Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top

[Euclis20]

The one remaining thing that is needed for Tatum to be a Top 5 player is for him to be reffed like a Top 5 player.

Tatum is 61st in FTr, after finishing 94th last year and 103rd the year before. He's 11th in FTA/game (7th in total attempts) and 10 in FTM/game (6th in total makes). At this point what separates him from being solid top 10 is hitting 3s at the same rate as in past years. If he was hitting 39.6% of his 3s (his career average entering this year), he'd be averaging an efficient 28/8/4 while playing borderline all-NBA level defense and pretty durable on top of that (other than Covid, he's barely missed any time in his career). That's a top 10 guy, and an annual threat to lead the league in scoring.

 

[PedrosRedGlove]

He's getting there slowly. Thirteenth in the league with 6.2 FTA/g this year, up from 27th and 33rd the last 2 years.

With that it seems like his temperament with the refs has improved, I think how quickly he started whining emphatically when not getting superstar treatment may have hurt him a little in terms of winning the refs' favor. He's still vocal with them, but seems to be more level-headed, going about it like you'd expect a captain of a team too, not just flailing his arms in disgust at non-calls.

Spoke a little too soon, on cue he picks up a tech for doing just that, old habits die hard.

 

[benhogan]

Tatum is 61st in FTr, after finishing 94th last year and 103rd the year before. He's 11th in FTA/game (7th in total attempts) and 10 in FTM/game (6th in total makes). At this point what separates him from being solid top 10 is hitting 3s at the same rate as in past years. If he was hitting 39.6% of his 3s (his career average entering this year), he'd be averaging an efficient 28/8/4 while playing borderline all-NBA level defense and pretty durable on top of that (other than Covid, he's barely missed any time in his career). That's a top 10 guy, and an annual threat to lead the league in scoring.

really? he has to shoot 40% from 3, 28/8/4, play every game big minutes, and be all-NBA defense to crack the top 10?

defense still not getting the respect it should

 

[JakeRae]

Tatum is 61st in FTr, after finishing 94th last year and 103rd the year before. He's 11th in FTA/game (7th in total attempts) and 10 in FTM/game (6th in total makes). At this point what separates him from being solid top 10 is hitting 3s at the same rate as in past years. If he was hitting 39.6% of his 3s (his career average entering this year), he'd be averaging an efficient 28/8/4 while playing borderline all-NBA level defense and pretty durable on top of that (other than Covid, he's barely missed any time in his career). That's a top 10 guy, and an annual threat to lead the league in scoring.

Tatum is a top 10 player playing exactly like he has on average this year. Tatum with everything he has added and shooting 40% from three is a top 3 player.

 

[Euclis20]

Tatum is a top 10 player playing exactly like he has on average this year. Tatum with everything he has added and shooting 40% from three is a top 3 player.

People here are underestimating just how good Giannis (30/11.5/6), Embiid (30/11/4.5) and Jokic (26/14/8) have been this year, plus all are far more efficient scorers than Tatum, plus Embiid/Giannis are 1st team level defenders (and Jokic seems to have improved immensely at that end). Not to mention Durant (29/7/6), who remains the most efficient high volume scorer in the league when he's on the court, and guys like Lebron (30/8/6), Luka (28/9/8.5), Curry (25.5/5/6) and Ja (27.5/5.5/6.5). They can't really compare defensively, but offensively they're in the conversation. Not to mention the shitheads (Harden is averaging 23/8/10) and injured guys like Davis and Kawhi (not to mention the veterans who a lot of people might put over Tatum, like Derozen, Dame, Butler).

really? he has to shoot 40% from 3, 28/8/4, play every game big minutes, and be all-NBA defense to crack the top 10?

defense still not getting the respect it should

The advanced stats like him more than most, but no national outlet (and I mean none of them) has had Tatum in the top 10 when they do their rankings. In their midseason tier rankings, the athletic had Tatum in the 4th tier, ranked 13-16. The Ringer did their midseason rankings a few weeks ago, Tatum was 12th. NBC sports midseason rankings had Tatum 13th. CBS sports has him 12th. Sporting news has him 14th. SI has him 13th.

The advanced stats like him more, but I'm not putting all my weight behind those just yet (I see RAPTOR has him ranked 2nd, but it also has VanVleet ranked 6th. So, yeah). He's been consistently ranked in the 11-14 range, and has a good chance of making 2nd team all-NBA because some of the guys in front of him (Durant, Davis) have missed too much time to really make the team. Maybe it's just consistency that he needs to improve on, but yes, if he averages an efficient 28/8/4, stays durable and plays borderline all-NBA level D (he's not making an all-defense team this year, whether he deserves to or not), he'll start being considered a top 10 player when people actually sit down and make their lists. There are a lot of great players in the NBA right now, and it takes a lot to crack that top group.

 

[benhogan]

People here are underestimating just how good Giannis (30/11.5/6), Embiid (30/11/4.5) and Jokic (26/14/8) have been this year, plus all are far more efficient scorers than Tatum, plus Embiid/Giannis are 1st team level defenders (and Jokic seems to have improved immensely at that end). Not to mention Durant (29/7/6), who remains the most efficient high volume scorer in the league when he's on the court, and guys like Lebron (30/8/6), Luka (28/9/8.5), Curry (25.5/5/6) and Ja (27.5/5.5/6.5). They can't really compare defensively, but offensively they're in the conversation. Not to mention the shitheads (Harden is averaging 23/8/10) and injured guys like Davis and Kawhi (not to mention the veterans who a lot of people might put over Tatum, like Derozen, Dame, Butler).



The advanced stats like him more than most, but no national outlet (and I mean none of them) has had Tatum in the top 10 when they do their rankings. In their midseason tier rankings, the athletic had Tatum in the 4th tier, ranked 13-16. The Ringer did their midseason rankings a few weeks ago, Tatum was 12th. NBC sports midseason rankings had Tatum 13th. CBS sports has him 12th. Sporting news has him 14th. SI has him 13th.

The advanced stats like him more, but I'm not putting all my weight behind those just yet (I see RAPTOR has him ranked 2nd, but it also has VanVleet ranked 6th. So, yeah). He's been consistently ranked in the 11-14 range, and has a good chance of making 2nd team all-NBA because some of the guys in front of him (Durant, Davis) have missed too much time to really make the team. Maybe it's just consistency that he needs to improve on, but yes, if he averages an efficient 28/8/4, stays durable and plays borderline all-NBA level D (he's not making an all-defense team this year, whether he deserves to or not), he'll start being considered a top 10 player when people actually sit down and make their lists. There are a lot of great players in the NBA right now, and it takes a lot to crack that top group.

I believe you changed his 3pt shooting to 40%, which completely alters the dynamic. That would be laughable for even the mainstream NBA press to not consider him TOP5 in the NBA. That player passes Luka

BUT I realize most of those lists don't consider defense all that important... thankfully Brad does.

 

[Euclis20]

I believe you changed his 3pt shooting to 40%, which completely alters the dynamic. That would be laughable for even the mainstream NBA press to not consider him TOP5 in the NBA. That player passes Luka

BUT I realize most of those lists don't consider defense all that important... thankfully Brad does.

I think that even if his 3p% normalizes, top 5 is going to be a hard sell. It wouldn't get him in the top 3 (Giannis/Embiid/Jokic), nor does it get him to Durant, The 5th spot is his absolute ceiling if his only improvement is 3 point shooting, and there are a TON of guys in that conversation. Most national figures will put Curry or LeBron there, with Doncic right behind. I'm comfortable saying that no matter how he finishes the regular season, absolutely no one will have him above any of those 7 guys.

 

[nighthob]

Tatum will just have to settle for leading the ‘22 Celtics to the title while the MVP leads the Nuggets on an April vacation.

 

[RorschachsMask]

If there was a poll amongst coaches/execs right now, every single one would have Tatum in the top 10. The top 5 seems pretty clear, IMO.

Jokic
Giannis
Embiid
Steph
KD

After that? Some variation of Luka, LeBron, Tatum, Morant, and maybe Towns or Mitchell? Obviously Kawhi would play into this if healthy, but I’m just talking about right now.

 

[Euclis20]

Tatum will just have to settle for leading the ‘22 Celtics to the title while the MVP leads the Nuggets on an April vacation.

From your lips to Gods ear's but that's less about the difference between Jokic and Tatum and more about the fact that if you combined both teams and ranked everyone, 4 of the top 5 guys (at least) are gonna be Celtics. Maybe that changes when Murray and MPJ comes back, but it's certainly the case today. The Celtics aren't super deep but their closing 5 and top 7 are excellent, with a couple of very solid role players after that who can be situationally useful.

 

[SteveF]

The top 4 is great -- Giannis, Durant, Embiid, Jokic -- but I can't remember a time when the gaps in talent were this small. Even the 10th best player in the NBA is insanely good -- so good frankly, it's not that hard to imagine that guy outplaying a top 5 player in a playoff series.

Pair that with the fact that 2 of those 4 players are centers that lack defensive versatility (a real issue in a playoff series), and the whole "best player" theory of picking playoff series winners has never been less relevant.

 

[Jimbodandy]

From your lips to Gods ear's but that's less about the difference between Jokic and Tatum and more about the fact that if you combined both teams and ranked everyone, 4 of the top 5 guys (at least) are gonna be Celtics. Maybe that changes when Murray and MPJ comes back, but it's certainly the case today. The Celtics aren't super deep but their closing 5 and top 7 are excellent, with a couple of very solid role players after that who can be situationally useful.

Interesting note: MPJ is almost 24 and has scored fewer points in his NBA career than Tatum has this year.

Not that anyone was comparing MPJ to JT, but I love some good MPJ talk.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

The top 4 is great -- Giannis, Durant, Embiid, Jokic -- but I can't remember a time when the gaps in talent were this small. Even the 10th best player in the NBA is insanely good -- so good frankly, it's not that hard to imagine that guy outplaying a top 5 player in a playoff series.

Pair that with the fact that 2 of those 4 players are centers that lack defensive versatility (a real issue in a playoff series), and the whole "best player" theory of picking playoff series winners has never been less relevant.

This post is on point. Ranking players is silly precisely because top ones including those in ascendance can outplay each other on a given night or even a series.

Back to Tatum, he is on one right now like a rock star on tour. The efficiency is crazy and its not just his shooting. The game appears to be coming easy to him and its a joy to watch.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I wonder whether getting Tatum out of the post and getting more of his 3s in the spots/rhythm he would take them in 2019-2021 helps. The way they use him now, initiating the offense and passing to a PG out of doubles, leaves him one-on-one in comfortable self-generated 3 situations more often.

Earlier in the year, playing out of the post, he was getting decent assisted looks from 3 (and more assisted chances than past few years) but missing a lot of them. There's something to be said for running an offense that is both more threatening to the defense, and gets Tatum the rhythm on 3s he likes.

One recent broadcast said that JT saw a flaw in his mechanics - his elbow was flying out and I think the broadvast daid that he needed to raise his shooting pocket to keep his elbow in, He's not missing left or right very much these days.

 

[Euclis20]

Tatum now has a pretty crazy home/road split on 3p%: .301 at home, .390 on the road. Coming into this year, he was slightly better at home (.406 at home, .383 on the road). It likely doesn't mean anything, but odd to see.

 

[lovegtm]

One recent broadcast said that JT saw a flaw in his mechanics - his elbow was flying out and I think the broadvast daid that he needed to raise his shooting pocket to keep his elbow in, He's not missing left or right very much these days.

Interesting; I had missed that.

 

[lovegtm]

The Tatum without any other starter out there lineups are approaching 200 minutes, they have a net rating of +22.96 in those minutes, with a 125 offensive rating.

So far in 2022…
The Celtics offensive rating w/ Tatum ON the floor: 118.6
The Celtics offensive rating w/ Tatum OFF the floor: 103.8

That net difference (14.8) is greater than the difference (13.1) between the current #1 offense and the current #30 offense in the NBA.

Next highest difference in ON/OFF offensive rating on the team is Smart at 6.0.

This passes the eye test too: Tatum can consistently generate offensive advantages in ways that really open things up. We argue about how much his defense should be counted, but he might already be in the 2nd tier of offensive creators, right below the Durant/Embiid/Jokic offensive superstars.

 

[RorschachsMask]

This passes the eye test too: Tatum can consistently generate offensive advantages in ways that really open things up. We argue about how much his defense should be counted, but he might already be in the 2nd tier of offensive creators, right below the Durant/Embiid/Jokic offensive superstars.

One of my favorite things right now is watching Tatum scan the whole floor on these really high out PnR’s, those corner lasers he’s been hitting are HARD passes, and he’s making them look effortless.

 

[lovegtm]

One of my favorite things right now is watching Tatum scan the whole floor on these really high out PnR’s, those corner lasers he’s been hitting are HARD passes, and he’s making them look effortless.

Yeah, a lot of people are still stuck in the "Jayson Tatum shoots 3s and makes basic reads" stage, and he's moved well beyond that.

A cursory look at his game misses this, because he doesn't post big assist numbers, but on/off and the eye test capture it well. Even leaving aside defense, he's a lot closer to being a top-7 offensive player than people think.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Tatum now has a pretty crazy home/road split on 3p%: .301 at home, .390 on the road. Coming into this year, he was slightly better at home (.406 at home, .383 on the road). It likely doesn't mean anything, but odd to see.

Interesting. BRef doesn't break H/R stats out by month but one can sort on NBA.com.

March: H = 35.3% / R = 59.5%
February: H = 25.8% / R = 36.1%
January: H = 23.4% / R = 43.5%

And just for fun, since JT went 0-13 on 3Ps against CHO and POR in January, he's shooting 40.3% from 3P. In the last 7 games, he's shooting 49.3% on 10.1 attempts per game.

People wondered what the Cs would be like if JT was back to his 40% 3P shooting. We're seeing it now the way they are killing folks on the road. Amazing.

 

[bakahump]

Tatum will just have to settle for leading the ‘22 Celtics to the title while the MVP leads the Nuggets on an April vacation.

Right.
Who Cares if he a "Top 10 Player". He is as good as all those guys. At least from the aspect of "Can a team fronted by Tatum beat a team fronted by those other 10 guys you list". The problem is when your best guy cant. Our best guy can.
And actually we KNOW who Cares about this. Tatum cares about this. Which is an AMAZING thing. Because it means he will continue to feel slighted and work harder to beat those guys.

Lets face it Tatum wont get the "Top 3/5" kudos until he leads this team to a Finals. I am not certain he has to win. But if he takes the celts to a finals and has a 30/10/4 series he will get into those "Conversations".

In the mean time it really doesnt matter because as the "13th best player in the league" he is currently fronting the best team in the league.

 

[Just a bit outside]

One of my favorite things right now is watching Tatum scan the whole floor on these really high out PnR’s, those corner lasers he’s been hitting are HARD passes, and he’s making them look effortless.

He made a pass to Grant last night that was exquisite. Rifled it between a couple defenders right into the shooting pocket for a 3. Tatum with Grant and PP in the corners and TimeLord rim running is really putting defenses in an almost impossible situation right now.

 

[Everetts Dinosaurs]

He made a pass to Grant last night that was exquisite. Rifled it between a couple defenders right into the shooting pocket for a 3. Tatum with Grant and PP in the corners and TimeLord rim running is really putting defenses in an almost impossible situation right now.

This. This is what it looks like to build a team around your star. Perfect complimentary pieces.

 

[jmcc5400]

He made a pass to Grant last night that was exquisite. Rifled it between a couple defenders right into the shooting pocket for a 3. Tatum with Grant and PP in the corners and TimeLord rim running is really putting defenses in an almost impossible situation right now.

There was also the break that the Celtics somewhat botched, Tatum took it out to the three point line, drilled Rob who was trailing and filling the lane and then Rob fired it right back to Tatum for the kiss-off three. Gorgeous.

 

[DJnVa]

Tatum was was EC Player of the Week.

 

[Euclis20]

Tatum was was EC Player of the Week.

His second award in the last three weeks. Lining up nicely for his second EC player of the month award (first time was February 2020).

 

[DGreenwood]

Just watching the OKC game, Tatum's confidence is insane right now. It's like he knows he just leveled up.

 

[RorschachsMask]

View: https://twitter.com/CelticsRiley/status/1506097142028505095?s=20&t=bNZcVx7dFP3Z4Q270ArRhQ


View: https://twitter.com/lissmx14/status/1506098021867704324?s=20&t=8l7ImW6pN4rwdeBsuN3Oyw

 

[HomeRunBaker]

And he got fouled twice.

I’m glad you aren’t an NBA ref. We’d have 5-hour games LOL!!

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

View: https://twitter.com/CelticsRiley/status/1506097142028505095?s=20&t=bNZcVx7dFP3Z4Q270ArRhQ


View: https://twitter.com/lissmx14/status/1506098021867704324?s=20&t=8l7ImW6pN4rwdeBsuN3Oyw

Damn. I mean we all know it but when you see the numbers like that its still pretty staggering.

It will be fascinating to see what defenses he faces in the playoffs and what, if anything they can do to stop him. Eye test stuff here but its not just that he is setting up others more. His actual passes seem sharper as well. The fact that he now has a reliable cast around him is almost certainly a contributor to his improved distribution but a lot of it feels organic as well.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Twitter

January 23rd also marked the return of Marcus Smart. He has played in 25 of the 26 games since. Pretty much everyone has been playing great since then outside of maybe JB. He's been better of late, tho.

Of course, if a team is 22-4 over a 26 game stretch... things are going pretty well.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Damn. I mean we all know it but when you see the numbers like that its still pretty staggering.

It will be fascinating to see what defenses he faces in the playoffs and what, if anything they can do to stop him. Eye test stuff here but its not just that he is setting up others more. His actual passes seem sharper as well. The fact that he now has a reliable cast around him is almost certainly a contributor to his improved distribution but a lot of it feels organic as well.

Agreed on the sharpness of the passes. I'm not sure what the drill is, but it really seems like the quality of Tatum's passes are something that he's been working on and are demonstrably different. Lots of one-hand rifle passes, especially, that are coming in hot and designed for an instant score following. Those just didn't exist at the beginning of the season.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Agreed on the sharpness of the passes. I'm not sure what the drill is, but it really seems like the quality of Tatum's passes are something that he's been working on and are demonstrably different. Lots of one-hand rifle passes, especially, that are coming in hot and designed for an instant score following. Those just didn't exist at the beginning of the season.

That pass to Jaylen in the corner last night was exactly the type that you describe. And yeah, that's a recent development though there are plenty of other examples recently. Those sorts of dimes are near-certain death to teams trying to double him.

 

[lovegtm]

It's funny that his assist numbers are identical to last year's, while the playmaking and offensive impact are clearly at another level now.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

It's funny that his assist numbers are identical to last year's, while the playmaking and offensive impact are clearly at another level now.

His assist rate is at 21.7% since the start of the calendar year which is obviously trending towards career highs.

 

[RorschachsMask]

It's funny that his assist numbers are identical to last year's, while the playmaking and offensive impact are clearly at another level now.

He’s running PnR about 7% less than last year still, though since Schroder has been gone, it’s been rapidly increasing. Also is in the bottom 10-20 in potential assists to actual assist conversion rate, last I saw.

When people point out the lack of assists, I try to show them that there’s more to it. As you’ve pointed out, he’s at his best as a playmaker off of these high PnR’s. As he keeps doing them more, the assists will keep climbing.

 

[lovegtm]

Tatum's passing is at a completely different level (for him) now. Wrt all the "is he top-10" stuff...if he were doing exactly the same things on the court, and his name were Kawhi Leonard or Jimmy Butler, people would think of him as clear top-5.

F it, bring on the Nets.

 

[RorschachsMask]

Here’s his points and TS in March.

33/59%
37/65%
54/72%
44/83%
31/55%
21/42%
26/61%
32/97%
30/84%
36/78%
26/80%

And that doesn’t even really come close to showing how great he’s been.

 

[bakahump]

Anyone else wonder about the Grant-JT Dynamic?

JT just always seems like he talking about his annoying shit talking little brother. Not in a bad way just in a "Yea....Grants nuts man" kinda way.

From the "Throw me the OOOP/ I Made a management decistion" thing to the "I Aint calling him Batman".

Good chemistry despite the or maybe because of the "Little Brother" vibes.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

It's funny that his assist numbers are identical to last year's, while the playmaking and offensive impact are clearly at another level now.

His assist rate is at 21.7% since the start of the calendar year which is obviously trending towards career highs.

He also may be a bit "hurt" in this area by the fact that the ball movement is so much better all around. Since Marcus is often the most available guy across the way when the double comes above the break, chances are good we're getting 1-2 more passes and a wide open look that wasn't necessarily assisted by Tatum but was almost definitely created by his mere presence.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Anyone else wonder about the Grant-JT Dynamic?

JT just always seems like he talking about his annoying shit talking little brother. Not in a bad way just in a "Yea....Grants nuts man" kinda way.

From the "Throw me the OOOP/ I Made a management decistion" thing to the "I Aint calling him Batman".

Good chemistry despite the or maybe because of the "Little Brother" vibes.

I think I've read that they are close.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

He also may be a bit "hurt" in this area by the fact that the ball movement is so much better all around. Since Marcus is often the most available guy across the way when the double comes above the break, chances are good we're getting 1-2 more passes and a wide open look that wasn't necessarily assisted by Tatum but was almost definitely created by his mere presence.

Yeah, if someone were tracking "hockey" assists in the last 2 months, I'll bet Tatum's assist numbers would be well into the double digits. When they throw a double at him, he's starting to get rid of it quickly (a lot of times to someone near the free throw line, like TL or Al or Smart) and then they are moving it quickly again to a wing or a corner. The assists are getting gobbled up, but because Tatum is the guy starting the ball movement, he's not getting credited with as many as he rightfully deserves. Yesterday, the C's had like 10 assists in the first 9 minutes of the game, just fucking insane efficiency, and it all starts with JT.

 

[DGreenwood]

I think they do track hockey assists. They just call them secondary assists. I read this article about it a while ago.
Secondary Assists

 

[RorschachsMask]

View: https://twitter.com/TheVolumeSports/status/1507062191354114050?s=20&t=UHYboiLNN3XuVscnOnnPLg

 

[TripleOT]

Tatum’s playmaking really shines when he’s out there with the reserves. The defense feels it can load up more on him with the second unit accompanying him, and lately JT is quickly making the right play.

Tatum with two plus40% shooters from three and a center in Theis who can space the floor to three point land is a dangerous second unit. White hasn’t made many threes, but is x good playmaker once Tatum passes to him out of the double team

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

View: https://twitter.com/TheVolumeSports/status/1507062191354114050?s=20&t=UHYboiLNN3XuVscnOnnPLg

That's so exciting.

They both believe he has the ability to be MVP and face of the league. Draymond says that on team USA, the players viewed the pecking order as Durant and then Tatum, and there were times when Durant was looking to him to take the reins on occasion.

Hearing that some of the best players in the world knew to defer to a 19 year old kid? Crazy.

 

[Euclis20]

That's so exciting.

They both believe he has the ability to be MVP and face of the league. Draymond says that on team USA, the players viewed the pecking order as Durant and then Tatum, and there were times when Durant was looking to him to take the reins on occasion.

Hearing that some of the best players in the world knew to defer to a 19 year old kid? Crazy.

Like Tatum, this joke will never get old.

Glad to hear them say what was pretty clear to anyone watching. Tatum came off the bench and was just 5th in minutes, but was 2nd in points.

 

[RorschachsMask]

I gotta say, it’s been really freaking cool watching someone make the MVP leap.

View: https://twitter.com/NBATV/status/1507351030132056065?s=20&t=njpRlVpTu_6rETtFM7sgnw

 

[lovegtm]

Yeah, the leap is incredible. Regardless of the nitpicking about his exact ranking, the Celtics are now clearly in the conversation of "teams who have an elite guy and are always contenders if the rest of the roster is coherent."

 

[BigSoxFan]

Yeah, the leap is incredible. Regardless of the nitpicking about his exact ranking, the Celtics are now clearly in the conversation of "teams who have an elite guy and are always contenders if the rest of the roster is coherent."

We finally have our top 10 guy again.