March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

[nvalvo]

To the extent this is a leaguewide issue, one thing you would think more teams would be developing, especially smart teams like the Red Sox, since the change in starters going deep are the sort of classic "swingman" role. Guys who can go once through the order, 2-3 IP, 2-3 times a week and fill the gap between the 5th and the 8th or 9th without using everyone in your pen. Michael King did this last year for the Yankees, but by the end of the year he was more of a starter. Maybe there is evidence that these guys are going to blow their arms out or teams just can't find them but it would seem like that kind of player would be insanely valuable especially if you can get more than one on your roster. For a long time we tried to fit players into either starter or short relief buckets, and long relievers would always just be failed starters -- what if there are guys who are best somewhere in the middle? But it seems like we're still just developing one or the other, except now starters are only going 2X through the order, and like SJH says we have to use 4 or 5 relievers every night to get through the game, greatly increasing the chance that one will not be good that night.

I was saying this offseason that I want us to elaborate a new relief role: guys who face exactly 9 hitters. These guys should be easy to collect, because while they need stamina to go multiple innings and some sort of approach to lefties and righties, they don't necessarily need the full repertoire that a starter would need. It could also be a good role for breaking in young candidates for the rotation.

But instead of having one, they'd be fully half of your bullpen. You'd have a 13-man pitching staff with a 5-man starting rotation, and then four of these once-through-the-lineup guys, and four short relievers: two firemen, specialists in getting hot fast and coming in with men on, and two late-inning guys, set up and closer. The idea would be that your starters will often only be getting the lineup twice, so everyday you'd have at least one (or ideally two) of these guys in the pen adequately rested to take one turn through the lineup and aim to bridge you from your starters to your late-inning guys.

With our current staff, this would break down something like this. Obviously the innings allotments are per roster spot, not per pitcher; there will be injuries and depth called up to soak some of that up:

SP – ~32 games/rotation slot; 160 IP/slot
Bello
Crawford
Pivetta
Houck
Whitlock

Firemen – ~80 appearances averaging < 1 IP; 60 IP/slot
Weissert
Rodriguez

Once-Through-the-Lineup – ~40 appearances, averaging > 2 IP; 100 IP/slot
Winckowski
Slaten
Bernardino
Anderson

CL/SU Single-Inning Guys – 70 appearances x 1 IP; 70 IP/slot
Jansen
Martin

That sums to 1460 IP, or an average of almost exactly 9 IP per game — hopefully the ninth innings not pitched in road losses counteract the extra innings pitched in ties.

So if Crawford goes 4 1/3 or something, then one of the firemen (say, Weissert) comes in to wrap up the fifth, before Winckowski or Slaten (or whoever is up in the rotation) comes in and faces 9 guys, which hopefully gets us through the 6th and 7th. Then it's Martin in the 8th and Kenley in the 9th if we're ahead by a few runs, and whichever of Winck and Slaten didn't already pitch if we aren't.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I was saying this offseason that I want us to elaborate a new relief role: guys who face exactly 9 hitters. These guys should be easy to collect, because while they need stamina to go multiple innings and some sort of approach to lefties and righties, they don't necessarily need the full repertoire that a starter would need. It could also be a good role for breaking in young candidates for the rotation.

But instead of having one, they'd be fully half of your bullpen. You'd have a 13-man pitching staff with a 5-man starting rotation, and then four of these once-through-the-lineup guys, and four short relievers: two firemen, specialists in getting hot fast and coming in with men on, and two late-inning guys, set up and closer. The idea would be that your starters will often only be getting the lineup twice, so everyday you'd have at least one (or ideally two) of these guys in the pen adequately rested to take one turn through the lineup and aim to bridge you from your starters to your late-inning guys.

With our current staff, this would break down something like this. Obviously the innings allotments are per roster spot, not per pitcher; there will be injuries and depth called up to soak some of that up:

SP – ~32 games/rotation slot; 160 IP/slot
Bello
Crawford
Pivetta
Houck
Whitlock

Firemen – ~80 appearances averaging < 1 IP; 60 IP/slot
Weissert
Rodriguez

Once-Through-the-Lineup – ~40 appearances, averaging > 2 IP; 100 IP/slot
Winckowski
Slaten
Bernardino
Anderson

CL/SU Single-Inning Guys – 70 appearances x 1 IP; 70 IP/slot
Jansen
Martin

That sums to 1460 IP, or an average of almost exactly 9 IP per game — hopefully the ninth innings not pitched in road losses counteract the extra innings pitched in ties.

So if Crawford goes 4 1/3 or something, then one of the firemen (say, Weissert) comes in to wrap up the fifth, before Winckowski or Slaten (or whoever is up in the rotation) comes in and faces 9 guys, which hopefully gets us through the 6th and 7th. Then it's Martin in the 8th and Kenley in the 9th if we're ahead by a few runs, and whichever of Winck and Slaten didn't already pitch if we aren't.

It seems to be so obvious that there just MUST be something wrong with it... right? Seriously though it's been discussed around here for a while that it's baffling why it hasn't been implemented. All across the league starters go 5 innings and toss 4 innings to a bullpen that all pitch one inning. Just seems like terrible strategy. So... likely none of us are smarter than any ML management team or GM.... why isn't this happening? Is baseball just so inherently conservative that they won't adapt?

 

[RedOctober3829]

I was saying this offseason that I want us to elaborate a new relief role: guys who face exactly 9 hitters. These guys should be easy to collect, because while they need stamina to go multiple innings and some sort of approach to lefties and righties, they don't necessarily need the full repertoire that a starter would need. It could also be a good role for breaking in young candidates for the rotation.

But instead of having one, they'd be fully half of your bullpen. You'd have a 13-man pitching staff with a 5-man starting rotation, and then four of these once-through-the-lineup guys, and four short relievers: two firemen, specialists in getting hot fast and coming in with men on, and two late-inning guys, set up and closer. The idea would be that your starters will often only be getting the lineup twice, so everyday you'd have at least one (or ideally two) of these guys in the pen adequately rested to take one turn through the lineup and aim to bridge you from your starters to your late-inning guys.

With our current staff, this would break down something like this. Obviously the innings allotments are per roster spot, not per pitcher; there will be injuries and depth called up to soak some of that up:

SP – ~32 games/rotation slot; 160 IP/slot
Bello
Crawford
Pivetta
Houck
Whitlock

Firemen – ~80 appearances averaging < 1 IP; 60 IP/slot
Weissert
Rodriguez

Once-Through-the-Lineup – ~40 appearances, averaging > 2 IP; 100 IP/slot
Winckowski
Slaten
Bernardino
Anderson

CL/SU Single-Inning Guys – 70 appearances x 1 IP; 70 IP/slot
Jansen
Martin

That sums to 1460 IP, or an average of almost exactly 9 IP per game — hopefully the ninth innings not pitched in road losses counteract the extra innings pitched in ties.

So if Crawford goes 4 1/3 or something, then one of the firemen (say, Weissert) comes in to wrap up the fifth, before Winckowski or Slaten (or whoever is up in the rotation) comes in and faces 9 guys, which hopefully gets us through the 6th and 7th. Then it's Martin in the 8th and Kenley in the 9th if we're ahead by a few runs, and whichever of Winck and Slaten didn't already pitch if we aren't.

That is assuming that a lot goes right for a lot of pitchers. Lots of moving parts. What would be a lot easier if the starters could go even 6 innings per start leaving 9 outs to get. Only getting 5 innings per starter is a surefire way to wear out a bullpen by late June-July. Starters need to go deeper into games for a team to be successful.

 

[The Filthy One]

It's been a mixed bag so far, with encouraging results from the starting pitchers, some up-and-down bullpen performance, and a frankly pretty poor showing offensively. While the team could have and probably should have added more pitching depth, I'm not entirely sure how you weather two of your top three position players being hurt. If Devers isn't able to play 145+ games this year, the team is likely looking at poor outcomes no matter what happens. Running out lineups with Romy Gonzalez hitting 5th and Pablo Reyes hitting 6th is not a recipe for success. The path to contention is a healthy Devers, a healthy and productive Grissom, and then finding some stability at short. Right now, the Devers piece seems the most problematic to me. There are scrap-heap shortstops who can probably bring defensive competence, if not greatness, but there is absolutely no path to replacing the offensive production Devers is supposed to provide.

 

[Toe Nash]

And unlike the Orioles' group currently kicking our ass, that group wasn't built on just top-five overall picks.

I see this a fair amount and gotta call it out. This describes Rutschman, Holliday, Kjerstad and Cowser, the latter three of whom haven't done much yet, but the Orioles have also nailed lots of later picks. The Red Sox could have taken Westburg instead of Yorke. Coby Mayo (current 24th overall prospect according to FG) was a 4th round pick. So was Joey Ortiz who they dealt in the Corbin Burnes deal. Basallo was an international signing. Plus the Sox' best prospect was top 5 so this really seems like sour grapes.

The Orioles are a wagon and it wasn't just because they were terrible for a few years. They won 100 games last year only getting contributions from one top 5 pick and have done an insanely good job in drafting and scouting. Elias and Mejdal would have had success anywhere.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It seems to be so obvious that there just MUST be something wrong with it... right? Seriously though it's been discussed around here for a while that it's baffling why it hasn't been implemented. All across the league starters go 5 innings and toss 4 innings to a bullpen that all pitch one inning. Just seems like terrible strategy. So... likely none of us are smarter than any ML management team or GM.... why isn't this happening? Is baseball just so inherently conservative that they won't adapt?

The problem with having a bunch of long "once through the lineup" relievers is what happens when one or more of them just doesn't have it for a game? It looks nice on paper to have 3-4 of those guys available, but what happens when (using nvalvo's list) Winckowski covers three innings on 41 pitches one night, Slaten covers two the next day but struggles a bit throwing 45 pitches, and then Anderson gets blown up for 6 hits and 5 runs on 35 pitches and only gets two outs? Now you're burning more guys than planned to cover for him and likely going to be short-handed the next day or two also (no Winck, no Slaten, no Anderson).

I think the philosophy of having a bunch of one inning guys is that it's a faster bounce-back for them to be available again since they're not throwing a lot in any given appearance (usually <20 pitches). They can go back-to-back days on occasion if the need arises. Not really possible for the guys going multiple innings at a time.

I don't think it's a matter of teams being conservative that prevents a new approach so much as it's going to require a wholesale change in how pitchers operate and prepare. You've got a ton of relievers pitchers who have been conditioned to throw 15-20 pitches at a time (when things go well). I don't think there are as many readily available pitchers who can fill that "once through the order" role as capably as it would appear on paper.

 

[Cassvt2023]

It seems to be so obvious that there just MUST be something wrong with it... right? Seriously though it's been discussed around here for a while that it's baffling why it hasn't been implemented. All across the league starters go 5 innings and toss 4 innings to a bullpen that all pitch one inning. Just seems like terrible strategy. So... likely none of us are smarter than any ML management team or GM.... why isn't this happening? Is baseball just so inherently conservative that they won't adapt?

I suggested something along these lines way back in the offseason on here and was promptly destroyed for it by a few posters. My theory, which i read somewhere that I can't remember a quite a few years ago, was that the MLBPA would never go for it because your starters, who are presumably your best pitchers, would get very few of the stats that they are accustomed to when it comes to arbitration and free agency, among other things.

 

[Frisbetarian]

Team ERA doesn't mean much when they've allowed 14 unearned runs in 13 games. And while the defense has a lot to do with that, the pitching isn't innocent: yes, Hamilton should have turned the DP but Weissert could have done something else besides allow a bomb on his very first pitch.

Pitchers have to be able to pitch around and out of trouble and the Red Sox relievers have always found the one guy who hasn't been able to do that. Campbell doesn't allow 6 runs in the 10th if Hamilton can get his foot on the bag, but then again Campbell could always not get absolutely torched either. Martin wasn't helped the day before by the catcher's interference but then again he didn't HAVE to allow a bomb as well.

I don't see it as a zero-sum game. The relievers have been coughing up games. The defense is terrible. These are the same issues that plagued them last year. I don't think the average length of a starter's appearance throughout the league will remain so low as the season goes on. The Sox need their starters to go deeper so that Cora doesn't have to play Russian Roulette with this bullpen and isn't forced to use Isaiah Campbell in any sort of close game.

The last three games have been exactly the way they lost games last year and I'm sure everyone here is pretty sick of the same old problems. They don't seem to be able to improve their weaknesses. We knew they were thin on depth going into the season and with Story out their lack of depth is clear for all to see. it's incredibly frustrating to watch as a fan; it's reasonable to expect the team should be addressing these issues.

The Red Sox have actually allowed 15 (per Fangraphs) or 16 (per BR) unearned runs in 13 games, which equates to 32% or 34% of their runs allowed being unearned. FWIW, the MLB team average this year is 6 unearned runs and 10% of total runs. I'll try to find time to run the last 10 years to see if this is as bad as I suspect it is (while accounting for the runner on 2nd in extra innings unearned runs to make any comparisons fair).

 

[moondog80]

He's Baaaack!

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1778826458384724056?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

 

[Fishy1]

That is assuming that a lot goes right for a lot of pitchers. Lots of moving parts. What would be a lot easier if the starters could go even 6 innings per start leaving 9 outs to get. Only getting 5 innings per starter is a surefire way to wear out a bullpen by late June-July. Starters need to go deeper into games for a team to be successful.

That would be great, there's only one team in baseball averaging 6 innings per start, and three that are anywhere close. And for the record, in a full season last year, that leaderboard looked like this. The very best team in the league in innings per game started only got to 5.6.

As I said earlier in the thread, the Red Sox are tied for 7th in the entire league at 5.3, so they are almost in the top quartile on this. Half the league is averaging less than 5 innings per start.

This sort of stuff is pretty easy to look up if you care to: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-starter-pitching.shtml .

Again, I can't help thinking that because we only watch the Red Sox, and we are frustrated with them, we fail to see that these are issues teams almost universally across the league struggle with.

The Red Sox biggest issue, I maintain, is solidifying the defense right now, and I think they can mostly do it if they just bench Hamilton for the time-being, park Rafaela at SS, and move Duran or O'Neill to center, and let everyone else get comfortable. Reyes has been fine at 3rd in his career. The outfield will calm down. Devers will still suck, of course, when he gets back. I see how you can look at these last few games and think "the bullpen" sucks but the bullpen has largely been nails so long as the defense hasn't crumbled behind them. You give a team like the Orioles extra opportunities and they're going to take advantage.

On to the Angels. Feel like Yoshida and Abreu are about to break out.

 

[Puffy]

He's Baaaack!

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1778826458384724056?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

This makes sense, given both the walking wounded on the bench, but also the fact they are facing 2 lefties in the next 3 days. Let's hope Dalbec can mash.

 

[RedOctober3829]

That would be great, there's only one team in baseball averaging 6 innings per start, and three that are anywhere close. And for the record, in a full season last year, that leaderboard looked like this. The very best team in the league in innings per game started only got to 5.6.

As I said earlier in the thread, the Red Sox are tied for 7th in the entire league at 5.3, so they are almost in the top quartile on this. Half the league is averaging less than 5 innings per start.

This sort of stuff is pretty easy to look up if you care to: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-starter-pitching.shtml .

Again, I can't help thinking that because we only watch the Red Sox, and we are frustrated with them, we fail to see that these are issues teams almost universally across the league struggle with.

The Red Sox biggest issue, I maintain, is solidifying the defense right now, and I think they can mostly do it if they just bench Hamilton for the time-being, park Rafaela at SS, and move Duran or O'Neill to center, and let everyone else get comfortable. Reyes has been fine at 3rd in his career. The outfield will calm down. Devers will still suck, of course, when he gets back. I see how you can look at these last few games and think "the bullpen" sucks but the bullpen has largely been nails so long as the defense hasn't crumbled behind them. You give a team like the Orioles extra opportunities and they're going to take advantage.

On to the Angels. Feel like Yoshida and Abreu are about to break out.

It is a baseball-related problem than a Red Sox, I will grant you that. The whole max effort/spin rate phenomenon is ruining pitchers' arms from the youth level on up. It's a big problem. However, you do need a starter or two in the rotation that is able to both pitch quality/eat up innings to make up for the couple of starters who can't go more than 5. Relying on 4-5 relievers every day to be on their game because the starter only goes 5 is a very risky strategy. I can't get behind that sort of thinking.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The Red Sox biggest issue, I maintain, is solidifying the defense right now, and I think they can mostly do it if they just bench Hamilton for the time-being, park Rafaela at SS, and move Duran or O'Neill to center, and let everyone else get comfortable. Reyes has been fine at 3rd in his career. The outfield will calm down. Devers will still suck, of course, when he gets back. I see how you can look at these last few games and think "the bullpen" sucks but the bullpen has largely been nails so long as the defense hasn't crumbled behind them. You give a team like the Orioles extra opportunities and they're going to take advantage.

On to the Angels. Feel like Yoshida and Abreu are about to break out.

Devers seems to be better defensively when he's got a reliable SS next to him. If Rafaela is that guy for the time being, I think Devers can be okay at 3B (provided he's healthy). Overall I agree that the best course of action for the team is to get the defense locked down. Even with less than plus defenders at positions, I think guys can settle in and be passable. The last week since Story went down has just been weird, even for the guys who aren't seen as liabilities with the glove. I think they can shake it off and settle in with just a bit more consistency.

 

[nvalvo]

I see this a fair amount and gotta call it out. This describes Rutschman, Holliday, Kjerstad and Cowser, the latter three of whom haven't done much yet, but the Orioles have also nailed lots of later picks. The Red Sox could have taken Westburg instead of Yorke. Coby Mayo (current 24th overall prospect according to FG) was a 4th round pick. So was Joey Ortiz who they dealt in the Corbin Burnes deal. Basallo was an international signing. Plus the Sox' best prospect was top 5 so this really seems like sour grapes.

The Orioles are a wagon and it wasn't just because they were terrible for a few years. They won 100 games last year only getting contributions from one top 5 pick and have done an insanely good job in drafting and scouting. Elias and Mejdal would have had success anywhere.

Sorry if I made it seem more absolute than I really think it is, but I think the point stands. 1:1 is kind of a lot higher than 1:4. The bonus allotment is

Rutschman 1:1
Holliday 1:1
Kjerstad 1:2
Cowser 1:5
Grayson Rodriguez 1:11 (not a position player, but seems relevant)
Westburg 1:30
Mountcastle 1:36
Henderson 2:1
Basallo IFA 1.3m
Mayo 4
Ortiz 4

Versus our incoming set:
Mayer 1:4
Teel 1:4
Yorke 1:17
Anthony 2:comp
Bleis IFA 1.5m
Cespedes IFA 1.4m
Campbell 4:comp

You still have to hit on those high picks. Plenty of teams have had terrible stretches yielding high picks and *not* translated that into subsequent success; we had a couple 1:7s in recent memory that produced less than we'd have liked. But a pair of 1:1s and a 1:2 is a ton of draft capital. It's like ~$22m in bonus slot right there, or almost twice the combined bonus slots of the Sox top 3!

 

[nvalvo]

It seems to be so obvious that there just MUST be something wrong with it... right? Seriously though it's been discussed around here for a while that it's baffling why it hasn't been implemented. All across the league starters go 5 innings and toss 4 innings to a bullpen that all pitch one inning. Just seems like terrible strategy. So... likely none of us are smarter than any ML management team or GM.... why isn't this happening? Is baseball just so inherently conservative that they won't adapt?

Well, the problem would be what if you call on your one-time-through guy and he just has nothing. You have a lot of bad options at that point.

In other words:

The problem with having a bunch of long "once through the lineup" relievers is what happens when one or more of them just doesn't have it for a game? It looks nice on paper to have 3-4 of those guys available, but what happens when (using nvalvo's list) Winckowski covers three innings on 41 pitches one night, Slaten covers two the next day but struggles a bit throwing 45 pitches, and then Anderson gets blown up for 6 hits and 5 runs on 35 pitches and only gets two outs? Now you're burning more guys than planned to cover for him and likely going to be short-handed the next day or two also (no Winck, no Slaten, no Anderson).

I think the philosophy of having a bunch of one inning guys is that it's a faster bounce-back for them to be available again since they're not throwing a lot in any given appearance (usually <20 pitches). They can go back-to-back days on occasion if the need arises. Not really possible for the guys going multiple innings at a time.

I don't think it's a matter of teams being conservative that prevents a new approach so much as it's going to require a wholesale change in how pitchers operate and prepare. You've got a ton of relievers pitchers who have been conditioned to throw 15-20 pitches at a time (when things go well). I don't think there are as many readily available pitchers who can fill that "once through the order" role as capably as it would appear on paper.

To make this work, you'd probably need a lot of your one-time-through guys to have options and have a few similar guys on the 40-man in AAA doing something similar. Because a bad game like you describe (or a 14-inning game or something) could really trash your pen.

I also don't think it actually obviates the need for starters to at least sometimes go deep into games. You need to give that four-man rotation more off days than just the scheduled off days so that ideally you have two OTT guys available every day, assuming a minimum of two days' rest for each of them between appearances.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

Team ERA doesn't mean much when they've allowed 14 unearned runs in 13 games. And while the defense has a lot to do with that, the pitching isn't innocent: yes, Hamilton should have turned the DP but Weissert could have done something else besides allow a bomb on his very first pitch.

Pitchers have to be able to pitch around and out of trouble and the Red Sox relievers have always found the one guy who hasn't been able to do that. Campbell doesn't allow 6 runs in the 10th if Hamilton can get his foot on the bag, but then again Campbell could always not get absolutely torched either. Martin wasn't helped the day before by the catcher's interference but then again he didn't HAVE to allow a bomb as well.

I don't see it as a zero-sum game. The relievers have been coughing up games. The defense is terrible. These are the same issues that plagued them last year. I don't think the average length of a starter's appearance throughout the league will remain so low as the season goes on. The Sox need their starters to go deeper so that Cora doesn't have to play Russian Roulette with this bullpen and isn't forced to use Isaiah Campbell in any sort of close game.

The last three games have been exactly the way they lost games last year and I'm sure everyone here is pretty sick of the same old problems. They don't seem to be able to improve their weaknesses. We knew they were thin on depth going into the season and with Story out their lack of depth is clear for all to see. it's incredibly frustrating to watch as a fan; it's reasonable to expect the team should be addressing these issues.

Blaming Weissert for that home run last night isn't fair. He made a good pitch down and in. That was just great hitting by Santander, and 332 feet to right field is an out in many parks.

 

[normstalls]

Blaming Weissert for that home run last night isn't fair. He made a good pitch down and in. That was just great hitting by Santander, and 332 feet to right field is an out in many parks.

All but 2 to be exact (Fenway and The Toilet)

 

[InsideTheParker]

This makes sense, given both the walking wounded on the bench, but also the fact they are facing 2 lefties in the next 3 days. Let's hope Dalbec can mash.

Not possible. Spring training is over. (Make me look foolish, Bobby!)

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The Red Sox have actually allowed 15 (per Fangraphs) or 16 (per BR) unearned runs in 13 games, which equates to 32% or 34% of their runs allowed being unearned. FWIW, the MLB team average this year is 6 unearned runs and 10% of total runs. I'll try to find time to run the last 10 years to see if this is as bad as I suspect it is (while accounting for the runner on 2nd in extra innings unearned runs to make any comparisons fair).

3 more errors, 3 more unearned runs tonight. This is approaching historic incompetence.

Obviously this is an untenable situation.

 

[YTF]

I always try really hard to be objective when I look at this team. I try not to overreact one way or the other. I'm not as stats savvy as many of you are and I also think certain things need to play out a bit before we can make true assessments in certain situations. It's been my contention early on that Rafaela should continue in CF until the Sox had a chance to look at the other internal options at SS. Romy's injury compounded that process a bit, but it's now becoming clear that the team cannot continue putting Hamilton out there on a daily basis. Not if you're trying to compete and win games. Do you give Reye's another game or three there? I believe that every game counts, but I also believe that over 90% of the season remains and sometimes you have to weigh the two against each other when faced with situations like this. You also have to weigh the effect that this SS situation is having on the rest of the team. Not only has it clearly cost the team wins, but it is extending innings, forcing starters to throw more pitches which in turn leads to earlier than hoped departures which leads to extra innings needed from the bullpen. It's a domino effect that will clearly place unneeded wear on a pitching staff that already has concerns of its own. I also think that there is a good chance that this starts to get into guy's heads. Talent level is one thing, but continually placing certain players in positions that they are not going to succeed in may well have a negative effect on that player and a domino effect on the team. What can the overall confidence level of that player or the team be when we see encore performances every day? If you're a pitcher, how do you not become frustrated and how long before. Sure you try to go out there and do your job, just control what you can control and any other cliche' you might come up with, but I think it's more that fair to say that it's only a matter of time before a guy starts to thinking, "Fuck, here we go again."

Going out and getting Elvis Adrus may or may not be doable. Remember, both sides need to come to an agreement for this to happen AND we also need to consider that it's not going to be an instant fix. He's going to need some sort of extended spring training to get into playing shape and possibly even physical shape. There's also 40 man roster issues to consider. I'm not suggesting that it can't be done, but "just sign _______________" is a helluva lot easier said than done. Barring any sort of trade that provides a viable option that is ready to go and given that other in-house options don't appear to be much of an option I believe that it's time to give Rafaela some starts at SS. Refusing to do so is IMO similar (in a different way) to refusing not to play Kike' at SS for such a long period of time last year. The reasons for playing Rafaela at SS at this point and time are as valid as the reasons for not playing Hernandez there last season and we are already seeing similar effects on the pitching staff just 14 games into this season. I think it's time.

 

[YTF]

It's April 17th, 18 games into the season and the team is playing .500 ball. The road trip left us hopeful and the homestead has been dreadful. There have been pleasant surprises and some painfully predictable circumstances. There have been injuries that have delayed the season for some players and injuries that have ended the season for others. At other times guys have had to miss a few days due to being banged up. On any give day we're ready to get rid of 4-6 players with no reasonable plan to replace them. The team isn't as deep as we would like it to be and while recent play hasn't been great, the team is still somehow playing .500 ball. Some guys need to get healthy and others need to get their shit together, but somehow the team is playing .500 ball.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

181-181 at Fenway since 2019.

 

[Rovin Romine]

It's April 17th, 18 games into the season and the team is playing .500 ball. The road trip left us hopeful and the homestead has been dreadful. There have been pleasant surprises and some painfully predictable circumstances. There have been injuries that have delayed the season for some players and injuries that have ended the season for others. At other times guys have had to miss a few days due to being banged up. On any give day we're ready to get rid of 4-6 players with no reasonable plan to replace them. The team isn't as deep as we would like it to be and while recent play hasn't been great, the team is still somehow playing .500 ball. Some guys need to get healthy and others need to get their shit together, but somehow the team is playing .500 ball.

Yeah, a promising WC trip turned rather quickly into some pretty bad outcomes. IMO, the main story re: the reason for the losses is not the dings and injuries, and not really even the defensive miscues (although they exist and cost games). Rather, it's the state of the lineup. Yoshida, Valdez, Abreu, Rafaela, Reyes, and Dalbec have 249 ABs out of a total of 612 ABs. The best hitter among that group is Yoshida with a 64 OPS+ - and that's pretty much to "replacement level."

Cleary there are SSS issues, and some of those hitters may be heating up now. Some guys are temporary replacements. Others don't have far to go to be productive - a plus defensive guy or a super-utility player need not be a bat-first player.

But it remains a fact that more than a third of at bats have been taken by "absolutely hopeless" performances. I expect that's going to trend upward.

 

[YTF]

Two more infield errors today as another one or two that won't show up in the box score. With Dever's likely to miss at least a couple more games and O'Neill on the IL Cora's going to have some interesting lineup choices to make, none of them are appealing. So what are the options here? IMO, Rafaela needs to be at SS and Hamilton needs to be off the field. If that move is made then we're looking at Reyes/Dalbec at 3rd, Rafaela at SS, Valdez/Reyes at 2B and Casas at 1st. I guess the OF would look like Refsnyder/Yoshida/Reyes in LF, Duran in CF and Abreu/Dalbec in RF.

 

[SuperDieHard]

I don’t think the 9 batter pitcher has any great advantage - the Sox, for example, and probably many if not all the teams now have pitching machines that can replicate what any pitcher throws- the hitters can essentially bat off the guy in the tunnel in practice. Just because the same hitters aren’t seeing the pitcher’s stuff twice that same night shouldn’t matter that much. Not to sound old but guys used to go through the lineup 4 times in a night and still be effective. The best guys will have the ability to mix things up and keep the hitters guessing.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Two more infield errors today as another one or two that won't show up in the box score. With Dever's likely to miss at least a couple more games and O'Neill on the IL Cora's going to have some interesting lineup choices to make, none of them are appealing. So what are the options here? IMO, Rafaela needs to be at SS and Hamilton needs to be off the field. If that move is made then we're looking at Reyes/Dalbec at 3rd, Rafaela at SS, Valdez/Reyes at 2B and Casas at 1st. I guess the OF would look like Refsnyder/Yoshida/Reyes in LF, Duran in CF and Abreu/Dalbec in RF.

Yeah. . .I think it really comes down to if they think they can compete this year. If yes, they can't waste wins, and spending some organizational capital is justified. If no, the wins don't matter and you want to keep/develop capital for next season. (I think they can. The pitching upgrades are real. So I'll go under that general assumption.)

So they need to bridge the injuries. I think they're thin but OK on the pitching front.

Defense though. . .whatever David Hamilton's future is, it's probably not worth passing up a grab at WC spot this year. But it's not really contingent on him being up in the majors right now.

I don't know how they view what might happen deeper into the season, but ultimately guys like Reyes and Gonzalez and Dalbec are fungible in the grand scheme of things. If they can't hit now, there's little reason to hold onto all of them in the hopes they might be useful later. Because later might be too late. And then what? Are they all pieces you must have in 2025? Maybe there's one you value over another and that's fine.

But at this point, I'd consider promoting any hot hands, or trading for a MiL defense first journeyman. Maybe a Ryan Fitzgerald MiL journeyman type (assuming he could still play SS.) Or you put Sogard or Conteras someone on the 40.

If the later 40-man cost of that is Pablo Reyes or Conteras and he's subsequently claimed or something. . .it's genuinely unfortunate, but the marginal wins matter.

 

[YTF]

Fingers crossed and knock wood, Abreu looks to be finding his stroke. And three errors aside (I know, it's tough to "aside" errors with this team) I think he's played some pretty good defense. These next 3-4 or however many games are left before O'Neill returns gives him the opportunity to further his case for being the team's primary RF. Rafaela to SS also helps the cause.

 

[pk1627]

Just a completely different team than last year despite the same 11-10 record.

SP: Wow. It’s easy to say in hindsight, but we were all expecting the old SP’s to break last year. (And they did). These kids shoukd have some legs. For this reason alone, it’s worth it IMO trying to shore up some depth in other areas to compete.

RP: certainly not a shutdown pen. Not as bad as 2022. Pretty average, I’d say.

Offense: All these kids in the lineup are going to be inconsistent as hell, though I’d personally like to see what Rafaela, Grissom and Abreu can do over 100+ games. Can surely use a power RH bat.

D: Really went into a tailspin with one injury. A real difference maker for a team that is middling at scoring runs.

 

[pokey_reese]

Despite all of the injuries and problems, this team still has a better record than the Dodgers at this point. Yoshida has a higher OPS than Aaron Judge. It's only April, but it feels like last year's team would have already imploded, while this team is soldiering on and finding a way to tread water in the short-term, until we can field most of a healthy team again. As long as Casas isn't gone for too long, I'm optimistic even with everything else.

 

[RS2004foreever]

WAR leaders (baseball reference)
1. Betts - 2.3 grrrr
3. Kutter Crawford - 1.7

 

[Sin Duda]

Yoshida says, "climb aboard boys, I'll carry you home". And Abreau say, "hold my cerveza".

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

Just a completely different team than last year despite the same 11-10 record.

SP: Wow. It’s easy to say in hindsight, but we were all expecting the old SP’s to break last year. (And they did). These kids shoukd have some legs. For this reason alone, it’s worth it IMO trying to shore up some depth in other areas to compete.

RP: certainly not a shutdown pen. Not as bad as 2022. Pretty average, I’d say.

Offense: All these kids in the lineup are going to be inconsistent as hell, though I’d personally like to see what Rafaela, Grissom and Abreu can do over 100+ games. Can surely use a power RH bat.

D: Really went into a tailspin with one injury. A real difference maker for a team that is middling at scoring runs.

The bullpen is better than you think. It's 5th in FIP, 4th in xFIP, and 2nd in bb/9. The issue is the 12th-ranked BABIP, which of course goes back to the dreadful defense. Over 33% of the runs allowed have been unearned, and 18% of the earned runs allowed (nine of them) scored during an injured Campbell's final two innings before landing on the IL. I'd go to battle with a bullpen of Jansen, Martin, Weissert, Slaten, Bernardino, Winckowski, Anderson, and an addition.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The bullpen is better than you think. It's 5th in FIP, 4th in xFIP, and 2nd in bb/9. The issue is the 12th-ranked BABIP, which of course goes back to the dreadful defense. Over 33% of the runs allowed have been unearned, and 18% of the earned runs allowed (nine of them) scored during an injured Campbell's final two innings before landing on the IL. I'd go to battle with a bullpen of Jansen, Martin, Weissert, Slaten, Bernardino, Winckowski, Anderson, and an addition.

Right now Jansen is the one that gives me the least confidence actually

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

The bullpen is better than you think. It's 5th in FIP, 4th in xFIP, and 2nd in bb/9. The issue is the 12th-ranked BABIP, which of course goes back to the dreadful defense. Over 33% of the runs allowed have been unearned, and 18% of the earned runs allowed (nine of them) scored during an injured Campbell's final two innings before landing on the IL. I'd go to battle with a bullpen of Jansen, Martin, Weissert, Slaten, Bernardino, Winckowski, Anderson, and an addition.

I'd be happy if that addition was the ST version of Campbell

 

[Cassvt2023]

Okay, but not based on AAV. If we're actually going to promote (and extend) the young players, we should hopefully have a lot of pretty cheap lineups out there.

Like, an ideal, amazing, ZOMG, everything-has-gone-more-right-than-we-could-have-dreamed-possible lineup for mid-2026 could be something like:

L Anthony RF
R Grissom 2B
L Devers 3B
R Bleis LF
L Casas 1B
R Campbell DH
L Mayer SS
L Teel C
R Rafaela CF

That lineup's current-year paycheck would basically be Devers' $31m salary + $10m for everyone else. (The bench in this scenario is Story/Abreu/Yoshida/Wong and somehow still Dalbec?) But we should still be able to afford to ink some high-end SPs to short-term high-AAV deals.

What happened to Jarren Duran? Is he returning punts for the Patriots?

 

[YTF]

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1782170158594744440?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

The "look how little these guys are being paid" talk is tiresome.

Yep and also taboo in this thread.

 

[simplicio]

I don't think it really makes the point Cotillo thinks it makes.

I don't think Cotillo was trying to make a point beyond "hey every one of their highly paid players is currently injured, that's wild."

But apologies if that's a misread and I'm off topic here.

 

[YTF]

Okay, but not based on AAV. If we're actually going to promote (and extend) the young players, we should hopefully have a lot of pretty cheap lineups out there.

Like, an ideal, amazing, ZOMG, everything-has-gone-more-right-than-we-could-have-dreamed-possible lineup for mid-2026 could be something like:

L Anthony RF
R Grissom 2B
L Devers 3B
R Bleis LF
L Casas 1B
R Campbell DH
L Mayer SS
L Teel C
R Rafaela CF

That lineup's current-year paycheck would basically be Devers' $31m salary + $10m for everyone else. (The bench in this scenario is Story/Abreu/Yoshida/Wong and somehow still Dalbec?) But we should still be able to afford to ink some high-end SPs to short-term high-AAV deals.

Please see two posts above this one.

 

[TubeSoxs]

I see this a fair amount and gotta call it out. This describes Rutschman, Holliday, Kjerstad and Cowser, the latter three of whom haven't done much yet, but the Orioles have also nailed lots of later picks. The Red Sox could have taken Westburg instead of Yorke. Coby Mayo (current 24th overall prospect according to FG) was a 4th round pick. So was Joey Ortiz who they dealt in the Corbin Burnes deal. Basallo was an international signing. Plus the Sox' best prospect was top 5 so this really seems like sour grapes.

The Orioles are a wagon and it wasn't just because they were terrible for a few years. They won 100 games last year only getting contributions from one top 5 pick and have done an insanely good job in drafting and scouting. Elias and Mejdal would have had success anywhere.

I think you are even being too kind. Norby, Beavers, Povich all also look ready to call up over there, which were guys taken 2nd to 4th. Bloom got cute and took players like Yorke and Romero early because of their slot value, and while its looks as if Anthony(despite struggling now) looks like a hit, Cutter Coffey and Blaze Jordan don’t look anywhere close to being major leaguers at the moment. Jud Fabian also is starting to come into his own now which was another Bloom blunder. I’m more hopeful with the new regime, this draft coming up will be interesting.

 

[simplicio]

I think you are even being too kind. Norby, Beavers, Povich all also look ready to call up over there, which were guys taken 2nd to 4th. Bloom got cute and took players like Yorke and Romero early because of their slot value, and while its looks as if Anthony(despite struggling now) looks like a hit, Cutter Coffey and Blaze Jordan don’t look anywhere close to being major leaguers at the moment. Jud Fabian also is starting to come into his own now which was another Bloom blunder. I’m more hopeful with the new regime, this draft coming up will be interesting.

Yes it's almost like high school and college draftees have different development arcs, how strange.

 

[Sin Duda]

I don't think Cotillo was trying to make a point beyond "hey every one of their highly paid players is currently injured, that's wild."

But apologies if that's a misread and I'm off topic here.

That's the way I read it too.

 

[Cassvt2023]

New regime, new draft strategy is my guess. It should be very interesting to see, and we are a couple months away from it. If I had to guess, there will be much more focus on pitching and maybe 5 tool OF and less on MI types, which the system has a lot of right now

 

[bosockboy]

14-11 with this insane injury run you gotta be impressed with. They play hard and the pitching is just otherworldly.

 

[Remagellan]

14-11 with this insane injury run you gotta be impressed with. They play hard and the pitching is just otherworldly.

Cora's taken a lot of hits over his years here, but he has to be given credit for how well the team has played through its (aptly labeled) "insane injury run". This team is fighting hard, and not folding its tent or making excuses (despite having plenty of them).

 

[8slim]

14-11 with this insane injury run you gotta be impressed with. They play hard and the pitching is just otherworldly.

Totally agree, and was thinking as much as the Cs hacked up a home playoff loss last night. All the credit to the Sox for battling.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

14-11 with this insane injury run you gotta be impressed with. They play hard and the pitching is just otherworldly.

It's weird how this team seems to coalesce when it's injury decimated. Last year they had a solid stretch through that whole 3 starters and 2 openers thing. For example, they were 15-8 in July with Bernardino (5x), Jacques, Schreiber, and Tayler Scott (who?) picking up "starts." Of course that caught up to them eventually. Hopefully they can get guys healthy and on track before they run anyone into the ground this year.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I think you are even being too kind. Norby, Beavers, Povich all also look ready to call up over there, which were guys taken 2nd to 4th. Bloom got cute and took players like Yorke and Romero early because of their slot value, and while its looks as if Anthony(despite struggling now) looks like a hit, Cutter Coffey and Blaze Jordan don’t look anywhere close to being major leaguers at the moment. Jud Fabian also is starting to come into his own now which was another Bloom blunder. I’m more hopeful with the new regime, this draft coming up will be interesting.

What are you even talking about?

Yorke '20 (1/17)
Jordan '20 (3/89)
Romero '22 (1/24)

Norby '21 (2/41)
Beavers '22 (1/33)
Povich traded for in '22.

 

[HfxBob]

Cora's taken a lot of hits over his years here, but he has to be given credit for how well the team has played through its (aptly labeled) "insane injury run". This team is fighting hard, and not folding its tent or making excuses (despite having plenty of them).

Baseball managers usually take more flak than they deserve, I think. The first time I joined a Red Sox forum was in 2007, and I was astounded by how much Francona hate there was. Cora's management style reminds me a lot of Francona's. Personally I think Francona and Cora were/are both about as good as you could ask for. It's a hard job, especially in Boston.

 

[Hanson Brothers Foil Guy]

I am honestly wondering how much of the new pitching brain trust is responsible for this run of injuries to the pitching staff. Correlation/causation, I know, but it still seems like this group is snake-bit. I'm genuinely curious if the new pitching staff has changed something with the training regime that could account for it? Maybe the increased emphasis on breaking balls? Obviously, I'm throwing sh*t against the wall here, but it just seems...odd.

 

[HfxBob]

I am honestly wondering how much of the new pitching brain trust is responsible for this run of injuries to the pitching staff. Correlation/causation, I know, but it still seems like this group is snake-bit. I'm genuinely curious if the new pitching staff has changed something with the training regime that could account for it? Maybe the increased emphasis on breaking balls? Obviously, I'm throwing sh*t against the wall here, but it just seems...odd.

It's a natural question. One thing to look at is Bailey's tenure with the Giants 2020-2023. How did those staffs fare injury-wise?