Not our Star Blazer: Yamamoto signs with the Dodgers for $325 million, 12 years

[TimScribble]

View: https://twitter.com/marino_pepen/status/1736070999039254661?s=46&t=7XazH1NKZP26a4WUZikbkQ

Los #RedSox le han hecho una oferta a Yoshinobu Yamamoto de poco más de $300 MM, con cláusulas e incentivos convenientes para las dos partes.

La suerte está echada…

#MediasRojas
#MLB

The #RedSox have made an offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto of just over $300 MM, with clauses and incentives convenient for both parties.

The die is cast…

#MediasRojas
#MLB

 

[TimScribble]

I think he was way off last year with X but had Devers.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

^ My rudimentary Spanish says... Red Sox have a little over 300M offer to Yamamoto outstanding, with "clauses and incentives" beneficial to both sides (opt out? TJ protection?)

I don't think that offer, if real, gets it done, but it would be a competitive one.

 

[BigSoxFan]

^ My rudimentary Spanish says... Red Sox have a little over 300M offer to Yamamoto outstanding, with "clauses and incentives" beneficial to both sides (opt out? TJ protection?)

I don't think that offer, if real, gets it done, but it would be a competitive one.

Depends on where the other offers are. I don’t think low 300s gets it done either but it should at least be in the ballpark.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/marino_pepen/status/1736070999039254661?s=46&t=7XazH1NKZP26a4WUZikbkQ

Los #RedSox le han hecho una oferta a Yoshinobu Yamamoto de poco más de $300 MM, con cláusulas e incentivos convenientes para las dos partes.

La suerte está echada…

#MediasRojas
#MLB

The #RedSox have made an offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto of just over $300 MM, with clauses and incentives convenient for both parties.

The die is cast…

#MediasRojas
#MLB

I ultimately think the team that gets him is going to have to include opt out clauses. He’s going to get a massive number. It’s the other items that’s going to close this deal.

If he can hit free agency at 30 it would be enormous for him.

 

[YTF]

Maybe he narrows it down to 2 or 3 and then takes a trip or two. I just don’t see signing up for 10-12 years sight unseen.

That's what I'm thinking, no need to do all of that senseless running around.

 

[chrisfont9]

Maybe he narrows it down to 2 or 3 and then takes a trip or two. I just don’t see signing up for 10-12 years sight unseen.

Just like picking where your kids go to college!

 

[chrisfont9]

I ultimately think the team that gets him is going to have to include opt out clauses. He’s going to get a massive number. It’s the other items that’s going to close this deal.

If he can hit free agency at 30 it would be enormous for him.

Might not be terrible for his team either. I'm all for a front-loaded deal with opt outs for the Sox. Sure, it means he's out at that point, but that's a battle for another day.

 

[simplicio]

10/300+ with an opt out after 5 years and those first 5 years at $40m? I'd be down.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

10-12 yrs guarantee at $30M+ per with a player opt out after 3 years (hell, try to get another after 5) is what YY should shoot for, and if there is this many desperate teams interested, there’s no doubt he can get that.

 

[chrisfont9]

10/300+ with an opt out after 5 years and those first 5 years at $40m? I'd be down.

Seriously. Just get him in the building and worry about the future later. I do think that playing for the Sox in a competitive year is a great selling point to any truly competitive guy, which he almost certainly is, given his track record.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Optimist: Look at the offer they made to Yamamoto
Pessimist: Yup, Just enough to look competitive, with little chance of him taking it
Optimist: Then they'll just spread the same money out on other free agents
Pessimist: Yup, Just enough to look competitive, with little chance of them taking it

 

[Remagellan]

Optimist: Look at the offer they made to Yamamoto
Pessimist: Yup, Just enough to look competitive, with little chance of him taking it
Optimist: Then they'll just spread the same money out on other free agents
Pessimist: Yup, Just enough to look competitive, with little chance of them taking it

Yet somehow, we'll win another championship in a year or two, God willing!

 

[soxhop411]

Instagram tracking is now getting a bit insane…
View: https://twitter.com/BostonStrong_34/status/1736083094883516906

 

[GPO Man]

I’d rather pay him $50 million more than have opt outs which doesn’t guarantee he’s a Red Sox for the next decade.

 

[budcrew08]

Signing YY today would make a pretty nice early Christmas present

 

[sezwho]

I’d rather pay him $50 million more than have opt outs which doesn’t guarantee he’s a Red Sox for the next decade.

I don’t care at all where he is even five years from now. Breslow has time to start undoing all things Red Sox pitching, it’s now that seems dependent upon the man who hasn’t pitched in MLB.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

I don’t care at all where he is even five years from now. Breslow has time to start undoing all things Red Sox pitching, it’s now that seems dependent upon the man who hasn’t pitched in MLB.

WIll be interesting to see what Bailey and Breslow can do with our current talent as well as how they will impact our future drafts.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

I didn't compare them to the Mets--@The Gray Eagle took a comment I made about the Dodgers and conflated it with a later post about the Mets spending last year. But I do think the lack of stability of the organization and its approach can negatively impact their pursuit of free agents. Look at this case, there was talk about how our signing Yoshida might help with signing Yamamoto, because they're buddies. Well sure, but it might also be significant to YY that the guy who signed his buddy is no longer employed by the team.

The only team I could see really blowing him out of the water with an offer would be the Mets, because Cohen could offer him a deal in the neighborhood of Ohtani's without the deferred money shenanigans. And YY can go there knowing that, unlike in Boston, the ownership will always be ready to spend money to be competitive, although with less assurance that it will be spent wisely than in other places (like the Dodgers or the MFYs).

I guess I conflated the part where you said "knowing that, unlike in Boston, the ownership will always be ready to spend money to be competitive," as comparing the Mets with the Red Sox, my apologies.
I must have also misunderstood that when you said "always" that didn't count the time less than 5 months ago, when Cohen directly told Scherzer they would definitely not be spending to try to contend for at least another year, possibly 2.

My only disagreement with you is the idea that Yamamoto might consider the Mets to be more committed to winning than the Red Sox-- I mean I guess he might believe anything, but there's direct evidence that Cohen does not have a consistent long term organizational plan for winning. He has gone back and forth multiple times already. How could any player look at him and what he said to Scherzer in July and trust him to not change his mind again next year or the year after or whenever?

The Red Sox have been trying to do a rebuild of the farm system while also trying to get in the playoffs, and have failed the last 2 seasons. The last 2 seasons have sucked. But in the bigger picture (which should be of interest to a guy who will get a 10+ year contract) the owners have a two-decade-long track record of spending and winning. And they didn't tell a star player to waive their no-trade and get out while they can because the team won't be trying to win for the next 1.5 to 2.5 years. The Sox have actually been ripped for the past 2 trade deadlines for not selling off more players because they thought they could still contend.

That's a vast difference between these two ownerships, and if Yamamoto is looking for an owner that he knows will always be trying to win, Cohen's recent flip flops are really relevant. Yamamoto might not trust Henry to always try to win either, but he's at least got a long track record of doing that.

And he might well not care either way, that's up to him.

 

[RedOctober3829]

“The #Giants and #RedSox both making a strong recent push for Yoshinobu Yamamoto both with offers more than $300 million dollars according to sources. Certainly others too making strong runs.”View: https://twitter.com/jimbowdengm/status/1736119008594718956?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q

 

[SouthernBoSox]

From a payroll perspective the Giants and Red Sox have made the most sense from day one.

This has been as fascinating of a free agency as I can remember.

 

[EyeBob]

Two questions, IF the the plan is to sign a top tier FA and then acquire another via trade, why would Breslow sign one of the "lesser" FAs before doing either of the former?

Second. rhetorical... Breslow has a certain type of pitcher that he's focused on. Do we know how many of the signees fit that mold?

Because all the GMs that have pitching to trade are waiting for YY to sign and for panic to set in among the teams that didn’t get him. That would surely bring up the value of the trade-worthy pitchers. It’s just poker, man.

 

[bosockboy]

“The #Giants and #RedSox both making a strong recent push for Yoshinobu Yamamoto both with offers more than $300 million dollars according to sources. Certainly others too making strong runs.”View: https://twitter.com/jimbowdengm/status/1736119008594718956?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q

9/325 might do it.

 

[snowmanny]

$351,111,111 is my prediction.

 

[ehaz]

“The #Giants and #RedSox both making a strong recent push for Yoshinobu Yamamoto both with offers more than $300 million dollars according to sources. Certainly others too making strong runs.”View: https://twitter.com/jimbowdengm/status/1736119008594718956?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q

I hope this is real and not a “my client will sign with one of the teams he doesn’t want to sign with if you don’t up your offer” kinda thing.

 

[chawson]

From a payroll perspective the Giants and Red Sox have made the most sense from day one.

This has been as fascinating of a free agency as I can remember.

I don’t know anything about Yamamoto’s personality, but I can’t see how someone could entertain a sincere pitch from fellow countryman and all-universe megastar Shohei Ohtani to join his superteam and then opt to pitch for his rival for the next 10 years.

 

[Remagellan]

I guess I conflated the part where you said "knowing that, unlike in Boston, the ownership will always be ready to spend money to be competitive," as comparing the Mets with the Red Sox, my apologies.
I must have also misunderstood that when you said "always" that didn't count the time less than 5 months ago, when Cohen directly told Scherzer they would definitely not be spending to try to contend for at least another year, possibly 2.

My only disagreement with you is the idea that Yamamoto might consider the Mets to be more committed to winning than the Red Sox-- I mean I guess he might believe anything, but there's direct evidence that Cohen does not have a consistent long term organizational plan for winning. He has gone back and forth multiple times already. How could any player look at him and what he said to Scherzer in July and trust him to not change his mind again next year or the year after or whenever?

The Red Sox have been trying to do a rebuild of the farm system while also trying to get in the playoffs, and have failed the last 2 seasons. The last 2 seasons have sucked. But in the bigger picture (which should be of interest to a guy who will get a 10+ year contract) the owners have a two-decade-long track record of spending and winning. And they didn't tell a star player to waive their no-trade and get out while they can because the team won't be trying to win for the next 1.5 to 2.5 years. The Sox have actually been ripped for the past 2 trade deadlines for not selling off more players because they thought they could still contend.

That's a vast difference between these two ownerships, and if Yamamoto is looking for an owner that he knows will always be trying to win, Cohen's recent flip flops are really relevant. Yamamoto might not trust Henry to always try to win either, but he's at least got a long track record of doing that.

And he might well not care either way, that's up to him.

Apologies, but no worries either way, because in the end, this isn't just about the Sox or the Mets. (I still think he winds up on the Dodgers until proven otherwise.)

But as to concerns about the Sox spending, that perception is out there. It's been on this board going back to when Mookie was dealt. There's an article on the BBC about similar concerns about FSG among Liverpool fans, which now seems ill-timed given Liverpool is currently top of the table:

Glory and fury - Liverpool, Boston and a tale of two teams - BBC Sport

The Sox have actually been ripped for the past 2 trade deadlines for not selling off more players because they thought they could still contend.

And I've been supportive of that, but they've also been ripped by players on the team for not adding at the deadline.

Look, I hope he comes here. But if he doesn't, I'm not going to waste any time wondering why he didn't, because there's more than a few reasons why he might decide to go elsewhere even if the Sox offer is competitive, or even the best one he receives.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I don’t know anything about Yamamoto’s personality, but I can’t see how someone could entertain a sincere pitch from fellow countryman and all-universe megastar Shohei Ohtani to join his superteam and then opt to pitch for his rival for the next 10 years.

He, apparently, is a super alpha with incredible competitiveness. I actually think it would make a ton of sense.

Also, always keep in mind, whenever something like this comes out it’s almost always from the agency side.

 

[koufax32]

$351,111,111 is my prediction.

Too soon

I’m getting really uncomfortable with how high this bidding is going. The recent leaks about BOS bids sounds an awful lot like the “we tried our best” leaks that we’ve heard in the past. In this instance, I may be okay with that. It’s not the dollars that get me. It’s the years. Yes, he’s 25. But the mileage on that arm, presumably, combined with his build has me concerned that he’s done by his early 30’s. Still worth it? I’m not sure.

 

[Max Power]

I don’t know anything about Yamamoto’s personality, but I can’t see how someone could entertain a sincere pitch from fellow countryman and all-universe megastar Shohei Ohtani to join his superteam and then opt to pitch for his rival for the next 10 years.

Some guys are happy being Robin. Maybe Yamamoto wants to be Batman.

 

[Quatchie]

Too soon

I’m getting really uncomfortable with how high this bidding is going. The recent leaks about BOS bids sounds an awful lot like the “we tried our best” leaks that we’ve heard in the past. In this instance, I may be okay with that. It’s not the dollars that get me. It’s the years. Yes, he’s 25. But the mileage on that arm, presumably, combined with his build has me concerned that he’s done by his early 30’s. Still worth it? I’m not sure.

This feels correct. Especially since it seems they've placed a priority on minimal leaks as an organization.

 

[snowmanny]

Too soon

I’m getting really uncomfortable with how high this bidding is going. The recent leaks about BOS bids sounds an awful lot like the “we tried our best” leaks that we’ve heard in the past. In this instance, I may be okay with that. It’s not the dollars that get me. It’s the years. Yes, he’s 25. But the mileage on that arm, presumably, combined with his build has me concerned that he’s done by his early 30’s. Still worth it? I’m not sure.

The trick is to get him to opt out before the decline, right?

 

[DJnVa]

Too soon

I’m getting really uncomfortable with how high this bidding is going. The recent leaks about BOS bids sounds an awful lot like the “we tried our best” leaks that we’ve heard in the past.

These 2 sentences seem contradictory. The bidding seems really high but you also think the Sox are bidding just so they can say "we tried", knowing their bid isn't good enough?

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Apologies, but no worries either way, because in the end, this isn't just about the Sox or the Mets. (I still think he winds up on the Dodgers until proven otherwise.)

But as to concerns about the Sox spending, that perception is out there. It's been on this board going back to when Mookie was dealt. There's an article on the BBC about similar concerns about FSG among Liverpool fans, which now seems ill-timed given Liverpool is currently top of the table:

Glory and fury - Liverpool, Boston and a tale of two teams - BBC Sport

The Sox have actually been ripped for the past 2 trade deadlines for not selling off more players because they thought they could still contend.

And I've been supportive of that, but they've also been ripped by players on the team for not adding at the deadline.

Look, I hope he comes here. But if he doesn't, I'm not going to waste any time wondering why he didn't, because there's more than a few reasons why he might decide to go elsewhere even if the Sox offer is competitive, or even the best one he receives.

Sure I agree with all that.
This guy is going to make his choice from multiple huge offers based on things that none of us can know and we may never know, despite what he eventually says in interviews. I'm glad we at least are supposedly making a big offer at least and I really hope we get him, but am preparing for it not happening.

On another topic, does anyone think we need a new thread just for the new "Red Sox offer $300 million to Yamamoto" rumor? The Yamamoto chase is bigger than all the other Red Sox offseason rumors combined IMO. Or should it be kept in this thread because a bunch of people have already posted about it?

 

[Sille Skrub]

Yep. New threads are always better.

Breaking out…

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Incentives? Yamamoto‘s agent must have laughed.

 

[soxhop411]

Incentives? Yamamoto‘s agent must have laughed.

What are you talking about?
Incentives are standard in pretty much all sports contracts. Such as winning a CY Young etc.

 

[E5 Yaz]

What are you talking about?
Incentives are standard in pretty much all sports contracts. Such as winning a CY Young etc.

It all depends on whether the incentives would bring it over $300M, or whether it's over $300M before incentives. It doesn't appear he's signing anything below 300 w/o incentives at this point

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Yep. New threads are always better.

Breaking out…

L'Chaim! Thanks for breaking it out.

 

[deythur]

Just checking but has there been any mention of how many years those 300mm offers are for. I know we assume 10 but has anything been stated as such?
Id be fine with 300mm for 9 or even 8 years.

 

[joe dokes]

Too soon

I’m getting really uncomfortable with how high this bidding is going. The recent leaks about BOS bids sounds an awful lot like the “we tried our best” leaks that we’ve heard in the past. In this instance, I may be okay with that. It’s not the dollars that get me. It’s the years. Yes, he’s 25. But the mileage on that arm, presumably, combined with his build has me concerned that he’s done by his early 30’s. Still worth it? I’m not sure.

I am *almost* at the point where I accept without reservation the fact that getting *any* so-called top tier FA is going to require several likely shitty years on the back end. Its just a cost of doing business.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

I’m assuming I’m not the only one whose heart skipped a beat for a moment at the sight of a broken out thread … until I saw I saw the word “offer”?

Just decide already, Mr. MountainBook!

 

[GPO Man]

I’m predicting it will take $350 million to get him.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I’m assuming I’m not the only one whose heart skipped a beat for a moment at the sight of a broken out thread … until I saw I saw the word “offer”?

Just decide already, Mr. MountainBook!

Every fucking time I read it, it happens to me again and again.

 

[koufax32]

These 2 sentences seem contradictory. The bidding seems really high but you also think the Sox are bidding just so they can say "we tried", knowing their bid isn't good enough?

I think they’re trying but realize they’re probably going to get outbid because they won’t be comfortable going as high as the final numbers will be.

My own personal opinion, presumably not also shared by the team if the reports are accurate, is that the bidding is already into the uncomfortably high range.

More concretely, 10 years/$300m makes me uncomfortable. If my read is right, 10 years/$350 is probably where the Sox FO taps out. Apologies if I didn’t communicate that properly.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I’m predicting it will take $350 million to get him.

For the Red Sox, I agree with this.

If the NYY report of $304m is correct, and we assume LAD is in the $300m range, I think the Sox would need to go $350m to get him to choose Boston over one of those teams.

Maybe if NYY and LAD are only offering exact terms, I could see Boston MAYBE having a shot with a 10yr/$310m offer where they offer an opt out after 5 yrs and front load the deal where YY gets $200m for the first 5 years, allowing him the option to cash out at age 30 with $200m and a chance to get what at that time - call it 10/$250m if he’s as good as we all think.

At my core - I think this is an LAD vs NYY decision because I think something other than money will play some factor. But I’m just trying to reconcile how the Sox think they have any chance at all, and maybe it’s offering something like that.

But I’m still advocating trying to see with Boras if JM would sign at 7/$175m right now, which is what I think it takes for him to choose Boston. (Heyman said Rodon was a comp, meaning he hasn’t been offered the Rodon deal yet - that offers JM $13m more.)

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Aren’t the rumors that Montgomery was looking for 8 years? Imagine that 8/200 could get it done. But, who knows, Boras may simply be waiting for YY and seeing what desperate big market clubs are left.

 

[GPO Man]

Aren’t the rumors that Montgomery was looking for 8 years? Imagine that 8/200 could get it done. But, who knows, Boras may simply be waiting for YY and seeing what desperate big market clubs are left.

I would pass on that.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Aren’t the rumors that Montgomery was looking for 8 years? Imagine that 8/200 could get it done. But, who knows, Boras may simply be waiting for YY and seeing what desperate big market clubs are left.

Possibly. But if Heyman is a Boras mouthpiece (which he is) and he says JM is looking at Carlos Rodon as a comp, that Boras doesn’t have that offer in hand. If he did, Heyman would be saying “he’s looking at Aaron Nola as a comp.”

Which is why I think he’d sign at 6(or 7) and $175m right now. That would make him the 5th highest paid pitcher in baseball history and top Rodon (and Nola’s) deal. I think he’d take that without waiting on Yamamoto to sign.

It’s obv an overpay, but that is where the Sox are, at least in my opinion.

 

[Rasputin]

I don’t know anything about Yamamoto’s personality, but I can’t see how someone could entertain a sincere pitch from fellow countryman and all-universe megastar Shohei Ohtani to join his superteam and then opt to pitch for his rival for the next 10 years.

Maybe he wants to be THE stud on a team. He can do that with a lot of teams but not one with Ohtani.