I think all three guys have the upside of top ten player, but let me be a contrarian here for a moment. Because I don't think it's that simple a question. The question to ask is what happens if they can never fix their real issues.You're not the first to state this but I'd personally take Simmons over Fultz and Tatum. Even though Ben can't shoot and doesn't really play defense. Yet. His skills and the things he can do on the offensive end are so outrageous that if he becomes a passible shooter and defender, he's like top 10 easy.
First, I am definitely not on the Fultz downtrain. He does seem to have some psychological yips at this moment, but I strongly suspect that's just a rookie/#1 pick thing. I'll be stunned if that is ever a real issue. The issue I see with him is one of defensive aggression/effort. What happens if he just can't, for whatever reason, invest himself on that end? Well, i suspect that the result is that you end up with a poor man's James Harden, which is still a damned good result for #1.
Tatum's main issue that I see is the physical/upside question. I don't think he's explosive enough for the smaller wing spots, so he probably needs to be more of a power 3 (since those guys are the new prototypical 4s in the pace & space era). How athletic will he be at 235-240? Defense is also an issue, but breaking his way in on this team somewhat ameliorates that. I'd be more worried if he were breaking in on a young team. His floor is so high and he does so much well that I think he's almost a sure bet to be a top 50 player.
Simmons' issue, of course, is the horrific shooting. and I don't like the Greek Freak comparisons for him because the GF always had the otherworldly athleticism to fall back on. So even Giannis' his shot never came around his floor was an all-NBA defender with the upside of DPoY candidate that could be an MVP candidate if he developed as much perimeter game as Kevin Garnett (one reason a lot of us wanted him in 2014).
Simmons doesn't have that ability to devour court space defensively, so the possibility that the shot never comes around puts his floor pretty low in comparison with the other two guys. So I have no qualms about people thinking that the other two are better prospects.
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