Those misses are all horrible with the exception of the one with 8:29 remaining in the 1st.
Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top
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Yeah, I'm trying to focus mostly on the process (he was taking shots that, regardless of results, were pretty bad), but his 3-pointer seems pretty broken right now generally.
The three he took in the second quarter was the most egregious. He was well behind the line, not sure if anyone else touched the ball on that possession, there was tons of time on the clock, and he missed badly. I’m sure that’s the sort of thing that his teammates notice, too.
I thought he had some nice boards throughout the night and looked great driving to the basket.
I thought he had some nice boards throughout the night and looked great driving to the basket.
Right. To be clear, I'm saying the same thing - the misses were horrible shot selection. They also all happened to be really ugly shots. None of them were close.
It’s kind of funny that over the last few years, Tatum can’t make pull-ups, Jaylen can’t make catch & shoot, and this offense is still as good as it’s been.
Nice trends with Tatum have been that he’s at 5 assists and 2.2 TO’s a game over the last five games. Just forcing less passes into traffic, and everyone is getting more familiar with each other.
Also he’s starting to drive a lot more, 14 last night, and 11.4 over the last five games, getting to the line way more recently, 8.5 per game over the last ten. Once the pull-up bounces back from this horrid stretch, hes going to be putting up an efficient 30 every night. Went 1-5 on them last night, which makes him 8 for his last 49 lol.
Nice trends with Tatum have been that he’s at 5 assists and 2.2 TO’s a game over the last five games. Just forcing less passes into traffic, and everyone is getting more familiar with each other.
Also he’s starting to drive a lot more, 14 last night, and 11.4 over the last five games, getting to the line way more recently, 8.5 per game over the last ten. Once the pull-up bounces back from this horrid stretch, hes going to be putting up an efficient 30 every night. Went 1-5 on them last night, which makes him 8 for his last 49 lol.
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Agree that Tatum has been playing great.
But what is the reason for him to keep taking the pull-up, if it has an upside of being a 29-34% shot? I don't mean never taking it, or not taking it off PnR, but we've shown a ton of evidence in this thread that he jacks a lot of unjustified bad ones.
The dude is just way too good at driving and posting to keep doing this.
I don’t think he’s going to stop, so I’d just like it to be closer to 3-4 times per game as opposed to 5-6. He needs to be more selective with them.
Im also still holding out hope that he can get to the 35% he was after 14 games lol. 34-36% would be a really good number, he’d be around 40% from three overall. Could be wishful thinking, it’s the same as me hoping Jaylen will suddenly be able to hit C&S threes after being under 34% the last three years. I’ll keep hoping until it happens.
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I’m gonna swim against the current here and note that it seems like his inefficient pull ups unlock his efficient driving. There were 3-4 times last night where a slight hesitation at the three point line put the defender on his heels and enabled Tatum to get a pretty easy layup. If he stops being aggressive with the three point shot in those situations, smart defenders will be able to lay back and wait for the drive.
For a high usage scorer like him - really the hub of the Celtics offense - we just kind of have to accept there’s going to be some waste in his game. This isn’t smart chucking threes early in the clock, it’s the guy who’s going to be the source of shot creation when things grind to a halt in the playoffs and the movement stuff is less effective. Making defenders feel like they have to be up on him everywhere on the court plays to his advantage, even if he goes through gross cold streaks like this.
For a high usage scorer like him - really the hub of the Celtics offense - we just kind of have to accept there’s going to be some waste in his game. This isn’t smart chucking threes early in the clock, it’s the guy who’s going to be the source of shot creation when things grind to a halt in the playoffs and the movement stuff is less effective. Making defenders feel like they have to be up on him everywhere on the court plays to his advantage, even if he goes through gross cold streaks like this.
I agree with defenders definitely trying to take it away, but I feel like there’s a middle ground. He’s cut them down a bit over the last few weeks, but 4 a game is definitely enough to keep the defenders guessing.
Yeah that’s probably the ideal, but I’m just not going to get annoyed if he has games where he goes above that. Were this pretty much anyone else on the team, I’d find it frustrating, but given his role, I just see it as practice/development. This regular season is an 82 game preseason for the Cs, and all Tatum needs to do is prepare himself as best he can for those 2-3 minutes at the end of a half-dozen close games in the playoffs. The bigger the bag he can take into those moments the better, even if it comes with some growing pains and bad shooting nights.
I have a larger thought about how efficiency often comes with predictability, and in a strange way inefficiency is beneficial in the playoffs because it brings unpredictability, but I should probably table that for a different post.
@ManicCompression, I disagree with pretty much every word of that post. For this particular team, with this amount of talent, I really don’t feel like we have to “accept waste”. No matter who the player is. This team is way too good offensively that we have to accept the primary option taking awful 3’s with no ball movement just because he’s the primary option. The starting 5 are all top 3 options on basically every other NBA team. Your post makes it seem like he’s playing on the Wizards or some other lowly team where his teammates suck so he may as well get his shots up. IMO, your post completely lacks context even as you try to give it context
Not only that, but he’s “practicing to add it to his bag”?! He’s been doing that type of shot multiple times per game for multiple years! This isn’t some new novelty that Hanlon told him over the summer and he needs to get his reps in, this has been his “signature” move!
Why are we accepting 4-5 or 5-6 pull ups without ball movement? Honestly, that’s kind of insane to me. Thats a low percentage shot and it puts 0 pressure on the defense.
2-3 ISO pull-ups I will force myself to accept because thats the nature of star guards and forwards in the NBA. Anything more than that, on the 2023 Celtics, is stupid. I’m surprised that this is even a conversation.
Not only that, but he’s “practicing to add it to his bag”?! He’s been doing that type of shot multiple times per game for multiple years! This isn’t some new novelty that Hanlon told him over the summer and he needs to get his reps in, this has been his “signature” move!
Why are we accepting 4-5 or 5-6 pull ups without ball movement? Honestly, that’s kind of insane to me. Thats a low percentage shot and it puts 0 pressure on the defense.
2-3 ISO pull-ups I will force myself to accept because thats the nature of star guards and forwards in the NBA. Anything more than that, on the 2023 Celtics, is stupid. I’m surprised that this is even a conversation.
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I guess I’m just struggling to quite understand how the step back, especially well beyond the arc, helps open up his drives to the basket. Any middle school basketball coach would tell his or her players to let Tatum take that shot all day if he wants it and instead make sure he doesn’t drive to the basket. I’m not saying they would completely leave him undefended, NBA players are good enough to nominally contest the shot while protecting against the drive, but I would certainly expect them not to contest it too strenuously.
It’s not 5-6 possessions without ball movement though, some are after plays break down, some are clean looks off of PnR, etc. I’d guess the iso dribble ones without ball movement is more 2-3, which happens with every team, every game, in the history of basketball. I’d rather him not take those lol, but star players on every team force multiple lower percentage shots every game.
Should Jaylen not take catch and shoot threes because he’s been just over 33% the last three years? It’s just about picking your spots, and Tatum should cut a couple out of his shot diet.
Maybe I am misreading what the conversation was. What I read was that @ManicCompression was fine with 4-7 ISO, side step 3’s with no ball movement because Tatum is the hub of the offense and this will help in the playoffs. If I am off in that interpretation then I apologize.
If they are clean looks or late in the shot clock then of course that’s fine. Everyone often starting 5 has that green light in my book
He's not exactly giannis out there, even if the percentages sometimes suggest it. You contest every shot to make it harder for him because if he does get going from 3, you're basically sunk. We can count on one hand the number of scorers in the entire league that are deadlier than tatum when he gets hot from behind the arc. Always make him work for it, even if the odds say otherwise.
Oh hell no lol, I don’t want that many.
I’m not disagreeing with anyone disliking the shot, I just think context is super important when it comes to them. And again, he’s 8 for his last 49 lol, there’s absolutely going to be significant correction back the other way.
He’s at 5.8 pull-ups per game, I just want that number closer to 4. He’s down to 5 over the last 9 or 10 games, so we know he’s capable of taking less lol.
This is all I meant yesterday when I said that during the regular season, teams aren’t worried about long term scouting. They just want to keep him from going off in that particular game, and stopping the step back is a big part of that.
Well, idk about just sidesteps, I was more talking about a combo of those and pull-ups and whatnot.
Yes, we all want the beautiful game. I would love to live in a world where the Celtics always move the ball around to find a perfect shot. They often do that and it’s great - team basketball is fun to watch. We know the playoffs are a different reality, though. When teams tighten up D in a close game, possessions with amazing ball movement are hard to come by. Scorers are forced to create offense out of nothing. And for this Celtics team, the person with that responsibility will be Tatum most of the time. All the other starters are really good, but they are not as good AT THIS SKILL as Tatum.
So, if in a tight playoff game, he fakes a step back, is able to penetrate, draws a defender to help, and dishes to an open man - or shoots his own shot - because he’s shown defenses he’s capable of taking and making that shot, then I’m all for him “wasting” some possessions in a fairly meaningless regular season. It’ll all be worth it. The thousands of minutes in the RS are simply a preparation for a handful in the postseason.
And I’ll just add this because I think it relates. During the Warriors dynasty, they were always a high turnover team. They did a lot of dumb shit with the basketball. “If they could only clean up those possessions,” some would say, pointing to how much better they could be if they played smarter. Well, maybe what made them so dangerous was the fact that they were willing to do dumb things with the ball - they were attempting passes that other teams wouldn’t. The turnovers themselves were wasteful, but the threat of the diversified passing lanes that the TOs created were incredible useful.
So in terms of tradeoffs, I’m okay with Tatum taking some dumb shots if it means defenders have to respect the possibility, particularly when these dumb shots are taken in the context of a 19-5 regular season start.
So in terms of tradeoffs, I’m okay with Tatum taking some dumb shots if it means defenders have to respect the possibility, particularly when these dumb shots are taken in the context of a 19-5 regular season start.
One other, completely unquantifiable, consideration for the early shot clock Tatum pull up threes - game flow and emotion; not really a heat check, call it a vibe check. At some point last night the C’s had pushed the lead to 12. Tatum took the ball up and immediately shot a pull up three. I don’t think he was thinking about shooting percentages or shot quality, I think he was thinking “if I sink this, I’m changing the character of the game, getting the Garden going, and forcing Mosley to call a time out.” The psychological effect of that shot can be kind of devastating. We’ve seen it when Brunson/Halliburton/Dame does it to the C’s.
I think it was also a motivation for the Marcus Smart experience, but he tended to do it when the C’s were coming back into a game, say they’d gone from down 12 to down 7, Marcus seemed dead set on taking a pull-up 3 with the idea it would keep momentum going.
Some baskets and points are worth more than their raw value because of game situation. Again, not much more to say about it because it’s unmeasurable. But I think it’s another element to the game that impacts player decisions beyond the expected value of every individual shot.
I think it was also a motivation for the Marcus Smart experience, but he tended to do it when the C’s were coming back into a game, say they’d gone from down 12 to down 7, Marcus seemed dead set on taking a pull-up 3 with the idea it would keep momentum going.
Some baskets and points are worth more than their raw value because of game situation. Again, not much more to say about it because it’s unmeasurable. But I think it’s another element to the game that impacts player decisions beyond the expected value of every individual shot.
I’ve said that I think he’s trying to figure it out during the regular season, as we all know he ups his driving a ton in the playoffs. I wouldn’t say he’s just messing around, but he knows he can get away with forcing a couple per game.
Then someone told me Dan Greenberg said the same thing this morning….so now I have to disagree with myself, out of principle.
Then someone told me Dan Greenberg said the same thing this morning….so now I have to disagree with myself, out of principle.
Tatum is the best player on the team. He is the hub of the offense.
I will just say that I hope that some of the posters engaging in this start to give the other players on the team even half of the benefit of the doubt they give Tatum on this discussion.
I will just say that I hope that some of the posters engaging in this start to give the other players on the team even half of the benefit of the doubt they give Tatum on this discussion.
No. This is silly. Players are different and have different skills and roles and contexts and limitations. How Tatum is judged vs how Brown should be judged - because that’s obviously what you’re sub-posting (so why wouldn’t you just say it?) - aren’t related to each other and I wish the false equivalence between the two would just go away on this board. It’s not useful.
To be clear, I still don’t think it’s a great shot, especially 6 times a game, no matter the situation. But thinking about game context can help to know when to expect it.
Ok, this is an interesting response and I’m glad you said it.
Your entire argument is bullshit then. There’s no “false equivalence”. You posted nonsense as if Tatum is “practicing” side step 3 pointers. He’s not. It’s his signature shot. The past two seasons, hes fucking sucked at it. You posted a bunch of crazy qualifiers and things that, quite frankly, are pie in the sky to justify it.
If what you posted was posted about literally any other player on this team, it would be a fucking feeding frenzy.
You can admit that Tatum is your favorite player or whatever, IMO, it’s much less useful for posters to bend over backwards to support stuff that just doesn’t work.
If I said I want Jaylen to practice dribbling full court to break the press because of the playoffs, people would shit on me. If I said I want Derrick White to post up bigs because in the playoffs, bigs will be guarding him and you know, maybe he can’t break them down then people would shit on me. These aren’t rookies, these are veterans.
If it’s open everyone should have a green light. If it’s not open and you’re playing with your food, I don’t give a fuck if you’re Michael Jordan or Jesus, it’s an awful shot
This is posters taking what @lovegtm said, which is honestly incredibly hard to argue with, and turning into a separate argument because the player involved in the argument is Tatum.
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Just a FWIW, for context reasons. Tatum has 5.3 iso scoring possessions a game, and has been one of the best and most efficient iso guys in the league. It’s an interesting talking point, because he’s so very bad at iso pull-ups, but overall, he’s killed it in isolation.
I just can’t get myself to care about a couple of possessions a game in the regular season, for anything or anybody. Especially when we know he is drive first in the postseason, which is all that matters to me. That’s why I post so little on game threads, but I also have no problem with people complaining about the shots, as there’s not much to complain about this season lol. Tatum’s pull-up, Jaylen/Jrue’s efficiency, and the bench I guess, even though I think it’s a very good bench.
I just can’t get myself to care about a couple of possessions a game in the regular season, for anything or anybody. Especially when we know he is drive first in the postseason, which is all that matters to me. That’s why I post so little on game threads, but I also have no problem with people complaining about the shots, as there’s not much to complain about this season lol. Tatum’s pull-up, Jaylen/Jrue’s efficiency, and the bench I guess, even though I think it’s a very good bench.
This is a fine overall point.
I just can’t understand how you can excuse everything Tatum does while simultaneously getting worked up over other players. (That’s the proverbial you, not you specifically)
I assume you mean in general lol, but I just can’t let myself get worked up by what any of them do in the regular season. The playoffs is what it’s all about, and they’ve all earned enough trust to not worry about much, especially with how talented this team is.
I realize everyone is different though, and I’m a relaxed pothead lol.
Minor addition to the above post, I do take something from the way Jaylen is playing. I’ve always felt the team had a higher gear if he played within the scheme.
That’s the stuff I notice during the regular season, and care about. He needs to be more efficient, but I love how he’s playing.
That’s the stuff I notice during the regular season, and care about. He needs to be more efficient, but I love how he’s playing.
It's silly that we're in a thread talking about something re: Jayson Tatum, and you have to pop in and say, "Well, what about Jaylen Brown!?" It's silly when we're in a thread talking about Jaylen Brown and someone says, "Well, what about Jayson Tatum!?" If one of them were traded, the same criticisms would exist. They are not interrelated, and it makes as much sense as a Warriors fan bitching about Klay during a cold streak and then another fan saying, "Where's this when Steph misses shots!?" Or repeat that scenario with Bam and Jimmy, or name your duo. It's stupid, it's pointless, and it's uninteresting.
I would not call myself a fanboy. I've said before that Jayson Tatum is the reason this team has not won the title. If he is your best player, it is harder to win than if you had Lebron or Steph or a truly legendary player. It's somewhat of an indictment of his game that he needs the best supporting cast in basketball to even compete for a championship.
That said, he is who we have, and he's the only player on this team who realistically could win an MVP. Jaylen, OTOH, is a really, really, really good complementary player, and he would be that if he played alongside Steph, or Lebron, or Jokic, or whoever. If he was the best player on a team, they would at best make the play-in.
If you replaced Jayson Tatum on this team with a guy who is 80% as good as Jayson Tatum, they would be like a five seed and not a championship contender. If you replaced Jaylen with a guy who is 80% as good Jaylen Brown (OG? Miikael Bridges?), they would lose a few more games, but still be in the mix for a 'chip. Disagree with that if you want, but that's my point of view.
So it is internally consistent for me to talk about Jayson Tatum in terms that wonder if he's doing the right thing by trying to expand his game - because he more than anyone is the player who will determine the fate of this team - and criticize Jaylen Brown in moments when he overestimates his game. The upside of Jayson threatening opponents with an unassisted jumper =/= the upside of Jaylen dribbling off his foot in traffic. Jayson, by nature of being the best player on the team, has to do too much while Jaylen, as a second scorer, has to play within his game. These are entirely different expectations. Why would we talk about them the same?
So my argument isn't "bullshit" and doesn't have a bunch of "crazy qualifiers," it's actually pretty rooted in logic. As @RorschachsMask points out (and I've said NUMEROUS TIMES in this thread), I don't see the point in caring about a handful of possessions in the regular season, particularly when the floor for this (healthy) team is ECF. Sorry. You can be a truffle pig for hypocrisy as much as you want, but I'm def tired of the Jaylen vs. Jayson posts because they don't add anything interesting to the convo save for a few posters losing tempers over comments about a player who they've never met.
Yes! Jaylen is playing very well! I hope he plays like this in the playoffs because he's focusing on the things he's good at! There's a whole thread for him! Let's talk about that there!
This is not directed at you, just other posters who don't see how these are two entirely different conversations.
Honestly, as long as lines aren’t crossed, Ive always thought that heated back and forth usually leads to some great discourse.
my line is if someone says anything negative about my guy Luke Kornet or my guy Leon powe
Luke and White are the untouchables for me. I’m super laid back, but I’ve had some nasty arguments over White
I never said “well what about Jaylen Brown?!”, that’s your projection.
The rest of your post does nothing to address what I said, it’s all hypotheticals. And your paragraph about Tatum and Brown starting with “if you replaced” is honestly complete fucking nonsense and virtue signaling for the rest of the Tatum can do no wrong crowd to come in here and defend. THATS the problem with theJAYS discussion. If @rorschacsmask has the integrity to think he does, he would call this out as fucking nonsense because you are purposely framing this to make Jaylen look bad while Jayson looks good in an argument that has literally nothing to do with Jaylen. I am talking about how you post about Jayson
You never once addressed the questions that I posed. I don’t believe I mentioned anything about trading anyone? Actually, I know for a 100% fact I never mentioned that so I have no idea why that takes such a prominent part of your post.
And as far as me being a truffle pig for hypocrisy, so fucking being it.ill call out hypocrisy all fucking day long, while you can couch your nonsense with “oh we’ve never met these guys!!!”
Get the fuck out of here. Your post screams Tatum fanboy while trying to paint me as some sort of Tatum hater. Thays fucking nonsense. I am willing to talk about every single fucking player on this teams strengths and weaknesses and I don’t have to resort to “while I the playoffs I have this strong theory that if the best player on the team takes shitty shots it’s actually good! Because of variance and bla bla bla”
Did I miss something? I must have. I haven’t been reading this thread closely. Is the man no longer nonstop?
Right, while no one has specifically mentioned Jaylen. You’re crushing this thread man. You look so much smarter and more well intentioned than I do. Keep it up. Just a ton of value there. Can’t wait to hear your theory about inefficiency actually being awesome in the playoffs. I’m sure it will turn the basketball world upside down
Yes, clearly you were referencing the famed Derrick White vs. Jayson Tatum arguments of recent SOSH history in your original post. Silly me and my projections.
I was referencing the rest of the team. I said that multiple fucking times. Save the woe is me act or any of the other bullshit you’re projecting.
Also, nice job of choosing what to respond to in order to make yourself look better. You’ve done it throughout this thread and it’s honestly inspiring. Just clip the posts so you never actually have to back up what you say. Genius
Again, I forgot about all of the arguments we have on the board about Jayson Tatum vs. Sam Hauser, or Jayson Tatum vs. Kristaps, or Tatum vs. Horford. My bad. You were obviously posting about those without explicitly saying so and not Jaylen Brown, who never comes up in this context.
Again, completely honest posting on your part. You are a bright shining light on how others should post.
Ignore the argument, clip posts, project onto others. You are honestly flawless. I can completely understand why you’re such a popular poster. Definitely have never gotten DM’s about how you’re a dickhead and I’ve DEFINTELY never thought that on my own. How could I with all of your clipped responses? You look so good in all of them! Just thankful no one ever actually, you know, reads threads
I've been pretty explicit and longwinded about my POV. I don't know what else there is to say or how to respond to the accusation that something is "complete fucking nonsense" with no engagement to the actual argument. But basically I don't see what the point in arguing is considering you're trying to pretend like there's some other player you're referencing in the original post besides Jaylen Brown. Like, I can't think of a single bad thing I've seen written on this board about Derrick White and it's kind of comical for you to frame it as "Some posters say nice things about Jayson Tatum but don't extend that same benefit of the doubt to... Derrick White." Like what?
This is most of what I wanted to say in the first place. He's gotten so, so good at non-iso-3 isolation that he could stand to focus on it EVEN MORE than he already does, which was NOT the case earlier in his career.
The dude is a total monster when driving and posting. I agree with you that it's dumb to freak out over perfect regular season efficiency, but I'd like to see what it looks like if he dials this new iso game in even further.
Look what you did!
I agree though lol. I want him to have a 64% TS for agenda purposes, and he’s ruining it for me.
Ok then. I think that’s a pretty explicit agreement with what I’ve been posting but you do you.
If people read these posts, I have a pretty good feeling they end up on my side so I will leave this alone. I will end this with saying you have a very strong base in clipping and changing my argument. Since we are going off of reputations, absolutely no one has told me about how big of a dickhead you are, so good on you
Seriously, I'm trying to understand what you're attempting to accomplish by telling me that anonymous other posters are going behind my back to tell you that they think I'm a dickhead. Are you trying to make me feel bad about myself or something? Like anonymous people who only know me through one context have an opinion I should care about? If anything it just makes me lose respect for you that you're not just DMing me and telling me to chill or something. I think the only time I've DMed people is like messages of support. I thought we were a group of grownups, not high school cliques.
To be honest, you post in an INCREDIBLY condescending way even if your post is fucking nonsense. In your mind, it’s Harvard scholar like and above reproach
Do with all of this what you will. You post as if you are the peoples champ and just immune from criticism. The reality is the opposite. Do with that what you will. Talk about high school, clip more bullshit, whatever makes you feel good big dog. Just know it’s not reality
Cut the shit. If another poster’s argument sucks, break down why that’s so. We don’t give a shit how many PMs you’ve received dishing on another poster.
Let’s move on, folks.