Fields and Jones are both pretty worthless. I can't imagine that a change of scenery swap would involve high draft picks.
Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
Fields with the Lamar level rushing floor upside he's already established isn't really comparable to Jones at all imo. I think you are also greatly under-selling the potential appeal a 25yo Fields would still have to QB needy teams not in primed position to draft QB. Especially considering the current state in 2023 of what essentially amounts to "average level NFL QB production, and when Fields hasn't bottomed out to the point you have to overly-squint to see a potential productive player if/when paired with the right OC.
My best guess would be the Bears keep him and hire a new OC. Then take whatever the best massive haul is there between a brand new owner in Washington desperately wanting to put their new turn-the-page stamp on the team (this is the less likely trade down twice and REALLY get a massive haul possibility lol), or a LV team that will be sitting fairly pretty with 2 immediate top 10'ish picks to offer after they get done fleecing the Jets on the "Rodgers wants/needs Davante" trade. Regardless though I can't see any scenario where you can drop out of the top 4 pick slots this year and still get a top 3 QB. Not with teams like the Giants and Falcons also hovering around so close to being in the harmless trade down possibility mix.
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Odunze is probably going top 10, but your point stands that they could get a good WR prospect in the 25-40 range
that said, if you like a QB enough to take him mid 1st, you should just take him and not trade down.
They are and it wouldn't. You're looking at it backwards. They are throw-ins in a draft day trade for CHI to move up to 4 to get Harrison or Alt after CHI picks its choice of QB at 1.
I don’t think you’d have to move up for Alt. He might end up being the 3rd, possibly 4th tackle off the board in the 8-12 range.
Fields seems like he’d have more value than a “throw in”. He’s not great, or even good, but he’s looked very good when targeting Moore. I could see a team with good WR’s and a creative offensive mind thinking that Fields on a short financial commitment is an upgrade over say Derek Carr, Des Ridder, Kenny Pickett, Aidan OConnell, etc. He should be able to fetch a low 3rd or something like that.
Free agency is going to be a wasteland if you want any sort of upgrade at QB other than Cousins. The next best option would be maybe Mayfield if you think Tampa won’t franchise tag him or if you think his hot streak this year is more indicative of his future than his previous body of work of mediocre to poor results. A guy like Fields is one of the few “may be better with change of scenery” options out there and he’s shown enough for someone to take more of a chance on him than a “throw in”
you can make that same argument at any position to justify never needing a high draft pick.
the thing a lot of people seem to be overlooking is that if you’re drafting 2nd or 3rd, you “know” how the board will play out. Not only are you more likely to get a premium player, but the number of external variables and different permutations are very limited.
Even if there is a 20% chance one of the non premium QB prospects will end up a franchise QB, the odds that guy is available decrease every pick made between your picks. Even if you could identify the guy most likely to succeed, you have to hope there isn’t a run on QB, someone doesn’t take him earlier than you project or someone is willing to trade with you to ensure you get him.
Nothing is off the table because the Pats can always trade up if they think the QB is worth it, and it's still likely only a few spots. Or they can target Daniels, McCarthy, etc. who are likely to be outside the top 5. The costs and what they can control have changed, but not to the point they can't still get what they need.
With the team in need of so much on the offensive side of the ball, I really hate to see them have to trade up. It's one thing to take a chance with your own pick on a QB - sure they are busts quite often - it's another thing if you lose out on another 1-2 good players because you chose that QB.
All true but they lose a lot of control if they fall much further. At #2, they could have had their choice of Maye/Daniels without having to give anything up.
Trading up is wildly expensive in short term assets though, and the Pats are so deficient on the offensive side of the ball that they need every premium pick they can get. Remember last year's trade-ups:
Houston receives: 2023 No. 3 overall, No. 105 overall.
Houston trades: 2023 No. 12 and No. 33 selections in 2023, 2024 first-round and third-round picks.
- that's 3 premium picks for 1. Houston obviously improved significantly, but they had other premium picks to make that paid off.
Carolina receives: 2023 No. 1 overall.
Carolina trades: 2023 No. 9 and No. 61, 2024 first-round pick in 2024, 2025 second-round pick in 2025, and WR D.J. Moore.
- that's 4 premium picks for 1, and Moore is better than any Pats WR, so you'd have to assume a similar trade would take Demario Douglas in value. Carolina obviously didn't improve, and are likely to be trash for a couple more years too.
I don't see BB or any other exec looking at the Pats offense and saying one guy fixes it, so trading up doesn't make sense. The wins here send us into looking at OT and TE, and trying to get Brissett or Minshew in 2024.
If they've been reading this forum or listening to sports talk radio. who could blame them. Best run in the salary cap era by a lot, and a significant, vocal number of fans hate their guts.
Are people actually mad at the team? This year’s been kinda funny. And, it’s oddly relaxing not to have to do Super Bowl or bust every year.
End Week 16
2-13 CAR SOS .5216 (133-122 - ATLx2 (14-16), TBx2 (16-14), NOx2 (14-16), JAX (8-7), IND (8-7), TEN (5-10), HOU (8-7), MIA (11-4), MIN (7-8), DET (11-4), GB (7-8), CHI (6-9), DAL (10-5), SEA (8-7))
3-12 ARI SOS .5608 (143-112 - SFx2 (22-8), LARx2 (16-14), SEAx2 (16-14), BAL (12-3), CLE (10-5), CIN (8-7), PIT (8-7), TEX (8-7), PHI (11-4), DAL (10-5), WAS (4-11), NYG (5-10), ATL (7-8), CHI (6-9)
4-11 WAS SOS .5176 (132-123 - DALx2 (20-10), PHIx2 (22-8), NYGx2 (10-20), MIA (11-4), BUF (9-6), NYJ (6-9), NE (4-11), DEN (7-8), ARI (3-12), SF (11-4) LAR (8-7), SEA (8-7), CHI (6-9), ATL (7-8)
4-11 NE SOS .5216 (133-122 - NYJx2 (12-18), BUFx2 (18-12), MIAx2 (22-8), PHI (11-4), DAL (10-5), WAS (4-11), NYG (5-10), NO (7-8), LV (7-8), DEN (7-8), KC (9-6), LAC (5-10), IND (8-7), PIT (8-7))
Week 17 games (WAS/NE SOS impact, excl ARI-PHI*, CAR-JAX**, NE-BUF and WAS-SF games)
NYJ-CLE (Thu) - root for CLE
DAL-DET (Sat) - root for DAL
NO-TB (Sun) - root for TB
MIA-BAL (Sun) - root for BAL
PIT-SEA (Sun) - root for SEA
LAC-DEN (Sun) - root for DEN
CIN-KC (Sun) - root for CIN
ATL-CHI, LV-IND, LAR-NYG, TEN-HOU, GB-MIN (Sun) - no impact
* game has no impact on relative SOS but an unlikely ARI win pushes ARI to 4 if WAS & NE lose their games
** game has no impact on relative SOS but if CAR wins both remaining games, then it may impact draft slots with WAS/NE if they lose out
A NE win and a NYG loss would likely push NE down to 5, based on SOS.
2-13 CAR SOS .5216 (133-122 - ATLx2 (14-16), TBx2 (16-14), NOx2 (14-16), JAX (8-7), IND (8-7), TEN (5-10), HOU (8-7), MIA (11-4), MIN (7-8), DET (11-4), GB (7-8), CHI (6-9), DAL (10-5), SEA (8-7))
3-12 ARI SOS .5608 (143-112 - SFx2 (22-8), LARx2 (16-14), SEAx2 (16-14), BAL (12-3), CLE (10-5), CIN (8-7), PIT (8-7), TEX (8-7), PHI (11-4), DAL (10-5), WAS (4-11), NYG (5-10), ATL (7-8), CHI (6-9)
4-11 WAS SOS .5176 (132-123 - DALx2 (20-10), PHIx2 (22-8), NYGx2 (10-20), MIA (11-4), BUF (9-6), NYJ (6-9), NE (4-11), DEN (7-8), ARI (3-12), SF (11-4) LAR (8-7), SEA (8-7), CHI (6-9), ATL (7-8)
4-11 NE SOS .5216 (133-122 - NYJx2 (12-18), BUFx2 (18-12), MIAx2 (22-8), PHI (11-4), DAL (10-5), WAS (4-11), NYG (5-10), NO (7-8), LV (7-8), DEN (7-8), KC (9-6), LAC (5-10), IND (8-7), PIT (8-7))
Week 17 games (WAS/NE SOS impact, excl ARI-PHI*, CAR-JAX**, NE-BUF and WAS-SF games)
NYJ-CLE (Thu) - root for CLE
DAL-DET (Sat) - root for DAL
NO-TB (Sun) - root for TB
MIA-BAL (Sun) - root for BAL
PIT-SEA (Sun) - root for SEA
LAC-DEN (Sun) - root for DEN
CIN-KC (Sun) - root for CIN
ATL-CHI, LV-IND, LAR-NYG, TEN-HOU, GB-MIN (Sun) - no impact
* game has no impact on relative SOS but an unlikely ARI win pushes ARI to 4 if WAS & NE lose their games
** game has no impact on relative SOS but if CAR wins both remaining games, then it may impact draft slots with WAS/NE if they lose out
A NE win and a NYG loss would likely push NE down to 5, based on SOS.
Fans hate the current players (99% of which had nothing to do with the dynasty to begin with)?
Sitting at #4, here's SI's latest mock draft:
1. Chi (from Car): QB Williams
2. Ari: WR Harrison
3. Was: QB Maye
4. NE: QB Daniels
5. NYG: OT Fashanu
6. LAC: TE Bowers
7. Ten: OT Alt
8. Chi: Edge Turner
9. NYJ: WR Nabers
10. Atl: WR Odunze
The more I look at Daniels, the more I see an elite multi-purpose threat at QB. He's got good size at 6'3", but he's a little light at 185. I'd like to see him add 15 pounds. But good size. Look at these stats this year:
236-327 (72.2%), 3,812 yds, 11.7 y/a, 40 td, 4 int, 135 rushes, 1,134 yds, 8.4 y/a, 10 td
So he's been responsible for 50 touchdowns against only 4 interceptions. I know he's got elite receivers in Nabers and Thomas, but he's also going up against great teams in the SEC. They lost 3 times this year - to FSU (elite defense), Ole Miss, and Alabama.
- vs. FSU: 22-37, 346 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 15 rushes, 64 yds, 24 points scored against an elite defense
- vs. Ole Miss: 27-36, 414 yds, 4 td, 0 int, 15 rushes, 99 yds, 1 td, 49 points scored
- vs Alabama: 15-24, 219 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 11 rushes, 163 yds, 1 td, 28 points scored
So in these three losses he still managed to average 33.7 points a game and put up good stats on the whole.
Anyway, long story short, there's a very real chance that Daniels is every bit as good as Maye or Williams when it comes to being an NFL prospect, and it looks like the Pats would have a real shot at him at #4, maybe even #5.
1. Chi (from Car): QB Williams
2. Ari: WR Harrison
3. Was: QB Maye
4. NE: QB Daniels
5. NYG: OT Fashanu
6. LAC: TE Bowers
7. Ten: OT Alt
8. Chi: Edge Turner
9. NYJ: WR Nabers
10. Atl: WR Odunze
The more I look at Daniels, the more I see an elite multi-purpose threat at QB. He's got good size at 6'3", but he's a little light at 185. I'd like to see him add 15 pounds. But good size. Look at these stats this year:
236-327 (72.2%), 3,812 yds, 11.7 y/a, 40 td, 4 int, 135 rushes, 1,134 yds, 8.4 y/a, 10 td
So he's been responsible for 50 touchdowns against only 4 interceptions. I know he's got elite receivers in Nabers and Thomas, but he's also going up against great teams in the SEC. They lost 3 times this year - to FSU (elite defense), Ole Miss, and Alabama.
- vs. FSU: 22-37, 346 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 15 rushes, 64 yds, 24 points scored against an elite defense
- vs. Ole Miss: 27-36, 414 yds, 4 td, 0 int, 15 rushes, 99 yds, 1 td, 49 points scored
- vs Alabama: 15-24, 219 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 11 rushes, 163 yds, 1 td, 28 points scored
So in these three losses he still managed to average 33.7 points a game and put up good stats on the whole.
Anyway, long story short, there's a very real chance that Daniels is every bit as good as Maye or Williams when it comes to being an NFL prospect, and it looks like the Pats would have a real shot at him at #4, maybe even #5.
I’d be perfectly fine with Daniels. My fear is that he overtakes Maye at some point during the process. I’m also really concerned about a Jets game win, which would really hurt.
Ultimately, there are a lot of guys in this draft I like. Nabers is really good so I’d take him at 6/7, if they continue to fall. Fashanu and Alt would immediately be a huge help to the OL as well and either one would be fine with me in a similar situation.
Just is too bad they seemingly blew #2 because you could have potentially picked your non-Caleb QB or traded down, gotten a guy like Fashanu/Nabers AND extra picks to move back into Round 1, if needed.
If they end up with a pick in the 6-8 range I could see a scenario whereby they get a QB and WR in free agency/pre draft trade (Fields, Cousins, Evans) and target Tackle in round 1.
I could see them going best player on the board at R2 and that could be a defensive player.
Retaining Henry and targeting a round 3 TE would make sense too.
I could see them going best player on the board at R2 and that could be a defensive player.
Retaining Henry and targeting a round 3 TE would make sense too.
Four “elites” in one post. Eventually this word will lose meaning and popularity, right?
They may be as well. Feels like a general cutoff at 5
Caleb
Maye
Jayden
Harrison
Fashanu
Any one of those guys would likely be a big upgrade over what we have and I’d probably be ok with any of them.
After that, you have Nabers, Bowers, Alt who would, too, likely be big upgrades. So, for me, the loss of draft position is mostly just around losing draft capital that we need for depth building purposes. But not a huge issue if you nail this first pick.
It does stack up throughout the draft. Not only are you dropping from #2 to #5, say, but now you're also dropping from #34 to # 37, and from #66 to #69. Might not mean much, but it might mean losing out on a guy you want down the line in the draft.
What is the current situation with Trent Brown? #1 - do we think he's on the team next year? He's a free agent, and seems like he's been griping quite a bit - which I'm sure doesn't endear him to BB. #2 - what's the current thinking on good he even is? He missed 4 games this season, and it seems like there have been some games where he was perceived to be good - but I feel like there were some games earlier in the season where he seemed like a turnstile. I'm no judge of LT play, by any means.
If we're unlucky enough to not get a shot at one of the top 3 QBs, the question I have is do we invest in a WR (given the absymal state of our WR corps), or LT (or just try and resign Brown), or do you really go for a TE? Just seems really high to draft a TE in the top 7-8 or whatever.
If we're unlucky enough to not get a shot at one of the top 3 QBs, the question I have is do we invest in a WR (given the absymal state of our WR corps), or LT (or just try and resign Brown), or do you really go for a TE? Just seems really high to draft a TE in the top 7-8 or whatever.
Not sure Brown is "griping"; media narratives tend to overstate. He did miss some training camp practices until he got a bonus added to his contract, but he has been fairly quiet since. He's been dealing with several injuries; even Bill said he has played through a number of difficult injuries. There were some media bleatings when he was listed as out for the Germany game due to personal issues, but Brown clarified that later. He has been ranked consistently in the upper half of left tackles this season, which seems right (ignoring the one singular data point that had him ranked higher than the "other" Trent).
So, he's a good yet not great LT when healthy. The qualifier is a concern, as he will be 31 next season and unclear that the Pats (either Bill or hypothetical new GM) will invest a lot of money in him going forward. Health doesn't usually improve when a player gets older, yet Brown will rightfully figure that this will be his last chance at a big payday.
EDIT: I would hope the Pats do better than draft a tight end with a top 10 pick; would be a total waste of draft capital for this team.
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PFF has Brown with an 80.3 grade, he was in their top 10 but now is below the the snap minimum.
He's a really good tackle when healthy.
I would guess Bill (if he's here) does what he did the last couple times.. Make Trent a reasonable but not top of the league offer, if someone wants to pay him more he will leave.
An OT and Minshew is at best a small upgrade over Brown and Zappe. If you have a top 10 pick, you need a significant upgrade to your offense. Joe Alt and Gardner Minshew are probably worth, what, 1 win over Brown and Zappe?
If they’re out of range for a franchise QB, their best bet is to go WR with Nabers or Odunze and re-sign Brown and Onwenu. Or try for a different LT in free agency (not much out there)
the two positions trading premium draft capital for are QB and perhaps true elite WR (Jefferson, Chase, AJ Brown types).
if “all” it takes the Pats to get a true franchise QB prospect is 2024/2025 1st round picks and a 2nd (plus throw in non-premium picks) you do it without blinking.
The availability of high end QB’s in free agency is basically 0. The availability of guys you could make a meaningful playoff run with is approaching 0. Kirk Cousins is basically the only guy out there this year or in the foreseeable future who can get the Pats on track to be a contender.
the only way to get a franchise QB is to get lucky in the draft which could take literal decades before you hit, get lucky to have a top pick in a QB prospect heavy draft, or trade for one. Good veteran QB’s are very rarely available by trade and almost never worth it. So trading up in the draft to get your young guy of the future, or at least take that shot, is a lot better use of draft capital than drafting lots of other positions and never contending because you don’t have a QB
Even taking into account @Garshaparra's data in post #911, that seems a rather rich price to pay to jump two slots with a trading partner (I'm assuming AZ) who presumably won't want to drop very far so they can still get a Harrison or top shelf tackle. I guess you do it, but they're totally fucked if Maye or Daniels turn out to be the next Sanchize and not the second coming of Josh Allen.
If they draft fourth, which I think they will, then they have a clear path to one of the top 3 QBs or Harrison Jr. I'm perfectly fine with either. Harrison is a great pick if Williams, Maye and Daniels are gone. Even if it means another year of Zappe or some FA cast off with some late round developmental kid. It's back to the old formula of an elite defense carrying a passable at worst offense. Which they arguably won two superbowls doing before Brady really became GOAT BRADY.
I think it was Reiss talking about this today on 98.5. Basically said Brown is a perfect fit for the Patriots. He’s a Top 10 tackle when healthy/trying. He’s a pain in the ass so he’ll never get top 10 money so the pats are happy to pay top 15-20 tackle money and deal with his bullshit because he’s still a value.
I think their best case draft position is 4th at this point, I expect them to be drafting 5-7th at the end of the season.
Assuming Bill is making the pick I think he gives strong consideration to Brock Bowers in the 6-7th spot. He has continued to attempt to build a TE centric offense and Bowers is just the TE that could actually make that work.
Assuming Bill is making the pick I think he gives strong consideration to Brock Bowers in the 6-7th spot. He has continued to attempt to build a TE centric offense and Bowers is just the TE that could actually make that work.
Daniels is REALLY light for his height. His frame reminded me a lot of RG3, but then I looked it up and RG3 was an inch shorter and 30 lbs (?!) heavier. Not sure I believe those RG3 numbers, but if that’s true, I don’t think Daniels needs to add 15 lbs, he needs to add like 40.
No disagreement re: the position worthiness, but I think the team is much closer to Carolina offensively than Arizona, and need more picks for more positions. If we're picking 5th, we can't go wrong with Fashanu (or Alt). If it's 4th, we can't go wrong with MHj. If 6th...ok, now we're starting to creep into uncertainty territory, and running the risk of BB (if he's still GM) doing something crazy like getting Latu, who is a terrific player, but nowhere near a need.
As far as Minshew's value, Indy is 8-7 and in the playoff hunt, with Minshew starting 11 games. He's surely not great, and barely ok, but he's cheap for a year or two. Unfortunately, playing a little better late is backing the team into considering that kind of placeholder QB for a year or two.
I'm going on the idea that Onwenu is the homegrown OL that the Pats finally spend some real money on, not just because he's good, but because there's pretty much one great FA tackle in FA this year, and Tyron Smith isn't leaving Texas (I think he's signing with Houston this offseason, as the Cowboys are close to cap'd out). I think Trent Brown has talked himself out of town, no matter Reiss's hopes that he stays, and will have a large market despite his occasional obnoxiousness. That's why I'm ok with Alt or Fashanu if they're picking 4th or 5th.
Surprisingly, PFF thinks Brown is having his best season. Right in line with usual pass-blocking history - if not slightly worse - but really kicking ass in the run game.
But the "below minimum snap count" isn't just a throwaway caveat. Aside from the obvious - health baked into his career issues, more snaps should lead to lower production, etc - theres a large delta between the top 10-12 players with 80% of snap counts and the top 10-12 players with 50% of snap counts.
What I mean is, if Brown were able to play 80% of snaps, his pass block grade would be good enough for 12th best tackle in the league. Of course thats great, especially considering his ability as a road paver.
But when using 50% of snaps as the barometer, Brown tumbles to 24th overall in pass blocking. And that isn't because a bunch of guys that barely play make the list. Of the 23 players above him on that list, none of them have less pass-blocking snaps than Brown (346). Only one of those 23 players has less than 400 snaps. In fact, 19 of the 23 have at least 100 more snaps than Brown.
In other words, even with 100 more snaps, Brown still is performing as a bottom tier starting tackle in the passing game. How much of that has to do with shitty QB play is up for debate (not in my mind...its alot...Mac couldn't navigate the pocket to save his life).
Thats not to say I don't like Brown. Unless they're drafting a tackle, there isn't a replacement I would prefer:
Tyron Smith is an elite tackle when on the field, but hasn't played a full season in 9 years, and is on pace to have only played 28 of 67 games in the last 4 seasons. Duane Brown is 100, Jonah Williams had one good season 3 years ago (and since then has given up 20 sacks), Donovan Smith may be an OK replacement, but hes a pass-blocking specialist that has a history of getting dominated on the edge. Anyone else on that list are bottom tier starters or depth players.
In fact, the market sucks bad enough that I think (A) the Patriots need to bring back Brown and (B) the market for Brown is going to be more competitive than we want which means (C) his contract is going to be expensive, and Bill is going to have to pony up.
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Generally agree, though I would note 24th is more league average starter than bottom tier, there is are 64 starting tackles every week.
I see them both listed around 210, but Daniels at 6’4 and RG3 at 6’2. You’d think at that height he can put on some weight.
Maybe, he's built kinda slim, and he's been on a college weight program for almost 5 years, went from 158 to 210 in that time period, not sure how much more he's got to add.
I think if we stay at the fourth pick, by the time the draft rolls around Daniels may be ranked higher than Maye...and Washington may take Daniels ahead of Maye.
As far Trent Brown goes, I think him being back partially hinge on who the coach and GM are. We know BB seems to like and value Brown to some extent, perhaps more inclined to deal with the frustrating aspects of Brown. We also know BB, if he didn’t retain Brown, wouldn’t go into the draft with a gaping hole at LT. His strategy has always been plug holes with filler so you’re not forced into a specific pick (see RT this year which didn’t work out but allowed them to take Gonzalez instead of “needing” to take a tackle early)
Even if the Pats end up out of position for the top 3 QB and possibly top 2 WR (drafting 7th let’s say, if they win one more), I don’t think they go into the draft with Fashanu as the target and then feeling obligated into taking Alt or whomever.
So if BB is here, I would expect a reasonable attempt at retaining Brown or a shot at some worse but possibly serviceable veteran option. There really isn’t anyone other than Brown that seems a good bet to be worth big bucks in free agency.
What they do at LT early in the off-season should tell us quite a bit about their draft strategy. If they retain Brown, I have to imagine QB (unlikely outside the top 5 but I guess possible) or Odunze/Nabers will be the top options on offense.
The Pats need to upgrade their offense (obviously) and I just don’t see any non-Fashanu representing an upgrade over Brown in 2024-2025. Beyond that, yeah a premium rookie locks up that spot (hopefully) after Brown’s new contract expires or his age decline really starts hampering him.
of their 3 big holes in getting the offense to competitive level (QB, WR, LT), Brown is the only premium or solidly above average realistic veteran target. I doubt Cousins is in play, and I would guess Pittman, Evans (?) and Higgins will be franchise tagged or will go to more attractive suitors.
Even if the Pats end up out of position for the top 3 QB and possibly top 2 WR (drafting 7th let’s say, if they win one more), I don’t think they go into the draft with Fashanu as the target and then feeling obligated into taking Alt or whomever.
So if BB is here, I would expect a reasonable attempt at retaining Brown or a shot at some worse but possibly serviceable veteran option. There really isn’t anyone other than Brown that seems a good bet to be worth big bucks in free agency.
What they do at LT early in the off-season should tell us quite a bit about their draft strategy. If they retain Brown, I have to imagine QB (unlikely outside the top 5 but I guess possible) or Odunze/Nabers will be the top options on offense.
The Pats need to upgrade their offense (obviously) and I just don’t see any non-Fashanu representing an upgrade over Brown in 2024-2025. Beyond that, yeah a premium rookie locks up that spot (hopefully) after Brown’s new contract expires or his age decline really starts hampering him.
of their 3 big holes in getting the offense to competitive level (QB, WR, LT), Brown is the only premium or solidly above average realistic veteran target. I doubt Cousins is in play, and I would guess Pittman, Evans (?) and Higgins will be franchise tagged or will go to more attractive suitors.
I don’t know that Minshew is really any better than Zappe. I don’t think either are good QB’s but at least Zappe - if you squint hard enough - has some untapped upside. Minshew has been around long enough, in enough systems to have a general sense that this is who he is. Barely serviceable and not a guy who can make the Pats offense competitive.
I don’t know how anyone can look at an Alt/Minshew (or Fashanu/Zappe) combination and think that’s any sort of meaningful upgrade over Brown/Zappe. Drafting top 10 and ending up basically in the same place offensively next year will be discouraging to say the least. They’d have to go crazy in the WR market (sign Higgins plus a guy like Shaheed or Mooney or whomever) to start building a competent offense.
I get that medium and long term (or immediate if Brown has worn out his welcome or can’t be retained) LT is a big need. But I’m a lot more confident in finding a serviceable (not franchise) LT in the 2nd round or filling that hole in 2025 mid 1st/2nd than I am finding a premium QB/WR outside of this year’s 1st round pick.
Not diminishing the value of a great LT, but if he has nobody to pass protect for, that value is kind of wasted. Giving Minshew or Zappe or Brissett an extra 2 seconds to throw isn’t going to make those guys good and certainly isn’t going to take the Pats offense from dumpster fire to above average.
honestly, I’m not sure I see too many paths to a good offense next year that don’t involve retaining Brown which is unfortunate because this D - especially if Judon fights off Father Time and Dugger is retained - is a very good, perhaps elite unit. They could easily be in the playoff mix next year with competent QB play and better WR.
It’s kind of a shame we don’t still have Cunningham. Running some series with him to change things up would have been a good opportunity to tank these last few games without looking like we are tanking 
Just out of curiosity, what are you willing to give up for Russell Wilson and an opportunity to (maybe) rework his contract?
His contract is terrible. Denver should be paying the Patriots to relieve some of the financial burden. If not, the Broncos can pay the $85 million, or whatever it is, that he is still guaranteed.
Wilson’s cap hit belongs to Denver even if they trade him, is that right? Or at least a lot of it? Doesn’t seem like we hear about teams using assets to dump contacts in the NFL like we do in the NBA
Wilson will be cut well before the draft (additional guarantees kick in on 5th day of league year). Seems clear from this year that Wilson cannot be a system QB. If you sign him, you're playing his way, so I wouldn't bite unless NE hires a Pete Carroll offensive disciple (Darrell Bevell?) to replace BB (oh, the circle of life) or become the OC.