Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)

[DJnVa]

Whoever Diante Lee is, he thinks the Pats go MHJ: 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Caleb Williams sticks at No. 1, Giants add Malik Nabers - The Athletic

3. New England Patriots: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Harrison would be the most talented Patriots receiver since Randy Moss and the most valuable offensive draft pick for this franchise since Rob Gronkowski almost 15 years ago. Harrison isn’t just a matchup problem on jump balls, he has the route tree and the yards-after-catch potential you can build an entire passing game around.

New England needs a quarterback and has expressed a desire to bring one in, but I can’t imagine anyone in that building believing Michael Penix Jr. or Jayden Daniels is worth the third pick — particularly when a talent like Harrison is available. There would be some merit to trading this pick to a QB-desperate team.

The bolded seems like a weird take to me--I haven't seen many people at all placing Daniels and Penix in the same area of the draft. Daniels has lately been a mid-first if not higher pick, while Penix generally lands no higher than late in first.

 

[Curt S Loew]

The bolded seems like a weird take to me--I haven't seen many people at all placing Daniels and Penix in the same area of the draft. Daniels has lately been a mid-first if not higher pick, while Penix generally lands no higher than late in first.

Exactly. As soon as I saw that I gave this prediction the weight it deserves.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I would guess one of the Penix, McCarthy and Nix trio ends up going very early but putting them in the same conversation with Daniels now seems a bit much.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

This is a great and interesting post. Thanks for it, I'll think of this often through this draft process.

Also, to build off @DJnVa's post above, here's another argument for Maye, this one from Colt McCoy who seems to like Maye's arm (keeps talking about his effortless throws 40+ yards downfield, even from messy pockets, and does note a few times where he needs to maintain his footwork) and decisionmaking.

View: https://youtu.be/Xzs30efzn8o

One of the appealing things about Maye is his arm (and play style generally) won’t be an issue in the northeast weather.

I love Daniels as a prospect but I do think his game, predicated on home run plays (long runs or deep balls) has more risk of potentially being impacted by cold, snowy, windy condition compared to Maye.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

One of the appealing things about Maye is his arm (and play style generally) won’t be an issue in the northeast weather.

I love Daniels as a prospect but I do think his game, predicated on home run plays (long runs or deep balls) has more risk of potentially being impacted by cold, snowy, windy condition compared to Maye.

It's so nice to have someone else around here that thinks about the weather in this context. Nothing to do with Maye over Daniels, but I just don't understand why so many folks ignore the weather as if playing in New England or Green Bay or Buffalo or Chicago is the same as playing in Detroit, or Miami or LA or Minnesota or Dallas, etc.

The climate can be as much of an advantage as anything in the game, but without the right players, it can also be a massive disadvantage.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I think it's pretty simple at #3. If Caleb or Maye drops, you pick QB. If they don't, you pick Harrison. Harrison is a plug and play star-level receiver.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think it's pretty simple at #3. If Caleb or Maye drops, you pick QB. If they don't, you pick Harrison. Harrison is a plug and play star-level receiver.

This is not entirely true, there is no such thing as a no risk prospect, but also... history tells us that a star receiver without a good QB has no value in terms of winning.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

This is not entirely true, there is no such thing as a no risk prospect, but also... history tells us that a star receiver without a good QB has no value in terms of winning.

Yeah but I don't think you pass up Harrison for the difference between Daniels or Penix (or maybe Cousins). That's the point

 

[jsinger121]

I think it's pretty simple at #3. If Caleb or Maye drops, you pick QB. If they don't, you pick Harrison. Harrison is a plug and play star-level receiver.

If they don’t get the QB, I would trade down and get a tackle and acquire more picks then go receiver later. They need a ton in this draft.

 

[gammoseditor]

Whoever Diante Lee is, he thinks the Pats go MHJ: 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Caleb Williams sticks at No. 1, Giants add Malik Nabers - The Athletic


The bolded seems like a weird take to me--I haven't seen many people at all placing Daniels and Penix in the same area of the draft. Daniels has lately been a mid-first if not higher pick, while Penix generally lands no higher than late in first.

I’m waiting for the Athletic to update their rankings, but mid-season they had Daniels #43 overall.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Yeah but I don't think you pass up Harrison for the difference between Daniels or Penix (or maybe Cousins). That's the point

I would for Daniels, but if you won't then you trade the pick to someone who thinks Daniels is the franchise.

You don't draft Penix at all unless you think he is a franchise guy. QBs basically come in 2 categories when you're drafting in the 1st.... Franchise potential or don't draft them.

QB is generally not a position that you worry about "difference between" because a slight difference in QB is the difference between franchise guy and Mac Jones. Every tiny bit of difference in a QB is worth 10, 20, maybe 100x more than the same difference between WRs for example, and he floor of "not worth playing" is a lot higher. If you get the 4th best WR (outcome not draft order) in a draft he's usually a star, if you get the 4th best QB out of a draft you're drafting a new QB soon.

Basically with the #3 pick if you think there is a QB who can be a franchise guy for you... draft him. If you don't.... well the only way you draft someone else there is if none of the other teams in the league think there is one. YOu could easily get a future haul and still get a star WR or OT (or even edge I guess).

 

[Beomoose]

I think it's pretty simple at #3. If Caleb or Maye drops, you pick QB. If they don't, you pick Harrison. Harrison is a plug and play star-level receiver.

So, no trade either direction?

I'd love to have MHJ on this team with an at least league average QB to target him, I just don't want to have him spend a season trying to make Zappe look good while we dream of 2025 draft QBs.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I think it's pretty simple at #3. If Caleb or Maye drops, you pick QB. If they don't, you pick Harrison. Harrison is a plug and play star-level receiver.

no receiver is a plug and play star with trash at QB. Even Calvin Johnson wasn’t when he had the corpse of Jon Kitna throwing him the ball. And even in his second year (where he was virtually the only offensive player with any talent), he carried the Lions to precisely 0 wins.

Elite WR are wasted on teams without competent QB’s.

WR might be the 2nd or 3rd most important position on the roster these days but it’s the one with the most amount of dependency on another player.

Taking Harrison is probably the worst possible outcome (barring a good quality veteran QB coming in pre-draft). Take QB3 or trade to some team who wants QB3.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I would for Daniels, but if you won't then you trade the pick to someone who thinks Daniels is the franchise.

You don't draft Penix at all unless you think he is a franchise guy. QBs basically come in 2 categories when you're drafting in the 1st.... Franchise potential or don't draft them.

QB is generally not a position that you worry about "difference between" because a slight difference in QB is the difference between franchise guy and Mac Jones. Every tiny bit of difference in a QB is worth 10, 20, maybe 100x more than the same difference between WRs for example, and he floor of "not worth playing" is a lot higher. If you get the 4th best WR (outcome not draft order) in a draft he's usually a star, if you get the 4th best QB out of a draft you're drafting a new QB soon.

Basically with the #3 pick if you think there is a QB who can be a franchise guy for you... draft him. If you don't.... well the only way you draft someone else there is if none of the other teams in the league think there is one. YOu could easily get a future haul and still get a star WR or OT (or even edge I guess).

Jayden Daniels is not going to be a franchise QB and I don't think any team is going to trade up for 3 to get him. At 3 overall and where the Patriots are in the team building process, they need to take the prospect that is most likely to hit. Marvin Harrison is one of the best WR prospects to come out in a couple of years. I am confident that they will figure out a way to get a better QB situation than they had last year and Harrison is a player that has the ability to make things easier for the QB.

 

[RedOctober3829]

no receiver is a plug and play star with trash at QB. Even Calvin Johnson wasn’t when he had the corpse of Jon Kitna throwing him the ball. And even in his second year (where he was virtually the only offensive player with any talent), he carried the Lions to precisely 0 wins.

Elite WR are wasted on teams without competent QB’s.

WR might be the 2nd or 3rd most important position on the roster these days but it’s the one with the most amount of dependency on another player.

Taking Harrison is probably the worst possible outcome (barring a good quality veteran QB coming in pre-draft). Take QB3 or trade to some team who wants QB3.

So then let's not take any good WR prospects until they get a franchise QB then. Sounds like a great plan. You build up the team with the opportunities presented to you at the time. Passing on Harrison is about as stupid of a thing as you can do. All of the things that need fixing aren't going to be done in one offseason.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

If they don’t get the QB, I would trade down and get a tackle and acquire more picks then go receiver later. They need a ton in this draft.

Yup, assuming you can get a haul (1st round 2025 pick and multiple 2024 picks) you have to drop back if you're not taking a QB 3rd. They just have too many holes.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Jayden Daniels is not going to be a franchise QB and I don't think any team is going to trade up for 3 to get him. At 3 overall and where the Patriots are in the team building process, they need to take the prospect that is most likely to hit. Marvin Harrison is one of the best WR prospects to come out in a couple of years. I am confident that they will figure out a way to get a better QB situation than they had last year and Harrison is a player that has the ability to make things easier for the QB.

I feel pretty certain that a team is looking to go to 3 for him, there is too much noise around him from guys who are well tied into the league.
Even if nobody was, I'd trade down with a team that wants MHJ.
If MHJ becomes Calvin Johnson.... he still has not a lot of value without a QB, and the #3 pick is going to bring you more value in trade in terms of team building. Outside QB, the best way to build a team isn't a single star at another position, it's a bunch of guys (particularly the O-line), I'd much rather have say.... one of the top 3 tackles and other top 2 round players than MHJ.

 

[tims4wins]

Jayden Daniels is not going to be a franchise QB and I don't think any team is going to trade up for 3 to get him. At 3 overall and where the Patriots are in the team building process, they need to take the prospect that is most likely to hit. Marvin Harrison is one of the best WR prospects to come out in a couple of years. I am confident that they will figure out a way to get a better QB situation than they had last year and Harrison is a player that has the ability to make things easier for the QB.

Can you expand more on why you say Daniels won’t be a franchise QB? Not challenging you, I’m not a film guy so I am curious as to the why. Or if you’ve already posted the why could you link me to it?

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Yup, assuming you can get a haul (1st round 2025 pick and multiple 2024 picks) you have to drop back if you're not taking a QB 3rd. They just have too many holes.

If they drop back to like 7-10 and get an additional 2nd and 3rd and a pick next year and draft a WR like Nabers, would that be a good plan? Seems to be the best of both worlds.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

If they drop back to like 7-10 and get an additional 2nd and 3rd and a pick next year and draft a WR like Nabers, would that be a good plan? Seems to be the best of both worlds.

I think so. If not taking QB at 3, trade back for haul and take BPA all through the draft imo.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Can you expand more on why you say Daniels won’t be a franchise QB? Not challenging you, I’m not a film guy so I am curious as to the why. Or if you’ve already posted the why could you link me to it?

He's had elite production for 1 year and was surrounded by elite talent that made it pretty easy for him so that's a red flag for me. He's skinny so how is he going to hold up at the NFL level? I am also not sure he has the arm strength to make all the throws needed in the NFL. Can he process in the pocket at an elite level? I think he eventually will be a solid QB in the league, but to take him at 3 overall.....I'm not taking the chance.

 

[tims4wins]

He's had elite production for 1 year and was surrounded by elite talent that made it pretty easy for him so that's a red flag for me. He's skinny so how is he going to hold up at the NFL level? I am also not sure he has the arm strength to make all the throws needed in the NFL. Can he process in the pocket at an elite level? I think he eventually will be a solid QB in the league, but to take him at 3 overall.....I'm not taking the chance.

Thanks, that all makes sense.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

no receiver is a plug and play star with trash at QB. Even Calvin Johnson wasn’t when he had the corpse of Jon Kitna throwing him the ball. And even in his second year (where he was virtually the only offensive player with any talent), he carried the Lions to precisely 0 wins.

Elite WR are wasted on teams without competent QB’s.

WR might be the 2nd or 3rd most important position on the roster these days but it’s the one with the most amount of dependency on another player.

Taking Harrison is probably the worst possible outcome (barring a good quality veteran QB coming in pre-draft). Take QB3 or trade to some team who wants QB3.

To get this out of the way early, the only way I want MHJ as the 3rd pick (and I think MHJ is a fucking stud) is if there is another plan at QB out there via trade/free agency, etc. I'd be just fine with getting Russell Wilson for next to nothing, and then bringing in MHJ with the 3 pick.

However, I would prefer they simply take the best QB they have on their board at 3 over anything else, and I'm hoping Maye falls to them personally.

But the inverse of what you've written is pretty true too, no? Josh Allen, Tua, Burrow, Hurts, etc. were all pretty average QB's (or worse) until their team's front offices went and got them studs at the skill positions and better offensive lines to work with. Brock Purdy would be nowhere near the league lead in virtually every passing category without the weapons around him. We saw what happened to Rodgers without Adams, and just watched Mahomes put up a very average regular season while he figured out where his receivers were going to be and they started holding onto the ball.

That said, if you don't go QB this season, and you get a guy like MHJ with a guy like Russell Wilson, you almost have to get into GFIN mode immediately, because you'll probably end up in the middle of the pack and have no ability to grab a high franchise QB next year or the year after.

I think a team without a QB is better taking shots at QB at #3, because if it fails, the odds are you'll be right back there drafting in the top 5 in the very near future.

 

[jtn46]

He's had elite production for 1 year and was surrounded by elite talent that made it pretty easy for him so that's a red flag for me. He's skinny so how is he going to hold up at the NFL level? I am also not sure he has the arm strength to make all the throws needed in the NFL. Can he process in the pocket at an elite level? I think he eventually will be a solid QB in the league, but to take him at 3 overall.....I'm not taking the chance.

I hope all the time between now and April gets the Bears or Commies to talk themselves into Daniels so we can have an easy decision and take whichever of Williams or Maye falls.

 

[ShaneTrot]

If they do not take a QB at three, I would take Joe Alt. I love MHJ but I believe in building teams from the lines out. He could be the left tackle for years. That is extremely valuable.

 

[RedOctober3829]

If they do not take a QB at three, I would take Joe Alt. I love MHJ but I believe in building teams from the lines out. He could be the left tackle for years. That is extremely valuable.

Let's also see what they do in free agency which is before the draft. The hope is that they take care of at least one of the tackle spots in free agency.

What if you can take MHJ at 3 and then get a tackle at 34?

 

[k-factory]

Let's also see what they do in free agency which is before the draft. The hope is that they take care of at least one of the tackle spots in free agency.

What if you can take MHJ at 3 and then get a tackle at 34?

That plan only makes sense if you go all in on Cousins or Mayfield and shortcut the path to contention. And this team does not seem that close.
The upside of a cheap Daniels and a re-signed Bourne is greater than the upside of an expensive FA QB and MHJ

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I know people don't like the guy on a personal level, but I'm really trying to wrap my head around why anyone would want Cousins or Mayfield over Russell Wilson from a cost perspective, or a football perspective.

 

[BaseballJones]

I know people don't like the guy on a personal level, but I'm really trying to wrap my head around why anyone would want Cousins or Mayfield over Russell Wilson from a cost perspective, or a football perspective.

Cousins (2015-2023): 67.6%, 36,441 yds, 7.6 y/a, 252 td, 91 int, 99.9 rating, 74-60 record, 4x Pro Bowl
Wilson (2015-2023): 65.1%, 33,703 yds, 7.6 y/a, 262 td, 80 int, 100.4 rating, 79-60 record, 6x Pro Bowl

Cousins (2021-2023): 66.8%, 11,099 yds, 7.3 y/a, 80 td, 26 int, 98.7 rating, 25-16 record
Wilson (2021-2023): 63.8%, 9,707 yds, 7.3 y/a, 67 td, 25 int, 94.6 rating, 17-27 record

In other words, statistically it's very close (edge to Cousins more recently), and if you think of Cousins as a better character or locker room guy than Wilson is, or is someone who's easier to deal with, I can totally see the preference. Mayfield not so much.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I know people don't like the guy on a personal level, but I'm really trying to wrap my head around why anyone would want Cousins or Mayfield over Russell Wilson from a cost perspective, or a football perspective.

You wouldn't. Also Cousins isn't coming here and Mayfield is unlikely to hit FA.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Wasn't Cousins lighting it up (ish?) in Minnesota before the injury? Didn't Baker have a pretty solid season with Tampa? And, in addition to the dick-ish-ness, isn't Russell viewed as kind of washed at this point?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Cousins (2015-2023): 67.6%, 36,441 yds, 7.6 y/a, 252 td, 91 int, 99.9 rating, 74-60 record, 4x Pro Bowl
Wilson (2015-2023): 65.1%, 33,703 yds, 7.6 y/a, 262 td, 80 int, 100.4 rating, 79-60 record, 6x Pro Bowl

Cousins (2021-2023): 66.8%, 11,099 yds, 7.3 y/a, 80 td, 26 int, 98.7 rating, 25-16 record
Wilson (2021-2023): 63.8%, 9,707 yds, 7.3 y/a, 67 td, 25 int, 94.6 rating, 17-27 record

In other words, statistically it's very close (edge to Cousins more recently), and if you think of Cousins as a better character or locker room guy than Wilson is, or is someone who's easier to deal with, I can totally see the preference. Mayfield not so much.

sure, but Wilson would make basically no money Cousins will be one of the highest paid players in the league.

 

[BaseballJones]

sure, but Wilson would make basically no money Cousins will be one of the highest paid players in the league.

For sure. But the comment was, "I'm really trying to wrap my head around why anyone would want Cousins or Mayfield over Russell Wilson from a cost perspective, or a football perspective" - I was just addressing the football side of it.

Wilson for $5 million vs. Cousins for $40 million is an obvious slam dunk for Wilson.

 

[BaseballJones]

Wasn't Cousins lighting it up (ish?) in Minnesota before the injury? Didn't Baker have a pretty solid season with Tampa? And, in addition to the dick-ish-ness, isn't Russell viewed as kind of washed at this point?

I mean, Russell Wilson this year: 66.4%, 3,070 yds, 26 td, 8 int, 98.0 rating, 341 rush yds, 3 td

If the Patriots got that out of their QB this year, they'd have won 10-11 games.

 

[Auger34]

It’s still pretty early in the process and it seems like Daniels range is very fluid right now.
IMO, he will end up solidifying himself as a top 3 pick but it’s entirely possible that as teams watch more film and we get a better idea of what teams actually believe that he ends up in more of the 8-12 range

Selfishly, I hope he absolutely crushed the pre-draft process and ends up looking like a slam dunk top 3 pick. That would be ideal for the Pats

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Cousins (2015-2023): 67.6%, 36,441 yds, 7.6 y/a, 252 td, 91 int, 99.9 rating, 74-60 record, 4x Pro Bowl
Wilson (2015-2023): 65.1%, 33,703 yds, 7.6 y/a, 262 td, 80 int, 100.4 rating, 79-60 record, 6x Pro Bowl

Cousins (2021-2023): 66.8%, 11,099 yds, 7.3 y/a, 80 td, 26 int, 98.7 rating, 25-16 record
Wilson (2021-2023): 63.8%, 9,707 yds, 7.3 y/a, 67 td, 25 int, 94.6 rating, 17-27 record

In other words, statistically it's very close (edge to Cousins more recently), and if you think of Cousins as a better character or locker room guy than Wilson is, or is someone who's easier to deal with, I can totally see the preference. Mayfield not so much.

As I noted earlier in the thread:

Career numbers:

Cousins:

Dome: 69.27%, 115tds, 31ints, 105.8 rating, 32-23 record
Outdoors: 65.38%, 138tds, 70ints, 93.6 rating, 43-41-2

Wilson:

Dome: 64.8%, 21tds, 13ints, 91.6 rating, 4-12 record
Outdoors: 64.73%, 275tds, 82ints, 100.8 rating, 95-56

Kirk Cousins is great with Justin Jefferson and Stephon Diggs and Adam Thielen and Hockenson playing in the climate controlled track meets. But we here in New England don't play in those stadiums regularly. Russell Wilson, like Rodgers and Brady, has proven himself capable of playing in any weather, and he's like $40 million per year cheaper than Cousins.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I mean, Russell Wilson this year: 66.4%, 3,070 yds, 26 td, 8 int, 98.0 rating, 341 rush yds, 3 td

If the Patriots got that out of their QB this year, they'd have won 10-11 games.

The Chiefs won 10 games this year, and didn't get those numbers from Mahomes in the regular season.

 

[BaseballJones]

As I noted earlier in the thread:

Career numbers:

Cousins:

Dome: 69.27%, 115tds, 31ints, 105.8 rating, 32-23 record
Outdoors: 65.38%, 138tds, 70ints, 93.6 rating, 43-41-2

Wilson:

Dome: 64.8%, 21tds, 13ints, 91.6 rating, 4-12 record
Outdoors: 64.73%, 275tds, 82ints, 100.8 rating, 95-56

Kirk Cousins is great with Justin Jefferson and Stephon Diggs and Adam Thielen and Hockenson playing in the climate controlled track meets. But we here in New England don't play in those stadiums regularly. Russell Wilson, like Rodgers and Brady, has proven himself capable of playing in any weather, and he's like $40 million per year cheaper than Cousins.

You don't have to work hard to convince me that Wilson with a cheap contract is much, much better than Cousins on an expensive contract. I have talked before in this forum about the possible idea of drafting MHJ and tackles and picking a QB later on in the draft, while signing Wilson to a 2 or 3 year deal at low dollars, might help this team improve a ton right away.

 

[jtn46]

sure, but Wilson would make basically no money Cousins will be one of the highest paid players in the league.

Pats have money. If in this situation they value Wilson higher that’s cool but if they like another more expensive QB they should just pony up. I watched a lot of Broncos games and he looked bad, @j-man can probably shed light on him.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Pats have money. If in this situation they value Wilson higher that’s cool but if they like another more expensive QB they should just pony up. I watched a lot of Broncos games and he looked bad, @j-man can probably shed light on him.

He got that roster to 8-9, including 5 straight wins against the Packers, Chiefs, Bills, Vikings and Browns. In their 9 losses, the defense gave up 17, 35, 70, 31, 19, 22, 42, 26 and 27.

I would argue that he had a brutal group of skill position players around him, and yet, when it counted he showed up. He lead the NFL with 4 4th quarter comebacks and 4 come from behind wins. He wasn't peak Russell Wilson, but I wouldn't say he looked bad by any means. I just think that was the ceiling for that roster.

 

[67YAZ]

I think so. If not taking QB at 3, trade back for haul and take BPA all through the draft imo.

The team I would try to ground work for a trade with is the Giants at 6. They very well may be looking for the next QB and could groom one behind Jones for a bit.

Moving from 3 to 6 could net something like 39 & 108 or a 2025 2nd & 70.

This would keep the Pats in range for a top tackle, WR, or edge at 6 and capital to move back up into the first for another impact player with a 5 year contract.

 

[Bowser]

Let's also see what they do in free agency which is before the draft. The hope is that they take care of at least one of the tackle spots in free agency.

The problem is that besides Jonah Williams, there's not likely to be many OTs on the free agent market. And this year Williams had a PFF grade of 59.1, good for 82nd among all OTs.

On the other hand, I think it was Mel Kiper (sorry!) who observed that there's nine elite offensive players in the draft -- 3 QBs, 2 OTs, 3 WRs & 1 TE. To me, this says let's trade back, pick up at least a #2 (and perhaps a 2025 #1), and take one of these nine. And if Daniels or MHJ blows up, all the better for us in this trade-back scenario.

I'm also thinking that at least one of McCarthy, Nix, and Penix will be there in Round 2. McCarthy really did not impress the last few weeks of the season; Penix has had season-ending injuries in four of the past six years; and Nix may be little better than a jacked up Zappe. If we can stomach Year 1 Mac Jones, we can stomach one of these three, probably.

 

[jtn46]

He got that roster to 8-9, including 5 straight wins against the Packers, Chiefs, Bills, Vikings and Browns. In their 9 losses, the defense gave up 17, 35, 70, 31, 19, 22, 42, 26 and 27.

I would argue that he had a brutal group of skill position players around him, and yet, when it counted he showed up. He lead the NFL with 4 4th quarter comebacks and 4 come from behind wins. He wasn't peak Russell Wilson, but I wouldn't say he looked bad by any means. I just think that was the ceiling for that roster.

But our roster will be worse, maybe minus MHJ in this scenario.

I’m open-minded if the Pats see something but I don’t think him being cheap should be a big factor for a team with $82 million in cap space. It’s ok to spend money on a QB.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

But our roster will be worse, maybe minus MHJ in this scenario.

I’m open-minded if the Pats see something but I don’t think him being cheap should be a big factor for a team with $82 million in cap space. It’s ok to spend money on a QB.

It's ok to spend money on the right QB, that's for sure. But I don't see 20+ million in additional value for Mayfield or 40+ million to Cousins over Wilson. I'm not even sure either of them are better than Wilson.

They would now have all of their draft picks and that $80mil to spend around Wilson, and could quickly turn the roster into a better one than Denver had this season, very easily. IMO, they're already just as good at RB, would be better at WR if they got MHJ and Bourne came back healthy and while I'm not a Henry fan, he's certainly a better receiver than Adam Trautman. That would really mean using draft picks and free agent money on offensive line and voila, it's not that bad a situation (assuming you get the right guys).

Now that said, it's not the route I want them to take, because I think any of the top 3 QB's in the class is the way you go with the #3 pick, but if they really don't like the 3rd available (assuming the first 2 go 1/2) and they want MHJ, I think there is an avenue to make that work and make the team competitive quickly. Moreso than paying huge dollars to guys like Cousins and Mayfield.

 

[Auger34]

As I noted earlier in the thread:

Career numbers:

Cousins:

Dome: 69.27%, 115tds, 31ints, 105.8 rating, 32-23 record
Outdoors: 65.38%, 138tds, 70ints, 93.6 rating, 43-41-2

Wilson:

Dome: 64.8%, 21tds, 13ints, 91.6 rating, 4-12 record
Outdoors: 64.73%, 275tds, 82ints, 100.8 rating, 95-56

Kirk Cousins is great with Justin Jefferson and Stephon Diggs and Adam Thielen and Hockenson playing in the climate controlled track meets. But we here in New England don't play in those stadiums regularly. Russell Wilson, like Rodgers and Brady, has proven himself capable of playing in any weather, and he's like $40 million per year cheaper than Cousins.

My biggest issue with Russ is that Sean Payton, who knows a lot about QBs, basically ran him out of town. There may have been some extenuating circumstances there but it doesn't make me feel confident signing Russ to play with a coaching group far less adept than Payton

 

[Deathofthebambino]

My biggest issue with Russ is that Sean Payton, who knows a lot about QBs, basically ran him out of town. There may have been some extenuating circumstances there but it doesn't make me feel confident signing Russ to play with a coaching group far less adept than Payton

This reservation, I can understand. Like I said, folks don't seem to like him, both inside and outside the locker room, for whatever reason.

For me, winning fixes a LOT of shit, so I've never worried too much about the reports and stories about that kind of stuff, so I may not be the best arbiter of that. I will say this though, given their cap issues, the fact that Jarrett Stidham (or whoever they draft at 12 in June) is going to be their QB, I don't think Payton is long for that job in Denver. This was the first time the franchise had more than 7 wins since 2016, and I'd still rather be in the Pats situation than the one facing them.

 

[Cellar-Door]

My biggest issue with Russ is that Sean Payton, who knows a lot about QBs, basically ran him out of town. There may have been some extenuating circumstances there but it doesn't make me feel confident signing Russ to play with a coaching group far less adept than Payton

Does Sean Payton? I mean he loved Taysom Hill. I think the real answer is that Payton is a good designer and caller of plays, but also a control freak and asshole and Russ plays out of structure a lot and is also an asshole

 

[chilidawg]

I'm also thinking that at least one of McCarthy, Nix, and Penix will be there in Round 2. McCarthy really did not impress the last few weeks of the season; Penix has had season-ending injuries in four of the past six years; and Nix may be little better than a jacked up Zappe. If we can stomach Year 1 Mac Jones, we can stomach one of these three, probably.

You're not really doing a great sales job for this approach, but I don't disagree. QB is the most important slot for sure, but I see this as a 2-3 year rebuild and not a one year fix. There's lots of holes to fill and they're not gonna get them all this year. If the 3rd QB isn't good enough, going MHJ or trading down to 8 allows you to at least fix many of the other holes.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

The thing about MHJ which isn’t getting talked about enough is that most WR’s have a limited shelf life and as much as people talk about “rookie QB contract window”, elite WR’s are making massive money these days. Jefferson and Chase are likely to end up with 25-30M cap hits.

I don’t see the purpose in kicking the can down the road at QB and going with a WR who historically speaking isn’t going to help you win games without a QB, and wasting his prime athletic years. By the time you sort out the QB position (find a guy and give him a year or two to break out), Harrison is going to be getting close to the end of his rookie deal.

You need to either get “your guy” or load up on ammo to do so next year if they fall in love with Ewers or whomever.

trading down to 8-11, taking a tackle, grabbing a 1st rounder next year and some other picks, at least gives you a better path to a total overhaul if you’re not sold on Maye/Daniels.

Of course, given next years presumptive QB prospects, im not sure a 2025 first is going to help a lot in the quest for a franchise QB where nobody is an obviously better prospect than Maye or Daniels but (as we saw with Daniels himself) that could change. But if next year’s QB crop is like the Pickett class, then what? Keep kicking the can down the road?

Id also posit that if you don’t like the top 3 but do like someone in Tier 2 (Nix, McCarthy, Penix), you need to take them in the first and not hope you’re the only team that likes them. It’s a QB desperate league and for every Levis who slides out, there’s a guy who some team will jump into the end of the first round to grab (Bridgewater, Jackson) or some team will draft earlier than expected (Ponder).

 

[NextBigThing8184]

It's ok to spend money on the right QB, that's for sure. But I don't see 20+ million in additional value for Mayfield or 40+ million to Cousins over Wilson. I'm not even sure either of them are better than Wilson.

They would now have all of their draft picks and that $80mil to spend around Wilson, and could quickly turn the roster into a better one than Denver had this season, very easily. IMO, they're already just as good at RB, would be better at WR if they got MHJ and Bourne came back healthy and while I'm not a Henry fan, he's certainly a better receiver than Adam Trautman. That would really mean using draft picks and free agent money on offensive line and voila, it's not that bad a situation (assuming you get the right guys).

Now that said, it's not the route I want them to take, because I think any of the top 3 QB's in the class is the way you go with the #3 pick, but if they really don't like the 3rd available (assuming the first 2 go 1/2) and they want MHJ, I think there is an avenue to make that work and make the team competitive quickly. Moreso than paying huge dollars to guys like Cousins and Mayfield.

I’d agree with this insofar as MHJ is a win now player. He makes no sense as the first part of a multi year rebuild since his value is tied to the guy throwing him the ball.

Wilson is the only veteran QB who makes sense given the offsets in his Denver contract. Sign Wilson, sign Ridley (or another WR), keep Dugger and Henry, franchise or re-sign Onwenu, still don’t have a LT (maybe round 2 but can’t go into the draft with a big hole there) draft MHJ and try to compete right away.

It’s not the course of action I want to see, and I don’t like Wilson, but it’s the only MHJ scenario that makes sense.

At least Wilson, unlike Cousins, gives you enough cap space to figure out the tackle, WR and defense with veteran options. 80M will go quickly when you have no TE, no tackles, need a safety, depth on defense (especially in the front 7), need at least one quality veteran WR and a bunch of other guys who will eat up cap space 2-6M at a time.