Let's say BB stays on until he retires. What does that mean for the franchise?

BigJimEd

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The take is that the defense looks better on paper when you average together the season but does not have enough elite talent to slow down good offenses
As mentioned upthread, wouldn't that be true of every NFL team? Do you think the defense is below average? Average? above average?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Well the Pats changed out QBs and much of the coaching staff. Belichick remains of course. Is that what you’d prefer to do, move on from BB? That’s not a snarky question, it’s real. I mean at some point he will no longer be coaching the Patriots. Or anyone for that matter. Do you think it’s time for him to go?

There’s nothing wrong with saying yes if that’s what you believe. Syracuse desperately needs Boeheim to go and he’s been a legendary coach forever. But it’s time. Actually it’s way past time but still.
I honestly don't know.

I do know that having patience for a rebuild only lasts so long. The Cam year, last year, and now this year. There's been zero progress at all. Mac looks every bit as lost today as he did in his first game in the league. There's been no progress on cleaning up team mistakes. They're spending $50 million on the receiving corps just this year and they have zero idea how to use any of them.

If they were rebuilding and we were seeing improvement, then patience would be warranted. We're not seeing it.

So I don't know about moving on from BB. What I do know is that this year is exposing a lot of people, including their supposed franchise QB. As I mentioned in the other thread I think Mac is not The Guy and that there's no reason to have further patience with him. I'd move on from him first, see what I could get for him now before he ruins the rest of his remaining value, and try to get a better QB in there.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I guess they’d probably be 8-4 with Herbert? Who knows, but replacing one of the worst QB’s in the league with one of the better ones would help. I’d imagine the OL would look better with a more competent play caller.

I think they need to bring in an actual GM; the spending spree after Brady won with the Bucs was pretty much a disaster; Judson was a good signing but the money they gave to Henry, Smith, Agholor, Godchaux, etc is a big reason why the team is mediocre. Perhaps the line would be better had they kept Thuney / Mason, etc. Belichick hasn’t done a great job at judging talent for awhile now via FA or the draft; perhaps he’s not longer able to handle as much as he used to or just needs another voice.
 

Bongorific

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2022 is done they need to start planning for 2023 which is going to be a pivotal year for the franchise because they have a lot of cap space and will have likely a top 18 draft pick in a very good draft at least for the first couple rounds.
I'm not confident in Bill the GM making all the decisions himself after his last spending spree netted Judon and a pile of crap. It is clear he needs to overhaul the offensive coaching tree. Matty P sucked out loud as HC in DET and Joe Judge was somehow worse as HC in NY. They need to go no questions asked.

I think Kraft needs to have a tough convo with Bill and explain he either brings in some outside talent to the coaching staff or perhaps it is time to part ways.
I'd rather have a fresh start with unknowns than run back a great head coach with well below replacement level assistant coaches on offense.
This is it. 6-6 feels right for this team. A few of those games could have gone either way and they aren’t far from being 8-4. But talent wise, they look like 6-6 at best. I don’t think any coach would have done a better job with the talent the past 3 seasons.

BB seems spread thin. There’s no one else I would rather have coaching, but that should come with outside help in the front office and sidelines. He doesn’t have the impactful help of Dante or Ernie any more.

The Schiano thing was so odd. Even though he’s a friend of BB, they were bringing in actual outside coaching talent. And that lasted all of a month.
 

ZMart100

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Eh, spending in FA is always tough. I generally expect 1/3 to be worth less than the contract, 1/3 to be worth about the contract and 1/3 to over perform. Not far from the results. It takes good luck, not skill to look smarter than the rest of the league.
 

Ralphwiggum

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It was depressing watching last night because there's a division rival who has the Pats number, and Bill seemingly can't figure out a way to even stay competitive with them (except in a game where the wind was blowing a thousand miles an hour). You might even say two of the three teams in the division have the Pats number right now, and Bill hasn't been able to figure out how to fix that. Thank God for the Jets, but it's tough to make any real noise in the league when you can't beat the teams in your own division.

That said, 6-6 seems like a pretty good record considering what he has to work with on the roster, and really all three teams in the division have better talent, so maybe he still can coach? Yeah that NFL Network Top 100 list is just a stupid list, but I don't think the Pats had anyone on it last year, and while Stevenson and Judon probably belong on there, I don't think anyone else is close this year either. They have, what, 4-5 starters who you can say are above average NFL players (Stevenson, Judon, Jakobi maybe, Dugger . . . anyone else? Barmore if he's healthy maybe, maybe Andrews if he's healthy). They probably have marginally better depth than a lot of NFL teams, but they lack the top end talent that wins games in the NFL. Particularly if your QB isn't a star the rest of the roster has to have a bunch of them, and they don't have it.

So, that's on BB the GM then? I don't know. I think Bill has earned the right to coach until he doesn't want to anymore (within reason, obviously if they go 3-14 or something then you have to reevaluate), but for the first time in a long time I can say I wouldn't be sad if he decided to hang them up after the season.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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Bill’s better than Landry so I doubt the Pats enter into those doldrums, but in many ways because of both his brilliance and stubbornness the Pats are seemingly destined for NFL purgatory of 8-9 / 9-8 seasons that eventually leave the team crippled once he leaves. I suspect the “there’s no one I would rather have than Bill” crowd will never waver, but there are always options. Will not happen, but Sean Payton would be intriguing.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Eh, spending in FA is always tough. I generally expect 1/3 to be worth less than the contract, 1/3 to be worth about the contract and 1/3 to over perform. Not far from the results. It takes good luck, not skill to look smarter than the rest of the league.
Sure, but they had to invest heavily in FA because they drafted so poorly; both are knocks on Bill the GM.
 

BigJimEd

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Hard to say... maybe 10-15 range?
Seems fair. I'd probably put them in the upper end of that or maybe a little higher. But that's really nitpicking. It is hard to say and I don't think there is a ton of difference between a lot of defenses in that range.

FWIW, Pats D is 8th in pts per game and 4th in pts per drive.
 

rodderick

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That defense is top 10 for sure, even if solely due to their ability to completely shut down teams that aren't good offensively, which most other top tier defenses can't do consistently. They were caught with their pants down by Justin Fields being used like playoff Colin Kaepernick, but aside from that game it's been really rare for the Pats to go into a game against an offensively challenged team and not play well.
 

JimD

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I think Bill has earned the right to coach until he doesn't want to anymore
I wonder if Bob Kraft still feels this way. He watched Bill spend years preparing to move on from Brady, and letting Tom become so miserable in his final years here that he wanted out. We know Bob felt like Tom was a son, and it must kill him to see Brady continue to play elite QB, while his team has descended into mediocrity. Would anyone blame Kraft for thinking that BB's 'Better to cut 'em a year too early than a year too late' mantra maybe should apply to the coach as well? If nothing else, him and Jonathan should be working on a succession plan, if they don't have one in place already, to find the next BB.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I can't get past the offensive coaching changes.

Leaving aside the question of when Bill's time is up, I think we can all agree that at 70, he doesn't have that many years left. No one thinks he'll be here at 80, right? No one would be shocked if he retired at or around 75.

So, he gets a young QB who has a decent rookie year, and then going into year 2 he does something he's never done before and gone with key offnesive coaches who neither "worked their way up" in his system or had offensive coaching experience. And he (and the team) has clearly paid a price for that.

To me it is inexplicable.
 

FL4WL3SS

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I can't get past the offensive coaching changes.

Leaving aside the question of when Bill's time is up, I think we can all agree that at 70, he doesn't have that many years left. No one thinks he'll be here at 80, right? No one would be shocked if he retired at or around 75.

So, he gets a young QB who has a decent rookie year, and then going into year 2 he does something he's never done before and gone with key offnesive coaches who neither "worked their way up" in his system or had offensive coaching experience. And he (and the team) has clearly paid a price for that.

To me it is inexplicable.
I think it's the other way around, he gave his new offensive coaches a shit QB and they don't have the experience to coach around his limitations. Just the fact that they have to keep Mac in the shotgun non-stop tells you all you need to know. The line definitely sucks, but it all starts with the QB. This line looks half as bad (and we're probably not even talking about it) with an even half decent QB that can evade pressure and give different looks. A trash QB makes everyone look bad (the Zach Wilson corollary).
 

Eddie Jurak

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I think it's the other way around, he gave his new offensive coaches a shit QB and they don't have the experience to coach around his limitations. Just the fact that they have to keep Mac in the shotgun non-stop tells you all you need to know. The line definitely sucks, but it all starts with the QB. This line looks half as bad (and we're probably not even talking about it) with an even half decent QB that can evade pressure and give different looks. A trash QB makes everyone look bad (the Zach Wilson corollary).
Would you not agree that the QBs performance declined considerably coincident with the coaching staff changes? I don’t think there’s any way to spin that so that BB comes out looking good.
 

pappymojo

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This team is fundamentally broken, but I'm strangely okay with it. Finish out the season working on getting better and helping the youngsters to learn. Earn a good draft slot and open up salary going into Mac's third year. Last year, the Patriots were 10-7 and they probably overperformed. They had the 21st pick. The Chargers were 9-8 last year in Herbert's second year (they had the 17th pick in the draft). The Eagles were 9-8 last year (15th pick). The Vikings (12th pick) and the Ravens (14th pick) were both 8-9.

The Pats are currently 6-6. The Chargers are 6-5. The Eagles are 10-1. The Vikings are 9-2 and the Ravens are 7-4.

*I'm guessing at some of the picks from last year as there were a bunch of trades.
 

luckiestman

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Would you not agree that the QBs performance declined considerably coincident with the coaching staff changes? I don’t think there’s any way to spin that so that BB comes out looking good.
I thought Mac ended last season kind of mediocre. Is that wrong?
 

E5 Yaz

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I thought Mac ended last season kind of mediocre. Is that wrong?
He tailed off, to be sure. But that was his rookie season, and the overall body of work with a legit OC showed enough to think there might be room for, if not improvement, at least a more consistent performance this year.
 

E5 Yaz

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Would you not agree that the QBs performance declined considerably coincident with the coaching staff changes?
There appear to be posters on this board who seem more invested in proclaiming they were "right" about Mac Jones than they in wanting him (and, therefore, the team) to improve.
And yet, if you look at the poll thread, the vast majority of the votes are for reasons other than the quarterback.
 

FL4WL3SS

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Would you not agree that the QBs performance declined considerably coincident with the coaching staff changes? I don’t think there’s any way to spin that so that BB comes out looking good.
The QB performance declined even with Josh here. There were a lot of red flags last year that folks either chose to ignore or made excuses for. As soon as the training wheels were off and defenses figured out that Mac had terrible pocket awareness, couldn't move the ball down field, couldn't fit balls into tight spaces, and can't read a defense, then this is the product.

I'm convinced that a lot of the folks here haven't actually watched any of Mac's games at Alabama outside of the highlights. I hated the draft pick at the time because he seemed like a very mediocre QB on a great team and had zero upside. You could have stuck any number of college QBs into the offense he had at Alabama and they would have looked at least as good as Mac.

I keep waiting for that game where Mac proves me wrong, but it's just not coming.
 

Eddie Jurak

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The QB performance declined even with Josh here. There were a lot of red flags last year that folks either chose to ignore or made excuses for. As soon as the training wheels were off and defenses figured out that Mac had terrible pocket awareness, couldn't move the ball down field, couldn't fit balls into tight spaces, and can't read a defense, then this is the product.

I'm convinced that a lot of the folks here haven't actually watched any of Mac's games at Alabama outside of the highlights. I hated the draft pick at the time because he seemed like a very mediocre QB on a great team and had zero upside. You could have stuck any number of college QBs into the offense he had at Alabama and they would have looked at least as good as Mac.

I keep waiting for that game where Mac proves me wrong, but it's just not coming.
Let’s accept all of what you say as true. What does that say about BB generally and his decision to replace McDaniels with offensive novices specifically? I would say nothing good.
 

phineas gage

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I hated the draft pick at the time
I certainly didn't love it, but given their draft position (without the miracle scenario of trading up to get Fields), what would you have preferred them to do?

I do agree that Mac doesn't have it, but that is for the other thread. In this one a similar question applies--if not BB, then who? Maybe they waited too long and saw their best replacement candidate head off to LA.
 
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FlexFlexerson

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A snake rots from the head down. Bill the coach may still be good (although this team has played such undisciplined football that I'm not sure I can take that assertion at face value), but Bill the GM has been consistently underperforming for some time now. Even leaving aside Mac (either he was a bad draft pick and Bill is at fault, or the organization has royally screwed him up and in that case it's probably an even more damning indictment of Bill), frankly, the Matty/Judge hiring decisions are fireable offenses on their own. If Bill doesn't face any consequences for such horrendous decision making it's an admission that the Patriots organization doesn't believe in accountability anymore. And that's a kind of rotten culture that you usually need a clean sweep to fix. Maybe Bill will take some accountability and restructure the organization significantly to address his own failings, but I'm not holding my breathe.

ETA: clarified draft pick
 
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FL4WL3SS

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Let’s accept all of what you say as true. What does that say about BB generally and his decision to replace McDaniels with offensive novices specifically? I would say nothing good.
I agree. I just don't know what the other options were. We all assume that they could just hand pick an OC, but they other party also needs to be interested.
 

lexrageorge

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A snake rots from the head down. Bill the coach may still be good (although this team has played such undisciplined football that I'm not sure I can take that assertion at face value), but Bill the GM has been consistently underperforming for some time now. Even leaving aside Mac (either he was a bad signing and Bill is at fault, or the organization has royally screwed him up and in that case it's probably an even more damning indictment of Bill), frankly, the Matty/Judge hiring decisions are fireable offenses on their own. If Bill doesn't face any consequences for such horrendous decision making it's an admission that the Patriots organization doesn't believe in accountability anymore. And that's a kind of rotten culture that you usually need a clean sweep to fix. Maybe Bill will take some accountability and restructure the organization significantly to address his own failings, but I'm not holding my breathe.
Huh?

Mac was a draft pick, not a signing. Except for Fields, who was drafted ahead of him, none of the other QB's from this draft have demonstrated to be any better than Mac. Wilson and Ehlinger are even worse.
 

E5 Yaz

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I agree. I just don't know what the other options were. We all assume that they could just hand pick an OC, but they other party also needs to be interested.
Wouldn't Bill O'Brien have made the most sense, given his ties to Mac? I guess the issues were some combo of not wanting to take him away from Saban and the worry that he'd be around a year, then take a new job. But considering what they wound up with, in retrospect those issues don't seem so bad.
 

FL4WL3SS

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Wouldn't Bill O'Brien have made the most sense, given his ties to Mac? I guess the issues were some combo of not wanting to take him away from Saban and the worry that he'd be around a year, then take a new job. But considering what they wound up with, in retrospect those issues don't seem so bad.
Do you know if BoB was interested in the job? I think we're making some pretty big assumptions here.
 

BaseballJones

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Two games ago, the Pats were coming off a win over the Jets where the defense absolutely destroyed the Jets' offense, and the team stood at 6-4, in sixth place in the conference. Then they went on the road on a short week and lost to one of the top seeds in the NFC; the defense didn't play great but the offense did pretty well, yet they lost. Then this week they lost at home to a team that now owns them, one of the best teams in the league, and the defense played ok but the offense was terrible.

They are currently 6-6 and in 9th place in the conference. The Chargers play at Vegas this weekend. So who knows. NE will have to go 4-1 over their last 5, with possible winning opportunities against Arizona, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, and Miami - none of which will be easy, but all of which are possible (thankfully the Cin and Mia games are home).

This team has its work cut out for itself.
 

FlexFlexerson

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Huh?

Mac was a draft pick, not a signing. Except for Fields, who was drafted ahead of him, none of the other QB's from this draft have demonstrated to be any better than Mac. Wilson and Ehlinger are even worse.
Pardon, misspoke. I meant draft pick. In any case, I actually don't think Mac was a bad draft pick, so it's not an argument you'll get from me, I was just acknowledging that a bunch of people think Mac intrinsically stinks. I think Bill's coaching team has screwed Mac up to some extent, which is a really bad thing to let happen on your watch.
 

E5 Yaz

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Do you know if BoB was interested in the job? I think we're making some pretty big assumptions here.
Nope, but the question on the table was who would have been better. B O'B, if he wanted the job, would have been better
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Two games ago, the Pats were coming off a win over the Jets where the defense absolutely destroyed the Jets' offense, and the team stood at 6-4, in sixth place in the conference. Then they went on the road on a short week and lost to one of the top seeds in the NFC; the defense didn't play great but the offense did pretty well, yet they lost. Then this week they lost at home to a team that now owns them, one of the best teams in the league, and the defense played ok but the offense was terrible.

They are currently 6-6 and in 9th place in the conference. The Chargers play at Vegas this weekend. So who knows. NE will have to go 4-1 over their last 5, with possible winning opportunities against Arizona, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, and Miami - none of which will be easy, but all of which are possible (thankfully the Cin and Mia games are home).

This team has its work cut out for itself.
The Pats are on an 0-10 streak when they allow the opponent to score 20 points or more.

Possible is one thing. But the Pats are simply not a good enough team to make a run to the playoffs.
 

FL4WL3SS

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I know you don't, because it doesn't involve laying it all at Mac's feet
You know, I've been avoiding responding to you because you're just trolling me at every chance you get. I'm sorry my opinion is different than yours, but I try hard to contribute to the conversation while giving my opinion. You got me though, I fell for your bait as I thought you were actually responding in good faith to have a conversation.

Please don't expect any response from me in the future.
 

radsoxfan

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Bill said to blame him if the offense and offensive coaching plan doesn’t work out. So we should blame him as he requested. Seems like a confusing unforced error, but let’s hope he rectifies it soon.

I don’t know if Patricia is a bad OC or horrifically bad, but it’s clear he’s not good or even average given the massive regression from so many.

I’d lean towards giving Bill more help with roster construction and a new offensive staff rather than thinking he should be fired.

Kind of doubt any new hire will be an upgrade in the next 1-2 years.
 

E5 Yaz

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The Pats are on an 0-10 streak when they allow the opponent to score 20 points or more.

Possible is one thing. But the Pats are simply not a good enough team to make a run to the playoffs.
Agreed, they're in the murky 7-10 to 10-7 range for the foreseeable future
 

BaseballJones

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The Pats are on an 0-10 streak when they allow the opponent to score 20 points or more.

Possible is one thing. But the Pats are simply not a good enough team to make a run to the playoffs.
Well don't forget that some of the teams left on their schedule aren't exactly lighting the NFL on fire either, and can be inconsistent.

But yes, looking at the Pats in the light of last night's debacle, it's hard to see how they can pull this off.
 

E5 Yaz

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You know, I've been avoiding responding to you because you're just trolling me at every chance you get. I'm sorry my opinion is different than yours, but I try hard to contribute to the conversation while giving my opinion. You got me though, I fell for your bait as I thought you were actually responding in good faith to have a conversation.

Please don't expect any response from me in the future.
It's not trolling to point out that you're a one-trick pony when it comes to this subject. I don't know how many times you (or anyone) can say the quarterback "sucks" and still regard it as contributing to the conversation. I see posts like that and disregard the rest because they aren't coming from a position of thought-out opinions.
As posters we should be discussing ways to improve the team, or suggesting alternatives to the steps that they've taken that haven't worked.
I suppose I should have phrased my question in the manner of "Would there be any chance of trying to get B O'B away from Alabama this offseason" but given your repeated posting history, you'd find a way to brush that aside as well.
And now I'm done.
 

patinorange

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Two games ago, the Pats were coming off a win over the Jets where the defense absolutely destroyed the Jets' offense, and the team stood at 6-4, in sixth place in the conference. Then they went on the road on a short week and lost to one of the top seeds in the NFC; the defense didn't play great but the offense did pretty well, yet they lost. Then this week they lost at home to a team that now owns them, one of the best teams in the league, and the defense played ok but the offense was terrible.

They are currently 6-6 and in 9th place in the conference. The Chargers play at Vegas this weekend. So who knows. NE will have to go 4-1 over their last 5, with possible winning opportunities against Arizona, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, and Miami - none of which will be easy, but all of which are possible (thankfully the Cin and Mia games are home).

This team has its work cut out for itself.
I would bet heavily against the team going 4-1 to end the season. 1-4 is much more likely.
 

johnmd20

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Huh?

Mac was a draft pick, not a signing. Except for Fields, who was drafted ahead of him, none of the other QB's from this draft have demonstrated to be any better than Mac. Wilson and Ehlinger are even worse.
Ehlinger doesn't count. Lawrence has been way better than Mac, but that is expected. Fields has also been way better.

Wilson is one of the worst draft picks in the last 10 years. Lance is undecided, but that was also not a great draft pick, in my opinion. So Mac was a damn good pick. I don't think Mac is awesome but he's decent but he's also not been given a chance this year. It's a flawed team with a truly awful offensive coordinator and a weak line.
 

Ed Hillel

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It’s worth noting that, 3.5 years ago, basically the entire team needed an overhaul. Turning a team into a SB contender in that time frame with the state they were in and zero picks in the top 14 is next to impossible, unless you luck into a top 5-10 QB later in the draft.
 

Marciano490

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After 20 years as the Cadillac coach, it’s possible that other really really smart and hardworking people have studied and copied his methods and “caught up” with him.

One of his low key weaknesses as a coach throughout seemed to be his inability to grow a coaching tree, which implies he’s not great at finding and working with the next BB. Especially with Josh gone (though not doing great as a HC again), Bill has done a poor job of finding the next Belichick’s who can help him continue to stay ahead of the game.
 

IdiotKicker

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Ehlinger doesn't count. Lawrence has been way better than Mac, but that is expected. Fields has also been way better.
I think the jury is out on Fields, who had a hot run of 3-4 games, but other than that, still isn't completing over 60 percent of his passes, and has 8 picks and 8 fumbles this year.
 

BigSoxFan

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After 20 years as the Cadillac coach, it’s possible that other really really smart and hardworking people have studied and copied his methods and “caught up” with him.

One of his low key weaknesses as a coach throughout seemed to be his inability to grow a coaching tree, which implies he’s not great at finding and working with the next BB. Especially with Josh gone (though not doing great as a HC again), Bill has done a poor job of finding the next Belichick’s who can help him continue to stay ahead of the game.
I think this critique is unfair. The dude literally groomed the current Patriots defensive coordinator from birth...
 

chief1

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Detroit ranks #8 in both points scored and yards gained. It’s a really good offense.

And wouldn’t it most likely be true for pretty much every defense that on the whole, they’re going to struggle more against good offenses, and feast on bad offenses?

Even all time elite defenses have had their struggles against good offensive teams. The 85 Bears gave up 38 to Marino and the Dolphins, just as one example off the top of my head.
Were they not without two of their most important players? Swift and St Brown? Kinda makes a difference no?
 

The Social Chair

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A 6 billion dollar organization hiring Matt Patricia as their offensive coordinator is professional malpractice. I wouldn't let Bill Belichick near another blue chip QB, like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, if I was Kraft.
 

8slim

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Serious question... has Kraft imposed a particularly tight staff budget on BB? By all accounts, we ponied up a lot of money to retain McDaniels when he was leaving for the Colts. But currently we have 2 Belichick kids (who I'm assuming aren't being paid top-end salaries), and Patricia/Judge who I believe are getting paid by their former employers. Plus there's the continuing weird dynamic of not having named coordinators, which I'm thinking could affect pay grade?

Anyway, just curious.