O-Line Talent & Draft Resources

[wutang112878]

Last nights debacle got me thinking about the O-line and how much of our resources we have used on it.  To my knowledge, I cant think of a free agent O-lineman that we brought in for any significant dollars, but we've hardly brought any FAs from the outside in at significant money. 
 
Our main talent pipeline is the draft, so I grabbed all the draft data during Bill's tenure and turned it into a pivot table.  The first table is Bill's entire draft history, and the 2nd is the history for the last 5 years.  I grabbed 2009 to 2013 because thats really the pipeline you would hope would really be helping this year because its tough to count on a rookie.  There are also counts by round and 'Value' based off of a draft value chart.
 
When it comes to the O-line, there are some consistent trends over Bill's history:
 
From a value perspective, we have used 13.3% of his 'Value' on O-lineman during his tenure, and in the past 5 years its been 14.1% with 90% of that coming from the Vollmer and Solder picks.  On the interior of the line he has used 4.5% of the 'Value' with the 2 picks being Mankins and Klemm (although he was really an T)
 
Looking at the data by round, over his history Bill used 6 out of 51 picks in rounds 1 - 3 on the O-line, and over the last 5 years 2 of 24 with those 2 being Vollmer and Solder.  With regards to the interior of the line the only pick we used in the top 4 rounds was on Ohrnberger and he was a 4th rounder.
 
My original hypothesis before I grabbed the data was that we werent using enough resources on the O-line, but it seems as though we are.  Overall we use much more resources on defense than offense but I think a huge part of that is because we have never had to use any real resources on a QB  So the question becomes, is this enough?  As far as I can tell we seem to be significant resources on the O-line. 
 
The two critiques that I might have is with Dante's departure and the line being a fatal flaw.  Bill knew it was coming, he was an elite coach and even Dante had problems getting the line to play well enough to win another title.  So should we have used more resources recently to offset his departure?  Based on what I'm seeing, I think the answer is yes in hindsight.  As for the fatal flaw, it seems as though most of our playoff departures have to do with the line.  The 2 Giant superbowls are prime examples and overall the Oline has had some real stinker games at times that really took away the teams chance to win.
 
I'm interested to hear the thoughts of others on this, because I think this brings up an interesting big picture issue with regards to how you decide to devote draft resources and spread them amongst various positions.
 

 

[wutang112878]

Tables:
 
[tablegrid= Bill's Entire Draft History ]Side Category   Qty Rd 1 Qty Rd 2 Qty Rd 3 Qty Rd 4 Qty Rd 5 Qty Rd 6 Qty Rd 7 Total Value % of Total Value Def D-Line NT  1             800 3.2% Def D-Line DE  3 1 1 1   3 2 4054.2 16.1% Def D-Line DT  1 1   2 1 2 3 1295.6 5.1% Def LB LB  2 3 2   2 3 5 3476.4 13.8% Def Secondary DB  2 5 5 4   5 4 4909.5 19.5% Def Secondary FS    1           420 1.7% Off QB  QB    1 2 1   2 2 714.8 2.8% Off RB  RB  1 1 2 2   1 1 1671.2 6.6% Off FB  FB        1     2 86 0.3% Off WR  WR    4 2 1 2   4 2036 8.1% Off TE  TE  2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2238.7 8.9% Off O-Line C          1 1   35.2 0.1% Off O-Line G  1 1   1   1 1 1090.4 4.3% Off O-Line OL  1     2 1 1   1126.8 4.5% Off O-Line T    2 1 2 3 1 1 1101.4 4.4% ST ST K        1     1 63 0.3% ST ST LS            1   12.2 0.0% ST ST P          1     31.4 0.1%                         Total     14 21 16 20 13 22 27     [/tablegrid]
 
[tablegrid= Last 5 Years (2009 - 2013) ]Side Category   Qty Rd 1 Qty Rd 2 Qty Rd 3 Qty Rd 4 Qty Rd 5 Qty Rd 6 Qty Rd 7 Total Value % of Total Value Def D-Line DE  1   1       2 944 9.5% Def D-Line DT    1       1 2 512.6 5.2% Def LB LB  1 3 1     1 1 1881.8 19.0% Def Secondary DB  1 3 2     1 2 2639.4 26.6% Def Secondary FS    1           420 4.2% Off QB  QB      1       1 222 2.2% Off RB  RB    1 1         565 5.7% Off WR  WR    1 2 1     2 721 7.3% Off TE  TE    1   1 1     575.8 5.8% Off O-Line C            1   9.4 0.1% Off O-Line G        1       49 0.5% Off O-Line OL  1       1     987 9.9% Off O-Line T    1     1   1 351.6 3.5% ST ST LS            1   12.2 0.1% ST ST P          1     31.4 0.3%                         Total     4 12 8 3 4 5 11     [/tablegrid]

 

[Rico Guapo]

I was thinking about this as well.
 
I believe you can coach up players, but at the end of the day you need raw talent as well.
 
2/24 picks in rounds 1 through 3 over the past five years, with no major free agent additions, and it's no wonder the OL has regressed.

 

[soxfan121]

wutang, clean out your inbox. This is really interesting stuff.

 

[Super Nomario]

This is interesting, but you really need to compare to league norms to draw a conclusion. Teams tend to invest picks in tackles but guards / centers are often late picks or UDFAs. How do the Patriots' picks compare to what other teams are doing?

 

[wutang112878]

wutang, clean out your inbox. This is really interesting stuff.

 
Sorry about that, I didnt even realize it was full.  Should be working now.
 
 

This is interesting, but you really need to compare to league norms to draw a conclusion. Teams tend to invest picks in tackles but guards / centers are often late picks or UDFAs. How do the Patriots' picks compare to what other teams are doing?

 
This was my next thought as well, and I went to go pull the data for the league as a whole during this timeperiod (because I already have the pivot table setup, so it kind of makes it easy to do) but you have to pull year by year and now unfortunately real work calls.  However, I am going to do this later today hopefully.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Tables & things

 
wutang gets 2 free passes to troll anyone on this forum. Good work & thanks.

 

[wutang112878]

Awesome!  Glad everyone seems to like this.  This kind of gets more intriguing the more I look at it because I'm starting to have a better appreciation for how difficult it is to be a GM.  My original hypothesis of 'they just need to throw more draft resources at it' just couldnt have been further off base.
 
Here are some updated tables. 
 
First is a look at the league as a whole from 2000 to 2013 and the % of resources.  So what % of 1st rounders were LBs, and what % of 'Total Value' across the draft was used on LBs.
 
[tablegrid= Whole League - 2000 - 2013 ]Side Category Pos  % of Rd 1 % of Rd 2 % of Rd 3 % of Rd 4 % of Rd 5 % of Rd 6 % of Rd 7 % of Value Def D-Line NT  0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Def D-Line DE  14% 11% 8% 9% 8% 8% 10% 13% Def D-Line DT  10% 6% 8% 7% 6% 7% 8% 9% Def LB LB  9% 15% 15% 13% 13% 11% 10% 11% Def Secondary DB  16% 22% 21% 19% 21% 17% 16% 16% Def Secondary SS 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Def Secondary FS  1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% Off QB  QB  8% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 5% 9% Off RB  RB  9% 8% 7% 9% 6% 9% 8% 8% Off FB  FB  0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 0% Off WR  WR  12% 14% 14% 12% 11% 12% 13% 13% Off TE  TE  4% 5% 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 4% Off O-Line C  1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 1% Off O-Line G  2% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 6% 3% Off O-Line OL  5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% Off O-Line T  8% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 8% ST ST K  0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% ST ST LS  0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ST ST P  0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% [/tablegrid]
 
 
 
Now here is the same data for the same time period for just the Pats:
 
 
 
[tablegrid= Patriots - 2000 - 2013 ]Side Category   % of Rd 1 % of Rd 2 % of Rd 3 % of Rd 4 % of Rd 5 % of Rd 6 % of Rd 7 % of Value Def D-Line NT  7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3.2% Def D-Line DE  21% 5% 6% 5% 0% 14% 7% 16.1% Def D-Line DT  7% 5% 0% 10% 8% 9% 11% 5.1% Def LB LB  14% 14% 13% 0% 15% 14% 19% 13.8% Def Secondary DB  14% 24% 31% 20% 0% 23% 15% 19.5% Def Secondary FS  0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1.7% Off QB  QB  0% 5% 13% 5% 0% 9% 7% 2.8% Off RB  RB  7% 5% 13% 10% 0% 5% 4% 6.6% Off FB  FB  0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 7% 0.3% Off WR  WR  0% 19% 13% 5% 15% 0% 15% 8.1% Off TE  TE  14% 5% 6% 10% 15% 5% 4% 8.9% Off O-Line C  0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 5% 0% 0.1% Off O-Line G  7% 5% 0% 5% 0% 5% 4% 4.3% Off O-Line OL  7% 0% 0% 10% 8% 5% 0% 4.5% Off O-Line T  0% 10% 6% 10% 23% 5% 4% 4.4% ST ST K  0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 4% 0.3% ST ST LS  0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0.0% ST ST P  0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0.1% [/tablegrid]

 

[wutang112878]

Next we have the same data but for just the last 5 years:
 
Whole League:
 
[tablegrid= Whole Leage - 2009 - 2013 ]Side Category Pos  % of Rd 1 % of Rd 2 % of Rd 3 % of Rd 4 % of Rd 5 % of Rd 6 % of Rd 7 % of Value Def D-Line NT  0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Def D-Line DE  18% 10% 11% 10% 10% 7% 13% 14% Def D-Line DT  11% 9% 8% 6% 3% 3% 9% 10% Def LB LB  8% 17% 9% 15% 11% 12% 10% 10% Def Secondary DB  12% 17% 22% 14% 23% 16% 18% 14% Def Secondary SS 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% Def Secondary FS  2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 0% 1% Off QB  QB  9% 4% 3% 4% 4% 5% 4% 10% Off RB  RB  6% 10% 5% 9% 8% 13% 9% 6% Off FB  FB  0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% Off WR  WR  11% 11% 16% 14% 9% 12% 11% 11% Off TE  TE  2% 5% 6% 8% 6% 7% 8% 3% Off O-Line C  2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% Off O-Line G  1% 1% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% Off O-Line OL  13% 9% 9% 9% 8% 11% 9% 12% Off O-Line T  5% 4% 2% 2% 5% 2% 3% 5% ST ST K  0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0% ST ST LS  0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% ST ST P  0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 1% 0% 0% [/tablegrid]
 
Patriots:
 
[tablegrid= Patriots - 2009 - 2013 ]Side Category   Qty Rd 1 Qty Rd 2 Qty Rd 3 Qty Rd 4 Qty Rd 5 Qty Rd 6 Qty Rd 7 % of Total Value Def D-Line DE  25% 0% 13% 0% 0% 0% 18% 9.5% Def D-Line DT  0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 20% 18% 5.2% Def LB LB  25% 25% 13% 0% 0% 20% 9% 19.0% Def Secondary DB  25% 25% 25% 0% 0% 20% 18% 26.6% Def Secondary FS  0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4.2% Off QB  QB  0% 0% 13% 0% 0% 0% 9% 2.2% Off RB  RB  0% 8% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5.7% Off WR  WR  0% 8% 25% 33% 0% 0% 18% 7.3% Off TE  TE  0% 8% 0% 33% 25% 0% 0% 5.8% Off O-Line C  0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0.1% Off O-Line G  0% 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0.5% Off O-Line OL  25% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 9.9% Off O-Line T  0% 8% 0% 0% 25% 0% 9% 3.5% ST ST LS  0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0.1% ST ST P  0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 0.3% [/tablegrid]

 

[wutang112878]

Now, more importantly, what can we reasonably conclude.
 
If we look compare Bill to the entire league over his Patriots drafting tenure: (2000 to 2013):
 
[tablegrid= O-Line Resources - 2000 to 2013 ] Side Category   % of Rd 1 % of Rd 2 % of Rd 3 % of Rd 4 % of Rd 5 % of Rd 6 % of Rd 7 % of Value Patriots Off O-Line Interior 7.1% 4.8% 0.0% 5.0% 7.7% 9.1% 3.7% 4.5% Patriots Off O-Line Tackle 7.1% 9.5% 6.3% 20.0% 30.8% 9.1% 3.7% 8.9%                         Patriots Total       14.3% 14.3% 6.3% 25.0% 38.5% 18.2% 7.4% 13.3%                         League Off O-Line Interior 3.1% 6.3% 4.8% 7.1% 7.0% 6.5% 8.6% 3.7% League Off O-Line Tackle 12.8% 9.3% 9.5% 9.7% 9.0% 10.4% 9.2% 12.3%                         League Total       16.0% 15.6% 14.3% 16.8% 16.1% 17.0% 17.8% 16.0% [/tablegrid]
 
In terms of 'Total Value' Bill's spent 13.3% of his resources in terms of value on the O-line compared to the league average of 16.0%   Digging a little further he uses far less resources on Tackles compared to the rest of the league, and has spent more on the interior compared to the rest of the league.
 
However, when we look at recent history (last 5 years):
 
[tablegrid= Last 5 Years - 2009 to 2013 ] Side Category   % of Rd 1 % of Rd 2 % of Rd 3 % of Rd 4 % of Rd 5 % of Rd 6 % of Rd 7 % of Value Patriots Off O-Line Interior 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.6% Patriots Off O-Line Tackle 25.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 9.1% 13.5%                         Patriots Total       25.0% 8.3% 0.0% 33.3% 50.0% 20.0% 9.1% 14.1%                                                 League Off O-Line Interior 2.5% 1.9% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 2.7% 3.3% 2.0% League Off O-Line Tackle 18.1% 13.4% 11.2% 11.7% 13.4% 12.8% 11.3% 16.9%                         League Total       20.6% 15.3% 14.7% 15.1% 16.8% 15.5% 14.6% 18.9% [/tablegrid]
 
This is where we start to see some problems.
 
Bill spent 14.1% of his draft assets on the O-line compared to the league average 18.9%  He was in the ballpark at Tackle spending 13.5% (Solder & Vollmer) compared to the league's 16.9% but there has been virtually no spending on the interior of the line 0.6% compared to 2%   When you look at the % of picks by round for the interior of the line its 2.5%, 1.9% and 3.5% in the first 3 rounds respectively or ~8% total of all 3 rounds, whereas the Pats have spent (wait for it) 0.0000%  
 
But now we need to step back a bit from the data, if we spent 8% of our Round 1 to 3 picks (assuming 1 pick per round) * 5 years then 8% * 5 = 1.2   So while these numbers look bad from a percentage standpoint, if we want to complain they arent devoting enough resources then what we are really squabbling about is that we should have drafted an additional 1.2 interior lineman in the first 3 rounds over the past 5 years.  And maybe if a few drafts unfolded a little differently and we felt value was there on the board then we might have even taken 2 interior lineman. 
 
Which brings me back full circle back to my original point in this series of posts, its really tough to be a GM when you have to listen to a bunch of armchair GMs.  Intuitively we can point to the draft history and show that we havent taken any interior lineman of consequence but once we really dig into the numbers, their strategy really isnt that far off of the norm.
 
 
Sidenote, one thing they should really get praise for, is drafting Tackles.  Except for the start of this year, Tackle hasnt been a colossal failure for them and they were able to do this while spending much, much fewer resources on the Tackle position than the league average. 

 

[wutang112878]

wutang gets 2 free passes to troll anyone on this forum. Good work & thanks.

 
And I plan to use every single one of them, so watch out!
 
Seriously, thanks, I appreciate it.

 

[twothousandone]

While I thought you were away doing real work -- I had no real work to do. So I figured I'd address the question from a more recent perspective (I think this fits the thread). The OL line seemed a bit questionable after last season. And while it is second-guessing for me (I'm no draft follower) many on this board questioned Jimmy G as the #2 pick. Mallet was around, and unless they thought Jimmy G. was THE answer as a long-term Brady replacement (not McCarron, not Golson, not Kenny Hill or Kyle Allen), they argued there was better help for this year's team, including OL. Between Garoppolo and Stork, 11 OL were selected.
 
Justin Britt, Seattle, OT, Missouri
Morgan Moses, Washington, OT, Virginia
Billy Turner, Miami, OT, ND State
Marcus Martin, San Fran, C, USC
Travis Swanson, Detroit, C, Arkansas
Spencer Long, Washington, OG, Nebraska
Gabe Jackson, Oakland, OG, Mississippi St.
Chris Watt, San Diego, OL, Notre Dame
Trai Turner, Carolina, OG, LSU
Brandon Linder, Jacksonville, OG, Miami
Michael Schofield, Denver, OT, Michigan
 
The guys in bold are starters according to ESPN's depth chart. Long-term draft strategies aside, the Pats could have had any of these guys instead of Garoppolo. Of course, if they select Martin, then maybe they don't take Stork, and everything changes. But how might this season be different already if they had selected an available OL, rather than Jimmy G?

 

[Leather]

I don't think another rookie OL, unless he was a real top-flight talent, would be able to step in and materially benefit the O line this year.
 
The fact that those guys are starting in their respective team's systems is really not an accurate measure of their talent.  Well established O lines can absorb one new guy fairly easily; it's another matter entirely when the entire O Line, minus one or two guys, is a shambles.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Per Bruschi: http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/page/bruschiontap-0930/lower-your-expectations-new-england-patriots
 

I'm going to tell you this: Even if they had Wes Welker, Randy Moss and whatever offensive weapons you want to name, they'd still be struggling, because they can't block. As much as you want offensive production, football on offense is about blocking first. If you can't run the ball or protect, you'll never a get a chance to see anything else. 

I don't know how much improvement you'll see offensively. To me, it all starts with the offensive line. Not just with the Patriots, but with offensive football in general.