Matt Kemp to the Padres

[MakMan44]

The Padres have reached an agreement with the Dodgers that would send outfielder Matt Kemp and catcher Tim Federowicz to San Diego in exchange for catcher Yasmani Grandal and a pair of pitching prospects, sources told the U-T.

 
The Padres also got around $30 million to cover Kemp's salary. 
 
I don't think the Padres are quite good enough to be making moves like these, and Kemp's really not an OF at this point, but it's also not a guarantee that Grandal turns it around or that Elfin turns into anything special. 
 
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/dec/11/padres-dodgers-agree-trade-kemp-grandal/

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

 
The Padres also got around $30 million to cover Kemp's salary. 
 
I don't think the Padres are quite good enough to be making moves like these, and Kemp's really not an OF at this point, but it's also not a guarantee that Grandal turns it around or that Elfin turns into anything special. 
 
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/dec/11/padres-dodgers-agree-trade-kemp-grandal/

They have Hedges in the minors who is almost ready. In this market that contract went from albatross to steal with the Dodgers picking up 30 million. Love the move for San Diego they needed a star to market the team around and got one. Not to mention an excellent player when healthy.

 

[NYCSox]

Kemp's not really an OF at this point?

 

[dynomite]

Hard to believe how far and fast Kemp fell.

Here's the Baseball America write up when they named him the best player in baseball in 2011: http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/2011-major-league-player-of-the-year-matt-kemp-12465/

As measured by Baseball-References adjusted OPS metricwhich compares a players OPS with the league average and then adjusts for home ballparkMatt Kemp had the most productive offensive season by any center fielder in the last 30 years. Like Ken Griffey Jr. in 1997, Kemp led his league in homers, RBIs and runs scored.

At the time the Griffey comparison was fairly standard.

 

[E5 Yaz]

The deal will send Kemp and catcher Tim Federowicz to San Diego, with the Dodgers receiving catcher Yasmani Grandal, righty Joe Wieland, and a third player, likely pitching prospect Zach Eflin. The Dodgers will also include around $30MM to help cover the $107MM remaining on Kemp’s contract, which runs through 2019.
 
mlbtr

 

[MakMan44]

Kemp's not really an OF at this point?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/on-the-major-sticking-point-that-is-matt-kemps-defense/
 
Probably overstated that a bit, but he's a very bad OF at this point. His UZR numbers from this season were awful. 

 

[JohntheBaptist]

Hard to believe how far and fast Kemp fell.

Here's the Baseball America write up when they named him the best player in baseball in 2011: http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/2011-major-league-player-of-the-year-matt-kemp-12465/

At the time the Griffey comparison was fairly standard.

 
There's that contract obviously and he isn't nearly as mobile as he was at his peak--but he had a really nice rebound in 2014. He was an absolute monster in the second half.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

Why didn't they just release Andre Ethier?  On MLB network, the reason given for this trade was that they felt they had to get rid of one of their outfielders but nobody would take the contracts of Crawford or Ethier under any circumstances.  Kemp hit pretty well down the stretch.  Ethier didn't show much of anything. 

 

[dynomite]

 
There's that contract obviously and he isn't nearly as mobile as he was at his peak--but he had a really nice rebound in 2014. He was an absolute monster in the second half.

Right, I get it. But this is a guy who put up a .324-39-126-40 line at age 26, and in the 3 years since has only hit above .300 once, hasn't stolen 10 bases in a season, and needed a 9 HR September to get to 25 this year.

He's still an interesting player with an impressive set of skills, clearly, but a lot of people though he was the next Ken Griffey Jr.

 

[jon abbey]

Why didn't they just release Andre Ethier?  On MLB network, the reason given for this trade was that they felt they had to get rid of one of their outfielders but nobody would take the contracts of Crawford or Ethier under any circumstances.  Kemp hit pretty well down the stretch.  Ethier didn't show much of anything. 

 
Releasing Ethier wouldn't relieve them of any of their financial commitment, and he is still their 4th OF, behind Puig, Pederson and Crawford. Also Grandal will be their starting C. 

 

[JohntheBaptist]

Well, to your point I guess I don't remember the Griffey comps/ see it in hindsight. And the writeup you cited isn't really making a Griffey comparison per se.
 
So I guess my point is I don't think it's all that notable that he had one career, Griffey-ish season and is now battling to stay on the field, where he's still productive when healthy.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

I understand that releasing Ethier wouldn't get them out of the money.  But the guy sucks and he's not worth much of anything.  Accept it and move on.  Kemp has been hurt but has the real possibility of giving some serious production.  How many guys can hit 9 homers in a month?  If he's healthy in spring training I'd have started Kemp ahead of Crawford in a heartbeat.  If they absolutely HAVE to pare their payroll X dollars, then fine.  You can get that from trading Kemp but Grandal better play.

 

[SydneySox]

Right, I get it. But this is a guy who put up a .324-39-126-40 line at age 26, and in the 3 years since has only hit above .300 once, hasn't stolen 10 bases in a season, and needed a 9 HR September to get to 25 this year.

He's still an interesting player with an impressive set of skills, clearly, but a lot of people though he was the next Ken Griffey Jr.

 
Without those 9 homeruns he wouldn't have had 25 homeruns? Well, without the other 16 he wouldn't have had 25 either!
 
Fuck you, statistics!

 

[dirky2000]

I really don't understand the Padres' motivation to make this trade.  When are they going to be an over .500 team?  Not while Kemp is a semi-useful player.  In the best case scenario, acquiring Kemp made them better than the Phillies as 2nd worst team in the NL while selling low on a promising young catcher and tying up a lot of payroll.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I really don't understand the Padres' motivation to make this trade.  When are they going to be an over .500 team?  Not while Kemp is a semi-useful player.  In the best case scenario, acquiring Kemp made them better than the Phillies as 2nd worst team in the NL while selling low on a promising young catcher and tying up a lot of payroll.

 
They were 8 games under .500 last season, with the best home record of any team in the NL West. Kemp's bat will help with their sorry offense, particularly on the road. They're better than the Phillies, Rockies and Diamondbacks, and potentially the last place team in the Central. They have a solid pitching staff and could flip one in a deal before the winter is over.
 
Kemp gives them a bat for teams to worry about in the short term. Grandal's promise is an open question. The Padres have to try to get better, and give people a reason to come to the park.

 

[dirky2000]

 
They were 8 games under .500 last season, with the best home record of any team in the NL West. Kemp's bat will help with their sorry offense, particularly on the road. They're better than the Phillies, Rockies and Diamondbacks, and potentially the last place team in the Central. They have a solid pitching staff and could flip one in a deal before the winter is over.
 
Kemp gives them a bat for teams to worry about in the short term. Grandal's promise is an open question. The Padres have to try to get better, and give people a reason to come to the park.

 
Maybe I was a little harsh on the team, but aren't they likely overrating Kemp and still overpaying for his decline?  This is the kind of deal that puts a team like them in the purgatory of not getting good enough draft picks along with not coming close to the playoffs either.  I guess I see the point about selling tickets...

 

[jon abbey]

Dave Cameron compares it to the Vernon Wells deal, that seems harsh but who knows:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-matt-kemp-trade-feels-like-the-vernon-wells-trade/

 

[Gash Prex]

God I would hate this deal if I was a padres fan - so much money for a guy who had essentially had an excellent  1/2 year after a terrible year and a serious injury.

 

[MakMan44]

I don't think Padres fans care about the money tied up in him, and I'm not sure how much they care that Grandal is gone either. Really, if I'm a Padres fan I'm excited. At the FO is making moves to try and get better. 

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Dave Cameron compares it to the Vernon Wells deal, that seems harsh but who knows:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-matt-kemp-trade-feels-like-the-vernon-wells-trade/

Careful, jon, Cafardo might be lurking here looking for lines to plagiarize for Sunday's column.

 

[Jettisoned]

Dave Cameron compares it to the Vernon Wells deal, that seems harsh but who knows:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-matt-kemp-trade-feels-like-the-vernon-wells-trade/

 
Kemp age 23-29 OPS+: 130
Padres get his age 30-34 (5) seasons for $107 million, plus $30 million
AAV ~$15.4 million
 
 
Wells age 23-31 OPS+: 109
Angels get his age 32-35 (4) seasons for $89 million, plus $5 million
AAV ~ $21 million
 
 
Cameron is being hyperbolic.  He also wrote "all of the sudden".

 

[nattysez]

Or not.
 

The holdup in Matt Kemp trade is because the physical revealed arthritis in both hips. The #Padres continue to consult medical experts.
 

 
I don't see how the Padres make this deal now.

 

[Rasputin]

Or not.
 
 
I don't see how the Padres make this deal now.

Dodgers pick up more cash?

 

[Average Reds]

Dodgers pick up more cash?

 
If the Dodgers want this to happen, they'll need to throw in significantly more cash or provide guarantees against the possibility that Kemp's arthritic hips end his career.  Otherwise Kemp goes back to LA.

 

[E5 Yaz]

If the deal is voided, it creats a chain-reaction of messes:
 
If the Padres decide to void the trade, then the Dodgers would also have to re-work their trade with the Philadelphia Phillies that was sending shortstop Jimmy Rollins to Los Angeles for a package that included Eflin.
 
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2014/12/18/matt-kemp-trade-holdup-padres/20587645/

 

[Average Reds]

delete.

 

[amfox1]

Or not.
 
 
I don't see how the Padres make this deal now.

 
I don't see how we can say this without knowing what SD knew about Kemp's condition before the trade was consummated.  
 
Whether or not the deal happens, there is going to be a huge storm over the HIPAA violations involved in Bob Nightengale's tweet of Kemp's medical condition.
 
My guess is that the trade is altered along the lines of Average Reds' post but still goes through.  Both teams made significant plans assuming the trade was going through.

 

[cromulence]

Of course you're right about HIPAA, but it's almost laughable to suddenly start worrying about athletes' HIPAA rights when they're violated all the damn time. That's not to say that it's OK, but it sure seems like the status quo over the last decade.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal · 1h1 hour ago


 
Information damages Kemp in public realm. Gives appearance of #Padres trying to leverage medical information. And is a violation of HIPAA.

 

[glennhoffmania]

I don't get this.  Didn't we all know about Napoli's condition when his deal was reworked, to give one example?  How is this different?

 

[glennhoffmania]

People with knowledge of the situation, in fact, still suggest they believe the Kemp trade is still more likely than not to happen, and that makes sense considering how heavily invested both teams are – especially the Dodgers, whose Jimmy Rollins trade appears to be dependent on the Kemp deal happening since one of the players coming from San Diego is expected to be flipped to Philadelphia for Kemp
 
There is no evidence yet that the Padres are trying to rework the trade to bring the star outfielder to San Diego, although that can't be ruled out as a possibility. For now, it is believed that Padres people are studying the examination findings, with the likelihood that they'll go to insurers to see whether the issue or issues discovered can be insured reasonably.
 

Heyman

 

[richgedman'sghost]

 

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal · 1h1 hour ago


 
Information damages Kemp in public realm. Gives appearance of #Padres trying to leverage medical information. And is a violation of HIPAA.

 

Sorry for my stupidity, but what is the difference between reporting about Kemp's condition or Napoli's condition? Would the reporting of Napoli's hip condition during his contract talks with the Red Sox violate HIPAA? How about the reporting of any player's injury? That would seem to violate HIPAA at least in theory.  

 

[E5 Yaz]

Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS · 1h1 hour ago


 
Holdup on Kemp deal was for SD to work out insurance. All good now.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Okay ... how is the Padres outfield going to line up now?

 

[MakMan44]

Okay ... how is the Padres outfield going to line up now?

Upton-Kemp-Myers left to right. 0 chance they're done though, way too many OFers on the roster. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

Upton-Kemp-Myers left to right. 0 chance they're done though, way too many OFers on the roster. 

 
Myers would be perfect for Baltimore

 

[nattysez]

Upton-Kemp-Myers left to right. 0 chance they're done though, way too many OFers on the roster. 

 
That sound you hear is the trade market for Allen Craig disappearing. 

 

[foulkehampshire]

Kemp is not a viable CF... he's absolutely terrible there. And then there's the injury risk.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Upton-Kemp-Myers left to right. 0 chance they're done though, way too many OFers on the roster. 

 
I think the only guy they really need to move is Quentin. Aligning the outfield like you have here, with Smith being the 4th outfielder and Venable as the 5th is a very nice use of their available resources. Kemp will need time out of the outfield to stay healthy, so Smith probably starts 60-80 games out there with Kemp moving to 1st for those games or taking the occasional day off. Smith can't play center, but Myers can survive out there. They could plan to start Venable who is only one season removed from a 126 OPS+.
 
They have a lot of flexibility there and I don't see a lot of reasons they should diminish it. Quentin definitely needs a new home, or even to be DFA'd, though. He's not making a ton of money (8 million next year) so eating his contract is an option, even for San Diego.

 

[Investor 11]

They've still got Maybin on the roster as well.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

They've still got Maybin on the roster as well.

 
 
I'd forgotten about him. Thanks. So what does their lineup look like now?
 
Amarista (SS), Norris (C), Upton (LF), Kemp (CF), Alonso (1B), Myers (RF), Gyorko (2B), Middlebrooks (3B), Pitcher?
 
Bench options include Seth Smith, Carlos Quentin, Will Venable, Cameron Maybin in the outfield, Rene Rivera at catcher, Everth Cabrera, Clint Barmes at short, Solarte at 3rd and Medica at 1st. That's 9 guys for 5 spots, so they're clearly not done. Wonder if they'll look to cash in on Seth Smith's good year?

 

[MakMan44]

Everth was non-tendered and Rivera went to the Rays.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Everth was non-tendered and Rivera went to the Rays.

 
Ah. Saw both of them listed by Cot's. Thanks. I'll just back out of the thread and read for a bit.

 

[MakMan44]

Right now, it seems like the Padres are planning on having Myers in center and Kemp in right. Probably the smart decision. 

 

[derekson]

The Rays used Myers to backup CF at times and he seemed reasonable out there, and he also played quite a bit of CF at the AAA level. From what I've seen of Myers, he's probably athletic enough to play CF for a few years while he's still in his mid-20s. However it is a pretty spacious OF and all 3 of the guys the Padres acquired are going to be stretched out there, and things could get ugly for any fly ball pitchers on that staff with a lot of balls falling in for doubles in the gaps. Myers in CF definitely seems much smarter than trying to throw Kemp out there though.

 

[grimshaw]

Steamer is projecting the following WAR for the new OF:
Upton: 2.8
Kemp: 1.8
Myers: 1.5
Seth Smith: .6 (in less than half of his at bats from last year)
 
The last time Kemp was passable in the OF was 2012 when he was worth 3.2 WAR.  This was with his offense roughly the same last year as it was in 2012.
His base running is starting to go downhill too.
 
One of Kemp's issues is that he hates playing anywhere other than CF.  His stubbornness may cause the Padres to cave in at least the short term.I'm just not seeing the worth in them putting him anywhere other than 1B or he loses a lot of value.
 
Since Smith is the least below average defensive OF they have, I think they ought to stick him in RF, ride Myers out in CF, and Upton in LF.  Smith is also left handed, but the Padres may be joining the Red Sox philosophy of stacking right handed hitters. 
 
There's also the possibility that Myers gets flipped for Hamels, in which case Maybin could attempt to trot his broken body out to CF where he would be  their best option if healthy.
 
I get that the Pads are making a lot of moves and generating buzz, but they are going to really regret that Kemp trade.  I just don't see how he maintains his value from last year much longer with his condition, and I definitely don't see how his fielding jumps back to 2012 level.

 

[MikeM]

I get that the Pads are making a lot of moves and generating buzz, but they are going to really regret that Kemp trade.  I just don't see how he maintains his value from last year much longer with his condition, and I definitely don't see how his fielding jumps back to 2012 level.

 
After watching Nelson Cruz get 4/$57m and given the premium we payed on the offensive side of free agency this winter, I personally think the (subsidized) value will hold up pretty well. Bordering on future bargain contract in the event he holds up for another full season in 2015. Worst case scenario with the defense being mitigated by the possibility SD could always flip him to the AL where his offensive potential still plays fairly well at the DH spot, of course. 
 
(If/when father time catches up with Ortiz, I also would not be shocked to see Kemp once again have his own extensive thread up on the main board   )

 

[dirky2000]

 
I don't see how we can say this without knowing what SD knew about Kemp's condition before the trade was consummated.  
 
Whether or not the deal happens, there is going to be a huge storm over the HIPAA violations involved in Bob Nightengale's tweet of Kemp's medical condition.
 
My guess is that the trade is altered along the lines of Average Reds' post but still goes through.  Both teams made significant plans assuming the trade was going through.

 
Do HIPAA laws apply here?  What about NFL injury reports?  What about every DL trip ever made?

 

[grimshaw]

 
After watching Nelson Cruz get 4/$57m and given the premium we payed on the offensive side of free agency this winter, I personally think the (subsidized) value will hold up pretty well. Bordering on future bargain contract in the event he holds up for another full season in 2015. Worst case scenario with the defense being mitigated by the possibility SD could always flip him to the AL where his offensive potential still plays fairly well at the DH spot, of course. 
 
(If/when father time catches up with Ortiz, I also would not be shocked to see Kemp once again have his own extensive thread up on the main board   )

I forgot about the 30 million.  I was thinking it was less for some reason.  You could be right - but this is also assuming he is not completely hobbled in a year or two.
If he averages about 2.5 WAR over the course of the deal it works out (especially if he moves to 1st), but he has failed to do that in 3 out of the last 5 seasons.