Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)

[joe dokes]

At a minimum, it appears that the glowing reports about Mayo that were linked here pre-hiring were not inaccurate.
That he's self-assured enough not to project HARDASS, even though he might be one (or at least enough of one to hold others accountable) in private, says a lot, IMO. The football press laps up HARDASS, and mocks thoughtfulness (or treats it as weakness). Seems to me that Mayo has already left that crowd in the dust.

 

[lexrageorge]

I think we can put the speculation about a WR or OT to bed

View: https://twitter.com/mikekadlick/status/1747758593649074219

So, a kicker.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I felt remiss by not mentioning in my earlier post that Fields seems to be a model professional. There aren’t any leaks and “team sources” here comparing about Fields’ attitude ot work ethic. Everyone seems to really respect the guy and talk up his leadership, hard work, and dedication.

I think this an important piece of the puzzle because it suggests Fields has been working on his shortcomings and doing everything asked of him. So if an another team thinks they can fix Fields’ accuracy and pocket awareness issues, it’s either because his coaching has been bad so far (a possibility). If you think that he just isn’t up to NFL-caliber in these areas (also a possibility), then he just kind of is who he is until the punishment of running the ball saps that ability.

Unless you’re getting Fields for a 6th/7th round pick or signing him to a Baker Mayfield type deal, there’s just too much risk involved.

I will say his coaching has been horrendous. Every year they try to smash him into a system then partway through say "fuck it let him run" then he looks way better. You don't improve your QBs passing by making him pretend to be Tom Brady, run the early years Lamar offense, get him easy reads by making people terrified of his running.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

So, a kicker.

Who can kick either lefty or righty, depending on circumstances.

 

[lexrageorge]

My guess is that he’s been, and will continue to be, far more expansive than Bill in setting expectations for players and helping them understand their respective roles. And that is huge going forward.

I don’t think Bill had any issues with communicating with the players or setting expectations. He just didn’t expand upon much in his press interviews. When he’s been mic’ed up, he seems to be quite communicative with players.

 

[67YAZ]

I will say his coaching has been horrendous. Every year they try to smash him into a system then partway through say "fuck it let him run" then he looks way better. You don't improve your QBs passing by making him pretend to be Tom Brady, run the early years Lamar offense, get him easy reads by making people terrified of his running.

The rumblings here are that Eberflus wants to hop on the bandwagon and hire a “Shanahan guy” to bring that scheme in. I don’t know what quality candidates Eberflus is going to since he’s basically in a prove it or lose it year, but it will be yet another new system to learn.

Which will also be the case if Fields changes teams. And we don’t even know what the Pats’ system will be next season. To

 

[Cellar-Door]

The rumblings here are that Eberflus wants to hop on the bandwagon and hire a “Shanahan guy” to bring that scheme in. I don’t know what quality candidates Eberflus is going to since he’s basically in a prove it or lose it year, but it will be yet another new system to learn.

Which will also be the case if Fields changes teams. And we don’t even know what the Pats’ system will be next season. To

Oh I don't think NE should bring in Fields, I've mentioned it before. I just think it makes sense for a 3rd or something for one of the QB wasteland teams to grab him.

 

[67YAZ]

Oh I don't think NE should bring in Fields, I've mentioned it before. I just think it makes sense for a 3rd or something for one of the QB wasteland teams to grab him.

Ha, you’ve made that clear! But there seems to be a lot of folks floating around here that think Fields is a great, maybe preferable alternative if Williams isn’t available. As someone who has seen every Fields NFL game, I feel the need to throw cold water on that, for the Pats, at least.

But agree that Fields could be an interesting reclamation project for a team with a QB need and without a viable path to a high potential rookie QB.

 

[Dotrat]

I don’t think Bill had any issues with communicating with the players or setting expectations. He just didn’t expand upon much in his press interviews. When he’s been mic’ed up, he seems to be quite communicative with players.

I should have been more precise. I may well be wrong, but some of the reporting over the last few years suggested that Bill didn't like explaining the 'why' of assignments, though he was excellent at the 'what'. I get the impression that Mayo delights in both.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Ha, you’ve made that clear! But there seems to be a lot of folks floating around here that think Fields is a great, maybe preferable alternative if Williams isn’t available. As someone who has seen every Fields NFL game, I feel the need to throw cold water on that, for the Pats, at least.

But agree that Fields could be an interesting reclamation project for a team with a QB need and without a viable path to a high potential rookie QB.

I think most here know Fields’ limitations. But the QB options if the Pats go Harrison Jr. at #3 aren’t great so you’re basically talking risk vs. reward calculations. Do you throw a 3rd or 4th at Fields? Sign Wilson if he’s cut? Bank on a Nix type as a rookie?

Fields is at least worth consideration although I still think the Pats are going QB at 3.

 

[Pandemonium67]

Could Fields be a Taysom Hill kind of player? Not that I'd want him on the Pats, especially at the salary he'll get.

I want a QB that will take the Pats O into the space age, and playoffs, for the next 10 years.

 

[nighthob]

I want a QB that will take the Pats O into the space age, and playoffs, for the next 10 years.

You’re probably out of luck. Look at the list of the top 15 QBs in the game. A lot of them are on the young side for QBs. If the guy the Pats get at #3 can reach average, they’ve won the lotto.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

I know they need a QB badly. I still wish there was a way to draft MHJ and get a QB that is actually good that is useable in 2024.

 

[Jo_Co]

Not to speak for Arroyoyo but the McCarthy meditation sessions for all to see on the field give Russell Wilson vibes.

Of course Russ produced on the field, at least in Seattle, and we’d all be thrilled to have this next draft selection turn out to be the next Russell Wilson. But as a whole, it’s not like you’ll find many teammates that would describe RW as beloved

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

If a QB runs down the length of the sideline during introductions screaming "LETS'S F*****NG GO!!!!" does that take away from the other players? Make them feel less important, because all the cameras are focused on that QB? That QB, hypothetical of course, would know that all cameras would be on him (or her) . But if it is part of his/her pregame ritual-- where is the line drawn?

 

[j-man]

IF Claeb williams wants u and the bears keep fields i can see this

NE gets c williams
CHI gets 3 2nd 24 3rd 24 1 25 2 25 1st 26

if the falcons do not hire bill
ATL gets qb mac jones ne gets 3rd 24 atl 2nd 25 if jones started 17 games if not 3rd 25

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

IF Claeb williams wants u and the bears keep fields i can see this

NE gets c williams
CHI gets 3 2nd 24 3rd 24 1 25 2 25 1st 26

if the falcons do not hire bill
ATL gets qb mac jones ne gets 3rd 24 atl 2nd 25 if jones started 17 games if not 3rd 25

@j-man That seems like a huge overpay for C Williams... But I am looking at it from a fan point of view-- is that something that lines up in scenarios?

 

[BaseballJones]

That would be an absolutely outrageous overpay by New England. Giving up two future firsts, two future seconds, and a third, plus the #3 pick in 2024, just to move up two spots and get the #1? No way.

 

[Cellar-Door]

IF Claeb williams wants u and the bears keep fields i can see this

NE gets c williams
CHI gets 3 2nd 24 3rd 24 1 25 2 25 1st 26

Yeah that's WAY more than anyone has gotten in that kind of tradeup.

As an example, last year was one of the heaviest hauls ever, and even that was... #9, #61, a 1st a year out, a 2nd two years out and DJ Moore.

Looking at smaller tradedowns...
2001, 1 for 5, 67 and a future 2nd

Only other #1 overall traded in the last 20 years was 2016, #1, #113 and a future 6th for 15, 43, 45, 76, future 1st, future 3rd.

THe huge hauls only come for big trades back.

Looking at small trades up into the top 3....

2018- #3 for #6, 37, 49 future 2nd.

AND probably the closest on point (two picks top 3, trading up for a QB).....
2017- #2 for #3, #67, #111 and a future 3rd.

 

[twibnotes]

Not to speak for Arroyoyo but the McCarthy meditation sessions for all to see on the field give Russell Wilson vibes.

Of course Russ produced on the field, at least in Seattle, and we’d all be thrilled to have this next draft selection turn out to be the next Russell Wilson. But as a whole, it’s not like you’ll find many teammates that would describe RW as beloved

JJ McCarthy is NOTHING like Russell Wilson. He may be a bad choice but it won’t be bc of character or being selfish.

View: https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1742006154325119221?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1742006154325119221%7Ctwgr%5E7d6603c2d4107f35310f367540f65a114ce7ac6c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.si.com%2Fcollege%2F2024%2F01%2F02%2Fmichigan-jj-mccarthy-sweet-moment-high-school-teammate-alabama-rose-bowl


https://www.michigandaily.com/sports/football/j-j-mccarthys-leadership-grows-alongside-michigans-passing-game/

 

[j-man]

@j-man That seems like a huge overpay for C Williams... But I am looking at it from a fan point of view-- is that something that lines up in scenarios?

if williams is mahomes life it works out and with mrkraft in his 80's if he had brady first 5 years he wouild give him a pierce

if u make the playoffs the 25 and 26 is in the mid 20's

 

[j-man]

JJ McCarthy is NOTHING like Russell Wilson. He may be a bad choice but it won’t be bc of character or being selfish.

View: https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1742006154325119221?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1742006154325119221%7Ctwgr%5E7d6603c2d4107f35310f367540f65a114ce7ac6c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.si.com%2Fcollege%2F2024%2F01%2F02%2Fmichigan-jj-mccarthy-sweet-moment-high-school-teammate-alabama-rose-bowl


https://www.michigandaily.com/sports/football/j-j-mccarthys-leadership-grows-alongside-michigans-passing-game/

if payton likes him ex him in denver at 12

 

[Cellar-Door]

I assume the blowback on the meditation thing is mostly that it doesn't fit into the brutish, hypermasculine stereotypes of football players of old, where other, far more aggressively attention seeking or detrimental to the team behaviors do and are celebrated for it. Which is probably one reason he's open to discussing it. I like McCarthy MORE because he's an advocate for mental health in a sport that desperately needs it.

 

[snowmanny]

Could Fields be a Taysom Hill kind of player? Not that I'd want him on the Pats, especially at the salary he'll get.

I want a QB that will take the Pats O into the space age, and playoffs, for the next 10 years.

If you want a running quarterback, that’s who you’re likely going to get.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I assume the blowback on the meditation thing is mostly that it doesn't fit into the brutish, hypermasculine stereotypes of football players of old, where other, far more aggressively attention seeking or detrimental to the team behaviors do and are celebrated for it. Which is probably one reason he's open to discussing it. I like McCarthy MORE because he's an advocate for mental health in a sport that desperately needs it.

Yeah, if he was running out of the tunnel pulling the Ray Lewis dance/dog pound routine nobody would say he’s not a team player/is unduly calling attention to himself.

View: https://youtu.be/BMnc_I1RHcA?si=PBBZCHqpPak-1P8u


Obligatory ‘ARE THE DOGS IN THE HOUSE…WOOFWOOWOOFWOOF’

 

[nighthob]

That would be an absolutely outrageous overpay by New England. Giving up two future firsts, two future seconds, and a third, plus the #3 pick in 2024, just to move up two spots and get the #1? No way.

Thing is, in five years if you were to tell me that JJ McCarthy was the second best QB from this draft, I’d shrug. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least. If in five years you were to tell me that Maye or Daniels were, I actually would be. Williams is a sure thing, the rest are huge gambles. If you’re gambling on Maye or Daniels, you’d better have Plan B waiting in the wings.

 

[twibnotes]

Thing is, in five years if you were to tell me that JJ McCarthy was the second best QB from this draft, I’d shrug. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least. If in five years you were to tell me that Maye or Daniels were, I actually would be. Williams is a sure thing, the rest are huge gambles. If you’re gambling on Maye or Daniel’s, you’d better have Plan B waiting in the wings.

I agree williams is very much in his own class - I’d love to have the first pick

 

[BaseballJones]

Thing is, in five years if you were to tell me that JJ McCarthy was the second best QB from this draft, I’d shrug. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least. If in five years you were to tell me that Maye or Daniels were, I actually would be. Williams is a sure thing, the rest are huge gambles. If you’re gambling on Maye or Daniel’s, you’d better have Plan B waiting in the wings.

How do you know Williams is a sure thing?

If you trade away the first, second, and third round picks in 2024, plus the first two picks in 2025, plus the first pick in 2026, just to pick Williams instead of Maye or Daniels, you'd better be right, because if you're wrong, you've got no ammo to correct that mistake or get him help through the draft until 2027.

 

[nighthob]

How do you know Williams is a sure thing?

If you trade away the first, second, and third round picks in 2024, plus the first two picks in 2025, plus the first pick in 2026, just to pick Williams instead of Maye or Daniels, you'd better be right, because if you're wrong, you've got no ammo to correct that mistake or get him help through the draft until 2027.

I’m not saying that I’d make the deal that j-man outlined. I’m saying that if I’m betting the future of the franchise, I feel comfortable putting the chits on Williams. If it’s Maye or Daniels? I’d feel better about trading down for more picks.

 

[jsinger121]

Thing is, in five years if you were to tell me that JJ McCarthy was the second best QB from this draft, I’d shrug. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least. If in five years you were to tell me that Maye or Daniels were, I actually would be. Williams is a sure thing, the rest are huge gambles. If you’re gambling on Maye or Daniels, you’d better have Plan B waiting in the wings.

Just like Trevor Lawrence was supposed to be a sure thing. He hasn't looked anything close to a Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. There are tons of red flags for Caleb Williams.

 

[chilidawg]

I think most here know Fields’ limitations. But the QB options if the Pats go Harrison Jr. at #3 aren’t great so you’re basically talking risk vs. reward calculations. Do you throw a 3rd or 4th at Fields? Sign Wilson if he’s cut? Bank on a Nix type as a rookie?

Zappe says I got this.

 

[jtn46]

I will say his coaching has been horrendous. Every year they try to smash him into a system then partway through say "fuck it let him run" then he looks way better. You don't improve your QBs passing by making him pretend to be Tom Brady, run the early years Lamar offense, get him easy reads by making people terrified of his running.

To be fair, he is getting creamed as a runner. He gets hurt a lot. Some of that may be a bad combination of a poor OL and how long he holds the ball that lead to him taking a ton of sacks but some of it is from running. Bears may have guessed that emphasizing his passing wasn’t likely to work but if it did they would have an elite player once they cut him loose so they gave it a shot.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Thing is, in five years if you were to tell me that JJ McCarthy was the second best QB from this draft, I’d shrug. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least. If in five years you were to tell me that Maye or Daniels were, I actually would be. Williams is a sure thing, the rest are huge gambles. If you’re gambling on Maye or Daniels, you’d better have Plan B waiting in the wings.

to me I think there are 4 QBs that I wouldn't be surprised if they were the 2nd best QB (maybe even best) in the class. On the other hand if you asked me to put a big bet on who would be starting caliber QB in the NFL... I'd have 3 guys with short odds, and they're likely all going top 3. I actually think McCarthy ends up QB 4 and goes top 15. He's just too high upside, too young not to, he's gonna have a good pro-day, get in the room and wow somebody.

 

[The Social Chair]

Just like Trevor Lawrence was supposed to be a sure thing. He hasn't looked anything close to a Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. There are tons of red flags for Caleb Williams.

Trevor Lawrence was bad his rookie year (with an all time bad coach) and he was still better than rookie year Manning. He was great his 2nd year. Last year was a step back but he did have arguably the worst offensive line in football.


What are the red flags on Williams? He holds the ball too long, throws off his back foot too much, and he's a little small. That's it.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

The amazing thing about @Arroyoyo 's argument, is that if the Mich QB had cultivated a zen garden away from any distractions and meditated there, it also would have been a story line.

 

[AB in DC]

I know they need a QB badly. I still wish there was a way to draft MHJ and get a QB that is actually good that is useable in 2024.

Kirk Cousins is "usable". Is that what you're going for?

 

[nighthob]

Just like Trevor Lawrence was supposed to be a sure thing. He hasn't looked anything close to a Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. There are tons of red flags for Caleb Williams.

Trevor Lawrence is a pretty good QB. The chance that you’re drafting a top 5 QB even if you’re drafting the best QB at 1/1 are pretty remote, because guys that good tend to last. Pat Mahomes isn’t going anywhere for a while, so Caleb Williams odds of being an MVP level QB are low. But I can see him as a top 15 one. The others? Not so much.

 

[Bowser]

What are the red flags on Williams? He holds the ball too long, throws off his back foot too much, and he's a little small. That's it.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

There's also the report that he's looking for a minority ownership stake in the team that drafts him.

Here's an article by a former Jets scout on Williams. One man's opinion, sure, but not very complimentary. Key takeaway: Williams' NFL comp is Zach Wilson.

 

[DJnVa]

Here's an article by a former Jets scout on Williams. One man's opinion, sure, but not very complimentary. Key takeaway: Williams' NFL comp is Zach Wilson.

His QB rankings:

1st round:
1-Rattler (others have 3rd-4th round)
2-Penix
3-Milton (others have 4th-6th round)
4-Nix
5-Maye

3rd round:
6-Daniels

4th round:
7-Williams

5th round:
8-McCarthy

I mean, okay.

 

[67YAZ]

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

There's also the report that he's looking for a minority ownership stake in the team that drafts him.

Here's an article by a former Jets scout on Williams. One man's opinion, sure, but not very complimentary. Key takeaway: Williams' NFL comp is Zach Wilson.

That blog has an interesting, anti-public-consensus take on the QBs. They got me asking, is Spencer Rattler the guy to target?

 

[tims4wins]

That guy is going to look very smart or very dumb within 10 months or so

 

[DJnVa]

That guy is going to look very smart or very dumb within 10 months or so

That guy appears to be very old school--worked with the Jets when Parcells and BB were there.

What's in his eyes is what separates him. He has fire and ice in his eyes that I love. Rattler has the biggest 'chip on his shoulder.' I value the 'chip'.

 

[Cellar-Door]

That guy is going to look very smart or very dumb within 10 months or so

He always looks dumb on QB evaluation. His QB 3 last year was Malik Cunningham, who he had as a 1st rounder. He also said Richardson reminded him of Taysom Hill and wasn't a QB.

Also he's obsessed with time to throw, outside of any context, which is bizarre.
He also loves to call his takes "shocking" then throw out dumb shit for clicks.

 

[tims4wins]

View: https://twitter.com/RochieWBZ/status/1747994710851875272

 

[DJnVa]

View: https://twitter.com/RochieWBZ/status/1747994710851875272

I'm not 100% on this train. I mean, I want them to draft a QB, but I think that Mayo is just saying that the guy they draft will play an important position. Because if he didn't they wouldn't be drafting him at #3.

 

[Curt S Loew]

View: https://twitter.com/RochieWBZ/status/1747994710851875272

Yeah. Or not.

 

[ZMart100]

What are the red flags on Williams? He holds the ball too long, throws off his back foot too much, and he's a little small. That's it.

From what little I've seen, I think he gambles too much. Maybe he's Favre 2.0 and you can live with it, but the step up worries me.

 

[j44thor]

While I'd love to see NE find a way to grab a top QB and WR like MHJ, Nabers or Odunze I just don't see it as possible. There is however a player that might drop to the mid-high teens that is considered generational and arguably would fit the NE offense better than even MHJ.
https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-why-brock-bowers-is-the-greatest-tight-end-in-college-football-history

Brock Bowers was recently mocked to CIN at 18 in SI and most mocks have him outside the top 10 but inside the top 20. He would be my trade up target if he makes it to say SEA at 16 which I think is probably the closest NE can move up without giving up next years 1 which shouldn't be on the table whatsoever.
Quite simply Brock is the perfect prospect, set every TE record for PFF over the last 10yrs and not only has the offensive production and analytics but is also considered one of the best blocking TEs to come out in the last decade (one of only 14 to score 75+ rating on both PB and RB since 2014, when PFF started tracking college).

What I would love to see happen is NE trade with AZ to move back one spot in exchange for AZ 2nd 35, AZ is loaded with picks so should be motivated to ensure they come away with MHJ assuming he is their target. NE then packages their 2nd and 35 to SEA for 16th to select Bowers assuming he is still there or a T or best WR available. SEA should be motivated to make that trade as they have no 2nd rd pick and are in tough cap shape so need all the cheap assets they can acquire.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I’d be shocked if Bowers drops into the range where a trade up made sense

I also don’t think AZ is going to be motivated to move up one slot

But in a world where the Pats are going to trade down, still get a QB and then trade up, it probably makes more sense for Mims, Guyton (smaller move more likely) or Odunze/Nabers if one of them miraculously slides

 

[ShaneTrot]

Look at the divisional-round QBs, Lamar, Stroud, Mahomes, and Allen. If you don't have a superstar QB, you don't have a shot in the modern NFL unless a Nick Foles pulls a playoff run out of his ass. Draft the best QB and develop him. Easier said than done.