Nobody to protect them? They have one of the best tackles in the league and just signed Eluemunor who is probably better than anyone the Pats have at tackle (assuming Onwenu plays guard). Plus there’s always hope Neal develops at tackle or kicks inside and becomes a solid guard
NFL Draft - General Notes and Buildup
- Thread starter tims4wins
- Start date
If they’re not sold on QB3, trading down a few spots, getting premium draft picks and taking Odunze or Nabers makes more sense than Harrison IMO
The key is not to drop far enough where you can’t get one of the big 3 WR
I think you can drop, because I think OT is the more important spot than WR. However...if you don't like these QBs, you're probably getting fired in 2-3 years anyway because you have no path to a good QB.
Problem is the "few spots" part. Outside of poss/probably the Giants, no one in the Top 10 is trading up for a QB. They might trade up for Harrison, but you're looking at the 11-13 for the team who might want the QBs.
That’s fair. Probably should have said “holes in the offensive line” but went with hyperbole instead. They would have a lot of capital tied up in the position, both in draft picks and actual money used in a relatively short time period.
Whatever the case, these are the types of rumors that I would love if I’m the LAC and looking to trade out of pick 5.
See, in theory that sounds accurate. But if they all fill their true potential, youre talking about trading a Justin Jefferson for a DJ Moore and a 50/50 shot at a starting player somewhere else.
Maybe that ends up worth it, I don't know. I personally prefer the generational talent over pro-bowl talent.
Huh?
If they reach out their full potential they are all All-Pro players same with 23.
Edit-I'm not a fan of WR at 3 but the case for MHJ is that he's really advanced and you think he's a much higher likelihood of reaching his 80-100% outcomes, not that his best outcomes are the best
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One thing about the Vikings trade, I think NE takes a QB, but this trade shows the cost of trading in to the late 1st is not bad at all. I could see them pop up from 34 if they have one guy left at LT (or WR) in a tier
I could see them considering that, but when you have holes at both OT and WR the cost is also that you probably only address one.
You're probably addressing one at 68 either way. I think if given the opportunity I'd trade a future pick to move up for a LT.. Grab a WR at 68 if say Pearsall or someone is there... Then plan to swing for a top WR in the 1st next year... Basically the Bengals plan.. Get your QB then get his #1 the next year
I think this is the best approach. Get the QB at 3, try to fix one of the other holes (trading up from 34 if needed). 3rd round and later picks are unlikely to be good starters so just take the best player regardless of position
They’ll likely have a top 3-5 pick next year so use that to take whatever glaring hole is still left or trade down for a haul if someone wants to come up (might be hard in a weak QB class)
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I don’t agree about them picking top 3-5 next year. It’s really hard to be that bad back to back years. They hadn’t picked top 5 since 1994!
Wasn't there some rumors of the Vikings trying to trade up do draft Anthony Richardson last year? Maybe KOC is interested in Daniels (whether over or in addition to Maye). They're in a tough spot at 11 - they basically have to hope that one of the Top 3 teams would be willing to trade back (doubtful) or that AZ, LAC, or NYG would. All three could use an true No 1 WR, and #11 is probably too far back to risk waiting to see if one of the big three WRs fall. So realistically you have to hope that one of those teams is down enough on Nabers or Odunze (or high enough on one of the others) to make a deal. Even then, you either have to hope that Maye or Daniels falls outside the first three picks or be really really high on McCarthy.
I'd almost prefer they make a deal for Fields at this point. Maybe a 2025 5th rounder or something (not sure CHI would take that deal in-division, even with his market all but gone). Even if they still walk away with a QB from this draft, I think it's worth it to try and see if KOC can cook up something useful enough. And it hedges your bets if the QBs are all off the board by 11 - shore up the OL and take BPA at 23 (or trade back again and pick up more ammo to try again for a QB in 2025).
I'd almost prefer they make a deal for Fields at this point. Maybe a 2025 5th rounder or something (not sure CHI would take that deal in-division, even with his market all but gone). Even if they still walk away with a QB from this draft, I think it's worth it to try and see if KOC can cook up something useful enough. And it hedges your bets if the QBs are all off the board by 11 - shore up the OL and take BPA at 23 (or trade back again and pick up more ammo to try again for a QB in 2025).
Harrison Jr is one of the most impressive receiver prospects of the last 20 years. As great as the other two prospects are, his ceiling appears to be that much higher, no?
Somewhat, but not everyone shares that writer's opinion (from before most of the college season no less) , and it is what he already has that makes him such a great prospect. But even then.. Like he gets comps to Calvin Johnson, where Odunze gets Larry Fitz comps... Megatron was better than than Fitz... I think most franchises would rather have had Fitz and a top LT than Megatron.
WRs aren't QBs, having the best one has less marginal value over a top 5 or 10. And even having the best WR in the league doesnt have a huge impact on winning without QB play.
Bottom 5-7 roster, probably bottom 5-6 QB, tough division, rookie head coach…I just don’t see how more than 5 teams will be worse than them unless the QB is a day one home run
Washington and the Giants could be terrible but they play each other and play the NFC south. The Broncos could be awful. Maybe Tennessee if Levis doesn’t improve. Carolina if Bryce Young doesn’t improve. The Raiders and Chargers might be bad (though I think LAC will overachieve due to Harbaugh) but they’ll be able to beat up on Denver
The Pats offense on paper, with Brissett at the helm, is bottom 3-4 in the NFL and the defense is IMO going to regress with the loss of both Belichicks and by virtue of (likely) not playing a ton of terrible QB’s. The slate of QB’s this defense will face is going to be a lot more daunting than the 2023 D
Other than Carolina and Tennessee, the other teams in dire situations play in divisions where they’re probably going to get a few wins against similarly bad teams.
You say all these things, but if Brissett was the QB on the 2023 Pats, they probably would have won like 7 games. I will honestly be shocked if they only win 4 games again. I think 6 wins is probably the floor. It would take major injuries for them to pick top 5 again IMO.
Edit: happy to make a Jimmy Fund bet on this if you want. I'll donate $50 if they pick top 5?
Since 2022 Brady wasn't TOM BRADY (good but not playing at GOAT level at that point), if they could have won 9-10 with him, that means their overall team really wasn't too bad actually. I mean, Tampa went 8-9 in 2022 with 2022 Tom Brady at QB.
Co-sign.
Like most of us, I have gone round and round on this a million times. But ultimately, nothing else matters aside from getting the right QB. So, you shoot your shot at 3. If it doesn't work out, you do it again in 2-3 years. Lather, rinse, repeat until you do.
That being said, if they're convinced that the QB available at 3 is NOT the guy, then by all means trade down for a 1 and 2 this year and a 1 next year. The only string I would attach is that if you do this, you HAVE to be correct. If you pass on a QB at 3 and that guy goes on to be a stud, it would be truly depressing.
Yep, agreed. That would be just terrible.
Williams and Maye off the board.
"No, Daniels isn't the guy."
"Ok, we will trade down then."
Two years later: Daniels is a 2x Pro Bowler and has led his new team to the conference championship game while New England continues to be in last place.
I do wonder if guys like Penix and Nix actually could be good NFL QBs though, in which case a trade down, then to draft one of them at 34, and then loading up on WRs and OTs, actually could work. But I want the QB at #3 - as you said, shoot your shot. Nobody is going to blame you if you take the third QB off the board there and he doesn't turn out to be all-world.
This is the move. After thinking about it for awhile, I’ve come to believe that college football has demonstrated two things recently:
- it can create good pro wide receivers pretty damn consistently
- it has gotten worse at creating left tackle prospects
As the game has gotten more pass heavy because of the spread offense, it seems like wide receivers, by and large, require much less projection than they did 20 years ago and the inverse has happened at the tackle position. I also think that’s why 30+ year old wide receivers are dirt cheap on the trade market while Tyron Smith can still be in demand. One position has a steady stream of prospects and the other has a spottier track record recently.
So in a year where tackle is deep, take advantage of that and try to lock down that position for the next decade. Next year there will be wide receivers available mid first round, as there are every year now, and you can go get one if you need to.
I actually think - stupidly perhaps - that I'd still rather they go WR at #34. BUT: part of the pattern that emerged during (and since) Eliot's time in Green Bay is the ability to land productive wideouts on Day two of the draft. So, if they adopt the grading system from GB and can apply it to this WR-rich draft class, who knows? Maybe the team comes away from the 3rd/4th/5th rounds with a productive receiver or two.
Well put. The draft is consistently producing stud WRs well into the second round each year. If I had to pick 2 of the 3 positions for the Pats to address this offseason between QB, LT, and WR, it would be QB and LT, due to the dearth of good tackles. You can then keep taking shots at WR in the first 3-4 rounds until you find your stud. It's basically an inevitability at this point that if you invest in the position you'll eventually find a great WR. It's why BB's not spending draft capital on the position was so maddening.
If the Patriots can get a guy like Roman Wilson in round 3, which is not nearly impossible, or even Ricky Pearsall, those guys would be more than fine as the team begins the rebuilding process with QB at #3, LT at #34. This ain't a one-year process.
View: https://twitter.com/ZachGelb/status/1768739251334610945?t=NgXBMu8VOOFi0r3PZe_F2Q&s=19
Jeremiah island about as tied in as it gets... Thinks NE is taking a QB and WAS is the more likely to trade out, but that likely MIN can only get to 5.
Which honestly always seemed like it made the most sense... When did a team who had no QB solution trade out of a consensus QB pick
Jeremiah island about as tied in as it gets... Thinks NE is taking a QB and WAS is the more likely to trade out, but that likely MIN can only get to 5.
Which honestly always seemed like it made the most sense... When did a team who had no QB solution trade out of a consensus QB pick
This would be fine with me. It would help to get another competent vet WR two this off-season. The market for wideouts in FA or trades should also be better in 2025. I hope they take several swings at OT in the draft.
I cant imagine the market for WR is ever going to get too much better. The great ones won’t hit free agency and the ones available by trade will cost multiple 1st round picks which bad teams won’t want to give up (as they’ll be top 5-10 picks)
A quick look at the pending free agent WR’s, Waddle, Chase and Devonta Smith won’t hit the market (5th year option). Jefferson and Lamb will be traded for a massive haul or tagged or retained. Aiyuk and Higgins will likely be resolved one way or another before next offseason but maybe one of them is an option. Amari Cooper maybe? After that it’s a bunch of guys who will be similar to this year (Bateman, Godwin, Nico Collins, et al)
I think you see what's available in the 2025 draft and then decide whether ponying up for Lamb, Jefferson, etc. is worth it. I agree completely that it will be costly.
Nico Collins doesn't belong in the same convo as Bateman. He'll likely get a big contract from HOU so the point is moot but I'd put him a lot closer to Devonta Smith and Waddle. Nico is a beast and just needed to have a healthy season combined with actual NFL QB throwing the ball to prove it. 1300 yards and 8 TDs when he only started 10 games is pretty impressive.
49ers get draft penalties in 2024 and 2025 for...bad accounting?
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39761321/payroll-error-2022-costs-49ers-25-pick-dip-4th-24
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39761321/payroll-error-2022-costs-49ers-25-pick-dip-4th-24
Keep an eye on the asses:
A ‘high butt factor’ might be an NFL Draft prospect’s most prized asset - The Athletic
A ‘high butt factor’ might be an NFL Draft prospect’s most prized asset - The Athletic
I agree the odds are heavy that they don't pick top 5 again next year, but looking at the Pats given their run of excellence, because they had their QB isn't really the way to do it.
When they had that 4th pick in 1994, they had the #1 pick the year before that, so they had back to back picks in the top 4 because they didn't have their QB, and then their rookie QB needed a year to get going.
But when you look at teams that don't pick or miss on QB's, there are a bunch of them that constantly end up with high draft picks:
Jets: Starting in 2017, they picked #6, #3, #3, #11, #2, #4
Browns had back to back #1's
Detroit: Picked #3 in 2002, #2 in 2003, #1 in 2009, #2 in 2010, then went #3, #7, #2 from 2020-2022
Carolina would be picking in the top 8 for like the 5th year in a row if they didn't trade that pick
Atlanta drafts in the top 8 almost every year (and usually 8th, which is weird)
I think it sucks to think about this in the context of the Patriots, because these are the organizations we think of as bad organizations. What they really are is teams that couldn't find a quarterback during those time periods. There are bad teams every year, but missing or not taking a QB when you have the opportunity turns you from a bad team into a bad organization.
They just have to find their QB this year, or we're going to be just like one of these teams we spent 20 years laughing at.
Agree with everything you've written. I do think that if they start Brissett for 17 games, they would not pick top 5. So, I would like to believe they are not on the same level as those teams you listed. But we don't know for sure. If they're back picking top 5 again next year, that will be extremely depressing and telling, unless there is a scenario where they lose a whole bunch early and then the rookie QB comes in and plays well late but their record still stinks (kind of akin to the 93 Pats leading into the 94 draft).
Completely agreed, except in your optimism of Jacoby Brissett.
I honestly have no idea what anyone sees in him. As a starter in this league, he has an 18-30 record, and a QB rating of 85.8. Which coincidentally, is the exact same QB rating of Mac Jones' career at 85.8.
The 2016 Indy Colts had an 8-8 record with Andrew Luck (and the 30th ranked defense). The 2017 Colts had a 4-12 record with Jacoby Brissett (and the 30th ranked defense). Their offense went from 8th in the league in points under Luck to 30th with Brissett. Luck then returned in 2018, and brought them back to 10-6 and scored the 5th most points in the NFL. Then Luck was finished, Brissett starts in 2019 and they go 7-9.
He basically got fill in starts, 2-3 for Miami in 2021, (Miami was 7-6 in the other games that season) and he went 4-7 for Cleveland in 2022 (the Browns went 3-3 in their other games).
I don't think Jacoby Brissett is a good QB. In fact, I think an argument could be made that if he starts the season as the Pats QB, the Pats will have one of the 3-5 worst starting QB's in the NFL in September. So hopefully if that's the case, then your last sentence holds true and our rookie comes in and plays well, a la Bledsoe, sort of, but more like Lamar in his rookie year in Baltimore).
I have no idea what Lazar is talking about. ON what planet was Brissett #8 in QBR in 2022 (edit, never mind, I see what he's doing here, fucking joke)? He started 11 games, went 4-7, had 12tds and 6 picks and had a QBR of 62.0 (note: Evan is not using the more common metric of QB rating, of which Jacoby was an 88.9, he's apparently using ESPN's blackbox QBR instead, using that metric, Tom Brady was a 66.0 in 2020, when he had 40tds/12ints and won the Super Bowl). He also fumbled the ball 6 times.
The one and only thing you can say about Brissett is that he doesn't throw a lot of picks. Of course, he doesn't throw a lot of touchdowns, doesn't thread any needles, takes zero risk, and basically gets zero first downs when you need a play, but very few interceptions. I'll grant him that.
It's not optimism. It's that he'd win about 6 games and they'd be more likely to pick top 10 than top 5.
I know it's early, but where are these 6 wins coming from? Looking at their schedule this year and I’m planning on getting ready to learn a lot about the 1-5 prospects in 2025.
Yes, a lot will change between now and September, but I don't have to squint too hard to see another top 5 pick next year. Their schedule is brutal.
Home Games
Yes, a lot will change between now and September, but I don't have to squint too hard to see another top 5 pick next year. Their schedule is brutal.
Home Games
- Buffalo Bills
- Miami Dolphins
- New York Jets
- Houston Texans
- Indianapolis Colts
- Los Angeles Rams
- Seattle Seahawks
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Buffalo Bills
- Miami Dolphins
- New York Jets
- Arizona Cardinals
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- San Francisco 49ers
- Tennessee Titans
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Chicago Bears
Are there win total odds available anywhere? I could only find super bowl odds, which isn't the same but is directional. For SB odds the Patriots are around 30th depending on the sports book, which should take into account the expected QB situation next season. I think its pretty likely the team has a top, lets say 7 pick, next year with a decent shot at top 5.
That said a top QB is available now so take the QB and grab a top WR next season, the Bengals model.
Basically, every site I can find that has 2024-25 win totals has the Pats at 4.5 for their O/U:
https://www.legalsportsreport.com/odds/nfl/win-totals/
https://www.thelines.com/odds/nfl-win-totals/
https://www.bettingpros.com/nfl/odds/team-futures/over-under-wins/
Which ranks them tied for last with Carolina. Frankly, that's about where I have them at the moment, draft and future moves pending. Gun to my head, I'd take the over, as it's hard to only win 4 games, but it's certainly not a gimme they'll win 5 yet.
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Other than Carolina and Washington, both of whom are in the same boat as the Pats (except Carolina plays in an easier division), what teams have worse rosters than the Pats? Denver and maybe Las Vegas. The Giants maybe.
The problem is the Pats have 6 tough (assuming Rodgers is competent) divisional games and the other dregs have a max of 4. That’s a good reason to think the Pats have a better shot of being a bottom 3-5 team than the other trash teams who will beat up on each other to some degree. 1-5 in the AFC East seems like a good bet for the Pats unless they absolutely nail the rookie QB and that guy is a day 1 starter
The problem is the Pats have 6 tough (assuming Rodgers is competent) divisional games and the other dregs have a max of 4. That’s a good reason to think the Pats have a better shot of being a bottom 3-5 team than the other trash teams who will beat up on each other to some degree. 1-5 in the AFC East seems like a good bet for the Pats unless they absolutely nail the rookie QB and that guy is a day 1 starter
If the rebuild is a 2/3 year project then a top 5 pick is a good thing, makes for a painful season watching though. You are probably sitting the new QB and looking for some positives from other rookies and a step forward from Pop etc.
