My favorite part of this is JT's reaction. It's been a joy to watch him ascend this year.
Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top
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It's funny to look back at Tatum's rookie year and remember those long graceful strides he would take to the rim for some of the most beautiful layups you'll ever see. And then everyone caught on and he was getting stuffed, stripped, etc because he telegraphed it, couldn't finish with his left, wasn't strong enough, avoided contact at all costs, etc.
A lot of the stuff that has led to this level up is somewhat subtle. Certainly the ability to finish with the left, but changing speeds and directions, knowing when to take those extra short steps, and figuring out how to draw contact for cheap fouls (he still has room for growth on this one). I've spent his whole career lamenting that he didn't have Jaylen's inherent quickness and first step but he is now unlocking all of the same stuff that a quicker first step would.
And overall there is a lot more joy in his game this year. Ime deserves a lot of credit for helping to cleanse the polluted air that hovered over this team last year. They are playing like the early Stevens teams that scratched and clawed for everything but lacked talent. Now they have the talent and are steamrolling through the last two months.
A lot of the stuff that has led to this level up is somewhat subtle. Certainly the ability to finish with the left, but changing speeds and directions, knowing when to take those extra short steps, and figuring out how to draw contact for cheap fouls (he still has room for growth on this one). I've spent his whole career lamenting that he didn't have Jaylen's inherent quickness and first step but he is now unlocking all of the same stuff that a quicker first step would.
And overall there is a lot more joy in his game this year. Ime deserves a lot of credit for helping to cleanse the polluted air that hovered over this team last year. They are playing like the early Stevens teams that scratched and clawed for everything but lacked talent. Now they have the talent and are steamrolling through the last two months.
Yeah, this 100%. Tatum came into the league with good footwork and some nice moves, but there have been some ugly stretches as he tries to incorporate new techniques and responsibilities. Now that he's making the right read and has a counter ready nearly every time it feels like his bag is bottomless. Credit goes all around here to Tatum for the hardwork, Ime for implementing a system that works, and Brad for surrounding Tatum with an improved cast.
Oh and most importantly for me, the viewer, is that somehow Ime got Tatum to stop with the whining and horrible body language every single time. Tatum still works the refs, but its night and day from where he was at the start of the season.
To be completely honest I kind of hedged in my original post. I actually just didn’t like watching Tatum at all. He’d make have stretches and games where I’d be in awe of his shot making in difficult situations and I could see that he was an incredibly gifted player.
However, I can’t stand the way he played. It’s the same reason I never liked watching Kobe as a player. Pounding the ball deliberately with no pace or decisiveness and rarely involving your teammates so you can go “in your bag” is just not something I enjoy. There would be glimpses of playmaking and great court vision but the majority of the time he lapsed into Kobe mode. In 2022, that’s completely flipped. Now the majority of the time hes playing decisively, making the right read and moving the ball while only sometimes lapsing into Kobe mode.
It’s really been a pleasure to watch a 19 year old progress like this
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So I posted these a lot early in the season, and Tatum was well below last year with long possessions that bogged down the offense. And as you could probably guess, it’s gotten even better over the last couple of months. Him and Ime deserve a ton of credit, because it’s a big change. The top picture is last year, the bottom is this.
Maybe it’s my imagination, but I feel like In the last few games he has been moving without the ball much more and in a much more effective way than I remember before. I just don’t remember seeing someone pass to a cutting Tatum for an easy layup before. It seems like the vast majority of possessions are catch and shoot or iso stuff. So, not only is he doing some playmaking for others to drive and dish, he’s working if off ball movement so that others can make plays as well.
Last year vs. this year for Tatum:
2020-21: .459 FG, .386 3ptFG, .530 eFG, .868 FT, 26.4 pts, 7.4 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.2 stl, 2.7 TO, 21.3 PER
2021-22: .435 FG, .328 3ptFG, .502 eFG, .850 FT, 26.0 pts, 8.3 reb, 4.2 ast, 1.0 stl, 2.9 TO, 20.5 PER
But Tatum, like the rest of the team, has improved in the 2022 portion of the season as compared to the 2021 portion.
2021 portion: 33 g, .417 FG, .329 3ptFG, .823 FT, 25.6 pts, 8.6 reb, 3.8 ast, 1.0 stl, 2.8 TO, 17.1 game score, 2.8 +/-
2022 portion: 25 g, .461 FG, .319 3ptFG, .869 FT, 26.8 pts, 8.2 reb, 4.8 ast, 0.8 stl, 3.2 TO, 19.6 game score, 12.8 +/-
I don't think this has been his "leap" year that we were hoping for, but lately he's been playing more like the player we expect, except for the poor three point shooting, which remains a mystery.
If he was shooting just his career average from three point range (which includes this poor shooting season currently), he'd have scored 195 more points (based on the number of threes he's taken). That would be adding 3.2 points per game more to his average, which would put him at 29.2 points a game, which would put him 3rd in the league behind Embiid and Giannis. He's currently 8th.
But basically everything else - 2 pt%, FT%, rebounds, assists - he's performing better than his career norms. Which makes sense as he improves as a player. He needs to turn it over less and shoot from distance better, two areas of obvious needed improvement.
2020-21: .459 FG, .386 3ptFG, .530 eFG, .868 FT, 26.4 pts, 7.4 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.2 stl, 2.7 TO, 21.3 PER
2021-22: .435 FG, .328 3ptFG, .502 eFG, .850 FT, 26.0 pts, 8.3 reb, 4.2 ast, 1.0 stl, 2.9 TO, 20.5 PER
But Tatum, like the rest of the team, has improved in the 2022 portion of the season as compared to the 2021 portion.
2021 portion: 33 g, .417 FG, .329 3ptFG, .823 FT, 25.6 pts, 8.6 reb, 3.8 ast, 1.0 stl, 2.8 TO, 17.1 game score, 2.8 +/-
2022 portion: 25 g, .461 FG, .319 3ptFG, .869 FT, 26.8 pts, 8.2 reb, 4.8 ast, 0.8 stl, 3.2 TO, 19.6 game score, 12.8 +/-
I don't think this has been his "leap" year that we were hoping for, but lately he's been playing more like the player we expect, except for the poor three point shooting, which remains a mystery.
If he was shooting just his career average from three point range (which includes this poor shooting season currently), he'd have scored 195 more points (based on the number of threes he's taken). That would be adding 3.2 points per game more to his average, which would put him at 29.2 points a game, which would put him 3rd in the league behind Embiid and Giannis. He's currently 8th.
But basically everything else - 2 pt%, FT%, rebounds, assists - he's performing better than his career norms. Which makes sense as he improves as a player. He needs to turn it over less and shoot from distance better, two areas of obvious needed improvement.
With raw numbers he is mostly in line with last year, just less efficient. Impact wise he’s having the best season of his career, even with the broken three ball.
But what I care most about is how he’s playing, and the last few months is clearly the best basketball he’s ever played. Him struggling from deep this year has only made him a better all around player, going forward.
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Yeah his TS and defensive metrics - which we should always be skeptical of but in this case its backed up by both visuals and data - as well as his assist rate show a leveling up. I'm buying it.
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So when players are on great streaks, I like digging into the numbers and seeing if it’s sustainable. When Tatum went off before the shutdown a few years ago, he was incredible offensively, but it was him shooting 48% or so from three on 9 attempts a game that February. As fun as it was, rationally you knew that wasn’t sustainable, same for when Jaylen was shooting like 75% from mid range for the first few weeks of last season.
What Tatum has done the last few months? There’s nothing unsustainable going on, the closest thing is probably his three ball, but the other way. He’s put up about a 59% TS since December 1st, despite only shooting 33% from three over that time period. I’ve always been bullish on Tatum, but even moreso after watching what he’s been able to do without his best weapon being reliable.
Anyone questioning whether this is a leap of sorts is welcome to make their case. The burden of proof is now on those folks
Just going to leave this one here:
View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1500568183761039362?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1500568183761039362?s=21
We just caught a glimpse of Tatum with his 3pt shooting back. I hate the subjective rankings crap, but he's clearly a TOP10 player (WING defense matters a lot).
TOP3 may happen sooner than the 2023 playoffs
TOP3 may happen sooner than the 2023 playoffs
A good reminder development isn’t always linear, especially in the middle of a pandemic.
The last couple months of DARKO datapoints (too illiterate to post from my phone) is a beautiful trajectory.
View: https://twitter.com/taylorcsnow/status/1500576920127393795?s=20&t=M2pY5NKZlJLLlFS9juYWZA
Taylor Snow: Jayson Tatum has 3X as many 50-point games as any other NBA player over the past year. 50-point games from 3/6/21 to 3/6/22: 1. Jayson Tatum – 6 2. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 2 Steph Curry – 2 Damian Lillard – 2
Taylor Snow: Jayson Tatum has 3X as many 50-point games as any other NBA player over the past year. 50-point games from 3/6/21 to 3/6/22: 1. Jayson Tatum – 6 2. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 2 Steph Curry – 2 Damian Lillard – 2
Not that 50 point games are the end-all be-all, but this is honestly a flabbergasting statistic. We're so lucky to get to watch him play, and the scary part is there are some obvious areas for even more improvement
in his whole career, Bird had 4 50-point games: 60 (March 12, 1985), 53 (March 30, 1983), 50 (March 10, 1986), and 50 (November 10, 1989). Two of the 4 games were against the Atlanta Hawks. All regular season games - Bird's playoff high was 43.
Tatum has 6 within the past year: 60 (April 30, 2021), 54 (March 6, 2022) 53 (April 9, 2021), 51 (January 23, 2022), 50 (play in game, May 18, 2021) 50 (playoffs, May 28, 2020).
For some reason, the NBA decided that the play in games count as neither a regular season game or a postseason game, so I guess Tatum's 50 in last year's do or die game against the Wizards exists in some weird limbo. Does the game count if the stats from it make no difference?
That depends, but I'm going with "not even close."
I think that if Philly had refused to deal, Ainge would have taken Tatum with the #1 pick. Ball goes to LA at 2, and then Philly picks up Fultz at 3.
So, yes, bad trade by Philly, but Philly never had a shot at Tatum. Philly essentially gave up the pick that became Romeo Langford for nothing. Even if you like Langford (I do) that is a pretty small return.
The other way to view it is that Ainge viewed Fultz as a touch better than Tatum, but found a taker for Fultz so he went with Tatum and pocketing a pick. Had he not found a taker for FUltz he would have drafted him, letting Tatum slide to Philly.
I don't buy it. I think Tatum was Ainge's guy all the way and he would have drafted him at 1 had there been any doubt that he could get him at three..
Ainge said as much before the draft, that they expected the guy they wanted to be there at the third pick.
Comparing the 50, 60+ games count against guys from the 80s is missing a lot of context. Larry Bird's first 3pt attempt in his life was in the NBA. Jayson was shooting 3s since 4th grade. Guys who grew up with today's game are going to shoot better from 3 and see that reflected in all of their stats.
29.3/7.7/5.2 is obviously ridiculous over his last 20
But Embiid is 29.5/11.2/4.4 for the year. Giannis is 29.4/11.6/6.0 for the year. Jokic is 25.4/13.8/7.9 for the year.
Tatum is way far out from being an MVP
That was odd to me as well. On the most recent Hoop Collective podcast, the trivia question was about which active players hold their team’s single-game scoring record. Aside from anomalies like Wilt, so many of those records were set in the past decade. It’s such much easier for players to hit the mark of 50 if they are having a decent shooting night, than it was before the three point field goal was popular. Karl-Anthony Towns averaged a more than a full three point attempt per game in 19-20 (7.9) than Reggie Miller did in his career-high season (6.6).
Who's the top 10?
Embiid
Jokic
GA
Derozan
LBJ
Curry
Doncic
Morant
?? Tatum ??
Those guys are ahead to me. Given injuries/time missed, there's a number of guys on a similar level, but I wouldn't hesitate to put Tatum ahead of them for this season.
Butler
Durant
Paul
Booker
Mitchell
Van Vleet
Young
Harden
Makes sense.
No knock on the game today, and hell, Tatum would have looked like he came from outer space in 1985. Most of today's top scorers would. Nobody really shot 3s then.
It's like talking about Gibson's 1968 without mentioning that six other guys had an ERA under 2. It was a fantastic season for pitching. Marichal had 30 complete games.
It’s so weird to think of Larry not shooting many threes. Between winning the competition at the All Star Game and some of his iconic baskets being threes (the Hawks 60 point game being one of them), my memory tells me the three was a significant part of his game. The numbers however …
If you limit it to draft day trades (or pick for pick trades), it's probably in the discussion.
This is one of those situations where Ainge doesn't gain anything by being honest, if this is. Maybe Tatum was always his #1 choice and maybe it would have been Fultz if he hadn't traded out, but this way he looks smart (getting an extra asset for nothing) and makes his own player feel good.
Per the odds, he's behind Embiid, Jokic, Giannis, Ja, Derozen, Curry, Booker, Doncic, Durant, Lebron and Butler, so he's 12th. Realistically he obviously ends up ahead of a few of these, but this is a 3 man race with maybe 3 other guys (Derozen, Ja and Curry) who have a punchers chance as we enter the final 15-20 games of the year depending on how things break. What does it matter if Tatum finishes 7th, or 10th, or 14th?
LEBRON ranks him 8th right now. It sees Embiid, Jokic, and Giannis as the clear top 3, which is obviously right. After that it has Gobert, Curry, Paul, and Butler ahead of him. Those all feel right to me except maybe Gobert (discounting him really based on how his game has never translated to the playoffs).
I don’t think Doncic, Lebron, DeRozan, Mitchell, Booker should be considered ahead of Tatum (I feel the least comfortable putting Lebron on that list for obvious reasons). Morant is a closer call. You could also convince me either or both of Harden and Durant belong above Tatum.
In short, Tatum remains a borderline top 10 guy but probably should be in the top 10. He’s definitely going to be in the MVP mix on a perennial basis going forward though.
Hmm, not sure I'd have Butler ahead of Tatum; Gobert is clearly behind imo. I'd put Durant pretty far ahead of Tatum.
The "Doncic, Lebron, DeRozan, Mitchell, Booker" group (plus Morant kinda) is fairly defensively challenged, or at best neutral on that end. Obviously offensive creation is the premium NBA skill, but Tatum has that skill, so his defense puts him clearly ahead of that group; it's probably not particularly close at this point.
Harden is a weird case--if the Brooklyn situation was just a motivation issue, he's better, but need to see some more Philly games.
I'd put it as:
Tier 1, in no order:
Embiid, Jokic Giannis, Durant (if healthy)
Tier 2, in no order:
Tatum, Curry Paul, Butler, Morant, Harden, maybe Luka
Can rank the other guys from there, but it's time to start thinking of Tatum as the tier just below the MVP candidates.
If 3 pointers counted as 2, Bird would have two career 50-point games and Tatum one. There are other changes in the game that also make it easier today. Even so. In the past decade which Celtics have scored 50 in a game? Tatum 6 times, Thomas (Isaiah not Brodric!) twice, Brown once.
This season alone, it as been done 11 times:
- Tatum: 2 (54, 51)
- LeBron: 1 (56)
- Trae: 1 (56)
- Morant: 1 (52)
- Doncic: 1 (51)
- Durant: 1 (51)
- Giannis: 1 (50)
- Jaylen: 1 (50)
- Steph: 1 (50)
- Embiid: 1 (50)
Last season, including playoffs, it was done 18 times:
- Tatum: 4 (60, 53, 50 play-in, 50 playoffs)
- Steph: 3 (62, 57, 53)
- Beal: 2 (60, 50)
- Lillard: 2 (55 playoffs, 50)
- Van Vleet: 1 (54)
- Giannis: 1 (50 playoffs)
- Embiid: 1 (50)
- Jokic: 1 (50)
- LaVine: 1 (50)
- Murray: 1 (50)
- Kevin Porter Jr.: 1 (50)
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He also had 10 potential and 3 hockey assists yesterday, god damn. He was making the right play almost every trip down.
It depends on how he finishes, but I think if he plays well the rest of the way, second team is close to a lock. Something like this
1st Team: Morant, Doncic, DeRozan, Giannis, Jokic
2nd Team: CP3, Curry, Tatum, KD, Embiid
3rd Team: Trae/Mitchell, Booker/Harden, Butler, James, Gobert
Butler and LeBron are his competition. Butler has missed 20 games, and LeBron is on a bad team. I think 2nd team for Tatum is pretty likely, particularly if the "Celtics are contenders" narrative makes it to the end of the season.
Just note Tatum had the votes to be 3rd team All-NBA last season. Some sort of positional nonsense. The NBA is ignoring the whole Wing thing and named 5 PGs to the 3 teams.
The year before Tatum was 11th in All-NBA votes/points and just finished behind Siakam for 2nd team.
The Celtics' .500 record probably dinged Tatum last season. Imagine a strong finish to the season by the C's and his continuous improvement will lead to All-NBA 2nd team (even while shooting 33.4% from 3)
The year before Tatum was 11th in All-NBA votes/points and just finished behind Siakam for 2nd team.
The Celtics' .500 record probably dinged Tatum last season. Imagine a strong finish to the season by the C's and his continuous improvement will lead to All-NBA 2nd team (even while shooting 33.4% from 3)
I have very different teams than you
1st - Ja, Curry, Lebron, Giannis, Jokic
2nd - CP3, Luka, DeRozan, KD, Embiid
3rd - Trae, VanVleet, Tatum, Butler, Gobert
It was significant in the sense that he was always top 10 in the league in 3PA and and in 85/86 and 86/87 he led the league in 3PM. So, comparatively speaking, it was. But it's just wild to compare it to today's game.
In 86/87, Bird LED THE LEAGUE by hitting 90 three pointers. That number would be 98th in the NBA today, with the season only 75% or so over. Grant Williams has hit more threes this season, than Bird did that year.
Presumably because All NBA cares about positions, and Ja plays a different one than Tatum.
All the national games against other superstars has been helping his case. He needs to keep it up obviously, but he is consistently doing this on the national stage. Next up, Sunday against Luka, also KG’s jersey retirement.
View: https://twitter.com/LucidSportsFan/status/1500871376672022533?s=20&t=2VLZOL34sfl_EhmX0XVDHg
View: https://twitter.com/LucidSportsFan/status/1500871376672022533?s=20&t=2VLZOL34sfl_EhmX0XVDHg