I just had a test of the Emergency Broadcast Network interrupt a Dave’s Killer Bread commercial, so I and @Rick Burlesons Yam Bag are both happy
It's the halfway mark. Where we at?
- Thread starter AB in DC
- Start date
There’s no possible way I’d be happy THE DAY AFTER drinking bourbon. I can’t moderate so there’s that
With Oakland coming to town, I just looked at the Sox record against teams under .500 just because Oakland is the worst of the worst this year.
There is a real anomaly as Oakland is the only sub-.500 team in the AL not in the AL Central. With that, the Sox have only played against, Guardians (3-3), Tigers (3-0), and White Sox (1-2). So... 7 -5 . About what you would expect from a .500 team. And they haven't played the A's or Royals yet.
National League... ugh. 3 - 9 .
Pirates: 0 -3
Cardinals: 0 -3
Rockies: 1 -2
Padres: 2- 1
Haven't played any of the others under .500 yet (Mets, Nats).
Overall record against teams under .500: 10 - 14. If you add the .500 Mariners, it improves slightly to 12 - 15.
So while the Sox have had one of the toughest schedules, they haven't really capitalized on the weaker teams like a good team should.
If they can sweep Oakland going into the All-Star Break, especially after taking two out of three from first place Texas, it would be like going into halftime on a positive note.
Then you get the Cubs, A's again, and the Mets for the first nine games. Maybe they can summon the spirit of Walpole Joe and turn @Smiling Joe Hesketh 's post-Steve Renko era vibe to 1988.
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There is a real anomaly as Oakland is the only sub-.500 team in the AL not in the AL Central. With that, the Sox have only played against, Guardians (3-3), Tigers (3-0), and White Sox (1-2). So... 7 -5 . About what you would expect from a .500 team. And they haven't played the A's or Royals yet.
National League... ugh. 3 - 9 .
Pirates: 0 -3
Cardinals: 0 -3
Rockies: 1 -2
Padres: 2- 1
Haven't played any of the others under .500 yet (Mets, Nats).
Overall record against teams under .500: 10 - 14. If you add the .500 Mariners, it improves slightly to 12 - 15.
So while the Sox have had one of the toughest schedules, they haven't really capitalized on the weaker teams like a good team should.
If they can sweep Oakland going into the All-Star Break, especially after taking two out of three from first place Texas, it would be like going into halftime on a positive note.
Then you get the Cubs, A's again, and the Mets for the first nine games. Maybe they can summon the spirit of Walpole Joe and turn @Smiling Joe Hesketh 's post-Steve Renko era vibe to 1988.
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Damn. I was surprised that they hadn't when I didn't see them on the list. Updated. Still only 12 -15 against teams .500 and under.
It's weird that people are complaining about the Red Sox relative record against teams below .500 when the obvious converse is that the team is 35-29 against teams at .500 or above, which is the second best record in the American League in that category and third in MLB. That is more relevant to their potential in the playoffs.
I don't know how much to read into that number but it certainly suggests that the Red Sox could win a playoff series against anybody. Honestly the idea that any team that is good enough to make the playoffs can't possibly win the World Series requires a lot of post hoc rationalizations about teams like the 2007 or 2013 Red Sox (or 2015 Royals or 2014 Giants or 2019 Nationals etc etc etc).
That's particularly true of this team, since the pathway to this team being much better is pretty obvious: Sale comes back healthy, Bello-Paxton-Sale becomes a dominant top 3, with Whitlock and Houck solid contributors behind them either in the rotation or the bullpen, and Story fills the glaring hole in the lineup at shortstop. If those two things happen and nothing else bad happens I don't see any team in the American League that we can't beat in a 5 or 7 game series.
In some ways the first half reminds me of the 2021-2022 Celtics, it feels like there's a good team here that keeps getting stymied by injuries or inconsistency but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them turn things around in the second half.
I don't know how much to read into that number but it certainly suggests that the Red Sox could win a playoff series against anybody. Honestly the idea that any team that is good enough to make the playoffs can't possibly win the World Series requires a lot of post hoc rationalizations about teams like the 2007 or 2013 Red Sox (or 2015 Royals or 2014 Giants or 2019 Nationals etc etc etc).
That's particularly true of this team, since the pathway to this team being much better is pretty obvious: Sale comes back healthy, Bello-Paxton-Sale becomes a dominant top 3, with Whitlock and Houck solid contributors behind them either in the rotation or the bullpen, and Story fills the glaring hole in the lineup at shortstop. If those two things happen and nothing else bad happens I don't see any team in the American League that we can't beat in a 5 or 7 game series.
In some ways the first half reminds me of the 2021-2022 Celtics, it feels like there's a good team here that keeps getting stymied by injuries or inconsistency but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them turn things around in the second half.
-- Sale comes back healthy
-- Bello-Paxton-Sale become a dominant top 3
-- Whitlock and Houck, both now injured, become solid contributors
-- Story fills the glaring shortstop hole
Math
Of course the obvious rejoinder is what are the chances of any or all of these things happening?
Not really a complaint but more of an interesting note considering that the A's are coming to town. It's just odd that these guys have a much better record against the Yankees, the Blue Jays, and the Rangers than they do against the Pirates, Cardinals, and Rockies
It's a good counterpoint to note that for all the arguments that they are a quality team for beating a few good teams, there are an equal number of arguments noting that they have played poorly against bad teams.
They are in essence the perfect archetype of a mediocre team.
15-13 in April
13-13 in May
13-15 in June
23-22 at home
22-21 on the road
3-3 in extras
12-14 in one run games
15-11 in blowouts
There's simply nothing extraordinary about this team at all. They are MEH at everything. They are even meh in the division, because while they're finally beating TOR (7-0), they are getting killed by TBR (1-7).
A month ago (in the Decision Time? thread, one game into the Cleveland series), I laid out a reasonable path for the Sox to be 57-49 at the trade deadline.
That path is on the left, the actual results (in bold and red) to the right.
We've gone 14-13 since, which is two games behind the rosy pace I'd set. (Side note: I now believe that the Marlins are indeed pretty good this year.)
Here's how the 18 remaining games look:
3 vs. OAK (Projected opposing starters: Medina, Blackburn, Sears)
ASB
3 @ CHC (Hendricks, Smyly, Stroman)
3 @ OAK (Waldichuk, Medina, Blackburn)
3 vs. NYM (subject to change but currently lined up as Verlander, Senga, Carrasco)
2 vs. ATL
3 @ SFG
1 @ SEA
First thing I'd note here is the travel. That's that's a lot of cross-country flights! Second is that we probably miss All-Star Justin Steele in the Cubs series, which is fortunate.
But it seems totally possible we take 7 of 9 of that stretch. I'm really eager to see what the schedule is like on July 18th. While we play the A's, Cubs, and A's again, here are our WC competitors' schedules:
Astros: SEA, LAA, COL
Blue Jays: DET, ARI, SDP
Orioles: MIN, MIA, LAD
Yankees: CHC, COL, LAA
That path is on the left, the actual results (in bold and red) to the right.
Instead of going 7-4 against the "bad teams," we've gone 2-9. Instead of going 8-8 against the "good teams," we've gone 12-4.
We've gone 14-13 since, which is two games behind the rosy pace I'd set. (Side note: I now believe that the Marlins are indeed pretty good this year.)
Here's how the 18 remaining games look:
3 vs. OAK (Projected opposing starters: Medina, Blackburn, Sears)
ASB
3 @ CHC (Hendricks, Smyly, Stroman)
3 @ OAK (Waldichuk, Medina, Blackburn)
3 vs. NYM (subject to change but currently lined up as Verlander, Senga, Carrasco)
2 vs. ATL
3 @ SFG
1 @ SEA
First thing I'd note here is the travel. That's that's a lot of cross-country flights! Second is that we probably miss All-Star Justin Steele in the Cubs series, which is fortunate.
But it seems totally possible we take 7 of 9 of that stretch. I'm really eager to see what the schedule is like on July 18th. While we play the A's, Cubs, and A's again, here are our WC competitors' schedules:
Astros: SEA, LAA, COL
Blue Jays: DET, ARI, SDP
Orioles: MIN, MIA, LAD
Yankees: CHC, COL, LAA
Just wanted to note, a sweep would be them winning 8 of 9, they’ve already won 5 of 6
Fair point, thank you for the correction. IIRC it would be the first such streak for them this season.
Here's the kind of season they've been having.
It seems like one of those "two things can be true at the same time" type things: 1. They are incredibly frustrating and inconsistent 2. Because of their good record against good teams, I think it's is fair to say the ceiling of this team is higher than their record shows so far; and thus if they can sneak into a playoff spot they can do a bit of damage. Different way of saying it: if sox had the same exact 45-43 record, but it was due to beating bad teams but losing to good teams, we wouldn't have the high ceiling glimmer of hope some are discussing.
Yea it’s been a really bizarre season. They win a few games and I think it’s coming together, then lose a few in a row and I think it’s falling apart, and have just done that back and forth all season. I don’t have the stats for this atm, what’s the most games over and under .500 they’ve been at any point?
They were 7 games over .500 on May 6. (21-14). They then immediately lost 6 of 7. Then won 4 in a row. Then lost 4 in a row. And so on.
Boston Beige Sox? Could be a new revenue stream for alt-uniforms...
Wow... and that's as of a week ago which makes the illustration more complete.
Teams that are this streaky tend to be young teams that tend to get caught up more in momentum. The good news is that they're good enough to get the upper swing going and with experience, should help minimize the low points.
The reality is that for the foreseeable future, until pitchers start getting healthy, two out of every five games is going to be a bullpen game unless the Sox can promote or sign another starter or two.
Bingo. I don’t see the point of dwelling on that pessimistic side of things. If they flop we’ll certainly talk about it to death.
This team clearly has the ability to make some noise. It could also fall apart.
They have a great opportunity to take 3 from the As and go into the ASB feeling good. I really hope they take advantage of the situation.
I wonder if "beating good teams" correlates to a good season more or less than "losing to bad teams" correlates with a bad one? (Assuming the numbers aren't exactly inverse of each other).
An aside, but 2007 Sox do not belong with the teams you mention. Tied best regular season record, most WAR, top 4 RA/RS, only challenge in playoffs was in ALCS where they beat Cleveland 4-3 (who was tied with Sox for regular season record).
But I do agree with your post generally. We know if the situation were reversed (reversed records against over vs. under 500), the board would be hammering them for only beating bad teams and how this shows they can't win in the playoffs.
EDIT: not sure 2013 Sox really belong either, assuming your point is good, not great regular season teams that end up winning it all. 2013 Sox also tied for best regular season record. The entire season--regular and playoffs--they were a great team (because of career years for many guys). They didn't sneak into the playoffs and then just get hot at the right time.
Well last season when they went on a great string of wins from mid May through June... it was derided (accurately) as "against a bunch of poor teams". But... injuries caught up and they fell apart against good teams. This season they're playing bad teams poorly and good teams well despite injuries which should be a reason for optimism. The 4 World Series victories over the past 20 years I guess has really spoiled me. Prior to that I was always waiting for the team to fall apart (which they seemed to always right after the AS Break). I'm really just happy now to look at the bright side of the team. It frustrates me when they play sloppy and lose against teams they clearly should be beating. But I just can't get negative like I used to. I don't think I, as a Red Sox fan, DESERVE to have a better team than any other team out there and mostly think I'm pretty lucky to be a fan of a team that still seems like they're trying to compete (sometimes in perhaps a flawed way) but I really do have a lot of optimism for the future of this team and with a return of Sale, Houck, Schreiber, Paxton, Story and Whitlock... it's actually happening earlier than I honestly thought.
I initially said 84 wins and the last WC spot. I'm revising the wins to 89 but still the last WC spot.
They’re all uncertain but anticipated, so all of them happening probably pretty close to the Sox’ odds of making the playoffs, i.e. ~20 percent.
The odds that four events that are expected to happen 2/3 of the time *all* happening is pretty close to that number.
FWIW when I said two I really meant Story and Sale. The Bello-Paxton-Sale rotation being a monster is derivative of Sale coming back healthy and effective and the Whitlock/Houck thing would be nice but I don't think it's critical. Although of course "nothing else bad happening" is really a third thing.
They are mediocre overall, but they are very good in their division (without having to play against themselves no less).
Vs. the East
Rays 17-10
Sox 16-11
O's 16-11
Two teams are .500
Everyone else in the AL combined is 63 games under.
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Possibly, but I'm struggling to think of anyone in the post-steroid(*) era who's been around for a few seasons and completely avoided significant injury. (EDIT: "major" is maybe too strong of a word)
(* - Yes, it's quite likely that a lot of players still take PEDs and get away with it, but you know what I mean.)
Durability is a sliding scale, of course, and save Cal Ripken being reincarnated and coming back to the majors, nearly every player will miss time over the course of their career. So your point is correct, no one avoids injury completely.
A guy like Mookie (average of 143 GP in his full seasons in the majors) are a good example of a player who is NOT injury prone, his GP low is 122. Freddie Freeman has been extremely durable over the course of his career. Bryce Harper, as an example, has not been nearly at that level of injury avoidance.
Story, of course, played in 94 last year and this year will miss most of the season, so he's now on the other end of the spectrum.
Marcus Semien, Vlad Jr, Bo Bichette, Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman, and Lindor are probably the most durable players of recent memory. Joey Votto is another one who was…until he wasn’t.
Bobby Abreu's durability was impressive. Thirteen consecutive seasons with 150+ games played and fourteen with 140+.
Jon Lester had a good run. Made 31+ starts from 2008-19, made his 12 starts in 2020, had an IL stint in 2021 but still made 28 starts. Eleven consecutive seasons with 180+ innings.
Jon Lester had a good run. Made 31+ starts from 2008-19, made his 12 starts in 2020, had an IL stint in 2021 but still made 28 starts. Eleven consecutive seasons with 180+ innings.
Vlad Jr. is a good one. Freddie Freeman missed time in 2015 and 2017 with wrist injuries, if we were having this conversation in 2018, some of you would be skeptical of his future prospects.
I don't think its fair to label him injury prone, you can't just look at last year (getting hit with a pitch in the wrist is the definition of a fluke injury) and this year. Prior to that, he'd played over 140 games in four straight seasons, ignoring the 2020 season for which he was also healthy. The current injury is easily the most serious he's dealt with, and there is no guarantee he comes back at 100% - but there is nothing in his history that would suggests its less likely than for any other player. Basically five straight healthy seasons, a fluke HBP and then the current injury.
Record wise the team is right about where I expected so far as are their playoff chances. I pretty much expected a playoff run would mean fighting for the last WC spot. FWIW, with the Sox now 3 games out of the last slot they find themselves 1 game behind the MFY (6 left to play), 3 behind Toronto (6 left to play) 3 behind Houston (7 left to play) and one ahead of Seattle (3 left to play). The Angels have been struck a huge blow with Trout going to the IL so that's likely to be one less team to worry about.
I think this rundown tracks with Bloom's likely "if it all breaks right" plan. (understanding that many think that's a stupid plan, but that's a different debate; but I think its pretty hard to reasonably dispute that that was his plan for this year).
It's now pretty easy to see what he was aiming at. If only one of Sale, Whitlock, and Houck isn't out for two months, the rotation looks better; and maybe if one of Schreiber or Rodriguez had been able to be one more reliable bullpen arm, and maybe if SS hadn't turned into Spinal Tap Drummer School leaving them defenseless there, they are within sight of the 1 or 2 WC, rather than only 3. And at the same time, in the unlikely event it *all* went right (none of the player losses above happened), they'd be closer to TB, and if it *all* went wrong (all of those above, and arguable question marks like Yoshida and Verdugo and Bello and Casas and Duran and Winckowski and Crawford all being terrible), they'd be 15 games under 500.
We are the greatest team in the American League (barely, over a smallish sample).
View: https://twitter.com/SoxNotes/status/1677515277448224768
View: https://twitter.com/SoxNotes/status/1677515277448224768
I think that clearly was the plan for this year. There was no need to spend big going into this season. The health of Sale, Paxton and Story was questionable, Bello was not yet a sure thing, Casas was still a bit of an unknown and wanting to further develop the farm there wasn't going to be any block buster trades coming our way. While the team has been painful to watch at times the record is about where I expected them to be. I love what we've seen out of Bello, Paxton, bullpen Pivetta, Yoshida, Verdugo, and Duran (surprise, surprise). The fan in all of us wants to see the team functioning on a highly competitive level every year, but I think the realist in many of us saw this season for what it was going to be at the end of last season.
I agree (it's kind of what I have been saying since, like December), but the WC2 currently has the exact same record as the WC3. In what world are they currently competing only for WC3 and not WC2?
I would also argue that at 7 games behind, with a young (but thrilling) Baltimore team in it, WC1 isn't completely out of reach for any of the currently contending teams, either.
The Oakland A’s have split a four game series with Tampa and won 2 out of 3 from Atlanta this season. So by the standard you’ve laid out here, the two teams with the best records in MLB are not “quality”.
SJH and are often of different minds, but he's correct in his analysis and you know that your just playing word games here. Atlanta and Tampa are vastly different teams than Boston. Right now the Sox are inferior to both and I doubt anyone here could argue differently.
He literally said if the Sox don’t sweep Oakland then they are not a quality team. I’m not arguing they are a ‘quality’ team or not; strikes me as an arbitrary, subjective term. And I’m certainly not arguing they are anywhere near as good as Tampa or Atlanta. Just pointing out the absurdity of his litmus test. The ‘62 Mets beat the Dodgers and Giants a few times that season.
Being swept by the A's would have left TB 20-21 games over .500 and Atlanta roughly 30 games over. If Boston gets swept they drop back below .500 and likely drop a few more games out from the final WC spot.
A quick look shows that you're 100% correct. The '62 Mets went a combined 6-30 vs the Dodgers and Giants. The '23 Red Sox get just six cracks against the worst team in baseball. IMO the weight of these games/sense of urgency is far greater here.