Let's say BB stays on until he retires. What does that mean for the franchise?

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Is the “QB selection game” really anything more than sheer luck (and timing - the Pats did draft at least one good QB, but the timing was such that they would never have been able to keep him until Brady moved on). Maybe I’m forgetting something but I can’t think of a team in the modern NFL that has shown a consistent ability to evaluate QB prospects better than others.
In conversations about joining the Packers, Andy Reid convinced Mike Holmgren to trade for a kid named Brett Favre who was buried on the Falcons roster even though he wasnt being considered for the QB coach.

In his first draft with the Eagles, where half the top 10 picks were QBs, he grabbed Donovan McNabb.

He grabbed Alex Smith from the 49ers when everyone was convinced Smith sucked.

He drafted the current QB for the Chiefs, too.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Name two of his WRs off the top of your head.
Shh, a lot of folks around here think receivers are fungible and don't make much difference. Curious if you think that's true for Jalen Hurts, or if AJ Brown changed, well, everything. I also think Steichen will be one of the next hot names for a head coaching job in the NFL. At least, I think he should be.

Folks think you could drop Lamar in the Patriots offense right now, and he'd succeed. Apparently, he'd make the offensive line look better, and the receivers (of course, he'd also have no Mark Andrews). FTR, I do think Bateman, if he can ever stay healthy, is going to be a #1 for someone in the NFL, and if he is, Duvernay is just fine as a #2, with Robinson as the #3 (and of course Andrews/Likely). Health has killed that team at the skill positions again.

Of course, they did have Hollywood Brown until this year, but they didn't have to throw to their receivers, when they were averaging 200ypg on the ground in 2020-2021.
 

Shelterdog

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I wouldn’t say the Ravens / Titans are in hell but also wouldn’t be really be overly excited to be fans of them. They both have 1 outstanding offensive talent and nothing else on that side of the ball. That would frustrating as hell and feel like a complete waste of a great player. Both will probably be 1 and done in playoffs and what’s the future there? Especially with Burrow, Allen and Mahomes over the next decade. The AFC is going to be a tractor pull and feel like it’s going to be very hard to break through in the coming years.
While I'm definitely worried about the Pats ability to put on consistently better than 500 teams over the next decade--that's really hard to do unless you have a way above average QB for the next decade---I'm really not that worried Allen, Mahomes and Burrow are going to be be leading unbeatable teams. I've said it a bunch of teams but Josh Allen isn't going to be a running threat like he is now for very long, and the decision to make him the teams number one running threat for years is, I suspect, going to reduce his career longevity quite a bit. The Chiefs and Bills had pretty loaded teams in the 2019-21 range but both squads are coming down to earth a little--and the bills and chiefs are coming down to earth. Good QBs help a ton of course, but Brees and Rodgers have both had quite a few 500 or below season, and a lot of seasons where their teams were good but not top seeds.
 

BaseballJones

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In conversations about joining the Packers, Andy Reid convinced Mike Holmgren to trade for a kid named Brett Favre who was buried on the Falcons roster even though he wasnt being considered for the QB coach.

In his first draft with the Eagles, where half the top 10 picks were QBs, he grabbed Donovan McNabb.

He grabbed Alex Smith from the 49ers when everyone was convinced Smith sucked.

He drafted the current QB for the Chiefs, too.
And for all that, Reid has won *one* Super Bowl. With Favre, McNabb, and Mahomes. Kind of amazing actually.

His teams are always good (3 losing seasons in 24 years as a HC; 16 with double digit wins, will be 17 when KC wins one more game this year), and often times absolutely fantastic. But winning Super Bowls is hard.

EDIT: He won one SB with Favre too, as an assistant with GB. Forgot about that.
 
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Super Nomario

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Weirdly, I actually think the Jets’ approach of just continually cycling through QBs is actually the right one - people make fun of their dismal record over the past years, but if they had decided to stick with Darnold or Geno Smith or whoever and they averaged 9 wins instead of 5 the past few years, would that really be that much better?

I guess it comes down to how much one values something like consistent playoff appearances over a legit shot at a title. If you value the former, the Mac Joneses of the world are fine, but if your goal is the latter, the proper strategy might actually be to quickly move on from “good but not great” QBs like that and just keep entering the QB lottery in the hope that eventually your numbers get called.
The decisions for the Jets were pretty easy because they didn't have "good but not great" QBs, they had awful QBs.

Beyond that, there's an opportunity cost to spending a high pick on a QB every 2/3/4 years, especially since you sometimes have to deal draft capital to move up and get your QB (they did for Sanchez and Darnold).

I largely agree with this take on "rebuilding". The NFL ain't college, where a coach typically needs the 3-4 years of a recruiting cycle to really get his program fully in place. I think it's reasonable for a team to bottom out in year 1 of a "rebuild", by design. But from there forward we should see visible progress and some degree of on-field results.

What's frustrating is that I think we did see just that from 2020 to 2021, but this year has seen regression all over the place, from the staff to nearly every offensive unit. The D seems like its coming along much better, IMHO. And I don't expect much from a D in the current NFL aside from the ability to stop good offenses a handful of times each game.
When you look at how they spent last offseason, the failure to take another step isn't surprising. They ponied up big bucks for a bunch of free agents and backloaded the deals with a cheap Y1 hit to get them all under. The bill came due this past offseason, so they couldn't do much. They have a little more flexibility this offseason.

In conversations about joining the Packers, Andy Reid convinced Mike Holmgren to trade for a kid named Brett Favre who was buried on the Falcons roster even though he wasnt being considered for the QB coach.
Is this true? I've never heard this story and can't find a source for it. Ron Wolf has always maintained he wanted to draft Favre the previous year when he was with the Jets, so I'd be surprised if Reid played a role in the deal.
 

BaseballJones

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If the Pats complete a pass in OT against GB and kick the winning FG, and if they don't totally gag in the RZ against Minnesota, they would be 8-4. But...those things went the wrong way in real life and they're 6-6. But they're not THAT far away from us all being pretty darned happy with this season, and optimistic about this organization.

But alas.
 

Shelterdog

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So who would have been their QB in 2021? Hoyer?
Cam, then you draft maybe Dariwsaw and depending on where you have Davis Mills rated you don't make the Barmore trade and take Mills later in the 2nd/early in the third.

I think you'd need a pretty incredible crystal ball (or just plain hindsight) to predict that Jones would be as good as he was as a rookie and then as bad as he's been as a second year player. Like, if you knew what his rookie year would be likely you (or at least I) would absolutely draft him fifteen; that he's gotten so much worse year to year, especially at his supposed strengths of decision making and poise, is remarkable.
 

johnmd20

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If the Pats complete a pass in OT against GB and kick the winning FG, and if they don't totally gag in the RZ against Minnesota, they would be 8-4. But...those things went the wrong way in real life and they're 6-6. But they're not THAT far away from us all being pretty darned happy with this season, and optimistic about this organization.

But alas.
Sure, but some of their wins could have gone the other way, too. The Pats record seems pretty accurate to the team.
 

BaseballJones

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Sure, but some of their wins could have gone the other way, too. The Pats record seems pretty accurate to the team.
I agree. But take Minnesota - they've won a bunch of close games, far more than they've lost. In some ways, that's what winning in the NFL *is* - somehow coming out on top in a few more close ones than you lose, and that can be the difference between a good season and a mediocre/bad one.

It's not all luck, that's not what I'm saying. But I *am* saying that it really doesn't take THAT MUCH to go from 6-6 to 8-4 (or yes, to 4-8). And I'm saying that if they happened to have a couple things work in their favor, they could easily be 8-4 and if THAT happened, we'd all be very happy with this season. The line between being pleased and being disappointed just isn't very big.
 

8slim

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I agree. But take Minnesota - they've won a bunch of close games, far more than they've lost. In some ways, that's what winning in the NFL *is* - somehow coming out on top in a few more close ones than you lose, and that can be the difference between a good season and a mediocre/bad one.

It's not all luck, that's not what I'm saying. But I *am* saying that it really doesn't take THAT MUCH to go from 6-6 to 8-4 (or yes, to 4-8). And I'm saying that if they happened to have a couple things work in their favor, they could easily be 8-4 and if THAT happened, we'd all be very happy with this season. The line between being pleased and being disappointed just isn't very big.
Yes, as BB says, more games are lost than won. But given the absurdly sloppy play at times, the utter lack of offensive execution, and the special teams breakdowns, the Pats have lost several games, and that's the sign of a mediocre-to-bad team. I'm not sure they're "closer" to 8-4 than they are to 5-7 or 4-8.
 

lexrageorge

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I agree. But take Minnesota - they've won a bunch of close games, far more than they've lost. In some ways, that's what winning in the NFL *is* - somehow coming out on top in a few more close ones than you lose, and that can be the difference between a good season and a mediocre/bad one.

It's not all luck, that's not what I'm saying. But I *am* saying that it really doesn't take THAT MUCH to go from 6-6 to 8-4 (or yes, to 4-8). And I'm saying that if they happened to have a couple things work in their favor, they could easily be 8-4 and if THAT happened, we'd all be very happy with this season. The line between being pleased and being disappointed just isn't very big.
A lot of that is a reflection on the talent on the roster. Better teams have game-breaking players that can make that big play in the 4th quarter. And the line gives the QB the proper protection to make the needed throw.

I guess I'm still befuddled by people not recognizing how bad the OL has been lately. Run blocking and pass blocking have been awful. And the Pats of the winning years did have game-breaking players on offense besides Brady: Gronk and prime Edelman are both many leaps ahead of what is on this roster in terms of skill players.
 

SMU_Sox

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Now do it for his career. He has worse receivers than McNabb or Marino.
Oh yeah no argument there. The guys I named are nobodies minus maybe Bateman but he's a giant ? mark. I can do it for his career but what's the point. It's the same point as this year. He has no one to throw to minus Mark Andrews. His OL is falling apart too lately and for the last 2 years he hasn't had any RBs either. It's a shame Dobbins got hurt (again and again). I really liked that guy.
 

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Is this true? I've never heard this story and can't find a source for it. Ron Wolf has always maintained he wanted to draft Favre the previous year when he was with the Jets, so I'd be surprised if Reid played a role in the deal.
Like any “inside” story….you never know. I have heard it a few times, but who knows. Andy and Brett certainly forged a deep bond.
 

SMU_Sox

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I don't know if you were here or not in 2018, Yammer, but I am a huge Lamar guy. Was my favorite player in the 2018 draft. Only non-Patriots jersey I own. I think he gets a lot of underserved shit and has had to carry the offense the last 2-3 years. Greg Roman might be going to Stanford which might end up helping Lamar. I have mixed feelings about it.

Quick edit: I think he should have been the pick at 31 for the Patriots too. I believe they could have found another RB anyway.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Shh, a lot of folks around here think receivers are fungible and don't make much difference. Curious if you think that's true for Jalen Hurts, or if AJ Brown changed, well, everything. I also think Steichen will be one of the next hot names for a head coaching job in the NFL. At least, I think he should be.

Folks think you could drop Lamar in the Patriots offense right now, and he'd succeed. Apparently, he'd make the offensive line look better, and the receivers (of course, he'd also have no Mark Andrews). FTR, I do think Bateman, if he can ever stay healthy, is going to be a #1 for someone in the NFL, and if he is, Duvernay is just fine as a #2, with Robinson as the #3 (and of course Andrews/Likely). Health has killed that team at the skill positions again.

Of course, they did have Hollywood Brown until this year, but they didn't have to throw to their receivers, when they were averaging 200ypg on the ground in 2020-2021.
I knew AJ Brown was good, but I had no idea how good. Hurts has done a ton to get himself better at QB but holy moley does having Smith, Brown and Goedert (and Watkins, who is darned good too) make you look alot better.
 

luckiestman

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They have QBs that were the first and fifth picks in the 2020 draft.
Yeah, Burrow is special but if Mac was throwing to wide open Hill and Waddle I don’t know how much worse he would be than Tua. Tua flat out sucked yesterday.

Bengals didn’t really tank, either. Colts tanking for Luck and Browns tanking is only real tank jobs I recall. I just don’t know how BB could live with himself with tanking. The culture of the organization is way too important.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Hoyer or any of the FA options out there.
I can’t get behind this. Hoyer is awful, Rivers was on his last legs. Cam was DONE, his arm is shredded lettuce. The Pats spent a lot in FA that summer to augment the receiving corps. Given the choice I’d take a first round QB prospect over the terrible Hoyer or the toasted and expensive Rivers or Fitzmagic any day of the week.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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I can’t get behind this. Hoyer is awful, Rivers was on his last legs. Cam was DONE, his arm is shredded lettuce. The Pats spent a lot in FA that summer to augment the receiving corps. Given the choice I’d take a first round QB prospect over the terrible Hoyer or the toasted and expensive Rivers or Fitzmagic any day of the week.
But now you are in poopville.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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But now you are in poopville.
Mac was good last year for a rookie. It’s very rare for a rookie QB to make the playoffs, I was surprised at how uncommon that is.

He stinks this year but I’d rather have him young and struggling than have the dessicated carcass of some vet FA. If BOB comes back to be the OC next year I’ll have confidence Mac will improve.
 

Toe Nash

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So who would have been their QB in 2021? Hoyer?
Who would have been their QB if Mac had sucked in camp? Or if he showed up late for practice one day and BB decided he needed to work his way back out of the doghouse? It was a pleasant surprise when he won the job because otherwise...it was going to be Hoyer.

The overall point is we might not be in any different place right now other than one embarrassing playoff loss.
 

Toe Nash

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My bad, I thought they had cut him at the end of the 2020 season. Maybe they could have ended up with Garrett Wilson.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Cam, Gardner Minshew, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, Nick Folea, there are always guys who can come in and play at a teasonable proce to bridge a year.
Cam was utterly washed in 2020. Dalton is terrible. Mishew might have been an intriguing option, but again given the spending spree on receivers I'm not sure spending several million more on established mediocrities such as Dalton or Bridgewater would have been a wise choice. At least with Mac you have the possibility for upside and improvement.

Cam was the veteran bridge year you're talking about, he served a purpose as the Covid year was going to be strange anyway and his personality was big enough and established enough to buffer everyone in the first post-Brady year. Bringing in a rookie QB for that year after Brady left would have served no good purpose.
 

ShaneTrot

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Cam was utterly washed in 2020. Dalton is terrible. Mishew might have been an intriguing option, but again given the spending spree on receivers I'm not sure spending several million more on established mediocrities such as Dalton or Bridgewater would have been a wise choice. At least with Mac you have the possibility for upside and improvement.

Cam was the veteran bridge year you're talking about, he served a purpose as the Covid year was going to be strange anyway and his personality was big enough and established enough to buffer everyone in the first post-Brady year. Bringing in a rookie QB for that year after Brady left would have served no good purpose.
I wonder what Stidham did or didn't do during the 2019 offseason that turned BB off on him. Stidham should have known the offense and he has a better arm than Cam. I have a lot of respect for Cam. He came into a tough situation and led the team. I really thought after that Seattle game that he could still throw. Of course, he lost Edelman early in the year.
 

Shelterdog

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Cam, Gardner Minshew, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, Nick Folea, there are always guys who can come in and play at a teasonable proce to bridge a year.
The question is, I guess, how many years could any team--and in a particular a BB team--roll over the decision at QB. Say you draft Darisaw instead of Mac Jones, run Cam or Dalton or someone at QB in 2021, finish with 6-8 wins, then what? Draft Kenny Pickett in 2022? Roll it over again? The concept that you don't take a QB until you can get someone you think will be top tenish isn't particularly sustainable for an organization.
 

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I wonder what Stidham did or didn't do during the 2019 offseason that turned BB off on him. Stidham should have known the offense and he has a better arm than Cam. I have a lot of respect for Cam. He came into a tough situation and led the team. I really thought after that Seattle game that he could still throw. Of course, he lost Edelman early in the year.
From what I've read Stidham didn't practice well and didn't put in enough work during the week to be rewarded with a start come Sunday. Cam did, always did. BB always talked about how hard he worked even if the Sunday results weren't what we were hoping for. I think getting COVID ruined Cam's season, honestly. Not just the physical results but the resulting brain fog as well.
 

Ralphwiggum

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The question is, I guess, how many years could any team--and in a particular a BB team--roll over the decision at QB. Say you draft Darisaw instead of Mac Jones, run Cam or Dalton or someone at QB in 2021, finish with 6-8 wins, then what? Draft Kenny Pickett in 2022? Roll it over again? The concept that you don't take a QB until you can get someone you think will be top tenish isn't particularly sustainable for an organization.
Right, and the owner is 81 and probably isn't signing up for many (any) more years in which they aren't really trying to win. I'm sure he understood 2020 was going to be rough after going all-in in 2018 and 2019, but I doubt he was on board for multiple seasons of kicking the can down the road until the right guy became available. Identifying the next QB has been the #1 priority since Brady left. Cam was the bridge to Mac. Mac may not be (probably isn't) the right guy either, but they had to give it a shot in the window in which Belichick and Kraft are still calling the shots.
 

Super Nomario

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I wonder what Stidham did or didn't do during the 2019 offseason that turned BB off on him. Stidham should have known the offense and he has a better arm than Cam. I have a lot of respect for Cam. He came into a tough situation and led the team. I really thought after that Seattle game that he could still throw. Of course, he lost Edelman early in the year.
How many teams turn the keys over to a fourth-round pick in his second year without giving him serious competition (unless he's already established himself as a starter via injury, like Dak)? The idea that Stidham was going to get a real shot at starting was almost without precedent.
 

RedOctober3829

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Greg Bedard on Felger and Mazz says he has heard Evan Rothstein, the analytics guy Matt Patricia brought with him from Detroit, is in charge of a lot of their pass game concepts. Rothstein has never held a coaching position at either the college or the NFL level.
 

8slim

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Right, and the owner is 81 and probably isn't signing up for many (any) more years in which they aren't really trying to win. I'm sure he understood 2020 was going to be rough after going all-in in 2018 and 2019, but I doubt he was on board for multiple seasons of kicking the can down the road until the right guy became available. Identifying the next QB has been the #1 priority since Brady left. Cam was the bridge to Mac. Mac may not be (probably isn't) the right guy either, but they had to give it a shot in the window in which Belichick and Kraft are still calling the shots.
While it wasn't priority #1, finding Brady's replacement was clearly on Bill's radar before he left as well. Like others said, if Brady was mortal then the plan of transitioning from him to Jimmy G. would have been seamless. Even as far back as 2011, investing a 3rd rounder on Ryan Mallet might have been done with replacing Brady in 2014-15 in mind. Brissett as a 3rd rounder in 2016 as well.
 

jsinger121

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Greg Bedard on Felger and Mazz says he has heard Evan Rothstein, the analytics guy Matt Patricia brought with him from Detroit, is in charge of a lot of their pass game concepts. Rothstein has never held a coaching position at either the college or the NFL level.
Both him and Patricia should be flushed out for this ridiculousness.
 

Moonlight Graham

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Isn't it always better to cut a head coach a year too early than a year too late? What Belichick can accomplish as a coach no longer makes up for the damage he creates as the head of the front office. I have no confidence that Bill will wisely spend next season's sizable cap money, draft well, or hire capable coordinators.
 

rodderick

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Greg Bedard on Felger and Mazz says he has heard Evan Rothstein, the analytics guy Matt Patricia brought with him from Detroit, is in charge of a lot of their pass game concepts. Rothstein has never held a coaching position at either the college or the NFL level.
Is Rothstein filling the Ernie Adams role? I do think it's at least interesting that their decline in clock management and overall situational awareness has coincided with him leaving.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Greg Bedard on Felger and Mazz says he has heard Evan Rothstein, the analytics guy Matt Patricia brought with him from Detroit, is in charge of a lot of their pass game concepts. Rothstein has never held a coaching position at either the college or the NFL level.
I am going to say that this is a huge misinterpretation. Doug Pederson was one of the first guys to insert an analytics guy into the playcalling process and there are some great pieces on that theoughout the internet.

The analytics guy - in real time - advises on which sections of the play sheet they should
look, based on down, distance, field position and moat likely defensive approach. He or she is not putting together the plays nor are they calling them.
 

Bowhemian

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Isn't it always better to cut a head coach a year too early than a year too late? What Belichick can accomplish as a coach no longer makes up for the damage he creates as the head of the front office. I have no confidence that Bill will wisely spend next season's sizable cap money, draft well, or hire capable coordinators.
Now this is a take.
 

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I am going to say that this is a huge misinterpretation. Doug Pederson was one of the first guys to insert an analytics guy into the playcalling process and there are some great pieces on that theoughout the internet.

The analytics guy - in real time - advises on which sections of the play sheet they should
look, based on down, distance, field position and moat likely defensive approach. He or she is not putting together the plays nor are they calling them.
Also Rothstein is listed as having been a Special Teams Quality Control Coach for the Lions back in 2012-13, before moving into analytics. So the claim that he's never held any type of coaching position isn't really true. He's been working in the NFL for 11 years now. This isn't Patricia bringing one of his buddies in who's never worked in football before.
 

8slim

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Isn't it always better to cut a head coach a year too early than a year too late? What Belichick can accomplish as a coach no longer makes up for the damage he creates as the head of the front office. I have no confidence that Bill will wisely spend next season's sizable cap money, draft well, or hire capable coordinators.
Ummm, no. Removing a head coach almost always leads to some manner of franchise reset, and sometimes to immense franchise instability. I'm speaking in general terms, of course. The specific idea of getting rid of Bill now is batshit.
 

lexrageorge

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Ummm, no. Removing a head coach almost always leads to some manner of franchise reset, and sometimes to immense franchise instability. I'm speaking in general terms, of course. The specific idea of getting rid of Bill now is batshit.
Fire Clode!!