March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins
- Thread starter YTF
- Start date
Yeah if Valdez turns that DP his outing looks much better. That ball that touched the lower inside corner of the plate should have been a called strike 3 as well. Hopefully the back won't be an issue after back to back outings.
I wonder why Cora hasn't gone with defensive replacements for Valdez and Abreu in the late innings. I'm guessing it's wanting to give a guy with a scheduled day off the entire day off, but at some point he'll need to put the best defense on the field to protect leads. Almost cost them again today.
The good news is that the Sox appear to have some very good new bullpen arms in guys like Weissert, Campbell, and Slaten, so they'll have options down the road if needed.
With the save today, Jansen tied former Red Sox Billy Wagner for sixth on all the time list. He’s just two behind John Franco, and 15 behind K-Rod. A reasonable season would leave him behind only Mo, Hoffman, and Lee Smith. Kimbrel is only five saves behind Jansen, then a big drop off among active guys with Chapman at 322, Mark Melancon at 262, and Edwin Diaz at 202.
They started 4-7 last year and squeaked into WC contention. So perhaps nothing a 4 game win streak can't fix?
(But seriously, they got rolled by PIT and LAA.)
I'd deleted this memory. Only 13.2 innings, but they were pretty good!
That sums up his career, doesn't it? Billy Wagner, only X innings, but they were really good!
In terms of Abreu (and ostensibly bringing in either O'Neill or Duran, whomever has the day off), I have no idea. Especially since they are both be better bats too (not like you're losing Devers bat for a defensive upgrade...).
In terms of Valdez (and Reyes) because Reyes kind of stinks defensively on the middle infield too.
For his career FG has his UZR/150 averages as -16.5 at 2b and -2.6 at SS. He was in many ways (I think) graded on a curve last year because being slightly below average compared to the parade of suck both offensively and defensively that was Hernandez, Arroyo and Bobby Dalbec (wherever he plays) he might as well have been Alex Rodriguez circa 2002. Compared to a functional roster, he should be more of a utility player for a noncontending team and AAA depth for a contending one.
If your options in the middle infield late in a close game are "30 year old with crappy defense with a really crappy bat" or "25 year old with crappy defense and an average bat", I'd take the latter also. Hopefully this sorts itself out when Grissom comes back, Reyes is sent to the minors (doubt he'd get claimed, but who knows) or DFA'ed if necessary, and Valdez becomes the "someone gets a day off" infielder.
Last edited:
And it’s going to be really nice next week when they come back…too bad Fenway opening day doesn’t coincide with the eclipse, though. That would have been a lot of fun.
0 career saves with the Sox.
Crazy that in Wagner’s last season, he had a 1.43 ERA, 37 saves, and 13.5 K/9!
Don’t recall the specifics as to why he stopped playing but certainly seemed like he had a lot left. Like Papi, I guess!
Lotta injuries at the end for Billy, I assume that, at 39, that rehab process becomes less and less rewarding.
Before signing a one year deal with Atlanta, Wagner made it known that he would be retiring after the year to spend time with his family regardless of how he pitched. He pitched great and held true to his word. Admirable, but it's probably what has kept him out of Cooperstown thus far. A couple more similar seasons gets him to third all time in saves and I think he's in without question.
100% Also like getting one of the West Coast trips out of the way now rather during the grind of the season. And the other trip out there is conveniently right after the ASB - plenty of time to get out there early and acclimate. The scheduling gods have been kind for once.
Putting this here, two updated scouting reports from FanGraphs' Eric Longenhagen on Justin Slaten and Wilyer Abreu
Slaten (who gets a 40+ FV grade):
Slaten (who gets a 40+ FV grade):
Abreu (who gets a 40 FV grade):
Available here along with the Top 100 scouting reports on Mayer, Teel, Rafaela, Anthony and Bleis (FG's 2024 Red Sox top prospects list isn't out yet): https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board?org=bos
“¡Mira — está Matt Joyce! Hey, Matt Joyce!”
View: https://youtu.be/jvGusVyQivg?si=oGtH3K5Lb-fRwq17
I’ll take that comp.
View: https://youtu.be/jvGusVyQivg?si=oGtH3K5Lb-fRwq17
I’ll take that comp.
Good win!!! Crawford faltered a bit, defense faltered even more, looks like Story will miss an amount of time TBD, BUT...the offense picked the team up which is what you need on days like this with five home runs. Tyler O'Neill's is off to a great start, Duran's still still hot, McGuire has been getting the lion's share of PT behind the plate and he's responding offensively. Kenley looked a bit better as he came in to nail things down and 8 games into a 10 game west coast road trip the team is 6-2 and in first place.
The Story injury aside, which will have clear cascading consequences, the defense is a huge problem. They have two absolute butchers in Valdez and Abreu getting regular run. An infield of Devers, available Story replacement, Valdez, and Casas has to be one of the worst in the MLB. Who knows with Grissom. Hopefully, he's at least average. Ceddanne is amazing obviously, but his head on fire style of gameplay might not be the best style for staying healthy. He had an awkward encounter with the CF the other night and committed the brain-dead sin of sliding head first into 1B too. Fingers crossed there.
How much of your assessment of the rest of the infield is based on their performance last year? It may well change with Story out, but early on, they've all looked pretty clearly improved on defense to me.
I do agree about Abreu though, he's looked awful.
I do agree about Abreu though, he's looked awful.
In the early early early going here the team appears to be +3 OAA overall, which is tied for 6th in MLB.
I wonder to what extent a pitching staff that is pounding the zone and throwing strikes could lead to a more efficient defense (if at all).
Moving this over here cause it's not Story content, but Teoscar has looked bad with poor range in a normal RF; he'd be a disaster at Fenway.
Rafaela is very clearly a major league CF and he needs to be hitting every day to bring his bat around. So far he's actually shown improvement in the bat too; his Ks and BBs are around what we'd been hoping for and not what we dreaded. His BABIP is a little low (he's getting under too many pitches), but his profile gives cause for hope imo.
We know who Devers is. Casas looks average. Valdez is honestly terrible. The Story replacement will be a huge downgrade.
Rafaela probably accounts for most of that. Have you watched the past few games? It's been... not good.
I was at the game last night sitting on the third base side and had a good view of lefthanders at the plate. Maybe it was my angle, but Devers’ stance seemed pronouncedly more open than it has been - his right foot was on the back chalk of the batter’s box. Is this different or is that how he always is? Just wondering if he might be altering something due to that left shoulder thing that kept him out last week.
Abreu has the ability to be a good defensive outfielder. He's made several bad plays already, but I think he's pressing and losing his focus out there, including on the bases. He played very calm and relaxed last season, and was good defensively in AAA and fine in his short major league time.
I think if he starts hitting his defense will improve a bunch. And if he doesn't start hitting he will probably be sent to AAA for a while.
I think if he starts hitting his defense will improve a bunch. And if he doesn't start hitting he will probably be sent to AAA for a while.
I've noticed that too this year (the open stance even more extreme). He does close it up to pretty straightaway as the pitcher is getting ready to deliver though. He looks like he's swinging very hard, which I don't know if anyone does with any left shoulder thing. I hope he's not "playing through" anything and is just off to a bit of a slow start. Need his bat.
Yeah, I imagine they're going to let Reyes play some SS for now before they move Ceddanne off CF, but if Reyes can't handle that assignment we're going to get more Abreu. I think he's a much, much better player than he's shown in these first few games. The patience has been there but he's whiffing a ton on bad pitches and looks like he's rushing everything. Once he settles down he'll be fine.
I think that's part of an adjustment he talked about, that's designed to keep his hands lower through the swing.
Ah, interesting. Thanks (also to @AlZarilla) for the insight. Happy that it doesn’t seem injury related.
They are kind of stuck with Abreu, at least until Refsnyder is ready. There aren’t any other outfielders on the 40-man. I get why he may be pressing but doesn’t seem like his job is likely in any immediate jeopardy. There aren’t really any OF in AAA that seem worth making a move for, so unless they acquire someone outside the org I think Abreu is here for a bit.
IIRC RFsnyder is expected to miss most if not all of the first month of the season, so yeah Abreu's not going anywhere for a while. Depending on the particular game situation they can put Yoshida in LF on occasion and God forbid in an "break glass in case of emergency" situation they can put Dalbec in right.
Edit... I see that Gonzales has limited MLB experience in the OF. I've no idea what sort of glove he has out there, but if he's called up to take Story's slot he might be another OF option if/when needed.
Last edited:
Of course, the irony is that Rafaela accounts for two of the errors committed in the last two games. One was a bit of hard luck trying to clean up an Abreu misplay, but the one last night is inexcusable and it led to a big inning for the Angels. He's got great instincts and abilities, but he's prone to mistakes just like the rest.
It'll certainly lead to fewer chances which will probably (in the early going) keep the defensive metrics unreliable for a longer period of time.
Currently, despite having the most innings pitched (by a whisker), we have the lowest WHIP, and so are in middle of the pack for batters faced.
I've always wanted to meet someone who was psychic.
Share with the rest of us and tell us who it will be and for how long?
One look into my crystal ball and I can see many more dick-ish posts in your future, but that doesn't take a psychic. Congrats on being so anally literal that you've prolapsed everywhere.
Do we no longer back things up on the main board? Why not examine actual possibilities about who is likely to play SS, for how long, and what they're likely to do?
Or failing that, wait on some actual news before flailing about.
(Also, you should see someone about your fixation. It sounds unhealthy.)
I mean, if you want to cosplay as the hall monitor feel free, or if you want my thoughts on the SS options in the organization should Story be out long term go ahead and ask.
I do too. They're competitive in every game at least.
1-0, 4-3, 2-1. On scores alone, I'd tend to blame the offense for below average run production. Watching the games, one would probably blame the pitching/defense for two out of the three. It's a bit of everything.
Dalbec heading in the right direction as while he went 0-2 last night, only one of those outs was a strikeout.
JD Davis. Opportunity missed.
View: https://twitter.com/BrightSideSox/status/1776794513006071981?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
JD Davis. Opportunity missed.
View: https://twitter.com/BrightSideSox/status/1776794513006071981?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Last edited:
Offense is concerning. Rafaela is now at a 6% bb, 28% k rate. Valdez 0 walks and 27% k. Yoshida not showing any pop. With the obvious caveat that it’s super early, this wasn’t a great offensive team last year- especially on the road and lost several key pieces. If Devers and Casas aren’t mashing, scoring runs is going to be challenging.
I really liked Pablo last year but he's been garbage this year, every part of his game looks slow. Failing to get the out at 2nd in the 6th on a routine play cost them the game, and there was another play just like that earlier on where he barely got the runner.
After last year I couldn't imagine ever hoping for a Hamilton start, but here we are.
After last year I couldn't imagine ever hoping for a Hamilton start, but here we are.