Minor League Thread 2024

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,307
Here's mine, from some research I was doing earlier. (You can ignore the third guy, jon abbey thinks he's cool, though)

View attachment 80009
Sorry, I didn't mean to not engage with this. I was just living my best Montgomery = starter Bernardino comp life.

But I'm not sure what the overarching thesis is. I do expect Kutter to have a better season than Montgomery this year (assuming health, but especially when adjusting for park factors), but it has almost nothing to do with what kind of pitcher Montgomery was 4 to 7 years ago.

& that also has almost nothing to do with whether signing other JM would be a good idea or not.

If the Red Sox end the year this far under the CBT line, I will be embarrassed for them. Even if they're cash poor, they can do more deals like the Bello deal where they increased their CBT # but it had almost no impact on their outgoing cash this year. Not using that buffer under the tax this year would be detrimental to future financial flexibility.

The Red Sox Payroll guy has the Sox just about exactly $25m under the tax line, so they probably couldn't really sign other JM & stay under the tax without moving a guy like Martin or Kenley, & then what's really the point?

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1772379007280939310

New info from Chris, here. A bit surprising it's that much more than the league min, but a small number that easily fits into their CBT space. Anderson + Joely could make a combined $2.75MM for a whole season + incentives. The updated projected CBT number is now ~$215.75MM, ~$25.25MM below the first threshold.
I just hope they get really creative with that space. Whether it means things are going badly & you trade a subsidized Kenley/Martin/etc., whether it means taking on someone's bad contract + a prospect, or whether it means extensions for Casas, C Note, Crawford, Houck, ATM, etc etc.

There are much more interesting uses for that space than Montgomery. But they better use it somehow.
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
30,262
Alamogordo
Eh, it's just an anecdote to show that Kutter's numbers from 25-27 have been pretty similar to what Montgomery did at the same age. There's plenty of reason to discount it, since a lot of Kutter's numbers are as a reliever, and JM dealt with a TJS in the middle of it, but it's fun to look at and we were doing hot takes.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,307
Eh, it's just an anecdote to show that Kutter's numbers from 25-27 have been pretty similar to what Montgomery did at the same age. There's plenty of reason to discount it, since a lot of Kutter's numbers are as a reliever, and JM dealt with a TJS in the middle of it, but it's fun to look at and we were doing hot takes.
Lol sorry wasn't trying to be rude. It's an interesting comparison. What's the take, though?

& I might have gone off on a bit of a tangent not directed at you because I don't really express MLB opinions anymore :)
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
30,262
Alamogordo
Oh sorry. AHEM

My Opening Day Eve hot take is that Kutter Crawford will be a better pitcher over the next five years than Jordan Montgomery. He will pitch more inning, have better peripherals and his K, BB, and HR rates will be better.

Also, his name is way fucking cooler.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,307
Oh sorry. AHEM

My Opening Day Eve hot take is that Kutter Crawford will be a better pitcher over the next five years than Jordan Montgomery. He will pitch more inning, have better peripherals and his K, BB, and HR rates will be better.

Also, his name is way fucking cooler.
My initial thought was that these are just things I believe to be correct, & not a hot take, but let me put my thought on each of those takes in the form of the % I think they are likely to happen.

Better pitcher over next 5 years (WAR?) - 79%
More innings - 46%
Better peripherals - 87%
K-rate - 99%
BB-rate - 53%
HR-rate - 38%
Name cooler - 100%
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,307
Oh sorry. AHEM

My Opening Day Eve hot take is that Kutter Crawford will be a better pitcher over the next five years than Jordan Montgomery. He will pitch more inning, have better peripherals and his K, BB, and HR rates will be better.

Also, his name is way fucking cooler.
This TJStats guy may think the Red Sox suck (74 wins, last place).

View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1773082494981591441/photo/1


But of his 10 bold predictions, 2 relate to Red Sox pitchers, including Koolname Kutter:

View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1773060468334084126


& his binkie Slaten:

View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1773060475577594238


From Speier's AMA:80038
If Speier properly had Campbell in the top 25, this never would have happened.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,307
So how's this for a hot take...Jordan Montgomery is starter Brennan Bernardino & the Red Sox clearly aren't that into Bernardino so this is not surprising.
Monty = workhorse Berny take is gaining steam <3

The baseball argument is they liked Giolito's (potential) stuff better. I like Montgomery a lot but he's not exactly a stuff+ darling. Of 44 qualified starters he was 30th by stuff+, 26th by location+ and 40th by pitching+, and that's consistent with his profile. Giolito's year wasn't great either, but he's shown in the past that he was capable of much nastier pitches and there was plenty of reporting this winter about them working to get him back there.

It's petty clear there's substantial buy-in to driveline philosophies at play here (including hiring driveline guys). For an in-house example, look at Bernardino, who by more conventional metrics was maybe our second best reliever last year, and had a 0 ERA on 0.75 WHIP this spring. But by pitching+ he was 197th/198 (relievers, min 40 IP), and now he's in AAA.
 

The Gray Eagle

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
17,025
Just looking at Sox Prospects to see where guys will start the season:
https://soxprospects.com/2024.htm
They list Yordanny and Mikey Romero not with any team but under XST Taxi Squad. Does that mean they are injured? That they are healthy but won't be starting the season with an affiliate but instead will stay in extended spring training at first? Both?

I was looking forward to checking out Greenville's rotation, which still looks fun even without Yordanny, but would be even more exciting with him:
Perales, Sandlin, Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Dalton Rogers and Paez.
 

sittingstill

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
1,596
Bay State Road
Just looking at Sox Prospects to see where guys will start the season:
https://soxprospects.com/2024.htm
They list Yordanny and Mikey Romero not with any team but under XST Taxi Squad. Does that mean they are injured? That they are healthy but won't be starting the season with an affiliate but instead will stay in extended spring training at first? Both?

I was looking forward to checking out Greenville's rotation, which still looks fun even without Yordanny, but would be even more exciting with him:
Perales, Sandlin, Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Dalton Rogers and Paez.
Alex Speier said Romero was healthy but they were bringing him back slowly after the injuries last year. FWIW I was there March 16-23 and didn't lay eyes on him. I did see Yordanny throw long toss (and PFP earlier in the month)


but last week he was throwing with a group that included some injured/rehabbing pitchers so they may just be dealing with something small while not wanting to rush him.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,888
As the Sox try to help their young pitchers, they’re going to make some changes to the structure of their work. Perhaps most notable: From Double A down, the organization will employ six-man rotations with multi-innings relievers behind them. With minor league affiliates having virtually all Mondays off, the once-a-week starting schedule will permit structured routines for goal-oriented side work.
A look at the Red Sox’ minor league affiliates and the top prospects at each level (bostonglobe.com)
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,307
I wonder when someone is going to tell Speier this isn't new?

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1774931627451535392

See for example this thread:

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/8-29-2023-milb-from-the-future.40320/

Which includes posts like this:

So here's the most aggressive promotion proposal I can make, which I don't think will actually happen, but I think I can justify it if they went this route...

MLB - 1 of Bear Claw/Walter/Murphy, can rotate, but starts with Bear Claw potentially being promoted today.

Worcester rotation (5-man):
Tuesday: Dobbins (promoted)
Wednesday: Van Belle
Thursday: Drohan
Friday: Gambrell
Saturday: Walter

Portland rotation (6-man):
Tuesday: Liu
Wednesday: Bastardo
Thursday: Coffey
Friday: Penrod (promoted)
Saturday: Perales (promoted)
Sunday: Wikelman

Greenville rotation (6-man):
Tuesday: Ramirez (promoted)
Wednesday: Song
Thursday: Rogers
Friday: Yordanny (promoted)
Saturday: JDE
Sunday: Paez (promoted)

Salem rotation (6-man):
Tuesday: Cohen (promoted)
Wednesday: Elvis
Thursday: Van Der Schaaf (promoted)
Friday: Nunez
Saturday: Dean
Sunday: De La Rosa (elevated from RP)
 
Last edited:

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,307
Pipeline did a prediction for 1 guy from each org. Ours was ROMAN:

Red Sox: Roman Anthony, OF (No. 2/MLB No. 23)
After thriving in High-A and Double-A as a teenager in his first full pro season, Anthony will more than double his home run production from 14 last year to 30 this summer. He'll become the first 20-year-old Boston prospect to reach the 30-homer plateau since Jim Rice in 1973.
https://www.mlb.com/news/one-2024-prospect-prediction-for-each-team?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
 

mwonow

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 4, 2005
7,226
I must be old - I thought that sentence would end with Tony C.

32 at age 20. In Boston. F Jack Hamilton, again and forever
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,606

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,307
Weighing age and level of competition, it’s gotta be Roman though still, no?
It depends on what you're looking for in a Player of the Week, but that's basically what I was getting at with my ROMAN vote.

His week was both not particularly surprising, but also the most exciting.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,307
BEARCLAW follows Dave Bush to Texas on a minors deal.
I had started a post in OPP about how Luis De La Rosa was traded to the Atlantic League, & former Sox Aaron Perry (Cubs) & Bear Claw (Rangers) had both recently signed with MLB orgs... but then I got distracted & didn't think anyone would care anyway lol

https://atlanticleague.com/
 

ZMart100

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2008
3,234
I don't think any of those bats need protecting. The pitchers might, but I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of them on the roster by the end of the season.
 

Merkle's Boner

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2011
3,864
I would hope we could get something for Yorke and/or Blaze so if they’re not planning on adding them to the 40, let’s make a deal.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
25,217
Miami (oh, Miami!)

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
6,844
The back of your computer
I don't think any of those bats need protecting. The pitchers might, but I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of them on the roster by the end of the season.
Player (level, soxprospect ranking) OPS stats

Kavadas (AAA, SP57) .307/.463/.663/1.126
Lugo (AA, SP50) .296/.395/.643/1.038
Paulino (AA, SP15) .255/.347/.443/.791
Jordan (AA, inj, SP17) .283/.342/.414/.756
Hickey (AAA, SP19) .215/.318/.346/.664
Yorke (AA, SP11) .253/.343/.383/.726
Castro (A+, SP14) .207/.343/.319/.662
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,606
Player (level, soxprospect ranking) OPS stats

Kavadas (AAA, SP57) .307/.463/.663/1.126
Lugo (AA, SP50) .296/.395/.643/1.038
Paulino (AA, SP15) .255/.347/.443/.791
Jordan (AA, inj, SP17) .283/.342/.414/.756
Hickey (AAA, SP19) .215/.318/.346/.664
Yorke (AA, SP11) .253/.343/.383/.726
Castro (A+, SP14) .207/.343/.319/.662
Nobody seems to trust Kavadas or Lugo’s numbers for some reason. I know 40 man roster stuff but I’d rather see Kavadas at 1B than Smith/Cooper right now. Jordan seems too intriguing but I think Yorke needs a new team. I know he’s still young for AA but he hasn’t shown he can take the next step that it seems Mayer has.
 

ZMart100

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2008
3,234
It's a lot of bat first guys who don't look like they have a bat that is an asset at the ML level yet. So what do they add to a MLB roster? If selected in Rule 5, I think they get returned. I would be more worried if they carried value as defensive or base running replacements.
 

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
6,844
The back of your computer
Nobody seems to trust Kavadas or Lugo’s numbers for some reason. I know 40 man roster stuff but I’d rather see Kavadas at 1B than Smith/Cooper right now. Jordan seems too intriguing but I think Yorke needs a new team. I know he’s still young for AA but he hasn’t shown he can take the next step that it seems Mayer has.
With Kavadas, his swing-and-miss, especially against premium velocity, has always been the hurdle. It appears that he has fixed some of the holes in his swing, as his K-rate has slipped below 30% and he now appears to cover the top of the zone. Keep in mind, however, that Kavadas has almost no defensive value and both he and Casas hit left-handed, so it's hard to see more than a short-term role for Niko.

With Lugo, he played his way out of the infield, and there's a major question whether his bat will play in the outfield. He probably needs a promotion to Worcester after another 50-100 PAs (assuming he continues to hit) to see if these apparent gains will hold at AAA. His ceiling is probably as a utility bench bat but I saw him the other day in Somerset and the swing looked very good.

Yorke and Hickey are probably trade candidates, as the Red Sox prioritize certain prospects under the new administration. Paulino is likely to be protected IMO.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,606
With Kavadas, his swing-and-miss, especially against premium velocity, has always been the hurdle. It appears that he has fixed some of the holes in his swing, as his K-rate has slipped below 30% and he now appears to cover the top of the zone. Keep in mind, however, that Kavadas has almost no defensive value and both he and Casas hit left-handed, so it's hard to see more than a short-term role for Niko.

With Lugo, he played his way out of the infield, and there's a major question whether his bat will play in the outfield. He probably needs a promotion to Worcester after another 50-100 PAs (assuming he continues to hit) to see if these apparent gains will hold at AAA. His ceiling is probably as a utility bench bat but I saw him the other day in Somerset and the swing looked very good.

Yorke and Hickey are probably trade candidates, as the Red Sox prioritize certain prospects under the new administration. Paulino is likely to be protected IMO.
I’d still promote Kavadas and hope he can go on a Dalbec like month until Casas is healthy then he could be decent trade bait (like Bobby should have been after ‘21). I doubt the difference between Nick’s value now and if he struggled in a promotion to be different…. But a good 150AB’s could only add value.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2007
1,122
Pittsboro NC
Player (level, soxprospect ranking) OPS stats

Kavadas (AAA, SP57) .307/.463/.663/1.126
Lugo (AA, SP50) .296/.395/.643/1.038
Paulino (AA, SP15) .255/.347/.443/.791
Jordan (AA, inj, SP17) .283/.342/.414/.756
Hickey (AAA, SP19) .215/.318/.346/.664
Yorke (AA, SP11) .253/.343/.383/.726
Castro (A+, SP14) .207/.343/.319/.662
Re: Lugo --
His K% is down a couple ticks, from 27.6 to 25.2 (from 322 PAs in AA last year). His BB% is WAY up, from 5.9 to 13.9. His P/PA are up from 3.87 to 4.02. His GO/AO is down from .80 to .67, and is coming via line drives, not fly balls. His GB% is down from 36.0 to 28.4; his FB% is down from 44.5 to 40.3; his LD% is up from 19.5 to 31.3. One number that looks clearly unsustainable is his HR/FB%, up to 29.6 from 5.6! But here's the thing I like best -- his Pull% is down to 40.6 from 52.2; his Oppo% is about the same -- about 25% -- while his Center% has picked up the 12 points dropped from pulling, up to 34.8 from 22.4.
So he's a guy who's having more patient at bats, using the middle of the field, and hitting line drives.
He now has a total of 437 PA in AA (322 last year, 115 this year). It's just about time to promote him to AAA and see if his new approach translates.
(Edit: To editorialize, I'd like to see more of the hitters in Boston taking this kind of approach.)
 

mwonow

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 4, 2005
7,226
That's really an interesting perspective, thanks!

It feels like Lugo (and Castro?) are starting to edge into "might have big league ABs in their future" territory - not with the same likelihood as MAT, or the high end arms, or guys like Meidroth, but somewhere on the ladder. Which is what makes this forum so much fun!
 

Apisith

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2007
3,224
Bangkok
With Perales moving up to AA, he looks like he’s on the Bello timeline. That would put a promotion to the majors by mid next year.
 

Big Papa Smurph

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 20, 2007
340
Boston
Speaking of Matthew Lugo, he (as well as Kristian Campbell) got a little write up in a Baseballamerica column about power and approach.

Lugo
Lugo is one of the more surprising breakouts of 2024. All but forgotten entering the season, Lugo is having the best run of his professional career with Portland over the first seven weeks. Lugo is hitting .296/.392/.639 with nine home runs. But it’s the dramatic improvement in his plate skills that’s truly impressive.
83036
Lugo hasn’t just improved his plate skills across the board but his underlying power and quality of contact metrics have as well. While Lugo still has some swing and miss tendencies with breaking balls he’s done damage against them in 2024 with a .384 wOBA against breaking balls of all types with four home runs to date. Lugo is repeating Double-A but he just turned 23 earlier this month and looks to be on track to recover his prospect status.

Campbell
Campbell has been among the biggest breakouts so far this season. He’s currently hitting .279/.389/.523 with six home runs over his first 30 games. A contact-driven hitter at Georgia Tech, Campbell added bat speed over the offseason and has reinvented himself as a hitter. While Campbell swings and misses, particularly in-zone (26% in-zone whiff), his exit velocity data is up by a significant margin.

His 90th percentile exit velocity of 106.3 mph is up a full 3 mph from his 2023 college 90th percentile EV. While the added swing and miss is certainly a red flag to watch as Campbell moves up the minor league ladder, he’s still showcasing well above-average swing decisions. The quality of contact improvement is Campbell’s selling point. His xWOBAcon (expected wOBA on contact) is the fourth highest in this list and is eight highest among hitters in Double-A or below with a minimum of 50 batted ball events.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,606
Speaking of Matthew Lugo, he (as well as Kristian Campbell) got a little write up in a Baseballamerica column about power and approach.

Lugo



Campbell
Lugo needs to be added to the 40-man after this season, correct? I'd like to see him move to AAA (despite the belief that AA may be more challenging, not sure if I buy that) and be plopped down at 3B as often as possible with Meidroth. He's a RHH and if the power is legit, and he can play better D there (throwing across the diamond arm strength is iffy) then Devers, it does open up a potential spot for the DH for Rafael. Would just love for a backup corner IF to give Casas and Devers a rotating DH spot for rest, defense, etc... I don't see him ever playing any 1B though.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,307
Lugo needs to be added to the 40-man after this season, correct? I'd like to see him move to AAA (despite the belief that AA may be more challenging, not sure if I buy that) and be plopped down at 3B as often as possible with Meidroth. He's a RHH and if the power is legit, and he can play better D there (throwing across the diamond arm strength is iffy) then Devers, it does open up a potential spot for the DH for Rafael. Would just love for a backup corner IF to give Casas and Devers a rotating DH spot for rest, defense, etc... I don't see him ever playing any 1B though.
Lugo has played all 30 of his games in the field this season in LF. Even since Blaze's injury opened up more space in the IF. He's never going to replace Devers.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2007
1,122
Pittsboro NC
More on Matthew Lugo from David Laurila in FanGraphs:

{Along with playing stellar defense at a new position, Matthew Lugo is slashing .306/.404/.653 with 10 home runs and an Eastern League-best 191 wRC+.

Markedly-improved plate discipline has played a big role in his breakout. Last year, Lugo logged a 5.9% walk rate and a 27.6% strikeout rate. This year those numbers are 13.4% and 22.5%.

The key to his newfound ability to dominate the strike zone?

“Timing,” explained Lugo, who takes his cuts from the right side. “Last year, I had a lot of movement with my hands, which made me inconsistent being on time with the pitcher. My hands were very low, and then when I got to the launch position they were very high; there was a lot of distance for my hands to go through. This year, I’m closer to my launch position before I swing. I also had a [bat] wiggle and this year I just get to my spot with no wiggle. I’m getting into my spot early and have more time to see the pitch, so I’m making better swing decisions.”

...

Positional versatility will not only help Lugo reach the big leagues, it befits his overall skillset. While not elite in any one area, he does most things well.

“I’ve always had a little bit of everything.” concurred Lugo, who is comes off as equal parts humble and confident. “I’m not a guy that has the most power, but I do have power. And I’m not the fastest guy, but I can steal some bases (he has nine this year in 10 attempts). I also feel that I’m an intelligent player who knows how to make adjustments; I’m very conscious of what I need to work on.”}

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-matthew-lugo-has-been-bostons-top-performing-prospect/