Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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The Patriots also have played notoriously shitty in Denver for many years even with great Brady teams.
arizona in chicago next week...if kyler's healthy (he looked banged up today) they can absolutely win that game)
catching the panthers is unlikely but involves 1) losing out and 2) them winning one of vs. GB, @JAX, vs TB- they're currently 3.5 pt underdogs vs GB next week, will probably be around +10/+11 at Jax, and probably +2.5/+3 at home vs Tampa (barring any of those teams resting players). They have no real incentive to tank without their own 1st round draft pick.
thank you @amfox1 for the SOS there. Pats could use a Jaguars win tonight, which would strengthen CAR's SOS. And then yea PHI-SEA is a swing game tomorrow night.
catching the panthers is unlikely but involves 1) losing out and 2) them winning one of vs. GB, @JAX, vs TB- they're currently 3.5 pt underdogs vs GB next week, will probably be around +10/+11 at Jax, and probably +2.5/+3 at home vs Tampa (barring any of those teams resting players). They have no real incentive to tank without their own 1st round draft pick.
thank you @amfox1 for the SOS there. Pats could use a Jaguars win tonight, which would strengthen CAR's SOS. And then yea PHI-SEA is a swing game tomorrow night.
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Probably was the wrong word. I don’t think the game is that dissimilar from the Steelers game last week.
I think the Patriots have played well enough since the QB change, and the defense for weeks before, that while hey may not be favored in any game, they have a real chance in every game. I expect they win at least 1 of the last 3 (probably Jets, but Broncos a real chance too)
Still amazes me the 0-4 Patriots won in Denver in 2000 for the first win of the BB era, given what both came before and came after in that godforsaken place.
Hmmmm….maybe it’s time to dust off Mac, just to be sure. Jokes aside, and it is super small sample size, but it’s interesting how Zappe has looked like a replacement level QB in both first half starts and pretty awful in both second halves.
I don't know why anyone would think the 2023 Patriots on the road at Denver is at all a likely win. Broncos aren't amazing or anything, but they're well coached, have some pretty damn good weapons and have the better QB. That's an almost sure L, in my view.
I don’t think anyone thinks it’s a “likely” win but it’s certainly a possible one. The Pats can hang with any team that doesn’t have an explosive offense and Denver clearly qualifies there. I think they’ll lose but it could be a close one. My hope is that they won’t really be into it during Christmas week and preparation will suffer.
lines just updated.
Next week should be interesting. Week 17 everyone is heavy dogs. Then the final week I imagine will be lots of scoreboard watching.
I really want that Was win over the Jets.
I mean, if we want to be fair he's actually looked a lot better than replacement level in the first half, he's just been correspondingly terrible in the second.
Tanking strategy. Go out and play some good football for a half, then turtle for a pick.
The pick falling from 6-9 is incredibly unlikely, though I agree the Broncos game is big in terms of, likely, 2 v 5.
The Pats Oline, which had been coming together, now looks likely to fall apart again with injuries. That will really hurt (help) us. Playing on the road against a team with something on the line...I think they keep it decently close but lose 21-13 or something.
He's started the last 3 games now, but I can certainly understand forgetting the Chargers game.
We scored 0 points against a defense that has given up 87 points since against the Broncos and Raiders.
End of week 15
2-12 CAR and 3-11 NE have the same SOS (.5210). 3-11 ARI has a significantly higher SOS than NE. NE still in the #2 spot.
2-12 CAR SOS .5210 (124-114 - ATLx2 (12-16), TBx2 (14-14), NOx2 (14-14), JAX (8-6), IND (8-6), TEN (5-9), HOU (8-6), MIA (10-4), MIN (7-7), DET (10-4), GB (6-8), CHI (5-9), DAL (10-4), SEA (7-7))
3-11 NE SOS .5210 (124-114 - NYJx2 (10-18), BUFx2 (16-12), MIAx2 (20-8), PHI (10-4), DAL (10-4), WAS (4-10), NYG (5-9), NO (7-7), LV (6-8), DEN (7-7), KC (9-5), LAC (5-9), IND (8-6), PIT (7-7))
Week 16 games of interest (excl obv ARI-CHI, GB-CAR & NE-DEN games)
Thu - NO-LAR, root for NO win
Sat - CIN-PIT, root for CIN win,
Sat - BUF-LAC, root for LAC win
Sun - IND-ATL, root for ATL win
Sun - SEA-TEN & DET-MIN, no impact on SOS for CAR/NE
Sun - WAS-NYJ, root for WAS win
Sun - CLE-HOU, root for HOU win
Sun - JAX-TB, root for TB win
Sun - DAL-MIA, root for DAL win
Mon - LV-KC & PHI-NYG & BAL-SF, no impact on SOS for CAR/NE
2-12 CAR and 3-11 NE have the same SOS (.5210). 3-11 ARI has a significantly higher SOS than NE. NE still in the #2 spot.
2-12 CAR SOS .5210 (124-114 - ATLx2 (12-16), TBx2 (14-14), NOx2 (14-14), JAX (8-6), IND (8-6), TEN (5-9), HOU (8-6), MIA (10-4), MIN (7-7), DET (10-4), GB (6-8), CHI (5-9), DAL (10-4), SEA (7-7))
3-11 NE SOS .5210 (124-114 - NYJx2 (10-18), BUFx2 (16-12), MIAx2 (20-8), PHI (10-4), DAL (10-4), WAS (4-10), NYG (5-9), NO (7-7), LV (6-8), DEN (7-7), KC (9-5), LAC (5-9), IND (8-6), PIT (7-7))
Week 16 games of interest (excl obv ARI-CHI, GB-CAR & NE-DEN games)
Thu - NO-LAR, root for NO win
Sat - CIN-PIT, root for CIN win,
Sat - BUF-LAC, root for LAC win
Sun - IND-ATL, root for ATL win
Sun - SEA-TEN & DET-MIN, no impact on SOS for CAR/NE
Sun - WAS-NYJ, root for WAS win
Sun - CLE-HOU, root for HOU win
Sun - JAX-TB, root for TB win
Sun - DAL-MIA, root for DAL win
Mon - LV-KC & PHI-NYG & BAL-SF, no impact on SOS for CAR/NE
Haven't run the match but is this true? To me, I would think an LAR win increases NE's chance at a top 2 pick, even if it doesn't help them get closer to 1.
New England and Carolina both play New Orleans so a New Orleans win is 2 wins for Carolina's SOS and 1 for NE. LAR only plays Arizona so a LAR win would strengthen Arizona's SOS by 2 wins while New England's SOS weakes by 1 win. I would think LAR winning would 'help' the Pats SOS over Arizona.
Somehow Carolina has two wins despite having run precisely zero 4th quarter plays with a lead. Both of their wins were walkoff FGs. That is an amazing stat.
Technically NE can still tie LAR in wins as improbable as it may be I prefer to root for teams that are impossible to catch.
Same goes with NYG-PHI, might have no impact on SOS but NE can tie them with just two wins so give me NYG all day.
Hopefully NE loses to DEN this week and eliminates the worst case scenarios. If there is even a hint that Bill is coaching his last game in a Patriot uniform at home vs. the NYJ I fully expect a NE win by double digits comfortably. The coaching GOAT will not be tanking his last possible game.
Same goes with NYG-PHI, might have no impact on SOS but NE can tie them with just two wins so give me NYG all day.
Hopefully NE loses to DEN this week and eliminates the worst case scenarios. If there is even a hint that Bill is coaching his last game in a Patriot uniform at home vs. the NYJ I fully expect a NE win by double digits comfortably. The coaching GOAT will not be tanking his last possible game.
Yes and undersells just how likely it is that they will win another game. All this SOS stuff is bordering on silly. CAR has a bit of a gauntlet left facing teams vying for playoff spots. The good is CAR has no incentive to tank, the bad is they are a terrible team.
I grabbed their games. What I see:
*2 games where they beat bad teams on last min field goals
*4 games where they could have at least forced overtime (Minny, Bears, Titans, Bucs)
*8 games where they were never that close
I think they could reasonably scratch out another win vs either Green Bay or Bucs, both at home. They nearly won against the Bucs only 3 weeks ago
Week 1 - Lost badly, 24-10 to Falcons
Week 2 - Lost 20-17 to Saints, but were down 20-9 til they scored with 1 min left, so not really close
Week 3 - Lost 37-27 to Seahawks but were never close
Week 4 - Lost 21-13 to Minny, but were down 21-13 and had 1st and goal with 2 mins left. 2 sacks and 2 incompletions later and it was over.
Week 5 - Lost 42-24 to Lions, blown out
Week 6 - Lost 42-21 to Dolphins, blown out
Week 8 - BEAT Texans 15-13 on last min field goal
Week 9 - Lost 27-13 to Colts, blown out
Week 10 - Lost 16-13 to Bears, missed a game-tying field goal with 90 seconds left (59 yarder, not a chip shot)
Week 11 - Lost 33-10 to Cowboys, blown out
Week 12 - Lost 17-10 to Titans, but had 4 chances to tie it...somewhat close
Week 13 - Lost 21-18 to Bucs, had the ball down 3 with 3:30 remaining, but a B Young INT sealed it.
Week 14 - Lost 28-6 to Saints, blown out
Week 15 - BEAT Falcons, 9-7 on last min field goal
They have only scored 20 or more 3 times and not since week 6. Very tough to win when you score less than 20 every game. They only beat ATL because of terrible ATL turnovers. They might find one more very fluky win because any given Sunday but it won't matter when NE beats NYJ at home week 17.
Is that the Patriots or the Panthers you’re referring to
agree with your point about the Jets. If by some chance the Pats don’t beat the Jets though, I do think there is a real chance of #1. I’m not writing it off just yet
Hoping for Lawrence to be out in two weeks when they play Carolina is probably wishful thinking, right?
NE has only scored 20 or more 3 times (and once was 20 exactly) and Carolina has scored more points this season. We're talking about the potential #1 pick. All these teams suck.
NE offense has been improving whereas CAR has been much worse, likely because they were over-reliant on Adam Theilen early in the season who should be collecting medicare benefits soon in NFL years. The odds of CAR winning more games than NE does the rest of the season are very small mostly because of week 17 at home vs. NYJ in what may very well be Bill's last game as HC. Bill isn't losing to the NYJ to end his tenure here.
Improving? I guess the last 2 weeks are. They’ve scored 51 over their last 5 which is below their season average.
I guess the 19 points over the last 2 weeks is improving---they're also averaging 66 yards rushing/game and less than 200 yards passing in those 2 games.
This weekend could be a defining slate of games for the next era of the Patriots franchise. They need to lose to Denver and have Arizona and the Jets win. That would put the Pats in great shape for #2 overall even with a week 18 win and keep them alive (long shot) for #1.
Washington is almost certain to lose their last 2, and we need them to get to 5 wins.
Washington is almost certain to lose their last 2, and we need them to get to 5 wins.
Don't you mean we need a Commanders win over the Jets this week? I agree WAS isn't winning either of their last two unless SF is resting everyone wk 18 which is possible. This week is certainly their best chance at a victory though.
Not sure where to put this, but I suppose this thread is as good as any because it is about how awful the Patriots are this season.
Just heard this depressing stat:
The Pats are one of two teams who have not had a 100 yard receiver or rusher in a game this season. No team has ever gone a whole season without at least one 100 yard receiver or rusher.
(The other team this year is the Packers.)
Just heard this depressing stat:
The Pats are one of two teams who have not had a 100 yard receiver or rusher in a game this season. No team has ever gone a whole season without at least one 100 yard receiver or rusher.
(The other team this year is the Packers.)
This looks like a stat they will flash on the TV screen early in the season finale against the Jets. After which Zeke rushes for 200 yards, causing the Pats to pull out the victory and their draft choice to drop to 6th.
I am actually surprised at this stat. There have been some truly awful teams.
But even awful teams had stars. Detroit DID have Barry and Megatron.
Patriots have absolutely nothing. Depressing indeed.
That’s been one of the really frustrating things about this Patriots team. Even awful teams most often have some young player to watch and get excited about for the future - or even a veteran to watch and celebrate their successes. The Pats have zero entertainment value. When Gonzalez and Judon were playing, maybe, but watching a game to see maybe one sack or a couple of passes defended is not very exciting. Having no exciting players at QB, RB, or WR makes for boring football on a team that doesn’t win
Also part of it likely is that RBs used to get way more carries and one guy got all of them.
Probably also a factor is that the defense is pretty good so we are rarely down 20+ after a quarter and throwing 45 times
So if New Orleans beats the Rams tonight, the Pats slip past Carolina in SOS, right? Go Saints. All-in on the first pick.
Week 16 - end Sat games (all three Thu/Sat games ended in CAR's favor)
2-12 CAR SOS .5167 (124-116 - ATLx2 (12-16), TBx2 (14-14), NOx2 (14-16), JAX (8-6), IND (8-6), TEN (5-9), HOU (8-6), MIA (10-4), MIN (7-7), DET (10-4), GB (6-8), CHI (5-9), DAL (10-4), SEA (7-7))
3-11 NE SOS .5226 (127-116 - NYJx2 (10-18), BUFx2 (18-12), MIAx2 (20-8), PHI (10-4), DAL (10-4), WAS (4-10), NYG (5-9), NO (7-8), LV (6-8), DEN (7-7), KC (9-5), LAC (5-10), IND (8-6), PIT (8-7))
Week 16 games of interest (excl obv ARI-CHI, GB-CAR & NE-DEN games)
Sun - IND-ATL, root for ATL win
Sun - WAS-NYJ, root for WAS win
Sun - CLE-HOU, root for HOU win
Sun - JAX-TB, root for TB win
Sun - DAL-MIA, root for DAL win
Sun - SEA-TEN & DET-MIN, no impact on SOS for CAR/NE
Mon - LV-KC & PHI-NYG & BAL-SF, no impact on SOS for CAR/NE
2-12 CAR SOS .5167 (124-116 - ATLx2 (12-16), TBx2 (14-14), NOx2 (14-16), JAX (8-6), IND (8-6), TEN (5-9), HOU (8-6), MIA (10-4), MIN (7-7), DET (10-4), GB (6-8), CHI (5-9), DAL (10-4), SEA (7-7))
3-11 NE SOS .5226 (127-116 - NYJx2 (10-18), BUFx2 (18-12), MIAx2 (20-8), PHI (10-4), DAL (10-4), WAS (4-10), NYG (5-9), NO (7-8), LV (6-8), DEN (7-7), KC (9-5), LAC (5-10), IND (8-6), PIT (8-7))
Week 16 games of interest (excl obv ARI-CHI, GB-CAR & NE-DEN games)
Sun - IND-ATL, root for ATL win
Sun - WAS-NYJ, root for WAS win
Sun - CLE-HOU, root for HOU win
Sun - JAX-TB, root for TB win
Sun - DAL-MIA, root for DAL win
Sun - SEA-TEN & DET-MIN, no impact on SOS for CAR/NE
Mon - LV-KC & PHI-NYG & BAL-SF, no impact on SOS for CAR/NE
Not a stretch to suggest this weekend could be a defining moment in the next era of the Pats. The difference between #2 and #5 overall could be the difference between getting or not getting a franchise altering QB.
Sun - IND-ATL, root for ATL win - ATLANTA LEADING AT THE HALF
Sun - WAS-NYJ, root for WAS win WAS LOSING AT THE HALF
Sun - CLE-HOU, root for HOU win HOU LOSING AT THE HALF
Sun - JAX-TB, root for TB win
Sun - DAL-MIA, root for DAL win
Panthers are so useless.