Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
Both 4-8 teams playing today (NYJ, CHI) win, lessening a potential blow if NE ends up at 4 wins. The other two 4-8 teams (NYG, TEN) will play tomorrow night. WAS is on a very late bye and already at 4-9.
Carolina lost 28-6 to NO and is assuredly giving CHI the #1 pick now.
Carolina lost 28-6 to NO and is assuredly giving CHI the #1 pick now.
And next week's TEN vs HOU is a bit more doable now as well with the potential for Stroud to be out.
So today helped a lot. Going forward here are the biggest individual impact games for the Patriots:
1. All of our own games obviously. Lose out and finish no lower than 3rd.
2. WAS vs. Jets. Not only do we really want WAS to win for safety, if it comes against the Jets even better as it has a big SOS impact (a win for a team we played, but a loss for a team we play twice)
3. TEN against MIA on Monday night.... less likely outcome, but again clears a 4 win team and has a double SOS impact.
4. Giants v. New Orleans... any Giants win is good, but the two PHI games are worse than NO or GB as it helps WAS a lot in SOS.
5. Any ARI game, but likely particularly CHI.
1. All of our own games obviously. Lose out and finish no lower than 3rd.
2. WAS vs. Jets. Not only do we really want WAS to win for safety, if it comes against the Jets even better as it has a big SOS impact (a win for a team we played, but a loss for a team we play twice)
3. TEN against MIA on Monday night.... less likely outcome, but again clears a 4 win team and has a double SOS impact.
4. Giants v. New Orleans... any Giants win is good, but the two PHI games are worse than NO or GB as it helps WAS a lot in SOS.
5. Any ARI game, but likely particularly CHI.
Russell Wilson isn't remotely what he used to be. This Patriots team ain't beating Denver IN Denver, even if Payton didn't have then playing pretty well, which he does.
I don't agree.
I don't see how anyone looks at the Bills' season and they people they struggled with or lost to (including oh.... the Patriots?) and assumes they show up and take care of business.
As to the other 2, I assume we lose easily to KC, but Denver.... wild up and down team especially on D.
The Patriots defense is good enough that could be a tight one.
Yes, that's what I'm saying. He can still throw up on himself from time to time, although he's been good this year.
This is usually when I say, "I hope you guys are right," but I don't. I feel pretty certain that the Patriots winning on the road against Denver - yet another more talented team - is a near impossible task. Anything could happen, I get it, but...no. In my mind, it's an obvious loss. AND I hope you're wrong bc at this point all I want is the best possible draft slot. (That said, when they beat Pitt Thursday, I felt so good for the team and for BB.)
Current worst standings
1. Car 1-12 - vs Atl, vs GB, at Jax, vs TB
2. NE 3-10 - vs KC, at Den, at Buf, vs NYJ
3. Ari 3-10 - vs SF, at Chi, at Phi, vs Sea
4. Was 4-9 - at LAR, at NYJ, vs SF, vs Dal (beat NE H2H)
5. NYG 4-8 - vs GB, at NO, at Phi, vs LAR, vs Phi (beat NE H2H)
6. Ten 4-8 - at Mia, vs Hou, vs Sea, at Hou, vs Jax
My predicted finish:
1. Car 1-16
2. Ari 3-14
3. NE 4-13
4. Was 4-13 (but owns a H2H victory over NE)
5. NYG 4-13 (but owns a H2H victory over NE)
6. Ten 5-12
1. Car 1-12 - vs Atl, vs GB, at Jax, vs TB
2. NE 3-10 - vs KC, at Den, at Buf, vs NYJ
3. Ari 3-10 - vs SF, at Chi, at Phi, vs Sea
4. Was 4-9 - at LAR, at NYJ, vs SF, vs Dal (beat NE H2H)
5. NYG 4-8 - vs GB, at NO, at Phi, vs LAR, vs Phi (beat NE H2H)
6. Ten 4-8 - at Mia, vs Hou, vs Sea, at Hou, vs Jax
My predicted finish:
1. Car 1-16
2. Ari 3-14
3. NE 4-13
4. Was 4-13 (but owns a H2H victory over NE)
5. NYG 4-13 (but owns a H2H victory over NE)
6. Ten 5-12
H2H is largely meaningless unless they somehow end up with identical SOS which is possible but not very likely.
I think the odds of both WAS and NYG have the exact same SOS as the Patriots is incredibly low.
I'm putting some money on the Pats here. The Chiefs have one guy you have to worry about on offense, and if there's something Bill Belichick will be able to accomplish even at 95 years old is scheming up a way to stop an offense that's over reliant on one player. I don't think the Pats win, but they'll keep the margin below two digits.
Maybe but the Pats will also seriously struggle to score. Unless Zappe eats a fair amount of sacks and plays it very safe, I think we'll see a few turnovers and short fields for KC. I could see a 14-3 game or something.
Using BBJ's table, and expanding on it.
1. Car 1-12 - vs Atl (+3), vs GB (+2.5), at Jax (+9.5), vs TB (+1.5)
2. NE 3-10 - vs KC (+10), at Den (+4.5), at Buf (+8), vs NYJ(-3.5)
3. Ari 3-10 - vs SF (+14), at Chi (+3.5), at Phi (+13.5), vs Sea (+3)
4. Was 4-9 - at LAR (+7), at NYJ (+1.5), vs SF (+11), vs Dal (+7.5)
5. NYG 4-8 - vs GB (+6), at NO (+6.5), at Phi (+18.5), vs LAR (+6.5), vs Phi (+16)
6. Ten 4-8 - at Mia (+14), vs Hou (-2), vs Sea (+1), at Hou (+3.5), vs Jax (+3)
I added future spreads and colors using a Patriots lens (ie what helps Pats get a top pick)
The only games where the above teams are favored are Pats season finale (vs Jets) and Ten vs Hou. They are all dogs otherwise, with a worst spread of 18.5 (NYG at Philly).
Source data is Survivor Grids 2023 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Grid - Week 14 Survivor Picks (survivorgrid.com)
If you want a top pick, then you want the Patriots to lose out and these other teams to win. I am using a basic strategy that:
-If either Pats favored to lose by more than 3 or one of the above teams is favored to win - green
-If any team is favored to lose by 3 or less, call that 'in the balance' and mark it blue
-If any of the non-Pats teams are expected to lose by more than 3, mark it red. In addition, any games the Pats are favored to win, mark it red.
At a glance it looks very realistic that:
-Carolina wins one more game, and potentially two
-Pats add one more win
-Arizona gets one more win
-Wash could lose out
-The Giants will lose out
-Titans will get two more wins
I think that means:
CAR: 2-15 or 3-14
NE: 4-13
ARI: 4-13
WAS: 4-13
NYG: 4-13
TEN: 6-11
SOS tiebreaker is going to be huge to determine 2-5 position
1. Car 1-12 - vs Atl (+3), vs GB (+2.5), at Jax (+9.5), vs TB (+1.5)
2. NE 3-10 - vs KC (+10), at Den (+4.5), at Buf (+8), vs NYJ(-3.5)
3. Ari 3-10 - vs SF (+14), at Chi (+3.5), at Phi (+13.5), vs Sea (+3)
4. Was 4-9 - at LAR (+7), at NYJ (+1.5), vs SF (+11), vs Dal (+7.5)
5. NYG 4-8 - vs GB (+6), at NO (+6.5), at Phi (+18.5), vs LAR (+6.5), vs Phi (+16)
6. Ten 4-8 - at Mia (+14), vs Hou (-2), vs Sea (+1), at Hou (+3.5), vs Jax (+3)
I added future spreads and colors using a Patriots lens (ie what helps Pats get a top pick)
The only games where the above teams are favored are Pats season finale (vs Jets) and Ten vs Hou. They are all dogs otherwise, with a worst spread of 18.5 (NYG at Philly).
Source data is Survivor Grids 2023 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Grid - Week 14 Survivor Picks (survivorgrid.com)
If you want a top pick, then you want the Patriots to lose out and these other teams to win. I am using a basic strategy that:
-If either Pats favored to lose by more than 3 or one of the above teams is favored to win - green
-If any team is favored to lose by 3 or less, call that 'in the balance' and mark it blue
-If any of the non-Pats teams are expected to lose by more than 3, mark it red. In addition, any games the Pats are favored to win, mark it red.
At a glance it looks very realistic that:
-Carolina wins one more game, and potentially two
-Pats add one more win
-Arizona gets one more win
-Wash could lose out
-The Giants will lose out
-Titans will get two more wins
I think that means:
CAR: 2-15 or 3-14
NE: 4-13
ARI: 4-13
WAS: 4-13
NYG: 4-13
TEN: 6-11
SOS tiebreaker is going to be huge to determine 2-5 position
So Pats, and WAS have the same SOS at .528, Arizona is .555. , NYG .521. According to Tankathon, the remaining SOS is
Arizona: .596
Was: .596
NYG: .594
NE: .519
Seems likely New England would have the weakest SOS of those 4 win teams.
Giants 19 point dogs in Philly? I'm taking the Giants to cover in that one and I wouldn't totally be surprised if that came down to the final possession. I also give the Giants a 50/50 shot against New Orleans. The Saints are nothing special.
The SOS is factoring all 17 opponents and their winning % to date. So that is already baked in.
So one thing to keep in mind, Tankathon's SOS includes their projected remaining SOS, so the remaining SOS numbers you note don't change the ones listed.
That last game of the season against the Jets presents an interesting dynamic, if they need to lose that game to secure a top 2 pick. BB seems like someone that would rather quit coaching than lose a football game on purpose (integrity of the game). I'm not so sure that Kraft would feel the same way with a chance to secure the QB of the future on the line.
Bill has been happy to go with vanilla game plans that aren't outright throwing games but significantly limit their ability to win. He knows the score here. If he wants to stay in NE he needs an influx of talent, particularly at QB. If he doesn't, then it's harder to predict.
They are truly the cautionary tale for the "blow it up completely" crowd.... they did, they got the #1 pick.... and their team is far far far worse than the current Patriots, WRs... worse, RBs.. worse, TEs... worse, Tackles..... worse, Guards... worse?, C...worse. And their defense is worse too.
The Pats are in a far better position than Carolina for many reasons. And while the Pats mostly suck this year, you could argue they have played more like a 5 win team to date than a 3 win team. Hell, the Steelers are 7-6 and in my opinion are pretty much a mirror image of the Pats. In other words, the Pats are a bit "lucky" to have this few wins, in terms of draft position.
Its not really an apples to apples comparison though.
Why the Panthers are so fucked is because they had to put together a MONSTER package to move up and get their QB.
If they just had the #1 pick last year, they still have DJ Moore and they have this years 1st round pick. Not having their 1st round pick this year is why things look so bleak in Carolina.
DJ Moore is the most underrated receiver in the NFL, IMO.
In his not quite 6 year career, the dude has 440 catches for 6,272 yards and 28tds.
He has over 1,100 yards in 4 of the past 5 seasons. The starting quarterbacks on those teams have been Justin Fields, Sam Darnold (11 games)/Cam Newton (5 games), Teddy Bridgewater, and the immortal Kyle Allen.
Does this change things?
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39092468/north-carolina-qb-drake-maye-entering-nfl-draft
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39092468/north-carolina-qb-drake-maye-entering-nfl-draft
Yeah, imagine if they had Christian Gonzalez, DJ, and Caleb Williams along with whoever they lose with their 2025 second. Instead, they have Bryce Young who might be an epic bust.
If anything, it’s less about a cautionary tale about blowing it up and more about a cautionary tale of trading up. Now, if they did all that and got Stroud, they’d probably feel better about themselves. Unless you’re the Niners, you’re boned if you screw up a top 3 QB evaluation.
Bill did tank a game-tying 2 point conversion with no time left in week 17 in one year (2006?) when it gave the Pats a much easier playoff matchup.
Meh, you can't tell if Young is a bust because he's on by far the worst roster in the league, and Stroud would probably be injured... he's in a much better offense and he's taking a beating (and is now hurt).
Even if they had finished one last year... okay, add DJ Moore back in, okay add a 2nd.... that's still a TERRIBLE team... one of the worst O-lines in the league, Moore would be their only good WR (they probably wouldn't even have Thielen as a #2 because of Moore's salary), their RBs are JAGs, their TE is Hayden Hurst.... their defense is below average.
Now they'd have another #1 pick and maybe that starts to turn it around, but even then.... they'd be a very bad team with not much cap space and huge holes.
Tearing it to the studs is a terrible idea because nobody bats 1.000 on draft picks or FA and tearing it down like that means you have to nail just about everything 3-4 years in a row.
I did not know that but ESPN’s breathless push of that story would’ve suggested otherwise.
I mean, Maye and Williams are in every mock draft in top 3 and one of the top 2 QBs. He's one of the guys that we've all been tracking the draft pick status for.
ESPN is pushing the story the same way a story is pushed when anything expected to happen actually happens. And, of course, ESPN sucks.
Yeah Maye was always coming out, and likely to skip the Bowl. That he is skipping the bowl is good news though, greatly reduces the chances he suffers a major injury that could effect draftability, which is of course good for him, but also good for a team like NE that wants as many of the top QBs available as possible.
How did they tear it down to the studs outside of trading McCaffrey and DJ? Isn’t most of their issues just the culmination of poor personnel decisions during the Rhule era?
I also don’t see many people advocating a similar strategy for the Pats.