Koji's Split Personality

radsoxfan · Apr 25, 2015

Koji's not using it more because he has cracked the code to relief domination. He's using it more because his FB sucks (86 mph and no command). Obviously the splitter a great pitch, but if teams know its coming 90% of the time, it's going to eventually get crushed. The splitter relies on at least the threat of a well placed fastball somewhere in the back of a hitter's mind. It's not as much of a gimmick pitch as a knuckleball that can survive purely on its own. Teams will catch on, it won't be pretty.

I mentioned this in the game thread, but I hope he has an injury. The alternative is that he is just old, and thats more depressing/less correctable.

radsoxfan · Apr 25, 2015

aron7awol said:
It remains to be seen if the league can adjust. He throws a few different flavors of it, so they don't know if he's going to throw it for a strike, down out of the zone, or with arm-side run, and the fastball becomes an off-speed pitch a la Wakefield. As long as he can play with it and put it where he wants, I'm optimistic.

I really hope you are right. Unfortunately, I doubt it. I'm hoping for a minor injury or mechanical issue that's forcing the brief splitter obsession.

Hopefully he can get back to at least 40% well located 87-88 mph fastballs to keep hitters honest. If Koji continues the purely splitter repertoire, he'll be out as closer by the end of the year (likely sooner).

Adrian's Dome · Apr 25, 2015

radsoxfan said:
but if teams know its coming 90% of the time, it's going to eventually get crushed.

Mariano says "hi."

mauidano · Apr 25, 2015

Adrian's Dome said:
Mariano says "hi."

I laughed pretty hard at this. If you got something that you have ridden with lots of success and it's working you stay on it. Father time will be his downfall not the ability to throw HIS pitch for that success.

leftfieldlegacy · Apr 25, 2015

radsoxfan said:
Koji's not using it more because he has cracked the code to relief domination. He's using it more because his FB sucks (86 mph and no command). Obviously the splitter a great pitch, but if teams know its coming 90% of the time, it's going to eventually get crushed. The splitter relies on at least the threat of a well placed fastball somewhere in the back of a hitter's mind. It's not as much of a gimmick pitch as a knuckleball that can survive purely on its own. Teams will catch on, it won't be pretty.

I mentioned this in the game thread, but I hope he has an injury. The alternative is that he is just old, and thats more depressing/less correctable.

I think the risk is not so much that the splitter gets crushed but instead that the hitters start playing the odds and guess that the splitter is coming and lay off it on a consistent basis to work the count in their favor and then sit on the fastball.

radsoxfan said:
I really hope you are right. Unfortunately, I doubt it. I'm hoping for a minor injury or mechanical issue that's forcing the brief splitter obsession.

Hopefully he can get back to at least 40% well located 87-88 mph fastballs to keep hitters honest. If Koji continues the purely splitter repertoire, he'll be out as closer by the end of the year (likely sooner).

Just asking you to speculate on what type of injury/mechanical issue would cause him to lose his fastball command / velocity but still allow such an effective splitter. I've always thought that the splitter was (biomechanically) a much more stressful pitch to throw. The only thing I can think of is that his leg strength is not yet back to normal and that is causing his FB issues.

JimBoSox9 · Apr 25, 2015

mauidano said:
I laughed pretty hard at this. If you got something that you have ridden with lots of success and it's working you stay on it. Father time will be his downfall not the ability to throw HIS pitch for that success.

There really needs to be a name for this, because it's rare as anything and fun as hell. Some very few pitches contain the right mix of speed, deception, and late break that, when spotted right, are just plain unhittable. Compared to all other pitches, it's probably more like a tipping point than it is linear. Crane ~~Kicks~~ Pitches? Sandman Pitches? If we had a forum to talk about such things I'd probably start a thread because pitchfx and statcast are about to make finding that point very interesting.

Anyways, while you're not wrong, true one-trick pony RPs are rare, and the ones that aren't relying on an overwhelming fastball are exceedingly so. What Koji has ridden to success thus far is a 1-2 combo punch, That said...

radsoxfan said:
Koji's not using it more because he has cracked the code to relief domination. He's using it more because his FB sucks (86 mph and no command). Obviously the splitter a great pitch, but if teams know its coming 90% of the time, it's going to eventually get crushed. The splitter relies on at least the threat of a well placed fastball somewhere in the back of a hitter's mind. It's not as much of a gimmick pitch as a knuckleball that can survive purely on its own. Teams will catch on, it won't be pretty.

It does seem pretty hard to believe that a splitter could hold up as a Sandman Pitch for more than a short period of time, but he does have the control to make it work. There's no way he can live up in the zone at all without a fastball; whether he can continue this run depends on living 110% at the knees.

Plympton91 · Apr 25, 2015

The MLB radio guys have been pointing out that Bartolo Colon at one point in a recent start had thrown fastballs in 51 of 57 pitches, and wasn't breaking 90. It was all variation in location keeping hitters of it.

MentalDisabldLst · Apr 25, 2015

It always annoys me when people don't realize that Mariano Rivera threw 3 different flavors of fastball: Jnai has him using the sinker as well as the cutter, the former about 10% of the time, and I swear to you that some of what's categorized as a cutter are actually ordinary 4-seamers.

No one in the modern era has ever had sustained success in MLB throwing only one pitch. Koji won't be the first.

ivanvamp · Apr 25, 2015

Adrian's Dome said:
Mariano says "hi."

Fangraphs only has this data going back to 2002, but here's Mariano's pitch selection over the years:

2002: 98.4% fastball, 1.6% slider
2003: 96.8% fastball, 3.2% slider
2004: 48.4% fastball, 3.8% slider, 47.5% cutter
2005: 44.1% fastball, 1.0% slider, 54.8% cutter
2006: 56.6% fastball, 43.4% cutter
2007: 26.7% fastball, 73.2% cutter
2008: 18.0% fastball, 82.0% cutter
2009: 7.1% fastball, 92.9% cutter
2010: 15.1% fastball, 84.9% cutter
2011: 12.7% fastball, 87.3% cutter
2012: 6.6% fastball, 93.4% cutter
2013: 10.8% fastball, 89.2% cutter

I wonder if they had trouble with determining a cutter before 2004, because he definitely threw cutters way before then. But anyway, look at the trend the last 6 years of his career. Roughly 85-90% cutters.

And total dominance.

ivanvamp · Apr 25, 2015

As long as the splitter stays down, it's going to be a tough pitch to do much with. The more he throws it, however, the greater the chances are of leaving one up. And if he leaves it up, it can get hammered.

CaptainLaddie · Apr 25, 2015

ivanvamp said:
Fangraphs only has this data going back to 2002, but here's Mariano's pitch selection over the years:

2002: 98.4% fastball, 1.6% slider
2003: 96.8% fastball, 3.2% slider
2004: 48.4% fastball, 3.8% slider, 47.5% cutter
2005: 44.1% fastball, 1.0% slider, 54.8% cutter
2006: 56.6% fastball, 43.4% cutter
2007: 26.7% fastball, 73.2% cutter
2008: 18.0% fastball, 82.0% cutter
2009: 7.1% fastball, 92.9% cutter
2010: 15.1% fastball, 84.9% cutter
2011: 12.7% fastball, 87.3% cutter
2012: 6.6% fastball, 93.4% cutter
2013: 10.8% fastball, 89.2% cutter

I wonder if they had trouble with determining a cutter before 2004, because he definitely threw cutters way before then. But anyway, look at the trend the last 6 years of his career. Roughly 85-90% cutters.

And total dominance.

There's no wondering. If you told me Rivera wasn't throwing cutters 80-90% of the time in, say, 1997 or 2000 or 2003, I'd have you committed. That these numbers say he was only throwing them 48% of the time in 2004 says to throw out anything that's pre-2008.

uncannymanny · Apr 25, 2015

The Pearce and Machado ABs last night were a microcosm of the extremes this approach yields. He let a few run over the plate belt high to Pearce and almost got taken out of the yard (Pearce was just way out in front of it). Then to Machado (and pretty much most of the other hitters that inning, but he was masterful against MM) he was just burying the split at the very bottom of the zone, getting both ugly swing and misses *and* called strikes. If he can live there with 90% of his splits I don't care who's up there and how few other pitches he throws, they have little chance.

geoduck no quahog · Apr 25, 2015

An article about the split-finger fastball with some cool references.

From what I can gather, the splitter spins much less than a fastball. It's the fastball's backward spin (as it rolls off the fingertips) that reduces its dip due to the aerodynamics of the stitches.

The splitter's rotation minimizes that spin. It "stays in the smooth spots" longer than the fastball, and therefore dips much more sharply. It's not the same as a curveball, which relies on the Magnus Effect - a spin in which the aerodynamics actually "pull" the baseball down by creating a lower pressure on the bottom of the ball. The pull apparently varies slightly with grip and pressure.

The splitter, on the other hand, can act much closer to a high speed knuckleball. It seems that various finger pressure cause it to break left or right along with the dramatic late dip. I think arm angle also has something to do with it.

So...if I'm interpreting the physics correctly...the spin of a splitter is visibly different than a fastball or curveball. I'm going to guess that the spin is unrecognizable - but that's a key assumption. Also, for a splitter to be effective, the arm angle has to mimic the pitcher's fastball.

What it boils down to is that, similar to a knuckleball, a batter may know (or guess) that a splitter is coming, but still have little chance of guessing its location as it crosses the plate. Unlike the knuckleball, it seems that the suitably talented pitcher does have control over the late break - but mostly left and right vs. up and down.

I defer to those more knowledgeable - but what it looks like to me is that a pitcher like Uehara has a fine control over his splitter, and need to throw in just enough (and only enough) fastballs to keep the possibility in the back of the hitter's mind, hopefully screwing up his timing. I guess that's what good knuckleballers also do (varying speeds) - but with substantially less control and predicitability. I think a great split fingered pitcher has the ability to throw it with a 3-ball count and have confidence it will cross the plate as a strike. Alternatively, he's messed up the hitter so badly that a lucrative fastball "screams" by before the bat can catch up. If the hitter's assuming fastball at 3 balls, the splitter will be devastating.

My take, anyway. Interested in what others have to say.

JimBoSox9 · Apr 25, 2015

geoduck no quahog said:
So...if I'm interpreting the physics correctly...the spin of a splitter is visibly different than a fastball or curveball. I'm going to guess that the spin is unrecognizable - but that's a key assumption. Also, for a splitter to be effective, the arm angle has to mimic the pitcher's fastball.

It's right, but it becomes less true if the pitch is up; the deception is strengthened greatly if the hitter only gets a good look at the top of the ball

radsoxfan · Apr 25, 2015

Mariano is an interesting comparison, but the difference with his 1 pitch (and variations) is that hitters pretty much always knew the speed he was throwing his entire career. He proved that at 90+ mph with that movement and command, it didn't matter if hitters could time his pitches perfectly, they still couldn't hit it.

Koji on the other hand (in my opinion) has relied at least in part on deception compared to his fastball and messing with the timing of hitters in addition to the great movement of the splitter. If he is going to throw 90+% splitters, that element is gone.

I get that the splitter has great movement, but even if Koji has some variations on it, it's not as unpredictable as a knuckleball. If he goes out there all season and hitters completely sit on 78 mph splitters, it's going to get ugly. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong. Alternatively, I hope that Koji gets back to a similar pitch mix to 2013 (46% fastballs) and we never find out.

radsoxfan · Apr 25, 2015

leftfieldlegacy said:
Just asking you to speculate on what type of injury/mechanical issue would cause him to lose his fastball command / velocity but still allow such an effective splitter. I've always thought that the splitter was (biomechanically) a much more stressful pitch to throw. The only thing I can think of is that his leg strength is not yet back to normal and that is causing his FB issues.

Well I don't know it's an injury/mechanical issue. He might just be getting old.

Whatever it is, I don't think it's only affecting his fastball. His splitter has lost velocity too (78.5 mph vs 81.0 mph in 2013). It's just that the splitter can still be effective at a slower speed, while he knows the fastball won't be. He's in survival mode right now.

Hopefully it's all minor early season stuff, he didn't have a full spring training after all. But like I said, if we're seeing the same velocity and pitch mix the entire year, I am not optimistic.

Darnell's Son · Apr 25, 2015

CaptainLaddie said:
There's no wondering. If you told me Rivera wasn't throwing cutters 80-90% of the time in, say, 1997 or 2000 or 2003, I'd have you committed. That these numbers say he was only throwing them 48% of the time in 2004 says to throw out anything that's pre-2008.

Well, Pitchf/x was finally installed in all parks in 2008, so that's probably why it seems most accurate starting in 2008.

Snodgrass'Muff · Apr 25, 2015

Darnell's Son said:
Well, Pitchf/x was finally installed in all parks in 2008, so that's probably why it seems most accurate starting in 2008.

Beyond that, fangraphs has some issues with pitch classifications in general, so I wouldn't be on the above data to be terribly accurate, especially going back that far.

soxhop411 · Apr 25, 2015

@brianmacp: Farrell on Koji: He probably doesnt have the finish to his fastball as weve seen.

j44thor · Apr 25, 2015

Koji looks Foulked to me. Sure he is somewhat getting by thus far but that is probably because teams are still going off last years scouting reports on him. He currently has no fastball command to go along with losing 3MPH on what was already a well below avg fastball velocity wise.

The other obvious thing worth mentioning is how long can his arm hold up throwing nothing but splitters. Seems like splitters took their toll on Tanaka last year. I just don't see this season ending well for Koji if he can't regain some form of FB.

soxhop411 · Apr 25, 2015

@JMastrodonato: Koji Uehara: Im not looking at velocity at this point or any point in my career so its no problem.

soxhop411 · Apr 25, 2015

@brianmacp: Farrell said that what Koji threw to Lough was a fastball out over the plate. That it was a splitter tells you something.

curly2 · Apr 25, 2015

I think there are two distinct issues.

1. Is Koji healthy now? If not, put him on the DL and give him rest and/or rehab to get him ready.

2. When Koji signed with the Sox, they said they basically would not use him on back-to-back days. That changed by necessity in 2013, and Koji handled it amazingly, but since then he is two years older and less healthy and the 2013 workload probably took a big toll. They need to get him back and pitching well, and once they do, they should try to avoid using him on back-to-back days whenever possible, even in save situations. If you lose a game with Tazawa, Ogando or Barnes blowing a save, it may be better in the long run if it means a healthy, effective Koji.

radsoxfan · Apr 25, 2015

FWIW, I feel exactly the same about Koji after this game as I did after yesterdays game. He got worse results (and no help from our bumbling RF), but the stuff was the same.

Looking at how effective the splitter has been and trying to extrapolate that out and think he might be even better if he throws it more often is looking at the issue from the wrong direction. Those numbers are what they are because he had a well located 88-89 fastball to go with it. Take that away, and he's going to get crushed eventually. The splitter is not Mariano's cutter.

Given the stuff yesterday, his age, and his limited spring training, I was actually surprised to see him out there tonight. Like I said, hopefully this is a minor injury/mechanical/limited spring training issue. If this is what he has all season, adios Koji. Thanks for 2013.

radsoxfan · Apr 25, 2015

aron7awol said:
All tonight really demonstrated is what we already knew. If he throws a splitter middle-middle, it will probably get hit really hard.

Even harder if they know it's coming....

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon · Apr 26, 2015

I was definitely surprised to see him on back to back nights. Might have been a bit of an experiment to see where he's at.

Maybe we should have seen Mujica, who didn't pitch last night.

mauidano · Apr 26, 2015

So he's human after all. Can't win them all. Sure there are concerns but he's our guy and he will and should get the opportunity work through this. Even Mariano Rivera blew a few. No time for panic.

Sprowl · Apr 26, 2015

This is the worst location I've ever seen from Uehara:

Ordinarily he lives just below the knees and just off the outside edge. His stuff works because he has pinpoint control. I didn't see the game, but on replay I did see the meatball he threw on pitch 6. Anybody can hit a middle-middle pitch at 77 mph with minimal movement. Worse, when he threw balls, they were way outside the zone, not close to tempting.

Can Uehara function with a 86 mph fastball? When Foulke, Okajima and Uehara were at their peaks, each was throwing 87, and touching 88. It is early in the season, when velocities tend to be low for most pitchers, so I would be surprised if he can't add a little. If he settles down at 84, however, then I'd agree that he has been Foulked.

CaptainLaddie · Apr 26, 2015

I can hit the ball into play with a middle-middle 77 mph 'fastball'.

If Koji is done, that's a scary proposition for the pitching staff.

threecy · Apr 26, 2015

Wasn't last night also the first time Koji's had to pitch in a stadium locked down due to riots outside?

AB in DC · Apr 26, 2015

threecy said:
Wasn't last night also the first time Koji's had to pitch in a stadium locked down due to riots outside?

Speaking of small sample size...

PaulinMyrBch · Apr 26, 2015

I wouldn't say he's done, but he's got some issues right now and I have zero trust when he's in the game.

The velo is down a bit (not much) from his previous year April's. Pitchfx has it closer than what I'm seeing but I'll take their word for it.
The location is not consistent, balls are easy takes.
The split isn't sinking consistently.

I think the last two have to improve dramatically and soon for him to be effective, but I think the velo will tick up a bit as the season moves along. I saw him in Greenville on his rehab assignment and wrote this at the time. I left the stadium that night thinking he was probably 4-5 more rehab appearances away from pitching for real and was surprised to see him back up and getting save opps so soon. Now its possible he wasn't working on the split the night in Greenville and the offspeed was really a changeup, but it was all coming in flat, both the FB and the offspeed.

Koji pitched the fifth. Appeared to be working on his split (it was flat). Pitched to 6 batters. 3 hits, (grounder single up middle, wall ball, liner single up middle). The outs were two roll over grounders and a K. Threw only 4 FB's by my count (87, 84, 86 ,83). Split was up in zone bw 76-79. Only one pitch appeared to have any sink. Didn't throw a fastball until the fourth batter. Third batter took him to wall likely knowing what he was getting.

Toe Nash · Apr 26, 2015

I would hope that if it is a physical issue with Koji, they would DL him to hopefully have him back to his normal self as soon as is reasonable. Now is the time to figure out what you have in the pen: Tazawa can "close," they can give Barnes innings, and Hembree and Layne are already on the 40man and have combined for 13 K, 2 BB, 4 H and 0 R in 11 IP at Pawtucket. I suspect the Sox pen by the end of the year includes Hembree, Layne and Barnes, and doesn't include Breslow and Ross...and it would make sense to figure that out.

Jnai · Apr 26, 2015

PaulinMyrBch said:
The split isn't sinking consistently.

Just curious how you came to this conclusion. Just like, watching with your eyes on the TV? Is there something particular that you look for?

PaulinMyrBch · Apr 26, 2015

Deleted, idiot related reasons

Jnai · Apr 26, 2015

Positive Vertical Movement in PITCHf/x reflects positive spin deflection; i.e., higher means less sink.

[Sorry about crashing, working out some gremlins...]

Sprowl · Apr 26, 2015

PaulinMyrBch said:
Sorry to be general. But both.

Pitchfx website was crashing earlier, so I didn't have exact numbers when I posted.

Split in the summer of 13, when he was unhittable, had vertical movement ranging average for the year of 4.59. No month was lower than 4.11.
Split in April 2015 has vertical movement of 3.17.
He's only had two months in his life where the vertical movement on the split was less than 4. April 2011, March 2012 (sss), July 2014, and April 2015. On the opposite side of the coin, he's had 8 months where it was over 6.

So I'm chalking the low average up to inconsistency as we've seen some good ones. We saw a good one last night, and then the one that left the yard. He didn't throw many of those in the summer of 2103.

Vertical movement on his pitches by month

This doesn't make sense. The numbers you are listing are vertical rise, not sink. According to your logic, the months when he has the most vertical rise are the ones when his splitter is sinking the most.

Deception and pinpoint location are key for Koji; movement, not so much.

PaulinMyrBch · Apr 26, 2015

Yea, you guys are right, my data makes the point against. I'm reading that wrong.

Edit: I'm learning not to look for stats to back up what my eyes tell me. I'm pulling chips out of the sink pot and pushing them in the location/control. Sorry for the waste of time.

HriniakPosterChild · Apr 26, 2015

CaptainLaddie said:
I can hit the ball into play with a middle-middle 77 mph 'fastball'.
If Koji is done, that's a scary proposition for the pitching staff.

If some of us are wishing for Mujica to save a 1-run game on the road, that's a scary proposition for us.

Jnai · Apr 26, 2015

PaulinMyrBch said:
Yea, you guys are right, my data makes the point against. I'm reading that wrong.

Edit: I'm learning not to look for stats to back up what my eyes tell me. I'm pulling chips out of the sink pot and pushing them in the location/control. Sorry for the waste of time.

I didn't mean to be discouraging, sorry if the Internet conveyed that.

Most good analysis or experiments start with good observation.

I would keep looking for stats, even if they disagree. Sometimes those are the most interesting times.

StupendousMan · Apr 26, 2015

Let me second what Jnai said: please don't stop looking. There are several hundred thousand combinations of factors which we can measure. We need lots of people making lots of guesses and doing lots of thinking and, _finally_, comparing their ideas to those factors, in order to make sense of it all.

PaulinMyrBch · Apr 27, 2015

I'm not, just pressed for time with a few things on my plate. The vertical and gravity numbers are interesting and later in the week I'm going to see if I can figure out if its "stuff" or just control/location.

Rice4HOF · Apr 27, 2015

And looks like Ruben Jr. Is hoping that last night's outing will be the impetus for Boston to take on Papelbon:

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/update/25164825/report-phillies-hoping-to-deal-jonathan-papelbon-to-red-sox

soxhop411 · Apr 27, 2015

Rice4HOF said:
And looks like Ruben Jr. Is hoping that last night's outing will be the impetus for Boston to take on Papelbon:

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/update/25164825/report-phillies-hoping-to-deal-jonathan-papelbon-to-red-sox

That Boston globe report is coming from none other than Carfado

Jnai · Apr 27, 2015

Brimac / Projo:
http://www.patriotledger.com/article/20150427/SPORTS/150427062/2000/NEWS

    Uehara threw splitters with nine of his 14 pitches on Saturday night at Baltimore, according to BrooksBaseball.net data. The night before, however, he threw 23 pitches, 21 of which were splitters. Three days before that, he threw 11 pitches, with 10 of them splitters.

    Last season, in contrast, Uehara threw slightly fewer splitters (47.7 percent of his pitches) than fastballs (49.7 percent). Exactly one year ago Sunday, he threw 16 fastballs and nine splitters in an outing at Toronto – a team that typically is just as aggressive against fastballs as Baltimore is.

    To Farrell, Uehara can’t start throwing his fastball with its usual velocity if he keeps throwing nothing but splitters.

    “There’s been an inordinate percentage that he’s used,’’ Farrell said.

HillysLastWalk · Apr 27, 2015

I really hadn't given much thought to bringing back Koji and letting go of Miller, as I figured the Sox wouldn't go four years on Miller so we would never have a chance to sign him. And sure, there's some early hindsight going on here, but ..

Is there a discussion anywhere about not going 4 years on Miller and instead signing a 40 year old who was getting hit towards the end of last year (and I think was injured) vs. signing a 30 year old with K rates in the 14's the past couple of years?

They both "cost" 9M/year for this year and next year, so the "risk" of signing Miller to two more of these years (18M total), was riskier than Koji maintaining his "stuff"?

Koji's Split Personality

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Mai Tais for everyone!

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will you be my friend?

bubble burster

MentalDisabldLst

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captain obvious

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captain obvious

dj paul pfieffer

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not particularly consistent

will you be my friend?

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He's a machine.

oppresses WARmongers

news aggravator

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news aggravator

news aggravator

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Mai Tais for everyone!

mikey lowell of the sandbox

dj paul pfieffer

Cosbologist

OG Football Writing

Don't touch his dog food

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is not worried about sex with goats

Don't touch his dog food

is not worried about sex with goats

mikey lowell of the sandbox

Don't touch his dog food

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is not worried about sex with goats

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Don't touch his dog food

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news aggravator

is not worried about sex with goats

Banned