NFL Free Agency Game Thread: Rumors! News! Uneducated Guesses!

E5 Yaz

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The pats were roughly average last year and the game threads were epic.It’s hard to imagine how things would be with a terrible team
Epicker!
Seriously, one good solid four-win season could do more for the team's long-term health than bringing in some names would do for entertainment value
 

Shelterdog

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Epicker!
Seriously, one good solid four-win season could do more for the team's long-term health than bringing in some names would do for entertainment value
I was a fan during the Rod Rust era and it does bring some valuable perspective when someone explains that Patricia and McDaniels were terrible coordinators. You haven’t seen terrible yet! (Well ok the offesnsive coaching staff wasn’t great last year but the offense was still far better than anything involving tommy hodson)
 

Justthetippett

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The kind of went for it at the end of the Brady regime (including using first round picks on Wynn and Michel because they had immediate needs at those positions) and won a superbowl and we’re not too far past that and we’re all complaining. Our belief that our future selves will be fine with shitty teams
Is optimistic at best
This is fair. Although I have to say these wretched Sox teams are bothering me very little given how little I have invested and how detached they are from the legacy teams/players. I'm expecting a similar who gives a shit feeling once BB leaves.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I was a fan during the Rod Rust era and it does bring some valuable perspective when someone explains that Patricia and McDaniels were terrible coordinators. You haven’t seen terrible yet! (Well ok the offesnsive coaching staff wasn’t great last year but the offense was still far better than anything involving tommy hodson)
It was really the Rust/McPherson era.


62407
 

E5 Yaz

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I was a fan during the Rod Rust era and it does bring some valuable perspective when someone explains that Patricia and McDaniels were terrible coordinators. You haven’t seen terrible yet!
I see your Rod Rust and raise you Clive Rush
 

Deathofthebambino

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Seems like he's probably not a significant upgrade over Singletary. Crazy how much recycling the Bills/Dolphins are doing with AFC East players this year.
Forget Harris and Singletary.

Two words:

James Cook. He's a stud, IMO.
 

Cellar-Door

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jeez, supposedly, at least pondered, possibly from.... so many qualifiers in that, and out of Denver.... tells me the offers have been low, I mean, why qualify both what the offer was and who it was from
 

ehaz

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FWIW, Allbright and Cabot are two of the more well sourced reporters out there, no?
 

Cellar-Door

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FWIW, Allbright and Cabot are two of the more well sourced reporters out there, no?
Cabot is very well sourced in the Browns org, and it's clear why they leaked to her, to put the pressure of "Browns are interested but have no first, DEN can get a deal done if they come off the demand for a 1st"

I'm not as clear on Allbright, but I'm sure his source is a strategic leak, I was just laughing that the leaker had him phrase it like that... yeah a 2nd and a 4th, maybe, was considered, possibly. Oh who offerred it... no idea, possibly the Patriots? But maybe not?
That screams weakness to me. It's saying "yeah see give us a 1st because a 2nd and a 4th is totally on the table" but in a way that makes it unclear if it really is, or from whom. And you don't come out and say the Patriots because you don't want them to be pissed if it was them (if it wasn't they'll be pissed for other reasons) and pull out, but if you don't float a team at all the Browns will likely say "sure, a mystery team... yeah"
 

rodderick

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That’s a very fair offer from the Pats. Good chance nobody beats it.
It's only fair if you assume Denver is actually trying to move him. As a "I know you like the player and want to keep him, but how about this?" type of offer it's not nearly enough in my mind. Which is fine, I'd trade 14 for Jeudy but I can see why a team would be reticent.
 

Shelterdog

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Cabot is very well sourced in the Browns org, and it's clear why they leaked to her, to put the pressure of "Browns are interested but have no first, DEN can get a deal done if they come off the demand for a 1st"

I'm not as clear on Allbright, but I'm sure his source is a strategic leak, I was just laughing that the leaker had him phrase it like that... yeah a 2nd and a 4th, maybe, was considered, possibly. Oh who offerred it... no idea, possibly the Patriots? But maybe not?
That screams weakness to me. It's saying "yeah see give us a 1st because a 2nd and a 4th is totally on the table" but in a way that makes it unclear if it really is, or from whom. And you don't come out and say the Patriots because you don't want them to be pissed if it was them (if it wasn't they'll be pissed for other reasons) and pull out, but if you don't float a team at all the Browns will likely say "sure, a mystery team... yeah"
I'm also dubious. Clearly a Denver leak trying to get more interest so is Denver going to be all that honest about the terms? Plus why are they trying to get Cleveland to give up 42 if NE has already offered 46 and 117?
 

Ed Hillel

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It's only fair if you assume Denver is actually trying to move him. As a "I know you like the player and want to keep him, but how about this?" type of offer it's not nearly enough in my mind. Which is fine, I'd trade 14 for Jeudy but I can see why a team would be reticent.
Dude hasn’t cracked 1,000 yards yet, I can’t really see how his value gets anywhere near 14, especially given he’s an upcoming free agent. If anything, absent a long-term deal, what the Pats offered seems like an overpay imo.
 

rodderick

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Dude hasn’t cracked 1,000 yards yet, I can’t really see how his value gets anywhere near 14, especially given he’s an upcoming free agent. If anything, absent a long-term deal, what the Pats offered seems like an overpay imo.
He's had horrible QB play and his per opportunity production was at the top of the league in 2022. Here are the players with 100+ targets to average more yards per target and yards per catch than Jerry Jeudy last year: Terry McLaurin, Jaylen Waddle and AJ Brown. It's very conceivable you'd be getting an elite player right before he blows up and you still have him under control for 2 years. But sure, he's likely not proven enough for 14. I just think the upside is tremendous.
 

Cellar-Door

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Well, he missed 2 games and had to play with Russell Wilson, so....
The same Russell Wilson who had 2 WRs go for more yards than Jeudy the year before, 2 go over 1000 yards in 2020, 1 in 2019 with a second over 900?
Listen Russ was bad last year, but I don't think he is a defacto excuse for Jeudy. Last year was his best year, he has some interesting rate numbers, but he doesn't really have that much sustained production. He's a mid-level guy who you hope is in the process of breaking out. And that's got value... but not mid-1st type value. For that price you expect a locked in beast who puts up big numbers every year.
 

DJnVa

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The same Russell Wilson who had 2 WRs go for more yards than Jeudy the year before, 2 go over 1000 yards in 2020, 1 in 2019 with a second over 900?
Listen Russ was bad last year, but I don't think he is a defacto excuse for Jeudy. Last year was his best year, he has some interesting rate numbers, but he doesn't really have that much sustained production. He's a mid-level guy who you hope is in the process of breaking out. And that's got value... but not mid-1st type value. For that price you expect a locked in beast who puts up big numbers every year.
So you're saying the Jeudy could have gone over 1000 last year if his QB was as good as he was the prior year? Okay.

Also, I was mostly crapping on Wilson, not debating Jeudy's cost. If they decide to give up #14, hopefully a pick comes back.
 

RedOctober3829

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Cabot is very well sourced in the Browns org, and it's clear why they leaked to her, to put the pressure of "Browns are interested but have no first, DEN can get a deal done if they come off the demand for a 1st"

I'm not as clear on Allbright, but I'm sure his source is a strategic leak, I was just laughing that the leaker had him phrase it like that... yeah a 2nd and a 4th, maybe, was considered, possibly. Oh who offerred it... no idea, possibly the Patriots? But maybe not?
That screams weakness to me. It's saying "yeah see give us a 1st because a 2nd and a 4th is totally on the table" but in a way that makes it unclear if it really is, or from whom. And you don't come out and say the Patriots because you don't want them to be pissed if it was them (if it wasn't they'll be pissed for other reasons) and pull out, but if you don't float a team at all the Browns will likely say "sure, a mystery team... yeah"
Allbright is as good as it gets when it comes to Denver stuff and his other NFL reports are usually on point. Point is, if he says something it should be taken seriously.
 

Cellar-Door

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So you're saying the Jeudy could have gone over 1000 last year if his QB was as good as he was the prior year? Okay.

Also, I was mostly crapping on Wilson, not debating Jeudy's cost. If they decide to give up #14, hopefully a pick comes back.
My point was more that Russ isn't a QB who limits his WRs, he was garbage the year before and his guys put up big numbers, if anything he's better for WR production than team success because he likes to throw deep and never uses the short routes (because he can't see them).
 

Ed Hillel

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He's had horrible QB play and his per opportunity production was at the top of the league in 2022. Here are the players with 100+ targets to average more yards per target and yards per catch than Jerry Jeudy last year: Terry McLaurin, Jaylen Waddle and AJ Brown. It's very conceivable you'd be getting an elite player right before he blows up and you still have him under control for 2 years. But sure, he's likely not proven enough for 14. I just think the upside is tremendous.
I was looking at one website that had Jeudy's 5th year option at 18.3 million, but that's incorrect, it's actually 13 million. The former would never have been signed, but the latter maybe there is enough leverage there to negotiate into a longer deal? Exercising it at 13 before he ever plays a snap in a Pats uniform is risky, but it's not that bad of a risk, so I guess you probably can count on that extra year. I still wouldn't do Pick 14 or near it (draft a Tackle, please), but maybe I'd go 2nd and 3rd with Jeudy and a 4th or 5th coming back.
 

rodderick

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The same Russell Wilson who had 2 WRs go for more yards than Jeudy the year before, 2 go over 1000 yards in 2020, 1 in 2019 with a second over 900?
Listen Russ was bad last year, but I don't think he is a defacto excuse for Jeudy. Last year was his best year, he has some interesting rate numbers, but he doesn't really have that much sustained production. He's a mid-level guy who you hope is in the process of breaking out. And that's got value... but not mid-1st type value. For that price you expect a locked in beast who puts up big numbers every year.
I mean, it pretty clearly was NOT the same Russell Wilson of 2019-2021.
 

Shelterdog

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Allbright is as good as it gets when it comes to Denver stuff and his other NFL reports are usually on point. Point is, if he says something it should be taken seriously.
I'm a hundred percent sure that Denver is telling him that someone, maybe the Pats, offered something like a second and a fourth. Whether that's what the actual offer is, was there another condition (Denver taking on salary, a pick coming back), even what years the picks are is uncertain.
 

Van Everyman

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He's a mid-level guy who you hope is in the process of breaking out. And that's got value... but not mid-1st type value. For that price you expect a locked in beast who puts up big numbers every year.
What kind of “value” does 14 actually get you? If the Pats drafted a wide receiver at 14 who gave us two years of 900-1000 yard production, and then got hurt for the other two, I’d still be pretty happy with that.

Could you get better value by getting a starting quarterback with upside, who falls to you at 14? Of course. But in a league where, mid-first round picks seem to flame out as much as they hit (which seems to be why Belichick often trades out of the spots), two near-guaranteed years of production at a transformative skill position for your offense seems like pretty good “value“ to me.
 

RedOctober3829

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I'm a hundred percent sure that Denver is telling him that someone, maybe the Pats, offered something like a second and a fourth. Whether that's what the actual offer is, was there another condition (Denver taking on salary, a pick coming back), even what years the picks are is uncertain.
I'm not even certain that Jeudy is really on the trade block. Denver certainly does not have to deal him with him being good and cheap. If someone wants to blow them away, they'll certainly take it.
 

Cellar-Door

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What kind of “value” does 14 actually get you? If the Pats drafted a wide receiver at 14 who gave us two years of 900-1000 yard production, and then got hurt for the other two, I’d still be pretty happy with that.

Could you get better value by getting a starting quarterback with upside, who falls to you at 14? Of course. But in a league where, mid-first round picks seem to flame out as much as they hit (which seems to be why Belichick often trades out of the spots), two near-guaranteed years of production at a transformative skill position for your offense seems like pretty good “value“ to me.
Looking at the last 5+ years in the picks (excluding the rookie because too early) around 14, you're looking at: pro-bowl caliber O-linemen (Wirfs, Lindstrom, Tunsil, Ragnow, Kelly, Slater), locked in starter level LTs (Miller), star pro-bowl defenders (Burns, Edmunds, James, Lawrence, Humphrey, Allen, Alexander, Simmons) and for WRs... 5 years of Jerry Jeudy... guys better than Jeudy (Lamb, Jefferson). Also, where we got our current starting QB.

back half of the top 20 picks hit more than people think, and many of those hits are better than Jerry Jeudy. Plus you get 4 cheap years and one market (or a bit below) year instead of only 1 cheap year.

I'm not even certain that Jeudy is really on the trade block. Denver certainly does not have to deal him with him being good and cheap. If someone wants to blow them away, they'll certainly take it.
They don't HAVE to, but even if he has a good year this year, next year trading him with only the 5th year option makes your return lower, and they have a lot of money tied up in that offense in 2024, and Jeudy is the most likely guy to get good return for.
 

DJnVa

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I'm not even certain that Jeudy is really on the trade block. Denver certainly does not have to deal him with him being good and cheap. If someone wants to blow them away, they'll certainly take it.
He may not be, but Denver needs draft picks--their cap is kinda tied up in Wilson and they need to find less expensive ways to augment their roster.
 

RedOctober3829

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He may not be, but Denver needs draft picks--their cap is kinda tied up in Wilson and they need to find less expensive ways to augment their roster.
Then Jeudy is who you want to keep. They should offload Courtland Sutton on somebody if they want to pick up some draft capital. I know Jeudy may bring the most back, but he's their top target and still cheap for 2 more years.
 

Cellar-Door

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Then Jeudy is who you want to keep. They should offload Courtland Sutton on somebody if they want to pick up some draft capital. I know Jeudy may bring the most back, but he's their top target and still cheap for 2 more years.
Really cheap for 1 more year, then market. The bigger problem is... what can you get for Sutton? A 5th? And you have to eat a big cap hit that eliminates all of the cap space you currently have? That doesn't make you better. And then you have to pick up the 5th year option, and now you're looking at a 2nd contract for Jeudy.
Plus while he was their #1, it was not by that much, and without Patrick. The year before, both Patrick and Sutton outperformed him.

So their thought process is:
Option 1: Do nothing, keep all 3 WRs, no draft capital, small amount of cap space this year.
Option 2: Trade Sutton, lose 3rd WR production, but still solid top 2, low end draft capital, no cap space at all (might have to re-work some deals)
Option 3: Trade Jeudy, lose 3rd WR production but still solid top 2, good draft capital, small cap space this year


Edit- this is something that always seems to come up... of course you'd rather trade a worse player on a not good contract for good things, but that's not how trades work, if you want good draft picks you have to trade good players with good contracts. The Broncos are going to be paying at least 2 WRs a bunch of money next year, if trading the highest upside one gets you a lot more in return you probably do it, because you can afford to take the downgrade (which might not even be a downgrade) at WR, and the other options won't bring back value.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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According to reports, the pats offered a 2nd and 4th round pick for Jeudy - and the Broncos “pondered it” - whatever that means

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1638339110656958464
It's interesting but when I see reports like this I often wonder what's the motivation here. If you're the Broncos, why would you tell a reporter this?

I can think of two reasons. (1) You are shopping him. (2) You want your fanbase to know for some reason -- for example, you're getting lowballed and you're worried the fanbase is angry that you're keeping a player at a particular cost.

Two doesn't make any sense here. Now, it's always hazardous to assume the truth of this shit in the first place, but just the existence of the report makes me think it's very likely that Jeudy is indeed on the block.
 

Justthetippett

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He may not be, but Denver needs draft picks--their cap is kinda tied up in Wilson and they need to find less expensive ways to augment their roster.
The market they wanted (1st Rd pick) looks to not exist. I don't think he gets moved unless they are confident the pick they get offers them viable options to replace his production. Guys like JSN or Flowers make sense. The Dell and Downs tier in the 2nd and 3rd rounds is a much bigger risk.
 

Cellar-Door

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The market they wanted (1st Rd pick) looks to not exist. I don't think he gets moved unless they are confident the pick they get offers them viable options to replace his production. Guys like JSN or Flowers make sense. The Dell and Downs tier in the 2nd and 3rd rounds is a much bigger risk.
given their roster using what they get from Jeudy on a WR seems like a bad idea. they have Sutton, Patrick and Hamler under contract, plus Washington and Virgil who they brought in as rookies last year. They don't need a WR to replace him as much as they need OL help, also CB and Edge are real weak spots.
 

Cellar-Door

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Jesus, I would have taken a flyer on Moore for a 5th rounder, maybe even the 117th or 135th we have in round 4.
my guess is it was about getting another 2nd to throw in the Rodgers trade. Equivalent value may be a 5th for the trade up, but it's likely to have a premium pick, in a way that getting a pick like a 4th wouldn't.
 

Ferm Sheller

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my guess is it was about getting another 2nd to throw in the Rodgers trade. Equivalent value may be a 5th for the trade up, but it's likely to have a premium pick, in a way that getting a pick like a 4th wouldn't.
And you also have to figure in that the cost to the Patriots -- a division foe -- might have been higher than that to the Browns.
 

Shelterdog

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my guess is it was about getting another 2nd to throw in the Rodgers trade. Equivalent value may be a 5th for the trade up, but it's likely to have a premium pick, in a way that getting a pick like a 4th wouldn't.
And clearing a roster spot for Randall Cobb (or Jordy Nelson or Donald driver or whoever)