In Chaim Do You Trust?

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Was it really “ridiculously depleted”? I mean, Casas and Bello say hi. I mean, there’s a trade off here- the minor league system is better now, but the major league talent is…..not.

In some ways, I think the DD firing was a severe overreaction to Sale, Price, and Eovaldi all getting hurt in 2019. I guess I will wait until the book comes out, but was Dombrowski the only one in favor of resigning Sale and Nate or something?

 

[jon abbey]

Was it really “ridiculously depleted”?

Yes, in terms of quantity. I remember putting the numbers in the initial Bloom thread a few times, but Fangraphs ranks everyone in a system they think is an actual prospect. That winter when DD was fired, BOS had something like 20-25 prospects they considered worth ranking, now they are up to 61 (third highest in MLB).

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=3,1&team=&type=100&filter=&pos=

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Was it really “ridiculously depleted”? I mean, Casas and Bello say hi. I mean, there’s a trade off here- the minor league system is better now, but the major league talent is…..not.

Ridiculously depleted might be a bit of an exaggeration (depending on what we're talking about) but it can't be denied that there was an extended period where the system wasn't producing much in the way of prospects that graduated to quality MLB players. During Dombrowski's tenure, it was Benintendi debuting in 2016, Devers in 2017, and little else since (a couple relievers, Chavis, I suppose). The pipeline that was rich in the Cherington years (JBJ, Bogaerts, Betts, Vazquez, ERod, etc) dried up under Dombrowski. That all we can point to is Casas and Bello debuting three years after Dombrowski was fired says a lot.

The goal is for the minor league system to consistently produce talent that supplements the major league roster. That hasn't happened for a few years and the quality parts of the roster have aged and gotten expensive.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Sure, agree that the drafts under DD look pretty meh, hopefully Bloom has done better, guess we’ll know in the coming years. But none of the Sox drafts since the rules changed in ‘13 look super awesome (with the obvious caveat that it’s too soon to know about the last few).

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yes, in terms of quantity. I remember putting the numbers in the initial Bloom thread a few times, but Fangraphs ranks everyone in a system they think is an actual prospect. That winter when DD was fired, BOS had something like 20-25 prospects they considered worth ranking, now they are up to 61 (third highest in MLB).

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=3,1&team=&type=100&filter=&pos=

Isn’t quality a lot more important than quantity when it comes to prospects? I guess I’m wondering…the Sox had so many major league holes last year….and so many minor league prospects…why didn’t Bloom convert some of that surplus of minor league talent into major league help last year, especially in advance of the dreaded 40-man roster crunch?

 

[streeter88]

@Petagine in a Bottle beat me to it, but improving quantity and not trading prospects away so easily is only one part of it. The other is improving coaching and player development methods and philosophies.

What is the progress Bloom has made in this regard?

 

[jon abbey]

Isn’t quality a lot more important than quantity when it comes to prospects? I guess I’m wondering…the Sox had so many major league holes last year….and so many minor league prospects…why didn’t Bloom convert some of that surplus of minor league talent into major league help last year, especially in advance of the dreaded 40-man roster crunch?

Yes to the first part, but also you don't always know until guys get to the bigs. For instance, Oswaldo Cabrera was never regarded as a top 100 guy but he made a huge impact after being promoted this year (1.6 bWAR in 154 ABs). Robinson Cano was another guy who was never a top 100 prospect and blossomed almost immediately after being promoted.

The reason I think the Fangraphs quantity measure is important is that it is a quick and easy way to show the depth of a system, especially since generally you don't want to trade your top prospects, but instead trade from the tier/s below.

 

[streeter88]

This seems a little extreme at this snapshot in time. The Mookie thing has been relitigated to oblivion, and maybe let's wait until Xander and Devers are actually not re-signed…

I don’t know if I’m being that unfair. The Bogarts and Devers negotiations in season were… unsuccessful… and seemed almost to be counter-productive. And so far the offseason efforts do not appear to be bearing fruit either, though I have this wildly optimistic daydream that at least one player is already resigned and they’re just waiting to announce it until the end of the WS out of courtesy.

 

[kazuneko]

My only point with Bloom is that he didn't acquire JBJ to do anything other than maybe sneak out one decent season, at least defensively, before he was let go, and that the only players involved in that transaction that Bloom cares about at all are the prospects because he is trying to rebuild the franchise from the ground up. They've made it pretty clear, and for people to be continually trying to judge Bloom's performance on a year's results when he didn't push *any* of his chips in seems pointless.

Your view of Bloom's assessment of JBJ has been largely incoherent. You initially asserted he wasn't ever the plan in RF but only ended up there because of injuries, before you eventually circled back to saying that maybe he was the plan (in a platoon with Arroyo) before finally suggesting that Bloom thought he could "sneak out one decent season" from him.
In fact, the only consistent aspect of your perspective seems to that the Renfroe trade, and with it Bloom's plan for the OF, isn't something that anyone should judge Bloom for because "Chaim didn't care about the 2022 part all that much" (as you previously asserted).
So yeah, once again your defense of Bloom reads more like criticism, and I very much doubt that even a truth-serum dosed version of Chaim himself would come close to supporting your exaggerated take on this issue. I mean, I get it, Chaim wants' to build a perennial contender fueled by a highly productive farm system, and towards that end he is looking to acquire prospects, especially if he thinks he can send out players that he sees as overvalued and replaceable to get them. But that doesn't mean "he didn't care about the 2022" Red Sox, and there is no way in hell he trades Renfroe unless he thought that he could replace him. Now, maybe he thought Renfroe over-performed in 21 and so his expected production in 22' would be easily replaced - because it wasn't likely to be high anyway. If that was the case, he was dead wrong. Renfroe was at least as good a hitter in 22' as he was in 21' and by most metrics he was an improved fielder. Maybe he thought JBJ would bounce back and provide just as much value as Renfroe would. But he was also dead wrong on that. I guess it's also possible that he thought he'd be able to sign Suzuki or some other OFer, or that Duran would step in to cover the hole created by the Renfroe trade. But of course no signing ever materialized and Duran couldn't hit, and so underperformed defensively, that it's not even clear he's capable of defending at the major league level. In the end Bloom created a large hole that he never filled with the only benefit being the acquisition of two prospects - and neither of them look like future major league regulars (as the better of the two, Binelas, ended up taking a few steps back in 22'). So the Renfroe/JBJ swap was not only bad for 22' it is likely of little or no value for the team's future either- and there is no way in hell that was Bloom's plan when he pulled the trigger on it.
Bloom has had a rough year assessing talent, both at the major leagues and with prospects and this resulted in a series of bad decisions that undermined his ability to construct a competitive roster, and for this he should be criticized. Now he's certainly had better years in the past, but just like it's hard to feel super positive about Sale after yet another injury riddled season, its also hard to feel high on Bloom right now. Lets hope he can do better going forward..

 

[lexrageorge]

One unsuccessful trade (one which actually may be successful as the prospects are still developing) does not mean Bloom lost the ability to judge talent. Sox still miss the playoffs even with Hunter Renfroe.

 

[JM3]

Was it really “ridiculously depleted”? I mean, Casas and Bello say hi. I mean, there’s a trade off here- the minor league system is better now, but the major league talent is…..not.

In some ways, I think the DD firing was a severe overreaction to Sale, Price, and Eovaldi all getting hurt in 2019. I guess I will wait until the book comes out, but was Dombrowski the only one in favor of resigning Sale and Nate or something?

2018 Red Sox top 10 prospects...

1. Jay Groome, LHP

2. Michael Chavis, 3B

3. Tanner Houck, RHP

4. Bryan Mata, RHP

5. Cole Brannen, OF

6. Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP

7. Sam Travis, 1B

8. Mike Shawaryn, RHP

9. Alex Scherff, RHP

10. Marco Hernandez, SS/2B

​

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Ok, sure, but look at the major league talent the 2018 team had, and compare it to the current club. Total talent under control sure seems better then than it does now. Also worth noting that several of the top prospects in the system now (Casas and Bello) were there in 2018, too, so perhaps that says something about prospect lists. Interestingly, only two of the Sox top 20 prospects (and none of the top 18) were acquired via trade; so while the the big league club has been weakened, it hasn’t directly correlated in better prospects (although of course tanking in 2020 and landing Mayer was huge).

I’m also not sure it’s totally all DD’s fault, Cherington’s drafts were pretty awful too. Hell, Dombrowski was here for just over four years and just three full seasons. It’s not like he got a ton of rope.

(Ultimately, I just wonder if dismissing DD was a little too hasty. Was Henry not in favor of the extensions to Sale and Eovaldi? Because it seems like the team reacted really quickly to some injuries and underperformance in 19 and completely changed direction. Maybe this was all discussed at the time and I missed it but the way the Sox have treated their GM’s under Henry has been a little weird to me).

 

[JM3]

Ok, sure, but look at the major league talent the 2018 team had, and compare it to the current club. Total talent under control sure seems better then than it does now. Also worth noting that several of the top prospects in the system now (Casas and Bello) were there in 2018, too, so perhaps that says something about prospect lists. Interestingly, only two of the Sox top 20 prospects (and none of the top 18) were acquired via trade; so while the the big league club has been weakened, it hasn’t directly correlated in better prospects (although of course tanking in 2020 and landing Mayer was huge).

I’m also not sure it’s totally all DD’s fault, Cherington’s drafts were pretty awful too. Hell, Dombrowski was here for just over four years and just three full seasons. It’s not like he got a ton of rope.

(Ultimately, I just wonder if dismissing DD was a little too hasty. Was Henry not in favor of the extensions to Sale and Eovaldi? Because it seems like the team reacted really quickly to some injuries and underperformance in 19 and completely changed direction. Maybe this was all discussed at the time and I missed it but the way the Sox have treated their GM’s under Henry has been a little weird to me).

Casas & Bello were 18 & 19 at the time. Top ranked prospects are usually ones closer to the majors.

DD has 1 speed...all-in. Once he goes all-in you're just in the inevitable downward spiral.

What that list really shows is that there was nothing in the pipeline to supplement the major league roster in the foreseeable future.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Ok, sure, but look at the major league talent the 2018 team had, and compare it to the current club. Total talent under control sure seems better then than it does now. Also worth noting that several of the top prospects in the system now (Casas and Bello) were there in 2018, too, so perhaps that says something about prospect lists. Interestingly, only two of the Sox top 20 prospects (and none of the top 18) were acquired via trade; so while the the big league club has been weakened, it hasn’t directly correlated in better prospects (although of course tanking in 2020 and landing Mayer was huge).

I’m also not sure it’s totally all DD’s fault, Cherington’s drafts were pretty awful too. Hell, Dombrowski was here for just over four years and just three full seasons. It’s not like he got a ton of rope.

(Ultimately, I just wonder if dismissing DD was a little too hasty. Was Henry not in favor of the extensions to Sale and Eovaldi? Because it seems like the team reacted really quickly to some injuries and underperformance in 19 and completely changed direction. Maybe this was all discussed at the time and I missed it but the way the Sox have treated their GM’s under Henry has been a little weird to me).

It's been a popular narrative that DD was fired in large part because of the extensions to Sale and Eovaldi, but personally, I don't think that had anything to do with it. He served his purpose, pretty much perfectly. He pushed all the chips into the middle of the table and won a title in record setting fashion. It was time for the next chapter, and he isn't the guy to do that. I don't think it's a whole lot more complicated than that.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

These things take time though- doesn’t the fact that Casas and Bello were in the system but not top prospects say something? Here we are, 3+ years after DD left, and he was only here for 4 years, and 5 of the top 10 and 11 of the top 20 prospects in what is now deemed at least an above average system, (and Bello), are DD guys.

 

[E5 Yaz]

It's been a popular narrative that DD was fired in large part because of the extensions to Sale and Eovaldi, but personally, I don't think that had anything to do with it. He served his purpose, pretty much perfectly. He pushed all the chips into the middle of the table and won a title in record setting fashion. It was time for the next chapter, and he isn't the guy to do that. I don't think it's a whole lot more complicated than that.

But we must make it more complicated, because the opinions of other people are wrong

 

[RedOctober3829]

The biggest offseason in years for this team now begins. Hopefully Chaim can deliver some upgrades. I believe he will.

 

[kazuneko]

One unsuccessful trade (one which actually may be successful as the prospects are still developing) does not mean Bloom lost the ability to judge talent. Sox still miss the playoffs even with Hunter Renfroe.

When you trade your starting catcher at the deadline in a season that looks increasingly hopeless it's not a big deal if the prospects you get back never make an impact. What made the Renfroe trade unique is that Bloom created a big hole prior to the season, and never filled it - after a year when the team was in contention. You can't do that just for prospects, unless you don't care about being competitive (which doesn't work in Boston, especially a year after a playoff run). It was called "baffling"on the day of the trade and it only looks more so now. So yeah, I suppose Binelas or Hamilton could develop into something, but that looks less likely now than on the day of the trade, and even if they did it doesn't mean Bloom's plan for RF wasn't poorly constructed.
And, as others have pointed out, the 22' Sox ended up relying on a lot of guys at multiple positions that didn't deserve the faith Bloom placed in them. The RF situation was the most noteworthy because Bloom created that hole himself, but there were also far too many ABs for Dalbec, Duran and Cordero, and that doesn't even get into the issues that emerged with the bullpen and starting rotation.

 

[ponch73]

I was ambivalent about Chaim when I responded to the poll although I do think he deserves more time. I then spent some time crunching the numbers on all of his roster moves, and I found some interesting takeaways.

1. Chaim is generally value-added. Looking at all of free agent acquisitions, waiver wire moves and trades over his three year tenure shows that he has added value (as measured by WAR) to the major league roster, even on a net basis. He's added total WAR of 38 at an average cost of $4.4 million per WAR (he's spent $167 million in payroll for that 38 WAR). In comparison, players that he's jettisoned via trade or outright release have generated total WAR of 16 at an average cost of $5.8 million per WAR (he's shed $93 million in payroll for that 16 WAR). So, that's something.

2. Where Chaim shines is off the waiver wire. Not only has he had three notable successes here already (Whitlock, Arroyo, Schreiber), but he's also got a reasonably low failure rate (4 of 13) on waiver wire pickups that make the major league roster. His ability to date to add value to the roster on the margins at minimal cost is outstanding. His waiver work has generated total WAR of 9 at an incredible average cost of only $1.0 million per WAR.



3. Chaim generally takes a beating from Red Sox faithful for the Mookie Betts trade. But that trade doesn't look quite as bad through the numbers if you are willing to concede that Mookie would have left via free agency anyway (he had turned down multiple offers from the Sox already) and you consider the relative cost and remaining years of control of the players involved at the time of the trade. I think Chaim deserves to be let off the hook for this specific criticism even if he didn't make up the 4+ of average annual WAR that made its way to the Dodgers.



4. Chaim's grade for his full body of work on the trading front is mixed, mostly because he got absolutely pantsed in the JBJ-Renfroe deal by taking on $17.5 million in salary commitments to make the major league roster worse. One common theme from his trading track record is an apparent tendency to overvalue the "call option" aspect of multiple lottery pick prospects coming back in trades. This seems to be borne out in not only the Betts and Renfroe trades, but also the Benintendi and Ottavino transactions. The jury is still out on Wong, Downs, Binelas, Hamilton, Winckowski and German, but I suspect Chaim would love do-overs in all of those instances. The Pivetta and McGuire deals offer some small consolation, but Bloom's hit ratio on trades is disappointing.







5. On the free agency front, Chaim has been generally cautious in doling out large, multi-year commitments. His average cost of roughly $5.5 million per WAR has been in line with his trade work. This isn't surprising given the salary cap constraints that have existed until this point in his tenure. It might not make some of the posters here very happy, but Chaim might be best served continuing to focus on shorter-duration, sub $10M AAV deals where he's seen some success (Kike, Wacha, Renfroe, Refsnyder). And none of his failures in that price range (Garrett Richards, Jake Diekman, Kevin Plawecki) have really hamstrung the team meaningfully or for very long.



6. I'd love to know what role, if any, Cora played in the Renfroe-JBJ, Marwin Gonzalez and Benintendi transactions, and whether his opinion and or affection/disaffection with any of those players helped sway Chaim into making an ultimately-suboptimal transaction. Are those failed moves 100% on the front office or does Core deserve some responsibility for his evaluation of four guys he had managed or coached?

 

[scottyno]

3. Chaim generally takes a beating from Red Sox faithful for the Mookie Betts trade. But that trade doesn't look quite as bad through the numbers if you are willing to concede that Mookie would have left via free agency anyway (he had turned down multiple offers from the Sox already) and you consider the relative cost and remaining years of control of the players involved at the time of the trade. I think Chaim deserves to be let off the hook for this specific criticism even if he didn't make up the 4+ of average annual WAR that made its way to the Dodgers.

Agreed in general that he did fine on the Mookie trade when you look at the value of what they actually gave up, but just to be fair, Mookie wasn't actually paid 27m in 2020, he only made 10m because of the shortened season.

 

[ponch73]

Agreed in general that he did fine on the Mookie trade when you look at the value of what they actually gave up, but just to be fair, Mookie wasn't actually paid 27m in 2020, he only made 10m because of the shortened season.

Your point is well taken. It's not fair to show Mookie's lower WAR than usual in 2020 (constrained by a pandemic-shortened schedule) next to an overstated salary he wasn't actually paid. The lower salary changes the calculus (Chaim's trades would actually be net negative on a $/WAR basis) although there was no way that Chaim could have anticipated that turn of events in early February 2020.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Ok, sure, but look at the major league talent the 2018 team had, and compare it to the current club. Total talent under control sure seems better then than it does now. Also worth noting that several of the top prospects in the system now (Casas and Bello) were there in 2018, too, so perhaps that says something about prospect lists. Interestingly, only two of the Sox top 20 prospects (and none of the top 18) were acquired via trade; so while the the big league club has been weakened, it hasn’t directly correlated in better prospects (although of course tanking in 2020 and landing Mayer was huge).

In 2018, that roster had Devers and Benintendi (5.0 bWAR) making a million dollars combined, and Betts, Bradley, and Bogaerts (18.1 bWAR) combined making roughly what JD Martinez (6.7 bWAR) got by himself. That's five starters for the price of one, essentially. Great bang for the buck. The only regular starters in the 2022 lineup (call it guys who made 70+ starts) making under $5M were Bobby Dalbec, Alex Verdugo, Christian Arroyo, and Franchy Cordero (1.4 combined bWAR).

Cheap quality players go a long way toward having the flexibility to pay star veterans to fill gaps. The Sox have been lacking in that department, leading to more scrap heap buys to take up the slack. Hopefully that won't be necessary for much longer and the likes of Casas and Bello and Whitlock and Houck are just the start of a more steady stream of impact players to come over the next few seasons.

 

[BaseballJones]

Was it really “ridiculously depleted”? I mean, Casas and Bello say hi. I mean, there’s a trade off here- the minor league system is better now, but the major league talent is…..not.

Not....YET.

But the hope with what Bloom is doing is that it soon will be, and that Boston will be seeing an influx of outstanding cost-controlled talent consistently coming up through the system that they'll then be able to use that huge talent and financial advantage to sign high priced stars at other positions.

This is the best way to build a consistent contender/champion. I don't think there's any doubt about that. It's how Houston did it (albeit they did it after having a bunch of absolutely dreadful seasons - from 2009-2014 they won 74, 76, 56, 55, 51, and 70 games, respectively), it's how the Dodgers have done it, it's how Atlanta has done it, etc. We didn't pay much attention to the down years those teams had before they got great because, well, we as Red Sox fans didn't care about those other teams. So what if Houston was an absolute disaster those six years? Meant nothing to us at all. Didn't pay any attention whatsoever to them then. But now they're obviously a juggernaut and they've figured it out. What Chaim is doing is trying to build THAT, but we're not in the juggernaut stage of this yet; we're in the years building the juggernaut (hopefully it gets to that point). But we as Sox fans DO pay attention to Boston's years before the juggernaut, and it's not very fun. I'm sure for Houston fans it wasn't very fun to endure those six godawful seasons either, but I bet every one of them would happily do all this all over again.

 

[Chainsaw318]

Where’s the talent on the team? They have exactly four players under contract who had 2+ WAR last year (Devers, Story, Pivetta,

Ok, sure, but look at the major league talent the 2018 team had, and compare it to the current club. Total talent under control sure seems better then than it does now. Also worth noting that several of the top prospects in the system now (Casas and Bello) were there in 2018, too, so perhaps that says something about prospect lists. Interestingly, only two of the Sox top 20 prospects (and none of the top 18) were acquired via trade; so while the the big league club has been weakened, it hasn’t directly correlated in better prospects (although of course tanking in 2020 and landing Mayer was huge).

I’m also not sure it’s totally all DD’s fault, Cherington’s drafts were pretty awful too. Hell, Dombrowski was here for just over four years and just three full seasons. It’s not like he got a ton of rope.

(Ultimately, I just wonder if dismissing DD was a little too hasty. Was Henry not in favor of the extensions to Sale and Eovaldi? Because it seems like the team reacted really quickly to some injuries and underperformance in 19 and completely changed direction. Maybe this was all discussed at the time and I missed it but the way the Sox have treated their GM’s under Henry has been a little weird to me).

Questions about the system and why there isn’t already the young top-end talent on team may be missing the forest for the trees and underestimating the knock-on effect to the player development pipeline and this the MLB team of a bunch of events.

It gets lost how poor the system became, not only on current prospects, through middling to poor drafts from 2015 -2019, but also though other means, such as getting 5 international free agent signings voided from 2015-16, and being barred from that market for the next year.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/red-sox-international-penalties.html

That’s a large crop of guys, 1-2 of which could have popped and made the roster by now as pieces or contributing players, been trade ammo, or allowed others to be without scraping the system bare.

Then there are other penalties, poor timing luck and tragedy - such as losing a 2nd round pick and it’s draft-pick pool money as part of the the Astros/Cora/video review investigation for the 2020 draft, then having that pandemic-draft converted into a 5 pick draft where you have now lost 20% of your picks as you hope to rebuild a system.

And then the tragic passing of 17 year old Daniel Flores during cancer treatment. Flores, already highly regarded, was a switch hiring catching prospect and received a large bonus from the team, over 3 million, and then was diagnosed and had died within a year.

There seems like there’s a large gap in the talent pipe the past few years, and those are some less obvious reasons why. Illustrates how truly hard and vitally important all levels of acquisitions are, and why this FO’s direction is one I mostly agree with.

 

[OCD SS]

I was ambivalent about Chaim when I responded to the poll although I do think he deserves more time. I then spent some time crunching the numbers on all of his roster moves, and I found some interesting takeaways.

1. Chaim is generally value-added. Looking at all of free agent acquisitions, waiver wire moves and trades over his three year tenure shows that he has added value (as measured by WAR) to the major league roster, even on a net basis. He's added total WAR of 38 at an average cost of $4.4 million per WAR (he's spent $167 million in payroll for that 38 WAR). In comparison, players that he's jettisoned via trade or outright release have generated total WAR of 16 at an average cost of $5.8 million per WAR (he's shed $93 million in payroll for that 16 WAR). So, that's something.

2. Where Chaim shines is off the waiver wire. Not only has he had three notable successes here already (Whitlock, Arroyo, Schreiber), but he's also got a reasonably low failure rate (4 of 13) on waiver wire pickups that make the major league roster. His ability to date to add value to the roster on the margins at minimal cost is outstanding. His waiver work has generated total WAR of 9 at an incredible average cost of only $1.0 million per WAR.

View attachment 57269

3. Chaim generally takes a beating from Red Sox faithful for the Mookie Betts trade. But that trade doesn't look quite as bad through the numbers if you are willing to concede that Mookie would have left via free agency anyway (he had turned down multiple offers from the Sox already) and you consider the relative cost and remaining years of control of the players involved at the time of the trade. I think Chaim deserves to be let off the hook for this specific criticism even if he didn't make up the 4+ of average annual WAR that made its way to the Dodgers.

View attachment 57272

4. Chaim's grade for his full body of work on the trading front is mixed, mostly because he got absolutely pantsed in the JBJ-Renfroe deal by taking on $17.5 million in salary commitments to make the major league roster worse. One common theme from his trading track record is an apparent tendency to overvalue the "call option" aspect of multiple lottery pick prospects coming back in trades. This seems to be borne out in not only the Betts and Renfroe trades, but also the Benintendi and Ottavino transactions. The jury is still out on Wong, Downs, Binelas, Hamilton, Winckowski and German, but I suspect Chaim would love do-overs in all of those instances. The Pivetta and McGuire deals offer some small consolation, but Bloom's hit ratio on trades is disappointing.

View attachment 57274

View attachment 57275

View attachment 57276

5. On the free agency front, Chaim has been generally cautious in doling out large, multi-year commitments. His average cost of roughly $5.5 million per WAR has been in line with his trade work. This isn't surprising given the salary cap constraints that have existed until this point in his tenure. It might not make some of the posters here very happy, but Chaim might be best served continuing to focus on shorter-duration, sub $10M AAV deals where he's seen some success (Kike, Wacha, Renfroe, Refsnyder). And none of his failures in that price range (Garrett Richards, Jake Diekman, Kevin Plawecki) have really hamstrung the team meaningfully or for very long.

View attachment 57277

6. I'd love to know what role, if any, Cora played in the Renfroe-JBJ, Marwin Gonzalez and Benintendi transactions, and whether his opinion and or affection/disaffection with any of those players helped sway Chaim into making an ultimately-suboptimal transaction. Are those failed moves 100% on the front office or does Core deserve some responsibility for his evaluation of four guys he had managed or coached?

This is a great post. Bringing up Cora's (or ownership's) input is a good point as Bloom is taking responsibility for Red Sox operations, but it's not just him.

I think if there's a question it has to be how these numbers compare to other GMs, especially in regards to #2 with the waiver wire/ Rule V, etc. With the generally low payroll cost of players at that level of MLB, it only takes one hit to push a Gm into a very high $/war score.

 

[moondog80]

So...player can sign with other teams starting this Friday? I know it's not like the NBA or NFL, much more a slow burn, but still fun to look forward to.

 

[AlNipper49]

So...player can sign with other teams starting this Friday? I know it's not like the NBA or NFL, much more a slow burn, but still fun to look forward to.

Friday at 12:01 is when I'd drop my 3/180 offer to Judge. It would be done precisely to mess with the Yankees. It would not get signed but it would put 60AAV into Judges head. His rational head would dismiss this, but late at night as the big bigger is falling asleep, this is the type of thing to start dancing around in there. I picture a little dude that looks like George Burns sitting on his shoulder saying "60 million is 60 million, Aaron!"

 

[chawson]

One unsuccessful trade (one which actually may be successful as the prospects are still developing) does not mean Bloom lost the ability to judge talent. Sox still miss the playoffs even with Hunter Renfroe.

This is where I’m at. A lot of the interminable relitigation of the JBJ/Renfroe deal — which has way less significance than people seem to believe — seems like misplaced anger about the Mookie trade.

We don’t know how Binelas/Hamilton turns out, but we aren’t factoring that we likely wouldn’t have two years of an extremely cheap Rob Refsnyder going forward if we don’t trade Renfroe there. Maybe Refsnyder reverts back somehow, but he’s a completely different hitter after the Driveline rebuild.

 

[bosockboy]

Friday at 12:01 is when I'd drop my 3/180 offer to Judge. It would be done precisely to mess with the Yankees. It would not get signed but it would put 60AAV into Judges head. His rational head would dismiss this, but late at night as the big bigger is falling asleep, this is the type of thing to start dancing around in there. I picture a little dude that looks like George Burns sitting on his shoulder saying "60 million is 60 million, Aaron!"

I’d offer 6/300.

 

[Ganthem]

This is where I’m at. A lot of the interminable relitigation of the JBJ/Renfroe deal — which has way less significance than people seem to believe — seems like misplaced anger about the Mookie trade.

We don’t know how Binelas/Hamilton turns out, but we aren’t factoring that we likely wouldn’t have two years of an extremely cheap Rob Refsnyder going forward if we don’t trade Renfroe there. Maybe Refsnyder reverts back somehow, but he’s a completely different hitter after the Driveline rebuild.

That is what I think a lot of people are failing to understand. In order to be a consistently succesful team, you need to build the foundation for it first. That foundation is the minor leagues. When Bloom took over there was nothing. The 2020 season made it apparent how devoid of talent the farm was when the best player to emerge from that year was Phillip Valdez. Bloom's job up to this point is to to acquire as much minor league talent as possible in order to allow the team to sign players to gigantic contracts that a lot of fans are clamoring for. Player acquisition is always going to be hit or miss. Not every player drafted by Bloom is going to turn into a major leaguer, not every player that Bloom signs is going to live up to their contract and not every trade Bloom makes is going to produce something of quality. That being said the kevatching over the JBJ trade is insane. He got two prospects and the book is out and even if plan A or B is to sign/trade for an outfielder JBJ as a plan C was not a horrible idea. Another thing a lot of fans are forgetting is that players have off years, only to rebound the following year. Also Durran probably played into the calculation. Despite the fact, a lot of fans seem to believe they can size up a player after 100 at bats, the truth is the gap between the minors and majors are large. It wasn't a wild leap to think that if JBJ didn't work out or something happen to one of the outfielders, Durran could step in and contribute. The biggest point is who cares. Hunter Renfroe was not going to save last season. Last season did not go to shit because JBJ was in right field. In fact, I would say that was not even one of the top three problems the team faced

I think this off season is Bloom starting to move to the next phase of his plan. The farm is not there yet, but it is close. Guys like Bello and Casas can make it easier for Bloom to hand out large contracts and not worry about being totally screwed if they don't work out. That being said if this team is not ready for prime time by 2024, then it is perhaps time to at least put Bloom on the hot seat. At the end of the day, you can either get the big flashy moves which might lead to a WS title, but will inevitably lead to a period of sucking. Or you can methodically build the team, so you can potentially win the WS and consistently make the playoffs.

 

[Diamond Don Aase]

Then there are other penalties, poor timing luck and tragedy - such as losing a 2nd round pick and it’s draft-pick pool money as part of the the Astros/Cora/video review investigation for the 2020 draft, then having that pandemic-draft converted into a 5 pick draft where you have now lost 20% of your picks as you hope to rebuild a system.

The loss of a second-round draft pick in 2020 created a challenge for Bloom, just as the loss of Simon Muzziotti and a year-long international signing ban had caused complications for Dombrowski. But the truncated nature of the 2020 Draft itself should have been advantageous to Boston accumulating useful depth relative to other organizations.

With undrafted free agents limited to identical $20,000 signing bonuses, teams were left to offer opportunity and development. A system as allegedly depleted as the Red Sox’ should have offered ample opportunity compared to other organizations. Yet two minor league seasons later, Boston has nothing of note to complement its four drafted players.

The Tigers have a top 100 prospect in Wilmer Flores; the Rays have the Arizona Fall League’s most dominant reliever in Evan Reifert; the Cubs have multiple prospects and minor league home run leader Matt Mervis; and the Astros have outfielder Justin Dirden, whose offensive performance in Double-A was superior to that of the prospects the Red Sox acquired for Christian Vazquez. Undrafted players signed by the A’s, Blue Jays, Giants, Nationals, Orioles, Phillies, Rangers, Reds, Royals, and White Sox also merit mention. Boston has flotsam, jetsam, and an outside chance that Jose Garcia receives a non-roster invite to 2024 spring training to catch the final few innings of a split-squad contest against Saint Anselm.

 

[jon abbey]

The loss of a second-round draft pick in 2020 created a challenge for Bloom, just as the loss of Simon Muzziotti and a year-long international signing ban had caused complications for Dombrowski. But the truncated nature of the 2020 Draft itself should have been advantageous to Boston accumulating useful depth relative to other organizations.

With undrafted free agents limited to identical $20,000 signing bonuses, teams were left to offer opportunity and development. A system as allegedly depleted as the Red Sox’ should have offered ample opportunity compared to other organizations. Yet two minor league seasons later, Boston has nothing of note to complement its four drafted players.

The Tigers have a top 100 prospect in Wilmer Flores; the Rays have the Arizona Fall League’s most dominant reliever in Evan Reifert; the Cubs have multiple prospects and minor league home run leader Matt Mervis; and the Astros have outfielder Justin Dirden, whose offensive performance in Double-A was superior to that of the prospects the Red Sox acquired for Christian Vazquez. Undrafted players signed by the A’s, Blue Jays, Giants, Nationals, Orioles, Phillies, Rangers, Reds, Royals, and White Sox also merit mention. Boston has flotsam, jetsam, and an outside chance that Jose Garcia receives a non-roster invite to 2024 spring training to catch the final few innings of a split-squad contest against Saint Anselm.

Yankees got Elijah Dunham, who has turned into a top 20 prospect for them.

 

[chrisfont9]

I was ambivalent about Chaim when I responded to the poll although I do think he deserves more time. I then spent some time crunching the numbers on all of his roster moves,
2. Where Chaim shines is off the waiver wire. Not only has he had three notable successes here already (Whitlock, Arroyo, Schreiber), but he's also got a reasonably low failure rate (4 of 13) on waiver wire pickups that make the major league roster. His ability to date to add value to the roster on the margins at minimal cost is outstanding. His waiver work has generated total WAR of 9 at an incredible average cost of only $1.0 million per WAR.

Whitlock was acquired via the Rule 5 draft, not waivers.

 

[LostinNJ]

I get that people are crabby that two of the past three seasons, the team has not been competitive, and even the memory of knocking the Yankees and the Rays out of the 2021 tournament is not enough to mitigate the crabbiness. But it is nuts to state that this offseason is make-or-break for Bloom. The future of this franchise is in the young prospects Bloom has been collecting; we won't see contributions from them till 2024 or 2025. I would hate to see Bloom push all his chips in for 2023 when the free agent crop isn't especially enticing anyway. I'll be perfectly content if he patches together a group of short-term entertaining guys, like what Cherington did for 2013. Then the real test of his GM prowess will come a little later.

For those who claim there is no plan, you have to look at the drafts. He is going for athletic high school players with a strong hitting profile. He is distributing the money to get guys he really likes after the first round, though his first-round bargain guys are looking pretty good as well. This is an approach that requires tremendous patience. I don't know about you, but I am content to wait.

 

[BaseballJones]

I’d offer 6/300.

Holy crap. That would be insane. Paying a guy $50 million a year for six years. Nuts.

But....

It would put the Yankees in an interesting spot. Do they offer more than $50m a year? Or do they just go with like an 8 year, $350 deal ($43.8m/yr) deal? Less AVV, but more *overall* dollars. And would the Sox be good with paying that?

I mean, Judge would be PERFECT for the Red Sox. They need a RF. Judge plays a terrific RF. They need a RH power hitter. Judge is the best RH power hitter in the world. They need to get a star. Judge is as big a star as they get. They have $$ available. So they can spend it. They want to close the gap with the Yankees. Taking Judge from them does that.

It's absolutely perfect. But man, if Boston offered that and Judge signed it? Insane.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

It would be insane. What would you then offer Boagerts and Devers? Best case, you sign all three for ~$800m?

 

[chrisfont9]

And can any of them pitch?

 

[Chainsaw318]

The loss of a second-round draft pick in 2020 created a challenge for Bloom, just as the loss of Simon Muzziotti and a year-long international signing ban had caused complications for Dombrowski. But the truncated nature of the 2020 Draft itself should have been advantageous to Boston accumulating useful depth relative to other organizations.

With undrafted free agents limited to identical $20,000 signing bonuses, teams were left to offer opportunity and development. A system as allegedly depleted as the Red Sox’ should have offered ample opportunity compared to other organizations. Yet two minor league seasons later, Boston has nothing of note to complement its four drafted players.

The Tigers have a top 100 prospect in Wilmer Flores; the Rays have the Arizona Fall League’s most dominant reliever in Evan Reifert; the Cubs have multiple prospects and minor league home run leader Matt Mervis; and the Astros have outfielder Justin Dirden, whose offensive performance in Double-A was superior to that of the prospects the Red Sox acquired for Christian Vazquez. Undrafted players signed by the A’s, Blue Jays, Giants, Nationals, Orioles, Phillies, Rangers, Reds, Royals, and White Sox also merit mention. Boston has flotsam, jetsam, and an outside chance that Jose Garcia receives a non-roster invite to 2024 spring training to catch the final few innings of a split-squad contest against Saint Anselm.

This is a good post. I would agree to an extent and offer the counter - If you are a team without a good recent history of developing players, especially pitchers, like Boston, aren’t you at a disadvantage compared to other teams when all you can offer is the same money?

In a standard-size draft, many of these players would have been under team control or not play anywhere, rather than choose team where minor leaguers have been successful. It well may have been disadvantageous for this to be the case for this rebuilding system to not have the players tied to them.

 

[chawson]

It would be insane. What would you then offer Boagerts and Devers? Best case, you sign all three for ~$800m?

This is kind of a stilted view of multi-year contracts and does not strike me as a problem in and of itself. The Sox are already essentially committed to spending more than $900m by 2026 simply by having a baseball team.

For perspective, the Braves reported that they made about $500m in revenue this year alone.

View: https://twitter.com/aarongleeman/status/1588602172455153664?s=46&t=c6T3kKXX-ErKIM-frs-eIQ


This is not to advocate for signing all three or offering Judge a 6/$300m deal, but it’s an interesting chess move. It’s not likely to happen, but this FO seems to have recognized that it’s a lot safer to pay for hitting and develop/revamp pitching.

Adding Judge is the equivalent of a roughly 15-win(!) swing between the Sox and Yanks before factoring other moves. Hard to imagine that doesn’t secure us a playoff seat, which is the best you could hope for.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I think that dicking around with Boagerts and Devers and then offering Judge $50M per would probably not go over well, so if you are planning to make a offer like that, get X and Raffy signed first. But yeah, sure, they could do this, but it seems like a remarkable departure from the relative fiscal restraint of the recent few years.

 

[cantor44]

Ask me again after next offseason.

I think this is right. I'm skeptical but trying to remain open about Chaim. I understand the need to retrench the the farm, but I worry about his tendency to hedge everything, it seems. BUT - we are definitely looking at a two-year plan here: all the team's holes will not be solved this off season. But there does need to be clear progress this season, from Chaim's job to remain secure, eh?

I was ambivalent about Chaim when I responded to the poll although I do think he deserves more time. I then spent some time crunching the numbers on all of his roster moves, and I found some interesting takeaways.

1. Chaim is generally value-added. Looking at all of free agent acquisitions, waiver wire moves and trades over his three year tenure shows that he has added value (as measured by WAR) to the major league roster, even on a net basis. He's added total WAR of 38 at an average cost of $4.4 million per WAR (he's spent $167 million in payroll for that 38 WAR). In comparison, players that he's jettisoned via trade or outright release have generated total WAR of 16 at an average cost of $5.8 million per WAR (he's shed $93 million in payroll for that 16 WAR). So, that's something.

2. Where Chaim shines is off the waiver wire. Not only has he had three notable successes here already (Whitlock, Arroyo, Schreiber), but he's also got a reasonably low failure rate (4 of 13) on waiver wire pickups that make the major league roster. His ability to date to add value to the roster on the margins at minimal cost is outstanding. His waiver work has generated total WAR of 9 at an incredible average cost of only $1.0 million per WAR.

View attachment 57269

3. Chaim generally takes a beating from Red Sox faithful for the Mookie Betts trade. But that trade doesn't look quite as bad through the numbers if you are willing to concede that Mookie would have left via free agency anyway (he had turned down multiple offers from the Sox already) and you consider the relative cost and remaining years of control of the players involved at the time of the trade. I think Chaim deserves to be let off the hook for this specific criticism even if he didn't make up the 4+ of average annual WAR that made its way to the Dodgers.

View attachment 57272

4. Chaim's grade for his full body of work on the trading front is mixed, mostly because he got absolutely pantsed in the JBJ-Renfroe deal by taking on $17.5 million in salary commitments to make the major league roster worse. One common theme from his trading track record is an apparent tendency to overvalue the "call option" aspect of multiple lottery pick prospects coming back in trades. This seems to be borne out in not only the Betts and Renfroe trades, but also the Benintendi and Ottavino transactions. The jury is still out on Wong, Downs, Binelas, Hamilton, Winckowski and German, but I suspect Chaim would love do-overs in all of those instances. The Pivetta and McGuire deals offer some small consolation, but Bloom's hit ratio on trades is disappointing.

View attachment 57274

View attachment 57275

View attachment 57276

5. On the free agency front, Chaim has been generally cautious in doling out large, multi-year commitments. His average cost of roughly $5.5 million per WAR has been in line with his trade work. This isn't surprising given the salary cap constraints that have existed until this point in his tenure. It might not make some of the posters here very happy, but Chaim might be best served continuing to focus on shorter-duration, sub $10M AAV deals where he's seen some success (Kike, Wacha, Renfroe, Refsnyder). And none of his failures in that price range (Garrett Richards, Jake Diekman, Kevin Plawecki) have really hamstrung the team meaningfully or for very long.

View attachment 57277

6. I'd love to know what role, if any, Cora played in the Renfroe-JBJ, Marwin Gonzalez and Benintendi transactions, and whether his opinion and or affection/disaffection with any of those players helped sway Chaim into making an ultimately-suboptimal transaction. Are those failed moves 100% on the front office or does Core deserve some responsibility for his evaluation of four guys he had managed or coached?

Interesting numbers, thank you for putting that together, and trying to take an objective look at Bloom's yield. One caveat to part of the premise: if you are winning the $/WAR game, but your teams have a losing record, then that's a Pyrrhic victory. Of course resources have to be smartly distributed. But the competition is not who can pay less per WAR but whose team wins the most games. A team like the Red Sox have the flexibility to have some slack in what they pay per WAR, able to take on a bit of inefficiency. The team needs more top line talent, not any further clever routes to small savings.

 

[ponch73]

Whitlock was acquired via the Rule 5 draft, not waivers.

For my purposes, I'm grouping Rule 5 picks and waiver wire pickups together. The Rule 5 draft is an opportunity to pick up players unprotected by other MLB teams.

 

[MtPleasant Paul]

In evaluating Bloom, it might be helpful to compare the Sox and the Astros on the day four years ago when the Red Sox won the World Series. Both teams were comparable then although the Sox were clearly better. In the intervening four years the Astros have won three American League pennants and one World Series while the Red Sox have won essentially nothing.

What explains this? It wasn't payroll because the Red Sox have spent more money than Houston over the past four years. It wasn't because of the Mookie Betts trade because Houston also allowed stars to depart - Carlos Correia and George Springer.

The difference is that on this day four years ago the Houston farm system controlled the core of this year's team: Jeremy Pena, Kyle Tucker, Jordan Alvarez and five young pitchers - Framber Valdez, Christian Javier, Bryan Abreu, Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia. Only one had appeared in the major leagues - Tucker who had an OPS+ of 23 in 64 plate appearances. In a brilliant stretch in the spring of 2015 the Astros drafted Tucker and Pena and signed IFA's Valdez, Javier and Urquidy. In contrast the Sox farm system four years ago had Houck, Casas, Duran, Bello and Mata - not nothing, to be sure, but so far well short of Houston's haul.

As for Bloom, we can conclude that he inherited far less from the farm system in 2019 than did James Click when he became the Houston GM at the same time.

And looking forward, what can Bloom learn from Houston's experience in building a "player development machine?" How did they do it? How much was dumb luck? For all that has been written about the sport in the SABR era, how much do we actually know about how an optimum organization actually functions at the amateur scouting and player development level?

 

[ponch73]

I think this is right. I'm skeptical but trying to remain open about Chaim. I understand the need to retrench the the farm, but I worry about his tendency to hedge everything, it seems. BUT - we are definitely looking at a two-year plan here: all the team's holes will not be solved this off season. But there does need to be clear progress this season, from Chaim's job to remain secure, eh?

Interesting numbers, thank you for putting that together, and trying to take an objective look at Bloom's yield. One caveat to part of the premise: if you are winning the $/WAR game, but your teams have a losing record, then that's a Pyrrhic victory. Of course resources have to be smartly distributed. But the competition is not who can pay less per WAR but whose team wins the most games. A team like the Red Sox have the flexibility to have some slack in what they pay per WAR, able to take on a bit of inefficiency. The team needs more top line talent, not any further clever routes to small savings.

Agreed. Winning the $/WAR game is entirely in service of winning as many games as possible by allocating scarce marginal resources most efficiently. For example, if you assume that every team has the ability to win 60 games in a season with a $80 million base payroll, then you want to grab as much WAR as possible with the remaining $153 million payroll up to the 2023 luxury tax threshold. Ideally, you're trying to do $5 million/WAR or better to get you to at least 90 wins. And if you can find value off waivers and Rule 5 Drafts like Bloom has at $1 million/WAR, then you free up scarce resources to try to accumulate even more wins.

Where Chaim has significant room for improvement is managing possible overconfidence in trading with other front offices (Benintendi, Renfroe, Jeffrey Springs) and valuing and developing minor league prospects.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The big concern to me, especially when comparing the Astros to the Sox is…where’s the pitching coming from? The Astros success has largely come from the defensive side of the ball- even this year, their offense was only a few runs better than the Sox. Verlander has been the constant, but pretty much everyone they’ve had over the past 4-5 years has been good and they don’t give many starts to guys who haven’t.

The Sox don’t seem to be investing pretty heavily in pitching in recent years (via the draft, int’l, free agency, trades, etc).

 

[kazuneko]

The poll question (“Do you trust Chaim Bloom to help bring the Sox back to contention?”) is a bit tough to answer without a time frame or a clearer goal. After all, a team with the Red Sox payroll is likely to be in contention fairly regularly (if we define "contention" as a returning to the playoffs) regardless of who the GM is. Even if the question is just “do you trust Bloom to bring the Sox back into contention next year” that answer could be “yes” without even having much faith in Bloom. After all, with the new playoff system it doesn’t take much to make it to the postseason. So what are we really asking? Is it whether or not people see Bloom as capable of turning the Sox into a perennially contending powerhouse like Houston, or is it something more general like whether we prefer Bloom to other options going forward?
I will say, that in the short-term I don't think Bloom is the best choice to be the primary decision maker for this coming offseason (though I don't mean to suggest he should be fired for this).His time at Tampa Bay showed that he can build a good farm system and find undervalued players through trades and on the waiver wire, but it left him with no experience signing big name free agents or living up to the expectations of a fan base that expects a plausible plan for contention every single year.
Boston is not Tampa Bay, and Bloom has not yet proven that he is capable of adjusting to the difference. While I agree that the Renfroe trade has been over-litigated in this thread, it’s emblematic of the type of issues that Bloom has had adjusting to Boston. It was a risky trade for a Boston GM; in Tampa Bay it would have barely been noticed. A lost season doesn’t mean much in the Tampa Bay market, and the fact that in retrospect the GM made some questionable moves would have barely been questioned. In Tampa Bay a down season is nothing more than an opportunity to inject more talent into the minors through better draft picks - which eventually builds future contenders. But that’s not how it works in the Boston market, and fair or not, if Bloom doesn’t adjust, his tenure in Boston will not be a long one.
I also have no idea how to tell if Bloom’s primary strength (building a strong minor league system) has been realized in Boston, and I’m not sure we’ll know that anytime soon. Sure our farm system is increasingly better rated, but most of our top prospects (Casas, Bella even Rafaela) were acquired before Bloom came to Boston, and the best of his draft picks was a no-brainer (Mayer)when he was selected. Bloom has also acquired 21 prospects by trade in his 3 years on the job, but as far as I can tell the best of those (based on current MLB rankings) is Enmanuel Hernandez (acquired in the Vazquez trade), and he is only ranked 19th in the system. I suppose that doesn't include players that are already on the major league roster (like Connor Wong) but I'm not sure he is looking like anything other than a back-up catcher at best. Is that a good return for three years worth of trades for prospects?
Considering his success in Tampa Bay and how long it takes to build an elite minor league system, I think it's reasonable to give Bloom more time with the Sox, but the reality is that he will need to be better -and smarter- about the risks he takes in Boston, and at some point one of his trades for a prospect or one of his draft picks is going to need to make an impact, or the boy wonder rep that he brought with him from Tampa is going to lose it's shine.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I’m in the group of undecideds. That may change as this off-season unfolds.

 

[Ganthem]

The poll question (“Do you trust Chaim Bloom to help bring the Sox back to contention?”) is a bit tough to answer without a time frame or a clearer goal. After all, a team with the Red Sox payroll is likely to be in contention fairly regularly (if we define "contention" as a returning to the playoffs) regardless of who the GM is. Even if the question is just “do you trust Bloom to bring the Sox back into contention next year” that answer could be “yes” without even having much faith in Bloom. After all, with the new playoff system it doesn’t take much to make it to the postseason. So what are we really asking? Is it whether or not people see Bloom as capable of turning the Sox into a perennially contending powerhouse like Houston, or is it something more general like whether we prefer Bloom to other options going forward?
I will say, that in the short-term I don't think Bloom is the best choice to be the primary decision maker for this coming offseason (though I don't mean to suggest he should be fired for this).His time at Tampa Bay showed that he can build a good farm system and find undervalued players through trades and on the waiver wire, but it left him with no experience signing big name free agents or living up to the expectations of a fan base that expects a plausible plan for contention every single year.
Boston is not Tampa Bay, and Bloom has not yet proven that he is capable of adjusting to the difference. While I agree that the Renfroe trade has been over-litigated in this thread, it’s emblematic of the type of issues that Bloom has had adjusting to Boston. It was a risky trade for a Boston GM; in Tampa Bay it would have barely been noticed. A lost season doesn’t mean much in the Tampa Bay market, and the fact that in retrospect the GM made some questionable moves would have barely been questioned. In Tampa Bay a down season is nothing more than an opportunity to inject more talent into the minors through better draft picks - which eventually builds future contenders. But that’s not how it works in the Boston market, and fair or not, if Bloom doesn’t adjust, his tenure in Boston will not be a long one.
I also have no idea how to tell if Bloom’s primary strength (building a strong minor league system) has been realized in Boston, and I’m not sure we’ll know that anytime soon. Sure our farm system is increasingly better rated, but most of our top prospects (Casas, Bella even Rafaela) were acquired before Bloom came to Boston, and the best of his draft picks was a no-brainer (Mayer)when he was selected. Bloom has also acquired 21 prospects by trade in his 3 years on the job, but as far as I can tell the best of those (based on current MLB rankings) is Enmanuel Hernandez (acquired in the Vazquez trade), and he is only ranked 19th in the system. I suppose that doesn't include players that are already on the major league roster (like Connor Wong) but I'm not sure he is looking like anything other than a back-up catcher at best. Is that a good return for three years worth of trades for prospects?
Considering his success in Tampa Bay and how long it takes to build an elite minor league system, I think it's reasonable to give Bloom more time with the Sox, but the reality is that he will need to be better -and smarter- about the risks he takes in Boston, and at some point one of his trades for a prospect or one of his draft picks is going to need to make an impact, or the boy wonder rep that he brought with him from Tampa is going to lose it's shine.

Andrew Friedman says hi. Also Tampa doesn't have the whiney, impatient, entitled fans Boston has. Making moves to appease those fans is something Bloom should steer clear of.

 

[8slim]

Andrew Friedman says hi. Also Tampa doesn't have the whiney, impatient, entitled fans Boston has. Making moves to appease those fans is something Bloom should steer clear of.

The Red Sox are nothing more than entertainment. Life is short and Red Sox fans would like to see the team win. There’s also no need for this franchise to undergo a multi year rebuild before they are legit contenders. So yeah, the impatient and entitled stuff is ridiculous. It’s a sports franchise, if the team stinks people have the right to complain. Just like of a movie stinks or an album stinks.

 

[Seels]

This is kind of a stilted view of multi-year contracts and does not strike me as a problem in and of itself. The Sox are already essentially committed to spending more than $900m by 2026 simply by having a baseball team.

For perspective, the Braves reported that they made about $500m in revenue this year alone.

View: https://twitter.com/aarongleeman/status/1588602172455153664?s=46&t=c6T3kKXX-ErKIM-frs-eIQ


This is not to advocate for signing all three or offering Judge a 6/$300m deal, but it’s an interesting chess move. It’s not likely to happen, but this FO seems to have recognized that it’s a lot safer to pay for hitting and develop/revamp pitching.

Adding Judge is the equivalent of a roughly 15-win(!) swing between the Sox and Yanks before factoring other moves. Hard to imagine that doesn’t secure us a playoff seat, which is the best you could hope for.

All the more reason it pisses me off when I hear people take ownership's side with pinching pennies over . I'd guess the Sox make around twice that in revenue. Bigger market, NESN, and the last two years are the only two I can find where the Sox didn't sell more tickets, all for a considerably higher average ticket price.