Not our Star Blazer: Yamamoto signs with the Dodgers for $325 million, 12 years

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'm old enough to remember when Theo dared let slip the phrase "bridge year" prior to the 2010 season (which turned out to be an entertaining and solid team derailed by unfortunate injuries). Coincidentally or not, that was followed the next off-season by the biggest cash outlay in team history to date and proclamations by the press that he'd built the "greatest team of all time". That sure went well.

So I don't blame any Boston GM or CBO for not wanting to admit to a rebuild, even for a season. I also don't think that going on a spending spree to win the off-season is necessary to being "committed to winning" or whatever we want to call it. One free agent signing isn't going to change the world. Nor is missing out on him. Though I do think it makes a ton of sense to wait until something actually happens before (over)reacting to it.

 

[grepal]

I'm going to be incredibly disappointed if he signs elsewhere. I'm preparing for that being the most likely outcome, however.

Would you be ok if the Sox landed Montgomery and Stroman or Snell

 

[manny]

Red Sox put themselves into a corner a bit with Wener's "full throttle" comment. I have already seen journalists that seem to be chomping at the bit to destroy the Sox if they have a relatively quiet off-season. Sure, you can be "full throttle" and miss out on a single FA (YY) because he goes somewhere else. But if they miss out on YY, Montgomery, and Snell, I think the pitchforks will be out. I don't think missing out on those three necessarily preclude the Sox from contending next season (obviously depending on what is done instead) but the Sox definitely led fans to believe that they would be big spenders this off-season.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Forget them. What about Lebron?

You’re joking (I think), but this came to mind for me too. There aren’t a ton of folks who could show up in a meeting (or even just a text chain) and really make a difference, but Lebron is one and he is on the FSG payroll. I’d love John Henry to call in that favor.

Edit: Yes, I know Lebron is a MFY fan. Tough beans. He cashes checks from FSG.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Would sox fans rather have both Montgomery & Snell or Yamamoto and a different starter like Paxton. I think Monty & Snell is a helluva duo if they can be had for similar money and shorter terms than what YY might get.

 

[bsj]

Would sox fans rather have both Montgomery & Snell or Yamamoto and a different starter like Paxton. I think Monty & Snell is a helluva duo if they can be had for similar money and shorter terms than what YY might get.

Yamamoto and the different starter like Paxton.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Would sox fans rather have both Montgomery & Snell or Yamamoto and a different starter like Paxton. I think Monty & Snell is a helluva duo if they can be had for similar money and shorter terms than what YY might get.

Personally I would prefer to lock in the perceived ace (perceived until proven otherwise) as it allows you a stronger sense of where the team stands and what you need to build around. Also, every "top FA pitcher remaining" like Monty and Snell will be is going to squeeze every last dime they can while a Paxton type may only have the luxury of taking an offer from the first team to offer 8 figures.

I would not be heartbroken with your alternative, but I think the prevailing fear if YY goes elsewhere is that the Sox will end up with two Paxtons and a Rich Hill instead.

 

[phineas gage]

From a recent Yahoo sports article--the spending rank of the last 10 WS champions ($100 million players in parentheses)

• 2023 Rangers: 8th (Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Max Scherzer, plus an injured Jacob deGrom)
• 2022 Astros: 9th (Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman)
• 2021 Braves: 13th (Freddie Freeman, plus an injured Ronald Acuña Jr.)
• 2020 Dodgers: 5th (Mookie Betts, plus David Price, who opted out due to COVID-19)
• 2019 Nationals: 6th (Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, Patrick Corbin)
• 2018 Red Sox: 1st (David Price, J.D. Martinez, plus an injured Dustin Pedroia)
• 2017 Astros: 19th (Justin Verlander, acquired at the trade deadline)
• 2016 Cubs: 4th (Jason Heyward, Jon Lester)
• 2015 Royals: 11th (none)
• 2014 Giants: 7th (Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner)

I think it shows that a team doesn't have to 'win the offseason' (since there are never any guarantees), but a team does have to be willing to spend at a competitive and substantive level. And I think the Red Sox have clearly signaled they will.
Losing Texeira and ARod to the Yankees caused a lot of angst at the time, but did not prevent a high level of Red Sox success going forward. Losing another bauble to the Yankees, although it sucks in the moment, may similarly have little long-term effect.

 

[manny]

Would sox fans rather have both Montgomery & Snell or Yamamoto and a different starter like Paxton. I think Monty & Snell is a helluva duo if they can be had for similar money and shorter terms than what YY might get.

YY and different starter. Monty & Snell may be the better bet for next year but I think locking down a 25 year old ace for 10+ years is the ideal move, and then you can supplement the rotation in the next few years.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Red Sox put themselves into a corner a bit with Wener's "full throttle" comment. I have already seen journalists that seem to be chomping at the bit to destroy the Sox if they have a relatively quiet off-season. Sure, you can be "full throttle" and miss out on a single FA (YY) because he goes somewhere else. But if they miss out on YY, Montgomery, and Snell, I think the pitchforks will be out. I don't think missing out on those three necessarily preclude the Sox from contending next season (obviously depending on what is done instead) but the Sox definitely led fans to believe that they would be big spenders this off-season.

Yeah Werner has a tendency to do this, mostly because Henry is so awkward when he does choose to speak. He really put the pressure on the new guy (Breslow) with the full throttle comment.

I could see a scenario where they lose out on YY, JM, and Snell, but do sign Imanaga, Stroman or Giolito, then re-sign Duvall (he seemed to like it here and put up quite good numbers in an injury shortened season) then move Houck or Crawford, Yorke, and throw in Dalbec for a controllable pitcher or 2B upgrade and claim it a successful off season.

 

[bosox1534]

Yeah Werner has a tendency to do this, mostly because Henry is so awkward when he does choose to speak. He really put the pressure on the new guy (Breslow) with the full throttle comment.

I could see a scenario where they lose out on YY, JM, and Snell, but do sign Imanaga, Stroman or Giolito, then re-sign Duvall (he seemed to like it here and put up quite good numbers in an injury shortened season) then move Houck or Crawford, Yorke, and throw in Dalbec for a controllable pitcher or 2B upgrade and claim it a successful off season.

I actually think this would be a successful offseason.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Would sox fans rather have both Montgomery & Snell or Yamamoto and a different starter like Paxton. I think Monty & Snell is a helluva duo if they can be had for similar money and shorter terms than what YY might get.

A) I don't think the Sox have any chance of landing both Montgomery and Snell but;
B) I'd rather have them both than Yamamoto and "Paxton."

I think the Red Sox pitching is pretty bad at the MLB level and disgraceful at AAA and AA (meaning you don't have enough SP depth of actual prospects to bank on someone being good through the attrition). So I'd rather have those two. I think, top to bottom, you're a much better team with something like Snell, Bello, Montgomery, Crawford, Pivetta as opposed to Yamamoto, Bello, Crawford, Pivetta, Sale.

But, I don't think there is any chance of both Snell and Motgomery happening, I'm just hoping Henry shells out the money needed to land one.

 

[joe dokes]

I would not be heartbroken with your alternative, but I think the prevailing fear if YY goes elsewhere is that the Sox will end up with two Paxtons and a Rich Hill instead.

And one of the Paxtons might be Bill.

Give me YY and let the rest of the chips fall. Something new and different.

 

[YTF]

You’re joking (I think), but this came to mind for me too. There aren’t a ton of folks who could show up in a meeting (or even just a text chain) and really make a difference, but Lebron is one and he is on the FSG payroll. I’d love John Henry to call in that favor.

Edit: Yes, I know Lebron is a MFY fan. Tough beans. He cashes checks from FSG.

Shit Mugsy, I'd take a step further. Lebron should be on the phone with Henry offering to make the pitch, not that I have any idea that he hasn't. Lebron is also a fan of $$$, I assume that's part of the reason he's involved with FSG. This is a real opportunity for him to make an impact on the investment that he's made.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

You’re joking (I think), but this came to mind for me too. There aren’t a ton of folks who could show up in a meeting (or even just a text chain) and really make a difference, but Lebron is one and he is on the FSG payroll. I’d love John Henry to call in that favor.

Edit: Yes, I know Lebron is a MFY fan. Tough beans. He cashes checks from FSG.

I was joking. Though if the Sox brass did meet face to face with Yamamoto and his team in Los Angeles, it might not have been too difficult to get Lebron involved if the Lakers happened to be home at the time. Maybe have him show off that fancy In-Season Tournament Champions banner to really impress YY.

 

[SoxinSeattle]

I keep coming back to the visits. He met with three teams on home turf. The odds of him signing elsewhere seem slim.

 

[cantor44]

Losing Texeira and ARod to the Yankees caused a lot of angst at the time, but did not prevent a high level of Red Sox success going forward. Losing another bauble to the Yankees, although it sucks in the moment, may similarly have little long-term effect.

Yes, this is very true, but in short order the Sox got Schilling and Foulke, and already had the best pitcher the best RHH in the game.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

I keep coming back to the visits. He met with three teams on home turf. The odds of him signing elsewhere seem slim.

You don't know that the Sox didn't meet him in NY. There's easily a version of events where YY saw Philly, Boston, NYY/M all in NY and that makes more sense than him traveling to 3 different cities. We also don't really know that he didn't go to Philly or Boston.

 

[cantor44]

YY and different starter. Monty & Snell may be the better bet for next year but I think locking down a 25 year old ace for 10+ years is the ideal move, and then you can supplement the rotation in the next few years.

I really don't think the Sox will get YY. I've never really thought so. If they sign Monty and Snell, I'd be generally pleased with those acquisitions. Both potential all-star caliber starters. It would be a big improvement.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Would sox fans rather have both Montgomery & Snell or Yamamoto and a different starter like Paxton. I think Monty & Snell is a helluva duo if they can be had for similar money and shorter terms than what YY might get.

Snell and Montgomery would make the team significantly better in 24-26 than just Yamamoto.

There is a chance, and not a small one, Yamamoto is never as good of a pitcher as Blake Snell and people just aren't accepting that fact because he has no major league numbers to back it up. I think the chance of them signing both is slim to ton. Too many teams need a starter.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Would sox fans rather have both Montgomery & Snell or Yamamoto and a different starter like Paxton. I think Monty & Snell is a helluva duo if they can be had for similar money and shorter terms than what YY might get.

If it's the same AAV, and shorter contract, I'd take Monty and Snell unless "like" is doing very heavy lifting in the "like Paxton" question.

If the Monty and Snell contracts are no frills -- just five year deals with no opt out for the same AAV as Paxton and YY would cost? Sign me up. That's a pretty nice base for a rotation and you're buying MLB proven talent that should be good for 10 wins.

To me, free agency dollars are about building your base where you're paying top dollar for wins so you have a foundation you can build on. Then you cross the finish line by having enough cost controlled guys to also get you wins. Would it be nice to get a 9 win player for $30 million? Yeah, of course. But where you get clobbered is where you try to get a 9 win player for $30 million but end up getting a 1 win player for $30 million. If we can use our free agency dollars to build a foundation of solid run producing or run saving players, that's what I want. Snell and Monty would be a heck of a base. YY could be transcendent. The Mike Trout of pitching. But he also could be overrated and have trouble adjusting. Give me the solid foundation.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Yamamoto met with the Giants last week, but it was not at his agent’s offices in LA. But per Andrew Baggarly’s mailbag from The Athletic, he actually flew to SF to meet with him. So that’s 3 teams that he’s met with on their turf, none of which are the Red Sox. However, the Sox are saying nothing

https://theathletic.com/5147340/2023/12/19/sf-giants-yamamoto-outfield-depth/

 

[tims4wins]

You don't know that the Sox didn't meet him in NY. There's easily a version of events where YY saw Philly, Boston, NYY/M all in NY and that makes more sense than him traveling to 3 different cities. We also don't really know that he didn't go to Philly or Boston.

I mean, if I were a 25 year old coming from another country and getting ready to sign a 10+ year contract, I think I'd visit the cities I was considering.

 

[RedOctober3829]

This is such an interesting point. As the most casual of football fans, i was actually going to ask the board whether this is just a Sox phenomenon, or whether it's more a Boston thing. And the way I was hoping to get at that was to ask whether Pats fans have turned on that organization as well. Your post makes clear they have.

It's crazy. Yamamoto hasn't made any decisions. We have no idea what he will or won't do. And a segment SOSH is already thrown into despair about the outcome. For Christ's sake, every one of his suitors except for one isn't going to get him. Only in Boston does that become an existential crisis. The unknown preferences of some 25 year old kid who's never thrown a pitch in major league baseball is somehow dredging up decades of angst and despair. You'd think four championships in twenty years would heal these wounds. But this is Boston.

Championships are one thing and yes I want the Sox to compete for them. But, is it too much to ask to stay out of the basement of the AL East? It’s the easiest it’s ever been to be a playoff contender and I’d argue since they won it in 2018 they have only done so once since then. That’s not acceptable.

 

[RedOctober3829]

View: https://twitter.com/bobklap/status/1737221542524690887?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q

 

[DJnVa]

From a recent Yahoo sports article--the spending rank of the last 10 WS champions ($100 million players in parentheses)

• 2023 Rangers: 8th (Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Max Scherzer, plus an injured Jacob deGrom)
• 2022 Astros: 9th (Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman)
• 2021 Braves: 13th (Freddie Freeman, plus an injured Ronald Acuña Jr.)
• 2020 Dodgers: 5th (Mookie Betts, plus David Price, who opted out due to COVID-19)
• 2019 Nationals: 6th (Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, Patrick Corbin)
• 2018 Red Sox: 1st (David Price, J.D. Martinez, plus an injured Dustin Pedroia)
• 2017 Astros: 19th (Justin Verlander, acquired at the trade deadline)
• 2016 Cubs: 4th (Jason Heyward, Jon Lester)
• 2015 Royals: 11th (none)
• 2014 Giants: 7th (Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner)

I think it shows that a team doesn't have to 'win the offseason' (since there are never any guarantees), but a team does have to be willing to spend at a competitive and substantive level. And I think the Red Sox have clearly signaled they will.
Losing Texeira and ARod to the Yankees caused a lot of angst at the time, but did not prevent a high level of Red Sox success going forward. Losing another bauble to the Yankees, although it sucks in the moment, may similarly have little long-term effect.

I think the idea is that teams that spend more should always be in the hunt, not that spending the most leads directly to winning, since the postseason is a crapshoot.

 

[Max Power]

Great. This thread needs to be added to every 5 minutes for the next two weeks without anyone having any real information.

 

[allmanbro]

View: https://twitter.com/bobklap/status/1737221542524690887?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q

Boston Common for Christmas and then down to Times Square for New Years?

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Great. This thread needs to be added to every 5 minutes for the next two weeks without anyone having any real information.

This post should be pinned at the top of every thread here forevermore!

 

[nvalvo]

I'm old enough to remember when Theo dared let slip the phrase "bridge year" prior to the 2010 season (which turned out to be an entertaining and solid team derailed by unfortunate injuries). Coincidentally or not, that was followed the next off-season by the biggest cash outlay in team history to date and proclamations by the press that he'd built the "greatest team of all time". That sure went well.

So I don't blame any Boston GM or CBO for not wanting to admit to a rebuild, even for a season. I also don't think that going on a spending spree to win the off-season is necessary to being "committed to winning" or whatever we want to call it. One free agent signing isn't going to change the world. Nor is missing out on him. Though I do think it makes a ton of sense to wait until something actually happens before (over)reacting to it.

I was just going to bring up the dreaded “bridge year.”

But why are we even talking about a rebuild? This team has a decent core and something like four top-100 prospects in the high minors. We need a couple starting pitchers, yes, but we have money and prospects to get them. This is not a team that needs a major overhaul.

No guarantees in this division, but we’re a couple moves away from being dangerous.

Yamamoto-plus would be the most straightforward way to do that, so they’re offering him hundreds of millions of dollars. But if he chooses another team, there are other ways to augment the rotation: other FA signings, trades with the Brewers, Marlins, or Mariners, etc.

 

[simplicio]

Great. This thread needs to be added to every 5 minutes for the next two weeks without anyone having any real information.

This thread needs The Final Countdown embedded and autoplaying on a loop any time someone opens it, until he signs.

 

[moondog80]

View: https://twitter.com/bobklap/status/1737221542524690887?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q

2024 or 2025?

 

[Rovin Romine]

Yes, as Lucchino understood, fans have the right to feel however they feel.

I kind of miss the days when we could mock and shame men for having feelings. It was a better world in some ways.

 

[phineas gage]

If YY actually does not decide until the first week of January or later, will the other premium free agents--particularly pitchers--keep waiting for him to sign and determine the market? At some point they've got to make a decision, as do all the competing teams.

If the Red Sox have a fairly clear idea that their chances of landing YY are not good, they should go hard after the alternatives and not wait.

 

[Scoots McBoots]

Boston Common for Christmas and then down to Times Square for New Years?

Get the duck boats ready!

 

[BringBackMo]

I was just going to bring up the dreaded “bridge year.”

But why are we even talking about a rebuild? This team has a decent core and something like four top-100 prospects in the high minors. We need a couple starting pitchers, yes, but we have money and prospects to get them. This is not a team that needs a major overhaul.

No guarantees in this division, but we’re a couple moves away from being dangerous.

Yamamoto-plus would be the most straightforward way to do that, so they’re offering him hundreds of millions of dollars. But if he chooses another team, there are other ways to augment the rotation: other FA signings, trades with the Brewers, Marlins, or Mariners, etc.

You need to pay more attention to this thread. The organization is in very bad shape all the way down through AA. We have no good players. We've lost our prestige. No one wants to sign here. And Yamamoto is about to finish us off by rejecting us and all our wretchedness. There are even whispers of demotion. It's significantly doomsier than you realize.

 

[tims4wins]

Might be good for all our mental health to just push the pause button on this thread for about a week.

 

[BringBackMo]

I kind of miss the days when we could mock and shame men for having feelings. It was a better world in some ways.

Mister, we could us a man like Herbert Hoover again.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Would sox fans rather have both Montgomery & Snell or Yamamoto and a different starter like Paxton. I think Monty & Snell is a helluva duo if they can be had for similar money and shorter terms than what YY might get.

You'll get different answers, of course, but personally I'm about results over name recognition or individual record setters. I mean those are nice, especially when you're out of contention, but give me a 2013 type team over a 2018 type team any day. YY is something of an unknown, so he'd be especially fun to watch and root for, but I'd probably enjoy just about anyone putting in an excellent season as a starter.

 

[NickEsasky]

You'll get different answers, of course, but personally I'm about results over name recognition or individual record setters. I mean those are nice, especially when you're out of contention, but give me a 2013 type team over a 2018 type team any day. YY is something of an unknown, so he'd be especially fun to watch and root for, but I'd probably enjoy just about anyone putting in an excellent season as a starter.

Curious as to why? Both won a WS. One was a group of scrappy and unexpected champions which I can see as a draw, but the 2018 team was awesome. Who doesn't like to watch the best team in baseball do their thing all year AND survive the playoff gauntlet?

 

[E5 Yaz]

Waiting another couple of weeks probably frustrates the baseball media and fanbases, but I can't believe it matters much to players, agents or teams

 

[BringBackMo]

Would sox fans rather have both Montgomery & Snell or Yamamoto and a different starter like Paxton. I think Monty & Snell is a helluva duo if they can be had for similar money and shorter terms than what YY might get.

This is a great post/question. Others have made the quite reasonable observation that it may be tough to sign two of the premiere free agent pitchers. But the plan could also be to sign one and trade for another.

Picking up on the spirit of your question, my own answer is that I don't have a preference. I think the Sox will go for one approach--clearly they want to sign Yamamoto--but are prepared to shift gears and take a different approach if that doesn't work out. I think there's plenty of value to be found in many different combinations of acquisitions, and the only thing I care about is that they hit on one of them. I believe that they're confident they will. Time will tell if that confidence is warranted.

 

[BringBackMo]

Waiting another couple of weeks probably frustrates the baseball media and fanbases, but I can't believe it matters much to players, agents or teams

+1

 

[Rovin Romine]

Curious as to why? Both won a WS. One was a group of scrappy and unexpected champions which I can see as a draw, but the 2018 team was awesome. Who doesn't like to watch the best team in baseball do their thing all year AND survive the playoff gauntlet?

Drama.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

If YY actually does not decide until the first week of January or later, will the other premium free agents--particularly pitchers--keep waiting for him to sign and determine the market? At some point they've got to make a decision, as do all the competing teams.

If the Red Sox have a fairly clear idea that their chances of landing YY are not good, they should go hard after the alternatives and not wait.

Agreed. The price of everyone is going to go up after the diva decides who gets to pay him; try to minimize the damage by making aggressive AAV offers with shorter years that will make Snell, Montgomery, etc. think twice about waiting.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Agreed. The price of everyone is going to go up after the diva decides who gets to pay him; try to minimize the damage by making aggressive AAV offers with shorter years that will make Snell, Montgomery, etc. think twice about waiting.

I don’t see how that would work, the team doesn’t have any leverage. Would they make an offer that’s only good for a certain time? I just don’t see what the incentive would be for the player to sign now unless they think it’s way more than they will get if they wait…and if so, why is the team making that offer?

I know we want things to happen but spring training doesn’t start for quite a while. Players aren’t going to feel any urgency for like several more weeks.

 

[sezwho]

I don’t see how that would work, the team doesn’t have any leverage. Would they make an offer that’s only good for a certain time? I just don’t see what the incentive would be for the player to sign now unless they think it’s way more than they will get if they wait…and if so, why is the team making that offer?

I know we want things to happen but spring training doesn’t start for quite a while. Players aren’t going to feel any urgency for like several more weeks.

Depends what you want to spend. The Sox, and time will tell how wisely, put a fat stack down for Masa and I’m sure there was a clock on it. Can’t keep that much FA money tied up as Eovaldi learned.

Fwiw that delay is all about code for another round of bidding.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Fwiw that delay is all about code for another round of bidding.

"another (pre-planned) round of bidding" in this process stage-managed by YY's camp. The only real deadline is January 4th.

 

[nvalvo]

The more this comes to actually resemble an auction, the better our chances are IMO.

 

[Fisks Of Fury]

Mister, we could us a man like Herbert Hoover again.

Stifle yourself.