I think this one is pretty close. And when you factor in the way team friendly extension that Conley agreed to it gets even more debatable.
Jrue the Damaja
- Thread starter Devizier
- Start date
April 1st is the 6-month anniversary of the Holiday trade.
Extension guesses?
I'd guess 2yrs/$60MM
Extension guesses?
I'd guess 2yrs/$60MM
I don’t think there is a chance he takes less than 4 years. This will be his final big contract. 4/$140m is my guess.
3 year extension following him opting into his player option, I assume (covering through 2028, when he's 37). If the Celtics don't someone out there will certainly give him something big. Even at his age he's still a fit on any contender with cap space (Philly is the team that immediately comes to mind, but Orlando, OKC, maybe even the Spurs could be in play). Other than the omnipresent injury risk, this is about all that's left when it comes to regular season intrigue.
I was just looking at Mike Conley which I thought was an interesting comp from above.
At a similar age (coming off an All-Star season) Conley opted for a discounted 3 yrs/$68MM extension with a really good Utah team (after making $34MM on the last yr of his Memphis deal).
https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/basketball/ohio-state-basketball-former-guard-mike-conley-agrees-to-three-year-contract-extension-utah-jazz
I think there is little chance Jrue does that, but curious to see what Jrue, Brad, & Glushon sketched out 6 months ago. I'd be shocked if Holiday went to FA
Then Brad moves on to his Summer work: JT Supermax, White extension, Hauser extension talks, & finally Kornet/Tillman/Queta decisions.
At a similar age (coming off an All-Star season) Conley opted for a discounted 3 yrs/$68MM extension with a really good Utah team (after making $34MM on the last yr of his Memphis deal).
https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/basketball/ohio-state-basketball-former-guard-mike-conley-agrees-to-three-year-contract-extension-utah-jazz
I think there is little chance Jrue does that, but curious to see what Jrue, Brad, & Glushon sketched out 6 months ago. I'd be shocked if Holiday went to FA
Then Brad moves on to his Summer work: JT Supermax, White extension, Hauser extension talks, & finally Kornet/Tillman/Queta decisions.
A bunch of teams with a bunch of cap space who could use someone just like Jrue have that space next year to offer him a max. PHI, ORL, UTA, DET in particular
What kind of tax is Wyc looking at if we do something like this with Jrue, Max out Tatum, keep Jaylen/KP, and re-sign White?
Good problem to have as a fan, but is that type of payroll realistic? I'd love to keep Jrue as a 4th or 5th man as well, but without doing the math seems like this could get pretty astronomical.
I guess where I get stuck is that
- it's hard for me to see Brad trading that much for him without an extension worked out
- it's hard for me to see an extension having been worked out at that high a number
Are we going to see a no trade clause here? The Holidays really really seem to value stability, more than the typical NBA family.
The general consensus seems to be that Brad/Wyc never make the deal without an extension framework being discussed. I never felt that way and could see Jrue leaving after this year unless the pocketbooks are opened.
The growth of Derrick increases this possibility imo bc that payroll would be outrageous. You can replace 75% of Jrue’s impact “on this roster” at 25% of the cost which is what I still feel will happen…..but if we are to keep him, the guy is going to get paid unless him and his wife agree to leave many tens of millions on the table. That doesn’t seem smart or likely to happen.
And you need at least 4 years with your current team to qualify for a no trade clause. They are really rare for a reason, and not just because teams don't like to be lose leverage.
From the little I’ve heard Jrue talk, I can’t see that he’d go somewhere without a chance of winning, even for much more money.
I’m sure Morey is doing back channels to him though.
I don't think there was an extension negotiated before the trade. Brad traded that much for him because he's good.
Jrue should fire Jason Glushon if he didn't exchange extension details with the Celtics at the time of the deal
That is an agent's #1 responsibility.
Plus Brad isn't cobbling together that many assets without knowing Jrue's price.
The Holiday's value stability and I don't see them playing the FA market for every last shekel.
Lauren expressed her excitement over their family’s next chapter in Boston, though she maintained that the business aspect of the trades is something she wishes could be handled differently.
“Imagine a world where we didn’t hide behind the business of things, where we didn’t treat one another like commodities, instead we saw each other as valuable pieces of a human community meant to serve another in a mosaic of ways,” she wrote.
https://www.si.com/nba/2023/10/05/jrue-holiday-wife-lauren-powerful-message-husband-being-traded
KP took a discount to extend as did Horford, it's not exactly uncommon to do that to ring chase.
That is an agent's #1 responsibility.
Plus Brad isn't cobbling together that many assets without knowing Jrue's price.
The Holiday's value stability and I don't see them playing the FA market for every last shekel.
Lauren expressed her excitement over their family’s next chapter in Boston, though she maintained that the business aspect of the trades is something she wishes could be handled differently.
“Imagine a world where we didn’t hide behind the business of things, where we didn’t treat one another like commodities, instead we saw each other as valuable pieces of a human community meant to serve another in a mosaic of ways,” she wrote.
https://www.si.com/nba/2023/10/05/jrue-holiday-wife-lauren-powerful-message-husband-being-traded
KP took a discount to extend as did Horford, it's not exactly uncommon to do that to ring chase.
this seems about right to me, but a little steep. I think Jrue ends up at about 26-28M for 3 years
yeah….I think this extension was agreed to.
it was rumored that Boston was one of the teams that Holiday wanted to go to. Obviously The Celtics really wanted him.
If you look at the context around this deal, it doesn’t make any sense for there to have been no contract extension talks.
IMO, this team is going to stay the same next year, only way it changes is if they flame out ECF game 7
View: https://twitter.com/Timi_093/status/1771324858527355103?s=20
The fact that he didn't immediately exit the game makes me hopeful that it's not too serious, but he'll absolutely get more rest than anyone else going forward.
The fact that he didn't immediately exit the game makes me hopeful that it's not too serious, but he'll absolutely get more rest than anyone else going forward.
Is Jrue subject to fines (he made All-Star team last year) if he misses a televised game?
I'm not sure what the rules/fine are in regards to "load mgmt" but maybe Jrue is playing up the dead arm injury to give himself cover.
I expect KP/Jaylen to be out for the CHI game while Jrue/Horford/Tatum return.
I'm not sure what the rules/fine are in regards to "load mgmt" but maybe Jrue is playing up the dead arm injury to give himself cover.
I expect KP/Jaylen to be out for the CHI game while Jrue/Horford/Tatum return.
Yes he is, he's a "star" for purposes of the resting policy - if they want to sit him for a national TV game, he has to have a bona fide injury. (and if they want to sit him for a non-national game, it can only be one of him / Tatum / Brown per game). So I read it the same way you do: it's a fig leaf. If his arm really was charlie-horsed that badly, he wouldn't have continued playing in the game. I suspect it's not Jrue giving himself cover, though, so much as the team deciding he should take a break, and Jrue being willing to go along with the ruse. Players always want to play. Maybe it does hurt, a little, but isn't actually affecting his game.
Maybe they keep him out of the CHI game too, though, and just give him a few more days off. We've got ironman D-White out there keeping things humming, and it's gonna be a long 6-game road trip.
Disagree here. Adrenaline of in game action is real. I can remember rolling an ankle, getting a charlie horse, taking a huge fall and banging an elbow, etc and after the initial "fuck that hurt" continue to play on. Only to wake up the next day and feeling like I got hit by a truck.
Yeah that's fair, has happened to me too.
Doesn't change my bet, though, that it's not something that would keep Holiday out in normal circumstances. Like, Porzingis came back from his 5 game absence last week and told Abby "if it was the playoffs, I would've played", which is as close as they'll get to admitting it was NBD, just precautionary / minding the odometer.
We have minded KP's odometer a whole lot this season, but other than Horford on back to backs, not really load managed the other starters. Clearly, that is now changing, and good on Brad for not Thibs-ing.
I'm more concerned than y'all about a shoulder injury to the shooting arm. hoping it's nothing. maybe it's PTSD from when I followed baseball and pitchers got the dreaded shoulder inflammation diagnosis.
Definitely worth monitoring, but I’d try to separate that Pavlovian response to “shoulder” in a basketball player. It’s an entirely different motion, and even a nagging sore shoulder isn’t automatically a big deal for an NBA guy.
Instability from a dislocation and labral tears that go with that definitely can be a big deal. But otherwise, lots of shoulder stuff can generally be managed more successfully in the NBA than for a pitcher.
Yeah this is where I am. I'm not worried about him missing games (or being any less effective defensively or running an offense), but Holiday's dirty little secret is that he's been an awful shooter in the playoffs. His playoff 3 point percentage over the last decade is .306, on 317 attempts in 52 games (his regular season 3p% over that same stretch is .363). There are several possible reasons for that, but it seems like the quickest way to continue that trend is an injury to his shooting arm.
that's an easy answer
locked-up by Smart 
all kidding aside, Malcolm's injured elbow turned a 44% 3pt shooter (30/69 in ATL/PHI 43%) into a complete mess against Miami (3/18)
People sometimes forget how grindy Milwaukee's offense was in the playoffs. Jrue carried a lot of the load, and wasn't able to do nearly as much relocation and spot-up shooting.
I too would like him to not have a shoulder issue, but aside from that I don't see any inherent reason the struggles would continue. His offensive role is very different now, and he gets way more of the corner 3s he loves in this system.
As a side note, this is why I just can't get there in putting Giannis up with other offensive superstars like Jokic or SGA, or even maybe Tatum. His schtick doesn't produce as good offensive ecosystems as you'd hope.
Not trying to disagree with everything you post, I promise
I think there is a difference between saying it is "no big deal" and "I would play if it was the playoffs". There is a lot of space between those two statements.
along those lines, Jrue has halved his PU3s and doubled his C&S3s as a Celtic (vs his MIL days) while massively lowering his USG% (from 25 to 16.3)
Jrue C&S3 is 47% vs 41% on PU3s this season
I have a buddy who works for the Bucks, and he believes Holiday's poor postseason shooting was largely the result of the huge defensive load Jrue had to carry in Milwaukee. My friend says Jrue would wear down in the playoffs and his shooting would suffer.
Videos of Jrue working out before CHI. Does not look incapacitated.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C43-7Z7oJ7u/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=4131fa15-1ebf-44ef-aacf-eded131a1219
and
View: https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1771674434316730534?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1771674434316730534%7Ctwgr%5E1d0ec17776656011365fc91b91af7c96182509fb%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcsportsboston.com%2Fnba%2Fboston-celtics%2Fjrue-holiday-injury-update-celtics%2F597759%2F%3Fpartner%3Dyahoo
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C43-7Z7oJ7u/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=4131fa15-1ebf-44ef-aacf-eded131a1219
and
View: https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1771674434316730534?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1771674434316730534%7Ctwgr%5E1d0ec17776656011365fc91b91af7c96182509fb%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcsportsboston.com%2Fnba%2Fboston-celtics%2Fjrue-holiday-injury-update-celtics%2F597759%2F%3Fpartner%3Dyahoo
Sounds kinda fine, especially in conjunction with the "working out and seems ok" videos? Not too concerned.
Yeah I think that's a positive sign. The remaining regular season drama for Holiday is hopefully just about his contract extension, and whether or not he plays enough games to qualify for all-defense (needs to play in 4 of Boston's 11 remaining games).
I would also think that moving down the offensive load chain from 2nd (after Giannis, esp when Middleton was out) to 3rd, 4th or 5th with the C's has to change the defensive calculus against him. For instance, against Miami last year, he was likely covered frequently by Butler (with Bam on the GF). This year, Miami would likely have Herro on Jrue.
I'll leave it to the doctors here to speculate more about the actual injury, but he has about 5 weeks to get healthy. I'll cautiously say I wouldn't be overly worried about him missing round 1 of the playoffs, but once we get into May need all hands on deck. Don't really care about anything else including all-defense, which he might not (probably won't?) make anyways. Get healthy and do everything the training staff can recommend to limit re-injury risk.
Listening to Abbie's report on Jrue last night, I was a little discouraged. Talking about him having to manage the pain for the rest of the season. It didn't sound like there was a lot of optimism he was going to fully heal for the playoffs.
Jrue gives more info on his shoulder here: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/03/25/sports/celtics-holiday-shoulder/.
It's kind of weird what he's saying - his shoulder is fine; it's not a dead arm; it's not a nerve thing; he can move it and everything; but it still "bugs [him] a little bit" and it's about "minimizing the pain." More specifically, Jrue explained that "the AC joint has been causing the discomfort and the pain could linger despite the improvement."
Lots of way to interpret that but hopefully it won't impact him in the playoffs.
