Minor League Thread 2024
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Ross Jensen has Blaze #5 for 1B.
View: https://twitter.com/RossJensen12/status/1748085891288207759
View: https://twitter.com/RossJensen12/status/1748085882492801389
Jensen has TEEL 3rd among catchers.
View: https://twitter.com/RossJensen12/status/1747741779582193734
View: https://twitter.com/RossJensen12/status/1747741785449955471
Jensen has Yorke 6th among 2B:
View: https://twitter.com/RossJensen12/status/1748425650191700035
View: https://twitter.com/RossJensen12/status/1748425667769991181
Yorke didn't make the Pipeline list.
View: https://twitter.com/RossJensen12/status/1748425650191700035
... except in the embedded stuff he has Yorke 9th.
View: https://twitter.com/RossJensen12/status/1748425667769991181
Yorke didn't make the Pipeline list.
https://www.mlb.com/news/top-second-base-prospects-for-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
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This came up last time I posted some of Jensen's rankings. I think they're more fantasy related so they would look at things like positional shortage (not many good 1B) & offense over defense. Not 100% sure, but I wouldn't take it too seriously.
Here are the Pipeline SS rankings.
The Top 10 (ETA)
1. Jackson Holliday, Orioles (2024)
2. Colson Montgomery, White Sox (2024)
3. Jordan Lawlar, D-backs (2024)
4. Jackson Merrill, Padres (2024)
5. Marcelo Mayer, Red Sox (2024)
6. Brooks Lee, Twins (2024)
7. Carson Williams, Rays (2025)
8. Adael Amador, Rockies (2025)
9. Cole Young, Mariners (2025)
10. Marco Luciano, Giants (2024)
https://www.mlb.com/news/top-shortstop-prospects-for-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
The Top 10 (ETA)
1. Jackson Holliday, Orioles (2024)
2. Colson Montgomery, White Sox (2024)
3. Jordan Lawlar, D-backs (2024)
4. Jackson Merrill, Padres (2024)
5. Marcelo Mayer, Red Sox (2024)
6. Brooks Lee, Twins (2024)
7. Carson Williams, Rays (2025)
8. Adael Amador, Rockies (2025)
9. Cole Young, Mariners (2025)
10. Marco Luciano, Giants (2024)
https://www.mlb.com/news/top-shortstop-prospects-for-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
It's very rarely seen FRAYMI content!
https://bloggingtheredsox.com/2024/01/23/how-did-red-sox-prospect-fraymi-de-leon-fare-in-2023/
Here are the Pipeline OF rankings:
The Top 10 (ETA)
1. Jackson Chourio, Brewers (2024)
2. Evan Carter, Rangers (2024)
3. Wyatt Langford, Rangers (2024)
4. Dylan Crews, Nationals (2024)
5. Walker Jenkins, Twins (2026)
6. Max Clark, Tigers (2026)
7. James Wood, Nationals (2024)
8. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs (2024)
9. Colton Cowser, Orioles (2024)
10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (2025)
https://www.mlb.com/news/top-outfield-prospects-for-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
The Top 10 (ETA)
1. Jackson Chourio, Brewers (2024)
2. Evan Carter, Rangers (2024)
3. Wyatt Langford, Rangers (2024)
4. Dylan Crews, Nationals (2024)
5. Walker Jenkins, Twins (2026)
6. Max Clark, Tigers (2026)
7. James Wood, Nationals (2024)
8. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs (2024)
9. Colton Cowser, Orioles (2024)
10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (2025)
https://www.mlb.com/news/top-outfield-prospects-for-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
Glad to see Blaze getting some love. And maybe it's a bad picture, but Jackson Holliday looks like he needs to eat a few cheeseburgers.
Honestly having ROMAN behind Cowser is extremely questionable. & there are ~somewhat good faith arguments to make that he could be ranked ahead of some other guys, too.
Quick refresher on The Empire:
Does not turn 20 until May: 164 wRC+ in 245 A+ PAs & 185 wRC+ in 44 PAs. Some chance of sticking in CF.
#9 Colton Cowser - Turns 24 in March & in his repeat AAA this year put up a solid, but unremarkable 136 wRC+ in 399 PAs as well as a 40 wRC+ in 77 MLB PAs. He also projects as a corner outfielder due to lack of foot speed. This ranking seems to be residual from Coswer being the 5th pick in '21.
#8 Pete Crow-Armstrong - This one seems closer. PCA turns 22 in March & has already made his MLB debut...unfortunately for him he was 0-14 with 3 walks & 2 sac bunts during that debut. In his age 20 season ('22), PCA crushed A-Ball & was quickly promoted to High-A where he had a 125 wRC+ in 288 PAs (1 year older than Roman's '23, 40 points worse wRC+ at the same primary level). In '23, PCA hit well in AA (136 wRC+ in 342 PAs) & ok in AAA (106 wRC+ in 158 PAs). The advantage PCA has over Roman is elite speed. He is very likely to provide plus defense in CF. The question is, will he be able to hit MLB pitching. But there is definitely a case to be made that PCA should be currently ahead of Roman.
#7 James Wood - Again, I don't really get this one, although it definitely makes a lot more sense than Cowser. Wood turned 21 in September so he is 20 months older than Roman. He played at similar levels this year (although getting to AA for more of the season), putting up a 155 wRC+ in 181 PAs in High-A & 124 wRC+ in 368 PAs in AA. The most alarming thing, though, is the 33.7% strikeout rate in AA. Wood spent his AA season splitting time between CF & RF, & likely projects as a pretty good RF.
#6 Max Clark - Clark was the 3rd overall pick this past season & received a +$7m signing bonus. It seems a bit speculative to rank him above Roman without really having a body of work, but I'm not a HS scout, & the pedigree is definitely there. Clark put up a 146 wRC+ in 56 Complex League PAs before struggling in 53 A-Ball PAs, 73 wRC+, 6-39 with 12 walks & 15 strikeouts. Clark turned 19 last month.
#5 Walker Jenkins - Similar story with Jenkins who was the 5th overall pick & also received a +$7m signing bonus. The main difference is that Jenkins did well in his A-Ball SSS, 138 wRC+ in 59 Complex League PAs & 182 in 56 A-Ball PAs. Jenkins turns 19 next month.
#4 Dylan Crews - & then we go even higher on the pedigree with '23 2nd overall pick, Crews, who received a +$8m signing bonus. Crews turns 22 in February & raked in A-Ball (192 wRC+ in 71 PAs) that the Nats decided to skip High-A entirely & sent him straight to AA, where he struggled (73 wRC+ in 85 PAs). What to make of the fact that he's more than 2 years older than Roman & did far worse in AA than Roman? Probably nothing, but I'll point it out anyway.
Quick refresher on The Empire:
Does not turn 20 until May: 164 wRC+ in 245 A+ PAs & 185 wRC+ in 44 PAs. Some chance of sticking in CF.
#9 Colton Cowser - Turns 24 in March & in his repeat AAA this year put up a solid, but unremarkable 136 wRC+ in 399 PAs as well as a 40 wRC+ in 77 MLB PAs. He also projects as a corner outfielder due to lack of foot speed. This ranking seems to be residual from Coswer being the 5th pick in '21.
https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/15/2023-5-prospect-colton-cowser-of/
#8 Pete Crow-Armstrong - This one seems closer. PCA turns 22 in March & has already made his MLB debut...unfortunately for him he was 0-14 with 3 walks & 2 sac bunts during that debut. In his age 20 season ('22), PCA crushed A-Ball & was quickly promoted to High-A where he had a 125 wRC+ in 288 PAs (1 year older than Roman's '23, 40 points worse wRC+ at the same primary level). In '23, PCA hit well in AA (136 wRC+ in 342 PAs) & ok in AAA (106 wRC+ in 158 PAs). The advantage PCA has over Roman is elite speed. He is very likely to provide plus defense in CF. The question is, will he be able to hit MLB pitching. But there is definitely a case to be made that PCA should be currently ahead of Roman.
#7 James Wood - Again, I don't really get this one, although it definitely makes a lot more sense than Cowser. Wood turned 21 in September so he is 20 months older than Roman. He played at similar levels this year (although getting to AA for more of the season), putting up a 155 wRC+ in 181 PAs in High-A & 124 wRC+ in 368 PAs in AA. The most alarming thing, though, is the 33.7% strikeout rate in AA. Wood spent his AA season splitting time between CF & RF, & likely projects as a pretty good RF.
#6 Max Clark - Clark was the 3rd overall pick this past season & received a +$7m signing bonus. It seems a bit speculative to rank him above Roman without really having a body of work, but I'm not a HS scout, & the pedigree is definitely there. Clark put up a 146 wRC+ in 56 Complex League PAs before struggling in 53 A-Ball PAs, 73 wRC+, 6-39 with 12 walks & 15 strikeouts. Clark turned 19 last month.
#5 Walker Jenkins - Similar story with Jenkins who was the 5th overall pick & also received a +$7m signing bonus. The main difference is that Jenkins did well in his A-Ball SSS, 138 wRC+ in 59 Complex League PAs & 182 in 56 A-Ball PAs. Jenkins turns 19 next month.
#4 Dylan Crews - & then we go even higher on the pedigree with '23 2nd overall pick, Crews, who received a +$8m signing bonus. Crews turns 22 in February & raked in A-Ball (192 wRC+ in 71 PAs) that the Nats decided to skip High-A entirely & sent him straight to AA, where he struggled (73 wRC+ in 85 PAs). What to make of the fact that he's more than 2 years older than Roman & did far worse in AA than Roman? Probably nothing, but I'll point it out anyway.
I could do a similar pushback on some of the guys ranked ahead of Blaze as I did on Roman. 1B is just a really weak position for prospects.
Blaze turned 21 last month, so in his age 20 season he did the following:
High-A: 145 wRC+ in 322 PAs
AA: 89 wRC+ in 203 PAs
#6 Matt Mervis - Turns 26 in April. 46 wRC+ in 99 MLB PAs last year, 132 wRC+ in 441 PAs in AAA. 39th round pick in 2016. Does not seem that prospect-y. Was also a negative fielder with 5th percentile sprint speed so he's not exactly making up ground there.
#5 Tyler Locklear - Turned 23 2 months ago. Was a 2nd round pick in '22, $1.3m bonus. Blaze was a 3rd rounder in '20, but signed a $1.75m bonus. Locklear played the same levels as Blaze this season while being 2 years older:
High-A: 162 wRC+ in 275 PAs
AA: 114 wRC+ in 94 PAs
So a bit better than Blaze, but 25 months is kind of a big deal at this stage of development.
#4 Abimelec Ortiz - Turns 22 next month, so a year older than Blaze, but played in lower levels than Blaze this year.
A-Ball: 170 wRC+ in 121 PAs
High-A: 157 wRC+ in 333 PAs
He certainly raked, including 26 homers in High-A (compared to 12 for Blaze), but it will be interesting to see how he progresses as he moves through the system, & Blaze being a 1/2 level ahead & a year younger isn't insignificant.
Can't really make a good faith argument for him being ahead of #3 Schanuel, #2 Manzardo or #1 Isaac (although I would rate Schanuel ahead of Manzardo).
I guess he's working on it. This was from last off season:
View: https://www.instagram.com/p/CoQDO6sjzEt/
& apparently he's adding more muscle this off season:
https://www.mlb.com/news/jackson-holliday-orioles-opening-day-roster
This stuff kind of goes with my attitude toward this forum...
View: https://twitter.com/EmilyCWaldon/status/1750694614061727796
View: https://twitter.com/ByAndrewParker/status/1750701184107585713
View: https://twitter.com/EmilyCWaldon/status/1750694614061727796
View: https://twitter.com/ByAndrewParker/status/1750701184107585713
It's not just on social media, either. I saw some pretty ugly shit working at the AA stadium down here. It's just gross.
A great reminder from Emily. A lot of us don't know what a player is working on (e.g. pitchers being told to shelve their best pitch to focus on developing their secondary pitches) or working through (away from family for the first time, experiencing adversity for the first time, being human, etc.). As easy as it is for Johnny from Burger King to chirp from the 4th row, it is exponentially easier for him to tweet even worse.
Pipeline is doing their top 100 rankings reveal tonight on MLB Network.
View: https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1750897197250461754
View: https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1750897197250461754
Google was my friend on this one. But yeah, no one even R5'd him this year.
The most interesting name on there to me was actually Alex Hoppe, even if it probably should have been Yorke or Chainsaw would say ROSIER.
Or I could be excited about the 100 mph man.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/01/red-sox-prospect-up-to-1001-mph-with-fb-invited-to-spring-training-as-nri.html
Stats says this like it's a bad thing.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1751048370188173471
(I mean part of it is, but meh)
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1751048370188173471
(I mean part of it is, but meh)
This is a Dynasty Fantasy Baseball article on the Red Sox.
For MLB it mentions Abreu as a sleeper, Grissom as a breakout & Duran as a bust.
For MiLB or mentions Perales as a sleeper...
For MLB it mentions Abreu as a sleeper, Grissom as a breakout & Duran as a bust.
For MiLB or mentions Perales as a sleeper...
& Nazzan as a breakout...
https://www.thedynastydugout.com/p/boston-red-sox-dynasty-sleepers-breakouts
BCamp on NRI Justin Hagenman who was acquired in the Kiké trade.
Hagenman is a bit old to be too exciting & seems unlikely to be more than semi-competent. Best case I think, considering our 40-man bullpen depth, is he pitches well in Spring Training & has trade value for a younger flyer.
https://bloggingtheredsox.com/2024/01/26/red-sox-invite-righty-from-kike-hernandez-trade-to-spring-training/
Hagenman is a bit old to be too exciting & seems unlikely to be more than semi-competent. Best case I think, considering our 40-man bullpen depth, is he pitches well in Spring Training & has trade value for a younger flyer.
Stats has pretty noticeably bought into the outrage this winter. Would I like Montgomery on the team this winter? Of course. "Insane"? No, it's really not.
I do feel like I'd be surprised to see Mata make the team at this point. JM3, any insight into what's going on with him these days?
I do feel like I'd be surprised to see Mata make the team at this point. JM3, any insight into what's going on with him these days?
Yeah, I mean there's no reason not to consider them part of the mix right now, no matter what else they do, considering the combination of stuff & lack of options for both.
I think most of the outrage is a bit over the top... but if they don't spend to the point of being within a reasonable buffer from the tax line, it's a pretty pretty big red flag because there's no competitive advantage to being cheaper.
I hadn't heard anything about Mata lately. I was trying to find some stuff on Twitter the other day but couldn't. He hasn't posted on Twitter or Instagram in months.
In December, Breslow said Mata was most likely transitioning to the bullpen, but that wasn't really new news as the writing was kind of on the wall.
I just found this from @byAndrewParker where he talked to Brian Abraham about Mata:
View: https://twitter.com/ByAndrewParker/status/1751366673343340909/
It doesn't really answer much other than saying that Mata will only be on the Major League roster if he's good at baseball, though, & confirming the bullpen thing.
Tyler Milliken dropped a top 10 prospect list...
1) Roman
2) Mayer
3) Teel
4) C Note
5) Bleis
6) Abreu
7) Cespedes
8) Wikelman
9) Yorke
10) Perales
https://985thesportshub.com/listicle/milliken-my-top-10-red-sox-prospects/
Nothing too unusual in there, but some pretty good little writeups.
1) Roman
2) Mayer
3) Teel
4) C Note
5) Bleis
6) Abreu
7) Cespedes
8) Wikelman
9) Yorke
10) Perales
https://985thesportshub.com/listicle/milliken-my-top-10-red-sox-prospects/
Nothing too unusual in there, but some pretty good little writeups.
I, for one, am outraged by your not so subtle outrage towards the level of collective outrage currently permeating the fanbase. Frankly, it's outrageous. And yeah, if you're making a trade to acquire a guy from the Rule V draft, it kinda stands to reason you'd wanna keep him on the roster, barring some unforseen opportunity falling into your lap. Wild times.
If Nick Sogard is somehow a competent 1B he probably makes more sense for the '24 Red Sox roster than Dalbec.
Buuuut in his MiLB career games by position...
3B - 154
2B - 112
SS - 85
RF - 20
LF - 11
CF - 4
1B - 0
C - 0
On the plus side, unlike guys like Valdez, he is 6'1, so there is at least some chance he could be a decent 1B. Just a thought, & not really a great solution, but his bat-to-ball skills & versatility could be useful in ways that Dalbec isn't really if they choose not to bring in anyone from the outside.
Blaze is really the guy who makes the most sense for that role, but he's not ready.
https://bloggingtheredsox.com/2024/01/27/versatile-red-sox-prospect-nick-sogard-set-to-attend-second-consecutive-mlb-spring-training-camp/
Buuuut in his MiLB career games by position...
3B - 154
2B - 112
SS - 85
RF - 20
LF - 11
CF - 4
1B - 0
C - 0
On the plus side, unlike guys like Valdez, he is 6'1, so there is at least some chance he could be a decent 1B. Just a thought, & not really a great solution, but his bat-to-ball skills & versatility could be useful in ways that Dalbec isn't really if they choose not to bring in anyone from the outside.
Blaze is really the guy who makes the most sense for that role, but he's not ready.
I wasn't talking about "the fanbase". I was talking about this forum (SoxStats is one of us). I get that we're all disappointed that Boston won't give Montgomery a Nolaesque contract. But getting angry that Boston isn't getting rid of talent for nothing is more than a little silly.
I can't tell if my sarcasm in the first sentence there didn't convey properly, or if you just thought it was a dumb post, which admittedly, it may have been. I was agreeing with both of your points though. It was a lame attempt at a joke, jumping off of your statement that "The determination to be outraged around here is exhausting sometimes." Maybe I should have followed it up with something like, "Did I do that right?" The larger point being that the general fanbase has whipped itself into such a frenzy of late, we are now seeing many of those same unhinged takes becoming prevalent here on SoSh as well.
Given the manner in which he was acquired, Slaten was always gonna be a guy that stuck around for a while, so being surprised that he's still in a position to possibly make the roster at this point seems...odd. Thinking that it is "insane" is kinda...well, insane. If other guys outpitch Slaten and/or Mata in spring training, by all means, cut them loose. If we manage to acquire two pitchers better suited for the roster between now and then, wish them well in their future endeavors. At the moment, they are serving as cheap, valuable insurance policies should neither of those two situations present themselves. And that's not even factoring in how the calculus changes if opportunities arise to improve the overall team through trades of other likely bullpen contributors. Basically, I couldn't agree more with your statement that "getting angry that Boston isn't getting rid of talent for nothing is more than a little silly."
I was just clarifying what I meant. I mean there's general anger/annoyance in the community, but my interactions are here. I sometimes read Red Sox Twitter, but I don't interact with them. But, yeah, people are getting angry at the silliest things.
I put this convo in the Greenville thread, but it doesn't really belong there. Here are our top MiLB pitchers in bb/9 in '23 with outgoing guys underlined & incoming bonded.
Jedixson Paez 1.3 (A)
Jordan DiValerio 1.9 (A+)
Max Castillo 2.2 (AAA) - MLFA
Brock Bell 2.3 (A, A+) - MiLB R5
Cooper Criswell 2.4 (AAA) - FA
Richard Fitts 2.5 (AA) - Verdugo trade
Isaac Coffey 2.5 (A+, AA)
Hunter Dobbins 2.5 (A+, AA)
Justin Hagenman 2.6 (AAA)
Nick Robertson 2.7 (AAA) - trade for O'Neill
Ryan Miller 2.8 (AA) - MiLB R5
Justin Slaten 3.0 (AA, AAA) - R5
Ryan Fernandez 3.0 (A, AA, AAA) - R5
Gabriel Jackson 3.0 (A, A+)
Cristian Nunez 3.1 (FCL, A)
Brian Van Belle 3.2 (AA, AAA)
Alex Hoppe 3.2 (A+, AA)
Grant Gambrell 3.3 (A+, AA, AAA)
Jonathan Brand 3.3 (A)
Brandon Walter 3.4 (AAA)
Nathan Landry 3.5 (A, A+)
Yordanny Monegro 3.6 (FCL, A, A+)
Cam Booser 3.7 (AAA)
Greg Weissert 3.8 (AAA) - Verdugo trade
Juan Daniel Encarnacion 3.8 (A+)
Taylor Broadway 3.9 (AA, AAA)
Angel Bastardo 4.1 (A+, AA)
Breslow definitely seems to have a type. Will be fun to watch the pitching group develop this year.
Jedixson Paez 1.3 (A)
Jordan DiValerio 1.9 (A+)
Max Castillo 2.2 (AAA) - MLFA
Brock Bell 2.3 (A, A+) - MiLB R5
Cooper Criswell 2.4 (AAA) - FA
Richard Fitts 2.5 (AA) - Verdugo trade
Isaac Coffey 2.5 (A+, AA)
Hunter Dobbins 2.5 (A+, AA)
Justin Hagenman 2.6 (AAA)
Nick Robertson 2.7 (AAA) - trade for O'Neill
Ryan Miller 2.8 (AA) - MiLB R5
Justin Slaten 3.0 (AA, AAA) - R5
Ryan Fernandez 3.0 (A, AA, AAA) - R5
Gabriel Jackson 3.0 (A, A+)
Cristian Nunez 3.1 (FCL, A)
Brian Van Belle 3.2 (AA, AAA)
Alex Hoppe 3.2 (A+, AA)
Grant Gambrell 3.3 (A+, AA, AAA)
Jonathan Brand 3.3 (A)
Brandon Walter 3.4 (AAA)
Nathan Landry 3.5 (A, A+)
Yordanny Monegro 3.6 (FCL, A, A+)
Cam Booser 3.7 (AAA)
Greg Weissert 3.8 (AAA) - Verdugo trade
Juan Daniel Encarnacion 3.8 (A+)
Taylor Broadway 3.9 (AA, AAA)
Angel Bastardo 4.1 (A+, AA)
Breslow definitely seems to have a type. Will be fun to watch the pitching group develop this year.
Forgot Isaiah Campbell. He put up 2.6 bb/9 in AA last year.
Walk rate wasn't as good in MLB, but pretty big jump from AA & he was consistently in the 2s in his MiLB career.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/01/red-sox-reliever-from-seattle-trade-has-mid-90s-fb-slider-with-137-baa.html
Kiley McDaniel's Top 100:
23. Roman Anthony (55 FV)
28. Marcelo Mayer (55 FV)
61. Kyle Teel (50 FV)
www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/39420988/top-100-mlb-prospects-list-2024-kiley-mcdaniel-jackson-holliday-jackson-chourio
Maybe I'll update my rankings & start a new rankings thread later.
23. Roman Anthony (55 FV)
28. Marcelo Mayer (55 FV)
61. Kyle Teel (50 FV)
www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/39420988/top-100-mlb-prospects-list-2024-kiley-mcdaniel-jackson-holliday-jackson-chourio
Maybe I'll update my rankings & start a new rankings thread later.