Haven’t had one of these in a while. Jesus.* Played Celtics 2H -5.5 for piles!
Got some luck back to sneak the 1H number in.These bubble playoffs are so unique with the underdog not returning home while still having to find a way to adjust to the better team in the same environment. I’m looking at teams in Brooklyn (and Orlando) as two teams who mentally have to be about checked out now KNOWING that they have zero chance to advance or even win another game (losing Joe Harris was a huge blow). Psychologically they wouldn’t seem to be able to sustain a 48-min effort against the superior team. We saw both have long droughts, both offensively and defensively in their last game and being one game closer to leaving the bubble I cannot fathom either being able to muster much resistance which should lead to longer Raptor and Bucks runs. We’ve also seen both favorites take their foot off the gas in their last so here is my game plan today with the Raptors. You can pretty much copy and paste it with the Bucks tomorrow. I’ll use “units” to best describe my bankroll strategy for these games.
* Raptors -8 1H (1 unit)
* Raptors -13 FT (2 unit)
* Nets hedge/middle either 2H or 2H in-game (between 1-2 units)
I’m looking to lock in a 1H win while seeking a spot to add another .5-1 unit win while creating a huge middle opportunity along with hedging the backdoor cover.
Yeah, @ugmo33 I would probably recommend Bovada for any beginner. You're going to be relatively safe with any of Bovada, BetOnline, Bookmaker, 5Dimes, or Heritage. BetOnline is my favorite by far. I would always recommend using bitcoin to deposit/withdraw. It removes so many potential headaches. I do understand why someone might not want to learn the world of crypto just to place a few bets, but if you think it's going to be more than a one time thing, it's definitely worth it.Bovada is the McDonald's i think. It's safe and quick. And very quick if you use bitcoin
Real quick. You can buy btc anywhere (even cash app)--> send it to a wallet (like a breadwallet or blockchain)--> then send it to your book.Yeah, @ugmo33 I would probably recommend Bovada for any beginner. You're going to be relatively safe with any of Bovada, BetOnline, Bookmaker, 5Dimes, or Heritage. BetOnline is my favorite by far. I would always recommend using bitcoin to deposit/withdraw. It removes so many potential headaches. I do understand why someone might not want to learn the world of crypto just to place a few bets, but if you think it's going to be more than a one time thing, it's definitely worth it.
Yeah, the middle wallet is important. Otherwise, financial institutions such as Cash App, Coinbase, or crypto exchanges might ban you, as they're not allowed to transact with offshore sportsbooks. They won't detect this every time, so don't get cocky and think that you're cool just because you sent a few deposits directly from Coinbase without a problem.Real quick. You can buy btc anywhere (even cash app)--> send it to a wallet (like a breadwallet or blockchain)--> then send it to your book.
Utah and 2H Celtics. Bet on sports they said. It will be fun they said.HRB screwed on Jazz -3.5. TT easily over 110 at least.
Exactly. It's an extra step but worth itYeah, the middle wallet is important. Otherwise, financial institutions such as Cash App, Coinbase, or crypto exchanges might ban you, as they're not allowed to transact with offshore sportsbooks. They won't detect this every time, so don't get cocky and think that you're cool just because you sent a few deposits directly from Coinbase without a problem.
I was anticipating 4 three-pointer buzzer beating losses in a row. It was shaking up with the foul on DiV down 14.Bucks up 14 with 37 seconds to go. Line was 13. Amazing how often it comes down to the last minute.
Edit: Magic only team in the NBA that fouls down 14 with 19 seconds to go. Villanova makes 1 of 2.
Terrence Ross misses from 3 and Bucks win by 15. That would have been a cruel dagger.
Uh...yeah...ok. We’re on to Cincinnati.* Portland +7 along with some money line and series sprinkle. Lakers has their opportunity to show me on Saturday that G1 was an Orlando/Milwaukee G1 where they were caught off guard but their flaws appear very real. Great value here and as always looking to play an in-game Under at start of 4th should the Lakers hold a small lead where they control pace.
Utah TT is 111.5Uh...yeah...ok. We’re on to Cincinnati.
* I’ll be coming right back bigger and better with Utah -3 for piles! Nuggets played as well as they can play with Murray being about as hot as he could be......and they still lost. I still feel these numbers should be -7 or -7.5 as the Nuggets have too many defensive holes for the Jazz to tatget with pick n rolls. Murray’s shooting isn’t sustainable however Mitchell creating switches and angles to get to the rim absolutely is. Even if the Nuggets can keep it close in the 1H they don’t have answers against the Jazz half court sets in the 2H.
* I’ll once again play some Over Utah TT expecting it to be 111 when it comes out in the morning. I’m also going to include a little 1H -1.5 to the mix.
Wednesday action:Utah TT is 111.5
Saw an early Miami +430 vs Milwaukee on one site. Pizza money at work right here. Why not, I’m gonna to be taking the 8 points in each game for as long as they let me until it adjusts.Dallas is +280 to win the series. That seems like a good bet.
Celtics are +130 to beat Toronto.
Looks like I’m on the sucker side of this one. Utah the huge public play with a reverse line move to Denver. I like being on the side of the eyes and the models but we’re going with the eyes only on this one!! Old school style LFG!Uh...yeah...ok. We’re on to Cincinnati.
* I’ll be coming right back bigger and better with Utah -3 for piles! Nuggets played as well as they can play with Murray being about as hot as he could be......and they still lost. I still feel these numbers should be -7 or -7.5 as the Nuggets have too many defensive holes for the Jazz to tatget with pick n rolls. Murray’s shooting isn’t sustainable however Mitchell creating switches and angles to get to the rim absolutely is. Even if the Nuggets can keep it close in the 1H they don’t have answers against the Jazz half court sets in the 2H.
* I’ll once again play some Over Utah TT expecting it to be 111 when it comes out in the morning. I’m also going to include a little 1H -1.5 to the mix.
Well done. So weird. My only plays on this game was in the 4Q that I split after the Blazers tied it up.....I also layed 5.5 and the under w in a correlated idea of the Lakers defense scheming to take the ball out of CJ’s hands. I forgot that the Lakers secondary rotations were already thinking of the next series. Today I’ve got.....Blazers shooting 74% from 3. Fading all their totals, took LAL -5.5 in game.
Yeah. I’m in a rut. I need some HRB guidance here.Hrb, miami is up to +6. Do i sell my son frozen in carbonite on it?
Ah just logging on now was busy all day. I don’t see any reason why Miami doesn’t win again. Maybe I’m wrong but I don’t think the Bucks are the better team. I’ve got them dead even or a tiny lean to the Heat. Played then with 6 and money line again.Yeah. I’m in a rut. I need some HRB guidance here.
I probably would have taken half of your son and taken the Heat the the 6 and taken the other half on OKC +5.5. The problem is if you split you have to put him back together which could get messy......so a parlay was clearly the way to go!Hrb, miami is up to +6. Do i sell my son frozen in carbonite on it?
Sorry man. The party isn’t in the books yet.Dammit! Too late to the party
Could still go live bet but odds have adjusted a bit. I may just sit this out.Sorry man. The party isn’t in the books yet.
Much like Joe Sixpack I hedged some. Played Bucks at Pk live late 2Q for same amount as my Heat ML so I’m free rolling the rest of the +205. Keeping my +6 intact.
I like OKC a lot here. To win the game. Getting the points makes me like them even more. Played game similar to this one.....+5.5 and +185 ML. Also a little Under as well and could add more in-game once we get into the 2Q if there are some points scored.Could still go live bet but odds have adjusted a bit. I may just sit this out.
Thoughts on Houston? That’s such a volatile team. Hard to know.
Sick finish. I went from sweeping the game to watching Butler do his best JR Smith impersonation to put me in danger of GETTING swept if the official doesn’t make that call on Giannis and the game goes to OT. Insane finish.I had Miami stacked with +6 & under 222 parlay. Money line. -1, -2.5 (+350!) under 232 under 235
that 3 point foul at the end blew up my 2.5... cost me $2000. Thankfully Jimmy Butler decided to hit the 2nd useless FT to win by 2.
Yes. It's coming on the Toronto side.Has anyone taken note of these O/U in the Celtics-Raptors series? They were 216 the past few games, which I thought was too high. I'm looking at the number now and it's 217? The series has been a rock fight. Someone must know something I don't.
I don’t know if this series is as much of a rock fight as it is Toronto missing shots that they ordinarily make. The Raptors “Big 3” of Lowry, Siakam and FVV short 3-19 from 3 in G1 with a ton of misses at the rim and shot 3-23 from 3 in G2. This seems like a terrible matchup with the Celtics when you factor in the reg season bubble game but I’d have to think that the Raptors aren’t going to continue shooting in the teens from 3 which affects all other aspects of their offense.Has anyone taken note of these O/U in the Celtics-Raptors series? They were 216 the past few games, which I thought was too high. I'm looking at the number now and it's 217? The series has been a rock fight. Someone must know something I don't.
It isn’t only the math of numbers of threes x 3 but everything else it opens up for your offense. Dribble drive angles, confidence, etc etc.First two games were 206 and 201. So we’re talking about 4-5 more 3s from Toronto. They got 40 3s off in each of the first two games. That’s about a 10-13% increase in 3 point shooting - or roughly 40% from 3. Certainly not improbable but we know the Celtics whole game plan is to slow down Toronto into half court sets and force the bigs to shoot. We’ll see how it plays out. I like the over 1Q as a hedge like HRB said.
I’m glad I got my 1Q Over and ran. It seems to be mental with the Raptors now especially Lowry, FVV and Siakam, who is suddenly playing like the 27th pick in the draft. They still grind so hard they aren’t out of it so I’m not ready to fade them in-game.Oof. Awful start for Vleet. And 2 fouls. Gonna warm myself with my money burning.
Maybe not!Oof. Awful start for Vleet. And 2 fouls. Gonna warm myself with my money burning.
I am such a sucker for the 3pt props. Guys just put up so many attempts now.Maybe not!
Amazing how quickly things can turn with a prop like that.
Ok. Im back from the dealership. I just sold the wife's car to put some more money on FVV on 3.5 3s