NFL owners have approved XP changes
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
PseuFighter said:
You can probably save a botched snap by some miracle but why the hell would you run a fake from the 15 when you can start the play at the 2?
johnmd20 said:
i guarantee someone will do this at some point to try to totally catch a sleeping defense.
soxhop411 said:
That's a 32 yarder. Can anybody find data on percent of kicks made over the last few years from 32 +/- a few yards (say, 30-35)? I can find 30-39 data but that's probably not that useful as 38-39 yard kicks are probably a decent amount harder than 32 yard kicks.
I'm trying to figure out how much this really changes the calculation regarding whether or not to go for two in a greater range of circumstances.
This is going to be…somewhat awesome.
Statistically, NFL kickers made 88.5% of kicks between 30-39 yards last year. If we extrapolate that to all of the touchdowns (1187 in 2014), that means we are expected to see 137 missed extra points this season, which means that shit is going to be fucking nuts in close games in terms of going for two versus kicking.
In short, it should be awesome for fans, and likely trying and crying for kickers.
Statistically, NFL kickers made 88.5% of kicks between 30-39 yards last year. If we extrapolate that to all of the touchdowns (1187 in 2014), that means we are expected to see 137 missed extra points this season, which means that shit is going to be fucking nuts in close games in terms of going for two versus kicking.
In short, it should be awesome for fans, and likely trying and crying for kickers.
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
If you look at the data from 30-35 yards, accuracy was 92.7% last year, which still means we should see 87 misses if we follow last year's data.
So, team goes for 1, false start. Now a 37 yard kick or can they go for 2? And is a 2pt try then from the 2 or the 7?
And realistically, this works out to probably between 2-6 misses per team per year, so in theory it should drive some extra value for accurate kickers, though still likely nothing more in terms of guaranteed money, nor should there be.
Oil Can Dan said:
Great question. I would guess you kick from the 37 and you can't change to a 2 pointer. But if you could switch, it would be from the 7.
I believe one of the graphics I saw on ESPN had a line that said "decision not final". I'm not sure which of the three proposals that was listed with, but that would suggest they can swap after a penalty, no?
And if the defense intercepts/recovers ball and scores, do they get the same points as the offense would have gotten on a successful try?
To give a more exact calculation of accuracy.
30-35 yards (new pat would be 32) is the following over the past 2 yrs :
Center, which is where they are going to place the ball - 97.6%
Hashes ~93%.
So expected points from a kicked pat would be .976, while expected points on 2 point attempts is slightly higher at .99. So teams will certainly try for more 2 pt conversions, but probably not an overwhelming difference. I would think any time a team is down by 8 throughout the game they would go for 2.
You have to be careful with the % for conversions being thrown out there, because most include FG attempts from hashes and use 30-39 FG range. Obviously that percentage is lower than 32 yd FG in the middle of the field.
30-35 yards (new pat would be 32) is the following over the past 2 yrs :
Center, which is where they are going to place the ball - 97.6%
Hashes ~93%.
So expected points from a kicked pat would be .976, while expected points on 2 point attempts is slightly higher at .99. So teams will certainly try for more 2 pt conversions, but probably not an overwhelming difference. I would think any time a team is down by 8 throughout the game they would go for 2.
You have to be careful with the % for conversions being thrown out there, because most include FG attempts from hashes and use 30-39 FG range. Obviously that percentage is lower than 32 yd FG in the middle of the field.
I'm sure part of the rule will be that when the Patriots line up for a 2 point conversion the officials have the option of making them run it from their own 2.
Assuming it's impossible to turn a FG/PAT into a 2-point play with this if -- blocked kick, fumble on return, kicking team runs it back.
But I'm sure the NFL has outlined every possible scenario, of course.
But I'm sure the NFL has outlined every possible scenario, of course.
I think coaches are so conservative that they will nearly always take the field goal try unless their kicker is particularly bad. We know that the percentages favor going for it on 4th down far, far more often than teams actually do. What would make this any different? The FG will still be seen as the safe play.
Where did you get that data, out of curiosity?In my lifetime said:
Teams are also going to have their kicker practicing this one specific kick over and over. I don't expect that to make a huge difference but I wouldn't be surprised if it improves accuracy on the margins.
According to ESPN, PAT's were 99% successful this year. 33 yard kicks (not sure why not 32, but they said 33) were 91% successful. Returns by defense (on a 2 point try or a blocked kick) are 2 points for the defense. Rule is for 1 year only for "testing", and could be repealed or made permanent after the season.
Have we gotten an answer to this?Oil Can Dan said:
Also, I feel like explaining this to a football neophyte will make this game seem hopelessly complicated.
riboflav said:
This actually does bring up the possibility of icing the kicker if a team scores a potential tying touchdown in the final seconds of a game.
But yes, it will also likely be ruined somehow.
In my lifetime said:
I wish they moved the ball to the hash where the previous play ended, just like on regular plays. It would be a little more unpredictable.
Lose Remerswaal said:
According to what I've found there were only 8 missed XPs last year. Of those:
5 were blocked
1 hit the left upright (Dan Carpenter)
1 missed wide right (Greg Zuerlein)
1 was "aborted" (I'm guessing bad snap - don't have access to the full game film.
So in theory if we blame the line for the blocks (not 100% sure but likely), there were two bad kicks by a K on an extra point last year. May continue to go back and look deeper not only on XP but short FGs as well.
I love the scenario of the end of a game, down by 7, offense goes down and scores and now the kicker has to hit a 32 yard XP to tie it. In pressure situations that's not as automatic. Imagine the teams reaction if the kicker blows it on an XP.
CSNNE.com @CSNNE · 39m39 minutes ago
Bill Polian: 'Obvious' Pats proposed PAT change for their benefit, via @PhilAPerry: http://cmcst.sn/iiN
Bill Polian: 'Obvious' Pats proposed PAT change for their benefit, via @PhilAPerry: http://cmcst.sn/iiN
soxhop411 said:
He's a fucking moron:
This has nothing to do with field goals and his bias is coloring his "analysis". He's a sore loser and has never been one to hold his teams accountable and would rather blame a loss on the elements than failings of his own doing.
I am really shocked that the whiny douche-nozzle Polian is complaining about the rules. He and Harbaugh should start a support group.
I am all for more end of the game drama, especially in the winter.
I am all for more end of the game drama, especially in the winter.
I haven't read this yet, but Ravens lineman (and mathematician?) John Urschell discussed the futility of this rule change in Jeter's rag.
http://www.theplayerstribune.com/nfl-extra-point-moved-back-john-urschel/
http://www.theplayerstribune.com/nfl-extra-point-moved-back-john-urschel/
Ed Hillel said:
It'd be awesome to have a compilation video of known Pats haters' reactions of the moment that throw was picked off by Butler. They went from "Seattle is about to win" to "Aw, fuck" in a split second.
Marbleheader said:
Since we're talking about missing easy kicks, they probably looked more like the Ravens here, although this is closer than the new XP line.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nURz04Y9s8
Yes theirs did not include the ability for the defense to score. The Eagles submitted one that was similar as well, but the 2 point try would be moved to the 1 yd line. This one was proposed by the league itself, I believe by the Competition Committee.joe dokes said:
I'd have preferred that they just made the PAT automatic unless you choose to go for two, but at least it makes the PAT a more competitive play, especially in January. Will be quite interesting the first time a missed PAT costs a team a playoff spot or a playoff win with the new rule.