NFC Championship, #1 Falcons host #2 49ers
- Thread starter Morgan's Magic Snowplow
- Start date
When first looking at this matchup the sexy players on Atlanta really jump out. Luck, D. Thomas, Josh Gordon, Quinn. But as you break his team down a little bit more there are some pretty glaring holes.
Offensive Line
With Sebastian Vollmer lost for the season this team has a glaring hole at LT. Do they move Franklin over to a position he hasn't manned as a professional? That would leave them with a RT that really has never seen the field in Mike Persons. And the guy next to him isn't much better. The right side of the line would get absolutely destroyed by Wilkerson and whomever I brought off that edge, possibly Orakpo.
Running Game
Hunter is a change of pace back and can't really handle the load of carrying the ball on early downs.
The Falcons offensive gameplan would be to throw, throw, and throw some more. Luck would absolutely make some mistakes, as he'd have no time to throw. I'm not sure who I'd have covering Gordon, but I'd probably try to put Grimes on and island with Demaryius and double up Gordon with Byrd over the top.
Defensive depth, LBs, and secondary
On defense the Falcons have Quinn and Arthur Jones on the line but the rest of the squad is mediocre at best. The 49ers are very strong on the offensive line to with hold those two guys, while Eli could pick and chose who to throw to: Tony G, Amendola, or Wallace while having Helu rush up the middle of the field (with almost no LBs to stop him).
The Falcons have the homefield advantage but I think the 49ers are the more complete team.
Falcons -1
Offensive Line
With Sebastian Vollmer lost for the season this team has a glaring hole at LT. Do they move Franklin over to a position he hasn't manned as a professional? That would leave them with a RT that really has never seen the field in Mike Persons. And the guy next to him isn't much better. The right side of the line would get absolutely destroyed by Wilkerson and whomever I brought off that edge, possibly Orakpo.
Running Game
Hunter is a change of pace back and can't really handle the load of carrying the ball on early downs.
The Falcons offensive gameplan would be to throw, throw, and throw some more. Luck would absolutely make some mistakes, as he'd have no time to throw. I'm not sure who I'd have covering Gordon, but I'd probably try to put Grimes on and island with Demaryius and double up Gordon with Byrd over the top.
Defensive depth, LBs, and secondary
On defense the Falcons have Quinn and Arthur Jones on the line but the rest of the squad is mediocre at best. The 49ers are very strong on the offensive line to with hold those two guys, while Eli could pick and chose who to throw to: Tony G, Amendola, or Wallace while having Helu rush up the middle of the field (with almost no LBs to stop him).
The Falcons have the homefield advantage but I think the 49ers are the more complete team.
Falcons -1
Admittedly the Falcons welcome a powerful defensive team into the Dome this week. But while the defense is strong, let us not begin thinking that this will be the the NFL Super a bowl revisited. I don't think the 49ers are more complete, I just think their strengths are in different places.
The Falcons will be favored by 4 and will win this game.
The 49ers offense is not close to what the Seahawks brought. 2014 Eli is not Russell Wilson (heck even 2010 Eli). David Wilson is not Lynch. The offense has view few scary weapons, or even consistent ones. And the 49ers have the same problems on the right side of their offensive line. The Falcons strong albeit not spectacular defense will be able to more than contain the 49ers, and this team will be held to 17-20 points.
Offensively, yes, the team will continue to be pass first. However, that will allow us to use our RB strategically for support in the pass blocking. We will run a lot of quick hits and screens to Baldwin and DeMaryius, peppering throughout deep hits to Gordon and just enough strategically placed draws to keep the front 7 honest. Luck won't have massive amounts of time, but by the 2nd half, after 8-10 combined screens and quickies to the WR and TE, the rush will be softened just enough to keep luck on his feet throughout the 2nd half.
I like the Falcons by a score of 27 or 24 to 20.
I think this is a 6 pt game but I also think that the 49ers are good enough that the oddsmakers would need this lower to keep money flowing both ways. Saying falcons -4.
The Falcons will be favored by 4 and will win this game.
The 49ers offense is not close to what the Seahawks brought. 2014 Eli is not Russell Wilson (heck even 2010 Eli). David Wilson is not Lynch. The offense has view few scary weapons, or even consistent ones. And the 49ers have the same problems on the right side of their offensive line. The Falcons strong albeit not spectacular defense will be able to more than contain the 49ers, and this team will be held to 17-20 points.
Offensively, yes, the team will continue to be pass first. However, that will allow us to use our RB strategically for support in the pass blocking. We will run a lot of quick hits and screens to Baldwin and DeMaryius, peppering throughout deep hits to Gordon and just enough strategically placed draws to keep the front 7 honest. Luck won't have massive amounts of time, but by the 2nd half, after 8-10 combined screens and quickies to the WR and TE, the rush will be softened just enough to keep luck on his feet throughout the 2nd half.
I like the Falcons by a score of 27 or 24 to 20.
I think this is a 6 pt game but I also think that the 49ers are good enough that the oddsmakers would need this lower to keep money flowing both ways. Saying falcons -4.
bsj said:
9ers
Brown and Nwaneri are both NFL starters. Nwaneri struggles in the run but is one of the better pass blocking guards in the league. Brown admittedly struggled covering Brees' blindside but he should fare better on the right side of the line.
Falcons
Persons has 3 career NFL snaps. While Hangartner was cut in August and only brought in after the Panthers lost 5 Offensive Lineman to the IR, annd he still only saw 39 snaps.
I don't think these OLs are very comparable, but honestly Gordon scares the shit out of me.
Fair enough. I should have said "some" of the same problems. It's definitely a weakness, just saying I don't think we are talking about a strength across the field either.DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
Kyle Arrington covering Demaryius Thomas is the stuff my nightmares are made of, but I'm giving the 49ers the advantage because their defense is better and their QB has done it before. Even.
Edit: I wonder what Super Nomario is thinking with Falcons -5
Edit: I wonder what Super Nomario is thinking with Falcons -5
Well, the Falcons are the home team, so that's like 2.5 points.phragle said:
Beyond that, I would say my reasoning boils down to:
1) DoDM has made compelling points that Eli would be better on his fictional 49ers squad than he was on the real life Giants, and I buy them to some degree. But we can't entirely dismiss how poorly he played this year: 57.5% completion, 18 TD / 27 INT. The Falcons have a significant QB edge.
2) The Falcons' passing attack is just terrifying. Thomas and Gordon are two top-5 WRs. Grimes is a really good corner, but at 5'10" he's not really the physical presence you want against those kind of guys, and Arrington is obviously going to struggle. The Falcon O-line is a weakness and Luck isn't going to have a ton of time to throw, but a) what else is new, and b) how much time are these guys going to need to get open against these corners? They're screwed if they press, and they're screwed if they play off. I guess they can play zone and wait for a mistake, but I don't see Atlanta having trouble moving the ball despite their weak OL.
3) The Falcons don't have a complete D, but they have Quinn and an OK secondary. If the 49ers could run the ball they could make hay, but with Wilson on IR that's a tough argument. The linebacker corps is clearly a problem for the Falcons, and Gonzalez would probably have a nice day, but I don't see the 49ers moving the ball as easily.
So, basically, I think the Falcons have home field, and are better. Not a lot better - I share folks' concern about their OL and linebackers - but better.
Polls will stay open until 2:00 EST. Right now, with 13 votes the line is Falcons -1.5. 49ers get balls 1-27, Falcons get balls 28-59 in tonight's drawing. The first white ball will determine a winner.
Edit: Final line Falcons-1.5.
Edit: Final line Falcons-1.5.
