JDM

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

If JDM doesn't happen, then the Duda and Morrison ideas are pretty crappy unless DD can figure out a way to dump Hanley for close to full cost (not happening). I feel like the Sox can expect some sort of bounce back from Hanley at least around an .800OPS and 25 HR's.... dumping him for pennies on the dollar and then to have him put that up for some other team while the Duda or Morrison put up similar numbers doesn't make an ounce of sense to me.
The only FA upgrade from Hanley at (mostly) DH is Martinez. If DD is truly "moving on" then he needs to get creative (many of the ways have been discussed- either though Milwaukee or Detroit). But if it's just adding second tier mostly 1B/DH Free Agent types then I don't like it

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

There really are no signs that point to disaster.

Agree 100%. There is nothing that points toward a bust with JD, whatsoever.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Agree 100%. There is nothing that points toward a bust with JD, whatsoever.

He's a 30-year-old who's about to get a big-ass contract. That, in itself, points toward a bust.

Seriously, I'm inclined to think the more relevant question is, what are the signs that point toward a non-bust?

 

[Adrian's Dome]

Seriously, I'm inclined to think the more relevant question is, what are the signs that point toward a non-bust?

You mean besides the fact he's an easy top-10 hitter, he fills our biggest need, and it's looking like his contract is coming in stupidly below what everyone thought it'd cost?

 

[Moviegoer]

You mean besides the fact he's an easy top-10 hitter, he fills our biggest need, and it's looking like his contract is coming in stupidly below what everyone thought it'd cost?

Yeah, besides all that.
I think this thread could use a break before everybody wraps their brain into irrevocable knots because this is taking so long to resolve, one way or another.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

You mean besides the fact he's an easy top-10 hitter, he fills our biggest need, and it's looking like his contract is coming in stupidly below what everyone thought it'd cost?

Josh Hamilton was an easy top-10 hitter. Pablo fllled our biggest need. OK, I don't have an obvious counter to the last one. But "stupidly below what everyone thought it'd cost," in this case, is still plenty high enough to become a ghastly albatross faster than you can say "surgery".

Am I saying don't sign JDM? Of course not. I'm saying let's not talk as if there's any specific reason to feel confident that this signing won't go south as far and as fast as previous ones. We're basically reduced to Mick Shrimpton logic: the law of averages says JDM will survive.

 

[sezwho]

Josh Hamilton was an easy top-10 hitter. Pablo fllled our biggest need. OK, I don't have an obvious counter to the last one...snip... I'm saying let's not talk as if there's any specific reason to feel confident that this signing won't go south as far and as fast as previous ones.

Sure there is always risk a long term deal will blow up, but I do think there should be (much?) more confidence of JDM's contract not going as far south as the Pablo and Hamilton ones. I recall warning signs for both, but perhaps I'm second guessing?

 

[Marbleheader]

The Red Sox are paying $32M to players this year that will not contribute to the team (Pablo, Rusney, Craig and Manny). $31M next year. That's more than any other player not named Trout or Kershaw and represents 70% of the Phillies entire payroll. Those bad contracts are killers and you have to be damn sure the player is worth the risk. Martinez gives me pause, especially if he's not too keen on coming here in the first place. I'd prefer the Red Sox sit tight and open the checkbook next year.

 

[moondog80]

The Red Sox are paying $32M to players this year that will not contribute to the team (Pablo, Rusney, Craig and Manny). $31M next year. That's more than any other player not named Trout or Kershaw and represents 70% of the Phillies entire payroll. Those bad contracts are killers and you have to be damn sure the player is worth the risk. Martinez gives me pause, especially if he's not too keen on coming here in the first place. I'd prefer the Red Sox sit tight and open the checkbook next year.

If you wait to be sure a player is worth the risk, you will never spend big money on players and never take advantage of high revenues.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

The Red Sox are paying $32M to players this year that will not contribute to the team (Pablo, Rusney, Craig and Manny). $31M next year. That's more than any other player not named Trout or Kershaw and represents 70% of the Phillies entire payroll. Those bad contracts are killers and you have to be damn sure the player is worth the risk. Martinez gives me pause, especially if he's not too keen on coming here in the first place. I'd prefer the Red Sox sit tight and open the checkbook next year.

$50m+ if they sign JDM and you include another 0 war season from Hanley.

 

[shaggydog2000]

The Red Sox are paying $32M to players this year that will not contribute to the team (Pablo, Rusney, Craig and Manny). $31M next year. That's more than any other player not named Trout or Kershaw and represents 70% of the Phillies entire payroll. Those bad contracts are killers and you have to be damn sure the player is worth the risk. Martinez gives me pause, especially if he's not too keen on coming here in the first place. I'd prefer the Red Sox sit tight and open the checkbook next year.

"Damn sure" seems like a really high bar. We've seen failures of some very highly regarded free agents, and every player has some red flags when they make it to free agency, number one being age.

 

[Marbleheader]

Very few players are worth the type of money Martinez is looking for. Of course, there's always risk. When I think of the top players in the game, guys I would give long-term, big money contracts to, JD just doesn't make the cut for me. Trout, Kershaw, Correa, Bryant, Harper, Goldschmidt, Machado? Yes.

 

[bosockboy]

Very few players are worth the type of money Martinez is looking for. Of course, there's always risk. When I think of the top players in the game, guys I would give long-term, big money contracts to, JD just doesn't make the cut for me. Trout, Kershaw, Correa, Bryant, Harper, Goldschmidt, Machado? Yes.

5/125 isn’t really considered that though. Those you mentioned are 300 million types.

 

[Marbleheader]

We don't have any indication he'll sign for that number, that's why I said the money he's looking for. Reports are that he was looking for $30M per for 7 years. He's not going to get it, but I'd rather the Sox spend that kind of dough on next year's class.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I feel like sarcasm meters have gone haywire the last page or so, but maybe I need to check my own.

Of course there’s plenty of signs that point to disaster. I don’t understand how this guy became some kind of guarantee to some...

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Josh Hamilton was an easy top-10 hitter. Pablo fllled our biggest need. OK, I don't have an obvious counter to the last one. But "stupidly below what everyone thought it'd cost," in this case, is still plenty high enough to become a ghastly albatross faster than you can say "surgery".

Am I saying don't sign JDM? Of course not. I'm saying let's not talk as if there's any specific reason to feel confident that this signing won't go south as far and as fast as previous ones. We're basically reduced to Mick Shrimpton logic: the law of averages says JDM will survive.

With Pablo, he filled a need but they spent $95 million and did so knowing that he was likely the 5th or 6th best 3rd baseman in the division. Just because they had a vacancy at 3B that offseason didn't mean that he was the right guy to fill it.

 

[In my lifetime]

5/125 isn’t really considered that though. Those you mentioned are 300 million types.

This is where I think people have been influenced by the Boras' ask of 7/210MM. It makes it appear that 5/125MM is a bargain.
Thus far in the history of baseball there has been exactly one 300MM contract in MLB history --- Stanton. There have only been twelve 200MM contracts signed.

JDM according to Fangraphs has been estimated to be worth 5/110 (crowdsource estimate) - 7/160 or 6/150 (Edwards more optimistic aging decline). So AAV in the range of 22MM - 25MM for a 5 - 7 yr contract.

The reported RS offer falls in that range (exactly the crowd source estimate). It is certainly far from being an insulting "I am going to sit out the year offer" and of course, if there is more $ out there from some other team JDM is free to take it to the bank. Now add the fact that 2 typically free spending teams are out of the market to get under LT this year - LA and MFY.

Pretending 5/110 has no risk for the team is foolish especially with past history of both the RS free agents and the list of the top 20 free agent contracts. The 7/210 MM ask was not realistic. 5/110 to 5/125 or 6/120 - 6/130. Every long contract has risk and limits future contracts.

 

[Average Reds]

Literally every MLB team now has an analytics department to give them a good sense of what a player is worth from a financial perspective. Given that, why are people providing crowdsourced estimates of a player's worth as if it is meaningful information?

Edit: Not trying to be snarky and I generally agree with your post. But this is not the first time I've seen someone referencing "crowdsourcing" as a way of determining a player's worth, and given the information void between the teams/agents on one side and the "crowd" I just can't see how that's a useful metric.

 

[nvalvo]

You mean besides the fact he's an easy top-10 hitter, he fills our biggest need, and it's looking like his contract is coming in stupidly below what everyone thought it'd cost?

MLBTR said 5/$130, Dave Cameron said $156, and the people of fangraphs crowdsourced it at $110. Nobody except Boras thought he was getting $210m. The range of the realistic estimates was $110-160, and we're in that ballpark.

edit: I guess In My Lifetime covered some of this before me. Apologies.

 

[In my lifetime]

Literally every MLB team now has an analytics department to give them a good sense of what a player is worth from a financial perspective. Given that, why are people providing crowdsourced estimates of a player's worth as if it is meaningful information?

Edit: Not trying to be snarky and I generally agree with your post. But this is not the first time I've seen someone referencing "crowdsourcing" as a way of determining a player's worth, and given the information void between the teams/agents on one side and the "crowd" I just can't see how that's a useful metric.

I agree re: crowdsourcing, which is why I gave Edwards estimate based on WAR estimates from Fangraphs. And of course, that is just rough as well. The point is just providing a rough framework for a range of salary expectation that was somewhat reasonable. Here is the link for the January article:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-martinezs-potential-for-falling-off-a-cliff/

 

[Pozo the Clown]

Apparently, DD has offered JDM a contract with an AAV of $22M before. Per the Detroit Free Press, during the 2015-16 offseason, the Tigers offered Martinez a four-year, $88M extension which he turned down in hopes of a much larger FA payday. Since then, JDM has raked and hired Boras in hopes of maximizing said payday. If the reports of the Sox offer being for 5 years at $22M per are accurate, it's understandable how JDM could feel less than overjoyed at the series of events. To be clear, I'm not saying that he should turn his nose up at 5/$110 or that he's worth more, just speculating on why there may be some truth to the reports that he's disgruntled.

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2017/12/18/detroit-tigers-j-d-martinez/962878001/

 

[RedOctober3829]

Apparently, DD has offered JDM a contract with an AAV of $22M before. Per the Detroit Free Press, during the 2015-16 offseason, the Tigers offered Martinez a four-year, $88M extension which he turned down in hopes of a much larger FA payday. Since then, JDM has raked and hired Boras in hopes of maximizing said payday. If the reports of the Sox offer being for 5 years at $22M per are accurate, it's understandable how JDM could feel less than overjoyed at the series of events. To be clear, I'm not saying that he should turn his nose up at 5/$110 or that he's worth more, just speculating on why there may be some truth to the reports that he's disgruntled.

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2017/12/18/detroit-tigers-j-d-martinez/962878001/

He can be as disgruntled as he wants, but the market dictates what he's worth. He can have all the delusions he wants about $30 million/year, but if no one is going to pay him that kind of money than he has to accept that.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

He can be as disgruntled as he wants, but the market dictates what he's worth. He can have all the delusions he wants about $30 million/year, but if no one is going to pay him that kind of money than he has to accept that.

Perhaps the Sox should give JDM Jody Reed's phone #.

http://articles.latimes.com/1994-03-13/sports/sp-33669_1_jody-reed

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Just got a notification from the MLB app to an article claiming the Red Sox are now showing interest in Logan Morrison. Can’t find it outside of the app just yet, so no link. Here’s an excerpt:

NBC Sports Boston reported on Friday that the Red Sox had reached out to Morrison's representatives, but his path to Boston has some obstacles. Martinez remains the Red Sox's primary focus as they try to bridge the gap in contract negotiations, and Boston also re-signed another left-handed first baseman in Mitch Moreland earlier this offseason. Still, Morrison is an intriguing alternative should a Martinez deal fall through, and he could split time with Moreland and Hanley Ramirez at the designated hitter spot.

I’m not very high on LoMo, so I hope this is just an attempt to light a fire under Boras’s ass.

 

[chawson]

Just got a notification from the MLB app to an article claiming the Red Sox are now showing interest in Logan Morrison. Can’t find it outside of the app just yet, so no link. Here’s an excerpt:

I’m not very high on LoMo, so I hope this is just an attempt to light a fire under Boras’s ass.

That report came out yesterday, and prompted some light LoMo talk. It seems most notable in how bad a bluff it is—Duda would seem much more plausible. LoMo had a gaudy HR total last year inflated by a big May and June, but reverted back to his career norms. He's also highly susceptible to the shift, and we already have a guy like that in Moreland. He's also a noted idiot on social media, where he's taken heat for tweeting ignorant commentary about Native Americans, for example. It'd be an awful move. (Not that you're arguing for it.)

The Darvish signing should trigger things quick. Pitchers and catchers report in 72 hours.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

I don't see how LoMo or Duda or any 1B-type works. They're not going to carry three guys who can only play 1B.

JDM makes sense because he can play the OF. It's more likely to me (but not likely) that they'd sign a guy like Chris Young rather than Morrison.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I don't see how LoMo or Duda or any 1B-type works. They're not going to carry three guys who can only play 1B.

I guess you could go out and get the second half of a Moreland or Hanley platoon, but you don’t spend $10-20M/yr on that guy. And I don’t think Hanley will be content to take the hyena’s share of PAs in a split with Moreland or anyone else.

Votto’s previous statements about staying with the Reds aside, I wonder what it would take to land him. I don’t think the Reds are desperate to move him by any measure, but they may be open to the idea. If a deal can be worked out, I’m fairly certain Votto could be convinced, either by getting a chance to win, or by throwing him a bone regarding something in his contract (adding an opt-out, extra year, salary escalator, etc)... Freeman is also an interesting option. Maybe we just don’t have the pieces for either, but I’m surprised there’s not more noise around either player, especially since both teams seem to be going nowhere for a long time.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

With Pablo, he filled a need but they spent $95 million and did so knowing that he was likely the 5th or 6th best 3rd baseman in the division. Just because they had a vacancy at 3B that offseason didn't mean that he was the right guy to fill it.

Wait, what? On the date Sandoval was signed, here were the presumptive 3Bs for AL East teams for 2015:

Orioles: Manny Machado
Rays: Evan Longoria
Yankees: Martin Prado
Blue Jays: Brett Lawrie

Remember, Machado hadn't broken out yet at this point--he was coming off a 111 wRC+ year with 12 home runs in 354 PA. So while he was recognized as an enormous talent, and there was good reason to expect that he would be a better player than Sandoval very soon, he hadn't shown this to be true quite yet.

Longoria was coming off a poor year, for him (105 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR), and there was legitimate concern about whether we were looking at early decline. I think the smart money would have been on him reversing the trend and continuing to be a better player than Sandoval, but this wasn't a given.

Headley was, for reasons that many of us recognized as invalid at the time, considered a much less valuable asset than Sandoval. And anyway, the Yankees hadn't re-signed him yet at the point of the Sandoval signing, so he doesn't really count. The best 3B under their control at that point, AFAICT, was Prado, who was coming off a decent year but who would have been preferred to Sandoval, at that moment, by absolutely no one.

And of course, the Blue Jays were still penciling in Lawrie until they traded for Donaldson three days after the Sandoval signing.

I'm not actually sure how your bolded point is even relevant--what matters isn't whether the guy you're thinking of signing is better than his counterparts on your division rivals, it's whether he's the best guy available, and better than the guy you have. But even if it were relevant, it's false. I would argue that at the moment we signed Sandoval, there was not a single 3B under the control of an AL East club who most people would have described as clearly, inarguably better than Panda.

 

[MikeM]

DD is showing surprisingly impressive patience. He's playing this well.

As long as not actually ending up with JDM on your team and then claiming a "we did try" principle win over not budging off our offer all winter is going to be considered an acceptable end game result. If that's the case then yeah, great job so far based on the surrounding speculation.

I'm ultimately going to be fine with a decision not to sign JDM (even if I'll obviously still be pretty agitated we didn't do better upside'wise then Moreland). But for those of you that do want him, should a potential difference between 5/$110 and at least trying to find some middle ground with them at 5/$125-$140m really be that make or break there? I mean I totally get throwing down the gauntlet on not going over the 5 year barrier, but if you are already willing to go 5 anyway then it seems potentially silly to get too caught up in trying squeeze down the per/year cost as low as possible. Especially when signing JDM at even the initial offer is basically writing us in as over cap spenders for the next 2 years, and we risk the possibility that taking an extreme hardball approach too far here essentially ends up helping Boras convince JDM to take a lesser opt out deal out of Arizona.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

As long as not actually ending up with JDM on your team and then claiming a "we did try" principle win over not budging off our offer all winter is going to be considered an acceptable end game result. If that's the case then yeah, great job so far based on the surrounding speculation.

I'm ultimately going to be fine with a decision not to sign JDM (even if I'll obviously still be pretty agitated we didn't do better upside'wise then Moreland). But for those of you that do want him, should a potential difference between 5/$110 and at least trying to find some middle ground with them at 5/$125-$140m really be that make or break there? I mean I totally get throwing down the gauntlet on not going over the 5 year barrier, but if you are already willing to go 5 anyway then it seems potentially silly to get too caught up in trying squeeze down the per/year cost as low as possible. Especially when signing JDM at even the initial offer is basically writing us in as over cap spenders for the next 2 years, and we risk the possibility that taking an extreme hardball approach too far here essentially ends up helping Boras convince JDM to take a lesser opt out deal out of Arizona.

And you know that the Sox haven't budged off of the initial offer all winter because of what, other than the surrounding speculation?

 

[MikeM]

And you know that the Sox haven't budged off of the initial offer all winter because of what, other than the surrounding speculation?

Well that pretty much sums up what has been speculated to this point, whether it's the $110m or $125m, and what you seemed to be commenting on there in saying that he was playing this well.

Unless you know something I don't, of course.

 

[JimBoSox9]

You know what they say... $15 million here, $15 million there, sooner or later it adds up to real money, but why parse digits when I'm trying to make a macro point that may or may not rise to a basic standard of relevance?

 

[JimBoSox9]

WAIT A SECOND

 

[JimBoSox9]

I actually know why.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Wait, what? On the date Sandoval was signed, here were the presumptive 3Bs for AL East teams for 2015:

Orioles: Manny Machado
Rays: Evan Longoria
Yankees: Martin Prado
Blue Jays: Brett Lawrie

Remember, Machado hadn't broken out yet at this point--he was coming off a 111 wRC+ year with 12 home runs in 354 PA. So while he was recognized as an enormous talent, and there was good reason to expect that he would be a better player than Sandoval very soon, he hadn't shown this to be true quite yet.

Longoria was coming off a poor year, for him (105 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR), and there was legitimate concern about whether we were looking at early decline. I think the smart money would have been on him reversing the trend and continuing to be a better player than Sandoval, but this wasn't a given.

Headley was, for reasons that many of us recognized as invalid at the time, considered a much less valuable asset than Sandoval. And anyway, the Yankees hadn't re-signed him yet at the point of the Sandoval signing, so he doesn't really count. The best 3B under their control at that point, AFAICT, was Prado, who was coming off a decent year but who would have been preferred to Sandoval, at that moment, by absolutely no one.

And of course, the Blue Jays were still penciling in Lawrie until they traded for Donaldson three days after the Sandoval signing.

I'm not actually sure how your bolded point is even relevant--what matters isn't whether the guy you're thinking of signing is better than his counterparts on your division rivals, it's whether he's the best guy available, and better than the guy you have. But even if it were relevant, it's false. I would argue that at the moment we signed Sandoval, there was not a single 3B under the control of an AL East club who most people would have described as clearly, inarguably better than Panda.

You could have started with how he’d be the 6th best 3Bman in a 5 team division; beyond all the starters which backup did he have him ranked behind?

 

[Rasputin]

As long as not actually ending up with JDM on your team and then claiming a "we did try" principle win over not budging off our offer all winter is going to be considered an acceptable end game result. If that's the case then yeah, great job so far based on the surrounding speculation.

I'm ultimately going to be fine with a decision not to sign JDM (even if I'll obviously still be pretty agitated we didn't do better upside'wise then Moreland). But for those of you that do want him, should a potential difference between 5/$110 and at least trying to find some middle ground with them at 5/$125-$140m really be that make or break there? I mean I totally get throwing down the gauntlet on not going over the 5 year barrier, but if you are already willing to go 5 anyway then it seems potentially silly to get too caught up in trying squeeze down the per/year cost as low as possible. Especially when signing JDM at even the initial offer is basically writing us in as over cap spenders for the next 2 years, and we risk the possibility that taking an extreme hardball approach too far here essentially ends up helping Boras convince JDM to take a lesser opt out deal out of Arizona.

I'm going to be quite irked if JDM signs elsewhere. Who I'll be irked at is going to depend on the details.

But...we can't really spend much more on him than $25 million per. And frankly, if we don't sign him I'd just as soon get a lefty reliever and have at it.

We won 93 games last year with almost literally every offensive players having a sub par year and Price only pitching half a season. With a little luck on the health front, and a good season from Devers, we can compete with anyone.

 

[Average Reds]

I agree re: crowdsourcing, which is why I gave Edwards estimate based on WAR estimates from Fangraphs. And of course, that is just rough as well. The point is just providing a rough framework for a range of salary expectation that was somewhat reasonable. Here is the link for the January article:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-martinezs-potential-for-falling-off-a-cliff/

That's fair. Thanks for the straightforward answer. (Note: I did try to dial back the grouchiness of my original post with an edit.)

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Votto’s previous statements about staying with the Reds aside, I wonder what it would take to land him. I don’t think the Reds are desperate to move him by any measure, but they may be open to the idea. If a deal can be worked out, I’m fairly certain Votto could be convinced, either by getting a chance to win, or by throwing him a bone regarding something in his contract (adding an opt-out, extra year, salary escalator, etc)... Freeman is also an interesting option. Maybe we just don’t have the pieces for either, but I’m surprised there’s not more noise around either player, especially since both teams seem to be going nowhere for a long time.

Votto isn't going anywhere, and there's no reason to even consider it. Freeman also isn't likely to go anywhere; Braves management has been pretty clear and consistent in saying they want him to be a Brave for life and that he's expected to be part of the next contending Braves team (which could happen sooner than most people think). I know, everyone's got a price, but in this case it's probably Benintendi and Devers (not either/or but both). I would believe that Goldschmidt was available before Freeman.

I do agree more broadly, though, that the real alternative to Martinez is the mid-season trade market. Abreu will probably be out there, and I assume DD has a good idea of what it will take to get him at this point. Khris Davis, too, I would think would be out there, but who knows what Oakland is doing at any given time.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

You could have started with how he’d be the 6th best 3Bman in a 5 team division; beyond all the starters which backup did he have him ranked behind?

Hanley Ramirez was already on the Sox when Panda was signed. ZIPs projected Hanley to have a .351 wOBA compared with Panda’s .335.

So, it’s conceivable Sandoval could have been the 5th best 3B in the AL East, depending on whether one thinks Ramirez could have handled playing the hot corner defensively, and on how one projected value to Machado and Prado.

That being said, I imagine that the poster simply forgot Toronto hadn’t acquired Donaldson yet.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Hanley was expressly signed to play LF and had one partial season at the position. Citing him in the 3B ranking would be like citing Mookie as a 2B.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Hanley was expressly signed to play LF and had one partial season at the position. Citing him in the 3B ranking would be like citing Mookie as a 2B.

Well yeah, Hanley was signed to play LF, but that’s because Cherington also had a deal pending to play Panda at 3B.

Which makes this a chicken-and-egg problem.

But it’s true that there were concerns raised about paying Panda star-level money, when his history suggested he was merely an above-average player. It’s just that mostly they were ignored at the time, as people salivated over the new toys.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Not debating that there were concerns over Pablo’s signing. Some were more optimistic than others but everyone had reservations to some degree. What I am debating is they ever considered signing Hanley with the intent of moving him to 3B. Coupled with the point you made about Donaldson and the existence of Prado,I have no earthly clue how one determines he was the sixth best 3B in the division, absent hindsight.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Wait, what? On the date Sandoval was signed, here were the presumptive 3Bs for AL East teams for 2015:

Orioles: Manny Machado
Rays: Evan Longoria
Yankees: Martin Prado
Blue Jays: Brett Lawrie

Remember, Machado hadn't broken out yet at this point--he was coming off a 111 wRC+ year with 12 home runs in 354 PA. So while he was recognized as an enormous talent, and there was good reason to expect that he would be a better player than Sandoval very soon, he hadn't shown this to be true quite yet.

Longoria was coming off a poor year, for him (105 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR), and there was legitimate concern about whether we were looking at early decline. I think the smart money would have been on him reversing the trend and continuing to be a better player than Sandoval, but this wasn't a given.

Headley was, for reasons that many of us recognized as invalid at the time, considered a much less valuable asset than Sandoval. And anyway, the Yankees hadn't re-signed him yet at the point of the Sandoval signing, so he doesn't really count. The best 3B under their control at that point, AFAICT, was Prado, who was coming off a decent year but who would have been preferred to Sandoval, at that moment, by absolutely no one.

And of course, the Blue Jays were still penciling in Lawrie until they traded for Donaldson three days after the Sandoval signing.

I'm not actually sure how your bolded point is even relevant--what matters isn't whether the guy you're thinking of signing is better than his counterparts on your division rivals, it's whether he's the best guy available, and better than the guy you have. But even if it were relevant, it's false. I would argue that at the moment we signed Sandoval, there was not a single 3B under the control of an AL East club who most people would have described as clearly, inarguably better than Panda.

My timeline might have been off, but with Donaldson going to the Blue Jays and the Yanks having both A.Rod and Headley he was far from the top of the division. You're re-writing history if you thought otherwise and you're doing so with a very odd position.

Sandoval was an unmitigated disaster and there as never an indication that he would approach that contract. At the time I wanted Donaldson and would have gladly given up Bogaerts to get him.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

Comparing JDM to Sandoval is insane.

Sandoval was already on a downswing. We knew this. His conditioning was an issue. We knew this. He wasn't an elite player to begin with, we knew this. That contract was a reach from the beginning, we knew this.

JDM is an elite hitter and we want him for exactly nothing more than that. Any 5-year contract involves a degree of risk, but that degree of risk is a lot different when comparing two players where one was already in decline and one isn't, and one has skills more susceptible to rapid decline than the other (fielding with conditioning issues, plus a no-walk, high-contact, free-swinging mentality at the plate as a switch hitter with a huge platoon split.)

Will JDM decline with age? Most definitely. Are the chances he completely falls apart the same as the chances Sandoval did? Not even in the same stratosphere.

For what it's worth, in terms of addressing 3B back when Sandoval was signed, trading for Donaldson was the correct answer.

 

[soxhop411]

I feel like the FA ball gets rolling tomorrow and peaks Thursday

 

[RedOctober3829]

Scott Boras met with #DBacks owner Ken Kendrick on J.D. Martinez within past week, sources tell The Athletic. Two sides fond of each other, but still real question on whether they can find common ground on deal. Boras, Kendrick also met earlier this off-season, per @JonHeyman.

 

[moondog80]

I feel like the FA ball gets rolling tomorrow and peaks Thursday

I think everyone has been thinking this is the week every Sunday night since mid December.

 

[soxhop411]

Boras soooooo wants another team to jump into the bidding so he can get JD the 200millilon contract he so foolishly promised him he would get.

It’s not going to happen

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

That's a bold statement

 

[pinkunicornsox]

I don't see the Dbacks topping the Sox offer. Then again if Martinez is intent on spiting the Sox for some reason then maybe he agrees to a lesser contract to go to Arizona.