Could post this here or the general thread, but how do we feel about 38 minutes from the Jays and 36 from Marcus? About right for games they play in, but expect them to take some games off for load management?
Joe Mazzulla, come on down.
- Thread starter chilidawg
- Start date
Last year on opening night Jaylen & Smart played 46 minutes each & Tatum & Timelord played 45 minutes each (double OT loss to Knicks).**
Stroll in the park this year.
But yeah, that's a pretty average workload against a tough team in a fairly close game with no b2b.
Last year Tatum played more than the 38:38 he did this game 21 times in the regular season.
Jaylen only actually played more than his 38:34 7 times last season, though.
**The rest of the rotation that night is kind of interesting to me:
Schröder 32
Grant 31
Langford 22
Nesmith 11
PP 11
Too much for them to average, but this was a national TV game, the season opener, against a top contender, and the planned rotations got screwed up right away by foul trouble.
Game 1/Conf rival JAYs minutes were fine
Horford (albeit with foul issues) playing 23-mins while keeping Embiid somewhat tame is the bigger story. If Vonleh can come in and be a BIG that bodies the other teams Center, set screens on O we're in good shape
I know your question has been answered, and so don't feel as if I'm piling on.
But this was the first meaningful game that Tatum played on the parquet floor since a 13 point, 3 rebound, 6-18 effort against the Warriors. Difficult losses in the playoffs are things that can carry over in a young player's psyche, so getting the win here mattered more than it would, say, in January. And wins against a likely rival for playoff positioning matter.
They have 2 nights off before a B2B in Florida and a 3-in-4 stretch overall on the road. Which means picking up this win will go a long way to ensuring the season gets off to a decent start. And I would expect to see some load/minutes management over the weekend.
I don't feel like anyone is piling on. I don't really have an opinion one way or the other on the 38 minutes. I think it feels about right to be honest. It's more beneficial to end up with the same amount of minutes played in a season by averaging more minutes in the games you play and taking X amount of games off vs. playing every game but with fewer minutes, right?
E.g., averaging 34 minutes a game x 82 games = 2,788 minutes
Or you could play ~73 games at 38 minutes a game and end up with the same minutes, but you get 9 entire games off
I think it's a lot less static than that. Players should play as few minutes as they can while their team wins as often as possible.
For example, Tatum played 31 minutes or less 14 times last season. The Celtics were 12-2 in those games & the average margin of victory for the winning team in those games was 29.8.
The more of those easy games you can get, the less load management days off a player would need (Celtics were 2-4 when Tatum didn't play).
The minutes are going to be easier on Tatum and Brown this year, at least at the offensive end, because they don’t have to do all the water carrying. Plus in a game with a double digit lead, the offensive possessions in the last half of the fourth quarter were walk it up possessions where not a lot of energy was being expended.
The Celtics had a chance to blow this game open at the end of the third-quarter, but their bench group let Maxey go off. If they handled those minutes a little better, there could have been more opportunity for rest for their stars in the fourth quarter.
The Celtics had a chance to blow this game open at the end of the third-quarter, but their bench group let Maxey go off. If they handled those minutes a little better, there could have been more opportunity for rest for their stars in the fourth quarter.
That's the thing, though, right? They don't play in a vacuum, so if they play Tatum 40 minutes 1 night & 30 another night because that's what the game calls for, that's better than playing him 35 minutes every single night.
If literally the only 2 options are 38 minutes every game for 73 games or 34 minutes per game for 82, then I suppose it's a close hypothetical.
The point I was trying, & probably failing, to make is that for the most part game flow should dictate these things, within a certain capped range in the regular season.
If Tatum is playing a bunch of 40 minute games to try to eke out close wins, give him a day off. If Tatum is playing a bunch of 30 minute games because of blowouts, don't give him a day off.
I think these decisions should be made based on the flow of the season & not predetermination.
I think it makes more sense to think about total minutes than minutes per game.
Last year, Tatum played 35.9 minutes per game in 76 games, for a career high 2731 regular season minutes. (He then averaged 41 minutes in 24 payoff games for another 983).
I'd like to see them cut the 2,731 down a bit. But that happens over the course of a season, not in any particular game.
Last year, Tatum played 35.9 minutes per game in 76 games, for a career high 2731 regular season minutes. (He then averaged 41 minutes in 24 payoff games for another 983).
I'd like to see them cut the 2,731 down a bit. But that happens over the course of a season, not in any particular game.
I do think it was important to give the bench a good stretch on the floor in the first game though. Sort of like "hey you guys are important too". As a whole they looked pretty jittery but they checked the box.
If Mazzula can keep this team in the top 3 of the east by season's end, I think there's a very good chance he's coach of the year. Hard to remember a time where a coach was put into such a tough situation just days before training camp, and as a rookie and the youngest coach in the league, no less. COTY is primarily about narrative, and his will be hard to beat.
In other words, I'm putting some money down on this. I have no idea what the odds are.
In other words, I'm putting some money down on this. I have no idea what the odds are.
I agree that the emphasis on rest / recovery as a key part of physical training has been a really interesting area in the last couple of decades. Not sure where the science of the thing has landed, though, with respect to taking time periods fully off versus going hard and light at times.
Maybe @Marciano490 has some insight to this?
The market seems to be in agreement with you. It's doubtful that the pre-season or just the opener changed the odds that much, and so based on just narrative at least one sportsbook has Mazzulla as the 3rd favorite at +1200 - only behind Jenkins at +1000 and Finch at +1000.
I'd be surprised if either of Tatum/Brown takes a game off for load management this year until the last couple weeks of the season, especially Jaylen.
He's got a big financial interest in making all-NBA this season. I would guess he'll be playing as much as possible to increase his odds of getting there.
With blowouts and back to backs mixed in, they'll probably end up around the same minutes per game as last year. A close game on full rest, they may get 38. A blowout on the front end of a back to back, they may get 30.
Why the Celtics picked Joe Mazzulla to lead them out of a crisis (bostonglobe.com)
A good read. Pretty intense guy. Seems to be able to stay intense without making everyone else tense.
A good read. Pretty intense guy. Seems to be able to stay intense without making everyone else tense.
Thanks for sharing that article. Its pretty clear why Brad likes this guy. He seems wired for this sort of thing.
Real shades of the Belichick career path by the Cs brain trust here. Find guys willing to be married to the job and pathologically obsessed with using every waking minute to seek every edge. Make them prove their dedication by paying them peanuts at first. Then once dues are paid, promote from within, don't even interview outside if you already know you have the guy.
Mazzulla sounds a lot like Brad Stevens in several respects. Being crushed by loyalty to his college recruits, to the point of turning down NBA overtures initially. Mastery of relationships as well as tactics.
For something completely different, Mazzulla shares his love of the Hot Weiner from Olneyville NY System. I wish I had known about these when I was in the NE area thirty years ago.
https://985thesportshub.com/listicle/celtics-joe-mazzulla-shares-love-for-iconic-providence-restaurant/
https://985thesportshub.com/listicle/celtics-joe-mazzulla-shares-love-for-iconic-providence-restaurant/
Rough game for him last night. He refuses to use time outs - he keeps losing them instead of getting value for them.
Jaylen didn't know not to advance the ball before calling time out on the last rebound. No idea if this was part of the plan and there was an audible, but it was not a great look either way.
The rotation, especially the big rotation, was a mess. Al played 40 minutes and he was clearly gassed in the 4th even before OT. Kornet played like 3 minutes. That's just not sustainable. I know Kornet and Vonleh are not NBA players, but killing Al with minutes is going to cause consequences later in the season. And where was Blake? Al's clearly a 25-30 minute a night guy for him to be truly effective at this point. Gotta figure something else out.
The final play was somewhat questionable - Tatum as the decoy isn't ideal but it is defensible.
Here's hoping he gets better like Ime did last year. Just have to pray the minutes issue doesn't catch up with the team like it did then.
Jaylen didn't know not to advance the ball before calling time out on the last rebound. No idea if this was part of the plan and there was an audible, but it was not a great look either way.
The rotation, especially the big rotation, was a mess. Al played 40 minutes and he was clearly gassed in the 4th even before OT. Kornet played like 3 minutes. That's just not sustainable. I know Kornet and Vonleh are not NBA players, but killing Al with minutes is going to cause consequences later in the season. And where was Blake? Al's clearly a 25-30 minute a night guy for him to be truly effective at this point. Gotta figure something else out.
The final play was somewhat questionable - Tatum as the decoy isn't ideal but it is defensible.
Here's hoping he gets better like Ime did last year. Just have to pray the minutes issue doesn't catch up with the team like it did then.
Agree with everything, but I have no issue with the last play. There was no hope in getting anything at the rim with Allen and Mobley there, so with two seconds left a contested fade away was pretty much the only option. I trust Jaylen just as much if not more than I trust Tatum to hit those, and he just left it on the front rim.
The ATO play at the end of regulation was excellent also. And having 2 timeouts at the end proved fortuitous. Gotta give credit where it's due. And hav
I wanted him to use his challenge at several points during the second half. There was a block/charge call on White in the 4Q I think where White might've been outside the restricted area (it was close). The Tatum non-foul on the dunk to close regulation, if won, could have won the game right then and there. We never really got slow-mo replays to prove whether it would've been a worthwhile challenge or not, but I was shouting for it from my basement at any rate, therefore it would've been the right move.
Too early to tell much about Joe I think. And I thought both end of 4th/OT plays worked out great.
Not too early to say the big man rotation without Rob is a mess (not Joe’s fault).
Al is a 20-25 min guy at this point aside from maybe a do or die playoff game. The rest of the options are not NBA players.
Not too early to say the big man rotation without Rob is a mess (not Joe’s fault).
Al is a 20-25 min guy at this point aside from maybe a do or die playoff game. The rest of the options are not NBA players.
Really? I did not see it as a rough game for JM at all. He drew up two great last possession plays. He had guys rotating pretty well. It's not his fault they are lacking another big. If not using a challenge in the 1Q is what we're going to complain about, then I think Joey Mazz is doing ok.
It is -- but I also think they were getting so out hustled on the boards that Jaylen may have just kind of put getting the rebound first and foremost in his mind. Regardless, I'm not sure that really had any impact on the outcome of the game given that they had another timeout anyway to advance the ball and got a good shot off at the end (ie, they didn't need that extra timeout).
As others have said, the team needs another big until Rob hopefully gets healthy.
Yeah that’s a player brain fart. We got two good looks at end of regulation and OT. I didn’t see what was rough about his night. If playing Horford big minutes with a night off today to give us the best chance to win is the biggest criticism that’s a pretty good night for an NBA coach.
I truly do not understand the reluctance to call time out. He called only one timeout during the first 3 quarters and two in the fourth. I don't buy that as anything close to optimal.
The ATO play to Tatum was brillant. The last ATO play, to Brown, much less so. They set Tatum up as the decoy again, but why have him just stand there? Why not have him make the move like the previous play to get defenders to commit to him? Also, Brown got the ball with 2.3 seconds left and I'm not sure he did the best job in getting the best shot for himself. Though it was a good enough shot that he could have hit it.
Clearly, the team wasn't fully on the same page about what to do leading into that last timeout, with Brown trying to run and Mazzulla trying to call time.
I am concerned about Mazzulla relying too heavily on his top players instead of developing his bench. Jayson and Jaylen are 6 and 7 in minutes per game - I'd rather they not be among the league leaders. Horford broke the 40 minute mark only once all of last season and Mazzulla has already had him do it twice. I think if that continues it is going to be a problem.
Again, they were getting creamed on the boards there. My guess is that Jaylen just kind of spaced and focused on getting the rebound first and foremost. I don't think we need to extrapolate this into "The Celtics aren't on the same page as their coach" -- or "Jaylen isn't a smart player" (not that you're saying it but someone here undoubtedly will). Sometimes in the heat of a game, guys get tunnel vision. Even the best players.
Regarding the bolded, JT was positioned about 5-10 feet in the backcourt from the tip circle. His moving around wouldn't have gotten any defenders to commit to him other than his primary defender. Putting him anywhere else on the court would have just clogged the area where they wanted JB to operate. I don't disagree that JB might have been able to get a better shot, but it was good enough, and I think it was an excellent play, given that they took advantage of the plus match up that JB had with Wade defending. I'm betting that if someone else had gone out to cover JT, they may have had the option to run a play for him similar to the one they ran at the end of regulation, to take advantage of that match up.
I think we need to keep in mind Mazzulla still has "interim" attached to his coaching position. He has pressure to win games and the best way to win games is to play your best players more than your bench guys. I agree the minutes are somewhat concerning but he's still fighting for a full-time job.
Also, lets not forget, a week before camp started he was still preping to be the assistant. He didn't have the whole summer to get ready for HC duties.
He also has been dealt a similar roster hand to Ime last year, who had the same issues. Roster depth up front with TL and Gallinari out is pretty bad.
I really hope that the organization manages to navigate the areas where potentially there are incentives that don’t necessarily align; this is sorta like the inverse or cousin or whatever of situations where the organization wants to tank, but the players and coach are playing hard for their next contract.
Of course, winning a ton of basketball games right about now would do a great to resolve any such tensions.
The NBA regular season is loooong. It's generally not great to get caught up in specific game optimization things like timeout usage and rotations. If your team needs the coach to get that stuff exactly right, it probably wasn't a contender to start, so no one cares. It's also not all costs and zero benefits: there are likely some benefits to having your team play through stuff as opposed to micromanaging.
Player workload is the opposite of that: it matters a lot, and probably compounds in effect when the playoffs roll around. Al's minutes are completely on the front office and ownership: we knew after the spring that TL health would be a factor, maybe forever, and they rolled the team into camp with Al and a bunch of bums.
They need something closer to a $10M-type center than a replacement-level one, given age and health for Al and TL, and I'm not sure where that guy comes from.
Player workload is the opposite of that: it matters a lot, and probably compounds in effect when the playoffs roll around. Al's minutes are completely on the front office and ownership: we knew after the spring that TL health would be a factor, maybe forever, and they rolled the team into camp with Al and a bunch of bums.
They need something closer to a $10M-type center than a replacement-level one, given age and health for Al and TL, and I'm not sure where that guy comes from.
This came up in the offseason when one poster (for the life of me I forget who it was) was adamant that backup bigs grow on trees. I’ve always promoted that this is one of the most difficult positions to fill as the player pool of 7-foot tall men in this world who can compete in an NBA game is extremely small. We are seeing an example of that right now.
As far as minutes go, especially Horford, I’m not too concerned about an OT game with days off both on the front and backend. Are we supposed to pull starters in an OT game? What if it goes 2OT? 3? He’s played 25 min or less in 3 of our last 6 games.
Serious question. Does anyone here really believe that the 2022-2023 Celtics aren't closely monitoring player rotation minutes? Is the thought that they never look at this stuff and just play it by feel during the game?
My assumption is that their analytics team provides detailed info and something like a prescribed minutes limit for every single available player that the coaching staff can override as needed. My guess is that Mazzulla and most other NBA coaches aren't allowed to run players into the ground unchecked like many of their predecessors before them.
That said, I don't know how they look at this stuff and its possible they just let the coaches wing it. I'd love to learn more about how they look at minutes on the Cs and across the league.
My assumption is that their analytics team provides detailed info and something like a prescribed minutes limit for every single available player that the coaching staff can override as needed. My guess is that Mazzulla and most other NBA coaches aren't allowed to run players into the ground unchecked like many of their predecessors before them.
That said, I don't know how they look at this stuff and its possible they just let the coaches wing it. I'd love to learn more about how they look at minutes on the Cs and across the league.
I'm sure they monitor it closely.
However, all ranges have an upper and lower bound, and the big man situation is likely to keep forcing Al towards the upper part of his until they can upgrade.
Yeah this is silly. We’ve had one B2B so far and Horford didn’t play. We’ve played 7 games and he’s played 25 min or fewer in 4 of them. We go to OT in one game and this board loses its mind lol.
Disagree. I think the pressure he has is to win a championship, not mere games. Unless the Celtics arelosing in ways directly attirutable to Mazzulla's coaching, Celtics management will have his back for a good long while.