Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)

soxhop411

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Patriots' path to No. 2 pick:
One edge the Patriots hold in this "race" for the No. 2 pick is their head-to-head loss to the Commanders in Week 9. That would end up being a key tiebreaker if the teams finish with the same strength of schedule. All New England needs to do to clinch the second overall pick is to tie the Commanders' SOS.

Considering the same critical five games from the Commanders section just above, the Patriots can earn the second pick simply by losing themselves and having the Ravens and Texans win on Saturday and the Falcons win in the early window on Sunday. In fact, in that scenario, the Patriots wouldn't even have to wait for the results of Bears-Packers and Broncos-Raiders; no matter what happens in the latter two, the Patriots will be guaranteed to be tied or end up with the easier SOS than Washington, assuming the Commanders also lose.
There are other paths to No. 2 for New England if both the Patriots and Commanders lose on Sunday:
  • ATL beats NO & at least 2 of PIT, IND, GB & LV lose OR
  • All 4 of PIT, IND, GB & LV lose
https://www.nfl.com/news/2024-nfl-draft-no-2-overall-pick-scenarios-for-commanders-patriots-and-cardinals
 

j44thor

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Do we really think Bill is going to lose to NJY in his last potential game as HC. I don't think NYJ are going to show up, snow game and they have their own significant draft ramifications in play with a win. Ownership already said no changes to the FO/Coaching which is almost an implicit suggestion to tank at this time. I'm sure Rodgers is lobbying for them to tank and grab a top WR or T in the draft. Jets are locked into no worse than 8th with a L, a W and they could end up in 12th.
 

j44thor

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I'd like to know what NE's path to 5th spot is with a W. A lot of teams ahead of them in SOS but that can change quickly.
 

tims4wins

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j44thor

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Yeah I played around with the simulator, seems like an 80% or so chance they still pick 4th with a win. Only team that has picked lower is NYG and most scenarios they tie in SOS which gives NE 4th via H2H tiebreaker. Only once did NYG slip into 4th, NE 5th but I couldn't decipher what the key games were.
 

axx

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Yeah I played around with the simulator, seems like an 80% or so chance they still pick 4th with a win.
That was probably assuming the Ravens would win. They need two of Texans/GB/Raiders to finish ahead of the Giants.
 

j44thor

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That was probably assuming the Ravens would win. They need two of Texans/GB/Raiders to finish ahead of the Giants.
No Ravens loss is already baked into the simulator, perhaps I just got lucky the 10 or so times I got NE to win.
 

AB in DC

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That was probably assuming the Ravens would win. They need two of Texans/GB/Raiders to finish ahead of the Giants.
Now need one of GB and Raiders to win. Both are favored by 3 pts. Or Arizona (who's a 3pt underdog).

The 2 pick is now almost impossible, needing either Washington win / NE loss or a whole bunch of other games going our way.
 

Cellar-Door

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Now need one of GB and Raiders to win. Both are favored by 3 pts. Or Arizona (who's a 3pt underdog).

The 2 pick is now almost impossible, needing either Washington win / NE loss or a whole bunch of other games going our way.
2 is very possible still, coning into the week the easiest way was a loss, Saints loss Pit loss and INd loss.

With PIT winning but IND losing the path to #2 is now...
Lose to the Jets, NO loss and either of LV/GB loses.
 

AB in DC

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Wait, so if the Pats lose, we want GB/Raiders to LOSE (to help with Washington tiebreak)
but if the Pats win, we want GB/Raiders to WIN (to help with NYG tiebreak)?
 

Ferm Sheller

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This article from patriots.com says that the Pats could finish as low as 7th in draft order. I thought that we ruled out 6 and 7. Is the article wrong?

https://www.patriots.com/news/inactive-analysis-jabrill-peppers-returns-teammates-show-appreciation-for-slater

"As for their first-round draft pick, the Patriots could finish as high as second overall or as low as seventh overall, depending on results around the league. The Patriots pick will likely fall in the 3-5 range. But we won't know for sure until the conclusion of the Sunday slate, with the Bills and Dolphins playing for the AFC East title in Miami on Sunday night – we'll keep you updated."
 

tims4wins

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This article from patriots.com says that the Pats could finish as low as 7th in draft order. I thought that we ruled out 6 and 7. Is the article wrong?

https://www.patriots.com/news/inactive-analysis-jabrill-peppers-returns-teammates-show-appreciation-for-slater

"As for their first-round draft pick, the Patriots could finish as high as second overall or as low as seventh overall, depending on results around the league. The Patriots pick will likely fall in the 3-5 range. But we won't know for sure until the conclusion of the Sunday slate, with the Bills and Dolphins playing for the AFC East title in Miami on Sunday night – we'll keep you updated."
Yes.
 

Mystic Merlin

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This article from patriots.com says that the Pats could finish as low as 7th in draft order. I thought that we ruled out 6 and 7. Is the article wrong?

https://www.patriots.com/news/inactive-analysis-jabrill-peppers-returns-teammates-show-appreciation-for-slater

"As for their first-round draft pick, the Patriots could finish as high as second overall or as low as seventh overall, depending on results around the league. The Patriots pick will likely fall in the 3-5 range. But we won't know for sure until the conclusion of the Sunday slate, with the Bills and Dolphins playing for the AFC East title in Miami on Sunday night – we'll keep you updated."
They can’t finish below fifth due to the SOS math.
 

Caspir

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If it weren’t for our idiot kicker, we’d be locked into the second pick. Go Commanders!
 

amfox1

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End Week 18 Sun early games

4-12 WAS - vs. DAL 4:25p Sun
4-13 NE

If WAS wins, NE will have the #2 pick. If WAS loses, NE will have the #3 pick. ARI's result has no bearing.
 

Arroyoyo

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Dec 13, 2021
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Whether we get one of the top two QBs really is going to come down to how the Bears feel about Fields, isn’t it?
 

j44thor

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Whether we get one of the top two QBs really is going to come down to how the Bears feel about Fields, isn’t it?
Only if NE wants to give up a ransom to move up 2 spots. Caleb will almost certainly go #1 just depends on who picks there.
 

Ed Hillel

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We are legit in perfect position to deal with Chicago at this point, no matter the direction they go at QB.
 

Ed Hillel

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Only if NE wants to give up a ransom to move up 2 spots. Caleb will almost certainly go #1 just depends on who picks there.
I don’t think so, because I think they’ll covet MHJ if they keep Fields and nobody else can give them that.
 

Ed Hillel

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I can't wait to fire Bill give up or first next year in a trade with Chicago, have the defense regress and lose a top five pick in the 25 draft.
If it requires the 3 and a first next year, probably a no. But you need a QB, and if Williams turns into a top 10 QB, you deal with some regression on D if need be.
 

Arroyoyo

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I haven’t seen much of Daniels this year. Does anyone have anything they could point me to where he’s repeatedly connecting on outs/slants/check downs, etc (intermediate and short throws)? All of his YouTube reels are bombs or him outrunning the defense. He’s definitely a human highlight reel, just curious as to how complete of a quarterback he is.
 

cshea

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If it weren’t for our idiot kicker, we’d be locked into the second pick. Go Commanders!
The idiot kicker probably helped more than hurt the tank throughout the year. Made the Denver kick, missed the Giants kick, kick against Indy, etc.