Minor league thread 2023

[JM3]

Fine. I also won't tell you about the 14 year old kid effortlessly throwing a boomerang the length of the local rugby pitch, around a post, and back to his hand with amazing pace

Now that I have conducted some research in the International Journal of Pure & Applied Mathematics...

https://www.ijpam.eu/contents/2012-78-3/5/5.pdf

...go on.

 

[JM3]

Rio apparently not a LIDOM superstar after all.

The only Red Sox farmhand in the league, Rio Gomez, made a pair of appearances. He threw 3 1/3 shutout innings on Tuesday, with four hits against four strikeouts, but coughed up four runs, three of which were earned, over three innings of work on Sunday. He had three strikeouts, but surrendered seven hits and walked a batter.

http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/10/fallwinter-roundup-strong-start-for.html?m=1

 

[edhand]

View: https://twitter.com/EdHand89/status/1718824499024388105




I would probably have Penrod ahead of Bastardo. Don't think Bastardo is good enough now to be close to contributing in MLB & don't think his upside is high enough to be concerned about him leaving.

Feels like if there's anyone out there who is potentially interested in a Sogard, Fitzgerald or Scott, they're the type of low ceiling older player that you just trade to them for a flyer to give their new team the flexibility to send them to AAA. Had higher hopes for Scott when he was raking, but hard to see him with a real role without being a good defensive catcher.

Allan Castro is in that Paulino tier of A+ guys with high upside who it would suck to lose, but seem too far away to protect until next year.

Politi & Hagenman make up the 27 y/o relief pitcher from New Jersey who could be taken but you certainly wouldn't bother to protect them Tier.

& then there's the Bonaci issue. He's currently on a bad list... but I've seen 0 reporting on what's actually going on & I somehow doubt we'll come back with an "Oops our bad you didn't do anything" from MLB, but he was probably going to need protecting before that.

Speaking of which, it's probably a good thing I don't have org sources or I would probably spend all my time bugging them about things that only I care about like what happened to Smil Guzman?

Zeferjahn seems to have a protectable arm, but not protectable results or mindset. Guys like Liu & Lugo are in that tier of guys who looked like they might need protecting but then had bad seasons.

I'll ask about Smil Guzman the next chance I get. Also must learn more about Chook Joints. What a wormhole you've opened.

I consider Penrod and Bastardo even just because Bastardo is four years younger but I see your logic. I'm still not 100% sure what to make of Penrod. I believe he's coming on the show after the AFL season is over. Definitely looking forward to that. I think you're probably right that Bonaci would have been added to the 40-man had the personal stuff not come up. What a mess. Say they add five players to the 40-man like last year- which five do you think would be added?

 

[JM3]

I'll ask about Smil Guzman the next chance I get. Also must learn more about Chook Joints. What a wormhole you've opened.

I consider Penrod and Bastardo even just because Bastardo is four years younger but I see your logic. I'm still not 100% sure what to make of Penrod. I believe he's coming on the show after the AFL season is over. Definitely looking forward to that. I think you're probably right that Bonaci would have been added to the 40-man had the personal stuff not come up. What a mess. Say they add five players to the 40-man like last year- which five do you think would be added?

Thx! Need to make sure my #207 ranking is accurate on him...

I would say Bastardo has a higher upside, but less chance to be rosterable next year. In his 3 starts in AA he had 5.6 k/9 & 5.1 bb/9 in 16 innings, 5.06 ERA (6.07 xFIP), despite a .196 BABIP. It's obviously a really small sample size, but that's his highest proof of concept.

He was up & down in A+ & struck out a ton of people, but also walked over 4 per 9 & had a 4.62 ERA. His xFIP was only 3.66, but I think the reason for the differential was the streakiness where he would lose it & give up big innings.

PENROD has a cool story & I like CAPITALIZING HIS NAME. His Independent League #s didn't look amazing, even this year, but apparently he led the league in ERA by like a run & it's a real hitter's league & he just came in & was immediately a front line starter in Greenville, in the playoffs & now in the AFL. & a 26 y/o lefty who can throw mid 90s as a starter with decent secondaries & ok control should be able to fill an all year R5 bullpen role more competently than Bastardo.

Rough order:

1) PERALES
2) Wikelman
3) Drohan
4) Gambrell (very Thad Ward-esque)
5) PENROD

& if I was allowed to keep going...

6) Fernandez
7) Paulino
8) Bastardo
9) Castro
10) Bonaci (absent more news)

& then everyone else is kind of if it happens, it happens.

I know you may be partial to them, but I will be sad if we keep guys like Walter, Dalbec & DHamilton on the 40 & lose any of the higher ceiling players.

 

[edhand]

Thx! Need to make sure my #207 ranking is accurate on him...

I would say Bastardo has a higher upside, but less chance to be rosterable next year. In his 3 starts in AA he had 5.6 k/9 & 5.1 bb/9 in 16 innings, 5.06 ERA (6.07 xFIP), despite a .196 BABIP. It's obviously a really small sample size, but that's his highest proof of concept.

He was up & down in A+ & struck out a ton of people, but also walked over 4 per 9 & had a 4.62 ERA. His xFIP was only 3.66, but I think the reason for the differential was the streakiness where he would lose it & give up big innings.

PENROD has a cool story & I like CAPITALIZING HIS NAME. His Independent League #s didn't look amazing, even this year, but apparently he led the league in ERA by like a run & it's a real hitter's league & he just came in & was immediately a front line starter in Greenville, in the playoffs & now in the AFL. & a 26 y/o lefty who can throw mid 90s as a starter with decent secondaries & ok control should be able to fill an all year R5 bullpen role more competently than Bastardo.

Rough order:

1) PERALES
2) Wikelman
3) Drohan
4) Gambrell (very Thad Ward-esque)
5) PENROD

& if I was allowed to keep going...

6) Fernandez
7) Paulino
8) Bastardo
9) Castro
10) Bonaci (absent more news)

& then everyone else is kind of if it happens, it happens.

I know you may be partial to them, but I will be sad if we keep guys like Walter, Dalbec & DHamilton on the 40 & lose any of the higher ceiling players.

I'll feel really bad for Dalbec if he's on the roster again. Hamilton and Walter I'm pretty indifferent towards. If they stay on the roster, fine, if they don't so be it. With Hamilton, he's got a carrying skill in his speed, but he just doesn't make enough contact or hit the ball on the ground enough. Really looked bad in his big league call up. Walter, I wonder if he was still dealing with a nagging neck/back issue or something, just didn't look like the same pitcher as in 2022.

 

[JM3]

I'll feel really bad for Dalbec if he's on the roster again. Hamilton and Walter I'm pretty indifferent towards. If they stay on the roster, fine, if they don't so be it. With Hamilton, he's got a carrying skill in his speed, but he just doesn't make enough contact or hit the ball on the ground enough. Really looked bad in his big league call up. Walter, I wonder if he was still dealing with a nagging neck/back issue or something, just didn't look like the same pitcher as in 2022.

Every single pitcher with maybe the exception of a SSS Gambrell seemed to regress significantly when they went to Worcester - more than one would expect from just the increased level & from the park & league effects from robo umps.

Not sure what was going on there. But I guess there's probably a reason they let the pitching coach go.

I wasn't following the system last year the way I have this year, but Walter having 12.2 k/9 with 0.5 bb/9 in AA last season is pretty insane, even for a 25 y/o. So maybe I shouldn't be so quick to write him off. I'll leave it up to Breslow I guess lol

& yeah, Hamilton's speed is a great carrying tool if he uses it to get on base & play defense, too. But it doesn't seem likely that will ever happen. That Renfroe trade seems like the biggest blunder of the Chaim era - not so much for trading away Renfroe, but for bringing back JBJ's corpse, not acquiring an actual RF & because Binelas/Hamilton seem like non-entities.

Rosier is kind of like what they probably hoped Hamilton would be.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Every single pitcher with maybe the exception of a SSS Gambrell seemed to regress significantly when they went to Worcester - more than one would expect from just the increased level & from the park & league effects from robo umps.

Not sure what was going on there. But I guess there's probably a reason they let the pitching coach go.

I wasn't following the system last year the way I have this year, but Walter having 12.2 k/9 with 0.5 bb/9 in AA last season is pretty insane, even for a 25 y/o. So maybe I shouldn't be so quick to write him off. I'll leave it up to Breslow I guess lol

& yeah, Hamilton's speed is a great carrying tool if he uses it to get on base & play defense, too. But it doesn't seem likely that will ever happen. That Renfroe trade seems like the biggest blunder of the Chaim era - not so much for trading away Renfroe, but for bringing back JBJ's corpse, not acquiring an actual RF & because Binelas/Hamilton seem like non-entities.

Rosier is kind of like what they probably hoped Hamilton would be.

Do you know if pitchers who have had success in AA get promoted to AAA and were/are under a “developmental phase” in which process and not results perhaps became more important? Was It an organization wide project to expose the pitcher’s weaknesses to see how they would respond?

 

[JM3]

Do you know if pitchers who have had success in AA get promoted to AAA and were/are under a “developmental phase” in which process and not results perhaps became more important? Was It an organization wide project to expose the pitcher’s weaknesses to see how they would respond?

AAA seems like an odd place to focus on process compared to the lower levels. They may have made certain different things an emphasis, but whatever it was they obviously weren't happy with it or they wouldn't have fired the pitching coach.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

I thought I remembered seeing something to that effect with Drohan, but it is likely that I am "misremembering".

Here is something to that effect:

However, after he was promoted to Triple-A and the Woo Sox in May, he has struggled, posting a 2-4 record and high 5.94 ERA in his first 12 games at this level.

At the same time, while working on new pitches, he continues to try to get Triple-A hitters out. He is focused on improving his curveball and cutter as he builds on his pitching repertoire; however, those pitches are still works in progress.

“I have put a little bit more emphasis on the cutter and slider right now. For me, because they’re newer pitches, I want to get a good feel for those pitches and throwing them in the game.”
Drohan admitted that working on these pitches in a game situation has affected his stats in Worcester. “It definitely can affect the outcome,” he said. “We’re trying to develop different pitches and … you really want to see how it works in a game. You can throw as many times as you want in the bullpen and in side-sessions through- out the week, but until you’re doing it in a game and getting the movement that you want and the action on it that you want, that’s where it matters.”

 

[JM3]

I thought I remembered seeing something to that effect with Drohan, but it is likely that I am "misremembering".

I think Brian Abraham, Director of Player Development, said something to that effect on a Podcast in terms of working through some things & challenging him & putting him in different situations.

Found this quote from Abraham:

Shane Drohan, WooSox left-handed pitcher
Stats: 10-7 record, 4.86 ERA across 26 games and 122.1 innings pitched.

Quote: “I think a part of the reason why he is in Worcester is to be challenged … pushing him to get to Triple-A. I think he’s working on shape of his pitches at certain times and just attacking the zone. I think there have been a lot of positives, I wouldn’t say there are negatives but I think room for improvement and opportunity to grow into next year.”

https://www.telegram.com/story/sports/mlb/woosox/2023/09/13/woosox-top-prospects-rundown-2023-season/70848517007/

But he had a 7% walk rate in AA & 15% walk rate in AAA, so whatever shape they were putting his pitches in seems to be broken.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Wouldn’t it make sense though? If it was me, I’d watch pitchers develop through the lower minors with their “natural talent “ and then at higher levels start to figure out their weaknesses and work on improving them if they sort of made the cut? Asking…. Maybe that’s not a good process?

 

[JM3]

Wouldn’t it make sense though? If it was me, I’d watch pitchers develop through the lower minors with their “natural talent “ and then at higher levels start to figure out their weaknesses and work on improving them if they sort of made the cut? Asking…. Maybe that’s not a good process?

I don't see an advantage to letting a guy do the same wrong thing for years before deciding it's time to fix it right when he seems to be progressing toward MLB. Or if there is a pitch or pitch shape that will be progressing their career, why not give them more time with these tools?

I think they're working on things every step of the way & to a large extent it is process over results, but the process & results seemed to have hit a roadblock when players have gotten to Worcester.

& I think the fact that the AAA pitching coach was fired without a CBO in place is a pretty good indicator that something was going wrong with that process.

These are ERAs in AA & AAA.

Drohan 1.32/6.47
Walter 2.88/4.60
Nail 0.99/4.85
Fernandez 1.77/6.16
Murphy 2.58/6.32
Guerrero 1.81/7.71
BVB 3.00/6.41

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I don't see an advantage to letting a guy do the same wrong thing for years before deciding it's time to fix it right when he seems to be progressing toward MLB. Or if there is a pitch or pitch shape that will be progressing their career, why not give them more time with these tools?

I think they're working on things every step of the way & to a large extent it is process over results, but the process & results seemed to have hit a roadblock when players have gotten to Worcester.

& I think the fact that the AAA pitching coach was fired without a CBO in place is a pretty good indicator that something was going wrong with that process.

These are ERAs in AA & AAA.

Drohan 1.32/6.47
Walter 2.88/4.60
Nail 0.99/4.85
Fernandez 1.77/6.16
Murphy 2.58/6.32
Guerrero 1.81/7.71
BVB 3.00/6.41

Ooof! Shit.... didn't realize it was that bad. I'd expect some sort of bump but that's waaaaay beyond.
But while I'm sure the process is to be working on helping pitchers throughout their lower levels, it still seems that at AAA is where you really would see weaknesses exposed. I'd hate to think that every single one of those guys had such flaws that their ERA's ballooned that much though.

 

[simplicio]

Whatever was happening there was bizarre. Mata got destroyed this year too. Really hoping Breslow has a fix.

 

[edhand]

I'm still not sure what happened with Drohan. I periodically would ask Chad Tracy what was going on with him, why his velo had dropped so much since the promotion and he would always (understandably) dance around it. Retrospectively, it shouldn't be a surprise that Abbott got the ax. I'm not sure there was a single pitcher that improved from AA to AAA this year but we saw plenty regress.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

I'm still not sure what happened with Drohan. I periodically would ask Chad Tracy what was going on with him, why his velo had dropped so much since the promotion and he would always (understandably) dance around it. Retrospectively, it shouldn't be a surprise that Abbott got the ax. I'm not sure there was a single pitcher that improved from AA to AAA this year but we saw plenty regress.

Hi Ed- Long time/First time.

What is your take on guys like Murphy, who had serious issues in AAA, but totally outperformed their Woo performance when in BOS?

 

[edhand]

Hi Ed- Long time/First time.

What is your take on guys like Murphy, who had serious issues in AAA, but totally outperformed their Woo performance when in BOS?

Hi Guapo, nice to meet you. Similar to Winckowski, I think the move to the pen helped him a lot. Added a few ticks to his fastball. Don't think its a coincidence they called him up like two outings after the move. Will be very interested to see how they stretch him out in the spring.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I thought this was funny...

View: https://twitter.com/sammysouser/status/1717014740633846122

Just catching up on this thread and appreciating this post.

 

[JM3]

Feels like now that Ed is around, he should just plug his own stuff buuuuuut...

Wide ranging conversation with
@SmittyOnMLB of MassLive. Couple of takeaways.

-He thinks Roman Anthony could make his MLB debut as early as 2024.
-Smith also thinks Kyle Teel or Marcelo Mayer could make their MLB debut first. Very clear who his top three in the system are.
-Like most of us, he's of the opinion that Alex Verdugo is the odd man out this offseason. What he might fetch on the trade market is anyone's guess, however.

All this and more.

View: https://twitter.com/EdHand89/status/1719358526294802573


I've been liking Smith's MiLB stuff lately as a nice way to learn more about the prospects & their backgrounds in quick, written form.

 

[JM3]

SP also has a new pod out.

View: https://twitter.com/SPChrisHatfield/status/1719352579803525190

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

@edhand -- Sorry to keep bugging you. My memory may be faulty, but I seem to recall one of Drohan's best outings coming in after an opener (mid-late summer, maybe it was Sale?) . Is that another Wink case, where "give us 3 of your best, rather than 5 of your 'meh' " suits the team better? I'll hang up and listen.

 

[JM3]

I am not Ed Hand, but Drohan had 2 games where he came in after an opener. The one I assume you're referring to was September 12th...which was definitely his weirdest outing...

Kluber pitched the 1st 2.2 & Mosqueda got the last out of the 3rd.

Here was my final writeup post on that game...

Drohan's final line is kinda crazy...

3.2 IP
0 runs
0 hits
7 walks
3 strikeouts

80 pitches, 38 strikes

The other time he pitched in AAA & didn't start was August 9th where he allowed 4 runs in 5 innings. Here was my writeup on that one...

Worcester won 5-4.

Drohan pitched 5 innings, allowing 4 runs on 5 hits & 4 walks, with 2 strikeouts. Apparently the bulk role doesn't suit him great, either. He did get the win, though.

So in 2 bulk outings...

8.2 IP
4 runs
5 hits
11 walks
5 strikeouts

4.15 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 5.2 k/9, 11.4 bb/9

 

[JM3]

Which means as a starter.

80.1 IP
60 ER
98 hits
52 walks
88 strikeouts

6.72 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 9.9 k/9, 5.8 bb/9

So will probably just call it SSS noise & greatly outperforming his FIP/xFIP in the bulk role.

 

[JM3]

In general I think that when "starting" them, they should absolutely be pitching guys like Pivetta, Murphy, Houck & maybe Drohan after a good, opposite-handed opener who can pitch 1 or 2 innings depending on the situation & how the other team sets out their lineup. Houck especially could benefit from this treatment considering his splits (.366 wOBA against lefties this year, .277 against righties) & the way he falls off a cliff the 3rd time through (.288 wOBA the 1st time through, .328 the 2nd & .395 the 3rd).

 

[chrisfont9]

Could also be really bad attitude issues or something else the team didn’t think was fixable.

Or he took the cash and enrolled in medical school. Who knows?

 

[Chainsaw318]

Feels like now that Ed is around, he should just plug his own stuff buuuuuut...



View: https://twitter.com/EdHand89/status/1719358526294802573


I've been liking Smith's MiLB stuff lately as a nice way to learn more about the prospects & their backgrounds in quick, written form.

FWIW - on the SP pod, they also seemed to think it’s conservative to say that 1 or more of Mayer, Teel and Anthony could reach Boston next season, which could be fun.

 

[JM3]

Important off season dates...

World Series ends to 5 days after that (11/1, 11/3, or 11/4 to 11/6, 11/8, or 11/9) - Player & team options get picked up or turned down, Qualifying Offers are tendered, players can start negotiating with teams regarding free agency but cannot sign with a new team, yet. After the 5 days, free agency officially opens.

11/15 - Deadline to add guys to the 40-man roster

11/17 - Deadline to remove people from the 40-man roster...feels like maybe one should have done that by 11/15.

12/3-12/6 - Winter meetings where the free agency period tends to ramp up.

12/6 - Rule 5 Draft.

1/12 - Arbitration figures exchanged. Arbitration in February.

1/15 - New IFA period opens. This is when most of the signings happen.

2/12 - Pitchers & catchers

Kind of obvious, but I wasn't really thinking about it when I posted this yesterday, but Minor League free agency also opens 5 days after the World Series ends, so we could be losing any/all of these guys then. I posted about them briefly a few days ago, but here's a bit more detail...

November 2023

Eddy Alvarez (N/A) - signed from the Brewers & fractured his foot in his 1st game with Worcester. Seemed like a fun character with his speed skating background. Despite being 1-1 in is illustrious WooSox career, Alvarez turns 34 in January.

Skylar Arias (#166) - 6'3 lefty who was signed as a MLFA last January. Lots of walks (6.3 per 9) & strikeouts (12.6 per 9) in his 24.1 IP for Portland before getting injured. 4.07 ERA (4.01 xFIP). I probably ranked him a bit too high considering his MLFA status, age, lack of control & especially injury. Thought there was some upside there still, though.

Kyle Barraclough (N/A) - Already declared free agency on 10/10 as was his right as a guy who was DFA'd. Pretty much the one guy who pitched both a lot & well in Worcester this year. His 3.65 ERA was 0.80 better than anyone else with at least 40 innings. He was 3rd on the team with 74 & would have been a fine guy to have around for Minor League depth prior to the BEAR CLAW game.

Cam Booser (#167) - Booser is a 31 y/o lefty who played Indy Ball for the Lancaster Barnstormers last year before signing with the Red Sox this February. Before that he was a Dog (Chicago, Indy) & a Sod Poodle (Amarillo, AA). Throws hard & wasn't totally awful (4.99 ERA, 4.48 xFIP in 57.2 IP). Not sure how much upside there is in a 31 y/o, but maybe Breslow can find it.

Narciso Crook (#187) - Crook, 28, appears to mostly be a clubhouse 1st type of guy at this stage of his career. The light hitting, mediocre fielding, corner outfielder was signed as an MLFA last November. He should not be ranked this highly.

Tyler Dearden (#192) - One third of the triple Tyler attack that Portland deployed sparingly. The 25 y/o corner outfielder repeated AA this year with very similar results - increasing his OPS from .767 to .773, while seeing his playing time decrease from 376 to 286 PAs. Hits ok, but not good enough for a guy who doesn't provide significant defensive value.

Alison Del Orbe (sp.) (#109) - The 1st of 2 converted hitters on this list & the one that intrigues me the most. Alisson was very old for the DSL this year - turning 22 in September, but it was his 1st year pitching, so I'm ok with it. The Rangers released him & he signed with the Red Sox this April. In 29.1 innings he had a 1.23 ERA (3.06 xFIP) & averaged 13.5 k/9. I hope he comes back & gets a chance to start the year in the FCL, or even at Salem if he's looking good enough.

Tyler Esplin (#223) - The next leg of the triple Tyler. Another mostly bat only player whose bat isn't good enough to carry him further. In 71 PAs this year he only walked twice & struck out 22 times, but still somehow managed a 98 wRC+.

Franklin German (#113) - German has kicked around - getting traded for a blacksmith (Theo Denlinger) to clear space on the 40-man roster, then getting released by 2 other teams before meandering back to the Red Sox, where he spent most of the year on various rehab assignments, including being an integral part of the Greenville playoff bullpen. Not sure what to make of him at this point, but he's 26 with an interesting arm & 4 MLB innings under his belt.

Michael Gettys (#183) - Interesting story. Converted from being an outfielder to a pitcher in August '21. Was oddly successful in '22 at Greenville & Portland...at Portland he pitched 18.2 innings striking out 8 & walking 8...but recording an 0.48 ERA with a 6.08 xFIP. & then he missed all of '23 with a pre-existing back injury. It would be a fun story, but he's already 28. He signed with the Red Sox as an MLFA in November '20.

Rio Gomez (#178) - Seems very capped talent-wise. I wrote a long feature on him elsewhere so won't get into it much here. The lefty, who turned 29 a couple weeks ago, had a 4.45 ERA (5.37 xFIP) in 56.2 innings for Worcester this season, & is currently pitching in the LIDOM.

Ronaldo Hernandez (#60) - The one guy on this list who is most prospect adjacent. He's out of Minor League options, & is a Minor League free agent, so unless they think he's ready to contribute to the MLB team, he's in a bit of an awkward spot. He turns 26 next month & plays defense adequately, & hits adequately. He put up identical 93 wRC+ the last 2 years, but increased his walk rate from 4.8% to 10.4% while decreasing his strikeout rate from 21% to 17.6%.

Dominic LoBrutto (#250) - The 27 y/o lefty hasn't pitched in 2 seasons, & wasn't particularly great when last he pitched in '21 (5.35 ERA, 4.17 xFIP). Breslow would really have to work some magic here.

Oddanier Mosqueda (#103) - The last holdover from Ben Cherington...Cherington had a nice run. Mosqueda is still somehow only 24. He was not good for Worcester this year...5.31 ERA, 5.27 xFIP...but he did pitch a lot (4th on the team with 61 innings). Another lefty for Breslow if he sticks around. Would be cool to have players acquired by Cherington, Dombrowski, Romero, Bloom, Romero again, & Breslow...if Breslow ever acquires anyone. I keep refreshing the transactions page with no luck.

Brendan Nail (#138) - Nail was great in AA before struggling in AAA. He's 28. Seemed like a good guy based on the pod Ed did with him. Yet another older lefty of Breslow is interested...

Aaron Perry (#255) - I may have an irrational dislike for Aaron Perry because he was always getting lit up whenever I saw him when I 1st started doing this. The 24 y/o righty had a 9.70 ERA in 21.1 innings in Greenville this year, but only a 3.92 xFIP & 11.8 k/9. So probably underrating him a bit.

Tyreque Reed (#245) - Reed used to hit well...160 wRC+ in A+ in '21 with 14 homers in 215 PAs, but then stopped. 95 wRC+ in Portland that year, 74 in Portland in '22 & missed all of last season with an injury. Minor League Rule 5 pick in '20. Don't really see much future for the 26 y/o.
Victor Santos

Sterling Sharp (#218) - I believe he was the only MLFA they brought back last season. 28 y/o org arm without stuff that really plays. Eats some innings as necessary, but hoping they have enough usable prospect depth that they won't need so many innings from a guy like this next year (85.2 IP, 5.36 ERA, 4.95 xFIP).

Bradley Zimmer (N/A) - Turns 31 soon. Former MLB player but basically org depth at this point. .660 OPS for Worcester this year.

https://soxprospects.com/mlfa.htm

 

[JM3]

Andrew Parker on Brendan Nail...

Nail did a good enough job in Worcester that he should be offered a spot back on the team this year. He is one of four lefties from the WooSox pitching staff that is a pending free agent. The only left-handers under contract from the bullpen coming back are Joe Jacques and Chris Murphy. In fact, there is only one left-handed reliever in Double-A in Brendan Cellucci who might be ready for Triple-A.

https://beyondthemonster.substack.com/p/red-sox-lefty-used-pending-free-agency?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=561815&post_id=138458369&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=1ekhry&utm_medium=email

 

[LogansDad]

Hi Guapo, nice to meet you. Similar to Winckowski, I think the move to the pen helped him a lot. Added a few ticks to his fastball. Don't think its a coincidence they called him up like two outings after the move. Will be very interested to see how they stretch him out in the spring.

I don't have much to add to this discussion, but as someone who recently moved away from the Xittersphere, I am happy to see you here and welcome basically anything you find the time to post.

 

[JM3]

SP also has a new pod out.

View: https://twitter.com/SPChrisHatfield/status/1719352579803525190

Listened to this. I feel a little bit too on the same page as them with what's going on with CBO, & I don't feel like I learned much... but I'm sure I would if I didn't waste way too much time on this stuff already...but a pleasant listen.

I guess I would say if there is one thing I learned is that they expect they probably signed Franklin German for next year, too, but they don't know, so that's why they have him listed as they do. I guess we shall find out.

 

[JM3]

Or he took the cash and enrolled in medical school. Who knows?

If he's good enough at baseball to earn $140k signing bonus & good enough at medicine to go to med school at 18, that's pretty impressive.

Feels like there has to be terms in these contracts that the player can't just quit after a season & keep their bonus (see e.g. Calvin Johnson), but who knows.

 

[byAndrewParker]

I don't see an advantage to letting a guy do the same wrong thing for years before deciding it's time to fix it right when he seems to be progressing toward MLB. Or if there is a pitch or pitch shape that will be progressing their career, why not give them more time with these tools?

I think they're working on things every step of the way & to a large extent it is process over results, but the process & results seemed to have hit a roadblock when players have gotten to Worcester.

& I think the fact that the AAA pitching coach was fired without a CBO in place is a pretty good indicator that something was going wrong with that process.

These are ERAs in AA & AAA.

Drohan 1.32/6.47
Walter 2.88/4.60
Nail 0.99/4.85
Fernandez 1.77/6.16
Murphy 2.58/6.32
Guerrero 1.81/7.71
BVB 3.00/6.41

I’d like to comment on this. While some things might have been weird in Worcester this season, the ABS had some to do with it. We saw guys like Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter really struggle with command due to a smaller strike zone in AAA this year. ERA was inflated across the league and I wouldn’t put too much into a guy like AJ Politi, Ryan Fernandez, or Brendan Nail having inflated numbers.

Now Mata and Drohan are different stories….

 

[edhand]

I’d like to comment on this. While some things might have been weird in Worcester this season, the ABS had some to do with it. We saw guys like Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter really struggle with command due to a smaller strike zone in AAA this year. ERA was inflated across the league and I wouldn’t put too much into a guy like AJ Politi, Ryan Fernandez, or Brendan Nail having inflated numbers.

Now Mata and Drohan are different stories….

Oh hi, Parker. It is me, Ed! I see you wanted to escape the nightmare that is X as well.

 

[edhand]

I am not Ed Hand, but Drohan had 2 games where he came in after an opener. The one I assume you're referring to was September 12th...which was definitely his weirdest outing...

Kluber pitched the 1st 2.2 & Mosqueda got the last out of the 3rd.

Here was my final writeup post on that game...



The other time he pitched in AAA & didn't start was August 9th where he allowed 4 runs in 5 innings. Here was my writeup on that one...



So in 2 bulk outings...

8.2 IP
4 runs
5 hits
11 walks
5 strikeouts

4.15 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 5.2 k/9, 11.4 bb/9

If anything, I'm a discount JM3. Good stuff right here.

 

[byAndrewParker]

Oh hi, Parker. It is me, Ed! I see you wanted to escape the nightmare that is X as well.

It’s a bit more peaceful here lol and love the minor league talk in this thread

 

[JM3]

I’d like to comment on this. While some things might have been weird in Worcester this season, the ABS had some to do with it. We saw guys like Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter really struggle with command due to a smaller strike zone in AAA this year. ERA was inflated across the league and I wouldn’t put too much into a guy like AJ Politi, Ryan Fernandez, or Brendan Nail having inflated numbers.

Now Mata and Drohan are different stories….

It's like a whole podcast reunion in here. Pretty cool.

International League ERA increased from 4.63 in '22 to 5.18 in '23, so definitely a bump, but not nearly as large of a jump as Politi's ERA from 2.41 to 4.45 (his xFIP also increased from 4.08 to 5.10), & not as much as those other jumps I mentioned.

Worcester's team ERA jumped from 4.40 to 5.02. But yeah, it's definitely of note when looking at AAA ERAs that the MLB average ERA was 4.33 so it's not apples to apples.

& the Eastern League ERA actually decreased from 4.36 to 4.27.

Has anyone looked into the difference in ERA between the full-ABS games & the challenge games?

I'm kind of willing to give Mata an injury pass. Do you think his issues this season have been deeper than that?

 

[JM3]

Oh hi, Parker. It is me, Ed! I see you wanted to escape the nightmare that is X as well.

The only thing I do on there is find stuff to link for this forum lol

Glad y'all are reunited. Would be awesome if you both stuck around. I've never felt the desire to Tweet. Not really into the negativity.

 

[byAndrewParker]

The only thing I do on there is find stuff to link for this forum lol

Glad y'all are reunited. Would be awesome if you both stuck around. I've never felt the desire to Tweet. Not really into the negativity.

I’ll hop in here from time to time. I am dropping our Chase Shugart interview tomorrow morning. Also will have Nick Sogard in the near future as well on to chat. If we haven’t gotten someone you really want us to get, let us know and we will try our best.

 

[chrisfont9]

If he's good enough at baseball to earn $140k signing bonus & good enough at medicine to go to med school at 18, that's pretty impressive.

Feels like there has to be terms in these contracts that the player can't just quit after a season & keep their bonus (see e.g. Calvin Johnson), but who knows.

Heh, well just sayin. Interesting question, if they don’t have such a clause it’s possible they don’t have a problem with guys not wanting to play very often. Anyway, on to the guys still playing. Thanks for rounding up all that info.

 

[JM3]

I’ll hop in here from time to time. I am dropping our Chase Shugart interview tomorrow morning. Also will have Nick Sogard in the near future as well on to chat. If we haven’t gotten someone you really want us to get, let us know and we will try our best.

Hmm interesting question. Other than the obvious names, I think a lot of the guys I would be most interested in would unfortunately need a translator, which, based on my work experience, wouldn't make for great podding without some good editing.

Otherwise, YORDANNY would be #1 by a lot. I believe ERC did the translating for Christopher Smith's piece on him. ERC would have an interesting perspective as one of the players who can actually converse with everyone, plus he has the potential to be a really good pitcher & had some injury hurdles this year.

Alex Hoppe would be interesting for evaluation purposes I suppose. Luis Guerrero has an inspirational story to tell.

Had a conversation with Ed about how fun Adam Bates would be. Really anyone from a disparate background who speaks English would be fun, whether that's Franklin Arias, Starlyn Nunez, Stijn Van Der Schaaf, Willian Colmenares, or whoever.

Jaret Godman could talk Vegas (my adopted hometown) so that would be fun for me. I'm sure Noah Song is already on your radar. & I'm always down for an interview of the new draftees. Hard to rank them with such limited info so your interviews have helped me sharpen some of those a bit.

Ed also mentioned that you guys might be getting PENROD after the AFL season, so that would be fun.

I would also enjoy any of the player development or evaluation people talking about their processes.

 

[edhand]

Hmm interesting question. Other than the obvious names, I think a lot of the guys I would be most interested in would unfortunately need a translator, which, based on my work experience, wouldn't make for great podding without some good editing.

Otherwise, YORDANNY would be #1 by a lot. I believe ERC did the translating for Christopher Smith's piece on him. ERC would have an interesting perspective as one of the players who can actually converse with everyone, plus he has the potential to be a really good pitcher & had some injury hurdles this year.

Alex Hoppe would be interesting for evaluation purposes I suppose. Luis Guerrero has an inspirational story to tell.

Had a conversation with Ed about how fun Adam Bates would be. Really anyone from a disparate background who speaks English would be fun, whether that's Franklin Arias, Starlyn Nunez, Stijn Van Der Schaaf, Willian Colmenares, or whoever.

Jaret Godman could talk Vegas (my adopted hometown) so that would be fun for me. I'm sure Noah Song is already on your radar. & I'm always down for an interview of the new draftees. Hard to rank them with such limited info so your interviews have helped me sharpen some of those a bit.

Ed also mentioned that you guys might be getting PENROD after the AFL season, so that would be fun.

I would also enjoy any of the player development or evaluation people talking about their processes.

We actually do have a translator. Have talked a little bit with Jedixson Paez about coming on and chatting with my Mexican friend Huitzo. Can talk to him about recording a couple interviews when I'm in Aruba for my honeymoon.

 

[JM3]

We actually do have a translator. Have talked a little bit with Jedixson Paez about coming on and chatting with my Mexican friend Huitzo. Can talk to him about recording a couple interviews when I'm in Aruba for my honeymoon.

I'm a divorce lawyer & have done a fair # of consults with Spanish-speaking potential clients & what often ends up happening is I ask a question, they answer for like 5 minutes, the translator translates for a few minutes, & then before I have a chance to ask a new question or speak on what they've already said, they're starting back up again & the pattern repeats lol

But I'm sure there is a more efficient way. & Paez is interesting. We'll see if he can benefit from Breslow’s focus on velo. Isaac Coffey, too.

 

[JM3]

Congratulations to both of you on your upcoming marriages btw. & have a great honeymoon.

Hopefully you've planned it appropriately for a slow time in the off season.

 

[JM3]

Heh, well just sayin. Interesting question, if they don’t have such a clause it’s possible they don’t have a problem with guys not wanting to play very often. Anyway, on to the guys still playing. Thanks for rounding up all that info.

No problem! Even if that whole DSL breakdown with promote/repeat/release projections is one of the more unhinged things I've done.

 

[Jimbodandy]

JM3, thanks so much for building up the prospect talk around here. Great stuff.

 

[JM3]

JM3, thanks so much for building up the prospect talk around here. Great stuff.

Thx! It's been a fun few months delving in & it's really cool that people whose stuff I've been citing are now contributing, & your contributions are always great, too.

Now we just need to get Hunter Noll in here posting his highlights straight to the game threads.

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/EdHand89/status/1719549971958055146

 

[JM3]

YORDANNY

View: https://twitter.com/RedSoxPlayerDev/status/1702713797834600934


So much joy.

 

[JM3]

Kind of obvious, but I wasn't really thinking about it when I posted this yesterday, but Minor League free agency also opens 5 days after the World Series ends, so we could be losing any/all of these guys then. I posted about them briefly a few days ago, but here's a bit more detail...

November 2023

Eddy Alvarez (N/A) - signed from the Brewers & fractured his foot in his 1st game with Worcester. Seemed like a fun character with his speed skating background. Despite being 1-1 in is illustrious WooSox career, Alvarez turns 34 in January.

Skylar Arias (#166) - 6'3 lefty who was signed as a MLFA last January. Lots of walks (6.3 per 9) & strikeouts (12.6 per 9) in his 24.1 IP for Portland before getting injured. 4.07 ERA (4.01 xFIP). I probably ranked him a bit too high considering his MLFA status, age, lack of control & especially injury. Thought there was some upside there still, though.

Kyle Barraclough (N/A) - Already declared free agency on 10/10 as was his right as a guy who was DFA'd. Pretty much the one guy who pitched both a lot & well in Worcester this year. His 3.65 ERA was 0.80 better than anyone else with at least 40 innings. He was 3rd on the team with 74 & would have been a fine guy to have around for Minor League depth prior to the BEAR CLAW game.

Cam Booser (#167) - Booser is a 31 y/o lefty who played Indy Ball for the Lancaster Barnstormers last year before signing with the Red Sox this February. Before that he was a Dog (Chicago, Indy) & a Sod Poodle (Amarillo, AA). Throws hard & wasn't totally awful (4.99 ERA, 4.48 xFIP in 57.2 IP). Not sure how much upside there is in a 31 y/o, but maybe Breslow can find it.

Narciso Crook (#187) - Crook, 28, appears to mostly be a clubhouse 1st type of guy at this stage of his career. The light hitting, mediocre fielding, corner outfielder was signed as an MLFA last November. He should not be ranked this highly.

Tyler Dearden (#192) - One third of the triple Tyler attack that Portland deployed sparingly. The 25 y/o corner outfielder repeated AA this year with very similar results - increasing his OPS from .767 to .773, while seeing his playing time decrease from 376 to 286 PAs. Hits ok, but not good enough for a guy who doesn't provide significant defensive value.

Alison Del Orbe (sp.) (#109) - The 1st of 2 converted hitters on this list & the one that intrigues me the most. Alisson was very old for the DSL this year - turning 22 in September, but it was his 1st year pitching, so I'm ok with it. The Rangers released him & he signed with the Red Sox this April. In 29.1 innings he had a 1.23 ERA (3.06 xFIP) & averaged 13.5 k/9. I hope he comes back & gets a chance to start the year in the FCL, or even at Salem if he's looking good enough.

Tyler Esplin (#223) - The next leg of the triple Tyler. Another mostly bat only player whose bat isn't good enough to carry him further. In 71 PAs this year he only walked twice & struck out 22 times, but still somehow managed a 98 wRC+.

Franklin German (#113) - German has kicked around - getting traded for a blacksmith (Theo Denlinger) to clear space on the 40-man roster, then getting released by 2 other teams before meandering back to the Red Sox, where he spent most of the year on various rehab assignments, including being an integral part of the Greenville playoff bullpen. Not sure what to make of him at this point, but he's 26 with an interesting arm & 4 MLB innings under his belt.

Michael Gettys (#183) - Interesting story. Converted from being an outfielder to a pitcher in August '21. Was oddly successful in '22 at Greenville & Portland...at Portland he pitched 18.2 innings striking out 8 & walking 8...but recording an 0.48 ERA with a 6.08 xFIP. & then he missed all of '23 with a pre-existing back injury. It would be a fun story, but he's already 28. He signed with the Red Sox as an MLFA in November '20.

Rio Gomez (#178) - Seems very capped talent-wise. I wrote a long feature on him elsewhere so won't get into it much here. The lefty, who turned 29 a couple weeks ago, had a 4.45 ERA (5.37 xFIP) in 56.2 innings for Worcester this season, & is currently pitching in the LIDOM.

Ronaldo Hernandez (#60) - The one guy on this list who is most prospect adjacent. He's out of Minor League options, & is a Minor League free agent, so unless they think he's ready to contribute to the MLB team, he's in a bit of an awkward spot. He turns 26 next month & plays defense adequately, & hits adequately. He put up identical 93 wRC+ the last 2 years, but increased his walk rate from 4.8% to 10.4% while decreasing his strikeout rate from 21% to 17.6%.

Dominic LoBrutto (#250) - The 27 y/o lefty hasn't pitched in 2 seasons, & wasn't particularly great when last he pitched in '21 (5.35 ERA, 4.17 xFIP). Breslow would really have to work some magic here.

Oddanier Mosqueda (#103) - The last holdover from Ben Cherington...Cherington had a nice run. Mosqueda is still somehow only 24. He was not good for Worcester this year...5.31 ERA, 5.27 xFIP...but he did pitch a lot (4th on the team with 61 innings). Another lefty for Breslow if he sticks around. Would be cool to have players acquired by Cherington, Dombrowski, Romero, Bloom, Romero again, & Breslow...if Breslow ever acquires anyone. I keep refreshing the transactions page with no luck.

Brendan Nail (#138) - Nail was great in AA before struggling in AAA. He's 28. Seemed like a good guy based on the pod Ed did with him. Yet another older lefty of Breslow is interested...

Aaron Perry (#255) - I may have an irrational dislike for Aaron Perry because he was always getting lit up whenever I saw him when I 1st started doing this. The 24 y/o righty had a 9.70 ERA in 21.1 innings in Greenville this year, but only a 3.92 xFIP & 11.8 k/9. So probably underrating him a bit.

Tyreque Reed (#245) - Reed used to hit well...160 wRC+ in A+ in '21 with 14 homers in 215 PAs, but then stopped. 95 wRC+ in Portland that year, 74 in Portland in '22 & missed all of last season with an injury. Minor League Rule 5 pick in '20. Don't really see much future for the 26 y/o.
Victor Santos

Sterling Sharp (#218) - I believe he was the only MLFA they brought back last season. 28 y/o org arm without stuff that really plays. Eats some innings as necessary, but hoping they have enough usable prospect depth that they won't need so many innings from a guy like this next year (85.2 IP, 5.36 ERA, 4.95 xFIP).

Bradley Zimmer (N/A) - Turns 31 soon. Former MLB player but basically org depth at this point. .660 OPS for Worcester this year.

https://soxprospects.com/mlfa.htm

I finished this post on my phone & somehow deleted Victor Santos (#126). Santos is only 23 & was acquired from the Phillies in the CJ Chatham trade in July '21. In '22, Santos was used primarily as a starter, pitching 101.1 innings in AA with a 4.97 ERA (4.54 xFIP) before being promoted to AAA where he pitched another 43.2 innings with a 4.95 ERA (4.01 xFIP). He also pitched 14.1 innings in LIDOM for Leones del Escogido with a 1.88 ERA. Santos missed all of '23 after experiencing arm discomfort in Spring Training.

But that brings me to some exciting news...Victor Santos joins Rio Gomez in the category of Red Sox MLFAs playing in LIDOM this season. He pitched 1 game for Leones so far this season, 2 scoreless, hitless innings with 2 walks & 2 strikeouts.

 

[JM3]

#NotasRojas Víctor Santos is available to make his season debut tonight. The right-hander has a 2.32 career ERA in the Lidom, including 32 strikeouts in 31.0 innings.

View: https://twitter.com/EscogidoBBClub/status/1718382159029800979