NBA Top Shot

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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It's the same requirement as the last major drop, other than the needing to have spent $99 in the marketplace which really isn't much at all.
Point is I had already lost interest. And while $99 isn't much at all, that small escalation did end up being the difference maker for my girlfriend who also missed out.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
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I needed at least 400 people to drop out to sneak in and that worked out. Bought with just a few hundred remaining.
Congrats. I was in the same spot, except I needed 37,000 people to drop out. So close. ;)

Hope you got some good pulls -- the Discord is full of people whining about the moments they got.
 

Batman Likes The Sox

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Dec 28, 2003
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My draw was pretty bad too - no notable players and all high numbers. Josh Hart as my Metallic Gold, which is one of the lowest priced moments in the set.

If I sold it all now I'd get a little above $200, so $100 profit is still pretty good for a bad draw. I'll keep everything though, as I suspect having a Metallic Gold or a lot of moments will continue to be the gateway to another pack in the future.
 

kevmyster

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Dec 20, 2006
384
I only had 10 moments so didn't qualify. My girlfriend has 8. I was going to consolidate them all via gift function but never got around to it. Oh well.
Put in measures to combat multi-accounting (something I haven't seen much evidence of) and just let the virtual queue democratize the pack acquisition process. I don't care to be judged on whether I deserve the opportunity.
398703BB-6C58-483A-AFB5-421C412D1AF6.jpeg
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
7,785
I'm not following.

Edit: I think you're trying to point out some sort of inconsistency but fail to realize there was over a week and 2 pack drops between those posts. I always love seeing the spidey meme though.
Pretty sure he's saying that you're complaining about that didn't put more effort into combatting multi-accounting while at the same time basically admitting to multi-accounting
 
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djbayko

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Pretty sure he's saying that you're complaining about that didn't put more effort into combatting multi-accounting while at the same time basically admitting to multi-accounting
Gotcha. I’m talk about people like Vegas Dave who have who has like 100 accounts gifting him moments. My girlfriend is fine with bringing money into the household on her behalf.

But fair enough.
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
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Gotcha. I’m talk about people like Vegas Dave who have who has like 100 accounts gifting him moments. My girlfriend is fine with bringing money into the household on her behalf.

But fair enough.
So multi-accounting is fine, except when it's not fine. Maybe he just has a really big family.
 

djbayko

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So multi-accounting is fine, except when it's not fine. Maybe he just has a really big family.
I think it’s quite different actually. But we can disagree there. Notice my ire was directed at TopShots. They aren’t doing anything to prevent it. Probably because they perceive it helps them (esp when weighed against the costs of preventing it). LiveNation only pretends to be anti-scalping for the similar reasons - they carry very little inventory because of it.
 
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scottyno

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I think it’s quite different actually. But we can disagree there. Notice my ire was directed at TopShots. They aren’t doing anything to prevent it. Probably because they perceive it helps them (esp when weighed against the costs of preventing it). LiveNation only pretends to be anti-scalping for the similar reasons - they carry very little inventory because of it.
they're the exact same things, just different degrees of them
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Nov 19, 2008
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I am absolutely awful at getting in line for these drops. Anyone get anything good over the past two stress test drops?
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
5,313
I am absolutely awful at getting in line for these drops. Anyone get anything good over the past two stress test drops?
I didn't get this one - I was 75000th in line for a 50k drop. I got a low-serial Moses Brown that I was able to sell for $69 a couple of drops ago. And I got the Payton Pritchard game-winning lay-in moment last drop, so I was happy with that.

Packs are still consistently +ev if you get them, but sometimes only by a few dollars once you factor in TS's cut on sales.

I'd recommend keeping an eye out for drops on Mondays and Thursdays. They've said in office hours that they'd like to eventually reach a regular cadence of Mon-Thurs drops.
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
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I got a bad number 12k moses brown in the drop today and a couple good number 35k commons including a carmelo, so nothing special but it's something like 3x value total from what I paid which isn't terrible.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Nov 19, 2008
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There's a pre-registration process for their next pack drop in a few days. Sign up is available now on the site.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Nov 19, 2008
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Waiting room is open for today's 2pm drop.

Edit- Aaand I waited all that time for nothin special.
 
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Batman Likes The Sox

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Dec 28, 2003
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Got a good number this time, about 30,000 in line.

Anyone trying to get low-cost moments together for Trade Ticket purposes? I've bought a handful of $5 and $6 moments.
 

hikeeba

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Dec 8, 2005
825
Started 1140 in line - just got a pack:

Terrence Ross Dunk #3239
R.J. Hampton Dunk #2659
Collin Sexton Steal #289 (Hustle and Show)
Jordan Clarkson Layup #6583
Saddiq Bey Dunk #6176

Looks like some trade tickets in the future....
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
5,313
Started 1140 in line - just got a pack:

Terrence Ross Dunk #3239
R.J. Hampton Dunk #2659
Collin Sexton Steal #289 (Hustle and Show)
Jordan Clarkson Layup #6583
Saddiq Bey Dunk #6176

Looks like some trade tickets in the future....
I dunno -- that's a pretty solid pack. That TRoss is in the current Cool Cats challenge, so if you sell that in the next day, it's worth ~$28. The Saddiq Bey is a $30 moment because it's got three badges. And the Sexton will probably be one of the more valuable H&S moments.


Got a good number this time, about 30,000 in line.

Anyone trying to get low-cost moments together for Trade Ticket purposes? I've bought a handful of $5 and $6 moments.
2 things:
(1) Without knowing how many tickets will be needed to buy a pack, I'm disinclined to buy on spec.
(2) I think commons will drop again in value. I'll bet there will be plenty of $3-4 commons available in the off-season as people get tired of waiting for news about tickets and want to get liquid.
 

Bongorific

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Jul 16, 2005
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Balboa Towers

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
41,679
Meh:
  • Hardaway dunk #15611
  • Chiozza assist #18749
  • Marcus Smart steal #10703 (hustle and show)
  • RJ Barrett dunk #28114 (rookie)
  • Okongwu dunk #31419 (rookie)
Smart one is nice—it was the steal against Portland where he whiffed on a diving steal attempt in the backcourt and came all the way back on full court sprint to make a steal on the other end.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
5,313
Today tells me that there is no way TopShot is going to do any significant marketing during the playoffs. Their infrastructure can't handle heavy trading days with the current number of users. They had to go into maintenance mode for an hour today, even with the marketplace closed during the many hours of the pack drop. Just a 10% increase in the number of users anytime soon would completely swamp the site.

I suspect they're going to be pretty quiet PR-wise until the start of next season.
 

hikeeba

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Dec 8, 2005
825
I dunno -- that's a pretty solid pack. That TRoss is in the current Cool Cats challenge, so if you sell that in the next day, it's worth ~$28. The Saddiq Bey is a $30 moment because it's got three badges. And the Sexton will probably be one of the more valuable H&S moments.
Thanks! Put it up for $32 (when the low was $24), and it sold overnight, but now the low is $32. Is this something where the price will go up as the deadline for the challenge gets closer?

Is there any benefit (requirement to get rare packs, getting an extra card etc) from collecting an entire set (like the 8 Hustle and Show cards)?
 
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scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
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Thanks! Put it up for $32 (when the low was $24), and it sold overnight, but now the low is $32. Is this something where the price will go up as the deadline for the challenge gets closer?

Is there any benefit (requirement to get rare packs, getting an extra card etc) from collecting an entire set (like the 8 Hustle and Show cards)?
If you complete a challenge you get a unique moment that is never available in packs, but then you lose out on the equity that the challenge moments have while the challenge is in progress, so it may or may not be worth it. As to whether prices will go up or down, well that's the million dollar question, they may go up at some point once the challenge gets closer to the end, or they may go down as people that have the moments but don't want to actually do the challenge lower their sell prices so they don't get stuck with the moment at the end.
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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If you complete a challenge you get a unique moment that is never available in packs, but then you lose out on the equity that the challenge moments have while the challenge is in progress, so it may or may not be worth it. As to whether prices will go up or down, well that's the million dollar question, they may go up at some point once the challenge gets closer to the end, or they may go down as people that have the moments but don't want to actually do the challenge lower their sell prices so they don't get stuck with the moment at the end.
In the few cases I’ve watched, the prices usually go down as the deadline nears.
But prices have been steadily going down overall, and I didn’t do a statistical comparison to see if the challenge moments were decreasing at a different rate than the overall market. So it could be something…or nothing.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
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There is a pre-reg for a pack drop on the site right now -- actual drop is on Friday. It also sounds like there might be another pack drop this week.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
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Thanks! Put it up for $32 (when the low was $24), and it sold overnight, but now the low is $32. Is this something where the price will go up as the deadline for the challenge gets closer?

Is there any benefit (requirement to get rare packs, getting an extra card etc) from collecting an entire set (like the 8 Hustle and Show cards)?
As stated above, if you complete the challenge, you get a unique moment. However, the general rule is that the value of the moment you get for completing the challenge is not enough to compensate you for the cost of the moments you had to buy on the MP in order to complete the challenge, as those moments usually drop precipitously in value as soon as the challenge ends.

Another consideration is that it's possible that completing a challenge will be considered a prerequisite for certain pack drops in the future, but that hasn't happened yet.

The general advice on the Top Shot Discord is to wait to complete challenges until the last day, because the prices will drop right before the challenge ends. So as a seller, I don't think waiting until the last day is advisable.

Also, more generally -- my account has dropped by about 10% over the past 2 days, so this is definitely a low point for TS. Fingers crossed that the playoffs get prices back up.
 

djbayko

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I wouldn't expect a big playoff bump, if any at all. I don't think that's going to drive much more demand.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
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I wouldn't expect a big playoff bump, if any at all. I don't think that's going to drive much more demand.
That's fair. I have a hard time determining what spurs the market. Hopefully the $20 Showcase Challenge payment will help.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
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There's another pre-registration drop available. You have until May 12 to pre-register for a drop next Friday.

It seems like pre-registration drops may happen weekly for a bit -- maybe through the playoffs?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
41,679
In case anyone reserved a pack for today's drop, looks like it has been pushed back an hour to 3 EST
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
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If the otherwise nondescript Kevon Looney TS debut dunk I pulled is #6000/12000, how much arbitrary value is added by being #6000 instead of #6497? Was scouring recent sales to try to find some comps but it’s a lot of data to plow through.

Edit: Just to be clear I know we are talking a matter of a few dollars. I’m happy to take small gains that may eventually add up to some beer money.
 

djbayko

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If the otherwise nondescript Kevon Looney TS debut dunk I pulled is #6000/12000, how much arbitrary value is added by being #6000 instead of #6497? Was scouring recent sales to try to find some comps but it’s a lot of data to plow through.

Edit: Just to be clear I know we are talking a matter of a few dollars. I’m happy to take small gains that may eventually add up to some beer money.
I have a hard time believing special serial numbers will have much future value for anything other than star players - moments which have value anyways. Do you care much about owning a Kevin Looney moment just because it's numbered #6000?

With that being said, I did a very cursory search until I ran into a comp. Today, a Kevin Love Series 2 #30,000 out of 35,000 sold for $25, whereas is is typically selling for about $4. If you aren't already, you can probably find other comps a lot easier using the following link. You can pick any random moment and then sort by past sale price, descending.

https://evaluate.market/editions
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
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I have a hard time believing special serial numbers will have much future value for anything other than star players - moments which have value anyways. Do you care much about owning a Kevin Looney moment just because it's numbered #6000?

With that being said, I did a very cursory search until I ran into a comp. Today, a Kevin Love Series 2 #30,000 out of 35,000 sold for $25, whereas is is typically selling for about $4. If you aren't already, you can probably find other comps a lot easier using the following link. You can pick any random moment and then sort by past sale price, descending.

https://evaluate.market/editions
Yeah I’m just looking for how much higher I can set my sale price now. No interest in holding.
 

djbayko

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Yeah I’m just looking for how much higher I can set my sale price now. No interest in holding.
I'd use that link then to find more examples of past sales for commons having special serial numbers. It looks like you can definitely apply some multiplier to your ask price.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
5,313
There is a drop tomorrow, but you had to qualify with a certain "collector score" as of this morning. Current estimates are that this $149 pack will not be +EV unless you get lucky with which guys are in your pack. There are 76k of the rare "Throwdown" pack and then 75k "rebound" $9 packs.

The TS market in general seems to have collapsed this weekend. My impression is that very few moments didn't drop precipitously in value. Seems like this was a combination of people flipping out over the number of new moments TS in selling, the usual weekend lull, and people selling to have money to buy the $149 pack.

I've been tempted to liquidate to cut my losses, but I am hoping for a bounce-back either during the playoffs or at the start of next season.
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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There is a drop tomorrow, but you had to qualify with a certain "collector score" as of this morning. Current estimates are that this $149 pack will not be +EV unless you get lucky with which guys are in your pack. There are 76k of the rare "Throwdown" pack and then 75k "rebound" $9 packs.

The TS market in general seems to have collapsed this weekend. My impression is that very few moments didn't drop precipitously in value. Seems like this was a combination of people flipping out over the number of new moments TS in selling, the usual weekend lull, and people selling to have money to buy the $149 pack.

I've been tempted to liquidate to cut my losses, but I am hoping for a bounce-back either during the playoffs or at the start of next season.
I qualified. But yeah, looking at the list of available moments, you have a really high probability of getting an unpopular name for your 1 of 1,800 moment. I’m going to have to look into this further tomorrow.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Nov 19, 2008
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I've gotta say, I'm losing interest in this REAL fast.

I hate the requirements to qualify for packs. Does Target ask me how many cards I own before they'll sell me a box of baseball cards? Does Topps only put in certain rare moments in expensive, exclusive packs that I can't buy? No. Why? Because it's dumb. I know it's still early on in it's lifecycle, but I'm growing more and more frustrated with this.

I've also been using a few sites to find cheap moments. And it's literally impossible to score a good one because of the bots. I've probably got 100 failed purchases since I started because the bots scoop them up so fast.

I love the idea behind Top Shot, but their execution has been awful.