So in the category of playing stupid - or maybe not - I'm curious what you all think about this. Let's start this discussion with the raising of the mound following the 1968 season, since that year skewed numbers terribly. So from 1969-2023, here's the data, using 3-year increments:
A few things to point out. (aside from the fact that when I hid the rows, I screwed up and didn't hide 2000, which threw off the every three year thing. Oh well)
The runs per game went up, up, up in the "steroid era", and then has come back down, to a point where it's barely above what it was in 1975. Now, runs went up in 2023 to 4.61 with the rule changes regarding the shift, but you can see that in 2022, runs were not appreciably higher than they were back in the days of Yaz, Lynn, and Boomer.
But how those runs were scored is very different now than it was then. In 1975 they scored 4.21 runs on 8.75 hits, with a .258 batting average. They were putting 28.59 balls in play per game. But in 2022, they scored 4.28 runs on just 8.16 hits, with a .243 batting average, and were putting just 24.41 balls in play.
Along those lines, here were the HR and strikeout numbers in 1975 and 2022:
1975: 0.70 homers, 4.98 K
2022: 1.07 homers, 8.40 K
2022 vs. 1975: 52.9% more homers, 68.7% more strikeouts, 14.6% fewer balls in play, and all that for a modest 1.7% more runs scored.
So yes, what we have all known here is that there's a lot more homers, a LOT more strikeouts, a lot fewer balls put in play, and about the same number of runs being scored. So this is the "launch angle revolution", right? Guys swinging for the fences, even with two strikes.
Now what I want to know is: is the higher strikeout number due mainly to the pitching, or to the changes in hitting approach? As in, as more pitchers are throwing a hell of a lot harder, with nastier stuff (every bullpen now seems to have 5 guys throwing 97, as opposed to even 20 years ago, when the Sox' bullpen had not a single guy that threw 96 or more - Timlin could reach 95 and Embree, I guess, every once in a blue moon, hit 96 but sat at 93-94), is that making life so much harder for the hitters that they figure, look, we aren't going to get many hits, so let's make them count - if we're going to get a hit let's have it be a homer?
Or is it that hitters started swinging for the fences and that made life easier on pitchers, who also just happened to be throwing a lot harder across the board? As in, with two strikes, instead of shortening the swing and just trying to put the ball into play (which was the standard hitting approach for well over 100 years), guys were saying, screw it, I'm still going for it, and that made it much easier for pitchers to strike them out?
Which came first? What's the driving force behind these numbers?
And will we see hitters adapt? In 2023, with rule changes, we saw the runs go up (to 4.62 per game), hits go up to 8.40, and homers go up to 1.21, but still, strikeouts go up to 8.61, and balls put in play go down, to 24.26.
So is this approach the best approach for scoring runs? What is driving these changes? Is baseball better or worse for it?
