Joe Kelly will stay in rotation
- Thread starter soxhop411
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Oh good, the Reds and Phillies probably want to see what he can do...
Seriously though, I'm pulling for Kelly and this should help get the staff back on track rest wise.
Seriously though, I'm pulling for Kelly and this should help get the staff back on track rest wise.
Flashback to '06, starting one minor leaguer after another. Not because of injuries this time, though.
I'm good with this decision. The season is toast, Kelly is a young asset, might as well see if the stuff he worked on in AAA can translate back to the big leagues.
I'm going to be irked if this means less Johnson in upcoming games. I'd rather have Wright stick around in the bullpen as a long guy that makes sausages out of Craig Breslow than see Johnson go back down.
Play the kids.
That can include Kelly. It must include Johnson. I'd really like it to include Owens.
Play the kids.
That can include Kelly. It must include Johnson. I'd really like it to include Owens.
What adjustments led to his better results with the Pawsox? Anything specific we should be looking for on Wednesday?
j44thor said:
Kelly on Wednesday, Miley on Thursday. I think the Angels series finishing on Monday has the reporters all screwed up.
I don't think there's a whole lot to read into the choice of Kelly to make the start. Someone who hasn't started a game yet in the second half had to get a start to get/keep the rotation on schedule after the doubleheader. It was really down to Kelly or Masterson.
The more interesting question is who starts next Monday when the 5th spot comes up again. Will it be Wright or Kelly? I assume if Kelly comes through tomorrow's game decently, it will be him. If not, who knows?
j44thor said:
Not true. Since he was called up as the 26th man in the double header, the 10-day window doesn't apply. He only has to stay down 5 days, which means he'd be eligible to return for Monday if they want him to.
Snoop Soxy Dogg said:
Or 2 decent starts generates enough flyer interest where we see him get flipped at the deadline for a decent return that's a better fit for this team going forward.
Even without Kelly we do seem to have enough project type options for the bottom half of the 2016 rotation atm.
I was at McCoy for his 7 inning, 1 ER on 5 hits and walk with 4Ks start. He looked good, but not dominant against AAA hitters.
The adjustments were probably in the form of AAA hitters instead of the MLB hitters that are, you know, better. I suspect we will see more of the same 'ol tantalizing Kelly.MuzzyField said:
edit: or what j44thor said
Well, what is the goal the rest of the way?. Getting the best pick for 2016. Kelly helps to that end. Also, there are several more years of team control. Maybe he figures something out along the way that helps him next year.
I really would like to see how his stuff plays out of the bullpen. Maybe throwing 100mph in small doses will make up for some of his shortcomings.
This is one of the first white flags. Giving him a few starts to see if he can be part of 2016 or not.
Edes was saying on Twitter that they would have liked to keep Johnson up, but they felt like the bullpen was short so they sent him down to keep Ramirez around.Rudy Pemberton said:
Noe Ramirez. Definitely need him on hand.
MyDaughterLovesTomGordon said:
I take that as they had no faith in Kelly going more than 5IP so they needed warm bodies.
Glad to hear they felt they couldn't trust him not to tax the bullpen and at the same time moved him back into the rotation after he couldn't go beyond 5 innings.
rembrat said:
The theory is that Kelly, with his great stuff they keep talking about would perform much better in small doses in 70 IP than he does as a starter at 200 IP.
Then again, they kept telling us that Matt Clement had great stuff all the time too...
I think if you're trying to get the 2nd pick in the draft, the latter. No harm now in letting Kelly try to show he belongs in next year's rotation. The only downside is losing, which I'm now convinced this F.O. is not worried about (regardless of what they say in public). The higher the pick, the better. Imagine getting a Dansby Swanson-Alex Bregman-Brendan Rogers-type talent next year to add to our upcoming stable of prospects.moondog80 said:
BosRedSox5 said:
I'll admit that I'm not sure what relevance Matt Clement has to Joe Kelly. Matt Clement was as advertised for the Red Sox -- he made an All Star team based on his performance before getting lasered in the head with a line drive. His subsequent decline in performance was attributed to his being gunshy or whatever, both on this board and in public, before it came out that he was pitching with a shredded shoulder. You know, the opposite of being gunshy.
Joe Kelly is a pitcher with tantalizing stuff whose control of his fastball and secondary pitches comes and goes. He is not, on the other hand, someone with a shredded shoulder and the imprint of a baseball on his forehead. He's having a bad year in terms of results, but despite all that, there is cause for optimism: a rise in his K rate, and a horrible LOB% that's bound to correct some (although some of it certainly has to do with the aforementioned control coming and going).
Last night he threw some bad pitches, and they got crushed; on the other hand, he only walked one guy, struck out six, and made some people look foolish with a nasty two-seamer inside. It's not a popular thing to do, but we have to wait to cast judgment on guys like Kelly and accept that we'll have to let him pitch and see what happens. Our being in last place affords us that luxury, and the upside is too good not to. We've been over a lot of this territory before: he's 'young' in the sense that he's relatively new to pitching; it's not surprising that we see him sometimes lose his control a little.
Fishy1 said:
For the 76th billionth time, Matt Clement was already well on his way back to being Matt Clement for about a month before he got whacked.
Kelly needs to throw a lot, it's true, but he's better off doing it in AAA or even AA given his lack of a foundation.
I'm sorry, yes: Clement did have a horrendous month before he got hit in the head. Forgive the omission.Harry Hooper said:
But in my defense, I only said his decline was blamed on his being gunshy. I didn’t agree with that statement. On the other hand, if you're saying his horrendous month leading up to the line drive was what we should have expected from Clement - that is, that was the REAL Clement - I'd have to disagree: Clement had just had three above average years in a row for the Cubs, and there was plenty of cause for optimism.
Anyways, my contention was just that comparing Kelly and Clement wasn't useful.
As for the idea that Kelly needs to be pitching in AA, the only precedent I can think of for demoting a pitcher like that is Roy Halladay. He went all the way back to A+, but he had to put up a 10.64 ERA over half a season in the majors for the Blue Jays to do that. He essentially had to be rebuilt.
I'm not sure the situation is anywhere near dire enough for the Sox to being doing that with Kelly. He's taking his lumps, but I'd rather he was facing big league hitters.
I'm curious: what exactly is the argument for him going down to AA at this point? That he'll have more room to make mistakes? That he'll be able to focus on one thing for a start and get away with it? That it won't hurt the big league team's chances? I'm genuinely open to the idea, I'd just like to hear it from someone who's advocating for it.
Per our discussion on whether Joe Kelly would be a good late-inning reliever. Here are his 2015 stats both for his first inning of work and his first time through the order:
First Inning
66 ab, 19 h, 9 1b, 4 2b, 3 3b, 3 hr, 14 r, 6 bb, 1 hbp, 12 k, .288 avg, .356 obp, .576 slg, .932 ops
- 26 of the 73 batters faced (35.6%) in his first inning of work this season have reached base by hit, walk, or HBP
- 14 of the 73 batters faced (19.2%) in his first inning of work have scored-
- Only two of the 16 first innings he has pitched have been "clean" (no base runners)
- Only half of the 16 first innings he has pitched have been scoreless
First Time Through the Order
127 ab, 40 h, 25 1b, 6 2b, 4 3b, 5 hr, 24 r, 13 bb, 1 hbp, 22 k, .315 avg, .383 obp, .543 slg, .926 ops
- 54 of the 141 batters faced (38.3%) the first time through the order have reached base by hit, walk, or HBP
- 24 of the 141 batters faced (17.0%) the first time through the order have scored
- Only four of the 16 first-time-through-the-orders has he made it through without giving up a run
- None of his 16 first-time-through-the-orders has been "clean" (no base runners)
I don't know if these numbers suggest he would be a good late-inning reliever.
First Inning
66 ab, 19 h, 9 1b, 4 2b, 3 3b, 3 hr, 14 r, 6 bb, 1 hbp, 12 k, .288 avg, .356 obp, .576 slg, .932 ops
- 26 of the 73 batters faced (35.6%) in his first inning of work this season have reached base by hit, walk, or HBP
- 14 of the 73 batters faced (19.2%) in his first inning of work have scored-
- Only two of the 16 first innings he has pitched have been "clean" (no base runners)
- Only half of the 16 first innings he has pitched have been scoreless
First Time Through the Order
127 ab, 40 h, 25 1b, 6 2b, 4 3b, 5 hr, 24 r, 13 bb, 1 hbp, 22 k, .315 avg, .383 obp, .543 slg, .926 ops
- 54 of the 141 batters faced (38.3%) the first time through the order have reached base by hit, walk, or HBP
- 24 of the 141 batters faced (17.0%) the first time through the order have scored
- Only four of the 16 first-time-through-the-orders has he made it through without giving up a run
- None of his 16 first-time-through-the-orders has been "clean" (no base runners)
I don't know if these numbers suggest he would be a good late-inning reliever.
Good question, and I'm not sure of the answer. I think many do become quality relievers, but my suspicion (and that's all it is) is that those failed starters can get through the first time ok, but get hammered later. Or maybe they have decent stuff (say, 93 mph fastball) as a starter, but when they only have to throw one inning they can throw 96-97, so they become different pitchers.
Kelly already throws 99. I don't think he will be throwing 103 if he becomes a reliever. And he already has problems getting pounded in his first inning of work (.932 ops against is not encouraging). So while it is intuitive that he should be better as a reliever, I don't really see how, given his 2015 performance.
That said, he has been better in past years, so I really don't understand what's happened to him this year.
Kelly already throws 99. I don't think he will be throwing 103 if he becomes a reliever. And he already has problems getting pounded in his first inning of work (.932 ops against is not encouraging). So while it is intuitive that he should be better as a reliever, I don't really see how, given his 2015 performance.
That said, he has been better in past years, so I really don't understand what's happened to him this year.
I don't really know how relevant the whole "1st time through" idea is. For example, in Wade Davis' final year as a starter, he had an .876 OPS against the 1st time through the lineup, and a 5.62 ERA in the 1st inning. Both of those are worse than the overall numbers of .822 OPS against and 5.32 ERA.
EDIT - another starter-to-pen convert in KC (Hochevar):
2012, as starter:
1st time through lineup: .820 OPS against
1st inning: 7.59 ERA
2012, overall:
.818 OPS against, 5.73 ERA
So both those guys at least anecdotally suggest there's not much of a tie between success/failure as a starter in early innings and future success as a reliever.
EDIT - another starter-to-pen convert in KC (Hochevar):
2012, as starter:
1st time through lineup: .820 OPS against
1st inning: 7.59 ERA
2012, overall:
.818 OPS against, 5.73 ERA
So both those guys at least anecdotally suggest there's not much of a tie between success/failure as a starter in early innings and future success as a reliever.
moondog80 said:
In a lot of cases where a starter goes to the pen and succeeds, part of the reason is an ability to ramp up their velocity a bit so that their stuff plays up. There isn't any evidence to suggest that Kelly is going to throw harder when he's in the pen, so he's basically going to be the same guy there that he is in the rotation. Inconsistent command that leads to meltdowns that roll over him very quickly. I don't think first time through the order numbers tell us much in general because pitchers will often have very different approaches when starting versus relieving, but without an uptick in velocity, I'm not seeing a reason Kelly should be expected to thrive in the pen. Or even a reason to be hopeful he could get there with a significantly more confidence than him figuring it out in the rotation.
If the season is lost, let him keep starting and hope he can figure it out. Maybe it's as simple as getting him to ease off the gas pedal a bit. Maybe it's not fixable. The reality is probably in the middle somewhere, but I don't see a lot of value in moving him tot he pen at this stage. If they can't justify doing that with him at the major league level, maybe they can get him down to Pawtucket for the rest of the year. It looks like he was optioned in 2012, 2014 and this year, so he shouldn't need to pass through waivers.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
The other two things pitchers can do when they move to the pen is 1) dump their least successful pitches, and 2) only work on their mechanics out of the stretch. Both of these things helped Andrew Miller tremendously with his command and control, more so than ramping up velocity. I don't know to what extent this helps Kelly, but it helps explain why you can't use the first inning and the fist time through the order alternating between a windup and starter's full complement of pitches as predictive of what will happen.
I mean, there is some track record to look at, as Kelly has almost a full season's worth of reliever innings from his Cardinals days - 52 innings out of the pen, to be exact. His peripherals as a reliever are vastly better than when he was a starter, even when comparing starting vs. relieving in the same years he did both roles (2012-2013).
jscola85 said:
Even as a starter, his past numbers certainly indicated he'd be MUCH better than he's been this year.
As a starter:
2015: 335 ab, .281/.345/.455/.800
2014: 360 ab, .244/.332/.361/.691
2013: 332 ab, .247/.320/.337/.657
2012: 353 ab, .275/.338/.419/.757
So he was much better in 2013 and 2014 as a starter than he's been in 2015. He was even significantly better in 2012 than he is now.
Kelly's actual stats as a reliever, coming in 30 appearances.
In many respects, it's not much different:
Starter - Reliever
4.02 - 3.25 ERA
.738 - .726 OPS
1.399 - 1.348 WHIP
.293 - .333 BABIP
However, he does show a marked improvement in K/BB, going from 1.71 to a 3.5 and his K/9 goes from 6 to 8.4 (which still isn't spectacular, but is in the realm of very good).
I think he could be a good 7th inning guy, or just simply a dude you bring out of the pen to get a K in a big spot. He can't be worse than Craig Breslow.
In many respects, it's not much different:
Starter - Reliever
4.02 - 3.25 ERA
.738 - .726 OPS
1.399 - 1.348 WHIP
.293 - .333 BABIP
However, he does show a marked improvement in K/BB, going from 1.71 to a 3.5 and his K/9 goes from 6 to 8.4 (which still isn't spectacular, but is in the realm of very good).
I think he could be a good 7th inning guy, or just simply a dude you bring out of the pen to get a K in a big spot. He can't be worse than Craig Breslow.
With only 52 IP, I wouldn't worry a great deal about the OPS/WHIP splits, as it's mainly driven by a much higher BABIP as a reliever - .293 as a starter vs. .333 as a reliever. His HR rate is a bit higher as a reliever, but the rest of his peripherals suggest something is working better in short stints for Kelly vs. as a starter.
"Joe Kelly will stay in the rotation"
Why? I think everybody would agree he has a fastball. In fact, at 98-99mph, I'd say it's a heater but without command of his secondary they started to sit on it. Now they're killing it and Kelly was an enigma. Now he just a riddle. Joe loves his fastball. He loves it so much he over relies on it and that's his problem but the question is will it be his downfall. That's the riddle
If the WS went to a 7th game he was the one I least wanted to see and this is based on what I saw. He was changing speeds on the fastball to great effect and he was setting it up with pinpoint sliders and nasty curves. So how could he have such control of his secondary in a WS and totally lose it with the Red Sox? To me, it really doesn't matter anymore. Maybe someday he'll get command of 5 pitches but maybe he won't and either way I've seen enough to know I'm not willing to wait to find out. Every time he throws fastball preceded by fastball they rack it and to me it's simple. He's a closer. Riddle solved
The best closers in baseball are getting it done using 2 pitches exclusively. Fastball/slider or fastball offset by another off speed pitch and pick your poison but they're doing it with 2 pitches. Ask Miller or Melancon or Betances or Capp or Kimbrel and the Sox sent Kelly to AAA to get command of 4 pitches but it ain't gonna happen. He already has command of the fastball and all I want him to do is thrown that slider until he can put through a hole at 60' with his eyes closed. Then I want to see him close with a 96-99mph fastball and command of the slider. As an aside, there's ample evidence with starter to closer conversions that velocity will increase. Ask Wade Davis & Will Smith and I can only imagine what Kelly's fastball would look like at 100mph plus
Why? I think everybody would agree he has a fastball. In fact, at 98-99mph, I'd say it's a heater but without command of his secondary they started to sit on it. Now they're killing it and Kelly was an enigma. Now he just a riddle. Joe loves his fastball. He loves it so much he over relies on it and that's his problem but the question is will it be his downfall. That's the riddle
If the WS went to a 7th game he was the one I least wanted to see and this is based on what I saw. He was changing speeds on the fastball to great effect and he was setting it up with pinpoint sliders and nasty curves. So how could he have such control of his secondary in a WS and totally lose it with the Red Sox? To me, it really doesn't matter anymore. Maybe someday he'll get command of 5 pitches but maybe he won't and either way I've seen enough to know I'm not willing to wait to find out. Every time he throws fastball preceded by fastball they rack it and to me it's simple. He's a closer. Riddle solved
The best closers in baseball are getting it done using 2 pitches exclusively. Fastball/slider or fastball offset by another off speed pitch and pick your poison but they're doing it with 2 pitches. Ask Miller or Melancon or Betances or Capp or Kimbrel and the Sox sent Kelly to AAA to get command of 4 pitches but it ain't gonna happen. He already has command of the fastball and all I want him to do is thrown that slider until he can put through a hole at 60' with his eyes closed. Then I want to see him close with a 96-99mph fastball and command of the slider. As an aside, there's ample evidence with starter to closer conversions that velocity will increase. Ask Wade Davis & Will Smith and I can only imagine what Kelly's fastball would look like at 100mph plus
I don't see any reason to move him to the bullpen now. Let him work on stuff in the rotation, the team isn't making the playoffs anyway. His value if he can put it together as a starter is much higher. If nothing changes the rest of the year you can always make him a reliever starting fresh in Spring Training. It isn't like he's blocking anyone else we want to get MLB starts.