Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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Do the Pats have the juice to head fake the Commanders to take the guy they don't want, letting the guy they do want fall to them?
I think I like him the least.
On the plus side I see the Herbert Comps with size, mobility (though I don;t think his arm is close to Herbert's) but.....
If you told me one of the top 3 was a total bust, I'd pick Maye as most likely. He has a lot of Wentz in him, his instincts seem terrible, he does weird things with his release/arm action that cause inaccuracies...and I really dislike dumb QBs, and he seems really dumb on the field.
To me, Maye has the 2nd highest ceiling probably, but also the lowest floor (reasonable floor, every player's floor is just not NFL quality).
And Mel agrees with you.
Now I haven't watched all three extensively, but I have watched all three. I just like Maye's size and mobility to an Allen comp. And you can say Allen is a "dumb QB" as well with some of his decision making, but the pluses are there.
I just think if you are gonna have a mobile QB, better to have one with some size.
You just never know with any of these guys until they are in the show.
The result would be a rule change and a loss of the Patriots 2025 first rounder.
Patriots actually were just docked the 3rd pick because of the possibility.
Yeah, I'd say the difference i have is I don't see an Allen style runner in Maye, I see a Herbert/Lawrence type where he can take off sometimes, but he's not going to be a true weapon like Allen
I also think Maye is going to be the worst of the 3, and he may end up being the fifth best QB in this draft depending on whether Penix stays healthy and McCarthy can be developed properly. It would be very disappointing to come away with him as the prize after day one.
Edit - And fuck our idiot kicker whose one big kick all year cost us a draft spot.
Edit - And fuck our idiot kicker whose one big kick all year cost us a draft spot.
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Yeah, as someone who also at least prefers Maye to Daniels (and may to Williams as well), its hard to see Maye as a Josh Allen value runner. That said, I think he has a bit more in him as a designed runner (as compared with a guy who can bring value when a play breaks down) than Herbert/Lawrence, but its more of a matter of some small incremental benefit in the same general tier than a guy who is likely to be able to dominate the run game in the way like Allen can.
There’s definitely some bust potential for Daniels, but I see a guy who could be kind of the perfect modern day QB.
I wouldn’t hate Maye, but there’s some legitimate red flags I’ve seen with him.
I wouldn’t hate Maye, but there’s some legitimate red flags I’ve seen with him.
True, I suppose we should just be thankful for the kicks he did miss against Indy and the Giants, among others.
Yeah. I guess i should have said closer to Allen than the other two.
I may be just worried too much about our OL and getting whoever we select killed.
That and he missed the Giants kick that would've sent it to OT against DeVito. Kinda evens out, and in the whole Ryland probably contributed more to them being 3 than costing them 2.
You and me both.
I think folks are going to be really surprised when Maye goes out and runs a 4.55-4.60 at the combine, with a 6'4, 235 pound frame (almost the same as Allen, but a quarter of a second faster in the 40).
I think Maye's floor is Daniel Jones, and his ceiling is Josh Allen level. And I just don't see him having the problems in the passing game that Jones has shown, but of course, Jones hasn't exactly benefitted from the team around him either, so will the Pats surround this young QB with the help that all young QB's need to succeed in the NFL. That, to me, is the $1,000 question.
Isn't there a very good chance that whatever QB we draft, especially if it's Maye, is going to sit most of next year? That gives us two years of drafts and free agency to clean up the OL.
Does anyone understand what a monster Josh Allen is? Maye has some run in him but comparing him to Allen in any way as a runner is folly.
I’d be pretty surprised, I think they’re probably hoping for something like what happened with Stroud and Houston.
Not if it's a QB they pick at 3. They may feign a competition in camp but you'd think any of the top 3 guys would easily win that competition against Mac/Zappe/flotsam.
I think there's a chance. Very good? I wouldn't count on it. Especially if the room stays the same.
1st round QB's don't really sit a year anymore. The only outlier in recent drafts are Trey Lance and Jordan Love. Lance was drafted behind Jimmy G and obviously Love was behind Rodgers so it wasn't pressing. Basically all the other QB's were either week 1 starters or eventually took over in year 1 (Pickett, Haskins).
The only reason for the Pats to sit a rookie QB is if they do nothing to address the abysmal OL situation. Assuming that they spend some FA and draft capital on tackles and some WR/TE help, may as well let the man learn on the job.
Last two years of college rushing:
Allen: 142 attempts, 523 yards, 3.7 ypc, 7tds
92 carries, 204 yards, 2.2ypc, 5tds
Maye: 184 carries, 698 yards, 3.8ypc, 8tds
112 carries, 449 yards, 4.0ypc, 9tds.
Drake Maye is a better runner than Josh Allen was at this point in his career. Saying Maye will be a better or even equal runner to Allen in the pros is folly, but claiming he has no chance is also a folly.
To be fair he'd be DUMB to make these moves.
JK, it's not fair at all. Let the guy draft someone before we start complaining maybe?
Count me as being extremely nervous about a QB at 3. Only twice in the last 50 years has the #3 QB been taken at 3, and those were Akili Smith and Trey Lance. No thanks.
But who is the #3 QB? Couch was taken #1 when Akili went #3. Zach Wilson went #2 when Lance went #3.
That's kind of a very specific data point. #3 being the #3 QB. I think you probably want to look at the overall sample of the first 3 QB's selected in a draft.
2023: Young, Stroud, Richardson
2022: Pickett, Ridder, Willis
2021: Lawrence, Wilson, Lance
2020: Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert
2019: Murray, Jones, Haskins
2018: Mayfield, Darnold, Allen
2017: Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson
2016: Goff, Wentz, Hackenberg
2015: Winston, Marriota, Grayson
Obviously there are plenty of busts in here but generally speaking the best QB's are among the first 3 QB's off the board in their draft class regardless of what the actual number pick it is.
Who'd he say Chicago took? I assume Williams being there for DC means he didn't have them trading.
Going back a bit further (to a similarly stacked QB class), Roethlisberger was the 3rd QB behind Eli Manning and Rivers. Of course, you have Christian Ponder (12th overall), Josh Freeman (17th overall), Kyle Boller (19th overall) who didn’t work out quite as well.
QB’s tend to get significantly overdrafted at times due to positional value so it’s hard to really compare “1st round QB” or “3rd QB taken”
It’s rare to have classes where you have 3-4 (even 5) QB who are legitimate 1st round talents which I believe Williams, Maye and Daniels certainly are. Penix, Nix and McCarthy are probably 2nd or 3rd round talents (or when factoring in red flags) at most other positions but in a “normal” draft QB class those guys could end up top 15 picks. That second tier could go anywhere from 8th to 68th. We’ve seen “sure fire” first rounders slide deep into round 2 or 3 and we’ve seen other guys get drafted in the 1st that were “consensus” day 2 picks.
Teddy Bridgewater almost slid out of the 1st round despite being mocked 1st overall heading to the off-season. Levis dropped to round 2 after some early offseason talk of being a top 3-5 consideration. Malik Willis slid compared to draft analyst expectations as well.
this is such a deep class that it wouldn’t surprise me if one of the Tier 3 (or 4 if you have Williams by himself) QB’s like Pratt, Ward, Rattler etc ends up being the third best QB to come out of the class and 5 years from now we’re all amazed that he went behind 6 other guys.
CHicago too Williams... WAS took Jayden Daniels over Drake Maye.
Williams is going #1 overall, only question is whether CHI trades out (unlikely) or picks him themselves.
I don't have their High School and PeeWee stats to back me up, so I'm afraid you have caught me in a moment of snarky exaggeration. But I still don't like the comp. And you may very well be right....Maye will develop into a true dual threat who frightens opponents with both arm and legs. The best comp ever for Allen as a running QB might be Bobby Douglas who unfortunately couldn't hit a bull in the ass with a snow shovel and never did develop his throwing as Allen has. But both were powerhouse running backs with Allen having the added advantage of being a rocket-armed thrower (like Douglas) who actually refined his passing (Douglas never did). You are correct in saying that such certainty on my part was a bit of folly. I should have just made my case and left it at that.
I agree with you on this, with the caveat that I’m not enamored of Daniels either. I think the best argument for Maye (in NE) is that he has the size/mobility to survive that o-line. (Seriously, that line is going to get someone killed. Can NE not hire Scar to train a replacement?) The offensive side in NE is so depleted that there’s no way to fix it all in a few picks, so I threw my hat in the “trade down and try build out the offense enough that one of the next three guys can make a go of it”.
You can understand the fear, the Bears traded up for Trubisky, who turned out to be the tenth best QB of the 2017 class.
I’m praying that Daniels runs a sub 4.5 at the combine and the Commanders reach for him at #2 thinking he’s a more durable version of RG3. Drake Maye is a more complete QB prospect and I’d be psyched if the Pats land him with the third pick. Most of Maye’s issues can be resolved with better coaching and film study. You can’t fix the lack of arm strength with Daniels.
Kind of where I am at too. It would be great of Daniels also weighed in at 220 or so. Whatever his weight, I worry about his durability, particularly if our line does not improve and he's having to make plays with his feet.
That said, I'll happily talk myself into Daniels if he's there at #3 instead of drafting MHJ or an OT. I would rather address those needs in other ways.
Unreasonable? Maybe. Because when someone dominates in a conference like the SEC, we sometimes downgrade them because of all the weapons.
Where are these arm strength concerns on Daniels coming from? Does he have a cannon? No. But when I watch tape of LSU I never once thought "if only this guy had a bigger arm he'd be able to make more plays" or something along those lines. He has elite pocket presence, great accuracy/ball placement, and reads defenses well. The ability to run makes him even dangerous but I think he's underrated as a passer. Do wish he was 15 to 25lbs heavier though.
Daniels looks, to me, like he has a solid average NFL arm, with the caveat that most NFL QBs have enough arm to be successful. However, after the last three seasons I'm looking for a rebound QB -- a guy with a strong arm who can make plays in a crowded pocket or off platform when he's running for his life, which he'll be doing behind our O line. I'm not sure that's Daniels.
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t!
This is what intrigues me about McCarthy. He played in a “pro” system, didn’t have all world WRs and succeeded. He wasn’t asked to do much but he did that well. He has an NFL arm and can move.
One simple throw he made kind of sold me. In the Alabama game, he was flushed out of the pocket, running to his right he threw on the run to his guy in a tight window on the sidelines.
He didn’t break stride and delivered a strong throw.
I hate to use the “high floor” label on him but my ideal situation would be to draft a WR early (either MHJ at 3 or a trade down to grab one of the next tier of WRs) and then move into position grab JJ.
QB, LT, WR1 — all desperately needed.
Most here seem to think the first round pick should be QB, but what about the other two? Free agent vet vs 2nd round pick (or later).
If we could convert that #3 pick into something like #8 and #20-ish, I’d be tempted in the hopes that you could solve two of those positions.
Most here seem to think the first round pick should be QB, but what about the other two? Free agent vet vs 2nd round pick (or later).
If we could convert that #3 pick into something like #8 and #20-ish, I’d be tempted in the hopes that you could solve two of those positions.
I think the thinking is they should be able to solve 2 of those positions with 3 and 35.
The FA market at OT is garbage (Tyron Smith consensus #1, most have the two Patriots tackles #2 and #3 if they have Onwenwu at T), WR market isn't great, once the franchise tags hit decent chance Bourne is one of the best guys out there.
In terms of picks, deep draft at both OT and WR, so you should be able to get a OT in the 2nd and WR in the 3rd... maybe trade up into the 2nd for a bit more selection at WR.
I don't love a trade back, because I think once you move off #3 you're downgrading your QB chances significantly, and QB is way more important than OT/WR, and in a multi-year build like the Patriots will be entering, there will be WR in particular throughout the 1st round of next year's draft.
They're probably not going to be able to solve all those issues in one year. But they have to take the shot to solve QB if they think any of the guys available at 3 has a chance to develop into a top ten guy.
Finding the QB is the holy grail. Everything else is window dressing until you have your QB.
I wouldn't necessarily call it unreasonable. I just think it's less of a concern for QB's than virtually any other position. The other side of the equation is they are also playing with inferior talent and inferior coaching as well.
But when you look around the NFL, you see QB's succeed out of non-SEC schools. Mahomes played in the track meet, no defense Big 12. In his final season, where he threw for 5,000 yards and his team went 5-7, every team in the conference averaged 31+ points per game, except Kansas (20.3) and Iowa State (27.7). Speaking of Iowa State, that's the home of Brock Purdy. Josh Allen went and didn't play very well at Wyoming given what he's turned into. Jordan Love went to Utah State. You can go back to Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff at Cal, or Drew Brees at Purdue or Rivers at NC State or Russell Wilson at Wisconsin or Big Ben from Miami (Ohio).
I also ignore college stats for QB's moreso than any other positions for much the same reason. The 2nd and 3rd highest passing yards seasons in college history are also from Mahomes' alma mater. They were BJ Symons in 2003 with over 5,800 yards, and Graham Harrell in 2007 with over 5,700 yards. The #1 passing season ever for yards, Bailey Zappe in 2021 at Western Kentucky with 5,967 yards. Don't even get me going on the Houston offenses with David Klingler and Case Keenum.
Then you have guys like Mac and Bryce Young and almost every QB that went to Ohio State, pre-Stroud, who put up huge numbers, were massive prospects and didn't get it done.
I feel completely differently when it comes to skill guys though. I think the skill position guys in the NFL on both sides of the ball are so, so athletic and talented that they need to have faced a level of competition in college to prepare them for the speed of the NFL game. A guy like AJ Brown never put up insane stats in college, but 1,300 yards receiving in the SEC is a different animal than Terrance Williams going for over 1,800 yards at Baylor. The odds of hitting on a Terry MacLaurin in the 3rd round out of a school like OSU are much higher than trying to find the next Tyreek out of West Alabama.
Young QB's, IMO, are almost all, with very few exceptions, projects. Some guys take the next step in the right environment, with the right coaching, some don't no matter what kind of coaching they get, a few will thrive anywhere, but at the end of the day, it's a project and there isn't a one size fits all, so the best you can hope for on draft day is finding a guy with at least the physical tools and some mental traits to get to the next level. I think any of the top 3 this year can be really good, I'd prefer Maye over Daniels (Williams is going #1 unless he gets arrested between now and draft day), but I'd be ok with taking Daniels too, but they all are going to have to be put into the right situation.
This is a great and interesting post. Thanks for it, I'll think of this often through this draft process.
Also, to build off @DJnVa's post above, here's another argument for Maye, this one from Colt McCoy who seems to like Maye's arm (keeps talking about his effortless throws 40+ yards downfield, even from messy pockets, and does note a few times where he needs to maintain his footwork) and decisionmaking.
View: https://youtu.be/Xzs30efzn8o
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