NY minor league prospect news (2024 edition)

[jon abbey]

Gonna kick off a new thread with the new Fangraphs NY prospect list posted today, a fascinating list I need to dig into more.

Fangraphs hasn't been updating prospect lists much recently, I believe this is the first new one in a year. Generally anyone rated as a 50 or above is in their top 100 (give or take) but since this is only the 2nd of 30 lists so far, it's hard to tell exactly.

But NY's previous list only had one 50 (maybe they took off guys who graduated though?), this one has six (so likely six top 100 prospects according to them):

Spencer Jones 55
Austin Wells 50
Jasson Dominguez 50
Roderick Arias 50
Chase Hampton 50
Will Warren 50

Also they have three teenagers ranked at 14-16 (so ahead of Everson Pereira, Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter, etc.) who I have never heard of, that's exciting too.

Some quotes that jump out on a first quick scan:

Spencer Jones: "Jones has enormous potential, with eventual 40-homer power in the tank, and I think over time he’s going to be able to shorten up and still get to enormous pop."

Will Warren: "Warren does a little bit of everything. His pitch mix compares closely to Joe Musgrove’s (his command isn’t quite that great) and, similarly, Warren profiles as a big league ready, mid-rotation starter."

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/new-york-yankees-top-36-prospects-2024/

 

[jarules1185]

I assume Thorpe hasn't/hadn't been rated yet, but it sounds like he's going to be a 50. Sounds like they would have had him right above Will Warren.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

BA graded Pereira a 55 high risk. FG gave him a 40. Interesting.

FYI, FG did Toronto a week or so ago.

 

[Wingack]

Really starting to get very hyped about Jones. Hopefully he can keep the K's under control.

 

[jon abbey]

BA graded Pereira a 55 high risk. FG gave him a 40. Interesting.

FYI, FG did Toronto a week or so ago.

Yes, I meant the first new NY list they've done in a year, sorry.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

Seeing how much the Soto trade cleared out NY's upper level starting depth makes the Yamamoto pursuit all the more sensible, there's not much coming down the pipe besides Warren and Hampton unless Beeter and Gil and Yoendrys Gomez take a big step forward. Plus Cole is 33 and Rodon is 31, Cortes and Schmidt are both on the right side of 30 but not for much longer and more in the mid/back rotation bucket than viable No. 1 options, whereas Yamamoto would instantly become the Cole successor/insurance.

ETA: Looking at FG's roster depth charts, they have Beeter as the no. 5 right now, which won't be the case because NY will sign someone even if not Yamamoto, but yeah, all the more incentive to go after Yamamoto.

 

[jon abbey]

Seeing how much the Soto trade cleared out NY's upper level starting depth makes the Yamamoto pursuit all the more sensible, there's not much coming down the pipe besides Warren and Hampton unless Beeter and Gil and Yoendrys Gomez take a big step forward. Plus Cole is 33 and Rodon is 31, Cortes and Schmidt are both on the right side of 30 but not for much longer and more in the mid/back rotation bucket than viable No. 1 options, whereas Yamamoto would instantly become the Cole successor/insurance.

This is all true, although I'd add that under Matt Blake, SPs have been flying up the system. Warren and Fitts were 2021 draft picks, Thorpe and Hampton were 2022 draft picks, so I expect a few 2023 draft picks to follow in their footsteps, Kyle Carr is the most likely. Last year at this time, it looked like the upper levels were pretty empty of quality SP prospects, then by August the AA rotation was stacked.

But yeah, I don't think they trade Michael King unless they planned to add at least one SP, obviously Yamamoto is the main target as he is for everyone.

 

[BigMike]

It is possible Jones has a higher ceiling than Dominguez, I honestly can't see rating him ahead of Jasson as a prospect.

JD is 2 years younger, has already reached and had a flash of success in the majors. He also has put up better numbers in the minors. And JD ceiling is super high as well

 

[jon abbey]

It is possible Jones has a higher ceiling than Dominguez, I honestly can't see rating him ahead of Jasson as a prospect.

JD is 2 years younger, has already reached and had a flash of success in the majors. He also has put up better numbers in the minors. And JD ceiling is super high as well

Yeah IMO Dominguez somehow still doesn't get enough respect from the prospect community, all he did was homer on the first pitch he saw in MLB at 20 years old, off Justin Verlander, to the opposite field. That seems good.

Both Jones (gigantic) and Dominguez (super muscular at a very young age) have unusual body types, which I think makes it harder to project them. I'm just glad Cashman has held onto both.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

When I look at that list, I am not upset at all about the prospect depth we have. Mayea, Dominguez, Spencer, Wells. Volpe and Peraza promoted. They won't all hit, but this is why I think the Yankees are spending what they are at the moment, because they think they're going to have a lot of much cheaper talent in the coming years.

 

[billy ashley]

Yeah IMO Dominguez somehow still doesn't get enough respect from the prospect community, all he did was homer on the first pitch he saw in MLB at 20 years old, off Justin Verlander, to the opposite field. That seems good.

Both Jones (gigantic) and Dominguez (super muscular at a very young age) have unusual body types, which I think makes it harder to project them. I'm just glad Cashman has held onto both.

I think some may be down on Dominguez because he was insanely overhyped as a teenager due to his freakish athleticism, but (at the time time) unrefined skillset. His first couple of years in the minors reflected that he was very much raw. Whereas a prospect without all the early hype would probably have been more fairly evaluated as a promising but flawed prospect, I think a lot of people were happy to dump on him for being a failure.

I think a lot of these folks didn't observe the positive movement in his K rate (before it plateaued in the low 20s), or his continual solid power numbers against competing much older than him.

A lot of the folks who dismissed him early on are likely being too influenced by the earlier assessments... forgetting obviously that prospects change over time.

I'm still skeptical Dominguez will ever be much of a hitter for average, but he has enough 55 and 60 scores across the board that he doesn't have to hit that much better than .220 to be a viable centerfielder. If a decade from now, he's midway through a career similar to Mike Cameron (in terms of offense*), I wouldn't be surprised.

*Not a burn on his defense, just, Mike Cameron was special, whereas Dominguez merely appears to be good/plus.

 

[jon abbey]

BP top 10 just dropped, pretty interesting. I don’t subscribe so this is all I can see:

================

The State of the System: This is a bat-heavy system for the first time in a while, but the Yankees continue to develop arms at will. It may not be obvious in this writing since they just traded many of them for a superstar, which is how this is supposed to go.

The Top Ten:

1. Spencer Jones, OF
2. Jasson Dominguez, OF
3. Chase Hampton, RHP
4. Henry Lalane, LHP
5. Austin Wells, C
6. Will Warren, RHP
7. Agustin Ramirez, C
8. Ben Rice, C
9. Enmanuel Tejeda, IF
10. George Lombard Jr., SS

 

[6-5 Sadler]

I know it was mentioned above but I don’t really get the Spencer Jones hype compared to Dominguez. Dominguez has performed much better at higher levels at a younger age. They both come with similar questions about ability to stay in center field.

Jones performance at A+ this year was…fine. But for comparison, at the same level and a year and half younger Blaze Jordan (chosen mostly as a name people will be familiar with…obviously Blaze is a lesser prospect as a 1b only guy) walked the same amount, struck out half the time, and hit for more power.

I know you can’t scout the box score but these rankings seem to be weighing projection very heavily in their evaluations and possibly discounting floor. Is this just a pure ceiling thing (or possibly the Yankees made this profile work once in Judge and they can do it again)?

 

[jon abbey]

I'm not a prospect evaluator but I think besides the obvious, people love Jones' speed (home to third time of 11.00 below, fastest in MLB last year was Cody Carroll at 10.97). I'd put Dominguez higher also, dude looked like he belonged already in his brief MLB stint, but as a NY fan I think it's very exciting that some people think Jones will be better.

View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1651569538742329346

 

[jon abbey]

Here is 11-20, pretty crazy to have Arias all the way down at #12, think that will look kind of silly by June if not sooner.

11. Brando Mayea, CF
12. Roderick Arias, SS
13. Everson Pereira, OF
14. Sabier Marte, RHP
15. Kyle Carr, LHP
16. Jorbit Vivas, 2B
17. Keiner Delgado, INF
18. Brock Selvidge, LHP
19. Engelth Urena, C
20. Jordarlin Mendoza, RHP

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Mayea, Arias, and Pereira is quite an 11-13. I would think Pereira gets traded sooner than later.

 

[BigMike]

My Guy Keiner Delgado makes an appearance at 17. Don't know why I like the kid, must be the size element

 

[jon abbey]

I know it was mentioned above but I don’t really get the Spencer Jones hype compared to Dominguez. Dominguez has performed much better at higher levels at a younger age. They both come with similar questions about ability to stay in center field.

Jones performance at A+ this year was…fine. But for comparison, at the same level and a year and half younger Blaze Jordan (chosen mostly as a name people will be familiar with…obviously Blaze is a lesser prospect as a 1b only guy) walked the same amount, struck out half the time, and hit for more power.

I know you can’t scout the box score but these rankings seem to be weighing projection very heavily in their evaluations and possibly discounting floor. Is this just a pure ceiling thing (or possibly the Yankees made this profile work once in Judge and they can do it again)?

The BP guys went into this some on Twitter, evidently Jones' average EV would have ranked 4th in MLB last year (!!!!).

View: https://twitter.com/SmithBrickner/status/1742606831053078625

 

[6-5 Sadler]

Thanks, Jon. That whole twitter thread is worth a read as the BP guy addresses a lot of the questions I raised above. I think it boils down to higher ceiling based on the elite exit velos, less in-game experience as a hitter (so more room to develop), and higher likelihood to stay in center given his speed.