JD Davis wasn't coming to Boston to be a back-up. Can't miss an opportunity that didn't exist.
March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins
- Thread starter YTF
- Start date
Plus, it was the Oakland A’s. Kind of impossible to compete with the opportunity to play for that team!
Dalbec, OTOH, is taking what could reasonably be considered his final opportunity with the Sox and launching it into interstellar space.
JD Davis would not have picked being a backup in Boston over starting in Oakland, that’s true. But before he even became a FA, the Giants tried to trade him and found no takers. All it would have required was taking on his 6.9 mil salary. The Red Sox chose staying 28.5 mil under the tax instead of being 21.5 mil under the tax and having a 31 year old bench RH bench bat with a career OPS+ of 114 who could play 1B, 3B, and LF.
In a burst of optimism, I'm thinking maybe they left some extra money under the line to address needs that manifest themselves.
You think the Red Sox should have taken on a $6.9M salary for their back-up corner infielder? Someone that, if all goes well, might play 40-50 games tops? I don't care what the payroll budget might be, that's overspending for that particular position.
Yes. Because the goal is to have the most wins, not the most efficient spending. 7 mil for a good 250 PA guy does not blow up the salary structure. They could have helped their team, had a pretty nice insurance policy in case any corner guy got hurt, and not incurred any tax penalties. Next time Bobby Dalbec strikes out (which is to say, next time he comes up to bat), I’ll take comfort knowing that he’s doing so for $6 million cheaper than JD Davis.
Davis crushing the ball in Oakland, BTW.
Last edited:
They didn’t need backups because all the starters were going to play 150+ games. They couldn’t acquire another OF because that would block Abreu. Those were the arguments. Now, Story is hurt and a few of the younger guys are scuffling, and there’s really not much the team can do because they don’t have the depth. It takes a lot of players to get through a major league season, it gets more difficult to find ones once the season has started.
You're right. The fuck were they thinking not signing/trading for major league starters to back up every position on the diamond? I mean, clearly they're the only team in the league that isn't five deep at every spot. Such cheap skates.
They have zero depth. They didn’t need a major league starter backing up every position, but they could have acquired an OF and started Abreu in the minors, for example. An upgrade over Reyes and Dalbec seems theoretically possible. Now, they are basically stuck with the roster they have. Seems like they could have done something.
Hopefully it doesn’t matter that much, and maybe it won’t if the pitching stays excellent.
I'm always agnostic about these things, but... yeah. Someone must be talking to Valdez, right, and being like, hey, everyone is throwing you stuff above the letters because they know you have no self-control right now?
It's one hundred percent possible that they HAVE had those conversations and the hitters are just too nervous or whatever, but man, Wilyer, Ceddanne and Valdez have all been black holes.
First of all, they aren't stuck with the roster they have. There's still plenty of unsigned guys, actually. Solano is available, so is Tommy Pham, as are a host of other guys. Abreu, Rafaela, Valdez, Romy Gonzalez, Hamilton, Grissom -- all of these guys are optionable.
But I'll be honest, I think it's far too early to hit the panic button. Just as pitchers make adjustments, so do hitters. Wilyer has all of 16 plate appearances, and I think a lot of people are feeling like he should be sent him down to AAA.
I think that's premature. He's a guy who proved his talent at AAA last year and came up and scorched the ball in limited time in the fall. If we sent down every rookie that had a rough start, we'd have demoted Triston Casas after a month last year, too. (yes, I know, Triston's peripherals were excellent last year, and that indicated he was due to bounce back, but let's at last wait until there's enough of a sample size to get a full accounting on these guys.) Besides, Wilyer isn't even starting.The team still has five outfielders if you count Yoshida. Why start Wilyer in AAA if he's proved everything he's got to prove?
Valdez has been awful, but he deserves more of a chance to adjust, too. A 102 wrc+ in the majors last year plus the improved defense makes him a potential trade chip if he can just get the bat right.
Which is to say adding Solano, adding Tommy Pham -- those guys want 450 plate appearances, and they're probably willing to take an extended spring training to see if some team can guarantee them that. We're not that team right now because the guys who are struggling deserve to get a shot to prove themselves.
“Why start Wilyer in AAA if he’s proved everything he’s got to prove”
I think the simple answer there is that you are likely going to need another OF no matter what, because of injuries….so if you sign another guy and start Abreu in the minors, you bring Abreu up when needed…if you don’t acquire someone and start Abreu in the bigs, then when someone gets hurt, you are left with like Dalton Guthrie or Mark Contreras or something. This probably applies to several positions on the roster. Granted you only have so many spots in the 40 man, but are they used optimally? I don’t think there’s much concern of sending Abreu (or Rafaela) down, at least not until Refsnyder is back, because there is literally nobody to call up.
I think the simple answer there is that you are likely going to need another OF no matter what, because of injuries….so if you sign another guy and start Abreu in the minors, you bring Abreu up when needed…if you don’t acquire someone and start Abreu in the bigs, then when someone gets hurt, you are left with like Dalton Guthrie or Mark Contreras or something. This probably applies to several positions on the roster. Granted you only have so many spots in the 40 man, but are they used optimally? I don’t think there’s much concern of sending Abreu (or Rafaela) down, at least not until Refsnyder is back, because there is literally nobody to call up.
Yeah, there's always that possibility of course, and guys will just run hot and cold as well. But at the end of the day you want a staff that can get through to guys to enable them to be productive. I'd add Rafaela and Yoshida to the mix of "need to get back on track."
There's also the issue of talking about this 9 on 1 concept, but seeing very little of it thusfar. There have been plenty of 1-2-3 innings against good staters, plus non-competetive at bats. The overall results have been dead average for the AL by OPS, OPS+, Runs Scored, etc. We've left the 3rd most men on base, but the spread isn't much this early in the season. But everyone in their neighborhood for LOB (or more) have also scored more runs (with the exception of Houston and Oakland.)
SSS applies in spades thusfar.
Refsnyder is the answer here. They're not going to sign an OF and send them to extended spring training to come in after Refsnyder is available.
Oh, I agree. I don’t think signing a FA now makes any sense. They will make do with what they have until Refsnyder is back.
The other side of that coin is seeing teams that are loathe to cut bait on guys with major league deals in favor of guys with options. So, if the hypothetical free agent is underperforming or cooked and Abreu is mashing at AAA, there's no great path to getting Abreu in the lineup.
So today the opening West Coast road trip ended with the Sox at 7 and 3.
This is about as good an outcome as could reasonably have been hoped for (although they could easily have won another game.)
It's a good time to be a Red Sox fan.
-Offense was uneven, but not absent.
-Starting pitching was excellent, as was the bullpen.
-Defense was much improved, though a few glitches remained.
This is about as good an outcome as could reasonably have been hoped for (although they could easily have won another game.)
It's a good time to be a Red Sox fan.
Gotta agree with that analysis... 7-3 is just the kind of start this team needed to get some momentum going. The pitching has been wonderful to watch, particularly after the last two years.
Run differential is tied for second best in the majors, and we scored the third most runs in the AL so far. While we lost a couple of low scoring one-run games, the offense was fine.
Great start. Houck actually went a third time through without a bomb going off.
Story will be missed.
Breslow's bullpen acquisitions look REALLY good.
Starting pitching better - still not pitching enough innings.
The offense is as much a question mark as the starting pitching - didn't see that coming really. Duran is making my doubts look idiotic.
Impossible not to see this start as anything but positive. Four games over .500 this early is pretty cool since 10 games over might get you to the playoffs.
Story will be missed.
Breslow's bullpen acquisitions look REALLY good.
Starting pitching better - still not pitching enough innings.
The offense is as much a question mark as the starting pitching - didn't see that coming really. Duran is making my doubts look idiotic.
Impossible not to see this start as anything but positive. Four games over .500 this early is pretty cool since 10 games over might get you to the playoffs.
Disagree that they aren’t pitching enough innings. Starters are 5th in the league in IP, and one of the teams ahead of them is the Padres who have played 12 games. 53 innings by the rotation in ten games is good enough if they can keep that pace all season
I think some concern is still warranted. They were all excellent the first time through the rotation, but everyone except Houck also regressed a bit the 2nd. Really need to get that 5 inning minimum solid going forward and even extend it a bit.
Going forward, IMO, the total wont be as important as the distribution. 5.1 or 5.2 average is great these days. But if *every* starter pitches 5.1 or 5.2, its going to kill the bullpen. They need 1 or 2 to go 6-plus every 5 days.
The first handful of times thru is like an extension of ST where they are still building up to some extent. I don’t necessarily think it’s about the amount of innings as it is the amount of pitches thrown, so hopefully with some more efficiency and time elapsed and nicer weather, we will see them get thru 6-7 more often. Houck did throw 99 yesterday to get thru 6
I think this is a good point. I also think that as we've seen for more that a few years now pitch count will dictate the number of innings pitch. Eventually pitchers will get to the point where they can look at 95-100 pitches being the limit rather than 85ish and at times it will be a tick above 100 pitches. But it's how efficient, i.e. how deep they can go within that limit that is going to help with that "distribution". I always point to Eduardo Rodriguez as a perfect example of this. I love E Rod, but it seemed that more often than not he would struggle to get through 5 innings without pushing that 100 pitch limit. It's going to happen from time to time, not every pitcher has his best stuff every time out or sometimes it takes an inning or two before things click, like with Houck yesterday, but finding ways to keep that pitch count down in the early innings will go a long toward pitches getting into the 6th inning and beyond. Also, yesterday was a prime example of what a guy like Anderson can do for you. In a blow out game (either way) Anderson can come in and pitch 3-4 innings and save a pen. He threw 68 pitches over three innings and in doing so gave the rest of the pen two days off. That pretty much has the same effect on a pitching staff as a complete game. Injuries aside, come Tuesday Anderson is likely to be the only guy who's unavailable out of the pen and I think we're all more than OK with that.
I think the fact that guys haven't been home for 6 weeks could be playing into this too. For the younger players that must feel like an eternity.
The team has now committed two or more errors in 4 of 11 games. They're coming in bunches and it's getting ugly. Besides Ceddanne, O'Neil, and Casas it could be argued that they're below average everywhere else on the field. Breslow has his work cut out for him.
To be fair, Wong is an excellent defensive catcher and McGuire is a little above average (at least in terms of dWAR on bbRef).
While yesterday's error was ugly, I do think one needs to give Duran a bit more time in LF before making an argument one way or the other.
Regarding Devers, Valdez, and the Reyes / Hamilton show at SS, and seemingly any time Yoshida or Abreu have to play the field, you're right however. It's why I'd really like to see them go out and acquire some manner of very good glove SS.
The offense had major question marks coming into the year - and they're still there - but I really think shoring up the SS defense (likely from outside the organization) needs to be a priority if they want to have any real shot at serious contention for WC3 as the schedule toughens up and they have to play good teams.
Sure, the position switch should buy him some time before making any final judgement, but we've seen plenty from him in the field and he's prone to gaffs and seems to lack much in the way of instinct - it's certainly not athleticism holding him back. People were blaming the sun for his drop yesterday, but what I saw was the classic didn't look the ball into the glove lapse. I suppose he could become average with more experience in left, but I'm not holding my breath.
Here's what he had to say about the play:
Honestly, this quote is baffling and speaks to his defensive instincts. He was there and simply dropped it. Not sure why he thinks a couple more steps helps him make the play.
I had a perfect view of his gaffe yesterday from my RF box seat. Although the sun was a bit weird over there at that time of day, he just muffed it. Took his eye off at last second. His comments after the game confirm as much. He knows that is a ball he definitely should have caught, and it really did change the momentum of a close game to that point.
Yeah, I have no earthly idea if/how much the sun may have played into that error, but he was moving from sun into shadow just as he was about to catch the ball.
Duran and Rafaela and O'Neill has been pretty great, actually -- besides those two gaffes there's also been a host of layout grabs -- at least 3 or 4? And several others excellent running grabs. I also think Abreu is better than that dumb error he made the other night.
As for the infield defense... I think Devers has been a disaster and will continue to be a disaster. Hamilton is not gonna work out there, I don't think, but Romy is apparently at least average, according to SoxProspects. Valdez has been basically fine, and Casas has been really, really solid over at first. I think the defense has been above average in general. But if SS is going to continue to be shaky like it's been since Story went down, something will need to change.
I think before they go out and get another SS they're going to try to see if Romy work out (Grissom, probably too). But we don't want that to go on for too long if these guys prove to be disasters.
Luckily O'Neill going supernova is doing a lot to make up for the fact that Story is gone for the rest of the year. And I still like this team a lot despite the spate of bad news. Lots of teams are having players go down, the fact that the Sox have lost Pivetta and Story and Giolito sucks but it's not really worse than other teams have had to deal with. The pitching staff continues to be pretty tremendous so far, which is wild given how much pessimism there was about it.
As for the infield defense... I think Devers has been a disaster and will continue to be a disaster. Hamilton is not gonna work out there, I don't think, but Romy is apparently at least average, according to SoxProspects. Valdez has been basically fine, and Casas has been really, really solid over at first. I think the defense has been above average in general. But if SS is going to continue to be shaky like it's been since Story went down, something will need to change.
I think before they go out and get another SS they're going to try to see if Romy work out (Grissom, probably too). But we don't want that to go on for too long if these guys prove to be disasters.
Luckily O'Neill going supernova is doing a lot to make up for the fact that Story is gone for the rest of the year. And I still like this team a lot despite the spate of bad news. Lots of teams are having players go down, the fact that the Sox have lost Pivetta and Story and Giolito sucks but it's not really worse than other teams have had to deal with. The pitching staff continues to be pretty tremendous so far, which is wild given how much pessimism there was about it.
I agree with this, if for no other reason than trying to find a clear upgrade to Hamilton/Gonzalez/Reyes/Grissom/etc right now is going to be hard. Anyone who's available right now is unlikely to be an upgrade. The guys who would be an upgrade won't be easily acquired because they're already starting elsewhere and will probably cost more than they're worth just to pry them away from their current teams this early in the year. Now come June or July, that might be a different story. By then, we'll know whether any of the in-house guys (or a combination) can satisfactorily cover SS.
This is still the same bad baseball team we had last year. Same bad defense(league leaders in errors and unearned runs) and same bullpen issues are costing this team games. Mental mistakes like dropped pop flies and not stepping on 2nd base turning a double play continue to cost them. There are a few bright spots, but overall the issues that plagued them last year are still issues this year.
It's really difficult to see this team lose these past three games in the fashion in which they lost. Poor defense played a role in all of them as did some difficulties out of the bullpen. Baltimore looks to be every bit as good as they were last year if not better, but you can't implode like this against anyone. This team has some faults, we knew that going into the season and the injury bug has bitten early and hard, but they have to find a way to clean up the way they are playing. I do believe that they need to see exactly what MI solutions they have in house before looking outside of the organization for help and I think that's going to take a few more games. Romy's injury doesn't help as I think the idea was to try to see what he and Hamilton might be able to offer. Hamilton's missing second base last night doesn't show up in the box score as an error, but it was costly. That said there are a slew of MI in the league that could have done the same thing and it would be an "oh well, shit happens moment", but that's not the case here. I think we're looking at least until after the Angel's series before we know the status of Romy. Dever's being hurt compounds the problem. If he is slow to return, (I know that he expects to be back) we could be looking at Reyes, Hamilton and Valdez in the lineup at times. I think/hope that we see Rafaela getting more time in the infield if Devers is out again and at this point I think he needs to be playing SS. I understand that it's difficult to see what the other guys can give you at short if they are not playing there, but at this point you need to try to right the ship and try to not only win games, but to also try to avoid giving your opponents extra outs which is going to affect the way that you use a pitching staff that that is trying to stay ahead of it's own issues.
Last edited:
14 unearned runs in 13 games by my count. Absolute disasterclass in the field, yet again.
The same issues remain re: starting pitchers not going deep into games, which results in Cora using 5 relievers every night. The more relievers you use each game, the higher a chance to get a guy who simply doesn't have his stuff that particular night. And that has bit them in the ass in each of the past three games where the relievers have gotten lit up.
Nothing has changed from 2023.
To my eyes, Hamilton rushed the play because his arm is weak af. He's simply not a major league SS and continuing to put him out there as such is a massive disservice to pitching staff. I think the resistance to putting Ceddanne at SS makes sense on paper, but we've reached a smash glass in case of emergency situation. I do find it a bit bizarre that he's getting innings at 2B now with Cora's stated resistance to putting him at SS. Some innings at 2B is ok, but there will be too much pressure for him at SS where he might be a plus plus defender? And honestly, the kid is obviously already feeling the pressure. His ABs are not competitive and he can't possibly get much worse. A non-competitive, game ruining, staff killing infield, or a down graded but at least competent OF?
Team looks very different to me. Starting pitching FIP is third in baseball. They are 10th in innings pitched by starting pitching.
The pen is 15th in FIP - though SSS and very effected by the disaster last night.
The offense was good last year and at this point they are 19th in RC+ and 18th in OPS.
Each of the last three games has resulted in the pen getting destroyed at some point because one reliever came in and had nothing. If they want to win games then the starters will need to start going more than 5 innings.
We knew this would be an issue for them given the guys they had in the rotation.
We already have two losses that would have been wins if Story was still playing SS. It's ... disheartening. And can someone remind me what we saw in Pablo Reyes last year, because he hasn't looked like a Major Leaguer at any point thus far.
Yeah, I'm not panicking, as fun and exciting as that might be.
Let's look at the facts. They're still over .500, and yes, they lost three in a row to a team that won 100 games last year (despite hanging in there for most of those games), and that had a lot to do with the defense... but the defensive issues can be solved in my eye by moving Rafaela to SS for the time being and demoting Hamilton when Grissom comes back.
Campbell is a good pitcher and will be for a long time. He's given up 2 home runs in six innings after giving up 2 all of last year. He's better than he's shown, so is Martin.
If you want to argue the bullpen can't handle that load, then I don't know about that either. They're leading the league in blown saves right now, but there's two things there: one, they've lost highly winnable games they can win later and (2) that's largely been on the defense, as far as I can tell. Team ERA is still 2.36. Last couple games are definitely an exception, to an extent: Campbell and Martin couldn't clean up, but Campbell also would've been out of the inning if Hamilton could've just put his stupid foot on the bag, for example.
Now, is the defense gonna be a permanent issue? That's a legitimate concern. I think we've seen way too many bad gaffes. Get Hamilton of SS pronto and that should solve a lot of our issues. The outfield I think will be okay. Rafaela, Duran, and Abreu have all made dumb mistakes, but I hope they're just getting their early-season yah-yahs out. Two of them are rookies, after all.
(We've also seen the Orioles make a couple of really dumb plays out in the field too -- we just didn't punish them for it.)
Let's look at the facts. They're still over .500, and yes, they lost three in a row to a team that won 100 games last year (despite hanging in there for most of those games), and that had a lot to do with the defense... but the defensive issues can be solved in my eye by moving Rafaela to SS for the time being and demoting Hamilton when Grissom comes back.
Campbell is a good pitcher and will be for a long time. He's given up 2 home runs in six innings after giving up 2 all of last year. He's better than he's shown, so is Martin.
This is not really born out by the facts. It's a problem baseball wide. As someone pointed out in another thread, the Sox are actually in the top third of teams in average starting pitcher innings (we're tied for 7th with 4 other teams, at 5.3) We watch the Sox, so we assume it's a Sox-only issue, but in fact everybody's struggling to get their starters to go long into games.
If you want to argue the bullpen can't handle that load, then I don't know about that either. They're leading the league in blown saves right now, but there's two things there: one, they've lost highly winnable games they can win later and (2) that's largely been on the defense, as far as I can tell. Team ERA is still 2.36. Last couple games are definitely an exception, to an extent: Campbell and Martin couldn't clean up, but Campbell also would've been out of the inning if Hamilton could've just put his stupid foot on the bag, for example.
Now, is the defense gonna be a permanent issue? That's a legitimate concern. I think we've seen way too many bad gaffes. Get Hamilton of SS pronto and that should solve a lot of our issues. The outfield I think will be okay. Rafaela, Duran, and Abreu have all made dumb mistakes, but I hope they're just getting their early-season yah-yahs out. Two of them are rookies, after all.
(We've also seen the Orioles make a couple of really dumb plays out in the field too -- we just didn't punish them for it.)
Bello was at 52 pitches in the fifth when Duran's error extended the inning. If Duran makes the play Bello probably goes 7.
Again Boston is better than average in IP by starters.
Team ERA doesn't mean much when they've allowed 14 unearned runs in 13 games. And while the defense has a lot to do with that, the pitching isn't innocent: yes, Hamilton should have turned the DP but Weissert could have done something else besides allow a bomb on his very first pitch.
Pitchers have to be able to pitch around and out of trouble and the Red Sox relievers have always found the one guy who hasn't been able to do that. Campbell doesn't allow 6 runs in the 10th if Hamilton can get his foot on the bag, but then again Campbell could always not get absolutely torched either. Martin wasn't helped the day before by the catcher's interference but then again he didn't HAVE to allow a bomb as well.
I don't see it as a zero-sum game. The relievers have been coughing up games. The defense is terrible. These are the same issues that plagued them last year. I don't think the average length of a starter's appearance throughout the league will remain so low as the season goes on. The Sox need their starters to go deeper so that Cora doesn't have to play Russian Roulette with this bullpen and isn't forced to use Isaiah Campbell in any sort of close game.
The last three games have been exactly the way they lost games last year and I'm sure everyone here is pretty sick of the same old problems. They don't seem to be able to improve their weaknesses. We knew they were thin on depth going into the season and with Story out their lack of depth is clear for all to see. it's incredibly frustrating to watch as a fan; it's reasonable to expect the team should be addressing these issues.
Last edited:
Yeah...Bello is their best pitcher. I don't have a lot of faith in the rest of the guys going 6+ so I don't think SJH is off here.
To the extent this is a leaguewide issue, one thing you would think more teams would be developing, especially smart teams like the Red Sox, since the change in starters going deep are the sort of classic "swingman" role. Guys who can go once through the order, 2-3 IP, 2-3 times a week and fill the gap between the 5th and the 8th or 9th without using everyone in your pen. Michael King did this last year for the Yankees, but by the end of the year he was more of a starter. Maybe there is evidence that these guys are going to blow their arms out or teams just can't find them but it would seem like that kind of player would be insanely valuable especially if you can get more than one on your roster. For a long time we tried to fit players into either starter or short relief buckets, and long relievers would always just be failed starters -- what if there are guys who are best somewhere in the middle? But it seems like we're still just developing one or the other, except now starters are only going 2X through the order, and like SJH says we have to use 4 or 5 relievers every night to get through the game, greatly increasing the chance that one will not be good that night.
God I feel like an old crank, but I do think the leaguewide fear about letting starters go through the order for a 3rd time has swung much too far. Batters grind out ABs and try to draw walks and every batter has HR power now, so pitchers are more careful and thus throw more pitches to get through 5 innings. It's not a workable situation long term because as starters get pulled earlier and earlier, the 9th, 10th and 1tth men on the pitching staffs start seeing valuable innings. And that leads to pain.
This isn't a problem specific to the Sox but I do think long term it's making for an objectively worse product and game. The Sox would be well served by figuring out how to get their starters (who presumably are their best pitchers) to eat more innings. The "easy" solution would be pitching to contact but of course the Sox defense is an abomination in the sight of the Lord so that's a losing strategy here.
This isn't a problem specific to the Sox but I do think long term it's making for an objectively worse product and game. The Sox would be well served by figuring out how to get their starters (who presumably are their best pitchers) to eat more innings. The "easy" solution would be pitching to contact but of course the Sox defense is an abomination in the sight of the Lord so that's a losing strategy here.
Each of these games was something of a gut punch, but I actually leave the series feeling pretty optimistic. I totally agree that Story — the one position player who absolutely *could not* get hurt — getting hurt makes the defensive issues with the roster pretty glaring, but still... the rotation held its own against a pretty great offense.
We have a ton of position player talent in Portland and Greenville, including a not-especially-heralded 4th-round pick in Kristian Campbell, said to be hit-over-power when we drafted him, who just hit a 450-ft HR with a higher EV than any ball the Boston Red Sox hit last season. He looks to be this year's Roman Anthony. We could plausibly end the year with between five and seven top-100 guys — all of whom would be position players (Anthony, Mayer, Teel, Campbell, Bleis, Cespedes, Yorke), although I'm a touch bearish on Yorke. And unlike the Orioles' group currently kicking our ass, that group wasn't built on just top-five overall picks.
The last time we had this kind of wave was 2014-15, and that group turned into the best Red Sox team of all time. But because that group was all position players (and Matt Barnes), we had to sign unsustainable devil's bargains with outside pitchers that put us in the position we've been in for the last few years.
We appear to have a repeatable skill to turn so-so draft capital and moderate IFA allotments into high end position-player talent. If we can also make Kutter Crawford-types into viable starting pitchers now, the near future is very bright.