Jaylen Brown - underrated?

[HomeRunBaker]

Isn't it a stretch to call Harrison Barnes Mavs max contract an asset? I thought Bob Myers/GSW not matching turned out to be the right move for them. Barnes underperformed during the deal, the Mavs were bad throughout and he finally got dealt in the last year of it for an expiring Zach Randolph/end of the bench fodder.
Otto Porter was OK for the few years on his deal but got dealt for Portis/Parker, both bench players.

I consider Barnes a good signing by the Kings for what he brings to his team as a versatile wing scoring and ballhandling wing which was previously lacking on their roster.

Porter was a good signing by the Wizards for pretty much the same reason in that they were capped out and had no depth behind him. Then Wall went down and they looked to retool......and were able to easily move his contract for expirings.

Hopefully, Jaylen improves, has a big year and he gets a max. BUT, if he doesn't improve from last season, he isn't NOR his contract's asset value worth max money IMO.

Of course we hope he improves but I don’t see any reason why Jaylen won’t continue to take leaps as he has since he left Cal. I felt him improvement last year was greatly disguised by the ball being in Kyrie and Rozier’s hands. It could still be hidden some with Kemba dominating the ball but that is just noise when talking about individual improvement which Jaylen continues to display.

 

[benhogan]

I consider a guy in asset if you don’t have to give up stuff to unload him. In that case, you’re getting the crack at his upside with the ability to move on if he doesn’t improve. For every couple Harrison Barnes, there’s a Gordon Hayward who improves a ton on his second contract, and that optionality is worth it. Andrew Wiggins is of course the exception, but Brown was better than him even by his 2nd year.

that's a very fair point

Say in the small chance the salary cap declines next season or starts to flatline for a few seasons.
What's the best strategy then?
We'd have a lot of teams capped out and others will be paying huge taxes for numerous seasons. We could see a Marcus Smart situation (maybe worse) where good payers have nowhere to go with limited bidders, right?

Over the years a lot of bad contracts have been covered by the ever-increasing salary cap, we'll see how many GM's are naked when the tide goes out.

 

[lovegtm]

that's a very fair point

Say in the small chance the salary cap declines next season or starts to flatline for a few seasons.
What's the best strategy then?
We'd have a lot of teams capped out and others will be paying huge taxes for numerous seasons. We could see a Marcus Smart situation (maybe worse) where good payers have nowhere to go with limited bidders, right?

Over the years a lot of bad contracts have been covered by the ever-increasing salary cap, we'll see how many GM's are naked when the tide goes out.

I think this all makes it a good idea to wait for the summer on Jaylen. If he breaks out, you give him the 5-year max. If he flatlines or is good but not great and the cap goes up, you match a big deal to keep the optionality. If there is a cap squeeze, you Marcus Smart him.

 

[lovegtm]

Jaylen showing some nice handles and finishing with the left:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vOjr6VH1t0

Also making more plays and passes when he drives into traffic.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think it is pretty obvious that "max deal or no deal" is the right play for Jaylen. I think even when he negotiated for himself, he had people advising him, so it seems likely that he could have done so here.

I'd attribute his hiring of an agent to one of two things:

1. He wants there to be extension talks, but he doesn't want to be personally involved at this time.
2. He'd be willing to sign a below max extension. That would mean that there is a real negotiation to be done, which would make it a good idea to hand the matter over to a professional.

I'd bet on #1, because I do think "max deal or no deal" is the obvious play.

 

[Big John]

Well, Buddy Hield appears to playing the same "max deal or no deal" game. It's a tough game to win as an RFA however, unless you are willing to play a year for the QO.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Well, Buddy Hield appears to playing the same "max deal or no deal" game. It's a tough game to win as an RFA however, unless you are willing to play a year for the QO.

Hield has publicly said that he wants to remain in Sacramento and would take less than the max to do so. It's incredible to me how young players who have multiple advisers would still make statements that make their agents job more difficult to get the best deal for their client. Just stfu guys.

 

[Montana Fan]

What’s the function of an agent for a guy who’s going to get a Mac deal, though?

Serious question.

I think it's to converse with other teams. Right now Jaylen can only talk with the Celts while a good agent has plenty of reasons to speak with the other teams and can gauge their interest in Jaylen. I'm thinking that after a strong 4th year, he gets a max offer from another team and Danny matches.

 

[lexrageorge]

Another service an agent can provide in Jaylen's case is to advise him what he should receive if the Celtics were to offer an extension, as well as the chances of his getting the "rookie max" next offseason. The agent could also show Jaylen various scenarios, such as there are this many teams with cap space next year if the cap goes up 5%, compared to this many if the cap were to actually go down 10%. As noted, a good client will say nothing to the press and let the agent do the work to maximize Brown's leverage.

Brown is absolutely doing this correctly.

 

[lovegtm]

I think it's to converse with other teams. Right now Jaylen can only talk with the Celts while a good agent has plenty of reasons to speak with the other teams and can gauge their interest in Jaylen. I'm thinking that after a strong 4th year, he gets a max offer from another team and Danny matches.

If he has a strong year and makes a leap, Danny likely offers him the 5 year max in order to get an extra year of control and also avoid having to match a 3+1.

 

[chilidawg]

Hield has publicly said that he wants to remain in Sacramento and would take less than the max to do so. It's incredible to me how young players who have multiple advisers would still make statements that make their agents job more difficult to get the best deal for their client. Just stfu guys.

As a fan I love hearing this. These guys are all getting paid well, I'm glad to see a guy put his team above maximizing his wealth. He's going to be fine either way.

 

[bakahump]

As an Agent I would say to the Kings mgmt "Of Course Buddy is going to say that he wants to Stay in Sac town, Would you prefer he say that he wants the most money and will go wherever is best for him? Those lockerrooms would be fun. So he said what he said to avoid pressure and questions to all of us including his teammates and coaches. Now lets get into numbers."

Not saying anything is the "Kyrie method" and we see how that worked out. Hield can now point back to what he said and say " Hey I said how much I love playing for the Kings. I mean look HOW GREAT MY TEAMMATES ARE AND THE GREAT a RELATIONSHIP I have WITH THE COACHES and what a BEAUTIFUL CITY Sactown is....." over the next 9 months.

In 12 months will anyone really point back to this quote and think Buddy is a bad guy if he ends up in Atlanta on a max contract?

 

[sezwho]

As an Agent I would say to the Kings mgmt "Of Course Buddy is going to say that he wants to Stay in Sac town, Would you prefer he say that he wants the most money and will go wherever is best for him? Those lockerrooms would be fun. So he said what he said to avoid pressure and questions to all of us including his teammates and coaches. Now lets get into numbers."

Not saying anything is the "Kyrie method" and we see how that worked out. Hield can now point back to what he said and say " Hey I said how much I love playing for the Kings. I mean look HOW GREAT MY TEAMMATES ARE AND THE GREAT a RELATIONSHIP I have WITH THE COACHES and what a BEAUTIFUL CITY Sactown is....." over the next 9 months.

In 12 months will anyone really point back to this quote and think Buddy is a bad guy if he ends up in Atlanta on a max contract?

...and that’s also why you get an agent. That and getting you a shoe deal the size of your NBA contract.

 

[fairlee76]

As a fan I love hearing this. These guys are all getting paid well, I'm glad to see a guy put his team above maximizing his wealth. He's going to be fine either way.

Same. The important thing for these guys is working with a reputable/honest financial manager to ensure they make the most of the money they make. Making a few million dollars a year more means nothing if you blow it or it gets swindled away from you.

 

[nighthob]

...and that’s also why you get an agent. That and getting you a shoe deal the size of your NBA contract.

Honestly the latter is a far more important job for an agent. The whole salary cap/max contract system takes most of the work out of the former. Brown's getting maxed one way or the other, what his agent's really there for is to start getting Jaylen endorsement money.

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

Apparently Danny’s current offer is $80 million/4, which Jaylen is (understandably) not exactly rushing to accept:

But even with history not on Brown’s side, the Celtics have extended the 6-foot-7 swingman an offer of four years and $80 million, league sources told Yahoo Sports.

But Brown believes in his ability to one day be a star and is pursuing a bigger offer, sources said. Next season the Celtics will have another major decision: figuring out if Jayson Tatum is worth the rookie-scale max.

Should the 22-year-old Brown go the restricted free-agency route, he could end up being one of the top players on the market in July. Whatever he decides to do, he seems content and at peace.

“It’s really not overwhelming me or ruling my thoughts,” he told the New York Times. “I know what type of talent I have. I’m confident in myself. I’m confident in my ability. It’s not something that’s keeping me up at night.”

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-raptors-pascal-siakam-seeking-rookiescale-max-but-picture-not-so-clear-for-others-in-draft-class-180147606.html

 

[lovegtm]

Apparently Danny’s current offer is $80 million/4, which Jaylen is (understandably) not exactly rushing to accept:

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-raptors-pascal-siakam-seeking-rookiescale-max-but-picture-not-so-clear-for-others-in-draft-class-180147606.html

With the caveat that we don’t know the reliability of the reporting, that’s not a serious offer.

 

[Jimbodandy]

With the caveat that we don’t know the reliability of the reporting, that’s not a serious offer.

It's an interesting coincidence to read this piece not long after hearing that JB has a new agent.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

The interesting question is whether the Celtics would come in much higher (but below max) and whether Brown would take it if they did. My guess would be no (Celtics won't offer and Brown wouldn't accept if they did).

 

[the moops]

It is a decent starting point. Myles Turner signed a 4/72. Gary Harris 4/74. Gobert 4/94. Oladipo 4/84.

I think any team that signs Jaylen to a max deal will regret it. Not Wiggins type regret, but regret nonetheless.

 

[Big John]

The Celtics could offer a fifth year, yes?

 

[Lazy vs Crazy]

The Celtics could offer a fifth year, yes?

You can only offer 5 years on a max for rookie extensions.

 

[RetractableRoof]

It is a decent starting point. Myles Turner signed a 4/72. Gary Harris 4/74. Gobert 4/94. Oladipo 4/84.

I think any team that signs Jaylen to a max deal will regret it. Not Wiggins type regret, but regret nonetheless.

I'm less in tune about NBA salaries than other sports. But just basic apples and apples comparison... if Oladipo got 4/84 why is 4/80 Brown such a non-starter? Or did Oladipo have to sign a discounted deal because of his recent injury history? I don't see Brown currently making the impact on the Cs that Oladipo has for his team. Am I off base with that thought?

 

[the moops]

Oladipo signed his extension when he was with OKC, so his injury had nothing to do with it. He actually seems like a decent comp as you said. He was good, not great, and had loads of unfulfilled potential

 

[Big John]

Both sides are probably doing the right thing by tabling an extension. Le the year play out.

 

[lexrageorge]

Brown is difficult to value right now. So 4/80 seems about in the ballpark of a fair offer from the Celtics viewpoint. Brown wants to wait a year and potentially get more, which is his right. Or, what @Big John said above.

 

[benhogan]

nm

With Danny's offer, there is no need to discuss JB's contract until next Summer

 

[lovegtm]

Oladipo signed his extension when he was with OKC, so his injury had nothing to do with it. He actually seems like a decent comp as you said. He was good, not great, and had loads of unfulfilled potential

I can revisit the thread about the PG to OKC trade, but Oladipo’s stock at that time was much lower around the league than Brown’s is. Victor’s star turn in Indy shocked basically everyone.

 

[lovegtm]

Also worth noting that the China situation is adding a ton of uncertainty here. If you knew the cap was going up for the next couple years 4/100 or whatever is totally fine, given positional scarcity and tradeability. However, if the cap goes down, and Brown doesn't make a leap, it sucks. In a lowered cap situation, that Jamal Murray contract could really, really hurt Denver (as an example).

 

[lovegtm]

View: https://twitter.com/BrianTRobb/status/1184824183538229249?s=20

 

[the moops]

I can revisit the thread about the PG to OKC trade, but Oladipo’s stock at that time was much lower around the league than Brown’s is. Victor’s star turn in Indy shocked basically everyone.

Which seems pretty odd in retrospect. Oladipo had better numbers pretty much across the board.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Victor+Oladipo&player_id1_select=Victor+Oladipo&y1=2016&player_id1=oladivi01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Jaylen+Brown&player_id2_select=Jaylen+Brown&y2=2019&player_id2=brownja02&idx=players

 

[benhogan]

Which seems pretty odd in retrospect. Oladipo had better numbers pretty much across the board.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Victor+Oladipo&player_id1_select=Victor+Oladipo&y1=2016&player_id1=oladivi01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Jaylen+Brown&player_id2_select=Jaylen+Brown&y2=2019&player_id2=brownja02&idx=players

one small tear trickles down lovegtm's face...just joking

I'll let others make JB's defense. I'd just add the Celtics were a mess last season and Brown seemed to the target of the "young guys want everything" campaign Kyrie ran. He recovered after the first 2 months (hand injury?) to play better but it seemed he still could not get Brad's full buy-in. Brown has shown he can be the main player on the biggest stage in the playoffs, Oladipo had yet to make the playoffs.

Jaylen also showed something at USA basketball, has been getting bigger/stronger every year, would be 18mths younger then VO when he signed and team salary caps are quite a bit higher now than when VO signed in 2016.

I still would let this go to next Summer to see if Jaylen's handle, FT shooting and ball movement improve. AND let the China revenue situation resolve itself.

 

[lovegtm]

one small tear trickles down lovegtm's face...just joking

I mean, my real estate holdings on Jaylen island are looking a lot better after Team USA and the preseason. You can't really fake the handle improvements, and he's finally starting to finish more creatively and make some basic passes.

Jaylen is an odd player: he's more mechanical than most highly drafted guys, but he's also shown the ability to improve more than most mechanical players (think Semi types). This is probably why he's interesting to me.

 

[benhogan]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27867216/nba-commissioner-adam-silver-says-financial-losses-china-substantial
This is worth keeping an eye on in regards to Jaylen being offered a contract now. JB's agent and Celtics brass should be going through all the potential permutations in regards to the NBA experiencing a declining revenue scenario.

We'll have more visibility after the season starts. If China bans TV games, it will get real ugly. This should also affect the trade market when it opens on Dec 15. The Celtics are positioned very well if Cap heads "substantially" lower.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I mean, my real estate holdings on Jaylen island are looking a lot better after Team USA and the preseason. You can't really fake the handle improvements, and he's finally starting to finish more creatively and make some basic passes.

Jaylen is an odd player: he's more mechanical than most highly drafted guys, but he's also shown the ability to improve more than most mechanical players (think Semi types). This is probably why he's interesting to me.

I agree with all of this, but your last paragraph is really well said.

 

[lovegtm]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27867216/nba-commissioner-adam-silver-says-financial-losses-china-substantial
This is worth keeping an eye on in regards to Jaylen being offered a contract now. JB's agent and Celtics brass should be going through all the potential permutations in regards to the NBA experiencing a declining revenue scenario.

We'll have more visibility after the season starts. If China bans TV games, it will get real ugly. This should also affect the trade market when it opens on Dec 15. The Celtics are positioned very well if Cap heads "substantially" lower.

Yeah, the China stuff appears more serious than I first thought. It adds a lot of risk for Jaylen, even if he has a big year: there won't be many teams in that scenario with space to make an offer, and the ones who can may not want to tie it up. The Celtics have also signaled hard that they like him, or at the least would be willing to re-sign him with the intention of trading him later on in the deal. As nighthob mentioned in roster thread, this will make (for example) Atlanta a lot less willing to make an offer.

I initially thought 4/80 was a slap in the face, but that was with the assumption of a rising cap. If both sides assess the China risk as high, I could see them locking in a 4/85-90 type deal with incentives on top. I don't recall Ainge being as publicly optimistic about the Rozier or Smarf negotiations.

On another note, if the China hit is real, a couple franchises are going to be royally screwed. Jamal Murray at $34M per is brutal at a $100M cap, for example.

 

[benhogan]

Yeah, the China stuff appears more serious than I first thought. It adds a lot of risk for Jaylen, even if he has a big year: there won't be many teams in that scenario with space to make an offer, and the ones who can may not want to tie it up. The Celtics have also signaled hard that they like him, or at the least would be willing to re-sign him with the intention of trading him later on in the deal. As nighthob mentioned in roster thread, this will make (for example) Atlanta a lot less willing to make an offer.

I initially thought 4/80 was a slap in the face, but that was with the assumption of a rising cap. If both sides assess the China risk as high, I could see them locking in a 4/85-90 type deal with incentives on top. I don't recall Ainge being as publicly optimistic about the Rozier or Smarf negotiations.

On another note, if the China hit is real, a couple franchises are going to be royally screwed. Jamal Murray at $34M per is brutal at a $100M cap, for example.

Ha, I just posted as much in the other thread. We are in 100% agreement.

I'll just add that all contracts look fine if you pay todays prices and the cap continuously rises in future years. The inverse happens when the cap goes lower.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Which seems pretty odd in retrospect. Oladipo had better numbers pretty much across the board.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Victor+Oladipo&player_id1_select=Victor+Oladipo&y1=2016&player_id1=oladivi01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Jaylen+Brown&player_id2_select=Jaylen+Brown&y2=2019&player_id2=brownja02&idx=players

per 36 numbers are about the same, with JB shooting better from 2P and VO shooting better from the line and having way more assists.

Also VO was getting 33 mpg on a under .500 team while JB was coming off the bench for a team that had championship aspirations.

 

[DJnVa]

Ainge said that report (4/$80M) is not accurate:

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2019/10/17/danny-ainge-jaylen-brown-extension

 

[BJBossman]

Clearly not anymore. 20m for A guy who was replacement level last year is not a good deal. It’s a heck of a gamble.

but certainly not underrated

 

[NomarsFool]

Deadline is tomorrow, right?

 

[Imbricus]

Correct. Appears to be six p.m. There's time, but it's starting to feel doubtful.

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

Correct. Appears to be six p.m. There's time, but it's starting to feel doubtful.

It just makes too much sense for each side to wait. Jaylen wants to use his RFA opportunity to go out and get a max offer for Ainge to match, and Ainge would rather watch Jaylen (and others) develop for another year before pulling the trigger and also avoid the large cap hit of an extension now vs. the smaller cap hold if they ink a deal next summer. It could happen - I’d be very happy if they lock him up for something less than a max - but it would be surprising.

 

[Big John]

It also makes sense for Ainge to wait to see what Hayward does, I believe that Hayward can opt out at the end of this year.

 

[benhogan]

It just makes too much sense for each side to wait. Jaylen wants to use his RFA opportunity to go out and get a max offer for Ainge to match, and Ainge would rather watch Jaylen (and others) develop for another year before pulling the trigger and also avoid the large cap hit of an extension now vs. the smaller cap hold if they ink a deal next summer. It could happen - I’d be very happy if they lock him up for something less than a max - but it would be surprising.

This pretty much sums it up. So many downside variables to MAX now. If $80MM for 4yrs isn't appealing, the Celtics should go to 2020 RFA w/JB. Brown seems focused on playing well and he's intelligent enough to understand the situation.

Maybe someone can explain to me why teams MAX a year early (ie Jamal Murray, Siakam, etc) what's the advantage besides absolutely hooking up a player and his agent?

 

[nighthob]

Long term goodwill is likely part of it. You only get absolute control for so many years. You (in theory) want them to re-sign when they hit UFA status. Plus the longer they’re signed the longer you have to build a team around them.

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

Maybe someone can explain to me why teams MAX a year early (ie Jamal Murray, Siakam, etc) what's the advantage besides absolutely hooking up a player and his agent?

It certainly hurts the team from a cap flexibility perspective, but I wouldn’t necessarily dismiss the intangible benefits too quickly. Just look at last year’s Celtics team with so many players in the last year of their deals and uncertainty abounding. I can absolutely see how a team like Denver, with championship ambitions, wants to keep Murray from playing for his next contract, hogging the ball and shooting every chance he gets.

 

[benhogan]

It certainly hurts the team from a cap flexibility perspective, but I wouldn’t necessarily dismiss the intangible benefits too quickly. Just look at last year’s Celtics team with so many players in the last year of their deals and uncertainty abounding. I can absolutely see how a team like Denver, with championship ambitions, wants to keep Murray from playing for his next contract, hogging the ball and shooting every chance he gets.

fair point

 

[NomarsFool]

It also makes sense for Ainge to wait to see what Hayward does, I believe that Hayward can opt out at the end of this year.

Is that at all likely, though? Assuming that he doesn't hate playing in Boston, is there a universe where someone pays him more than he would make with the Celtics? He'd have to have an MVP-like season, I'd say for that to be likely.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Is that at all likely, though? Assuming that he doesn't hate playing in Boston, is there a universe where someone pays him more than he would make with the Celtics? He'd have to have an MVP-like season, I'd say for that to be likely.

And if he had an MVP-like season, Ainge would have no qualms about matching any offer out there.