Ok, I take back everything I said about walk rates.
Fitts also did a Fangraphs Q&A.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/01/mlb-insider-floats-potential-return-if-red-sox-trade-kenley-jansen.html
Some Adón content from BCamp:
Pandemic in '20 & then shoulder surgery in February '21...
https://bloggingtheredsox.com/2024/01/31/red-sox-sign-former-giants-pitching-prospect-melvin-adon-to-minor-league-deal/
Honestly it's just weird to me. BA had the Red Sox #5 mid season. Since then they've added Fitts, Roman has continued to rise, Wikelman, Perales & Yordanny all pitched well after promotions, Abreu had success in MLB while still retaining prospect status, Teel flourished, they overturned their whole pitching development program with some of the smartest minds in the industry, it was realized that Mayer's struggles were due to a fluke shoulder injury & the best outgoing prospect is Drohan. The depth of the system is so good that we lost an absurd # of players in the 2 R5 drafts. No one who would actually impact the rankings (except maybe Drohan who is lower rated than Fitts), but a good indicator of a healthy system.
Eh, I mean I disagree, but it's a valid opinion. I think they have a lot of pitchers who have the potential to take jumps in a quantity over quality way, & I think they have several other interesting guys beyond just the big 3.
Good summation. I'd add JOHANFRAN, Paez, Castro, Paulino, Brannon & several of the other '23 DSL guys like Arias, Musett, Batista & Starlyn as people who could pop this year. Also Penrod, Hoppe, Bastardo & Song.
I’d also add there is a much stronger chance this season that the FO will be willing to pull all possible triggers to inject more talent into the system before the deadline and NOT hang onto departing/older players in some false hope. Certainly looks like the team plans to have the payroll at a level that will facilitate paying full freight on any expiring contract in order to maximize the return.
Can't wait to see the system bump once Bonaci is vindicated (no idea, but this seems vaguely optimistic).
Yup. He's higher on most of our hitters than most. But will probably still not rank the system high.
I was going to say basically the same thing. From his age 25-30 seasons, JBJ was an effective, positive player. The pinnacle of the defensive value was '18 when despite a 90 wRC+ he was still worth 3.4 fWAR (& proving the Red Sox can win the title with a defense 1st CF), & of course there was the magical '16 season with the 118 wRC+ & 5.6 fWAR (5.8 bWAR).
Law, I think, tends to care a lot about players' floors, and Rafaela's defense gives him a very high floor relative to his peers. Supposedly, he is so good in CF (I have not seen as much of him as some) that if he hits literally at all, he is a very valuable player. His baserunning is pretty good, too, so he is a guy who could be valuable even as a moderately low OBP kind of player.
I don't know of an analysis that averages future value by position in top-100 prospect lists but I would guess JBJ's 14.4 fWAR is greater than average for the 32nd prospect in baseball. JBJ actually was MLB.com's #32 prospect in 2013 and #33 in 2014.
In his 11 MLB seasons, JBJ hit .225/.303/.381/.684 and in HOF Stats:
I'm honestly not sure what argument you're trying to build here. JBJ had three years he went 123, 118, and 118 in wRC+ (2015, 2016, and 2020). He was quite valuable in those years. Even when he was an 89-90wRC+ guy from 2017-2019 he put up 2.4, 3.4, and 1.9 fWAR because of his defense.
To repeat: the question is, What wins more ball games: offense or defense? Do you think his bat kept him in the lineup?
The point is that his was not remotely close to a HOF player. Yes, he was a very good fielder but for most of the time there were enough bats surrounding him that they could afford to keep him for his glove and occasional hot streaks at the plate. In six of his eleven seasons, he played in fewer than 100 games and in his rookie season, he started the first 10 games before they decided his .097 batting average wasn't enough.
20) Hunter Dobbins (23, 18)
Rogers turned 23 a couple weeks ago & is a fairly rare potential lefty starter in the org, although he seems to profile more like a reliever unless he can take some jumps in a couple areas.
I like that you're seeing Campbell. Lots of good to hope on there.
