Napoli: 'I Don't Feel Too Comfortable'
- Thread starter ponchsox
- Start date
While it looks like he's done, I don't want to give up on him just yet. I don't understand what happened between spring training and the beginning of the regular season.
I don't think it's time to give up on him quite yet. He's a streaky hitter who's had some terrible patches before.
In 2010, he was 184/298/265 after 18 games, then went 303/367/663 over the next 26, then was 225/299/435 the rest of the way (98 more games).
In 2012, he was an All Star, partly after a blistering first 14 games, where he was 286/368/673, but then he went 198/291/293 over the next 26, then 12 games of 1.287 OPS, then 24 games of 498 OPS. A truly terrible month.
Last year he finished the season before getting hurt with a 170/325/319.
Right now he's at 191/301/348 over 25 games if you pull out his 0-16 start. So pretty comparable to those stretches in 2012 and the end of last season (which isn't overly encouraging, I understand).
They have to give him another 20 games or so to see if he can get one on of his tears.
In 2010, he was 184/298/265 after 18 games, then went 303/367/663 over the next 26, then was 225/299/435 the rest of the way (98 more games).
In 2012, he was an All Star, partly after a blistering first 14 games, where he was 286/368/673, but then he went 198/291/293 over the next 26, then 12 games of 1.287 OPS, then 24 games of 498 OPS. A truly terrible month.
Last year he finished the season before getting hurt with a 170/325/319.
Right now he's at 191/301/348 over 25 games if you pull out his 0-16 start. So pretty comparable to those stretches in 2012 and the end of last season (which isn't overly encouraging, I understand).
They have to give him another 20 games or so to see if he can get one on of his tears.
I think this would be more of a live question if there were any reasonable alternative. Shaw is getting owned by AAA pitching at the moment worse than Nap is by MLB pitching. Likewise, Nava isn't even hitting as well as Nap so far. At least we know Nap is defensively solid, and he could get hot at any moment. Not much to do right now but keep throwing him out there and cross your fingers.
I think the very definition of "too early to make that kind of call" is the point in the season where 2 or 3 good games can raise his batting average by 30 or 40 points.
I think we'll see Holt as a regular 1Bman before we see Ortiz out there in anything but an NL park or an extreme in-game emergency that takes Nap, Nava and Holt all out of the stadium.
ponchsox said:
Unlikely on the bolded. Maybe more Holt at 1B if he's hitting. Or Nava. But they're not playing Ortiz defensively any more than they have to (in NL parks).
Savin Hillbilly said:
I think this is compounded by the lineup construction being pretty inflexible right now. Working from the bottom, the 9 spot is going to the catchers. 8 seems to be where Bogaerts is sitting for the moment - and since he's juuust treading water and does not react well to being moved around, it's probably best to keep him there. The 6/7 spot seems to be the home of RF and 1B right now.
From the top, the team seems committed to letting Betts figure out the 1 spot. 2 belongs to Pedroia. Handedness aside, 3/4/5 will feature Hanley and Sandoval/(Brock?), plus the hotter of Nap/Ortiz. Since Ortiz is a franchise fixture, as long as they both aren't producing, the spot is Ortiz's to lose. Which bumps Nap to 6/7.
There's no better option, and nowhere else to put Nap in the lineup during his slump.
All players have slumps like Napoli is having, even if they aren't only a few months removed from facial reconstruction surgery. I wouldn't even think about getting too worried until the all-star break. Ortiz had no home runs through Memorial Day a few years ago, right?
Ortiz at first isn't a problem defensively, it's an issue of health. He's an OK 1b, but he's 39, big, and has had knee problems in the past.
IMO, the single biggest improvement they can do is trying to transition Hanley over to 1st due to the lack of organizational depth and absolute nothingness from Napoli/Nava.
Having their immobile DH (both on the bases, and permanently etched 3 hitter) with a wRC+ of 82 and another aging hitter at a power position doing nothing is killer. Papi isn't going to get benched, even vs. lefties yet, so the alternative is improving elsewhere.
Having their immobile DH (both on the bases, and permanently etched 3 hitter) with a wRC+ of 82 and another aging hitter at a power position doing nothing is killer. Papi isn't going to get benched, even vs. lefties yet, so the alternative is improving elsewhere.
MyDaughterLovesTomGordon said:
Yes, another 20 or so games, though maybe a few extra Holt/Nava starts in the mix.
As I mentioned or alluded to in the "Offense" thread, Napoli is slashing .214 / .389 / .429 against lefties, and this .818 OPS would be something like 13th in the majors for 1B so he's obviously not "finished." (Note, Rizzo has a 1.067 OPS - why can't we get guys like him. 
)
Because the RS are hitting lefties so poorly, they are going to see a lot of them and I expect Napoli to be one of the main beneficiaries.
The RS should get more ABs for Nava at 1B against righties though. That seems like a no-brainer.
)Because the RS are hitting lefties so poorly, they are going to see a lot of them and I expect Napoli to be one of the main beneficiaries.
The RS should get more ABs for Nava at 1B against righties though. That seems like a no-brainer.
ponchsox said:
For the same reason my 83-year old mother doesn't travel by plane unless she's staying at the destination for at least 4-5 days -- it takes her two days to recover from the trip.
I think that in the past couple of seasons, Ortiz had alluded to those games in the field really affecting his legs for a day or two. You can argue that he's fat, its laughable, he should be ashamed, what about coal-miners, whatever. But that's the way it is.
wade boggs chicken dinner said:
For the same reason we can't get guys like Adrian Gonzalez (1.145 OPS).
If Nap's BABIP was .250, his line would be 223/336/362 (assuming all the extra hits were singles), and we would dismiss it simply as an early-season slump from a guy who had major offseason surgery.
Nap will be 34 this fall, so it's possible he's cooked, but giving him every opportunity to snap out of it is clearly the right move at the moment, particularly in light of the dearth of alternatives.
Nap will be 34 this fall, so it's possible he's cooked, but giving him every opportunity to snap out of it is clearly the right move at the moment, particularly in light of the dearth of alternatives.
Further, Ortiz wasn't even an option to play first ten years ago because of his bad wheels. Considering him this year for playing first except in a few games at NL parks is way out of the question.MakMan44 said:
I would add Cecchini to this group, who I thinks projects better at 1st than 3rd. Of course he's been terrible the last year but before that, was an outstanding middle of the order stick. He's still young enough to rebound although would also have to add more of his natural power to his gameSavin Hillbilly said:
I forgot how bad Napoli was down the stretch last year too.
After July 24, 2014, here are his numbers
BA .171
OBP .286
SLG .310
ABs 245
DB 8
HR 8
BB 42
Ks. 74
Clearly if this keeps up something has to be done. If he is still scuffling like this in mid June, at the latest, you would think they would have to replace him at least v RHPers.
Of course, Nava has managed to be even worse than Napoli in his 50ABs, Shaw has a 567 OPS in Paw and Allen Craig, well he is still Allen Craig.
Despite the multiple options on the 40 man, the 1b are at 157/267/243 so far this year (which remarkably is better than the slash line the RFers have managed (144/250/227)). Fixing the offense more or less means fixing 1b and RF.
I appreciate that moving Hanley to 1B mid season is problematic, but in the absence of a revival soon from Napoli what are the options? You could go to a straight Nava/Napoli platoon for a month or two and hope Nava wakes up. If Craig rakes at PAW he easily could get another chance to start FT. Beyond that, I suppose Marrero or Bradley might fetch a 1b who could come within shouting distance of league average.
After July 24, 2014, here are his numbers
BA .171
OBP .286
SLG .310
ABs 245
DB 8
HR 8
BB 42
Ks. 74
Clearly if this keeps up something has to be done. If he is still scuffling like this in mid June, at the latest, you would think they would have to replace him at least v RHPers.
Of course, Nava has managed to be even worse than Napoli in his 50ABs, Shaw has a 567 OPS in Paw and Allen Craig, well he is still Allen Craig.
Despite the multiple options on the 40 man, the 1b are at 157/267/243 so far this year (which remarkably is better than the slash line the RFers have managed (144/250/227)). Fixing the offense more or less means fixing 1b and RF.
I appreciate that moving Hanley to 1B mid season is problematic, but in the absence of a revival soon from Napoli what are the options? You could go to a straight Nava/Napoli platoon for a month or two and hope Nava wakes up. If Craig rakes at PAW he easily could get another chance to start FT. Beyond that, I suppose Marrero or Bradley might fetch a 1b who could come within shouting distance of league average.
Ouch.
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 2m2 minutes ago
Dating back to last year, Mike Napoli's last 300 PA have produced 8 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, .174/.293/.308.
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats 2m2 minutes ago
Dating back to last year, Mike Napoli's last 300 PA have produced 8 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, .174/.293/.308.
If it weren't for his ridiculously productive spring training this year (I know, much against AAA guys, etc), I'd be on the get-him-out-of-town train. But he did rake for that month, so I think he deserves a few more weeks before alternatives are considered. And, of course, we have no in-house candidates to replace him. Only out house candidates.
Yup. Ten years ago Ortiz was telling the media he wanted to play first and Theo/Tito said no, not because of his skills, but because of injury risk.Al Zarilla said:
How's Ryan Howard doing these days?
edit- ugh.. I just said that for a chuckle and then checked it out. He'd actually be an upgrade and would likely help out the weakness from the left side too. I'm not advocating! Just realizing how terrible Nap has been! Of course Ryan's awful defense would still likely make Nap an overall better player. Gross.
edit- ugh.. I just said that for a chuckle and then checked it out. He'd actually be an upgrade and would likely help out the weakness from the left side too. I'm not advocating! Just realizing how terrible Nap has been! Of course Ryan's awful defense would still likely make Nap an overall better player. Gross.
Serious question: How does this happen to a (youngish, non-injured) guy? Are there any articles that try to explain a loss of ability to see/hit the ball?
geoduck no quahog said:
Didn't he have surgery on his face in the off-season? I imagine his second half swoon last year could be attributable to his apnea issues (fatigue from lack of good sleep) which are presumably solved thanks to the surgery. Perhaps there was an unfortunate side effect of the operation, and it is affecting his vision or something.
My guess is that the surgery took him out of his normal off-season exercise routine and he entered 2015 weaker and less nimble - just a guess.
Googling isn't really helping much, but I think the best information is going to come out of PED studies. Since PED's had a perceived beneficial impact on ALL users (not just the stars), let's start looking at what they did:
1. Increased muscle mass, and therefore strength
2. Increased workout time and therefore stamina
3. Provided an energy boost (particularly amphetamines) which may have improved concentration and certainly increased endurance
4 ??
Meaning by extension that strength, stamina, concentration and endurance would be traits that a slumping hitter might be lacking - or experiencing a sudden deterioration...which still doesn't explain missing pitches by 2 feet.
Maybe he's not getting laid enough.
Googling isn't really helping much, but I think the best information is going to come out of PED studies. Since PED's had a perceived beneficial impact on ALL users (not just the stars), let's start looking at what they did:
1. Increased muscle mass, and therefore strength
2. Increased workout time and therefore stamina
3. Provided an energy boost (particularly amphetamines) which may have improved concentration and certainly increased endurance
4 ??
Meaning by extension that strength, stamina, concentration and endurance would be traits that a slumping hitter might be lacking - or experiencing a sudden deterioration...which still doesn't explain missing pitches by 2 feet.
Maybe he's not getting laid enough.
not a first baseman, and moving hanley just creates a hole in his absence in LF. given his failure to smoothly transition down the defensive spectrum (thus far), there's little reason hanley should be expected to play a competent first base.snowmanny said:
O Captain! My Captain! said:
I dunno, I'm fairly skeptical of moving him mid-season, but I wouldn't presume his poor transition to LF is indicative of what he'll do at 1B. He's played plenty of corner infield and is at least not an embarrassment at it. A lot of the problem in LF seems related to his diminished mobility due to adding mass, which would be less of an issue at 1B.
Moving him to 1B only creates a "hole" if the person coming into LF is worse than Napoli. (ok, you actually have to project and factor in the change to Hanley's value in moving him to 1B, but you get the point.) If Victorino's corpse continues to look passable and stay glued together, and you have the option of a Castillo - Betts - Vic OF with Hanley at 1B, it's not crazy to think that gives you a better chance than trotting Napoli out there.
Now, there are a bunch of "ifs" in that proposition, which is why I would lean towards making the change during the offseason, depending on available corner OF talent and what happens to Craig in AAA, but I think Hanley is much more likely to have a future at 1B than LF, especially if Papi is able to hang in there and play one more year.
Rasputin said:
As nothumb essentially stated above, i believe it's reasonable to expect an easier transition to 1st for Hanley then we are currently seeing LF. But yeah, having to go into next winter with LF as a targeted area of need is probably the least likely scenario worth losing any sleep over imo.
(plus you always have the potential of the high end option falling into your lap, Justin Upton. I mean hey, he's a year younger then Pablo and has 3 years on Hanley. Which is right in Ben's targeted wheelhouse of late if the years don't end up getting too crazy....)
Napoli is an exceptional first baseman whose contribution to defense involves alertness as well as excellent scoops. I like the idea of a Nava-Napoli platoon since I think Dan will also play well defensively. This gives both of them the best chance to come around offensively with the hope that eventually Nap will return to full-time status. When Rusney comes up JBJ goes down and Vic becomes a part-time player. Given the low-wattage offense Hanley has to be in there almost every day. Against LH pitchers our infield should have Holt on 3rd and Nap on 1st, and the OF should be Hanley-Rusney-Vic with Betts as backup. Against righties, Panda should be on 3rd, Nava on first with Hanley, Betts and Rusney as the outfield. Thoughts about moving Hanley to first should definitely be deferred to the off-season.O Captain! My Captain! said:
Spring training argues that he has the ability to hit (at least some) ML pitching, and Napoli has always been streaky. Like others have said, the surgery seems to be the most likely suspect. Basically he got a third of his skull sawed off and rewired. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hl4onlHzuwA So there could be complications, drugs, new sleep patterns, or the body just rerouting resources to heal its cut up skull. (I'm sure he wasn't chowing down on steaks afterward.) He also has the time-bomb hip issue. Any of these things might cause enough of a problem or disruption of routine to trigger his "native" streakiness.geoduck no quahog said:
My point is it's not like the guy's necessarily in the peak of his physical form and just got the hitting yips. However, Nap sort of peaked at 31 in 2013. New position, hip treatments, and we got excellent though streaky production. Since then he's been slowly accelerating downhill.
He may just be done though - although he might have the "raw" physical ability. FWIW, Youkilis had a peak at age 31 and started trending strongly downward. He was dinged up, but I'm sure there were strong stretches in his age 32-35 years where he'd be a couple of percentage points (health wise) from his age 31 body. One declines, but not *that* much (with the caveat that everyone's body/usage is different).
Josh Hamilton has a similiar post 31 strong downward trend. As a tangent, I wonder if there are some guys who just have a limited amount of ABs in them. Four strong seasons and they start breaking down no matter that they peaked at age 29 or 31? That sort of thing.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
By OPS+, Napoli gave us his 3rd and 4th best seasons of his career in 2013 and 2014, at 128 and 123 respectively. We need to adjust our expectations of what a "good" hitting performance is to the present, offense-dampened era. Even with that, he's having a tough year, but it wouldn't be outrageous for him to bounce back to be a league-average 1B this year. Absent a further deterioration of his hip or RR's point about his mandible surgery, a long-term decline or cliff-drop of his hitting ability due to age-related reasons seems to be unlikely.
Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
Another player treated for sleep apnea problems. Craig had a different operation, though.
Thank you. I was trying to figure out if the implication was that he used to be good but suddenly became very bad. But he was pretty consistently bad.Harry Hooper said:
Wow, that surgery looks horrendous. I don't understand how he came back so soon from it. His bones must still be healing (says this non-doctor).
Can't say for sure if Napoli is finished but I'm finished with him. He should not be batting in an important spot in the lineup anymore.