Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)

P'tucket rhymes with...

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The Coney Island of my mind
Wilson will be cut well before the draft (additional guarantees kick in on 5th day of league year). Seems clear from this year that Wilson cannot be a system QB. If you sign him, you're playing his way, so I wouldn't bite unless NE hires a Pete Carroll offensive disciple (Darrell Bevell?) to replace BB (oh, the circle of life) or become the OC.
To be clear, I want no part of him, and it's hard to envision a scenario where anyone gives up anything of value for him.

I'm far more interested in seeing what sort of alchemy Payton has up his sleeve by cutting an expensive QB who is better than anyone who will replace him, crippling the cap for a few years, and preventing ownership from realizing they hired a charlatan.
 

Cellar-Door

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Wilson’s cap hit belongs to Denver even if they trade him, is that right? Or at least a lot of it? Doesn’t seem like we hear about teams using assets to dump contacts in the NFL like we do in the NBA
54M over 2 years is what a team would take on, 77 if they agree to pay the roster bonus.
 

amfox1

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To be clear, I want no part of him, and it's hard to envision a scenario where anyone gives up anything of value for him.

I'm far more interested in seeing what sort of alchemy Payton has up his sleeve by cutting an expensive QB who is better than anyone who will replace him, crippling the cap for a few years, and preventing ownership from realizing they hired a charlatan.
Denver is nearly $21mm over the 2024 cap now, even with Wilsons $35.4mm in 2024 dead money (and assuming the remaining $49.6mm is pushed to 2025 by designating Wilson as a post-June 1 release). They'll cut WR Patrick ($10mm cap savings) and DL Jones ($10mm cap savings) to get to even. Other potential casualties are OL Bolles ($16mm cap savings), S Simmons ($14.5mm cap savings) and WR Sutton ($10mm cap savings) to free up what little revamping they'll be able to accomplish.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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Denver is nearly $21mm over the 2024 cap now, even with Wilsons $35.4mm in 2024 dead money (and assuming the remaining $49.6mm is pushed to 2025 by designating Wilson as a post-June 1 release). They'll cut WR Patrick ($10mm cap savings) and DL Jones ($10mm cap savings) to get to even. Other potential casualties are OL Bolles ($16mm cap savings), S Simmons ($14.5mm cap savings) and WR Sutton ($10mm cap savings) to free up what little revamping they'll be able to accomplish.
I guess they can make the $ work, but what does the roster look like next year, and what's Payton's message when he's selling it?
 

NomarsFool

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Since the Patriots have cap space, is there an opportunity there to get some assets in exchange for taking Wilson? I mean, he’s not worse than Zappe. The question would be if there’s FA targets out there to spend the money on that would be better than whatever assets we could pry from Denver.
 

lexrageorge

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Since the Patriots have cap space, is there an opportunity there to get some assets in exchange for taking Wilson? I mean, he’s not worse than Zappe. The question would be if there’s FA targets out there to spend the money on that would be better than whatever assets we could pry from Denver.
Wilson is way past his prime, will decline even more next season, and would do nothing to help the WR/OL situation. Hard pass.
 

Ed Hillel

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Russell Wilson is a complete waste of a roster spot at the most important position by far. I’d much rather Zappe than him at this point. Hard pass.
 

NomarsFool

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Plus he seems to be a shitty teammate and possibly a cancer. Mr Unliiiiiimiited.
Well, if that's an issue - fine. But folks seem to be missing the point. The idea was to use the cap room to get assets from Denver that we would use to make the team better - not because Wilson is good (if he was good Denver wouldn't trade assets to get rid of him). We can't use the cap space for OL help, as there doesn't project to be any to be had. Maybe there is cap space on the WR front - no idea.
 

DJnVa

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Wilson is way past his prime, will decline even more next season, and would do nothing to help the WR/OL situation. Hard pass.
A decline from 67% completion, 26/8 TD/INT, and a passer rating near 100?

His contract is atrocious and I don't want him but he was pretty good this season.
 

Dogman

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Well, if that's an issue - fine. But folks seem to be missing the point. The idea was to use the cap room to get assets from Denver that we would use to make the team better - not because Wilson is good (if he was good Denver wouldn't trade assets to get rid of him). We can't use the cap space for OL help, as there doesn't project to be any to be had. Maybe there is cap space on the WR front - no idea.

There are multiple OT hitting FA. Our own Trent Brown is one. There are multiple WR hitting FA. Mike Evans and Tee Higgins are two. The Patriots will have roughly $80M in cap space. You can book it that 1-2 OL/OT are brought in during FA. Same goes for WR.

That may happen via trade with Denver. However, that isn't likely as it only takes money to bring in FAs from other teams whereas any trade with Denver would include a player with a horrible contract. Building a roster that way gets us nowhere.
 

Mystic Merlin

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And what would we be doing with Wilson? I have zero interest in carrying the player as a starter or backup with a fully guaranteed 17M salary. I don’t care if it nets them a second rounder or something, that guy isn’t a solution at the position.
 

Dogman

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That's certainly the question. Why would this team trade for one or two of Denver's expensive players (Sutton, Bolles, Simmons) with Wilson's expensive contract a part of that? He isn't a long term solution whatsoever and any trade like this would be horrible roster and cap construction.
 

BigJimEd

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And what would we be doing with Wilson? I have zero interest in carrying the player as a starter or backup with a fully guaranteed 17M salary. I don’t care if it nets them a second rounder or something, that guy isn’t a solution at the position.
Don't forget his $37M salary in 2025 would be guaranteed.

Just not worth it. Denver saves $17M by trading him vs cutting him. They're not giving up enough to make it worthwhile unless there is a major contract restructuring involved..
 

Cellar-Door

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I think Russ gets cut, signs somewhere and that team gets a frustrating, but also league average or better QB for a couple years at a great discount. Probably won't be here, he'll want a team with a readybuilt offense and ready to contend..... Atlanta seems most likely, he's a better option for them than Fields.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I'm so confused by some of these takes. There are a whole bunch of folks fully committed to the belief that the Pats could have been contending for a playoff spot this season if they had competent QB play.

Russell Wilson is better than competent, and even with his salary the Pats would have money and picks to improve the roster, ergo, Russell Wilson should make the Pats a super duper extra legit playoff contender next year, no?

Now, I'm not in favor of getting Wilson for a variety of reasons, but I think the guy is still an above average NFL qb, and honestly, I think folks wildly over rate Jeudy and Sutton (I'm the proud owner of Williams in a sosh dynasty league and the dude plain sucks as a RB), and even with a pretty crappy group around him, Wilson has kept them afloat. So I'm trying to understand why folks who are convinced that a guy like Baker or Brissett would have the Pats at around 9-10 wins, why wouldn't Wilson project to have more?
 

DJnVa

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There's reports that Eberflus is coming back in Chicago next season. Gotta wonder if he thinks a rookie QB is the way to go if he is in a must win season or if he thinks he can squeeze another few wins out of Fields.
 
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amfox1

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Week 17 (thru Sat)

2-13 CAR SOS .5214 (134-123 - ATLx2 (14-16), TBx2 (16-14), NOx2 (14-16), JAX (8-7), IND (8-7), TEN (5-10), HOU (8-7), MIA (11-4), MIN (7-8), DET (11-5), GB (7-8), CHI (6-9), DAL (11-5), SEA (8-7))
3-12 ARI SOS .5642 (145-112 - SFx2 (22-8), LARx2 (16-14), SEAx2 (16-14), BAL (12-3), CLE (11-5), CIN (8-7), PIT (8-7), TEX (8-7), PHI (11-4), DAL (11-5), WAS (4-11), NYG (5-10), ATL (7-8), CHI (6-9)
4-11 NE SOS .5194 (134-124 - NYJx2 (12-20), BUFx2 (18-12), MIAx2 (22-8), PHI (11-4), DAL (11-5), WAS (4-11), NYG (5-10), NO (7-8), LV (7-8), DEN (7-8), KC (9-6), LAC (5-10), IND (8-7), PIT (8-7))
4-11 WAS SOS .5194 (134-124 - DALx2 (22-10), PHIx2 (22-8), NYGx2 (10-20), MIA (11-4), BUF (9-6), NYJ (6-10), NE (4-11), DEN (7-8), ARI (3-12), SF (11-4) LAR (8-7), SEA (8-7), CHI (6-9), ATL (7-8)

NE has the 3rd pick going into Sunday's games, based on the 3rd tiebreaker (H2H) with WAS.

Week 17 Sun games (WAS/NE SOS impact, excl ARI-PHI*, CAR-JAX**, NE-BUF and WAS-SF games)
NO-TB - root for TB
MIA-BAL - root for BAL
PIT-SEA - root for SEA
LAC-DEN - root for DEN
CIN-KC - root for CIN
ATL-CHI, LV-IND, LAR-NYG, TEN-HOU, GB-MIN - no impact

* game has no impact on relative SOS but an unlikely ARI win pushes ARI to 4 if WAS & NE lose their games
** game has no impact on relative SOS but if CAR wins both remaining games, then it may impact draft slots with WAS/NE if they lose out

A NE win and a NYG loss would likely push NE down to 5, based on SOS.
 

jtn46

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There's reports that Eberflus is coming back in Chicago next season. Gotta wonder if he thinks a rookie QB is the way to go if he is in a must win season or if he thinks he can squeeze another few wins out of Fields,
I think they should stick with Fields personally, the Bears look alright after upgrading their defense, Fields and Moore have good chemistry and they have a ton of cap space. If they added Harrison I could see that offense being really nasty. I guess the question is would they offer up number 1 to QB-needy teams? It would probably cost them Harrison because I assume Arizona will pick him at 2 if he's there.
 

DJnVa

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I think they should stick with Fields personally, the Bears look alright after upgrading their defense, Fields and Moore have good chemistry and they have a ton of cap space. If they added Harrison I could see that offense being really nasty. I guess the question is would they offer up number 1 to QB-needy teams? It would probably cost them Harrison because I assume Arizona will pick him at 2 if he's there.
If Bears take Harrison, then Arizona may decide to trade down to QB needy team unless they become enamored with Bowers, Alt, etc. But they could drop to 5 or 6 and still get someone like that.
 

jtn46

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If Bears take Harrison, then Arizona may decide to trade down to QB needy team unless they become enamored with Bowers, Alt, etc. But they could drop to 5 or 6 and still get someone like that.
Agreed, and this puts the Bears in a weird spot because if a team likes Williams and Maye equally their pick isn't any more valuable than Arizona's pick as a trade chip.
 

Cellar-Door

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There's reports that Eberflus is coming back in Chicago next season. Gotta wonder if he thinks a rookie QB is the way to go if he is in a must win season or if he thinks he can squeeze another few wins out of Fields.
A rookie QB is a reset gets him 2 years at least no must wins with rookie QBs it's assumed that they will struggle
 

amfox1

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I think they should stick with Fields personally, the Bears look alright after upgrading their defense, Fields and Moore have good chemistry and they have a ton of cap space. If they added Harrison I could see that offense being really nasty. I guess the question is would they offer up number 1 to QB-needy teams? It would probably cost them Harrison because I assume Arizona will pick him at 2 if he's there.
CHI traded the #1 pick last year for #9, #61 & future 1st (#1 this year) & 2nd rounders. If they don't believe that #1 is a franchise QB, they should absolutely trade it for a haul. If WAS ends up at 4, and CHI can trade #1 for #4, #41, #100 and a 2025 1st, they should do it.
 

Galway Sox Fan

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Whatever way it works out its going to be a very interesting and exciting off season.

I know its a draft thread but there are so many routes that the team can go with regard to free agency which obviously impacts draft choice.

Right now i would give up a 2nd for Fields (i think Chicago will trade him and take Williams) and depending on draft position take Harrison Jnr or a tackle.
 

DJnVa

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Bears have clinched the #1 pick.

Giants in long FG range, and with a win will guarantee Pats draft ahead of them.

EDIT: missed.
 

DJnVa

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A Giants win would've made this a really good day. The Giants SOS is near NE's so we don't want a tie with them.
 

BusRaker

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Once Miami loses I think our SOS goes below Washington putting us in the 2 hole (until we beat the Jets)
 

amfox1

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Week 17 (thru Sun early games)

4-12 WAS SOS .5148 (139-131 - DALx2 (22-10), PHIx2 (22-10), NYGx2 (10-22), MIA (11-5), BUF (10-6), NYJ (6-10), NE (4-12), DEN (7-8), ARI (4-12), SF (12-4), LAR (9-7), SEA (8-7), CHI (7-9), ATL (7-9)
4-12 NE SOS .5149 (138-130 - NYJx2 (12-20), BUFx2 (20-12), MIAx2 (22-10), PHI (11-5), DAL (11-5), WAS (4-12), NYG (5-11), NO (8-8), LV (7-9), DEN (7-8), KC (9-6), LAC (5-10), IND (9-7), PIT (8-7))
4-12 ARI SOS .5672 (152-116 - SFx2 (24-8), LARx2 (18-14), SEAx2 (16-14), BAL (13-3), CLE (11-5), CIN (8-7), PIT (8-7), TEX (9-7), PHI (11-5), DAL (11-5), WAS (4-12), NYG (5-11), ATL (7-9), CHI (7-9)

CHI (via CAR) has clinched the #1 overall pick. NE has the 3rd pick going into Sunday's late afternoon games, based on losing the 2nd tiebreaker (SOS) with WAS but winning it with ARI.

Week 17 remaining games (WAS/NE SOS impact)
PIT-SEA - root for SEA (1.0 game impact)
LAC-DEN - root for DEN (0.5 game impact)
CIN-KC - root for CIN (0.5 game impact)
GB-MIN - no impact