NFL Free Agency Game Thread: Rumors! News! Uneducated Guesses!

rodderick

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I think this is a good move for the Browns, makes a lot of sense to buy low on a guy who has had either Zach Wilson, Mike White or Joe Flacco throwing to him in every snap of his career thus far.
 

DJnVa

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If you go about 1:40 into this video the Raiders have a painting of the snow bowl "tuck rule" play in their stadium. And of course Jimmy G saying "it was a fumble".

But why tf would you have that painting and play memorialized? It's like the Sox having a painting of Armbrister interfering with Fisk in Fenway. It's weird.


 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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It's so bizarre I feel like I am missing something.
What you're missing is that organization's identity of the perpetually aggrieved. Al Davis was a masterful team builder but he also was the world's biggest victim, according to himself. Everyone was always out to get him blah blah blah. Considering his failson owns the team now and they've won nothing in nearly two generations, they've decided to latch onto "We wuz robbed!' as a team identity.
 

BuellMiller

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If you go about 1:40 into this video the Raiders have a painting of the snow bowl "tuck rule" play in their stadium. And of course Jimmy G saying "it was a fumble".

But why tf would you have that painting and play memorialized? It's like the Sox having a painting of Armbrister interfering with Fisk in Fenway. It's weird.


I guess it's probably the old "Us vs Everyone else" mentality of Al Davis and the league, refs, etc are all out to get the Raiders*.
(A better analogy would probably be if the Yankees had the A-Rod/Arroyo play as a painting in Yankee Stadium, as another crucial play that the refs/umpires ended up getting right).

(*or what SJH said).
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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What you're missing is that organization's identity of the perpetually aggrieved. Al Davis was a masterful team builder but he also was the world's biggest victim, according to himself. Everyone was always out to get him blah blah blah. Considering his failson owns the team now and they've won nothing in nearly two generations, they've decided to latch onto "We wuz robbed!' as a team identity.
It's funny how the lore of the tuck rule game is that the Raiders were ruined by it. Things were never the same thereafter, right?

Except for the part where the next year they were a 1 seed in the playoffs, made the Super Bowl, and got blown out by a team they were favored to beat.

They never talk about that part. Presumably because it underscores that the tuck rule had nothing to do with their woes. Their woes are the result of being a fucking awful franchise.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I recommend people watch Al Davis A Football Life and form their own opinion
Look, I like Al. He was on the cutting edge of many things and the league would have been better off had they not spent so much time trying to fight him.

But at the same time, his very strengths turned into his biggest weaknesses as he got older and he wore those wrongs like a hairshirt.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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It's funny how the lore of the tuck rule game is that the Raiders were ruined by it. Things were never the same thereafter, right?

Except for the part where the next year they were a 1 seed in the playoffs, made the Super Bowl, and got blown out by a team they were favored to beat.

They never talk about that part. Presumably because it underscores that the tuck rule had nothing to do with their woes. Their woes are the result of being a fucking awful franchise.
They did have some genuine shit luck along the way: Siragusa deliberately injuring Gannon in the AFCCG. Barrett Robbins literally losing his mind just before their Super Bowl. Bill Callahan not changing the signals or calls before that Super Bowl etc.

But the game eventually passed Al by and he never acknowledged that.
 

trekfan55

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It's funny how the lore of the tuck rule game is that the Raiders were ruined by it. Things were never the same thereafter, right?

Except for the part where the next year they were a 1 seed in the playoffs, made the Super Bowl, and got blown out by a team they were favored to beat.

They never talk about that part. Presumably because it underscores that the tuck rule had nothing to do with their woes. Their woes are the result of being a fucking awful franchise.
They most defintely made the wrong choice in replacing Gruden, and still got to the Super Bowl as the # 1 seed.

Yeah, it wasn't the tuck rule or the play that ruined them.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I dunno. I prefer to celebrate my teams success, but if they're just memorializing the teams history, the snow bowl is an important part of the Raiders franchise.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I think most well run teams have a general understanding of future cap increases and probably also have a general budget of how much empty cap space they are willing to tolerate in future years — that is charges on your cap where you won’t even have a player to show for it. There’s a limit to what you can do, though, before you are forced into making bad decisions that take more than a one-year reset to fix.
 

Van Everyman

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I still can’t believe that the NFL allows teams— or at least teams that just moved cities and have to promote their new stadiums—to circumvent cap rules using escrow accounts. But then again it’s the NFL so it’s also not surprising at all.
 

Van Everyman

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rodderick

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Man, I went from "Lamar Jackson is one of my favorite players and I'd give two first round picks and 200+ million guaranteed to watch him every Sunday for five years in a blink" to "uuuuhhhh, what the fuck is wrong with this dude?" in a very short span. The guy looks clueless.
 

j44thor

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Man, I went from "Lamar Jackson is one of my favorite players and I'd give two first round picks and 200+ million guaranteed to watch him every Sunday for five years in a blink" to "uuuuhhhh, what the fuck is wrong with this dude?" in a very short span. The guy looks clueless.
Who needs NFL $$ when you are going to make Elon $$$ selling adjustable dumbbells in a nice case.
 

ManicCompression

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Why doesn't he just hire an agent? It seems silly to be this stubborn about something that Rosenhaus could fix in like 24 hours.
 

Cellar-Door

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Why doesn't he just hire an agent? It seems silly to be this stubborn about something that Rosenhaus could fix in like 24 hours.
Maybe, but I kind of doubt it. The agent thing is fun to spin, but the core of the issue is pretty obviously that he and the Ravens have very different assessments of how much guaranteed money he should get. No agent might be hurting him in the PR war, but if he doesn't care and is willing to use every advantage he has... even without an agent he can basically screw the franchise.

LeVeon Bell had a really good agent... he also wasn't willing to play on the contract he was offerred, the team wasn't willing to pay him what he wanted, having an agent changed nothing.
 

Shelterdog

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Why doesn't he just hire an agent? It seems silly to be this stubborn about something that Rosenhaus could fix in like 24 hours.
My guess is he just doesn't see the value in paying a representative 20 million bucks or whatever the rate is. Obviously penny wise and pound foolish in his circumstances.
 

rodderick

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My guess is he just doesn't see the value in paying a representative 20 million bucks or whatever the rate is. Obviously penny wise and pound foolish in his circumstances.
From all I've read, it's about 1-2% of the contract and 5-10% of endorsements for players of his caliber. My estimate is he's lost about 10 times more money than the agent would have made with these stupid hijinks.
 

rodderick

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Maybe, but I kind of doubt it. The agent thing is fun to spin, but the core of the issue is pretty obviously that he and the Ravens have very different assessments of how much guaranteed money he should get. No agent might be hurting him in the PR war, but if he doesn't care and is willing to use every advantage he has... even without an agent he can basically screw the franchise.

LeVeon Bell had a really good agent... he also wasn't willing to play on the contract he was offerred, the team wasn't willing to pay him what he wanted, having an agent changed nothing.
LeVeon Bell played the least valued position in football, Lamar plays the most valuable position in sports. The mere fact that we're comparing the situations is a sign of how much he screwed up these negotiations.
 

ManicCompression

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Maybe, but I kind of doubt it. The agent thing is fun to spin, but the core of the issue is pretty obviously that he and the Ravens have very different assessments of how much guaranteed money he should get. No agent might be hurting him in the PR war, but if he doesn't care and is willing to use every advantage he has... even without an agent he can basically screw the franchise.
Yeah, but an agent could put feelers out to teams and backchannel with trusted people. Lamar and his mom and this Ken guy don't have those kinds of relationships. Clearly.

My guess is he just doesn't see the value in paying a representative 20 million bucks or whatever the rate is. Obviously penny wise and pound foolish in his circumstances.
NFL agents don't take more than 3% from the player's contract. If he signs for $200 million, the agent gets $6 million. They're like a real estate broker. Penny wise, pound foolish is right.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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My guess is he just doesn't see the value in paying a representative 20 million bucks or whatever the rate is. Obviously penny wise and pound foolish in his circumstances.
NFL agent commissions are capped at 3%. So $10m or so max even if Lamar gets his Watson-esque deal. He most likely just doesn't trust anyone who comes back to him with less saying it's the best he can get.
 

BaseballJones

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So if Lamar doesn't want to use an agent, my guess is that some team is going to get him on a very team-friendly deal when all is said and done. Because teams clearly don't want to pay him what he's looking for, and without an agent, he doesn't have the connections or the personal horsepower to get more done.

He could just sit out, of course. But....that doesn't get him the contract he wants.
 

ManicCompression

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So if Lamar doesn't want to use an agent, my guess is that some team is going to get him on a very team-friendly deal when all is said and done.
This will go about as well as when Ricky Williams hired Master P as his agent (which is to say, not well). There's a reason the NFLPA has to vet representation.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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So if Lamar doesn't want to use an agent, my guess is that some team is going to get him on a very team-friendly deal when all is said and done. Because teams clearly don't want to pay him what he's looking for, and without an agent, he doesn't have the connections or the personal horsepower to get more done.

He could just sit out, of course. But....that doesn't get him the contract he wants.
Fortunately for Lamar, the NFLPA will probably let him know if he's going to get pantsed even though he's essentially called the NFLPA liars here.
 

Shelterdog

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From all I've read, it's about 1-2% of the contract and 5-10% of endorsements for players of his caliber. My estimate is he's lost about 10 times more money than the agent would have made with these stupid hijinks.
oh i agree, i thought it was more like 5 percent of contract but man, his decision is even worse since it's lower.
 

Cellar-Door

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LeVeon Bell played the least valued position in football, Lamar plays the most valuable position in sports. The mere fact that we're comparing the situations is a sign of how much he screwed up these negotiations.
Not really. I'm just pointing to guys who held to a spot and chose to hold out even if it cost them. If anything the real difference is that BAL is far less likely to just let him skip a year than Bell, it's a lot easier to let your RB hold out than light your season on fire by not paying the QB who is integral to your offense and team success. If you want we could look at Aaron Donald, who did the same, the team then caved and gave him by far the biggest contract and guarantees at his position ever.


Yeah, but an agent could put feelers out to teams and backchannel with trusted people. Lamar and his mom and this Ken guy don't have those kinds of relationships. Clearly.
I think it's overrated. The union certainly can get him in touch, and they have been helping him. The reason he doesn't have an offer sheet isn't because he doesn't have an agent, it's because the owners don't want to meet his guarantee request, whether for precedent or for on-field reasons. Now maybe an agent does a better job figuring out what to ask for, but at the end of the day, it's about what the player wants.
 

joe dokes

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So if Lamar doesn't want to use an agent, my guess is that some team is going to get him on a very team-friendly deal when all is said and done. Because teams clearly don't want to pay him what he's looking for, and without an agent, he doesn't have the connections or the personal horsepower to get more done.

He could just sit out, of course. But....that doesn't get him the contract he wants.
A team friendly deal that sounds other-worldy in the immediate twitterverse headlines:

Jackson signs 11 Billion Dollar Deal a dollar a year for 11 billion years
 

BigJimEd

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From all I've read, it's about 1-2% of the contract and 5-10% of endorsements for players of his caliber. My estimate is he's lost about 10 times more money than the agent would have made with these stupid hijinks.
First, what hijinks? Representing himself? Is that hijinks?

There's just no way to know this at the moment. No way to even guess until he actually signs a deal. Plenty of guys with agents have been tagged and have gone much longer then March 24th before signing a contract. Some of you seem to be projecting. Maybe it turns out poorly for Lamar but at this point, I don't see much different then plenty of other negotiations. Players is steadfast they want X, team(s) aren't willing to go there. We'll see where it ends.
 

ManicCompression

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I think it's overrated. The union certainly can get him in touch, and they have been helping him. The reason he doesn't have an offer sheet isn't because he doesn't have an agent, it's because the owners don't want to meet his guarantee request, whether for precedent or for on-field reasons. Now maybe an agent does a better job figuring out what to ask for, but at the end of the day, it's about what the player wants.
You think backchanneling is overrated? How do you think these deals work? Do you think if Deshaun Watson was working alone he'd get $250 million guaranteed? Yeah, what the player wants is important, but the agent's job is to manage his expectations while getting the best deal possible for him, which requires candid, off the record conversations with a number of teams and playing them against each other (and subtly leveraging his other clients in the process). Lamar is not capable of doing that because he is the player.

Is that agent still a member on this board? I forget his SN. Curious to know his take on this.
 

DJnVa

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You think backchanneling is overrated? How do you think these deals work? Do you think if Deshaun Watson was working alone he'd get $250 million guaranteed? Yeah, what the player wants is important, but the agent's job is to manage his expectations while getting the best deal possible for him, which requires candid, off the record conversations with a number of teams and playing them against each other (and subtly leveraging his other clients in the process). Lamar is not capable of doing that because he is the player.

Is that agent still a member on this board? I forget his SN. Curious to know his take on this.

Yo @Otto
 

rodderick

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First, what hijinks? Representing himself? Is that hijinks?

There's just no way to know this at the moment. No way to even guess until he actually signs a deal. Plenty of guys with agents have been tagged and have gone much longer then March 24th before signing a contract. Some of you seem to be projecting. Maybe it turns out poorly for Lamar but at this point, I don't see much different then plenty of other negotiations. Players is steadfast they want X, team(s) aren't willing to go there. We'll see where it ends.
To me when he answers reports with Twitter memes or when the league is putting memos out there about a dude he's selling home gym equipment with not being a credentialed agent teams should negotiate with his value drops. I don't think it reflects well on his maturity and I guess you could point to Watson and say teams don't care about that, but I think some do. All it takes is one owner, but if it makes anyone second guess, your bargaining power is already diminished.
 

Otto

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I'm glad to be relevant once or twice a year ...
I can't type a full explanation in the time I have right now, but I think this is a problem for different reasons than those being reported. I think not having an agent makes everything a complete wildcard for teams. Teams know how to find him, know how to contact him, and know how to make him offers, but that's just not how they work. Its not the backchannels or the sales pitches. Its the process that follows. Lots of teams want to talk to an agent about a player with a general agreement to keep things quiet until the two sides know where they stand. Lamar has no reason to go along with that and that's totally foreign to the NFLPA. Most teams don't even say it - they talk in broad terms about it and make you say that you won't be running to the press or shopping their interest to other teams as soon as you hang up the phone. Those teams love to complain when they think you did those things. How does that conversation go with Lamar? Huge problem. Also, lots of teams want to give the agent a few terms (e.g., $X guaranteed first Y years) and then have the agent propose the rest because the rest is a minefield. How is Lamar going to do that, when the contract comes back and has partial guarantees for skill and injury but not for cap in years 3 and 4? Will they be able to slip those things by or will it blow up the deal? They always slide stuff in - that's why they do it that way. But the agent is the gatekeeper so they are prepared for that and know how to smooth those things over and keep the deal on track.

To me, it is a complete cluster because teams know it will be messy and it could be for nothing.
 

ManicCompression

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I can't type a full explanation in the time I have right now, but I think this is a problem for different reasons than those being reported. I think not having an agent makes everything a complete wildcard for teams. Teams know how to find him, know how to contact him, and know how to make him offers, but that's just not how they work. Its not the backchannels or the sales pitches. Its the process that follows. Lots of teams want to talk to an agent about a player with a general agreement to keep things quiet until the two sides know where they stand. Lamar has no reason to go along with that and that's totally foreign to the NFLPA. Most teams don't even say it - they talk in broad terms about it and make you say that you won't be running to the press or shopping their interest to other teams as soon as you hang up the phone. Those teams love to complain when they think you did those things. How does that conversation go with Lamar? Huge problem. Also, lots of teams want to give the agent a few terms (e.g., $X guaranteed first Y years) and then have the agent propose the rest because the rest is a minefield. How is Lamar going to do that, when the contract comes back and has partial guarantees for skill and injury but not for cap in years 3 and 4? Will they be able to slip those things by or will it blow up the deal? They always slide stuff in - that's why they do it that way. But the agent is the gatekeeper so they are prepared for that and know how to smooth those things over and keep the deal on track.

To me, it is a complete cluster because teams know it will be messy and it could be for nothing.
Thanks - this is awesome info. Do you think this is a reasonable explanation as to why teams like Carolina said "no thanks" before free agency even began? Having seen Lamar's tactics so far, subtlety doesn't seem to be a strong suit