Lester to Cubs: Rent Garments Thread

[ehaz]

Sandoval has nothing to do with Lester. The third base position had a negative WAR last year and it was a big hole that needed to be filled. Panda was the best one on the market and they ended up getting it done. With a better FA class for starters next year I feel comfortable with not going nuts for Lester. I would assume by year 4 he would have been in steep decline in Boston. The NL lengthens his career and that probably factored in his decision. He is out of the AL and if the Sox are planning on being contenders that's the most important thing.

 
This keeps getting repeated but why the hell would they pay $200 million to David Price/Jordan Zimmermann/Johnny Cueto if they wouldn't pony up a few million a year to keep a guy they drafted and developed?  It's not like this better FA class is going to be paid less.  At some point, if you want to add legit SP from free agency, you have to spend big bucks.  Just like you do when you need to add a young, valuable position player.  

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

I have nothing but love for Jon Lester, but I'm somewhat relieved with this result. The Cubs and Giants went far beyond what I would have wanted the Red Sox to offer. Good for him for getting paid. Time for Ben to get back to work.

 

[86spike]

Good luck Jon.

And I take a little heart in knowing that the Sox' offer was a huge $20M lighter than Theo's and Lester still gave it a long hard look. I think that should officially refute any 'he was bitter about the lowball offer' chatter.

Although it probably all did come down to how much he can't stand Hanley.

 

[moondog80]

 
This keeps getting repeated but why the hell would they pay $200 million to David Price/Jordan Zimmermann/Johnny Cueto if they wouldn't pony up a few million a year to keep a guy they drafted and developed?  It's not like this better FA class is going to be paid less.  At some point, if you want to add legit SP from free agency, you have to spend big bucks.  Just like you do when you need to add a young, valuable position player.  

They offered to pony up much more than a few mil for Lester. Lines gotta be drawn and all that.
The reason they might be inclined to offer more for the guys you mentioned is that they are both younger and better.

 

[luckysox]

I don't ever wonder what difference $20 or $30 million could make, and I sure as hell don't begrudge someone taking it when they have the opportunity.  That's a HUGE sum of money. I would have been shocked had this gone the other way and he left that money on the table. That's generational money. I also could not make an argument to myself for him to want to be here in terms of legacy, more than for him to want be there in terms of legacy. He's already beloved here, and has done everything possible.  Two WS, one as a very young after beating cancer, one as the horse who put the team on his back (ok, he shared the back with Papi). He's got a no hitter here.  He's done his thing in Boston.  Change is inevitable in life -  especially when the change offers so many really cool challenges, but somehow still comes with a comfort level.  How could he possibly have said no to Chicago? 
 
I'll be buying myself a Cubbies hat for Christmas.  I hope he and Theo can help those fans feel like we did in 2004. 
 
I also hope the Sox get some starting pitching to go with the offensive upgrades. 

 

[scotian1]

Very disappointed but it now looks to me that any additions to the pitching staff is going to be at the expense of the youngsters. This has just raised the bar on both Shields and everyone else to a place the Sox have indicated they don't want to go. Last I heard Shields looking for well north of $100 million.

 

[67WasBest]

No problem with Lester taking the money.  I do believe the organization will look very different on April 4, 2015 than it does today however.  Let the trading begin. 

 

[luffy66]

This got me thinking, of all the players that have left the Sox via FA, I can't remember too many that we may regretted letting go... Beltre is one for sure and maybe O-Cab... but other than that, are there any more? Maybe V-Mart but I think that's pushing it.
 
Pedro, Papelbon, Damon, Bay, Ellsbury.... They all left, but I don't think anybody regrets not signing them to big deals.

True that- although Carlton Fisk and Bruce Hurst were 2 for me that really hurt

 

[miracleofmidre]

The depletion of the farm is only depletion if the Sox draft poorly, certainly a possibility though hopefully not a certainty. If they trade from that resource for proven starters at reasonable costs and replenish the farm (which is the only goal of the farm system, no?) then any supposed depletion is mitigated.

We should have some confidence, though not certainty, that Henry Owens and/or his type will be circulatng through the Sox's farm on a somewhat regular basis, allowing the team to make moves from what is hopefully a continual position of strength. And, the Sox will hopefully also cycle a handful of those guys into the squad. But not all of them.

I don't want to project this onto others, and apologies if this is too much of a generalization, but when reading some of the comments relative to Lester and the prospects I get a sense that there is a feeling that the farm system is a fixed resource and that this is a one-time chance to deal from strength. Personally I am optimistic, and hope that it will be a constant strength.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Very disappointed but it now looks to me that any additions to the pitching staff is going to be at the expense of the youngsters. This has just raised the bar on both Shields and everyone else to a place the Sox have indicated they don't want to go. Last I heard Shields looking for well north of $100 million.

Please no. I didn't really want them to pay Lester 150m +, but I would have much preferred that to Shields at 120 +

 

[ScubaSteveAvery]

As much as it sucks when this happens, I love that the front office is disciplined enough to walk away at a number and not constantly raise it to match the highest bidder. Outside of the shenanigans in 2011, the front office, whether under Epstein or Cherington, has generally set a top line number that they won't cross.  That level of discipline has netted them 3 championships in 10 years. I'd rather the organization I root for remain some semblance of financial discipline than just toss around dollars and end up the situations the Dodgers and Tigers are in: lots of cheddar and no hardware to serve it on. The difference in AAV is $2-3mm, which pays for needed relief filler like Bastardo, or can give the team a little extra in a tough negotiation.  So while the the difference seems low, it is still real money with real consequences. 
 
Good for Lester to turn around his career after a disappointing stretch in 2012 and the first half of 2013.  As for the Sox, they will survive this.  They survived Pedro and Damon leaving, Gonzalez and Beckett getting traded and a host of local stars fading (Schilling, Foulke, Lowell, Varitek). It will suck losing some prospects, but to quote BP's prospect column, "prospects will break your heart." The front office put themselves in a position of strength with a strong farm system, now it's time to use it. 

 

[twibnotes]

The Red Sox have improved the offense, but may have to go with a deep starting staff in which nobody qualifies as an ace.

Love this idea, especially since there may be some good ace rentals at the deadline (lot of good FA arms in '16). Build a deep enough rotation to stay in the hunt, see how the young arms develop and then explore options in July.

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

So in the end all this talk about not going to the highest bidder was just talk.
Not surprising just wondering why he said it.

To be clear I would not leave that kind of money on the table.

Biggest mistake here IMO is letting Theo go.
He is a brilliant GM. He played this well and with class.

Larry and and John low balled Lester then traded him across the country, away from his family, for someone they now don't want or need.

Time to get this done with class was last spring with a serious fair market offer that probably would have been close to what they ultimately offered.

Lowballing him was unnecessary and disrespectful.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Good luck Jon. This stings, but in all likelihood we would have regretted a 6/$155 contract.

 

[ookami7m]

Woke up to see the alert on my phone and my first reaction was sadness. Saw the numbers and really can't blame Either side. Best of luck to Jon and get that money. If he does lead them to a World Series he'll be a hero in two cities.

Now to see what other dominoes fall.

 

[rodderick]

So in the end all this talk about not going to the highest bidder was just talk.
Not surprising just wondering why he said it.

To be clear I would not leave that kind of money on the table.

Biggest mistake here IMO is letting Theo go.
He is a brilliant GM. He played this well and with class.

Larry and and John low balled Lester then traded him across the country, away from his family, for someone they now don't want or need.

Time to get this done with class was last spring with a serious fair market offer that probably would have been close to what they ultimately offered.

Lowballing him was unnecessary and disrespectful.

How unclassy trading Lester from a faltering Red Sox squad to an A's team that was arguably the best in the AL at that point. And had they offered Lester 6/135 this past offseason, this board would have freaked out, and with good reason.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Good luck Jon. This stings, but in all likelihood we would have regretted a 6/$155 contract.

I agree with you, but an interesting thought experiment is figuring out whether the Cubs will regret it. I would imagine if they win a WS during the first four years of the contract, no one will blink an eye over an overpay during the last few years.

 

[OnWisc]

To apparently be that close to landing Lester for 6/$135 is what really sucks. The degree to which it sucks will depend on what happens next. For now, I'm taking solace in the fact that the Sox topping out at $22.5 would seem to indicate that they're not going to part with anyone of consequence to pay Hamels that same AAV. As excited as Amaro may have been to see the Sox miss on Lester, that enthusiasm had to be pretty quickly tempered when he saw the Sox max offer.

 

[Brianish]

Sorry to see him go, but I'm with those who are a bit relieved the Sox didn't match that offer. There are options in the minors, options for trade, and a ton of options via free agency next year. Let's see what happens. 155 million is a lot of eggs in one basket. 
 
Now, I need to go see when the Cubs are visiting Milwaukee this year. 

 

[Jnai]

 
I'd argue Duquette/Port/Hoyer/Cherington get most of the credit for those championships.
 
Theo stuck us with the mess of 2011 and skipped town.

 
Well, then thank god the Cubs have #3 on the list Jed Fucking Hoyer, because otherwise they'd never have landed Lester, right?
 
The revisionist history here is amazing.

 

[InsideTheParker]

I agree with you, but an interesting thought experiment is figuring out whether the Cubs will regret it. I would imagine if they win a WS during the first four years of the contract, no one will blink an eye over an overpay during the last few years.

Lester will have a much easier time pitching to NL lineups, and will probably age more gracefully for the Cubs than for the Sox. In fact, that's why I am wary of signing an NL pitcher like Latos, Cueto, Hamels, etc. Of course there are the Schilling and Beckett examples to the contrary.

 

[sean1562]

They offered to pony up much more than a few mil for Lester. Lines gotta be drawn and all that.
The reason they might be inclined to offer more for the guys you mentioned is that they are both younger and better.

 
All of those guys have been better than Lester recently and there are many more options outside of them next year as well. Mat Latos has been a solid 2 starter and will be 28 at the beginning of the 2016 season. Mike Leake is a solid young inning eater type. Rick Porcello is a FA as is Wei Yen Chin. Not every single one of those guys us going to get a 200 million dollar deal. The FA pitching market next year is really deep, not just top heavy. I expect a competitive season next year, not one where we will be one of the elite teams though. We can see what we have in some of the young pitchers, see what happens with Xander, Mookie, JBJ, Swihart and Vazquez, and assess next offseason, without a massive contract to Jon Lester. Our season next year is still pretty dependent on our young contributors. But even if they fail we have a pretty competitive team. If they thrive we are in the AL East race. 

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Not disappointed by this outcome. Lester is a good pitcher but he's now being paid like a great one, well into the decline phase of his career. Glad the Sox aren't on the hook for that. That being said, the Sox have a ton of work to do. Good value exists (see Francisco Liriano), and the Sox can be patient and let the market play out a bit.

I think the lesson here is an obvious one; you don't generally land free agents when you don't have the best offer. Those counting on Lester and / or Miller returning were always bound to be dissapointed.

It's a weird day.  I completely agree with Rudy.

 

[bankshot1]

Not mad, just disappointed. I liked watching Lester pitch, he was "our" guy, and he seemed to be a good guy.
 
As posted too many times and now for the last time, the Sox blew landing Lester with the 4/70. 
 
Spilled milk
 
Now he gets to play Schilling in Chicago, with Maddon playing Tito's role.
 
Fuck that.

 

[foulkehampshire]

I think Lester was the exception for the FO, and 6/135 was a generous offer, because of their familiarity and comfort level with Jon.
 
In a pitching-rich era of baseball, it makes little sense to spend that heavy on a guy that's going to be hitting his decline phase within a couple years. Hell, Tyson Ross or Cashner could be better than Lester next year. The Sox have plenty of money and talent to scrap together a good rotation. Yeah, they might not get a #1 type guy - but I'd be pretty happy with a few #2's.  

 

[glennhoffmania]

If the decision was this tough for him despite the 20m difference I wonder how much more the Sox would've had to offer to get him. I would've liked to see them go to 140 and maybe that tips the scales.

 

[fineyoungarm]

Panda contract ages:  28, 29, 30, 31, 32
Lester contract ages:  31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 (vesting 15 mil option)
 
Now go look again at the aging curves and Jon Lester's 3 seasons before 2014.

Hee - To be a master of the obvious, Theo (unlike those in the Red Sox FO) has to win BIG right now. The Cubs organization and its brain numbed fans will be thrilled if Lester plays a major role in so doing for a couple of seasons. They won't give a damn if he stinks at age 35. He is their Schilling.

Tough for the Red Sox to compete with that desperation/mentality. And I am pleased they stood down. Now let's swing a deal for Cueto. (Or Garza.)

 

[foulkehampshire]

If the decision was this tough for him despite the 20m difference I wonder how much more the Sox would've had to offer to get him. I would've liked to see them go to 140 and maybe that tips the scales.

 
Maybe the dude just wanted to pitch for the Cubs. Imagine the PR/glory that would come from Lester leading CHC to the promised land. 

 

[DourDoerr]

True that- although Carlton Fisk and Bruce Hurst were 2 for me that really hurt

I'll agree with this and add Fred Lynn to the pot.  Hurst was the biggest loss given how much the Sox were flirting at the time with finally getting over the 1918 hump along with Hurst finally figuring things out.  Losing Hurst set them back and they lost a very solid 1-2-3 punch in Clemens, Hurst and Boddicker.  Always at least a starting pitcher short from there.  Interestingly, in losing Hurst, they lost a 31 year old left-hander to a NL club.

 

[OnWisc]

Lester will have a much easier time pitching to NL lineups, and will probably age more gracefully for the Cubs than for the Sox. In fact, that's why I am wary of signing an NL pitcher like Latos, Cueto, Hamels, etc. Of course there are the Schilling and Beckett examples to the contrary.

Part of Theo's- sorry, Jed's- reasoning behind the deal must be a level of confidence that Jon will age gracefully as, aside from Rizzo and a small sample size of Soler, the Cubs remain all projection. Baez and Alcantara both got on base at a substantially lower rates than JBJ last season, and Bryant, Almora and Edwards are still in the minors. Almora topping out with just 100+ ABs in AA where he put up a .250 OBP.

Would have thought the Cubs would see how the team developed in 2015 and what they really had in Arrieta, then made their moves on next years FA class. So either Jed really believes in Lester or they foresee pitching inflation coming down the road if Greinke opts out and the Yankees and Dodgers are back in the market.

Edit: Remeber guys, Jed's the GM. Theo's president of baseball operations. It was a huge promotion.

 

[fineyoungarm]

 
Maybe the dude just wanted to pitch for the Cubs. Imagine the PR/glory that would come from Lester leading CHC to the promised land. [/quote

FH - about 100 posts ago, it was reported that Lester has commented he wants to be part of history in Chicago. One way or another that is a lock.

 

[grimshaw]

I'm actually pretty relieved that BC showed so much restraint and it reinforces the trust I have in management.  All of this is assuming Lester doesn't rattle off 3 Cy Young seasons and ages like Pettitte.
 
The only thing that ever annoyed me about Theo was that he didn't bring us an A or B prospect.  And I like Joe Maddon.  I hope the Cubs win a few.

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

Lester's cutter will age well, I think, but there's a lot that a team can do with 20 million dollars. Full credit goes to the Levinsons for managing the Lester auction in a way that got the Cubs and Giants bidding into the stratosphere. Theo needed a big splash, and now he's got one.

The Red Sox have improved the offense, but may have to go with a deep starting staff in which nobody qualifies as an ace.

 
With not overpaying Lester they obviously have more flexibility to do this. Making your 7-8-9 innings nails out of the bullpen (like the Royals, or unlike the Tigers) is a great way to mitigate not having five aces in your rotation. As is having overall depth and experience in your 6-9 "starters."

 

[DourDoerr]

On taking less money:  I'll never figure out expecting a guy to take less.  Short careers.  Agent's cut, taxes, etc. and the money they actually get is always quite a bit less than the published figure.
 
A $20 million gap is absurd and no one could expect him to turn that down.  That amount takes care of a sizable chunk of the tax bill due.

 

[canderson]

This sucks. He is my favorite active MLB player.

Thank you for all the memories, they'll be with me forever.

I will say with not really increasing the $$$, the FO shoes a bit of restraint. I believe they have a mapped strategy and will follow it without wild emotional deviation.

Go get the Cubs that title, Jon.

Ben, good luck finding a rotation.

 

[BlackJack]

Sucks that Lester won't be back but $155M/6 is crazy money. I wonder if $144M/6 would have gotten it done but even then, $24M per for 6 years is just too much for a 31 year old pitcher. I wish Jon the best of luck and I hope he does win one with the Cubbies, just so long as it's not against the Sox.

 

[OnWisc]

I'm actually pretty relieved that BC showed so much restraint and it reinforces the trust I have in management.  All of this is assuming Lester doesn't rattle off 3 Cy Young seasons and ages like Pettitte.
 
The only thing that ever annoyed me about Theo was he didn't bring us an A or B prospect.  And I like Joe Maddon.  I hope the Cubs win a few.

They didn't have any prospects. Baez and Vogelbach weren't gonna happen and would have had to have been PTBNL anyway. The names floating aroind that the Cubs pulled off the table were what, Szczur? Vitters? McNutt? None of those guys make a difference. Brett Jackson? Junior Lake? Wellington Castillo? Dallas Beeler? These are basically the biggest contributors from the Cubs system at the time. It was garbage.

 

[rembrat]

 
Maybe the dude just wanted to pitch for the Cubs. Imagine the PR/glory that would come from Lester leading CHC to the promised land. 

 
I don't know but it feels like the bolded is always said whenever a big FA heads to a franchise that hasn't won in a while and it rarely ever happens.
 
It was the money not the chance to win in Chicago and that is totally fine. He's earned that deal.

 

[Leather]

So in the end all this talk about not going to the highest bidder was just talk.
Not surprising just wondering why he said it.

To be clear I would not leave that kind of money on the table.

Biggest mistake here IMO is letting Theo go.
He is a brilliant GM. He played this well and with class.

Larry and and John low balled Lester then traded him across the country, away from his family, for someone they now don't want or need.

Time to get this done with class was last spring with a serious fair market offer that probably would have been close to what they ultimately offered.

Lowballing him was unnecessary and disrespectful.

 
I guess 2013 would be worth letting go, too, then.
 
Can it with the "class" nonsense.  Nobody was insulted enough for it to matter, otherwise the Red Sox wouldn't have even been in the running at that offer, yet they were in consideration over the Giants and Dodgers, who offered considerably more money.  Additionally, this idea that Lester would be more interested in "respect" or "classiness" than the bottom line and where he and his family would be most happy is, frankly, insulting to Jon Lester.  Ya, that's what he cares about: the classiness of the offer.  OK.

 

[foulkehampshire]

 
I don't know but it feels like the bolded is always said whenever a big FA heads to a franchise that hasn't won in a while and it rarely ever happens.
 
It was the money not the chance to win in Chicago and that is totally fine. He's earned that deal.

 
He turned down more money with SF, so obviously there were other elements in play besides just $$$. This is a chance to cement his legacy, and the Cubs are a trendy up-and-coming team that might just have the best chance to win their first WS in over 100 years.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

I agree $155m/6 looks like a lot, but unlike others I'm far from confident that this will definitely be an albatross contract. 6 years is just too far in the future to project the economics of baseball. That widely-panned Papelbon overpay by the Phillies, for example, has turned into a decent contract through a combination of Papelbon's pitching holding up and baseball salaries and reliever salaries in particular increasing.

Plus the Cubs have good economic reasons to go big with Lester. Their bad TV deal runs out in 2019; while they are negotiating a better deal it would be good for them to point to some on-field success.

 

[rembrat]

So in the end all this talk about not going to the highest bidder was just talk.

 
It was reported earlier today that the Giants were prepared to go 7/168 but Lester personally called them and told them they were out. 

 

[nolasoxfan]

Thank you for all the memories, they'll be with me forever.
Go get the Cubs that title, Jon..

Agreed, thanks for the memories and for wearing the laundry with class, dignity, and respect.

As for wishing World Series titles to Lester and the Cubs: screw that. I could give a frozen rat's how the Cubs perform.

The only team that I want winning WS titles is this one.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Maybe the Red Sox shouldn't have sent out an e-mail blast today saying they extended their contract with New Balance. Probably could have waited a day on that one.

 

[Leather]

I don't begrudge Jon Lester, I probably would have done the same thing.  
 
That being said, fuck the Cubs.  Neither I, nor anyone else here, "owes" Theo, or Lester, or the Cubs, any sort of fandom or modicum of rooting interest.  I mean, if it makes you feel better about yourself or something to go out and buy a Cubs hat, bully for you.  But that doesn't make you a "better fan"or any of that shit.  
 
Good luck, Jon Lester.  Go fuck yourself, Chicago.

 

[SoxVindaloo]

I honestly did not expect when Theo took the Cubs job that it would become Death by a 1000 cuts for the Sox. How many more times will this happen?
I wish Jon well, but the Cubs have no business being in this FA market. They will be $50 million deep into Lester before they will be serious contenders unless they buy a $155 million dollar pitcher every offseason.
For Jon SF made sense, the Cubs in 2014 are a nostalgia play.

 

[joe dokes]

 
Maybe the dude just wanted to pitch for the Cubs. Imagine the PR/glory that would come from Lester leading CHC to the promised land. 

 
Which fits under the whole "new challenge" umbrella.  Maybe he didn't *need* a new challenge -- the way Michael Jordan, for example (reportedly) needs them so he gambles a lot -- but he might have *wanted* one. It's not that unusual a thing.

 

[rembrat]

He turned down more money with SF, so obviously there were other elements in play besides just $$$. This is a chance to cement his legacy, and the Cubs are a trendy up-and-coming team that might just have the best chance to win their first WS in over 100 years.

 
Of course but I don't believe winning with the Cubs and what that entails was as high on the list as you do. To me it seemed to be money, working with people he knew (Theo or Ben) then followed by personal glory/challenge.

 

[nolasoxfan]

I don't begrudge Jon Lester, I probably would have done the same thing.  
 
That being said, fuck the Cubs.  Neither I, nor anyone else here, "owes" Theo, or Lester, or the Cubs, any sort of fandom or modicum of rooting interest.  I mean, if it makes you feel better about yourself or something to go out and buy a Cubs hat, bully for you.  But that doesn't make you a "better fan"or any of that shit.  
 
Good luck, Jon Lester.  Go fuck yourself, Chicago.

I am nolasoxfan, and I endorse this post.

 

[grimshaw]

 Junior Lake?

Who's gonna turn down a Junior Lake?  Seriously though, it was tongue in cheek.  I love Theo unconditionally.