Minor league thread 2023

[JM3]

Fangraphs defines a 50 scouting grade as major league average. Noll has his 26 players ranked as 50 or higher. For comparison Fangraphs had 5 and MLB Pipeline had 8 on their midseason reports. I like reading his comments and seeing his list but his scouting grades are inflated.

Yeah, he's definitely more of a Red Sox MiLB stan than a scout. & he is the epitome of eternal optimism.

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/SmittyOnMLB/status/1712775853073965248

 

[JM3]

Don't think I read this Nelly Taylor article before.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/09/red-sox-2023-draft-pick-beat-cancer-cousin-saved-his-life-with-tackle.html

 

[JM3]

That group also includes Yu Chang & not sure who else off the top of my head.

That group no longer includes Yu Chang...

10/13/23 SS Yu Chang elected free agency.

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisHenrique/status/1712886950988800015

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1713321301857742903

 

[JM3]

The Red Sox released my #165 prospect. Going to have to think about where I went wrong on this one.

10/13/23 DSL Red Sox Red released LHP Daniel Nunez.

He was definitely old for the DSL, he turns 21 in April, but in 32.1 innings he had a 2.78 ERA & only allowed 20 hits with 44 strikeouts. He did walk 22, though.

 

[JM3]

Probably just means I need to weigh ages more than I already am in the DSL.

View: https://twitter.com/laantenaoficial/status/1674899959148052481

 

[JM3]

MERLIN

10/14/23	RHP Merlin Bido assigned to DSL Red Sox Red.
10/14/23	Boston Red Sox signed free agent RHP Merlin Bido to a minor league contract.

 

[JM3]

MERLIN is a 17 y/o 6'0 righty from Santiago, Dominican Republic.

The previous IFA period ends December 15th. It looks prior to this Red Sox had spent $4,173,000 of their $4,644,000 pool. So they have a couple months to spend $470k. No idea if Merlin is good enough to warrant spending any sort of chunk of that on.

 

[JM3]

Found this, but no info on signing bonus or skill.

View: https://twitter.com/brendan_camp/status/1713970828772073774

 

[JM3]

Regardless, excellent name.

 

[Chainsaw318]

I look forward to “MERLIN” being a thing in 2 years.

 

[JM3]

The Red Sox released my #165 prospect. Going to have to think about where I went wrong on this one.



He was definitely old for the DSL, he turns 21 in April, but in 32.1 innings he had a 2.78 ERA & only allowed 20 hits with 44 strikeouts. He did walk 22, though.

I was going through some other recent Red Sox IFAs who are no longer in the org to try to figure out if I'm missing something. Most make sense, but then there are some like Ronny Ramirez...

Ramirez signed for $10k in July '21. In '21, his age 17 season, he was not great, slashing .195/.392/.260 (.652 OPS) in 91 PAs, 14 walks/25 strikeouts.

However, in '22 he posted a slash line of .309/.459/.370 (.829 OPS) in 100 PAs, 19 walks/15 strikeouts.

That's obviously very OBP heavy, & not setting the world on fire, but not that bad for an 18 y/o & seems to show good discipline & contact skills. But then they released him in April '23. If I was doing rankings I feel like I might have had him in the 120s & that seems like it would have been massively wrong.

 

[JM3]

MERLIN is the 1st guy during this current GM'less period who would need a CBO to be designated for him, & I think it would probably be listed as ER for Eddie Romero same as the guys who signed between DD & CB.

 

[chrisfont9]

I was going through some other recent Red Sox IFAs who are no longer in the org to try to figure out if I'm missing something. Most make sense, but then there are some like Ronny Ramirez...

Ramirez signed for $10k in July '21. In '21, his age 17 season, he was not great, slashing .195/.392/.260 (.652 OPS) in 91 PAs, 14 walks/25 strikeouts.

However, in '22 he posted a slash line of .309/.459/.370 (.829 OPS) in 100 PAs, 19 walks/15 strikeouts.

That's obviously very OBP heavy, & not setting the world on fire, but not that bad for an 18 y/o & seems to show good discipline & contact skills. But then they released him in April '23. If I was doing rankings I feel like I might have had him in the 120s & that seems like it would have been massively wrong.

Was it simply numbers and his place got taken by a newly incoming international signee? I would guess that they cull from the bottom ranks every year to make room for the next crop.

 

[JM3]

I was going through some other recent Red Sox IFAs who are no longer in the org to try to figure out if I'm missing something. Most make sense, but then there are some like Ronny Ramirez...

Ramirez signed for $10k in July '21. In '21, his age 17 season, he was not great, slashing .195/.392/.260 (.652 OPS) in 91 PAs, 14 walks/25 strikeouts.

However, in '22 he posted a slash line of .309/.459/.370 (.829 OPS) in 100 PAs, 19 walks/15 strikeouts.

That's obviously very OBP heavy, & not setting the world on fire, but not that bad for an 18 y/o & seems to show good discipline & contact skills. But then they released him in April '23. If I was doing rankings I feel like I might have had him in the 120s & that seems like it would have been massively wrong.

Another one that doesn't make a lot of sense just based on surface things is Elvys Castillo. Elvys signed in January '21 for $140k as a 17 y/o OF.

In his age 17 season, he slashed .254/.313/.322 with 4 walks & 14 strikeouts in 63 PAs. It's obviously not great & he didn't get a ton of run, but as a guy who they had just signed for $140k, it's interesting to me that they decided that's all they wanted to see from him. He was released in June '22.

 

[JM3]

Was it simply numbers and his place got taken by a newly incoming international signee? I would guess that they cull from the bottom ranks every year to make room for the next crop.

Absolutely. It's just that I would expect a guy who gets on base almost half the time would be more likely to be someone they'd want to give a shot to in FCL more so than someone they would want to cull.

I assume there is something that just isn't knowable to me, though, such as him being bad at defense capped out physically for whatever reason, a bad teammate, etc.

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1713963712577716610

 

[JM3]

Red Sox in the Top 100 of Just Baseball's prospect rankings:

#9 ROMAN
#34 Mayer
#53 TEEL
#66 C NOTE
#93 BLEIS

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/mlb-top-100-prospects-2023/

 

[JM3]

They have long prospect writeups on that link, but it keeps trying to c&p the whole thing rather than the individual writeups, so I'll post them later.

 

[JM3]

9. Roman Anthony – OF – Boston Red Sox
Height/Weight: 6’3″, 200 | Bat/Throw: L/R | 2nd Round (79), 2022 (BOS) | ETA: 2025

HIT	RAW POWER	GAME POWER	RUN	FIELD	FV
45/55	55/65	45/60	55/55	45/55	60+

A second round pick in the 2022 draft, Anthony has already made waves with his power to all fields and advanced approach.

Offense
Anthony starts upright with his hands high and sinking into his back side with an early, slow load. He gets himself into a good hitting position, helping him see the ball early and crush velocity as well as make good swing decisions.

He has an OPS well over 1.000 against fastballs, showing the ability get to heaters in difficult spots. His overall chase rate of 18% is one of the best figures you’re going to find from a teenager in full season ball, helping him walk at a high clip.

Where Anthony is still a work in progress is handling breaking balls, which stems from lower half inconsistencies. While he gets himself into a good spot pre-swing, Anthony has the tendency to leak forward on breaking stuff, losing his back hip prematurely.

Of course, this is an extremely common challenge for young hitters — especially teenagers in High-A. This should improve as Anthony gets more reps and learns how to control his body a bit better through his swing. He has already demonstrated an above average feel for the barrel, which paired with his bat speed and patience gives him an above average hit tool projection.

Anthony boasts exciting power potential, driving the ball over the replica monster in Greenville with consistent ease while flashing exit velocities to his pull side as high as 111 MPH already. With a 90th percentile exit velocity of 106 MPH as a 19-year-old, it’s more a matter of consistently lifting the ball for Anthony when it comes to his power, as he already flashes plus raw juice with room for more. Leverage and lift will come with lower half consistency as well.

Defense/Speed
An above average runner, Anthony covers plenty of ground and already commands center field with a fair amount of comfort. From the direct routes he takes to the way he plays the ball off of Greenville’s jagged center field wall, Anthony looks the part.

He may slow down a bit as he fills out, but already getting good jumps with direct routes, Anthony has a decent shot of sticking up the middle. If he moves to a corner, he’d project as a well-above average defender. Though not much of a base stealer, Anthony adds value on the bases with his decent wheels.

Outlook
Few prospects enjoyed more helium than Roman Anthony in 2023, and for good reason. A second round pick in 2022 out of the talent factory that is Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in South Florida, Anthony hit the ground running much like his high school teammate, Baltimore’s Coby Mayo.

Plus power potential with an above average feel to hit and advanced approach is an easy sell offensively, but if Anthony can stick in center as he has shown the ability to do in the early goings, he can quickly become one of the best outfield prospects in baseball.

 

[JM3]

34. Marcelo Mayer – SS – Boston Red Sox
Height/Weight: 6’3″, 190 | Bat/Throw: L/R | 1st Round (4), 2021 (BOS) | ETA: 2024

HIT	RAW POWER	GAME POWER	RUN	FIELD	FV
35/50	55/60	45/55	50/50	55/65	60

A well-rounded game with exciting potential in the batter’s box, Mayer has already shown a decent feel to hit and staying power at shortstop with still plenty of physical projection.

Offense
A sweet left-handed swing with a ton of whip, Mayer hit the ball hard and can spray it all over. Starting with his weight slightly stacked on his back leg, Mayer’s load features a pronounced barrel tip, which can disrupt his timing a bit.

With the bat starting flat to completely vertical when slotted, it adds another move to get it back flat to enter the zone. He was able to get away with this move more at the lower levels because of his feel for the stick and improved bat speed, but it has presented some challenges in Double-A.

While there is more room to fill out for Mayer, he is already tapping into above average raw power with a 90th percentile exit velocity of nearly 105 MPH and a max of 112 MPH. There’s some zone whiff for Mayer as his swing can get long on him at times, but that very well could go hand-in-hand with his pre-swing moves.

His long levers help him drive the ball with authority to all fields with carry. Already producing a bit more thump than expected, Mayer is a better hitter than his Double-A numbers would indicate. With some cleaning up of his pre-swing moves, he can develop into an average hitter with plus juice.

Defense/Speed
Though not a great runner, Mayer moves his feet well at shortstop and has all of the goods to be a plus defender there. A plus arm, soft hands, good footwork and clean actions help Mayer look silky smooth at short. Though he’s not the most incredible athlete, Mayer is able to make difficult plays look easy thanks to his instincts and impressive ability to throw from different slots.

Outlook
It was a great first full season for Mayer in just about every aspect last year. The 20-year-old produced impressive offensive numbers between Low-A and High-A while providing reason to believe that he can stick at shortstop long-term.

2023 started well for Mayer before stalling out in Double-A as one of the younger position players at the level. As he refines his aggressive approach and pre-swing moves a bit, he has a chance to develop into an exciting shortstop who can impact the game both offensively and defensively.

 

[JM3]

53. Kyle Teel – C – Boston Red Sox
Height/Weight: 6’0″, 180 | Bat/Throw: L/R | 1st Round (14), 2023 (BOS) | ETA: 2025

HIT	RAW POWER	GAME POWER	RUN	FIELD	FV
50/60	45/50	40/45	50/50	45/55	55

An athletic left-handed hitting catcher with the potential for a plus hit tool, the Red Sox may have found their future behind the dish.

Offense
Starting with his hands high, Teel utilizes a leg kick that gets him well into his lower half as he loads his hands deep over his back foot. Pre-swing moves that require plenty of athleticism, he controls his body well with the barrel maneuverability to get to difficult pitches or still get a decent swing off when he is fooled.

Teel does not possess a ton of power, but he consistently gets his best swing off and has room to add more strength to his wiry frame. He has average power potential, but sprays plenty of line drives gap-to-gap, even if the home run output is somewhat subdued. There should still be around 15 home run potential in there for Teel with plenty of doubles.

Between his feel for the barrel and solid approach, Teel should be a steady on-base threat who is capable of slugging enough to complement his hit-first profile.

Defense/Speed
An extremely athletic catcher, Teel moves well behind the dish and has a rocket for an arm that helped him throw out a third of attempted base stealers in his collegiate career. His receiving has been viewed as one of the weaker aspects of his game, but clearly improved over his time at Virginia. Teel has above average defensive potential at catcher and has at least average wheels.

Outlook
The ceiling may not be as high for Teel as some other top 100 prospects, but with his feel to hit from the left side and staying power at a premium position, there’s a relatively short list of catching prospects who should be ranked ahead of him.

There’s a chance for plus hit, average power, and above average defense behind the dish for Teel with the ability to climb quickly.

 

[JM3]

66. Ceddanne Rafaela – OF – Boston Red Sox
Height/Weight: 5’8″, 195 | Bat/Throw: R/R | IFA: $10K (2017) – BOS | ETA: 2023

HIT	RAW POWER	GAME POWER	RUN	FIELD	FV
40/50	55/55	40/50	70/70	65/75	55

A great defender at multiple spots, Rafaela enjoyed a power breakout in 2022, boosting his longterm outlook. Rafaela is an incredibly unique prospect, for all of the right reasons.

Offense
Sneaky exit velocities and an improved ability to lift the ball have helped Rafaela tap into more power as he has progressed through the minors. He starts upright with his hands high over his head before sinking into his back leg as he loads his hands.

Rafaela gets the most out of his smaller frame, boasting a 90th percentile exit velocity of 104 MPH and max of 109 MPH. He has an average feel for the barrel, but is extremely aggressive at the plate, running a 40% chase rate. Rafaela’s high swing rates would be more palatable if he posted better contact rates, but it’s hard to deny his results thus far. His improved ability to produce power in games takes some pressure off of the hit tool as well.

Despite being so aggressive, Rafaela has solid offensive numbers against all offerings. If he could improve his approach, much of the risk around his offensive profile would dissipate, but he has the potential for average hit and above average power.

Defense/Speed
A 70 grade runner and premium athlete, Rafaela is an impact defender no matter where you stick him on the diamond. Rafaela saw the majority of his action in center field, where his speed is on full display. He covers a ridiculous amount of ground and gets great jumps, with his routes getting better and better as the year went on. He’s a plus plus defender in center and could become one of baseball’s best.

Rafaela is not quite as elite at shortstop due to limited reps comparatively, but his quickness, great hands and range make him an above average infielder at the position or better. He is an asset defensively. A threat for 20-30 stolen bases annually, Rafaela is not afraid to run, but could be more efficient.

Outlook
Rafaela’s offensive improvements over the last couple seasons have drastically improved his outlook. Once viewed as a bench utility type, Rafaela looks more like an everyday player with super-utility versatility in a similar manner to Chris Taylor of the Dodgers. That is the ceiling to dream on for Red Sox fans, but I don’t think they would be upset with a younger, faster Kiké Hernandez either.

 

[JM3]

93. Miguel Bleis – OF – Boston Red Sox
Height/Weight: 6’2″, 175 | Bat/Throw: R/R | IFA: $1.5M, 2021 (BOS) | ETA: 2026

HIT	RAW POWER	GAME POWER	RUN	FIELD	FV
35/50	55/65	45/55	60/60	50/60	55+

The Red Sox’s most expensive International Free Agency signing since Rafael Devers, Bleis tore up the rookie levels, showcasing exciting tools across the board with big offensive upside before a shoulder injury ended his first season at an affiliate.

Offense
Projectable, but already powerful, Bleis relies on plus bat speed and relatively long levers to produce strong exit velocities. Bleis turned heads as an 18-year-old at the complex, launching several 400 foot bombs while reaching a max exit velocity of 110 MPH.

Bleis could benefit from cleaning up his bat path a bit, which has resulted in some struggles against breaking balls in the early going, but he has has no issues with fastballs as a pro. A free swinger, Bleis only walked at a 6% clip in 40 complex games last year. Already producing above average power figures, Bleis could easily exceed plus territory in the power department as he fills out and learns how to use his lower half more in his swing.

Though a small sample, Bleis has posted decent contact rates and has a chance to be an average or better hitter. It’s very early in the development of the Red Sox’s prized IFA get, but it’s clear there is plenty to dream on. The rawness of his approach and swing might result in some growing pains for Bleis, but there’s 30 homer upside in his bat.

Defense/Speed
An easy plus runner, Bleis covers plenty of ground quickly with his long strides. The most advanced aspect of his game is easily his center field defense, where he already looks extremely comfortable and makes great reads off of the bat with the closing speed to get to balls many can’t. Bleis has an above average arm that plays well in any outfield spot.

Though lower level stolen base figures should be taken with a grain of salt, Bleis swiped 18 bags on 21 tries at the complex last season and has the speed to be a consistent stolen base threat.

Outlook
One of the higher variance prospects on the top 100 list, Bleis has All-Star potential as a player who can impact the game on both sides of the ball in center. There’s some questions around the hit tool, but his likelihood of staying in center and potential for plus power help his outlook. He’s far off, but there’s enough to dream on for Bleis to be considered one of the most exciting center field prospects in the game.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Another one that doesn't make a lot of sense just based on surface things is Elvys Castillo. Elvys signed in January '21 for $140k as a 17 y/o OF.

In his age 17 season, he slashed .254/.313/.322 with 4 walks & 14 strikeouts in 63 PAs. It's obviously not great & he didn't get a ton of run, but as a guy who they had just signed for $140k, it's interesting to me that they decided that's all they wanted to see from him. He was released in June '22.

I don't know anything specific about the two prospects that you mentioned who were released but I imagine in some of these cases, guys just realize they don't want to do the grind that is minor league baseball, which is why they get released. Not something you'd ever be able to figure out with regard to your rankings.

P.S. I just got through your season write-ups so thanks again for doing those. Really great information for those of us who don't closely follow the minors.

 

[JM3]

I don't know anything specific about the two prospects that you mentioned who were released but I imagine in some of these cases, guys just realize they don't want to do the grind that is minor league baseball, which is why they get released. Not something you'd ever be able to figure out with regard to your rankings.

P.S. I just got through your season write-ups so thanks again for doing those. Really great information for those of us who don't closely follow the minors.

I think sometimes it's guys who are tired of the grind... but after one season & a $140k bonus? It seems more likely to me that's a team decision. But I'll keep working on it & see if I can't keep improving what I'm doing.

& you're quite welcome & I'm glad you find value in them.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I think sometimes it's guys who are tired of the grind... but after one season & a $140k bonus? It seems more likely to me that's a team decision. But I'll keep working on it & see if I can't keep improving what I'm doing.

& you're quite welcome & I'm glad you find value in them.

Could also be really bad attitude issues or something else the team didn’t think was fixable.

 

[JM3]

Could also be really bad attitude issues or something else the team didn’t think was fixable.

Absolutely. Lots of things it's impossible to pick up through simple stats. Just looking for patterns at the moment.

At least until someone funds a scouting trip to the DR for me lol

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/sittingstillsox/status/1714104909266579563

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Absolutely. Lots of things it's impossible to pick up through simple stats. Just looking for patterns at the moment.

it’s a no brainer.

 

[JM3]

I found this post from 8/15/2022 on another forum I had never heard of (can I name other forums?) by a poster named moonslav59 (who has over 75k posts on this other forum):

It's early, but here are some small sample size numbers from the rookie leagues:

DSL Red
.940 Frank Aastacio (68 ABs)
.857 Axel james (85)
.855 Ronny Ramirez (67)
.734 Freili Encarnacion (121- 3 HRs)

DSL Blue
1.146 Anger Romero (12 ABs- love the name!)
.889 Amando Sierra (171- 5 HRs)
.791 Jose Mendez (115)
.776 Kelvin Diaz (5 HRs)

FCL (Overall)
.959 Lyonell James (90)
.896 Miguel Bleis (153- 5 HRs leads team)
.880 Johnfrank Salazar (101)
.838 Daniel McElveny (64)
.804 Alan Castro (99- 3HRs)

Kind of interesting how little most of the people, especially on the DSL side have done since then...

Astacio was released in November 2022 after putting up a .916 OPS in '21 & a .908 OPS in '22. He turned 23 the other day, though, so if they didn't feel like he could cut it at the higher levels it makes sense. Kind of surprising a guy with a .916 OPS who was already somewhat old for the level would repeat the level once again. Astacio was originally signed for $7k in 2018.

Axel James had struggled in '21 with a .675 OPS. He repeated the level in '22 & improved to an .892 OPS in his age 20 season, but it wasn't enough to prevent him from being released in November 2022. James was also signed in '18, for $60k.

We discussed Ronny Ramirez already.

& then Freili was supposed to be the next big thing. Freili had a .704 OPS (15 walks, 51 strikeouts) in his age 17 season...& is supposed to be a bat first infield prospect. Potentially overhyped due to $1.1m signing bonus? Or maybe they see some untapped potential. This season was a struggle with injuries, struggling & injuries. Freili had a .520 OPS in only 35 PAs for the FCL Sox.

Anger has never really been a serious part of the DSL Sox. He ended last season with a 1.033 OPS in 18 PAs in his age 17 season...which dropped to .358 this season in 48 PAs. Romero signed for $10k in May '22.

Armando Sierra is an example of a guy who got to move up to FCL after 2 years in DSL (.752 OPS as a 17 y/o & .873 OPS as a 18 y/o). This season he only had 112 PAs for the FCL Sox with a .761 OPS. Sierra signed for $150k in January '21.

Mendez signed in July '19 for $200k. He was touted as a glove first infielder. Due to the pandemic, he was not able to play for the DSL Sox until '21, in his age 18 season. He had a pretty unusual stat line that season...10-40 with 22 walks & 10 strikeouts, good for an .808 OPS. He got a bit more run in his 2nd year, putting up a .794 OPS in a more conventional way (37-130 with 26 walks & 33 strikeouts), before being released in April 2023.

Diaz, like Sierra was another double-DSL guy who got some run in the FCL this year. He's super athletic & signed for $300k in July '19, but he has not been a great hitter, yet (OPS of .666, .788 & .698). He turned 21 earlier this month. He did improve from a 7.7% walk rate in '22 to a 19.1% walk rate in '23, but in the process his ISO dropped from .213 to .102, & his strikeout rate remained excessively high (26.6% to 27.5%). He was 21 of 25 on steals this season. I expect we'll probably see him at Salem next year?

 

[JM3]

Anyway...the bottom line takeaway is that I've probably overrated certain DSL players on the list.

 

[JM3]

Anyway...the bottom line takeaway is that I've probably overrated certain DSL players on the list.

& I better update my list before more cuts happen so I feel less silly

Another telling example on the pitching side is LHP Stiwar Adames. He was signed in February '20 for $50k as a 17 y/o & obviously could not pitch that season. In '21 he had a solid season with a 2.35 ERA in 23 innings...but had 13 walks & 13 strikeouts. In '22 he had a 9-1 record & 2.37 ERA in 38 innings, with 15 walks & 32 strikeouts, & then was released in November '22.

Another interesting example is RHP Andres Ortuna. He was signed for $50k in July '18 as a 16 y/o. He made his debut in '19 as a 17 y/o & had a 5.01 ERA in 46.2 innings, 28 walks to 32 strikeouts. After the pandemic year, he came back much better in '21 with a 2.37 ERA in 38 innings with 9 walks & 44 strikeouts. He was not promoted however, & in '22 put up a 1.11 ERA in 24.1 innings with 7 walks & 27 strikeouts. & then was released in November '22.

So good #s don't mean much if you're old for the level, & at some point it's time to move on if they don't think the pitchers can cut it at the FCL.

 

[JM3]

In '22, DSL Blue had 5 pitchers listed as being in their age 20 season. Of those, only Wandy Abreu made it to '23, getting promoted to the FCL. They had 4 pitchers in their age 19 season. Luis Cohen & Cristian Nunez moved up, Daniel Nunez repeated, & Ortuna was released. They had 5 pitchers in their age 18 season. Elvis Soto & Yizreel Burnet moved up, 2 guys repeated, & Inmer Lobo was traded. They had 3 pitchers in their age 17 season. Willian Colmenares was promoted, 1 repeated, & 1 was released (after a 2.79 ERA in 9.2 innings). & they had 1 pitcher in his age 16 season, who repeated this year & was still bad.

 

[JM3]

Here's the breakdown for '22 DSL Red Pitchers:

21 y/o - 2 (Royman Blanco was promoted, & the aforementioned Frank Astacio pitched an inning)
20 y/o - 4 (Simon Pacheco was promoted & the other 3 are gone)
19 y/o - 5 (Yonfi Rodriguez was promoted, Darlyn De La Cruz & Cesar Ruiz were promoted during the season, & the other 2 are gone)
18 y/o - 5 (All 5 got promoted - Eybersson Polanco, Smil Guzman, Jogly Garcia, Alvara Mejias & Denis Reguillo)
17 y/o - 2 (Both repeated)

So overall rates for promotion, repeating & releasing...

21 y/o - 2 (1-0-1)
20 y/o - 9 (2-0-7)
19 y/o - 9 (3-3-3)
18 y/o - 10 (7-3-0)
17 y/o - 5 (1-3-1)
16 y/o - 1 (0-1-0)

So what can I learn from this? Don't be old I guess? Will break down this year's guys by age & try to guess which of the 3 categories they will fall in based on this tiny sample size from the year before (don't feel like going back to '21 right now).

 

[JM3]

21 y/o: 2 - Alisson Del Orbe (#106) & Emmanuel Polo (#251) - I have to assume Polo is gone. He was quite bad this year (10.13 ERA in 18.2 IP). Del Orbe is interesting to me because it was his first year as pitcher & he put up a 1.23 ERA in 29.2 IP with 44 strikeouts. I probably have him overrated, but I think Del Orbe will be promoted to FCL & Polo will be released.

20 y/o: 3 - Daniel Nunez (#165), Cristofer Soriano (#199) & Oscar Sanchez (#242) - DDLC (#132) & Ruiz (#194) also started the year in DSL, but were already promoted to FCL mid-year, so they no longer count. Nunez was already released, which led to this whole existential faux-crisis. Soriano had a 3.04 ERA, but was worse than Nunez in pretty much every way, so I assume he's also gone. & Sanchez was pretty bad. So I'll predict all 3 to be gone.

19 y/o: 5 - Luis Jerez (#122), Ali Ascanio (#206), Jean Carlos Reyes (#210), Enrique Carta (#229) & Aaron Liranzo (#257) - Jerez was pretty good (3.21 ERA in 33.2 innings, 9 walks & 31 strikeouts), & it was his 1st year in the system after being signed in December '22 for $18k, so I think he'll get at least another year. Not sure if promotion or not, though. I probably have him slightly over-ranked - very over-ranked if he isn't promoted. Ascanio was used as a closer some, recording 3 saves & I believe pitching better toward the end of the year (confirmed: in his last 4 outings he pitched 6.2 scoreless innings, 2 hits, 1 walk & 9 strikeouts, compared to the 1st 11 outings where he pitched 17 innings, allowing 11 runs on 12 hits & 18 walks, with 13 strikeouts). Will be interesting to see if those 4 outings are enough to save his place in the org or even earn a promotion. Reyes had a 3.53 ERA, but a 1.54 WHIP & 6.8 k/9, so I expect him to be gone. He should definitely be not that close to Ascanio in the rankings. Carta had a 3.48 ERA & 1.89 WHIP. His problem seems to be crazy wildness, so they might see something there & keep him over Reyes, even though I have him ranked lower, but I expect he'll probably be released, too. Liranzo was awful & I would definitely expect him to be released.

Will do the rest next post, & then a summary of guesses...

 

[JM3]

Change of plans. Just the 18 y/o this post. Paragraphs are our friends.

18 y/o - 10: Gilberto Batista (#48), Jose Martinez (#58), Andres Jimenez (#70), Deybi Salcedo (#103), Ruben De La Cruz (#154), Daury Pena (#172), Yeferson Vargas (#214), Ovis Portes (#217), Yoelvin Chirino (#235), Hanssel De Los Santos (#258)

I think the top 3 should all definitely move up - if they don't I will have to strongly reconsider my rankings.

Salcedo is interesting because he signed for $10k this July & then pitched great over a small sample size: 1.35 ERA in 13.1 innings, 5 hits, 2 walks & 19 strikeouts. So I hope they've seen enough to want to promote him, but who knows?

RDLC increased his ERA from 3.04 last year to 3.65 this year, but decreased his BB/9 from 7.6 to 2.9 & increased his K/9 from 8 to 11.3. He's 5'10, so I'm not too excited about the upside, but he's been solid enough that I would probably expect a promotion #s permitting?

Pena was another mid-season acquisition, signing for $2k in July. He only allowed 1 run in 9 innings, 8 hits, 3 walks & 12 strikeouts. I would expect him to stick in the DSL for another year before getting promoted or released.

Vargas had a rough season, but they kept on running him out there - he was 3rd on DSL Blue with 34.2 IP, despite the 6.09 ERA & 1.91 WHIP. He signed for $10k this past December & it kind of feels like he'll get another year of DSL. Very good boxer name, but I'm not that optimistic.

This was a lost year for Portes. He only pitched 4.1 innings (badly) due to injury. But last year he had a 1.21 ERA in 22.1 IP with 11 walks & 28 strikeouts. In his short stint this year, he allowed 6 runs on 2 hits & 6 walks, 3 HBP & striking out 9. Feels like straight up rust. I kind of feel like I should move him up in my rankings & that he might end up getting promoted if they like what they see enough in side work...or released if he's not fully recovered...or repeating the year & hoping for more proof of concept in the DSL. All options are on the table.

Chirino (like Salcedo & Pena) was a July signing ($10k bonus). He did not do as well in his small sample size as they did, though: 7.15 ERA in 11.1 innings, 10 walks & 8 strikeouts. I guess they'll probably give him another shot next year, but I'm not overly optimistic.

Hanssel (so cold right now) had about the worst season imaginable. In 12.1 IP he had a 15.75 ERA, 21 walks, 9 HBP & 3 strikeouts. He signed for $1k in March & I would be surprised if he was invited back for another season.

 

[JM3]

It's interesting how much younger the DSL pitchers are this year to last year.

17 y/o: 11 - Jesus Garcia (#64), Wuilliams Rodriguez (#71), Nicolas De La Cruz (#92), Juan Henriquez (#99), Ricardo Rodriguez (#124), Geiser Figueroa (#162), Argeny Sanchez (#188), Juan Valera (#213), Breilin Arredondo (#219), Marcos Almanzar (#234) & Denison Sanchez (#246)

Is my JESUS ranking irrational? Maybe. But he doesn't turn 18 until this month & put up a pretty solid season with a 3.30 ERA & 1.28 WHIP in a Red Sox DSL leading 43.2 innings. He also signed for $130k this January. Excluding Chansol Lee's late signing ($300k), Garcia was the highest bonused Red Sox international pitcher by $55k. He will go way down in the rankings if not promoted, but I hope he is.

My WUILLIAMS love is probably even more irrational than the Jesus thing. But he had a 2.75 ERA in 36 IP with a 1.22 WHIP. He received a $50k bonus in January. He's another guy that I'm rooting they think enough of him to promote him. He & Garcia could both maybe use another year in the DSL as their strikeout rates are underwhelming (7.0/9 & 7.4/9 respectively), & like Garcia, Wuilliams turns 18 in November. We shall see.

NDLC was the one to receive the next biggest bonus after Garcia with $75. He was the only lefty on DSL Blue this season. & he also turns 18 in November. He got by despite pretty terrible walk (5.4/9) & strikeout (5.9/9) rates. In 33.1 IP he had a 3.51 ERA & 1.11 WHIP, allowing only 17 hits. I think he probably gets another DSL season.

Henriquez led DSL Red in IP with 42.1, but didn't pitch great (4.68 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 21 walks, 44 strikeouts). Henriquez signed for $30k in June. I would expect he would get another DSL season to see how he does. One thing he has going for him is he doesn't turn 18 until June.

Ricardo Rodriguez is 1 of 3 Rodriguezes who signed for $50k this January (along with Wuilliams & Gerardo). Like Henriquez, he also had mediocre results: 34.2 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 24 walks & 32 strikeouts. He turns 18 in December. I would expect he'll get another year of DSL.

Figueroa is tall (6'4) & young (turns 18 in March). Geiser received a $55k signing bonus in January. He was very inconsistent, but put up some good games, including in 2 of his last 4 games, (4 IP, 0 runs, 1 hit, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts & 3 IP, 0 runs, 1 hit, 0 walks, 3 strikeouts). Overall, he had a 4.68 ERA in 32.2 IP, 1.65 WHIP, 25 walks, 32 strikeouts. Seems like a guy who could definitely use another year in the DSL.

Argeny Sanchez, who turned 18 last month, pitched for both DSL Blue & DSL Red, but only 15 innings total. He missed about a month from mid-June to mid-July. I believe due to injury? He signed for $60k this January & seems like someone who could use a full, healthy year in the DSL next year.

Valera was pretty bad this year, but may have some of the same issues with getting his mechanics as a taller, younger player as Geiser. Valera is 6'3 & doesn't turn 18 until May. He signed for $45k this April. In 27.1 IP he had a 5.93 ERA & 1.72 WHIP, 20 walks, 7 HBP, 12 wild pitches & 31 strikeouts. His 12 wild pitches was 3 more than any other Sox DSL player. Definitely seems like a give him another year in the DSL guy.

Arredondo signed for $10k in November. He was pretty mid this season: 35 IP, 5.14 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 25 walks & 32 strikeouts. He turned 18 in July & it feels like he should be further behind Valera in the rankings. Wouldn't be shocked if they just let him go, wouldn't be shocked if he got another season.

Almanzar signed for $10k in January. He walked an amazing # of hitters...24 in 12.1 IP (17.5 bb/9). He had an 8.76 ERA & 2.76 WHIP. Not sure if he gets another season? Maybe? he doesn't turn 18 until March.

Denison Sanchez, who was the only 16 y/o in last year's sample, & signed for $10k in January '22, had another bad season this year. He had a 9.00 ERA in 19 innings with 22 walks & 22 strikeouts (2.37 WHIP). He turned 18 in August. Not so sure he gets another season.

 

[JM3]

16 y/o: 2 - Obed Balderas (#76) & Brahian Rijo (#222)

Obed had a pretty great ERA for a guy who didn't turn 17 until July (2.54). His underlying #s weren't quite as good - 39 IP, 1.39 WHIP, 10 walks, 25 strikeouts. So definitely not overpowering, but that is pretty advanced control for his age. Obed signed for $20k in January. I would still expect they will not send him to the FCL at 17, but it would be fun if they did...

Rijo, who signed for $20k in March, struggled a lot more. In 17.2 IP he had a 10.70 ERA, 2.21 WHIP, 17 walks & 19 strikeouts. I would definitely expect him to get another year in the DSL & see what happens.

 

[JM3]

So that leaves the following projections:

Promoted to FCL:
Gilberto Batista (#48)
Jose Martinez (#58)
Jesus Garcia (#64)
Andres Jimenez (#70)
Wuilliams Rodriguez (#71)
Nicolas De La Cruz (#92)
Deybi Salcedo (#103)
Alisson Del Orbe (#106)
Luis Jerez (#122)
Ruben De La Cruz (#154)
Ali Ascanio (#206)

Stay in DSL:
Obed Balderas (#76)
Juan Henriquez (#99)
Ricardo Rodriguez (#124)
Geiser Figueroa (#162)
Daury Pena (#172)
Argeny Sanchez (#188)
Juan Valera (#213)
Yeferson Vargas (#214)
Ovis Portes (#217)
Brahian Rijo (#222)

Released:
Daniel Nunez (#165)
Cristofer Soriano (#199)
Jean Carlos Reyes (#210)
Breilin Arredondo (#219)
Enrique Carta (#229)
Marcos Almanzar (#234)
Yoelvin Chirino (#235)
Oscar Sanchez (#242)
Denison Sanchez (#246)
Emmanuel Polo (#251)
Aaron Liranzo (#257)
Hanssel De Los Santos (#258)

Last year they did 14-10-12, so tried to stay somewhat consistent with that, even if it differed with my above comments.

This is 11-10-12, but they promoted DDLC & Ruiz toward the end of last year, so I think they would count toward that. If they wanted to promote one more, I will guess Ovis Portes, & if they want to keep one more from the cut list, I'll guess Yoelvin Chirino.

 

[JM3]

That reminds me...SoxProspects has a page where they project '24 Rosters. They don't preemptively cut anyone, but let's see who they promoted...

Gilberto Batista (same)
Wuilliams Rodriguez (same)
Obed Balderas (different)
Juan Henriquez (different)
Ruben De La Cruz (same)
Alisson Del Orbe (same)
Luis Jerez (same)
Jose Martinez (same)

https://soxprospects.com/2024.htm

So they didn't promote Garcia, Jimenez, NDLC, Salcedo, or Ascanio, but did promote Obed & Henriquez. Not too surprising they have those 2 getting promoted - they are both quite young & were decent-sized investments. We shall see.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Absolutely. Lots of things it's impossible to pick up through simple stats. Just looking for patterns at the moment.

At least until someone funds a scouting trip to the DR for me lol

FWIW, the farther away guys are, the harder it will be to judge the difference between prospects of a certain age. Not every 18/19/20yo is the same. Some are still super lanky kids figuring it out, where others are physically mature guys who look like high school football coaches and are just overpowering weaker guys with tools that won't play at higher levels when everyone is big. I can't imagine trying to judge those guys from afar without the copious video and writeups that accompany the American kids. Everyone's gonna miss some there.

 

[JM3]

Side note:

Prospects I need to add to the next list:
Yermain Ruiz - signed August 29th for $N/A, turns 18 in November. 5'11. I'd put him in the 250 range without further info.

Merlin Bido - signed October 14th for $N/A, turns 18 in February. 6'0. I'd put him in the 220 range without further info because his name is MERLIN #science.

Prospects I've added who haven't pitched yet:
William Reynoso (#244) - Signed for $10k on July 3rd. He's 6'0 & doesn't turn 18 until August.

Greider Colina (#247) - Signed for $10k on July 24th. He's 6'2 & turns 19 in April.

Yodrian Beltre (#248) - Signed for $N/A on July 28th. He's listed at 6'2 240 lbs & turns 18 in 3 days.

 

[LoLsapien]

Do college draftees ever get assigned to the DSL/FSL or do they usually go straight to Greenville? On the basis of names alone, it seems like most of these guys are international signings?

 

[JM3]

FWIW, the farther away guys are, the harder it will be to judge the difference between prospects of a certain age. Not every 18/19/20yo is the same. Some are still super lanky kids figuring it out, where others are physically mature guys who look like high school football coaches and are just overpowering weaker guys with tools that won't play at higher levels when everyone is big. I can't imagine trying to judge those guys from afar without the copious video and writeups that accompany the American kids. Everyone's gonna miss some there.

Yeah, I'm just trying to figure out how to miss by less at the moment. Will also be fun for me to track these things over time & see how various players climb & fall in the rankings now that I have everyone on them.

 

[JM3]

Do college draftees ever get assigned to the DSL/FSL or do they usually go straight to Greenville? On the basis of names alone, it seems like most of these guys are international signings?

Everyone on our Dominican Summer League (DSL) rosters is an International Free Agent. Most new college & high school draft picks go to the Florida Complex League (FCL), and then either stay there for the rest of the season or get assigned out to A-Ball (Salem) or High-A (Greenville).

 

[LoLsapien]

Got it! Thanks!

 

[JM3]

Got it! Thanks!

No problem! For example, this year, Kyle Teel started in the FCL, then was promoted to Greenville, then promoted again to Portland. Kristian Campbell started in the FCL then went to Greenville. & Nazzan Zanetello & Antonio Anderson started in the FCL & were promoted to Salem.