Nope, you're not.Am I missing something with Jimmy G? He wasn’t even that good last season.
Nope, you're not.Am I missing something with Jimmy G? He wasn’t even that good last season.
I was also confused by everyone wanting JG back. He's had one full season where he was very good. Everything beyond that is projection. I will say however, that the logic in this thread about JG being their best option for this year does ring true. It also makes a ton of sense to me why they would want a chance to draft a guy in this QB class in case JG gets hurt, underperforms, and in any event for next year and beyond.Nope, you're not.
At its simplest version:I was also confused by everyone wanting JG back. He's had one full season where he was very good. Everything beyond that is projection. I will say however, that the logic in this thread about JG being their best option for this year does ring true. It also makes a ton of sense to me why they would want a chance to draft a guy in this QB class in case JG gets hurt, underperforms, and in any event for next year and beyond.
Jimmy's best scenario, IMO, is to start for the Niners while they groom their rookie QB, and he plays well on a stacked roster and takes them (deep?) into the postseason, thus setting himself up for a decent contract next year when the Niners inevitable cut him. I completely agree that he would not willingly forfeit the $25M for a chance to start elsewhere. But that being said, I think you could argue that the second best scenario for Jimmy - assuming no one is willing to trade for his contract - would be to get cut, sign with the Pats for a below market deal (~$10-15M or whatever), have a solid season on a pretty good roster, and set himself up to get paid again next year.That aside, JG is still owed $25m. I cant imagine - based on his injury history and average success on the field - that he'd be willing to forfeit that for a chance to start elsewhere. He can wait a year, collect $25m, and give it a go in free agency next year. Hes not going to take a paycut, and I see very little value in extending him/pushing his cap into future years when we still, four full seasons later, have no idea if hes worth building around.
I think the most likely spot for the Patriots is 7. If the guy they like is there 7 is doable.At this point they'd be dumb to go up into the top five until they see whom the Niners select. I doubt the Pats see all the QBs as equally desirable, and to spend the draft capital necessary to go up to 4 or 5 and then discover the guy you were targeting is gone would be a disaster.
I don't get the JG love. The guy can't stay on the field, and he hasn't been that great when he has played. I'm cautiously optimistic Cam will be a lot better next year with better weapons and better health. I also would have been fine with the Pats going up to get a QB in this draft, but I think the Niners going up to three may have shut the door on that possibility.
I disagree with this. Mac Jones wasn't making it to 12 no matter what.Mac Jones at 3 is fine, but if you’re the 49ers, you get an F- for reading the room and a F- for trade value.
He’s their guy, fits their system, blah, blah, blah, blah. That’s fine but you could have had Mac Jones and two additional first rounders if you sat there and did nothing.
Which is why I won’t believe it’s Mac Jones until they actually draft him. I still think it’s Trey Lance.
Once you get this far in the logic, you kinda have to see how it all plays out. I mean, the friggin' JETS are picking at 2 and always have the potential to go full JETS! Then you can see who SF actually picks (let's assume it's Mac for the sake of argument). If the Pats are in love with a specific QB and he's available at 4, then they can go get him. If they like 2 guys about equally, they can make offers to ATL AND CIN. At that point, who knows if the price goes up or down. Because on the one hand, you can now guarantee to get one of your 2 guys with either the ATL or the CIN pick (drives price down), but in this scenario all the other clubs see this too and probably try to move on those picks as well (drives price up).I think the most likely spot for the Patriots is 7. If the guy they like is there 7 is doable.
I think ATL is going to want more for 4 than they are willing to pay, I think CIN stays at 5 and MIA stays at 6 (why pre-emptively trade back up unless you have a very specific plan).
My feeling for the most likely trade is if the QB the Pats want is available come 7, they'll need to leapfrog up over CAR. DET seems unlikely to take a QB (they appear to want to give Goff a chance) and they are rebuilding, so more picks are better there.
Just my $0.02, but any serious discussion/comparison of JG has to include the sample size (i.e. games played).I'm not a big JG fanboy, but it does feel like a lot of people here are really down on him
Career numbers - Rate, ANY/A
Watson 104.5 - 7.26
Wilson 101.7 - 6.99
JG 98.9 - 7.00
Dak 97.3 - 7.00
Up against the other 3 big name QBs who've been "available" or sort-of available this off-season, JG is right there.
Has he been hurt a lot? Sure, but one or two injuries is all it takes to go from a solid guy to "injury-prone". Does this mean he'll be hurt in the future? Maybe, but I wouldn't stake my life on it.
Has he had better weapons than other guys? Maybe, not everyone has a George Kittle.
Was this past season his best? No it was not, and if you believe that's reflective of what he is now then you might be right.
But I think to describe his performances on the field overall as less than "pretty good, actually" are a bit harsh.
This is my take too. Given the price established to move from 12 to 3, I think ATL would ask for a similar return to go from 15 to 4 and I just have trouble seeing BB doing that (although you never know). The Patriots really need four things to happen. 1) At least one QB they really like to still be available after SF picks. 2) ATL not to trade their pick to somebody who wants that guy. 3) MIA not to get blown away by an offer for their pick, in a way that causes them to rethink what is likely a plan to draft Pitts or Chase at 6. 4) Win any bidding contest for Detroit's pick.I think the most likely spot for the Patriots is 7. If the guy they like is there 7 is doable.
I think ATL is going to want more for 4 than they are willing to pay, I think CIN stays at 5 and MIA stays at 6 (why pre-emptively trade back up unless you have a very specific plan).
My feeling for the most likely trade is if the QB the Pats want is available come 7, they'll need to leapfrog up over CAR. DET seems unlikely to take a QB (they appear to want to give Goff a chance) and they are rebuilding, so more picks are better there.
Yeah if Wilson goes 2 and Mac goes 3, then 1) is a success. 2) who knows. 3) I doubt Miami trades back out but crazier things have happened 4) absolutely correct. So it really comes down to outbidding someone for 4 or 7. I think the Pats best bet is to wait and see what happens too. If it goes Lawrence-Wilson-Mac, then first see what happens at 4 - if Atlanta trades it, and Lance or Fields is picked, then if the guy the Pats love is picked, so be it. If the guy the Pats love ISN'T picked, then give up whatever you need to at 7 to grab him.This is my take too. Given the price established to move from 12 to 3, I think ATL would ask for a similar return to go from 15 to 4 and I just have trouble seeing BB doing that (although you never know). The Patriots really need four things to happen. 1) At least one QB they really like to still be available after SF picks. 2) ATL not to trade their pick to somebody who wants that guy. 3) MIA not to get blown away by an offer for their pick, in a way that causes them to rethink what is likely a plan to draft Pitts or Chase at 6. 4) Win any bidding contest for Detroit's pick.
Its a difficult parlay but not a completely implausible one.
I could have predicted that without coming up with a fancy formulaThe latest post on Football Outsiders tries to predict the future NFL performance of each of this year's top QB prospects. I find it .... interesting that the projection for Trevor Lawrence gives him an equal probability of falling into each of these categories:
I guess even "generational talents" have a pretty big chance to fail, or end up as mediocre, in the big leagues.
- bust
- adequate starter
- above-average starter
- elite
I wonder if that amount of variance is unique to QBs, even allowing for first-round picks. Do top-end "generational talents" at other positions tend to have less variance?The latest post on Football Outsiders tries to predict the future NFL performance of each of this year's top QB prospects. I find it .... interesting that the projection for Trevor Lawrence gives him an equal probability of falling into each of these categories:
I guess even "generational talents" have a pretty big chance to fail, or end up as mediocre, in the big leagues.
- bust
- adequate starter
- above-average starter
- elite
Or the model isn't that useful.The latest post on Football Outsiders tries to predict the future NFL performance of each of this year's top QB prospects. I find it .... interesting that the projection for Trevor Lawrence gives him an equal probability of falling into each of these categories:
I guess even "generational talents" have a pretty big chance to fail, or end up as mediocre, in the big leagues.
- bust
- adequate starter
- above-average starter
- elite
I think we can safely ignore any model that projects JaMarcus Russell above Mahomes, Watson, and Aaron Rodgers.The latest post on Football Outsiders tries to predict the future NFL performance of each of this year's top QB prospects. I find it .... interesting that the projection for Trevor Lawrence gives him an equal probability of falling into each of these categories:
I guess even "generational talents" have a pretty big chance to fail, or end up as mediocre, in the big leagues.
- bust
- adequate starter
- above-average starter
- elite
I actually think this is true. I'm very down on Mac Jones, but a lot of rumors were circulating that CAR wanted him at 8.I disagree with this. Mac Jones wasn't making it to 12 no matter what.
That said, they probably could have spent less and traded up to somewhere between 5 and 9 and still got him.
If SF takes Jones at 3 I think Miami's pick is very much in play in this scenario: SF takes Jones at 3. Carolina moves up to 4 and takes Lance or Fields. Cincy takes a non QB. Miami trades back to 9 for Denver's 2021 1st, a 2022 1st plus a 2023 1st (or equivalent). Miami would still have available one of: a very highly rated OL, a very highly rated WR, likely the best defensive player on the board or Pitts.I think the most likely spot for the Patriots is 7. If the guy they like is there 7 is doable.
I think ATL is going to want more for 4 than they are willing to pay, I think CIN stays at 5 and MIA stays at 6 (why pre-emptively trade back up unless you have a very specific plan).
My feeling for the most likely trade is if the QB the Pats want is available come 7, they'll need to leapfrog up over CAR. DET seems unlikely to take a QB (they appear to want to give Goff a chance) and they are rebuilding, so more picks are better there.
Possible. I just don't think MIA traded back up to 6 without considering that a QB would go 4. Maybe they just loved the value, but generally a move to 6 this far before the draft makes me think they have a very short list of targets. Otherwise why not wait and see how if falls.If SF takes Jones at 3 I think Miami's pick is very much in play in this scenario: SF takes Jones at 3. Carolina moves up to 4 and takes Lance or Fields. Cincy takes a non QB. Miami trades back to 9 for Denver's 2021 1st, a 2022 1st plus a 2023 1st (or equivalent). Miami would still have available one of: a very highly rated OL, a very highly rated WR, likely the best defensive player on the board or Pitts.
Denver is going to give up two future firsts to move up 3 slots? No chance. Remember Miami already gave up a future first to move from 12 to 6. So they need at least a future first coming back to make it worth their while. Chances are they make a pick, like Pitts or WR1.If SF takes Jones at 3 I think Miami's pick is very much in play in this scenario: SF takes Jones at 3. Carolina moves up to 4 and takes Lance or Fields. Cincy takes a non QB. Miami trades back to 9 for Denver's 2021 1st, a 2022 1st plus a 2023 1st (or equivalent). Miami would still have available one of: a very highly rated OL, a very highly rated WR, likely the best defensive player on the board or Pitts.
Which is why I agree the Pats need to stay patient and see what happens draft night, and be ready to pounce if their guy is available at 7.In gaming out these scenarios, I think its also worth emphasizing that a lot of teams probably won't like at least one (if not both) of the QBs remaining after SF picks, whoever that may be. A lot of football writers have mentioned in the last week that NFL opinions on Fields are all over the map, from top five pick to 4th rounder I think somebody claimed. I can definitely see a lot of teams being wary of giving up major assets for Lance given the combination of scant experience at a relatively low level of competition and hardly playing since 2019. And teams are likely pretty polarized on Jones as well.
It wouldn't be all that surprising if QBs went 1-3 and then the other two guys didn't end up going until somewhere in the 7-15 range.
I agree that the Denver idea is an overpay, but there are enough receiver types that Miami could move again in the top 10-12 if the guy they really want is off the boardDenver is going to give up two future firsts to move up 3 slots? No chance. Remember Miami already gave up a future first to move from 12 to 6. So they need at least a future first coming back to make it worth their while. Chances are they make a pick, like Pitts or WR1.
Agreed. Lets hope they can thread that needle.Which is why I agree the Pats need to stay patient and see what happens draft night, and be ready to pounce if their guy is available at 7.
Agreed, just pointing out what the probable cost is to make it worth their while. Although I suppose if Waddle and Pitts go 4-5 they might sell it off. Never say never. It’d be like Draft Day! (so I’ve heard, never seen it).I agree that the Denver idea is an overpay, but there are enough receiver types that Miami could move again in the top 10-12 if the guy they really want is off the board
The Cleveland Browns front office knows what it's doing ... it's a fantasy filmAgreed, just pointing out what the probable cost is to make it worth their while. Although I suppose if Waddle and Pitts go 4-5 they might sell it off. Never say never. It’d be like Draft Day! (so I’ve heard, never seen it).
I just don't think Miami anticipated that SF would move to 3 to take Jones. That's what makes the 6th pick more valuable ( and worth trading) than it would be if Jones was QB 5 instead of Fields or Lance. If Miami's short list is 1 or 2 players then your right, they stay at 6 and take their guy, but if Miami's short list has 3 names on it then they can trade back to 9 and still get their guy and add draft picks for 2022 /23.Possible. I just don't think MIA traded back up to 6 without considering that a QB would go 4. Maybe they just loved the value, but generally a move to 6 this far before the draft makes me think they have a very short list of targets. Otherwise why not wait and see how if falls.
People are addicted to saying this but the bottom line is that none of us have any ability to read the room on this. You think that because the reporters and draftniks think Mac Jones is the number five QB that gives you insight on what NFL teams think? Most importantly, It only takes one other team to see Mac Jones as a probable high quality NFL starter for you to have zero chance of getting him anywhere past roughly 5.Mac Jones at 3 is fine, but if you’re the 49ers, you get an F- for reading the room and a F- for trade value.
He’s their guy, fits their system, blah, blah, blah, blah. That’s fine but you could have had Mac Jones and two additional first rounders if you sat there and did nothing.
Which is why I won’t believe it’s Mac Jones until they actually draft him. I still think it’s Trey Lance.
That one team is San Francisco. There’s something to be said for bidding against yourself. Who is the other team trading into the top 3 for Mac Jones?People are addicted to saying this but the bottom line is that none of us have any ability to read the room on this. You think that because the reporters and draftniks think Mac Jones is the number five QB that gives you insight on what NFL teams think? Most importantly, It only takes one other team to see Mac Jones as a probable high quality NFL starter for you to have zero chance of getting him anywhere past roughly 5.
I don't get drafting Mac Jones as 3rd QB personally, BUT... if your staff does think he's the clear #3 QB (or higher)... you needed to get to no lower than 4 likely to ensure you get him, because a QB was always going 3, and somebody other than you likely has Jones as their 4th QB or higher. Rumors are CIN isn't taking calls at 5. So now you have to worry about 4 or 6 going to someone else. Price on 4 is likely not much lower than 3, so might as well lock in the spot. Better to go to 3 and "overdraft" than get locked out of a QB prospect you really want because Lance goes 3 and you get outbid for 4. Or Lance goes 3, Fields goes 4 and CAR jumps 2 spots to scoop you on Jones.People are addicted to saying this but the bottom line is that none of us have any ability to read the room on this. You think that because the reporters and draftniks think Mac Jones is the number five QB that gives you insight on what NFL teams think? Most importantly, It only takes one other team to see Mac Jones as a probable high quality NFL starter for you to have zero chance of getting him anywhere past roughly 5.
I don't know, San Francisco doesn't know, and, unless you happen to have access to every NFL team's final draft board (and we could even restrict it to the final draft boards of the 10 or so teams who could pretty plausibly draft a QB), neither do you. Do you know for sure that Carolina wouldn't make that trade? New England? Jets? That the Falcons wouldn't pick him at four? Broncos? Eagles?That one team is San Francisco. There’s something to be said for bidding against yourself. Who is the other team trading into the top 3 for Mac Jones?
Do you have to? Miami and LA both got QBs last year without trading up and letting the board come to them.I don't know, San Francisco doesn't know, and, unless you happen to have access to every NFL team's final draft board (and we could even restrict it to the final draft boards of the 10 or so teams who could pretty plausibly draft a QB), neither do you. Do you know for sure that Carolina wouldn't make that trade? New England? Jets? That the Falcons wouldn't pick him at four? Broncos? Eagles?
If you think he's going to be really good you need to trade up and get him. Particularly since you have to assume other teams might see the same things that you do in his game.
You don't literally have to, but the longer you wait the more risks you run. And the Dolphins and LA only waited until five and six, which is very different from 12.Do you have to? Miami and LA both got QBs last year without trading up and letting the board come to them.
There were less viable QBs in that draft than in this draft.
If the remaining 2 QBs are Fields and Lance, feels like a decent chance.It's hard to believe the Niners are taking Jones at #3. I suspect it's bullshit and they go with one of Fields/Lance.
It's going to be a really interesting first round from the Pats' perspective. They are very clearly set up to bundle picks and move up, given all the FA movement. But if QBs go 1-2-3, what are the odds Belichick likes the leftover QB or two enough to go through with a trade up?
The weird scenario that may play out is that he doesn't like the remaining QB, but moves up to the 4-7 range to take the absolute best defensive player on the board, or the best offensive lineman.
I can't imagine moving top 7 for anything other than a QB. I just don't see where the value is... Sewell? I could see moving up a few spots to grab someone like Surtain, but a big jump almost has to be a QB to make sense on value.It's hard to believe the Niners are taking Jones at #3. I suspect it's bullshit and they go with one of Fields/Lance.
It's going to be a really interesting first round from the Pats' perspective. They are very clearly set up to bundle picks and move up, given all the FA movement. But if QBs go 1-2-3, what are the odds Belichick likes the leftover QB or two enough to go through with a trade up?
The weird scenario that may play out is that he doesn't like the remaining QB, but moves up to the 4-7 range to take the absolute best defensive player on the board, or the best offensive lineman.
I was about to spout off that if BB drafted Gholston he would've made him into a player, but, yikes, I didn't realize how bad he was.(I guess BB tried to make the Jets believe that he was trading up to get Vernon Gholston to get them to overdraft him.)
I tend to agree with this, especially given how make or break QB for most teams. This isn't to say that paying a lot to trade up for other positions isn't necessarily worth it for the right guy, but hitting or missing on your QB just sends franchises on hugely different trajectories. It's very hard to justify, if you think Mac Jones is your franchise QB, not making the deal to lock him in only to have someone jump over you to get him.You don't literally have to, but the longer you wait the more risks you run. And the Dolphins and LA only waited until five and six, which is very different from 12.
Shanahan also said on Good Morning Football that if Jimmy G is mad, that's OK, because he plays better when he's mad. Not sure I've ever heard a coach say that about a quarterback before. Maybe a pass rusher...couple other Shanny quotes
Kyle Shanahan: "To move up to 3, we had to feel good there’d be three guys we’d feel comfortable leading our team for a long time. There’s a chance to get there with four or five. There’s five guys at are kind of at this party." Says he's glad they have month to work on which one
Kyle Shanahan spoke with Garoppolo about trade, too: "Obviously no one wants to hear that. He wasn’t totally excited about it, as you’d expect. This doesn’t change any of our circumstances right now. We’ve got a real good team."
#49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said it's accurate that team is planning to keep Jimmy Garoppolo, barring being blown away by offer. Shanahan said he believes it would be hard to find a QB who helps them win right now more than Garoppolo and excited to have a QB learning behind him.
I'm thinking that if Fields (or to a lesser extent, Lance) is available at 6, the Dolphins absolutely might trade down with the Panthers or Broncos to play keep away with the Pats.I think the most likely spot for the Patriots is 7. If the guy they like is there 7 is doable.
I think ATL is going to want more for 4 than they are willing to pay, I think CIN stays at 5 and MIA stays at 6 (why pre-emptively trade back up unless you have a very specific plan).
My feeling for the most likely trade is if the QB the Pats want is available come 7, they'll need to leapfrog up over CAR. DET seems unlikely to take a QB (they appear to want to give Goff a chance) and they are rebuilding, so more picks are better there.
It might be the first draft I ever watch. GM Bill with his Brady-esque surveying of the field pre and post snap. Options 1 and 2 are covered but the running back is open in the flat and Bill with the perfect dump to #7 for a big gainWhich is why I agree the Pats need to stay patient and see what happens draft night, and be ready to pounce if their guy is available at 7.
More utter BS coming out of Shanahan’s mouth.Shanahan also said on Good Morning Football that if Jimmy G is mad, that's OK, because he plays better when he's mad. Not sure I've ever heard a coach say that about a quarterback before. Maybe a pass rusher...
Miami could trade back if value is good. I think there is little to no chance they do it to keep a particular rookie QB away from the Patriots. It's like the "don't trade in the division" nonsense. Even mediocre front offices don't do that, only bad front offices make decisions based on the hope that somehow they're outsmarting their division rivals.I'm thinking that if Fields (or to a lesser extent, Lance) is available at 6, the Dolphins absolutely might trade down with the Panthers or Broncos to play keep away with the Pats.
Miami could pick up a meaningful asset (at worst, a 2022 first) for the price of risking just 2-3 names coming off the top of their wish list for the #6 spot... and not risk their division rival trading up to #7 to solve their QB problem.
I like your enthusiasm but I think the equivalent of the dump to the flat is going to be draft a versatile lineman from Northwestern and watch him have a Matt Light like career.It might be the first draft I ever watch. GM Bill with his Brady-esque surveying of the field pre and post snap. Options 1 and 2 are covered but the running back is open in the flat and Bill with the perfect dump to #7 for a big gain
I totally get the rationale* in keeping Jimmy G for a year. But we are about two minutes in and already they have had to explain and re-explain their thinking and their plan, and insist they are never trading him (well, unless...), and furthermore they have discussed and then re-discussed his psyche (and who here doesn’t love having their boss repeatedly giving out psychological profiles of us?).More utter BS coming out of Shanahan’s mouth.
Also having that pick at 18 gives the Phins a wealth of options. If they're looking at 5 QBs going off the board in the top-6, then dropping down 2-3 slots could net them a player from their board's top-tier plus more picks. Or, if they see the talent leveling off for the next 20-odd players, they could drop to 15, 17, 19, 20, 24, or even 28 and get a huge haul and still have #18 that they could package to move up for a specific guy or trade for future another future 1st. The Miami draft team must be really grinding here given that all the possible moves they could make - basically every non-QB is in play for them.Miami could trade back if value is good. I think there is little to no chance they do it to keep a particular rookie QB away from the Patriots. It's like the "don't trade in the division" nonsense. Even mediocre front offices don't do that, only bad front offices make decisions based on the hope that somehow they're outsmarting their division rivals.