The problem is that a lot of THIS year's salary is already spread into next year. (edit: I think...)
Yep, that was the point I was trying for.
I have a few more thoughts about this (big surprise, I know). I wonder whether it would be a good idea to have a Patriots salary cap thread? Some of the same issues get discussed in the individual threads. It’s a bit weird of a thing to have a thread about given that Miguel’s twitter is so comprehensive on the issue, but sometimes it’s interesting to cover aspects beyond the math. Anyway, my not so coherent thoughts in no particular order.
1. In the abstract, borrowing $4 to 8.5 million from the next year’s cap for a transcendent player is no big deal. It’s doing it on the heels of already being cap strapped and to pushing $14.5 million to next year for an unsigned QB who, if he plays, will get at least $25 to $30 million, that makes it a bit scary.
2. The impact of the Brown deal on next year’s cap is actually more than the $4 to $8.5 million. It’s not like they are paying him league minimum this year, and that has cap consequences for next year. Before the AB signing, the Patriots had pushed off a $14.5 million cap hit to next year in the Brady deal (gift), but in some senses that was inflated because the benefit of doing so was that they opened up cap space for 2019. And it’s a zero sum game. Whatever they don’t spend on practice players, free agents, carries over to next year. A week ago, they were looking at having borrowed $14.5 million from 2020, but with $6.5 million in cap space eligible to carry over after the other 2019 costs. Now, they are looking at having borrowed $19 to $22.5 million from 2020 with zero cap space to carry over, and in fact, they are going to have to make at least one or two more moves that borrow from next year just to get through this year.
3. The techniques they used for Brown and Brady are straight out mortgages. Often, these cap saving moves are just shuffling deck chairs from one year to another in that it all carries over. The conversion to a signing bonus, or whatever, is also borrowing, but it’s not as naked a technique as simply pretending to sign a player for a future year for the sole purpose of borrowing that year’s cap. When the Saints did it with Brees, it was widely reported as a “holy shit, when the time comes to pay the piper that is going to be rough,” and the same is kind of true here. They borrowed $9 million for Brady and they now have borrowed another upwards of $8.5 million for Brown.
4. The NLTBE technique is a bit scary. Doing it for $500k here or there is not a big deal. But they’ve now done it three times for upwards of $5 million. When you do it for Gronk and Brady, it’s not a huge deal. It’s basically a way to get them extra compensation that you’ll pay for later. These are players committed to winning, not incentives, and also when it was done they were already going to be on the team in future years when you knew it would be a make good. In fact, it now seems pretty clear that the NLTBE thing with Brady was largely a sham. A legal sham, but a sham nonetheless. When he didn’t earn them, they simply gifted him another $8 million. Gronk’s were also more in the form of gifts to keep the player happy. Putting nearly a third of the potential comp for a one-year player with a reputation as a diva in NLTBE incentives is a little bit of a desperate move by a cap strapped team. It’s one thing to say, “if he steps out of line, they’ll cut him, Belichick doesn’t deal with that crap.” It’s another, though, to have the guy playing great and then to have Josh have to tell him they are going to run the ball 38 times in week 16 when he’s on the verge of incentives, because it’s in the best interests of the team.
5. In the end, if we’re reading tea leaves, it’s probably safest to assume this means that at least at this point and assuming the cap doesn’t increase by multi-millions in the next couple of years, that the Patriots (like the Saints) are presuming that the first year or two post-Brady is going to be with non-vet at QB. They will find ways to push a $20 million balloon down the line year to year as long as Brady plays, but eventually it’s going to pop and you have to make sure you don’t turn a $20 million balloon into a $40 million balloon. But the reality is, QB is the one position where playing a cost-controlled player even for just one year at the position can wipe out a large carryover cap charge.