel
Boyd
Bourne
Pittman
So with this plan you shore up QB for a couple of years, get your anchor OT for a decade, and add three WRs, completely revamping the WR corps.
Odds of that all working out swimmingly? Less than that it will. But it's still a legit plan moving forward.
Personally, I think I want the QB drafted in the first round rather than go with a vet like Wilson, but what I laid out is a legitimate path to becoming relevant very quickly.
I don’t think this will happen. If you want to run an offense based on timing and precision, Wilson cannot do it. This was his problem in Seattle and Denver. He can extend plays and improvise (though less and less as he ages) but doing what the Patriots expect him to do is not his strong suit.
I'm not on the Wilson train either, but to be fair, we don't know what the Patriots are going to want for an offensive system next season, because we don't even know who is going to be coaching the team at this point.
This whole offseason is going to be so fascinating on every level, especially if they move on from Bill (I hope they don't, but if I were betting on it, it feels like they are).
Russell Wilson has been dumped by 2 Super Bowl-winning coaches. Many of his teammates despise him. If he is the answer, what the hell is the question?
The question would be, “who is a better attainable QB than Bailey Zappe”. I share the same doubts on Wilson but wouldn’t mind taking a look under the hood as a short-term option in a world where we go with a non-QB in the first round. Certainly wouldn’t be my first choice though.
Sure, but in every single @BaseballJones post, he wants to keep BB and thinks that's the right choice for the team, so the RW hypothetical is posed with the idea that BB is staying. I think it's a pretty low likelihood that BB would want RW considering his playing style, though not impossible being that he signed Cam Newton and changed the offense for him.
I think basically everything I suggested as a potential path forward has virtually no chance of actually happening. Just for the record.
That offseason would be thoroughly unexciting for me. Not necessarily a bad offseason depending on your view of Wilson over the next few years but not one that would have me excited.
Step 1: Not a big fan of Wilson. Think he is mediocre at this point. Prefer to get a young QB early with upside although may be difficult depending on draft position.
Step 2: In a trade down, sure. As a top 5 pick, solid but not a particularly exciting pick. Not sure the separation between the current top 2 and Latham and some of the others is worth the premium. Pats will need two OTs since both starters are FA. Hopefully, Onwenu is back.
Step 3: What do you define as hit? Make a contribution? Sure. Be a true #1? Unlikely.
Step 4: I would expect Higgins, Pittman and probably Ridley to be franchised. I think Evans will likely target a top contender but maybe. I like Boyd and I am in favor of re-signing Bourne but neither are the true #1 type everyone is asking for.
And to be clear, I don't personally think anything you suggest would be a bad idea, I just don't see BB on the RW train and I worry our ideas of "stud tackle" and "stud WR" will be very different than Bill's definitions.
One thing about JC Latham is that I noticed he was playing RT during the Playoff game against Michigan. Apparently he's stayed there since beginning of 2022 season?
Can he play LT? Does it matter? If we draft Penix later somehow, he'd be the blindside protector, but then where does that leave Onwenu if he re-signs?
Can he play LT? Does it matter? If we draft Penix later somehow, he'd be the blindside protector, but then where does that leave Onwenu if he re-signs?
WR is actually one of the few positions with a really good success rate after round 1, as far as hitting on a major talent.
In this year's draft, you had these guys going in rounds 2 and 3: Jordan Reed (#50 overall), Rashee Rice #54 (people shit on him, but he's having the same season than JuJu had last year in that offense), Tank Dell #69, Josh Downs at #79 and of course, a bunch of others later, like Pop in the 6th...
In 2022, you had Pickens, Pierce and Christian Watson in round 2
Nico Collins was a round 3 pick.
Higgins, Pittman, Deebo, AJ Brown, Metcalf were all round 2 picks.
Don't even get me started on tight ends and running backs.
The key is player evaluation. Obviously, there are massive studs like Ceedee and JJ, etc. that go early in round 1, but there is plenty of talent at the skill positions later in the draft that hit regularly, the Pats just suck at it for the most part in recent years. There are, of course, plenty of busts in rounds 2 onward, but there are a bunch in round 1 also. You just have to avoid the N'Keal's and Tyquan's of the world.
In this year's draft, you had these guys going in rounds 2 and 3: Jordan Reed (#50 overall), Rashee Rice #54 (people shit on him, but he's having the same season than JuJu had last year in that offense), Tank Dell #69, Josh Downs at #79 and of course, a bunch of others later, like Pop in the 6th...
In 2022, you had Pickens, Pierce and Christian Watson in round 2
Nico Collins was a round 3 pick.
Higgins, Pittman, Deebo, AJ Brown, Metcalf were all round 2 picks.
Don't even get me started on tight ends and running backs.
The key is player evaluation. Obviously, there are massive studs like Ceedee and JJ, etc. that go early in round 1, but there is plenty of talent at the skill positions later in the draft that hit regularly, the Pats just suck at it for the most part in recent years. There are, of course, plenty of busts in rounds 2 onward, but there are a bunch in round 1 also. You just have to avoid the N'Keal's and Tyquan's of the world.
Another case for the Wilson route would be that you might well pick up a lot of value trading down a few spots and still get your tackle (or trade down a few spots get a stud WR and use some of what you got to trade back up into the 1st for a tackle).
I mean, 1 of them "dumped" him by trading him for a huge haul to avoid paying him a huge contract. The other is Sean Payton who is an asshole and whose team won 1 superbowl but also.... is both an asshole and has had very weird QB choices once Brees was done.
Russ Wilson on a big contract.... absolutely a bad idea. Russ Wilson for almost nothing is an incredible positive value. He's still good and you'd be paying him so little it would be signifcantly LESS than a rookie 1st rounder.
Cannot think of a move that would annoy me more than this team using its first top 5 selection since McGinest on an offensive lineman. Bill or no Bill, this pick needs to be a QB or a WR - it would be nice if they had those things and you could use a premium pick on a franchise tackle, but in this league until you have that passing game, you're just not competing in the same world as the best teams.
100% agreed. Even with above-average stats, his team struggled much of the year, and Denver seems quite willing to lose a bunch of money to clean him from their slate. Baker Mayfield and Old Friend Jacoby Brissett are the tops of my list for transition vet QB on whom to spend cash, while drafting his replacement, an OT, a 2nd tier WR, and then defensive pieces. Spend further on replacement TE, RT (assuming Onwenu doesn't return), swing T, and one of the FA WRs that Baseball Jones listed, and we're back in business.
I think I have been by far the biggest Brissett supporter on this board..... it would be absolutely INSANE to pay him 5-10 times more money than Russell Wilson.
Maybe there's a misunderstanding. I'd expect Wilson to be paid most of what he's owed in salary/bonus for 2024, which is $42M. I surely would not pay Brissett anywhere near that. I expect he'll earn a 2 year deal somewhere though, likely $8-10M per year, given his limited (but good) play this season. The Cowboys game may earn him a bunch if Dallas decides to rest their starters and he plays well.
Wilson isn't getting traded, he'll get cut, which means he'll sign for almost nothing in 2024 since the Broncos have to pay him what he's owed, so why give them offset?
But what type of guarantee for 2025 and on will he get? If he has multiple suitors that is where teams will get creative.
IMO signing Russell Wilson would be the wrong move. He's not well liked, and he seems kind of washed to me. No interest. As stated above, I'd rather have Jacoby or Baker and draft a young QB over the next two years.
Aha, now I get it - I was going on the idea that Wilson would be traded, in order for Denver to come out with at least something to show for the money spent. Cutting him, so as to burn his godawful contract to the ground, makes a lot of sense for the acquiring team, of course. But if he's cut, he's choosing where to go, and it seems hugely unlikely he'd come to New England.
Oh yeah, it's a long-shot, but the situation people were talking about is one where you can get him on the cheap. It's a distant plan B to getting a potential franchise guy in the 1st round.
I doubt it happens, but... something you have to consider when you have an owner in his 80s... he might be more interested in the "sign former pro-bowl QB and go for it now over a rookie QB who might take a couple years or never be good at all" route.
Wilson is, right now, at worst an "average" starting QB in the NFL. He's had one bad season. One. 2022. Every other year in his career he's been no worse than average for an NFL starting QB, and most of the time, he's been a top-10 QB in the league.
What I don't get is the "not well liked" piece, which seems to be true, but I don't know why that would be the case. This year he's completing over 66% of his passes, has more than 3,000 passing yards, has 26 TD to just 8 INT, and has a passer rating in the top 10 in the NFL at 98.0. In 2019 and 2020 he took Seattle teams with mediocre or bad defenses to 11-5 and 12-4 records. He's won a Super Bowl. He's been to two. His career record as a starter is 115-72-1. He's a 9x pro bowler. He won the 2020 Walter Payton Man of the Year award (so again, I don't get why he's not well liked).
I don't see anything about him that shows he's washed up. He's not a top-5 QB at this point, but he's way, way, way better than what New England has thrown out there the past couple of seasons. If somehow they could get him for a pittance (no idea if that's possible) and/or an incentive-laden deal, that would free up their draft picks for tackles and receivers, which they desperately need. And would still leave them with tons of money to fix other roster issues.
Again, I'd still prefer they go out and get a stud QB in the draft. But this is a totally viable option for them.
Wilson isn't the answer. The hated by the teammates is the entire thing.
If the QB isn't a great leader, nothing else good can happen.(e.g Carson Wentz) Russ won the SB back in the day because he had an all world defense. He's put up good numbers. Good. But now he's much older and seems like a lot of drama. Pats are better off sticking with Zappe, if Russ is the other option. Not that Zap zap zap is ideal, but it's better than Russell Wilson.
But I do know you love Russ, so I get your view. But Russ is a loser.
I really don't love Russ. He's not my guy by any means (you know how bitter I am about having him as my fantasy QB). I just don't know why he's disliked. What's the reason for that? What is it about him? You don't win the Walter Payton man of the year award by being a dick. I believe everyone when people say he's not liked. I just don't know why he isn't.
Like I've said, I want the Pats to draft a QB in round one. But Wilson is light years better than Zappe is. Come on.
Probably not the best example. Wilson won the award due, at least in part, to his Why Not You charity. The same charity that has come under fire for exorbitant salaries to executives while a small percentage of money raised actually goes to charity.