Life is a Beach - Summer 2023 Transfer

Zososoxfan

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Re Brazilian strikers, consider the following career goal tallies for comparison:

Luis Fabiano
La Liga, 72
UCL, 6

Coutinho
EPL, 47 (40 assists too!)
La Liga, 21
UCL, 12

Gabi Jesus
EPL, 69 (39 assists!)
UCL, 20(!)

Firmino
EPL, 82 (55(!!) assists)
Bundesliga, 38 (29 assists)
UCL, 22 (14)

Robinho
Serie A, 25 (24)
La Liga, 25 (20)
EPL, 14 (8)
UCL, 9 (11)

Adriano
Serie A, 77 (26)
UCL, 14 (4)

Of course Ney, Dinho, and Kaka have more than all of these guys, except for Bobby F. Bobby's the real MF deal.
 

Kliq

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I wouldn't say some of those guys are strikers, certainly not Coutinho and Robinho, especially if we are not counting Neymar as a striker.

Adriano's career was ruined when his father died and he fell into alcoholism, among other issues, and was basically shipped back to Brazil.
 

rguilmar

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I wasn't calling you out at all, just the NYT story.

Adriano was definitely a central striker and a ridiculously talented one. He overlapped with Ronaldo's later years and was very widely viewed as Ronaldo's heir (he eventually did take the 9 shirt), but then his career took a sharp nose dive and he never really fulfilled his potential despite a couple world class seasons in Italy.

Interestingly, Vitor Roque's agent is apparently claiming that both United and Spurs tried to hijack this deal with huge bids. If anywhere near true, those are massive numbers (even if including a lot of bonuses) for an 18-year-old so he must be very very highly rated by people within the game.

View: https://twitter.com/FabrizioRomano/status/1679215402268651522
This is the kind of move Barcelona need to be making, not blowing money on players like Ferran Torres and Raphinha (he’s a fine player but cost a crap ton and is pretty redundant). Get young talent, and have them learn and adjust with the A squad. Madrid have been doing this for years. Sure, there’s a degree of risk involved but this the only way that the club will compete with the money in the EPL. I know Madrid have a strong scouting network in South America, specifically with their contacts in Brazil. I know less about Barcelona’s efforts there.

Of course, Barca is a unique beast. Roque is a goal scoring and chance creating machine. He’s not a guy who drops back and links up with teammates in the middle third though. It remains to be seen how he will adapt to playing the Barcelona Way, which players as talented as Thierry Henry say takes more than a little bit of time. I’m also curious as to how much patience Barcelona will have with the growing pains associated with young players. They obviously have no problem playing young players, but usually La Masia products.

The details haven’t fully emerged but it looks like the deal is structured in a way where the bulk of the payments are in future seasons.
 

67YAZ

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David Orenstein in the Athletic reports that Jordan Henderson has had his head turned by a Saudi offer of £600k+ per week. That would be a tough spot for Liverpool to fill at this point - from a leadership perspective as well as Henderson’s ability to back up all of the midfield roles. And Pool is facing a homegrown player shortage, which this would exacerbate.
 

Pesky Pole

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David Orenstein in the Athletic reports that Jordan Henderson has had his head turned by a Saudi offer of £600k+ per week. That would be a tough spot for Liverpool to fill at this point - from a leadership perspective as well as Henderson’s ability to back up all of the midfield roles. And Pool is facing a homegrown player shortage, which this would exacerbate.
They’d have to go hard after Lavia since he would be under age limit /future homegrown. But a 19 year old won’t help with the leadership void.
 

67YAZ

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And now Al Ittihad has tabled a £40m bid for Fabinho. Could be 2 steps forward, 2 steps back here.

Also, the Saudi club going after the Captain is Al Eittfaq, Gerard’s new gig. So the former Captain is going after his replacement.
 
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67YAZ

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Says here Hendo is close to leaving. I’ve seen elsewhere that Liverpool want £10m. A really surprising turn of events.

 
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SocrManiac

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A few years ago China was buying up some midlevel guys at a somewhat alarming rate. KSA seems to be going for name recognition first, talent second. What is this drain going to mean overall? I can't see a scenario where their league becomes popular enough to justify the money they're spending. I'm not going to watch a Saudi league and I'm sure as shit not buying a shirt (as an aside, if you google Ronaldo jersey there aren't a ton of Al Nassr hits, which seems nuts).

What's the endgame here?
 

Kliq

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The goal is for people to associate the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as a place where recognizable footballers play, and not a backwards country that commits epic human rights violations. The Saudi's understand that their economy is too reliant on oil, and are willing to spend their oil money on ways to transition the economy into a greater balance, and with limited other natural resources, tourism has been a big target. The issue is people don't want to travel to a country where journalists get hacked apart, so this is all an attempt to change the public image of the country.

It's the same model Qatar is using with PSG, and the UAE with Man City. Pump money into a football team so people associate the country with a championship club, or in Qatar's place, the host of the 2022 World Cup. And it goes beyond sports, the creation of the Emirates airline is really just a marketing strategy for the UAE.

Henderson is an interesting player for them to go after because it seems like up until this point the Saudi league has gone after the most recognizable name(s) in the game in Ronaldo and Messi, and then other star Muslim players like Benzema, Kante and Ziyech.
 

67YAZ

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Agree with Kliq’s point, but will add a few more because like all major maneuvers, this one had a lot of angles.

First, over 66% of KSA’s population is age 35 and under. There’s a real bread & circus aspect to this - they’re bringing the biggest stars and world class football to fans, who look around and see an economy with limited opportunities and vast wealth concentrated at the top. Better have the passions of youth invested in football than revolution.

Second, KSA does see a path towards profitability long term. The theory is that if they build a high quality league, top 5 in the world, then they can sell the broadcast rights for big bucks internationally and that those broadcast rights can be bundled with other entertainment packages. This something like KSA developing & acquiring their way to being a Disney/ABC/ESPN competitor internationally. The starting point for this is giving a jolt to the soccer league to buy up big name players, suck in all those eyeballs now, and continue building out over the coming decade.

As an aside, I only started to grasp how different investing is for sovereign wealth funds when the UAE leased all of Chicago’s street parking rights for 75 years. These funds have a completely different model of risk/reward and ROI. Some of these projects aren’t meant to turn a profit for years or decades. And some are just strategic political moves that will never get their money back. It’s a completely different game.

and yes, all of this is tied up in accruing soft power. But as many in KSA point out, the Europeans and Americans have been using sports and entertainment to accrue soft power for over a century now. The EPL is maybe England’s single best public relations asset. The folks in KSA will tell you that they are following the well established path, any whining from Europe and the US is just so much hypocrisy. Not to say I agree that singing a few footballers makes up for assassinating journalists, but history has some merit.
 

teddykgb

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It’s an absurd standard. I always wonder what kind of change people expect in these countries and how fast. As long as Henderson continues to be permitted to express his views in support of LGBTQ rights then I can think of fewer things better than his going to Saudi Arabia and having people think positive things about him and therefore being more open to other things he says. This concept of “sportswashing” can be a two way street and we aren’t going to see these countries speedrun the entire western civilization progression to our still far too regressive current state in just a few years. These are not countries in which I would choose to live and these are not countries whose regimes I think are actively wanting things to progress toward a more liberal future. But the change you want to see in these places will take decades or even centuries, as it has pretty much always taken, and the only way to get from here to there, in my view, is for the people of these countries to have their bubbles pierced and see that nothing dramatic has happened.

It’s great to discuss the shortcomings of these places and highlight them and put pressure on their traditions. We can’t hand wave it all away with “change takes time”. But we do have to understand that it will take time and not call people like Henderson hypocritical until he’s done something actually hypocritical. If he goes there and still advocates normally then as said earlier that may even be a net good
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Agree with Kliq’s point, but will add a few more because like all major maneuvers, this one had a lot of angles.

First, over 66% of KSA’s population is age 35 and under. There’s a real bread & circus aspect to this - they’re bringing the biggest stars and world class football to fans, who look around and see an economy with limited opportunities and vast wealth concentrated at the top. Better have the passions of youth invested in football than revolution.

Second, KSA does see a path towards profitability long term. The theory is that if they build a high quality league, top 5 in the world, then they can sell the broadcast rights for big bucks internationally and that those broadcast rights can be bundled with other entertainment packages. This something like KSA developing & acquiring their way to being a Disney/ABC/ESPN competitor internationally. The starting point for this is giving a jolt to the soccer league to buy up big name players, suck in all those eyeballs now, and continue building out over the coming decade.

As an aside, I only started to grasp how different investing is for sovereign wealth funds when the UAE leased all of Chicago’s street parking rights for 75 years. These funds have a completely different model of risk/reward and ROI. Some of these projects aren’t meant to turn a profit for years or decades. And some are just strategic political moves that will never get their money back. It’s a completely different game.

and yes, all of this is tied up in accruing soft power. But as many in KSA point out, the Europeans and Americans have been using sports and entertainment to accrue soft power for over a century now. The EPL is maybe England’s single best public relations asset. The folks in KSA will tell you that they are following the well established path, any whining from Europe and the US is just so much hypocrisy. Not to say I agree that singing a few footballers makes up for assassinating journalists, but history has some merit.
I buy all of this except the profitability angle. The Bundesliga and Serie A both make in the neighborhood of 200m euro annually from international TV rights, which is about twice what Saudi Arabia are going to pay a single player like Benzema per year. There's basically no money in international broadcasting unless you're the top domestic league in the world in the PL, the top international competition in the world in the CL, or La Liga (with a very specific, language-dependent connection to the Latin American market).

In my view, the play here is essentially to make the top four Saudi clubs high profile enough and to splash enough cash around the game that Saudi sides will get a seat at the table in the evolving configuration of international club competition, whether that means expanding the CL to include clubs outside UEFA, a new Super League that includes Saudi clubs, or being mainstays in a Club World Cup that starts getting offered more regularly and becomes a competitor to the CL as the most prestigious international club competition. As with LIV Golf, the idea is to create their own thing and flash so much money that they can then partially takeover or merge with existing/evolving sporting institutions in the West. And that merger then both binds the hands of Western governments in terms of foreign policy, basically tying the countries together in certain ways, while also helping accomplish the goals Kliq talks about in terms of attracting tourism, real estate investment, etc to soften the transition away from fossil fuels.
 

67YAZ

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I buy all of this except the profitability angle. The Bundesliga and Serie A both make in the neighborhood of 200m euro annually from international TV rights, which is about twice what Saudi Arabia are going to pay a single player like Benzema per year. There's basically no money in international broadcasting unless you're the top domestic league in the world in the PL, the top international competition in the world in the CL, or La Liga (with a very specific, language-dependent connection to the Latin American market).

In my view, the play here is essentially to make the top four Saudi clubs high profile enough and to splash enough cash around the game that Saudi sides will get a seat at the table in the evolving configuration of international club competition, whether that means expanding the CL to include clubs outside UEFA, a new Super League that includes Saudi clubs, or being mainstays in a Club World Cup that starts getting offered more regularly and becomes a competitor to the CL as the most prestigious international club competition. As with LIV Golf, the idea is to create their own thing and flash so much money that they can then partially takeover or merge with existing/evolving sporting institutions in the West. And that merger then both binds the hands of Western governments in terms of foreign policy, basically tying the countries together in certain ways, while also helping accomplish the goals Kliq talks about in terms of attracting tourism, real estate investment, etc to soften the transition away from fossil fuels.
That's a very good call on positioning the domestic league to be part of whatever future configuration top-level competition takes. KSA is already bankrolling the new Club World Cup and are making a strong play for the 2030 WC. No doubt they would invest in a Super League and lobby for access for their league based on the accumulation of world class talent.

Agree that the broadcast rights on their own aren't worth a lot. But if they are bundled with LIV-PGA Golf, top-tier boxing matches, F1 races, top-tier horse racing...and that this sports content is further bundled into a streaming platform, a platform that might emerge in the wake of whatever fall out comes from the collapse of the current model*...I'm reading tea leaves here based on the track records of the sovereign wealth funds as well as the public moves they've made (e.g., the Saudi PIF seeking to invest in BeIN). But I don't think we can imagine too big for what the oil monarchs hope to accomplish.

*The WAG strike thread over in "Omar is Dead" links to a lot of good articles about how the streaming model is starting to look like a "house of cards" (enjoy the pun) and the failure of a lot of platforms followed by rapid consolidation is not far off. An investment fund sitting on mountains of cash will be in a good position to snap up streaming/broadcast rights and content libraries to build one of these new consolidated platforms and have enough runway to outlast a lot of competitors.
 

candylandriots

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I buy all of this except the profitability angle. The Bundesliga and Serie A both make in the neighborhood of 200m euro annually from international TV rights, which is about twice what Saudi Arabia are going to pay a single player like Benzema per year. There's basically no money in international broadcasting unless you're the top domestic league in the world in the PL, the top international competition in the world in the CL, or La Liga (with a very specific, language-dependent connection to the Latin American market).

In my view, the play here is essentially to make the top four Saudi clubs high profile enough and to splash enough cash around the game that Saudi sides will get a seat at the table in the evolving configuration of international club competition, whether that means expanding the CL to include clubs outside UEFA, a new Super League that includes Saudi clubs, or being mainstays in a Club World Cup that starts getting offered more regularly and becomes a competitor to the CL as the most prestigious international club competition. As with LIV Golf, the idea is to create their own thing and flash so much money that they can then partially takeover or merge with existing/evolving sporting institutions in the West. And that merger then both binds the hands of Western governments in terms of foreign policy, basically tying the countries together in certain ways, while also helping accomplish the goals Kliq talks about in terms of attracting tourism, real estate investment, etc to soften the transition away from fossil fuels.
I could also see the strategy of making the Saudi league to the Arabic and Muslim world what La Liga is to the Spanish-speaking world. Instead of all those eyeballs watching the PL on Saturdays, someone in Egypt or Morocco or Jordan would watch the Saudi League.
 

InstaFace

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Whither McKennie, then? No obvious landing spot comes to mind.
There are rumors of Brighton and another PL team, as well as Dortmund (unlikely) and others.

His stock has fallen through guilt by association re: Leeds, but not a lot. There is plenty of demand for his services, per notoriously unreliable soccer reporting. And now the entire Big 5 knows that they can impose their price on Juventus (barring a bidding war) because they are excluding him from their plans.
 

candylandriots

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I haven’t seen anywhere that I know to be a respected source print this, but if these Ghanaian websites are accurate that the Saudis are offering Jordan Ayew $175k a week, we are officially into silly territory. That’s my line (if it happens, which seems an incredibly large IF).

Edit: and I say this as probably one of the handful of people that think Ayew is seriously underrated.
 

Cellar-Door

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Add Arthur Melo and Zakaria to the list of players told that they are not needed at Juve any longer. Club in transition in more ways than one.
Zakaria to West Ham has reportedly been in negotiation for a while, it was loan with option vs. loan with obligation stage, but some rumors recently that it may end up a sale at a much lower price (it was something like 18M euro after a loan, rumors bid for a straight sale was 13M)

There are rumors of Brighton and another PL team, as well as Dortmund (unlikely) and others.

His stock has fallen through guilt by association re: Leeds, but not a lot. There is plenty of demand for his services, per notoriously unreliable soccer reporting. And now the entire Big 5 knows that they can impose their price on Juventus (barring a bidding war) because they are excluding him from their plans.
Watching him at Leeds.... I don't think the PL is the league for Weston, he seemed to really struggle with the pace of play, especially when he didn't have Adams behind him
 

Zososoxfan

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Seems to me like there's been a noticeable lull in transfer activity over the last week-1.5 weeks. I assume this is because many clubs are going on tours/beginning preseason, so the urgency to get players in/out before that has waned, and now it's about getting deals done prior to the season (the big 5 leagues all start between August 11-20), although the difference between that and the window closing (Sept. 1) is probably less important than the difference between a player being available in preseason or not. In any event, just closely following 2 clubs indicates to me that there's still a ton of transfer business to occur before September.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Seems to me like there's been a noticeable lull in transfer activity over the last week-1.5 weeks. I assume this is because many clubs are going on tours/beginning preseason, so the urgency to get players in/out before that has waned, and now it's about getting deals done prior to the season (the big 5 leagues all start between August 11-20), although the difference between that and the window closing (Sept. 1) is probably less important than the difference between a player being available in preseason or not. In any event, just closely following 2 clubs indicates to me that there's still a ton of transfer business to occur before September.
I think its also a matter of clubs wrapping up their priority targets early and now many clubs are entering a phase in the market where they want/need to sell before they can buy or they are indifferent between a few options and are willing to wait and see which player becomes available for the best price as Deadline Day gets closer, etc.
 

67YAZ

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This is loser talk.


The Saudi league isn’t really competing with MLS in any meaningful sense right now and it’s hard to picture a trajectory where they would be.

The real competition for MLS is coming with England lowering their work visa requirements, which likely means increased competition for young Central & South American talent. MLS still has a lot of advantages over the English Championship in this area right now - older & stronger connections; many more Spanish speaking managers, coaches, players, communities; a growing track record as a stepping stone league; and more money every year. And MLS club might get quickly outbid by a Championship or some League One sides for some players, but larger scale change will take time.
 

rguilmar

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Seems to me like there's been a noticeable lull in transfer activity over the last week-1.5 weeks. I assume this is because many clubs are going on tours/beginning preseason, so the urgency to get players in/out before that has waned, and now it's about getting deals done prior to the season (the big 5 leagues all start between August 11-20), although the difference between that and the window closing (Sept. 1) is probably less important than the difference between a player being available in preseason or not. In any event, just closely following 2 clubs indicates to me that there's still a ton of transfer business to occur before September.
I get the sense that there is a massive game of #9 dominoes set up right now. Once one guy moves it can set off a chain reaction, especially if that one guy is Mbappe.

Things have been busy in Catalunya though. Your Blaugrana just finalized a move to bring back former La Masia product Oriol Romeu who has a short drive down from beautiful Girona. Romeu is probably the Busi “replacement” or at least a dual pivot. He was really good last season. Real Betis brought back Catalan Hector Bellerin and brought in Catalan Marc Roca on loan from Leeds. Rumor has it that current Barca player Alex Collado is next (you guessed it, another Catalan). Betis have a huge fanbase in Catalunya dating back to the Franco years, as all things in Spain do.
 

Jimy Hendrix

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The Saudi league isn’t really competing with MLS in any meaningful sense right now and it’s hard to picture a trajectory where they would be.
They're competing narrowly in the sense that the Saudis and the MLS teams who are still trying to buy flashy tail-end of career DPs are now fishing in the same pond. MLS is doing a lot of other things that the Saudi league is not doing yet at all (developing and selling homegrowns, buying younger players to develop and flip, etc.)
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I get the sense that there is a massive game of #9 dominoes set up right now. Once one guy moves it can set off a chain reaction, especially if that one guy is Mbappe.
Mbappe to Madrid, Vlahovic to PSG, Lukaku to Juventus seem to be the rumored dominoes.

I could also see Bernardo to PSG as a possibility, and then maybe something out of left field like Fede Valverde to Man City (rumors are that Real needs to sell somebody to balance the books if they buy Mbappe).
 

Kliq

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You definitely can't tell me anything I don't already know about old TK.
 

rguilmar

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Oh this is rich coming from the owner of an EPL team.

Do contracts in England generally not have release clauses? I generally follow La Liga where they are in all contracts. It’s not required necessarily but with Spanish labor laws the way they are, release clauses are in all contracts.
 

Jimy Hendrix

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I mean, he's a rich dickhead but has ordered the dismemberment of nobody that I am aware of, so if I must pick a side...
 

swiftaw

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Oh this is rich coming from the owner of an EPL team.

Do contracts in England generally not have release clauses? I generally follow La Liga where they are in all contracts. It’s not required necessarily but with Spanish labor laws the way they are, release clauses are in all contracts.
No, most EPL contracts do not contain release clauses.
 

InstaFace

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You definitely can't tell me anything I don't already know about old TK.
Likely not, but the hubris was just a little thick for me to not roll my eyes at what he said. Like, (A) this is sour grapes for being outbid, when you're already an owner in the richest league in the world, nobody wants to hear it. (B) you inherited all your money and don't exactly lavish it on humanitarian causes, nobody wants to hear the big fish gripe when an even bigger fish comes along. (C) I rather doubt you were screaming about the Saudis' human rights records before they started trying to buy Mitrovic, Khan - didn't you vote to approve the Newcastle sale? So back then, grisly murder was no impediment to becoming a business partner of yours, but now that they're muscling in on your turf, you go crying to the press?

Give me a fucking break.

Chicken Regrets Opening Door of Henhouse for Wolf
"He sounded so sweet and needy, I couldn't just leave him out there!" Henrietta gasped
 

rguilmar

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Sergio Canales is transferring from Real Betis to Monterrey. He’s a 32 year old fringe Spanish international. It’s rare for a Spanish international to move to the Mexican league, but he’s up there in age and might be looking for a new challenge. He did get several soft red cards last year after he criticized Mateu Lahoz (who hasn’t???) which might have left a sour taste in his mouth. Or perhaps Andres Guardado and Diego Lainez really sold him on life in Mexico.
 

InstaFace

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Doesn't Liga MX pay better than you'd expect for a league of its competitiveness? Their average salary (~$450k / yr, still higher than MLS's ~$420k) is really good given their country's economy, and is probably higher than a lot of non-big-5 European leagues that he might have otherwise gone to. Add that to the language comfort and I can see them being a great fit for him. Will take a bit of a hit on local cuisine quality, but that would've been true just about anywhere.
 

rguilmar

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Doesn't Liga MX pay better than you'd expect for a league of its competitiveness? Their average salary (~$450k / yr, still higher than MLS's ~$420k) is really good given their country's economy, and is probably higher than a lot of non-big-5 European leagues that he might have otherwise gone to. Add that to the language comfort and I can see them being a great fit for him. Will take a bit of a hit on local cuisine quality, but that would've been true just about anywhere.
Yea, and many La Liga teams have smaller budgets than you might expect, though actual details are never truly known. Idk what marketing opportunities are involved either both in Mexico and in Spain I suppose that it’s slightly surprising because he’s still more than capable of playing in La Liga, Betis did qualify for the Europa League, and it essentially is the end of his international career when he had an outside chance at making the Euro squad, though Spain are looking to integrate more youngsters at this point. Of course Betis are always at the edge of financial trouble too, so that might matter.

Monterrey do have a really, really cool stadium.
 

Jimy Hendrix

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Doesn't Liga MX pay better than you'd expect for a league of its competitiveness? Their average salary (~$450k / yr, still higher than MLS's ~$420k) is really good given their country's economy, and is probably higher than a lot of non-big-5 European leagues that he might have otherwise gone to. Add that to the language comfort and I can see them being a great fit for him. Will take a bit of a hit on local cuisine quality, but that would've been true just about anywhere.
Liga MX pays better than you would get in comparable leagues for Mexican players specifically due to their roster construction rules, I know that for a fact. I am less sure if it does so overall (definitely does if you're Gignac, I am not as sure if you are South American or Canales or Vincent Janssen that one year).
 

rguilmar

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Looks like Luca Koleosho is being sold to Burnley by Espanyol. He is still US eligible though provisionally cap tied to Italy. I’ll never really understand why the US never rated him. He was born and raised in Connecticut, and is also Canada eligible. I could be wrong, and often am, but it seems like he’s one that has gotten away (at least for now) because US coaches didn’t think he was that good. I’m sure TB has much more insight on this one.

He’s 18.
 

rguilmar

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Things are getting interesting in Paris. PSG believe Mbappe has agreed to terms with Real Madrid to join the La Liga club at the end of the season on a free transfer, so PSG have made Mbappe available for sale and have removed him from their preseason tour.

I’m sure Madrid have basically told Mbappe that any upfront bonus that they have budgeted to give him will have any transfer fee deducted from it, so it’s in his best interest to stay at PSG. Plus it hurts PSG in terms of FFP if they cannot get a transfer fee for him, which is the very definition of a “Cherry on an ice cream sunday“ for Madrid. PSG have no leverage here at all and are paying the price for that stupid contract they signed last year.

View: https://twitter.com/fabrizioromano/status/1682498224739721216?s=46&t=XvGOrrWIyL-5CHVVL_0JYQ